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meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1200 on: March 02, 2018, 08:47:43 AM »
Another Polar Vortex Splitting, as forcasted:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/06/0600Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-359.46,89.40,349

This, I doubt will do any Good Rest of the Freezing Season.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1201 on: March 02, 2018, 09:38:29 AM »
We broke the old scale! This may portend a late melt-out in peripheral seas, especially Hudson, Baffin, and Okhotsk.



The abundance is abundant...

North America has just had a possible minor maximum --



While across Eurasia, the accelerator is on full throttle --



With climo max still 2-3 weeks away, we may yet surpass 4,500KM^3 of accumulated SWE. That is about 1,250KM^3 above what appears to be climo avg max of ~3,250KM^3, or an increase of about 38%........

It is fair to say that freshwater flux from spring melt-out is likely to further reduce SSTs in the aforementioned regions. How much difference does 1,250KM^3 of melt on a hemispheric scale make? (and the daily flux beyond that is surely even a larger %?)

While 2017's generous volume and extent numbers helped shield the ice pack, I think the different distribution this year (more mid-latitude vs. Siberia) is likely to have the opposite effect on the ice that normally lasts the summer.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 09:44:34 AM by bbr2314 »

be cause

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1202 on: March 02, 2018, 09:51:35 AM »
the current snow cover here in Ireland may be deep but unlikely to delay any melting .. of ice pack or peripheral seas .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1203 on: March 02, 2018, 10:02:43 AM »
the current snow cover here in Ireland may be deep but unlikely to delay any melting .. of ice pack or peripheral seas .. b.c.
I don't know if that is true. I would argue that widespread low-altitude snowcover helps preserve high-altitude snowcover by virtue of melting and running off into the ocean and cooling adjacent waters, providing a buffer against heat. This allows mountaintop snowcover to remain longer into the spring.

Obviously the impact is minimal in Ireland vs. Quebec which has a substantial snowpack, but it is important not to ignore the subtle details of climate change that could have enormous impacts despite being overlooked.

Sterks

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1204 on: March 02, 2018, 12:24:47 PM »
Thick snow layer self-preserves in Spring just by the same principle for which thin sea ice self-destructs in Summer.

We'll see how warm Spring comes to mid-high latitudes. The key for the Arctic is how much snow remains in May, in places like Canada and Siberia.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1205 on: March 02, 2018, 12:57:16 PM »

https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/

NOT FAIR !!- When I follow the link above I get FORBIDDEN., and Environment Canada gives me images stuck on 26 Feb
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ArcticMelt1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1206 on: March 02, 2018, 02:02:17 PM »
Record warm winter in the Arctic






Tealight

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1207 on: March 02, 2018, 02:09:04 PM »
In the last few days I saw some people comparing the extraordinary DMI 2m temperature to previous years.
To reduce the hassle of clicking through all individual years on the website I created a spreadsheet file containing the temperature data of all years since 1960.

It can be downloaded here as csv or xlsx which includes FDDs as well.
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/0B1HTR0ONiUmEQVl4TTdZaVZvbWs


While I was working with the data I also experimented with interactive graphs on my website with google sheets. It allows the user to see the individual values of each year instead of a static image. Is it a much better presentation than static images created with python?
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd/long-term


numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1208 on: March 02, 2018, 03:50:39 PM »
We broke the old [snow volume] scale! This may portend a late melt-out in peripheral seas, especially Hudson, Baffin, and Okhotsk.

There's a deep band right on the coast of the Baffin Sea (Baffin and Ellesmere) but it's quite thin; beyond that band, snow depth is near normal.
https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

There's also band of deep snow a fair ways inland in Manitoba/Ontario/Quebec and lots of snow in Labrador. That's all below treeline -- where snow depth doesn't matter as much. The shores of Hudson Bay are near normal.

That page doesn't give snow depth on the ice though.

numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1209 on: March 02, 2018, 03:57:33 PM »
Climate Reanalyzer shows absolute snow depth but not an anomaly:
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#snowd-mslp

Hudson and Baffin are both under 10cm of snow on the ice, except in Baffin for a stretch near the North Water Polynya.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1210 on: March 02, 2018, 06:01:52 PM »
Opened up north of CAA as well.

