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be cause

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #950 on: February 19, 2018, 02:42:15 AM »
Sentinel 1 images show Lincon rushing into Nares and the N shore of Greenland has had a large expanse of open water form and freeze .. and then there is the coming Low . It really 'owns' the Arctic for a few days if GFS is to be believed . There is rarely a dull moment outside of the melt season these days .. bc
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #951 on: February 19, 2018, 06:28:57 AM »
Should we worry about Low solar and its habit of driving high pressure across the north ( even if mainly over winter?)?

The last time we descended into low solar we saw 07' , 2010 and , as sunspot numbers were on the up ,2012?

With us facing some possible northern blocking , over the atlantic side of the basin, from the ongoing SSW I wondering if we will see a runaway start to the season with HP domination the Atlantic side of the basin? If we see the Beaufort high join in the fun then we could see a high melt pond start to the season , a start not seen since the last low end of the sunspot cycle?

Only problem: low solar affected the weather in such magnitude previously because its contribution was similar magnitude as the background noise. Nowadays the GHG signal is so much higher. Next solar low will be uneventful...
Concur; with the changes in CO2 solar changes will be within typical ranges for noise.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #952 on: February 19, 2018, 06:42:21 AM »
By hr 48 it seems rapid melting could even be possible in areas of the Beaufort adjacent to the spreading open water.

Those are temperature anomaly maps you're posting. Actual temperatures will barely get above 0 °C.
<snip>

Open water is visible and spreading. The action will come in sync with wind and waves. IMO there will be melt over a wide area and come 2/25 the picture over Bering will be substantially more bleak than today.
Over the Bering, maybe - but that will be an outcome of wave action, water temperature, consolidation and Ekman pumping rather than any direct atmospheric action dumping heat into the ice.

There really won't be sufficient heat for significant direct melt for another month, when more sunlight arrives.  Until then, what this heat does mostly is prevent new ice from forming, and existing ice from thickening - which is quite awful enough on its own.

Even if we don't lose another KM2 of extent, if the melt season starts with the Bering just as-is, I'd say the Chukchi and Beaufort will be in serious danger of early attack by heat.  We could see early transfer of heat via both inflow through the strait and more significantly I think - precipitation in the form of rain because of the huge reservoir of heat that has been retained further south in the Bering proper.  I'll be watching for that.

[Edit] I will add, all that open water in the Bering also means much early heat uptake from insolation, which in earlier years would get spilled back out by albedo.  None of that now - the only thing stopping it is cloud cover, and even then, that means down-welling longwave radiation will still get picked up by the water rather than deflected by ice.

The Bering will be starting the season with a significant heat surplus, and a net acceleration in heat which can be captured.  I've no idea yet how much of an effect that will have on the ice further north, but I can't think it will be good.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 06:49:35 AM by jdallen »
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Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #953 on: February 19, 2018, 08:14:28 AM »
JD
"and even then, that means down-welling longwave radiation will still get picked up by the water rather than deflected by ice."

What do you mean by this? The emissivity/absorptivity of water and ice are almost identical in the IR range. Most natural materials have values of 0.96..0.99. So I wouldn't have expected much difference.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #954 on: February 19, 2018, 12:02:56 PM »
While waves of very high temperature anomalies pass over the Arctic in the next few days, cci-reanalyzer says "all change" from about Feb26th. By March 1 the Arctic temp anomaly plunges down to 0.8 degrees celsius, while the Pacific end has -ve anomalies.

Ok, a long way out, but a reminder that the freezing season is not over yet.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #955 on: February 19, 2018, 12:47:24 PM »
Here are some January comparisons of ice thickness. When the ice is moving rapidly, as with the very thick CAA floes now in the Beaufort and Chukchi matrix of FYI, narrow swath products such as Cryosat lose quite a bit of detail in the monthly averaging process. Ascat too can be averaged for January, third frame. The mid-February Rasm-Esrl agrees so well with the January-averaged Cryosat that one wonders if it is independently derived. SMOS too has multi-year January averages available (more years and higher resolution at seaice.de twitter).

