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Date of 2018 JAXA SIE maximum will be...

March 2-4
16 (23.5%)
March 5-7
10 (14.7%)
March 8-10
8 (11.8%)
March 11-13
9 (13.2%)
March 14-16
10 (14.7%)
March 17-19
3 (4.4%)
March 20-22
5 (7.4%)
March 23-25
3 (4.4%)
March 26-28
3 (4.4%)
March 29-31
1 (1.5%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 06, 2018, 09:04:03 PM

Author Topic: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?  (Read 16172 times)

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #100 on: March 19, 2018, 04:46:41 AM »
Not so fast...
ADS updated with the March 17 numbers "sometime": 13,891,190 km². A new max.

Edit; and while going back to ADS there were the March 18 numbers: 13,833,573 km². Graph not updated.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 04:52:13 AM by Sleepy »
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Juan C. García

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #101 on: March 19, 2018, 05:33:28 AM »
Hi!

On march 17th, JAXA 2018 register 13,891,190 km2, which is now the max for 2018.
Also, it is 12,903 km2 above the 2017 max, so 2018 is not the lowest on record anymore. But it is still under the 2015 and 2016 max, so 2018 is now the second lowest max on record.

On march 18th, JAXA 2018 register 13,833,573 km2, an important drop of 57,617 km2. In my opinion, it starts to be difficult to have a max above 2015 (13.94M km2), that now it is the third lowest on record.

Congrats Neven! Max on March 17th! And also on the range you voted!  ;)
We just have to wait some days, to confirm the max and open the melting season thread.

PS: At least 2 times on the year, I become addicted to JAXA! Please give me my daily dosis, JAXA!  ;D
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 05:53:59 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #102 on: March 19, 2018, 09:02:11 AM »
That's it, baby! Keep going down now!  :D

I may, finally, finally, get the max right for once. Fingers crossed. I'm also itching to open that melting season thread.
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Hautbois

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #103 on: March 19, 2018, 09:10:23 AM »
Chart update. Currently imitating an aquatic megacryptid.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 09:15:56 AM by Hautbois »

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #104 on: March 19, 2018, 09:23:47 AM »
That's it, baby! Keep going down now!  :D

I may, finally, finally, get the max right for once. Fingers crossed. I'm also itching to open that melting season thread.
Just Do It!  ;)
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uniquorn

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #105 on: March 19, 2018, 02:24:12 PM »
Chart update. Currently imitating an aquatic megacryptid.
nice:)
Your search - aquatic megacryptid - did not match any documents.

Hautbois

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #106 on: March 19, 2018, 05:08:06 PM »
Chart update. Currently imitating an aquatic megacryptid.
nice:)
Your search - aquatic megacryptid - did not match any documents.

Unsurprising as it was a silly coinage of mine this morning. Either way, think Nessie, Ogopogo etc.


Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #107 on: March 20, 2018, 04:48:50 AM »
Not so fast...
ADS updated with the March 17 numbers "sometime": 13,891,190 km². A new max.

Edit; and while going back to ADS there were the March 18 numbers: 13,833,573 km². Graph not updated.

Is this it ? Will Neven pull the lever and let the 2018 melt comments flood out?

Two more drops and I certainly will. Expect the 2018 melting season thread to open on Wednesday.  :)

It's time, Neven!  ;)  Ah well, maybe you'll wait until tomorrow then.

March 19: 13,761,282 km²
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Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #108 on: March 20, 2018, 08:11:57 AM »
ECMWF 850mb temp deviations March 20 00z.
Forgot to crop it so you'll have to click on it to animate.
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Stephan

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #109 on: March 20, 2018, 08:36:16 PM »
Just look at the last three days of March around the Okhotsk Sea - it seems as if a short very warm and probably windy period is in the pipeline - will this be the start of the melting season there?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #110 on: March 21, 2018, 04:44:34 AM »
The End: 13,713,053 km²  :'(
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gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #111 on: March 21, 2018, 05:05:04 AM »
The End: 13,713,053 km²  :'(
Or:
The Beginning  :)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #112 on: March 21, 2018, 05:10:13 AM »
The End: 13,713,053 km²  :'(

Surely...

