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El Cid

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1000 on: February 21, 2018, 07:36:33 AM »
Polar Vortex splitting is starting to look like a regular pattern in winters.

And with the polar vortex splitting there comes another huge cold outbreak in Europe. These outbreaks have started to be regular features in the past couple of years. Could the warm arctic / cold continents be really the new normal?

miki

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1001 on: February 21, 2018, 07:47:52 AM »
Polar Vortex splitting is starting to look like a regular pattern in winters.

And with the polar vortex splitting there comes another huge cold outbreak in Europe. These outbreaks have started to be regular features in the past couple of years. Could the warm arctic / cold continents be really the new normal?

Probably just a transition.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1002 on: February 21, 2018, 08:32:31 AM »
Probably NOT just a Transition. Since earth.nullschool went puclic, I have never seen the Vortex collapse into just a single 1- core System over North America.
I guess these could be the last Months of the PV.

Sleepy

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1003 on: February 21, 2018, 09:03:47 AM »
i think I go to hibernation as the tabloids here predict awful Siberian coldness that is 10 degrees celsius warmer than 30 years ago that was 5 degrees celsius warmer than in the 1940s to take over the land.
Exactly my own thoughts there, PMT.
Previously forecasted colder temps here have without exeption been obscured by clouds and therefore warmer, when the forecasted day arrived.
-3.4°C today. Not much of a February winter. Not even with a slight drop to -10°'ish...
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1004 on: February 21, 2018, 10:50:31 AM »


Though if it stays somewhat open on the Arctic/Beaufort side of the straight... then I'm way more worried. I feel like that would require this insane weather (I mean, 0C+ temps! In February!) to continue for more than a month, constant split PV and all that.

Doesn't it have to get down to -11C for new ice to form ? And at higher temps there can't be much thickening. Lower temperatures than this are likely to return, but for how long? Will there be more bouts of high winds to wreck the thin ice with wave action? I think the Bering has seen its extent max for the season and it would surprise to see open water remain until the melt begins in the southern Chukchi -

It looks a dire situation to my eyes anyway. Extent and area are record low despite lots of ice in irrelevant regions in Baffin Bay and the Sea of Okhotsk etc, and the oceans both forbodingly warm, And still another 5 days of insane warmth and wind

One could argue that the Bering Sea is somewhat peripheral/ irrelevant also, and furthermore, the recent storms there could well have compressed the ice into the Chukchi- where it is certainly relevant for it to exist in order to prevent early high-arctic melt. That being said, Bering is toast.

The ice is in bad shape for winter, but I don't think it looks like were setting up for a particularly bad early-summer melt event. Especially when you look at the NH Snow Water Equivalent. Which if my memory serves me correctly, was high last year also, and in turn caused ice to linger on the Siberian coast for a surprisingly long time.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1005 on: February 21, 2018, 11:45:05 AM »
https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/966047773215854593

From Robert Rohde:
The northernmost weather station in the world, Cape Morris Jesup in Greenland has been above freezing nearly all day.

I doubt that this will help!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1006 on: February 21, 2018, 12:52:18 PM »
I would not be surprised if the 2018 summer was relatively cool and cloudy.
I would not be surprised if snow water equivalent went up some more (already way above 1SD above average?).

I would also not be surprised if warmish water continued to flow into the CAB from the Atlantic and Pacific plus a few storms to churn up ocean water at depth, and a nice sea level gradient at the pacific end to help it along.

I still reckon it will be the oceans that administer the coup de grâce to Arctic Sea Ice (but not all at once). Since 2012 Global Ocean Heat content has increased mightily - just a little bit heading north could do a lot of damage.

But what do I know? Arctic Sea Ice extent increased again yesterday (post to follow).

ps: With all this movement and bashing up of the ice will that give problems to the PIOMAS calculations this month?
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1007 on: February 21, 2018, 03:14:43 PM »
More Pole 2m temperature views for 18Z on 25/2/18 from two models, the global US and the EU version from weather dot us

Global US shows the wedge of > 0 C air going right through the pole and well beyond. EU brings it just up to the Pole.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1008 on: February 21, 2018, 03:28:30 PM »
SLP chart at same time of previous surface temp charts.