These were compared earlier  with the monthly average for Piomas at that forum:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg141302.html#msg141302
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 01:00:46 PM by A-Team »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #956 on: February 19, 2018, 02:35:15 PM »
A-Team

NOAA-18 AVHRR IR seems to show a major hole in the thick ice area in the Lincoln Sea north of  Greenland. Does not seem to be an anomaly. See attached.

A4R

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #957 on: February 19, 2018, 03:30:44 PM »
Yes, that would be the 3rd lift-off this season due to strong westward zonal winds of 45-85 km/hr (if we are looking at the same thing, hollow arrow) but the overall appearance above Morris Jesup is oddly fractured. Thing to do here is look at it through various channels to get at recent history at assorted wavelengths. This is day 5 of this event which will continue to the 24th.

It can cause double-counting of Fram export to the extent ice is blown back and forth across the flux gate (taken as 82ºN below) before getting caught up for good in the East Greenland Current and melted out to the south.

Satellite-derived sea-ice export and its impact on Arctic ice mass balance
R Ricker, F Girard-Ardhuin, T Krumpen, Camille Lique
Accepted for discussion: 06 Feb 2018
https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-6/ free full

Ice volume export drives variations of Arctic ice mass balance. It also represents a significant fresh water input to the North Atlantic, which could in turn modulate the intensity of the thermohaline circulation.

We present the first estimates of winter sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait using CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness retrievals and three different drift products for the years 2010 to 2017. The export rates vary between  21 and 540 km3 per month.

We find that ice drift variability is the main driver of annual and interannual ice volume export variability, and that the interannual variations of the ice drift are driven by large scale variability of the atmospheric circulation captured by the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices.

On shorter timescale, however, the seasonal cycle is also driven by the mean thickness of exported sea ice, typically peaking in March. Considering Arctic winter multiyear ice volume changes, 54 % of the variability can be explained by the variations of ice volume export through the Fram Strait.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 04:53:12 PM by A-Team »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #958 on: February 19, 2018, 04:56:06 PM »
Brightness temperature Band 15 of the same area

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #959 on: February 19, 2018, 04:59:29 PM »
Sentinel-1AB from DTU for Feb 19th. Temperatures at the Fram flux gate have been moderate, -3ºC to -8ºC, and will remain so for several days according to GFS nullschool before some warm winds set in briefly on the 23rd.

Looking at the wrong-way-corrigan wind and ice motion at the bottom (and 8 years of floe feature indisputable trajectories of actual net motion), it may be time to to bring in anthropologists to explain the strange cult in climate studies that persists in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. What goes through the scientific mind looking at these ASCAT animations, 3000 days of NOAA hoaxing that no one noticed? The Arctic has changed, that's the part they can't/won't accept.

https://www.centennialofflight.net/essay/Explorers_Record_Setters_and_Daredevils/corrigan/EX16.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/25/sports/college-football-revisiting-wrong-way-riegels.html
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 12:29:35 AM by A-Team »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #960 on: February 19, 2018, 05:00:42 PM »
I thought "lift off" was confined to rockets at Cape Canaveral, not ASI north of Greenland.  :'( (I know it has happened before, but from memory, this is more extreme than typical.)  Images from DMI (Images of Morris Jesup [northern tip of Greenland] and Lincoln Sea [lower image, with entrance to Nares Strait off the lower left corner).
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #961 on: February 19, 2018, 05:05:31 PM »
JD
"and even then, that means down-welling longwave radiation will still get picked up by the water rather than deflected by ice."

What do you mean by this? The emissivity/absorptivity of water and ice are almost identical in the IR range. Most natural materials have values of 0.96..0.99. So I wouldn't have expected much difference.