On March 20th, the JAXA 2018 has 13,713,053 km2, a daily drop of -48,229 km2.
So now, the difference between the March 17th max and today is of -178,137 km2
The melt season is officially starting.

Good bye, 2017/2018 freezing season!   :'(     ;D

Today second lowest, even with 2015. Seems that tomorrow will be lower than 2015.
And maybe in a week, 2018 will be the lowest...  ???
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #113 on: March 21, 2018, 05:25:03 AM »
The End: 13,713,053 km²  :'(
Or:
The Beginning  :)
Yeah, but not for this thread. ;)
Where's the real fun in watching the Arctic loose ~10,000,000 km² until September?
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #114 on: March 21, 2018, 05:43:16 AM »
The End: 13,713,053 km²  :'(
Or:
The Beginning  :)
Yeah, but not for this thread. ;)
Where's the real fun in watching the Arctic loose ~10,000,000 km² until September?
That is why I now have a table fed by NSIDC data for each of the Arctic seas. I can watch the ice disappear in each one by one as the season progresses. So which will be empty of sea ice first? By such things I am kept amused.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #115 on: March 21, 2018, 05:50:28 AM »
My comment was meant in a much broader view, gerontocrat.

Q: Why was the Saami herder given an umbrella?
A: Because of the rain, dear.
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gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #116 on: March 21, 2018, 06:07:53 AM »
My comment was meant in a much broader view, gerontocrat.

Q: Why was the Saami herder given an umbrella?
A: Because of the rain, dear.
I'm going back to bed.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #117 on: March 21, 2018, 06:44:43 AM »
Todays temperature forecast for the Reindeers is somewhat different from the March temperature record; -45,8°C.
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be cause

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #118 on: March 21, 2018, 10:06:13 AM »
Having also chosen March 17th , do I get to share the trophy with Neven ? .. b.c.  :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Neven

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #119 on: March 21, 2018, 10:10:19 AM »
Having also chosen March 17th , do I get to share the trophy with Neven ? .. b.c.  :)

Sure, and there's a third person as well. 0/3=0.  ;)

The 2018 melting season thread is now open for business.
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Hautbois

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #120 on: March 21, 2018, 09:55:52 PM »
There we are.

Neven

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #121 on: March 21, 2018, 10:26:15 PM »
Thanks, HB!
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Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #122 on: March 22, 2018, 06:18:40 AM »
Having also chosen March 17th , do I get to share the trophy with Neven ? .. b.c.  :)

Sure, and there's a third person as well. 0/3=0.  ;)

The 2018 melting season thread is now open for business.
Congratulations to you both! And anonymous.

Ending with another bad joke.  ;D
Q: What noise wakes you up at the North Pole around March 18?
A: The crack of dawn!
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JKDMaineUSA

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #123 on: March 23, 2018, 12:12:43 AM »
Having also chosen March 17th , do I get to share the trophy with Neven ? .. b.c.  :)

Sure, and there's a third person as well. 0/3=0.  ;)

The 2018 melting season thread is now open for business.
Congratulations to you both! And anonymous.

Ending with another bad joke.  ;D
Q: What noise wakes you up at the North Pole around March 18?
A: The crack of dawn!

Anonymous no more, it be me .. Whoever committed to the date first should have the prize ..  ;)

oren

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #124 on: March 23, 2018, 03:41:49 AM »
Anonymous no more, it be me .. Whoever committed to the date first should have the prize ..  ;)
Well done JKD.

Neven

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #125 on: March 23, 2018, 11:03:07 PM »
Short blog post on the ASIB: The 2018 melting season has started

Quote
I don't mind, as I correctly guessed both this maximum's date as well as the final number on Arctic Sea Ice Forum polls, probably for the first (and last) time in my life as an Arctic observer, as the maximum is incredibly difficult to pinpoint.

 ;D
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