It's an "inverse dipole". Inverse to the June analysis by James Overland and Jennifer Francis from 2007 to 2012. 

romett1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1009 on: February 21, 2018, 05:44:51 PM »
The Bering Strait on feb 5 and feb 20 - it wasn't worth making a movie as in the intervening days were dominated by cloud. From dispersed floes everywhere to a stream of rotten mush flowing in to the Chukchi amidst open water. Holy Dooley
Here is Feb 6, Feb 14 and Feb 18 - 20. Last image (Feb 20) looks pretty dramatic, but of course not surprising. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1010 on: February 21, 2018, 07:32:33 PM »
And a nice little movie from:-
 https://earther.com/bering-sea-ice-is-disappearing-at-a-time-when-it-should-1823193914

Obviously, the Bering Sea is attracting attention (but not from by Fox News )

Zachary Labe again - have they given him his Ph D yet ? if not, why not ?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1011 on: February 21, 2018, 11:00:06 PM »
Extent is increasing in the Sea of Okhotsk.
For now, it looks like wind has lifted most older ice from the coast with open water freezing over as it pulls away. The second animation is a closer look at part of the windy coastline.

Images are from Worldview.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1012 on: February 21, 2018, 11:31:52 PM »
Quote
u r  making the artic sew complicated, y?
Well, it is possible to pass to lower bit depth post-processing (log210=3.22) and colorize if you like old film, sometimes less is more optically. For example, watch the Bering Sea pour across across the Strait and push the mushy Chukchi ice out of its way over the last few days.

Floe motion in the Kara Sea has been quite divergent lately, indicating a weak matrix, but it will all melt out eventually or slip out the Fram but here you might be concerned about it being the 3rd week in February.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 03:46:45 PM by A-Team »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1013 on: February 21, 2018, 11:34:25 PM »
Looks very different.
Same area.
Lincoln Sea & Nares, Feb. 23 2017 - Top.
Lincoln Sea & Nares, Feb. 21 2018 - Bottom.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 11:51:25 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1014 on: February 21, 2018, 11:35:11 PM »
Looks very different.
Same area.
North of Greenland & Fram Straight, Feb. 23 2017 - Top.
North of Greenland & Fram Straight, Feb. 21 2018 - Bottom.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 11:51:16 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1015 on: February 22, 2018, 12:03:26 AM »
Does volume max usually occur at the end of May?
Volume max in the CAB will be later than the overall max date.  Ice can continue to thicken while the periphery begins to melt.

Did not answer the question. It is a simple one. Maybe if I reword.

When does the maximum volume of arctic ice typically occur?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1016 on: February 22, 2018, 12:10:08 AM »
colorize if you like old film, sometimes less is more optically.
I think this recent feature in the Chukchi shows up slightly better in sepia

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1017 on: February 22, 2018, 12:12:33 AM »
When does the maximum volume of arctic ice typically occur?

I had thought May from memory, but PIOMAS shows April.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1018 on: February 22, 2018, 12:15:59 AM »
OK. Checked Wipneus volume graphs. Looks like volume max occurs in late April.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1019 on: February 22, 2018, 12:17:51 AM »
A lot of compaction is visible in the Chukchi in those animations but there is also a whole lot of melting going on.

Brigantine

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1020 on: February 22, 2018, 12:27:50 AM »
Slightly off topic - in the Sub-Polar Gyre, an argo float has observed (I believe for the first time this season) the mixed layer reaching below 1000m depth - and it goes right down to 1600m.
(This is effectively the floor - below roughly 1600m there is an abrupt increase in density across the whole SPG)

Float ID 4902396, Date 20180221, Time 0900, Lat 57.700N, Long -53.635E, Salinity ~34.85, Temperature ~3.1C at the surface increasing to ~3.2C at 1600m.