I may be off in my thinking in this regard then.  I wasn't paying attention to the IR spectrum absorption when I wrote that.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #962 on: February 19, 2018, 05:13:52 PM »
I thought "lift off" was confined to rockets at Cape Canaveral, not ASI north of Greenland.  :'( (I know it has happened before, but from memory, this is more extreme than typical.)  <snip>
I think from this we may be able derive a conclusion that, there is no such thing as land fast ice in the Arctic any more.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #963 on: February 19, 2018, 05:36:16 PM »
Quote
there is no such thing as landfast ice in the Arctic any more.
Certainly none on the Canadian or Alaskan side, not seeing any on the Siberian side either. The coastal ice is all in motion, even over a three month time frame in the dead of winter. It is like reading newspaper obituaries, all these older phenomena that are no longer with us (and like the deceased, not coming back).
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 06:03:13 PM by A-Team »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #964 on: February 19, 2018, 06:00:23 PM »
GFS-nullschool next five days suggesting a full trans-polar shear as winds are tugging in opposing directions rather than setting the ice pack in rotation

There are some new features that may be related.

El Cid

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #965 on: February 19, 2018, 06:45:53 PM »
Quote
there is no such thing as landfast ice in the Arctic any more.
(and like the deceased, not coming back).

Oh, my! Haven't you heard about zombies??? ;D

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #966 on: February 19, 2018, 06:46:37 PM »
When fast ice no longer holds on in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), that's when I'll start worrying!  ::) :P
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #967 on: February 19, 2018, 06:50:38 PM »
GFS-nullschool next five days suggesting a full trans-polar shear as winds are tugging in opposing directions rather than setting the ice pack in rotation

There are some new features that may be related.
Yep. Those are shear cracks.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #968 on: February 19, 2018, 07:09:13 PM »
When fast ice no longer holds on in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), that's when I'll start worrying!  ::) :P
I'm afraid it may be time to start that, Tor.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #969 on: February 19, 2018, 07:18:41 PM »
Yep. Those are shear cracks.

This shows it better.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #970 on: February 19, 2018, 07:48:21 PM »
When fast ice no longer holds on in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), that's when I'll start worrying!  ::) :P
I'm afraid it may be time to start that, Tor.
I should have written "...that was when I started..."  :'(
Code: [Select]
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (defined here to include Nares Strait which borders Greenland) ...from abstract of Ocean and sea-ice dynamics in Nares Strait and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  Of course, there are two months remaining for the possible closing of Nares Strait this season.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #971 on: February 19, 2018, 09:00:07 PM »
Here are 278 days of ice movement in the interior CAA channels, from May 15th to Feb 18th. Summer months might benefit from a mask for daily open water to avoid artifacts brought by passing weather, available from AMSR2 at 3.125 km resolution. However the benefit is somewhat offset in narrow channels where some pixels would have a foot in island, ice and water.

CAs have suggested up-forum that this lower latitude ice will melt out sooner than the Arctic Ocean proper and that resulting seasonally open channels will then facilitate accelerated ice export way beyond what we see today. That idea has merit and should be added to the long list of model defects (can't upload, exceeds forum limits) that understate the demise of Arctic sea ice.

Note that surges in pack ice are already visibly transmitted to CAA interior channels. When channel back pressure has melted off, MYI export volume may well exceed both the Nares and Fram under persistent wind conditions like those of the last several weeks.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 09:45:32 PM by A-Team »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #972 on: February 19, 2018, 09:40:36 PM »
Wow!
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #973 on: February 19, 2018, 10:15:06 PM »
I still can't get over the Pacific side. Here is Feb 06 - Feb 14 and Feb 16 - 18. Bad news is that heat is returning somewhere between Feb 26 and March 1 over the Bering Sea (Climate Reanalyzer, GFS). Of course it's too far, but worth to keep an eye on. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/. Latest chart https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 11:22:19 PM by romett1 »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #974 on: February 19, 2018, 11:29:05 PM »
From Worldview today and last year.

Phil.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #975 on: February 20, 2018, 12:58:07 AM »
Here are 278 days of ice movement in the interior CAA channels, from May 15th to Feb 18th. Summer months might benefit from a mask for daily open water to avoid artifacts brought by passing weather, available from AMSR2 at 3.125 km resolution. However the benefit is somewhat offset in narrow channels where some pixels would have a foot in island, ice and water.

CAs have suggested up-forum that this lower latitude ice will melt out sooner than the Arctic Ocean proper and that resulting seasonally open channels will then facilitate accelerated ice export way beyond what we see today. That idea has merit and should be added to the long list of model defects (can't upload, exceeds forum limits) that understate the demise of Arctic sea ice.

