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Koop in VA

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1050 on: February 22, 2018, 11:01:28 PM »
DMI updates its 80o+ North image at 19.00 hours on the same day. So here is the image for today, the 22nd February.
Looking back at previous years, at 260 kelvin it looks like a record for day 53 of the year.

I went back and took a look at the last 30 years of temp records from DMI and it appears that there were only 2 times where we broke the 260 barrier earlier in the year than we did this year.

I was surprised to find that the first day of the year in 2000 (and several after that) had temps above 260 k.  And in 2006, around day 30 there were several days above 260.  So day 53 would be the third earliest in the last 30 years (and likely for a much longer period of time than that).

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1051 on: February 22, 2018, 11:32:47 PM »
DMI updates its 80o+ North image at 19.00 hours on the same day. So here is the image for today, the 22nd February.
Looking back at previous years, at 260 kelvin it looks like a record for day 53 of the year.

I went back and took a look at the last 30 years of temp records from DMI and it appears that there were only 2 times where we broke the 260 barrier earlier in the year than we did this year.

I was surprised to find that the first day of the year in 2000 (and several after that) had temps above 260 k.  And in 2006, around day 30 there were several days above 260.  So day 53 would be the third earliest in the last 30 years (and likely for a much longer period of time than that).
Looking at the DMI graph on average the last week in Feb is the coldest. So to hve a 260 temp at day 53 is more unusual than to have it at an earlier date ?
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1052 on: February 23, 2018, 06:07:22 AM »
DMI updates its 80o+ North image at 19.00 hours on the same day. So here is the image for today, the 22nd February.
Looking back at previous years, at 260 kelvin it looks like a record for day 53 of the year.

I went back and took a look at the last 30 years of temp records from DMI and it appears that there were only 2 times where we broke the 260 barrier earlier in the year than we did this year.

I was surprised to find that the first day of the year in 2000 (and several after that) had temps above 260 k.  And in 2006, around day 30 there were several days above 260.  So day 53 would be the third earliest in the last 30 years (and likely for a much longer period of time than that).
Looking at the DMI graph on average the last week in Feb is the coldest. So to hve a 260 temp at day 53 is more unusual than to have it at an earlier date ?
I think in some ways, yes, as earlier, the hemisphere as a whole hasn't had as much time to cool off.  By the time we get to day 53, we're 63 days past the solstice, with a lot more heat dumped out of the mid-latitudes. 

This year however, there is still *plenty* of heat - enough so that 2 days ago we had 22C temperatures as far north as the US/Canadian border on the east coast.

And the heat in the oceans writ large is still high, and that's the primary driver of things heat-wise right now.
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1053 on: February 23, 2018, 09:49:46 AM »
... with less than four weeks till equinox, when heat loss definitely comes to a halt (leveling off fast already).
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romett1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1054 on: February 23, 2018, 11:28:45 AM »
Recent temp forecast for Sunday. + 4.5 °C for northern Greenland, slightly less for Lincoln Sea. And not to mention +1.9 °C currently there (earth.nullschool).

meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1055 on: February 23, 2018, 12:21:47 PM »
Recent temp forecast for Sunday. + 4.5 °C for northern Greenland, slightly less for Lincoln Sea. And not to mention +1.9 °currently there (earth.nullschool).

This clearly supports the IR Satellite Images showing open Water above Greenland.
Very, very bad.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1056 on: February 23, 2018, 05:26:54 PM »
The images below show export through the CAA to Baffin Bay from Oct 1st to Feb 22nd. It has been surprisingly active for winter. Note a large floe coming down the Austin branch of Byam Martin Channel from the Arctic Ocean has blocked the main Parry Channel from Nov 4th (day 308) on, perhaps backed from an ice jam above small islands west of Lowther below the junction. Parry and Nares "compete' for space in the western bay, with Parry export pushing Nares eastward from Feb 03 (day 034) on. Early clearing of western Lancaster Sound could expedite opening of a Northwest Passage that could lead to loss of thicker coastal Arctic Ocean ice.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 07:18:12 PM by A-Team »

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1057 on: February 23, 2018, 06:24:36 PM »
The mp4 below shows the wind and temperature at the entrance to the Fram over the 23-28 February time frame. The northward surge of warm moist air is not conducive to ice thickening nor export. Ice pack motion will again be 'reverse TransPolar Drift' adding to its net backwardness (and conceptual irrelevance) for the year but turning pole-divergent towards the end of the forecast period.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1058 on: February 23, 2018, 06:51:10 PM »
Sea of Okhotsk. Feb1 to 22. Amsr2

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1059 on: February 23, 2018, 08:28:45 PM »
I have seen the like of the image below so many times over the last month, - the two cyclones each side of the Bering Strait and all quiet in the Chukchi Sea to the north, but not a clue if its the winter normal.

« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 10:59:38 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1060 on: February 23, 2018, 09:38:12 PM »
these are likely the most significant days of the freezing/melting season. I know dmi80 covers a small area .. but today it is 20'C (36F) warmer than last year . As the next few days look even warmer this is a significant departure . The cold(er) plunge that was expected to follow may not be coming .  bc

ps .. a big thank you to A-team , Uniquorn , and all you other contributors , old and new , and Neven ! and to everyone in the World for making times so exciting ...
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JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1061 on: February 23, 2018, 10:36:54 PM »
This is complete insanity. Above freezing temps forecast across the pole and most of the way across the CAB. It's only a couple days in the future.  And it's not even that far from the current situation with above freezing temps on the Greenland north coast.

If these anomalies keep on like this...  I just don't know. The scary thing is that so far *they have been*. I can't remember the last time I looked at CCI-reanalyzer and it had a nowcast with a < 5  degree C anomaly.

There's a few more weeks before the rising sun will "lock in" these losses, and the arctic will really start to lose its ability to vent heat to space.

CCI-reanalyzer has also kept saying that these anomalies will come down, but they haven't.  Somewhere upthread I recall somebody saying how GFS forecast it would be over by February 20.... That forecast definitely didn't verify.  It's not one warm system or one day of warm temps.  In the DMI graph it looks almost like spring started 70+ days early.

Does anybody think we'll get a real dip (that lasts a week+) back towards the climate average before winter ends? A chance for a last gasp freezeup?

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1062 on: February 23, 2018, 11:15:14 PM »
Does anybody think we'll get a real dip (that lasts a week+) back towards the climate average before winter ends? A chance for a last gasp freezeup?

At this point would it matter?  The "normal" for 80N is about to start up.

The Ocean has spoken, and the air is a nice toy.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1063 on: February 23, 2018, 11:17:40 PM »
This is getting really hard to ignore:

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1064 on: February 23, 2018, 11:29:36 PM »
This is getting really hard to ignore:
I looked at previous years back to 2000. Nothing like it at this coldest week at 80+. Would not be surprised to see upward change at least for next 2, maybe three days.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1065 on: February 24, 2018, 01:56:43 AM »
This is getting really hard to ignore:
I looked at previous years back to 2000. Nothing like it at this coldest week at 80+. Would not be surprised to see upward change at least for next 2, maybe three days.

Nor I.  Sad perhaps, well, excited and sad....but not suprised.  WACCy weather is upon us and my only real question is whether the ice leaves next Summer, or NEXT WINTER.

romett1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1066 on: February 24, 2018, 09:58:27 AM »
It's amazing to watch how all this heat is travelling from Fram Strait to Chukchi Sea. And Mar 1 - Mar 3 forecast - it seems like new "heatwave" is starting to travel all the way back. Images: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1067 on: February 24, 2018, 11:17:13 AM »
The DMI 80N temp is having a marked effect on FDDs as well:
Compare, compare, compare

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1068 on: February 24, 2018, 01:05:44 PM »
North of Greenland Feb1-23 amsr2. Thanks to uni-hamburg.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1069 on: February 24, 2018, 01:28:17 PM »
Looks like Game Over.
Prepare for Nuclear Winter.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1070 on: February 24, 2018, 02:00:53 PM »
Snow on mobile ice in Chukchi.
uni-hamburg amsr2 feb24.
nasa worldview aqua-modis feb19-24.

Sourabh

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1071 on: February 24, 2018, 02:40:51 PM »
I checked DMI graph and it seems quite odd. What kind of 'dipole' (if one can use this term here) is that? Is this pressure anomaly significant in anyway? Can there be any kind of warning/learning opportunity here?