Ice movement off the CAA. When looking closely, it may be more complex than it seems. The darker area looks like refreeze from a distance, but when zooming in the fractures run through it. 4 days is too long for an artifact.
Feb20-Mar02
 
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 06:18:28 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1211 on: March 02, 2018, 06:17:57 PM »
Here is the closer view

johnm33

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1212 on: March 02, 2018, 10:10:51 PM »
"Ice movement off the CAA." I'm always inclined to think that these gaps are due to oceanic movements. Whether they're tidal or caused by rapid changes in mslp, either locally or in the same basin[?]. The extensive cracks I think are generally caused by pressure waves colliding, given their sometimes huge scale I struggle to find an alternative explanation. Once established the wind can gain purchase, their persistence suggest whatever holds the thicker pieces together is very weak. Let's hope for some powerful freezing in what's left of the season, big pieces crashing together are going to put a lot of salt in the air.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1213 on: March 02, 2018, 10:13:29 PM »
On Wrangel Island, winter has become the warmest since 1926.

Simultaneously set two monthly records: the warmest December and February:

December -11,7 (past record -12,1 in 2007)
January -18,9 (past record -13,4 in 1930)
February -13,0 (past record -14,4 in 1989)

« Last Edit: March 03, 2018, 01:39:07 AM by ArcticMelt1 »

ArcticMelt1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1214 on: March 02, 2018, 11:36:15 PM »
The average temperature of the entire Arctic is also at the first place.

Unsurprisingly, average ice extent (NSIDC) in December on the second place, and in January and February at the first place.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1215 on: March 03, 2018, 01:35:33 AM »
On the island of Kotelny also a record warm winter -24.6С (last record winter of 1937-1938 -26.0С).

Regular observations since 1935.

Record-warm there was last February:

Dec -23.5С (past record in 1949 -22.1С)
Jan -27.6С (past record in 1940 - 23.7С)
Feb -22.7С (past record in 1934 -24.5С)

In general, a unique winter in the Arctic.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1216 on: March 03, 2018, 07:45:03 PM »
Reasonably clear weather over Hudson Bay. Feb27-Mar02

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1217 on: March 03, 2018, 07:48:58 PM »
Reasonably clear weather over Hudson Bay. Feb27-Mar02
The massive +500MB anomaly now over/about to persist over Quebec/HB should be very beneficial to forming new ice as winds blow out of every which directions at strong speeds. With sufficient cold for ice formation still abundant, come May, June, and July, Hudson Bay may prove surprisingly resilient this year -- we shall see.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1218 on: March 03, 2018, 07:50:54 PM »
I also believe this is substantially more MYI in Nares/transported through Nares than normal...



FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1219 on: March 03, 2018, 08:18:59 PM »
There's just one little impediment to forming lots of new ice in Hudson's bay and the Labrador sea under the conditions we'll see over the next 10 days.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1220 on: March 03, 2018, 08:35:51 PM »
Too damn hot....

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1221 on: March 03, 2018, 08:41:41 PM »
Too damn hot....
On the other hand:-
DMI 80+ North Temperature now only normally abnormally high as opposed to abnormally abnormally high. (Thickening of CAB?)How low will it go ?
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1222 on: March 03, 2018, 09:23:11 PM »
There's just one little impediment to forming lots of new ice in Hudson's bay and the Labrador sea under the conditions we'll see over the next 10 days.

this is not a no-but reply but i would like to add something to consider:

this map shows the anomalies and many recent statements like yours were underlined (based upon) anomaly maps because many of us including myself regularly have an look at anomalies because they stick out clearly and are easy to interpret.

as it happens, and i'm on purpose using an example that is a bit wider based than necessary, an anomaly of zero degrees celsius at the end of march can be warmer (probably is) than a huge positive (bad) anomaly at the end of february because temperatures are raising significantly around equinox.

further, the graphs clearly show that around this time the upward trend is starting to struggle to go further up, sometimes still does and in other years did not climb further.

in short, i do not believe, mostly due to water temps, albedo in southerly regions (peripheral) and not to forget the warmer air building up in mid latitues (generally speaking, regionally different) in further significant gains in sea-ice extent.

this does not mean it can't happen, it's just not as clear as it sounds at times here due to anomalies the will perhaps/probably be a bit closer to the norm than they were during most of the winter.

i hope i was able to make my point in a comprehensive manner that wouldn't raise blood pressure of some LOL

nice weekend @all

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1223 on: March 03, 2018, 09:44:19 PM »
...How low will it go ?

Looks to me like it is stalling at 250.  About where it was at this time last year, but last year we'd just had a cold snap which had brought it down to nearly normal.