Note that surges in pack ice are already visibly transmitted to CAA interior channels. When channel back pressure has melted off, MYI export volume may well exceed both the Nares and Fram under persistent wind conditions like those of the last several weeks.

Looking at the Sentinel images it looks like the ice is broken up all the way from the entrance of the Nares strait round to Fram?  That seems unusual, with the right wind in the summer could we see a passage north of Greenland?  In any case that ice that's going down the Nares is some of the thickest, which isn't good.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #976 on: February 20, 2018, 01:56:32 AM »
When the ice decides to melt out the time of year isn't going to matter -- and now I wonder if I still need to put that in the future tense.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #977 on: February 20, 2018, 02:48:21 AM »
From Worldview today and last year.
What I actually find even *more* disturbing is what appears to be 20-30,000KM2 of open water in the southern Chukchi sea *north* of the Bering Strait.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #978 on: February 20, 2018, 04:16:02 AM »
It can cause double-counting of Fram export to the extent ice is blown back and forth across the flux gate (taken as 82ºN below) before getting caught up for good in the East Greenland Current and melted out to the south.
I think in summertime there's a relatively new phenomenon, melting of the thin ice "glue" before it even reaches the flux gate, resulting in under-counting of exported area compared to the past.

Here are 278 days of ice movement in the interior CAA channels, from May 15th to Feb 18th.
Amazing, especially the color animation.

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #979 on: February 20, 2018, 04:49:14 AM »
Tonight it is going to get down to 23 F where I live here in Southern Calif.  I went and looked at Red Dog Dock ( north of Kotzebue ) and it is ~ 31 F . Weird !

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=rdda2


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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #980 on: February 20, 2018, 11:49:49 AM »
From Worldview today and last year.
Thanks, nice comparison. Instead of ice there are currently waves over 11 m (Earth.nullschool).

Pavel

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #981 on: February 20, 2018, 12:26:41 PM »
What I see in the weather forecasts is that  there will be each day strong and warm cyclones from both Pacific and Atlantic sides. Looks terrible especially the Bering sea, I wonder will there be any more freezing momentum this season in the Bering.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #982 on: February 20, 2018, 01:07:16 PM »
...Looks terrible especially the Bering sea, I wonder will there be any more freezing momentum this season in the Bering.
In as many words, no.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #983 on: February 20, 2018, 01:23:59 PM »
no big freeze possible that way indeed  8)

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #984 on: February 20, 2018, 03:42:52 PM »
The mp4 shows the first 50 days of this year at the Bering Strait: Ascat ice brightness age over AMSR2 sea ice concentration. The slides show Mercator Ocean's view of temperature, anomaly, salinity, current at two depths for Feb 19th and the nine day forecast to 01 Mar 2018.

The gif shows surface currents passing through the Bering Strait since Jan 1st and includes the nine-day forecast. The current scale maximum of 0.6 m/s corresponds to 2.16 km/hr or 52 km/day so, given the surface temperatures, quite a bit of warm water has been entering the Chukchi at the prevailing values.

MercOcean does provide arrows showing current direction but they are far too short to display and the grid is too sparse for a strait. Currents have primarily been inflows to the Arctic Ocean over this time frame; the Feb 20th shows an example of the grid. The wind on this date is blowing 81 km/hr directly poleward through the Bering Strait per GFS nullschool.

Technical note: MercOcean reinvented the wheel on data display, with interesting innovations offset by numerous technical bugs that aren't being fixed. The top priorities are user control of map orientation, fixing the web url so that it specifies the view (allowing automation of time series), and furnishing the netCDF for cross-silo data combinations.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 06:04:58 PM by A-Team »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #985 on: February 20, 2018, 05:34:17 PM »
Not looking good in the Bering Strait A-Team.