As far as I know I do not remember seeing this kind of pressure anomaly since I started following this blog.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1072 on: February 24, 2018, 03:11:01 PM »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1073 on: February 24, 2018, 04:01:00 PM »
Climate Reanalyzer Forecast: next 5 days beginning Feb 24 2018 NCEP GFS 5 Day max temp forecast - is hopefully wrong - but very sobering for this time of year. There are just some things you wish you did not have to know.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1074 on: February 24, 2018, 04:13:31 PM »
GFS now forecasting 961hPa on the pacific side for monday.

uni-hamburg amsr2 feb1-23 and nullschool forecast for feb26.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1075 on: February 24, 2018, 05:35:02 PM »
Here are the areas open water NE of Morris Jesup for February. Near an irregular coastline, the 3.125 km UH AMSR2 has significantly better resolution. Most of the sea ice concentration is 100% so colored yellow here to emphasize the intermediate ice. Open water can be color-picked too; here it is replaced here with green, again to it from distinguish intermediate ice.

Ascat doesn't really have this kind of resolution but shows ice movement better. Note the lift-off of the Lincoln Sea ice reserve in the last frame (blue arrow). Given the prevailing winds, this could be the beginning of its demise.

UB SMOS thin ice detects the event fairly well and shows plausible values. However the real nature of the ice here is quite complicated and in rapid flux.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2018, 08:43:10 PM by A-Team »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1076 on: February 24, 2018, 07:56:29 PM »
North of Greenland Feb1-23 amsr2. Thanks to uni-hamburg.

Watching that animation, I can draw some small comfort as the open sea water slowly refreeze when the sea ice decides to lift off from the Greenland coast but the ice movement here is simply ridiculous.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1077 on: February 24, 2018, 08:04:24 PM »
Looking at this animation and what we are seeing here is becoming the new normal, the northern hemisphere is beginning to behave like a lava lamp which, if you grew up in the late 60's in America and imbibed in things that altered your state of consciousness, you would understand. Large masses of mid latitude heat builds up and then bubbles up to the north pole, displacing cold air masses to the mid latitudes where they, in turn, warm up and do the same.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1078 on: February 24, 2018, 08:10:09 PM »
Note the lift-off of the Lincoln Sea ice reserve in the last frame (blue arrow). Given the prevailing winds, this could be the beginning of its demise.

And with that heat rushing in from the North Atlantic along the northern coast of Greenland, it looks as if the Nares will remain open for business throughout the year, not unprecedented but unusual.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1079 on: February 24, 2018, 08:10:51 PM »
I am so old, I remember when winters were boring.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1080 on: February 24, 2018, 08:12:38 PM »
At this point in the freeze season, I am left hoping for a cloudy cool summer.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1081 on: February 24, 2018, 08:15:35 PM »
The mp4 below shows the last 100 days of ice moving down Baffin Bay (from the Nares and Parry channels) and down the Fram with the east Greenland current. This is a difficult environment for Ascat with so much of the scene either land, open water and passing weather, so the UH AMSR2 fixed land and daily open water masks are used to cut the image down to just ice (though AMSR itself can have weather issues early in the freeze season).

As this transported ice melts out, it brings cold fresh buoyant water to the North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that is a potential concern for the AMOC. However in recent years none of the ice came from the Beaufort Gyre via TransPolar Drift, not one floe.

In fact this year the Fram ice mostly originated in early November in the Kara and Laptev seas. For that reason, brine exclusion has not preceded very far. Between brine channels within the ice and extruded above to the ice surface, the melt water will have significantly reduced salinity but not be fresh.

As the floes continue to hug the coast until they (or rather their melt) reach the tip of Greenland) the Irminger current has taken matters back up north along the west coast of Greenland and then back south on the other side. We can't monitor this with floe trajectories but in the summer calved bergs from Jakobshavn on reveal directions. Thus there is no support here for the idea that ice from the Arctic Ocean reaches the central North Atlantic overturning zone.

Nares ice is predominantly older thicker MYI but the volume is a tenth or so of the Fram; Parry ice is  less still and mostly FYI formed within the CAA but sometimes includes garlic press MYI ice from the Arctic Ocean. Again, Ascat floe trajectories establish that none of this ice reaching Baffin Bay originated in the Beaufort Gyre during 2017-18, not a single floe. Quite a bit of Baffin Bay ice in the mp4 originates in situ only to melt further south.