Is normal abnormal something like known unknown?

Archimid

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1224 on: March 03, 2018, 09:50:01 PM »
Quote
further, the graphs clearly show that around this time the upward trend is starting to struggle to go further up, sometimes still does and in other years did not climb further.

It's almost as if the warming runs out of steam towards the end of winter.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1225 on: March 03, 2018, 09:51:35 PM »
There's just one little impediment to forming lots of new ice in Hudson's bay and the Labrador sea under the conditions we'll see over the next 10 days.
Those 850s are still well below 0 and one might consider that they are so high in part specifically *because* of latent heat release from ongoing ice formation over the areas under the blocking.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1226 on: March 03, 2018, 09:53:05 PM »
There's another month or two before reds like ^ translate into +0C warmth instead of massive amounts of snow.

E.G.,






uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1227 on: March 04, 2018, 12:12:35 AM »
We could probably agree that ice in Hudson Bay is unlikely to thicken much over the next week if the current forecasts are accurate.

Nullschool reports air and SST temps of ~2.5C roughly where the Labrador Sea label is in the first frame. Ice along the Newfoundland/Labrador coast looks very weak.
Edit: Actually it's very difficult to distinguish ice from cloud here.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2018, 12:19:37 AM by uniquorn »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1228 on: March 04, 2018, 01:58:35 AM »
Those 850s are still well below 0 and one might consider that they are so high in part specifically *because* of latent heat release from ongoing ice formation over the areas under the blocking.

That warm air was advected from over Greenland. It's a classic blocking high. The subsidence into that dome of warm air has come down from the stratosphere. Read Judah Cohen's blog and his Tweets.  https://twitter.com/judah47/status/962792488510640129

I'm not an expert on polar meteorology and stratospheric physics like Dr. Cohen but you might find this post of mine to be of some interest.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/12/1740690/-Polar-Vortex-Splits-Record-High-Heat-into-Polar-Stratosphere-Record-Low-Arctic-Sea-Ice

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1229 on: March 04, 2018, 02:02:19 AM »
Those 850s are still well below 0 and one might consider that they are so high in part specifically *because* of latent heat release from ongoing ice formation over the areas under the blocking.

That warm air was advected from over Greenland. It's a classic blocking high. The subsidence into that dome of warm air has come down from the stratosphere. Read Judah Cohen's blog and his Tweets.  https://twitter.com/judah47/status/962792488510640129

I'm not an expert on polar meteorology and stratospheric physics like Dr. Cohen but you might find this post of mine to be of some interest.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/12/1740690/-Polar-Vortex-Splits-Record-High-Heat-into-Polar-Stratosphere-Record-Low-Arctic-Sea-Ice
Exactly. It is relatively "warm" but due to the Greenland ice sheet it has cooled and is substantially below 0C. This makes it pink on anomaly maps but sub-0C in reality which lends itself to prolific snowfall totals well beyond the old days when parts of Quebec were far colder/less snowier.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1230 on: March 04, 2018, 02:55:06 AM »
Following the polar vortex split there hasn't been much stratospheric wave driving so the polar vortex is normalizing over the pole to the extent possible for early March. The CFSv2 model predicts temperatures to be on the cool side over the central Arctic through some point into mid or late April. On the other hand, although north-central Eurasia is likely to have a cool period the peripheral areas of sea ice will be under attack by warmer than normal temperatures, storms and wind.

The polar vortex split has sped up the westerlies and increased the amount of heat that's going to be extracted from the north wall of the Gulf Stream and the ocean heat in the temperate regions of the north Atlantic and north Pacific oceans. It going to make for a stormy early spring and poor conditions for ice growth in Hudson's bay and the Labrador sea.

This is a classic cold western Europe warm eastern Canada set up of the North Atlantic Oscillation. I'm sorry for all my European friends here that it's going to be a nasty, cold March. As I said above, there is some good news for sea ice in the central Arctic, but not in Hudson's bay.


DavidR

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1231 on: March 04, 2018, 04:37:59 AM »
The NOAA-ESRL temperature readings for February are out and they put the February average temperature over the whole Arctic (67+) at about 0.25 degC above the previous record holder 2016.

For the area above 80N+, the area covered by the DMI graphs the difference is more than 1 degree warmer than the previous record holder.

This exceptional warmth is also obvious in the North Pacific graph leading to the exceptional drop in extent in that area in February.

Globally  temperatures were third or fourth warmest on record.