A quick look at today's temperature anomaly in the Kara/Barents.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #986 on: February 20, 2018, 06:51:49 PM »
Wow uniquorn, that is the Image of the Day! Strong and persistent winds are having quite an effect on Kara Sea ice. Seems like it is moving to the north while collapsing from the west ... a lot of action for the 3rd week of February. We can only wish there were not tourism facilities on Vize Island (vz).
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 07:06:26 PM by A-Team »

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #987 on: February 20, 2018, 09:34:37 PM »
[Edit] I will add, all that open water in the Bering also means much early heat uptake from insolation, which in earlier years would get spilled back out by albedo.  None of that now - the only thing stopping it is cloud cover, and even then, that means down-welling longwave radiation will still get picked up by the water rather than deflected by ice.

The Bering will be starting the season with a significant heat surplus, and a net acceleration in heat which can be captured.  I've no idea yet how much of an effect that will have on the ice further north, but I can't think it will be good.

During the winter, open water also loses heat much faster than frozen-over water. . I still think there's time for it to freeze over in normal or colder weather, but that window is closing. I can't really say when it's closed - though it looks like the Bearing Sea has (historically) added ice at times throughout March so it isn't immediate.

I also think Albedo effects on the Bering may not be that significant (for the arctic ocean ice), because of the narrowness and shallowness of the straight limiting the current that can pass through it (compared to the Atlantic side, especially). The Beaufort can open before the straight is fully cleared, so I don't think it's a keystone or anything.

It might impact the weather farther on because of the extra pool of warm water available there, but I can't really say what those impacts would be. It may well be a cloudier summer due to more vapor available.

It is insanely warm there now, and the ice cover is shockingly low, but I feel like the impacts will be muted later in the season.

Though if it stays somewhat open on the Arctic/Beaufort side of the straight... then I'm way more worried. I feel like that would require this insane weather (I mean, 0C+ temps! In February!) to continue for more than a month, constant split PV and all that.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #988 on: February 20, 2018, 11:05:29 PM »
This disintegration of the Kara Sea ice cover has been going on for a few weeks beneath the clouds but has really picked up steam in recent days.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 11:33:08 PM by A-Team »

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #989 on: February 20, 2018, 11:17:10 PM »
Not looking good in the Bering Strait A-Team.

A quick look at today's temperature anomaly in the Kara/Barents.

Abnormally warm temp anomalies often occur where open water has replaced what would previously be ice. This is the case here.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #990 on: February 21, 2018, 12:58:12 AM »
Open water does release more heat to the atmosphere, but that tends to amplify ridging. Over the past decade we have seen huge domes of warm air coming off the warm water in the Barents sea. This fall and winter we have seen massive warm blocking highs near both the Barents and Bering seas. La Niña tends to intensify the east Pacific high and bend the jet stream coming off the coast of Asia towards the Aleutians, but this year the storm track has gone all the way into the Arctic ocean. Rossby wave patterns are being amplified by the excess ocean heat in the tropical west Pacific, the far north Pacific and the Chukchi sea. Heat left over from last spring's very early melting in the Chukchi kept the Bering strait ice free through December, 2017.

The warmth in the Arctic for the last 2 winters has been unprecedented. The polar vortex split is the result of a very strong planetary wave  #2 that was amplified by excess heat on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic ocean.

And the wind patterns have developed a very strong sea surface height gradient that is increasing the flow of saltier Pacific water into the Arctic and the flow of fresh Beaufort high water out through the main channel of the CAA. On both sides of the Arctic, intermediate water formation is enhanced by convection of saltier incoming water from both the Atlantic and the Pacific.


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #991 on: February 21, 2018, 01:06:25 AM »
Quote
there is no such thing as landfast ice in the Arctic any more.
Certainly none on the Canadian or Alaskan side, not seeing any on the Siberian side either. The coastal ice is all in motion, even over a three month time frame in the dead of winter. It is like reading newspaper obituaries, all these older phenomena that are no longer with us (and like the deceased, not coming back).

Pretty sure I see landfast ice building up on the east side of the Siberian Islands in the second half of that animation.  Still a few months until volume maximum so it will build up further.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #992 on: February 21, 2018, 01:18:41 AM »

During the winter, open water also loses heat much faster than frozen-over water.