Surface ocean currents are effectively the same as surface ice currents according to principal Arctic oceanographer R Woodgate (as ice keels induce them). However most of the water circulates in the Arctic Ocean at a deeper level (~300m) which is not revealed by floe motion nor necessarily parallel to it. Exit volumes along the CAA (125 m western Lancaster), Nares (220 m), Bering Strait (53 m) are somewhat limited by sill heights as only the Fram has a deep sill (2600 m). However these sills primarily impede denser saltier water leaving rather than the more buoyant fresher water nearer the surface.

https://tinyurl.com/y8crdjnh neat poster from 2010 by J Su et al
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrc.20330/full 2013 CAA flows by C Wekerele et al
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 03:04:59 AM by A-Team »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1082 on: February 24, 2018, 08:30:00 PM »
I can draw some small comfort as the open sea water slowly refreeze

I would prefer it if you were more comfortable...
Today from Nasa Worldview Band15 Brightness Temperature
 

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1083 on: February 24, 2018, 08:36:05 PM »
Watching that animation, I can draw some small comfort as the open sea water slowly refreeze when the sea ice decides to lift off from the Greenland coast but the ice movement here is simply ridiculous.
Yes I noticed the refreeze, even amidst the abnormal heat and waves. Perhaps the high winds are pulling more heat out of the ocean and causing more refreeze here? The ice movement *export* has also been significant out the Nares. I know the Nares averages about one tenth the volume of Fram, but it's been working overtime when it's usually dormant this time of year. Notice on the last day (24th) how the ice reverses direction in a feeble effort to put humpty dumpty back together again. This ice and ice in surrounding areas will be less able to handle future melting mechanisms and will be even more mobile.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1084 on: February 24, 2018, 09:28:34 PM »
Yes I noticed the refreeze
Nice animation.
Nullshool has had that area at -24C so we could expect refreeze.
Morris Jessup -3C, maybe not today.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2018, 09:35:39 PM by uniquorn »

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1085 on: February 24, 2018, 10:05:50 PM »
Thanks, i would expect refreeze as well, just wondering if the higher winds, with air temperature remaining equal, increase the likelihood of refreeze. I know the winds also draw up warmer water from depth, just trying to understand all dynamics at play.

For some on the ground perspective via Zack:

Cape Morris Jesup (#Greenland's northernmost observation station) is now reporting temperatures well above freezing today... +6.1°C at the latest observation! Crazy!

Station is provided by @dmidk at http://www.dmi.dk/groenland/maalinger/vejret-lige-nu/stations/vis/4301.

Edit: Also according to null school over the past couple days the surface air temps in the ocean around cape morris jesup have been hovering closer to -2C -3C.  Oh i see uniquorn, you must be referring to a different refreeze area than i was referring to. I was referring to the area from east Cape Morris Jesup to the Fram.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2018, 10:30:51 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1086 on: February 24, 2018, 10:35:58 PM »
There  is even a little spot that's 30 degree C warmer than average.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1087 on: February 24, 2018, 10:42:11 PM »
I can draw some small comfort as the open sea water slowly refreeze
I would prefer it if you were more comfortable...
Today from Nasa Worldview Band15 Brightness Temperature
And this shows same area, on Mar 17 last year (3 weeks from today's equivalent date).
Wow!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1088 on: February 24, 2018, 11:16:39 PM »
More and more different!
Thanks Ice Sheildz. I hadn't really looked around the dmi site before. As to the dynamics in play, I'm afraid this site has taught me nearly everything I know about the arctic.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1089 on: February 25, 2018, 02:19:11 AM »
Not sure if anyone else on the interwebs picked this up, but as far as i can tell these heat intrusions have already broken the record DMI deviation from mean temp set in the fall of 2016. Data goes back to 1958.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1090 on: February 25, 2018, 02:51:35 AM »
Incredible. Arctic descending into chaos. Wonder what the new stable state will be.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1091 on: February 25, 2018, 04:39:58 AM »
You're assuming there will be a stable state in the foreseeable future.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1092 on: February 25, 2018, 05:46:54 AM »
when you look at the charts for previous years its not the peaks we are recently seeing in the 80+nth mean temps that are the scariest thing IMO. Previous years have had their up jags, but interlaced with down jags that approach the longterm mean. Now there seems to be a new shelf in place below which the temp refuses to fall. If this is a new mode then this forum's days are limited.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1093 on: February 25, 2018, 06:49:29 AM »
2013 was a good "average" Baffin year with a clear view to compare. It would seem that just as Okhotsk may be exacerbating Bering, Baffin is doing the same to Barents/Greenland.

Perhaps the latent heat release from so much ice refreezing in the relative mid-latitudes vs. the stable/retreating boundaries up north is what is driving this worsening contrast? Both Okhotsk and Baffin benefit from direct proximity to cold continental landmasses (including Greenland, the coldest of all, in Baffin's case).

When comparing satellite views, most years have similar-ish storms in the North Atlantic, however 2018's advanced progression has allowed enough heat release to result in the current situation of a major LP curling into Greenland.