In the Antarctic, temperatures were not in the top 40 despite the very low extent there

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1233 on: March 04, 2018, 12:01:21 PM »
Following the polar vortex split there hasn't been much stratospheric wave driving so the polar vortex is normalizing over the pole to the extent possible for early March. The CFSv2 model predicts temperatures to be on the cool side over the central Arctic through some point into mid or late April.

Some, seems like are not paying Attention, at all. As I stated earlier another Polar Vortex Splitting is to hit Home on 7th March:

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1234 on: March 04, 2018, 02:45:31 PM »
It appears that the vortex split will work to inhibit ice growth during the typically last few weeks of the freezing season.  We may still see a new low in maximum ice.  The corollary to this is that the Eurasian cold may work to stifle any early ice melt.  We will likely see a much flatter curve this year than in the past.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1235 on: March 04, 2018, 02:55:33 PM »

Some, seems like are not paying Attention, at all. As I stated earlier another Polar Vortex Splitting is to hit Home on 7th March:

Sorry Meddoc, I forgot to say :-
- the NullSchool images are stunning,
- is it all part of the -ve NAO?
- will that high stay stuck over Greenland for a good long while - with mid-latitude Atlantic westerlies making the UK mild and soggy?
- The Central Arctic is going to get really cold?
- does ENSO have any correlation with these events?

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1236 on: March 04, 2018, 04:30:50 PM »
cc-reanalyzer shows the classic Greenland high and strong mid-latitude westerlies persisting throughout its 10 day forecast period, and incidentally give the NE USA two more Nor'Easters with which to welcome Spring.

I'm feeling more confident about a 15th March Arctic Sea Ice maximum extent.

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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1237 on: March 04, 2018, 06:06:13 PM »
It certainly is a colourful journey from 10hPa down to the surface on Nullschool. The 4day forecast has the vortex at 10hPa (~30,000m) centred over land, near Salekhard.
https://tinyurl.com/ybt4khmg

By coincidence or model design a cyclone is forecast at surface level over Salekhard for the same day (circled on the image). A series of small cyclones are also forecast over the ice front east of Greenland and near the north pole. It is still cold, but this probably won't help refreeze.

Mar98 temperature at surface level. (4 days out so may not be accurate)
« Last Edit: March 04, 2018, 08:20:25 PM by uniquorn »

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1238 on: March 04, 2018, 06:14:55 PM »
Here are some more NCEP Reanalysis temperature graphs for February. Atlantic was 2nd highest on record, Siberian 4th highest, Pacific numero uno, but Canadian 33rd highest on record (if I counted correctly, I only have 10 fingers). The Arctic as a whole second warmest on record, after being second in October, 4th in November, first in December and second in January.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1239 on: March 04, 2018, 06:41:41 PM »
Here are some more NCEP Reanalysis temperature graphs for February. Atlantic was 2nd highest on record, Siberian 4th highest, Pacific numero uno, but Canadian 33rd highest on record (if I counted correctly, I only have 10 fingers). The Arctic as a whole second warmest on record, after being second in October, 4th in November, first in December and second in January.
I would posit this is additional evidence that Quebec/HB/maybe parts of CAA are now cooling relative to the rest of the NHEM.

In fact, taking a look at this D10 snowfall forecast, it basically looks like what one would expect to see if an ice sheet were extending itself southward. While the sun will most definitely still win out this year starting within a few weeks, how much longer does the trend exemplified in your graphs have to continue for that not to be the case?





In any case, North American SWE is now about 40% above normal, just about to cross the 1,500KM^3 mark.



If we see a particularly late decline in snowfall this spring, it could bode for a very late sea ice maximum, perhaps even in early April.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1240 on: March 04, 2018, 06:45:30 PM »
I only have 10 fingers).

No you don't. You have ten digits - 8 fingers and two thumbs, though most days I feel like its more like 4 fingers and 6 thumbs

Off-topic - will I be snipped?
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be cause

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1241 on: March 04, 2018, 06:51:50 PM »
will I be snipped ? .. Neventually ! :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1242 on: March 04, 2018, 06:53:17 PM »
Off-topic - will I be snipped?

Do you want to be snipped?  ;D

In fact, taking a look at this D10 snowfall forecast, it basically looks like what one would expect to see if an ice sheet were extending itself southward. While the sun will most definitely still win out this year starting within a few weeks, how much longer does the trend exemplified in your graphs have to continue for that not to be the case?