I also think Albedo effects on the Bering may not be that significant

true that, only that currents and wave actions as well as mixup with deeper layers replace most of the heat that gets more rapidly lost as well as is replaced with warmer waters from the south be it driven by winds and/or currents depending. that makes your conclusion only 100% valid for calm waters without the influence of warm currents and with no (southerly) winds.

as to the significance of albedo i simply disagree, we're haeding towards solstice in large steps and as compared to a almost entirely white ice cover with a snow blanket any insolation at this time of the year is relevant at that latitude IMO.

again if if relevance is reduced in the northern parts of that region, the inflow of waters from the south that were prone to significantly higher insolation will have it's effect.

part of this is fact IMO and part is logical while i'm not the expert to explain in details like currrents speed or their total amount of water heading north through the bering strait, others might have that information readily available.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #993 on: February 21, 2018, 01:21:03 AM »
Here are a couple of astonishing 5day outlook maps from Climate Reanalyser/GFS, one for the surface temperature anomaly over the period, and the other for the 5day maximum temp.

I haven't had time to follow recently so I may be restating what others have already said, but that's a lot of lost FDDs, and a huge area that is forecast to see above freezing temperatures in the absolute depth of winter. Some cold is forecast to set in about a week out, we'll see how that goes

Edit: for whatever reason the png files I uploaded weren't displaying, at least for me, so I'll try replacing them with JPG copies

« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 01:28:05 AM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #994 on: February 21, 2018, 01:44:58 AM »
Without a huge turnaround the Chukchi Sea will meltout incredibly early this year. The thin ice map is showing open water now and the thinice area seems to be expanding northwards. With inflowing Pacific seawater, there's no way this area is going to have any thick resilient ice, the waters in this area are going to have a long time to warm up through the peak of the insolation season

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #995 on: February 21, 2018, 02:27:27 AM »
Quote
there is no such thing as landfast ice in the Arctic any more.
Certainly none on the Canadian or Alaskan side, not seeing any on the Siberian side either. The coastal ice is all in motion, even over a three month time frame in the dead of winter. It is like reading newspaper obituaries, all these older phenomena that are no longer with us (and like the deceased, not coming back).

Pretty sure I see landfast ice building up on the east side of the Siberian Islands in the second half of that animation.  Still a few months until volume maximum so it will build up further.

Does volume max usually occur at the end of May?

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #996 on: February 21, 2018, 03:53:53 AM »
Polar Vortex splitting is starting to look like a regular pattern in winters. Wa/cc happens of course because oceans have a whole lot of thermal mass trying to get out of planet (as far as heat tries to do anything, return to original singularity creating entropy?). i think I go to hibernation as the tabloids here predict awful Siberian coldness that is 10 degrees celsius warmer than 30 years ago that was 5 degrees celsius warmer than in the 1940s to take over the land.

Now, if we only could change the properties of water...  nevermind. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat%27s_Cradle

Now @ -19C/some negative F, warm day in W.Siberia.

« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 04:24:44 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #997 on: February 21, 2018, 04:52:46 AM »
Does volume max usually occur at the end of May?
Volume max in the CAB will be later than the overall max date.  Ice can continue to thicken while the periphery begins to melt.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #998 on: February 21, 2018, 06:49:14 AM »
The Bering Strait on feb 5 and feb 20 - it wasn't worth making a movie as in the intervening days were dominated by cloud. From dispersed floes everywhere to a stream of rotten mush flowing in to the Chukchi amidst open water. Holy Dooley

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #999 on: February 21, 2018, 07:35:26 AM »


Though if it stays somewhat open on the Arctic/Beaufort side of the straight... then I'm way more worried. I feel like that would require this insane weather (I mean, 0C+ temps! In February!) to continue for more than a month, constant split PV and all that.

Doesn't it have to get down to -11C for new ice to form ? And at higher temps there can't be much thickening. Lower temperatures than this are likely to return, but for how long? Will there be more bouts of high winds to wreck the thin ice with wave action? I think the Bering has seen its extent max for the season and it would surprise to see open water remain until the melt begins in the southern Chukchi -

It looks a dire situation to my eyes anyway. Extent and area are record low despite lots of ice in irrelevant regions in Baffin Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk etc, and the oceans both forbodingly warm, And still another 5 days of insane warmth and wind