It seems to say that with freezing momentum seemingly sustained in both of the aforementioned peripheral seas, March may be a month of great and worsening anomalously ridiculous contrast. Paradoxically, the record strength of the outer-most sea ice is a bad sign for the Arctic Ocean, and we are likely to see some very odd numbers come April Fool's Day that are sadly going to be no joke.

Click the attached GIF to animate. That is a lot of area appearing in 2018 that is not present in any other year since 2000.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1094 on: February 25, 2018, 07:16:28 AM »
There  is even a little spot that's 30 degree C warmer than average.
Your catch came right after(?) a much larger area of 30degC over-temperature which covered about 500+miles by 500+miles area, or ~ 1/6th the size of the High Arctic.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 08:23:05 AM by litesong »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1095 on: February 25, 2018, 07:17:44 AM »
Additionally, it should be noted that the inbound ice re: Baffin/Labrador is quite thick.

http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page2.xhtml?CanID=11091&lang=en&title=East+Coast

^roving around their various regions shows that there is even a large chunk of MYI that made it through Nares that has made substantial southward progress already. With much more of that following suit, Baffin's melt out this year may be quite delayed. If the refreeze shows much more momentum, the Gulf Stream will not collapse, but it will deviate beyond its already irregular form by another substantial degree that we cannot quite anticipate.

With SSTs roasting across the NW North Atlantic, the contrast between Baffin/Labrador and what's traversing off to the south is going to be a recipe ripe for massive cyclonic conflict by the summertime/fall, probably involving tropical entities, and if the next few days are any indicator, Greenland is going to be in the firing line...

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea

litesong

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1096 on: February 25, 2018, 08:21:27 AM »
Present High Arctic Berserker(2)(continuous over-temperatures of the High Arctic), or PHAB(2), or FAB 8)(2)  has risen to its highest temperature(20degC over average) since mid-October of last year, 2017, when the High Arctic still had heat from the summer. Yet, the Highest latitudes of the High Arctic have been in fall & winter darkness for 5+ months. No year in the satellite record has had such a leap in High Arctic(4 million square kilometers) temperature, as has just occurred, during this, the average coldest period of the long High Arctic darkness. Only excess AGW heat, pumped from southern climates can account for such heat, that is powering High Arctic temperatures to such a massive 20degC departure from the norm. FAB 8)(2) has been over-temperature for 190+ straight days, & has a good chance to go well past 200 straight days of existence.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1097 on: February 25, 2018, 08:28:06 AM »
Arctic, could You Please stop behaving in such odd and agonistic ways, you're ruining my hibernation.

Yours, Pmt111500
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

oren

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1098 on: February 25, 2018, 09:02:29 AM »
2013 was a good "average" Baffin year with a clear view to compare. It would seem that just as Okhotsk may be exacerbating Bering, Baffin is doing the same to Barents/Greenland.
This is supported by Wipneus' charts. While Baffin is reaching high, Greenland Sea is very low.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1099 on: February 25, 2018, 09:13:17 AM »
Quote
It would seem that just as Okhotsk may be exacerbating Bering, Baffin is doing the same to Barents/Greenland.

Or vice versa. I think latent heat is a weak hypothesis bbr. Though outbound heat blocking by the cold sstas in those regions could be assisting Arctic bound heat in the waters sliding in below them.
I would advance the hypothesis that a fresh surface water purge similar but possibly larger than the 2016 one is happening in the Beaufort and eastern basin. Coriolis is holding the freshwater being expelled thru Bering and between CAA and Greenland to the right as it heads south, enabling it to flood Okhotsk and Baffin. The animations provided by A-team show the flows pouring prolifically out of the CAA channels both to the east and west. the slush streams hugging eastern coasts of siberia in bering str, and baffin island peg these as southbound flows, rather than the clear water eastwards, even if they are not always travelling in this direction.
just the fact that all the southern CAA channels are flowing strongly outward demonstrates that the northern openings are guzzling lots of near surface water even if the ice is being strained out. The very high  sea surface elevation anomaly off barrow relative to CAA and Okhotsk presently is sure to be part of the driver of this.
Certainly you are right about the SSTA contrasts being bound to provoke big weather systems. And their effect seems so far to be a reinforcing feedback. Heat in Barent and Bering feeding cyclones that hose Baffin and Okhotsk with polar cold
Won't hold my breath hoping that Baffin and Okhotsk melt late though. Land warms fast, snow cover is low, lots of high sst nearby. come may they are toast.
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