I don't know, we'll see what happens.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1243 on: March 04, 2018, 06:58:12 PM »
Off-topic - will I be snipped?

Do you want to be snipped? 
No, I suddenly thought - Vasectomy (gulp)
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1244 on: March 04, 2018, 07:11:47 PM »
Off-topic - will I be snipped?

Do you want to be snipped?  ;D

In fact, taking a look at this D10 snowfall forecast, it basically looks like what one would expect to see if an ice sheet were extending itself southward. While the sun will most definitely still win out this year starting within a few weeks, how much longer does the trend exemplified in your graphs have to continue for that not to be the case?

I don't know, we'll see what happens.

Besides the outright drops & increases it is interesting to note that the regions have seemingly stabilized in their "positions" relative to one another as well over the past few years, a fact that was *not* the case in the early part of the graph. It seems they are falling into a rythym where heat cycles between each basin before ultimately depositing into the NRN Pacific. Perhaps this is being aided by the drop in aerosols across NE Asia as China begins to clamp on coal/etc.

Several other things to note

1) ATL and Siberian temps are surprisingly well correlated if you look at the two. They follow each other quite closely.

2) Pac & Canadian temps appeared to have approximately the same correlation however this ended in 2013 and has now flipped to inverse, with regularity and increasing disparity.

If that graph holds weight (and I believe it does) another five years leads to relatively little change in both ATL + Siberia (bit warmer in both), however, it portends increasingly drastic shifts in both Canada and the North Pacific as both regions seem to be in some sort of feedback at this point where Pacific warming is driving Canadian cooling (or vice-versa, or both).
« Last Edit: March 04, 2018, 07:17:36 PM by bbr2314 »

aperson

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1245 on: March 04, 2018, 07:28:58 PM »
Following the polar vortex split there hasn't been much stratospheric wave driving so the polar vortex is normalizing over the pole to the extent possible for early March. The CFSv2 model predicts temperatures to be on the cool side over the central Arctic through some point into mid or late April.

Some, seems like are not paying Attention, at all. As I stated earlier another Polar Vortex Splitting is to hit Home on 7th March:

No, there's just not another real split (and associated SSW) happening yet and there probably won't be until the final warming at this pace. First, subsequent runs of GFS do not show a separate lobe of cyclonic energy on Mar. 7th any more. Second, this isn't really a PV split, there is not any Easterly flow showing up in the vortex, and there is not an associated wave of warm energy ascending from the troposphere.
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oren

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1246 on: March 04, 2018, 08:21:42 PM »
Here are some more NCEP Reanalysis temperature graphs for February. Atlantic was 2nd highest on record, Siberian 4th highest, Pacific numero uno, but Canadian 33rd highest on record (if I counted correctly, I only have 10 fingers). The Arctic as a whole second warmest on record, after being second in October, 4th in November, first in December and second in January.
I would posit this is additional evidence that Quebec/HB/maybe parts of CAA are now cooling relative to the rest of the NHEM.
No. QB and HB are south of 65N. Neven's Canadian sector chart is of a sector of the ocean, the CAA, most of Nunavut and parts of NWT (and a piece of Yukon).

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1247 on: March 04, 2018, 09:29:08 PM »
Forgot to post how I have divided the Arctic in four sectors:
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ArcticMelt1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1248 on: March 05, 2018, 12:00:51 AM »
Comparison of the last winter with others.

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/970047257817960448

Quote
This year's #Arctic winter (December through February) is a virtual tie (with 2015-16) for the warmest on record in at least the last 70 years...

[925 hPa air temperature; >67°N; R1 reanalysis]


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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1249 on: March 05, 2018, 12:23:26 AM »
I have been musing on the potential repercussions of the FDD anomaly chart trajectory this freezing season compared to last.

While one might be tempted to complaisance by the fact that the 2016/17 chart is well below the 2017/18 one, and think that we are in a better position for ice survival at the beginning of the melt season than last year, I am inclined to think that this may be a mistaken hypothesis.

That sept-dec31 2017 was colder than the same period of 2016 would cause the ice to lid over the basin quicker and prevent heat release from the water underneath better.
 
And then the record  anomaly we have seen in the 2018 part of the chart has prevented thickening, brine expulsion, hardening, and increased mobility and vulnerability to wind and wave, and export thru the CAA comparative to 2017.

This suggests to me that we are going to start the season in a substantially worse state of preconditioning conducive to melt than last year. 

Thoughts anyone?
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