When Dr. Francis 1st made headlines here with her jet stream analysis and the resulting slide towards sticky weather patterns, I posted some very long comments regarding my concerns about the emerging sticky weather that, due to my nearly complete lack of scientific knowledge, was very speculative, depending solely on a very layman's perspective.
The 7 day forecast you have just posted has caused me to want to post a similar comment, actually a question for this community.
First, my assumptions:
Dr. Francis is correct. The rapidly warming Arctic is resulting in a slower, more elongated jet stream and this trend will continue. Sticky weather will be a result. I believe the recent research is supporting her argument.
My concern:
This sticky weather will not be random but, in fact, will have a stickiness to it that is a result of the jet streams interaction with the complex topography of the northern hemisphere. This is already the manner in which northern hemisphere climate and long term weather patterns occur, a very direct linkage between topography (oceans, continents etc.) and the atmosphere. We thus get persistent regional climates like the deserts of the southwest U.S., the temperate climate of the British Isles, the fantastic phenomena of tornado alley which I happen to live in and I believe is the result of an interplay between the Rocky Mountain, the Great Plains, a warm Gulf of Mexico and the jet stream. Essentially, our existing climate across the northern hemisphere already demonstrates vividly a stickiness which is due to the linkage between our topography and the atmosphere.
So, what are the major northern hemisphere topographical features? The Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the North American Rockies and Great Plains, The vast Eurasian landmass, the Himalayas, the icy expanse of Greenland and until very recently, the persistent icy Arctic. There are others I am sure (Ooops, the Mediterranean Sea).
All of us are intimately familiar with the local climate of our region and the effect of the interaction between the atmosphere and local topography. The temperate rain forest climate of the Northwestern U.S. and the previously mentioned tornado alley for example.
Sorry for the long post but the forecast just posted, I believe, is evidence of an emerging sticky pattern, high pressure ridges that frequently set up over the North Pacific and over the North Atlantic and persist over long periods and are a direct result of an increasingly strong topographical influence over a weakening jet stream where the Pacific Ocean and the Rockies and the Atlantic Ocean and, perhaps, the icy landscape of Greenland will cause sticky patterns.
Arctic cyclone cannons anyone? How about more frequent and stronger U.S. East Coast bombogenesis Nor'Easters and the desertification of the U.S. Southwest?
As the jet stream weakens, would it not be the case that topography will have a stronger influence on weather and climate, essentially begin to dictate more thoroughly the weather and climate and impose a stickiness that a stronger jet stream would often but, now, less frequently overpower?