FWIW I think this is happening later in the season. Compared to last year anyway. (Is the whole SPG surface anomalously fresh this year?). But this Argo profile verifies the cold spot in this location at 1000m depth on Mercator Ocean.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1021 on: February 22, 2018, 12:53:21 AM »
If it does this again tomorrow then I think I can declare "bye-bye ice".  The little understood rule of chaotic systems is that strange attractors are always left behind when the system jumps to a new configuration.  Basically, the wire trails along for a few cycles, and then become meaningless.

I think WACCy is the new normal, but the next question is what "cold" means.


dosibl

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1022 on: February 22, 2018, 01:16:36 AM »
The DMI 80n anomaly will likely be even higher for the next four days, anything above 260 would be pretty rare for this time of year so it'll be interesting to see what the final numbers are.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1023 on: February 22, 2018, 01:37:43 AM »

One could argue that the Bering Sea is somewhat peripheral/ irrelevant also, and furthermore, the recent storms there could well have compressed the ice into the Chukchi- where it is certainly relevant for it to exist in order to prevent early high-arctic melt. That being said, Bering is toast.

The ice is in bad shape for winter, but I don't think it looks like were setting up for a particularly bad early-summer melt event. Especially when you look at the NH Snow Water Equivalent. Which if my memory serves me correctly, was high last year also, and in turn caused ice to linger on the Siberian coast for a surprisingly long time.


That is what I was trying to argue. I thought about comparing to the Sea of Okhotsk. Of course if it . melts earlier, there will be a little more heat (from albedo effects) in the overall system, but compared to CAB heat, it is a way smaller fraction. Yes, the Bering straight is open, but it is narrow and shallow. It *will* make a difference... just not a huge one.

I also couldn't find snowpack numbers, sadly, but figured that they would be more significant.

aperson

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1024 on: February 22, 2018, 01:48:13 AM »
If it does this again tomorrow then I think I can declare "bye-bye ice".  The little understood rule of chaotic systems is that strange attractors are always left behind when the system jumps to a new configuration.  Basically, the wire trails along for a few cycles, and then become meaningless.

I think WACCy is the new normal, but the next question is what "cold" means.

I think WACCy is a side-effect of increased meridional heat transport causing high-amplitude patterns to occur. We're settings lots of record lows and record highs this winter because of it. More long-term, I think what we're seeing is a transition to an equable climate. Once this is stable, I would expect the amplitude of gradients between ridges and troughs to be lower, not higher like we've seen now.

In this regard, I think WACCy is mostly a side effect in a chaotic regime transition that will last until the Arctic is year-round ice free and the Arctic ocean water column is closer to its new equilibrium state. The flattening of the DMI 80N seasonal curve is a proxy of this effect.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 01:59:34 AM by aperson »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1025 on: February 22, 2018, 02:06:05 AM »
If it does this again tomorrow then I think I can declare "bye-bye ice".  The little understood rule of chaotic systems is that strange attractors are always left behind when the system jumps to a new configuration.  Basically, the wire trails along for a few cycles, and then become meaningless.

I think WACCy is the new normal, but the next question is what "cold" means.
The DMI 80N temperatures are the flipped image of what we saw last year.  I think the late heat anomalies as compared to last year may actually be worse for the ice.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1026 on: February 22, 2018, 02:15:55 AM »
If it does this again tomorrow then I think I can declare "bye-bye ice".  The little understood rule of chaotic systems is that strange attractors are always left behind when the system jumps to a new configuration.  Basically, the wire trails along for a few cycles, and then become meaningless.

I think WACCy is the new normal, but the next question is what "cold" means.
The DMI 80N temperatures are the flipped image of what we saw last year.  I think the late heat anomalies as compared to last year may actually be worse for the ice.

Only flipped if you ignore the fact that it has been HOT since Late Dec 2015, but I see your point.  We have the seasonal air, plus we have the slow and fairly constant build-up of Hot Water.  The air is going to provide variation, the sea is going to melt the ice.

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Archimid

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1027 on: February 22, 2018, 02:22:34 AM »
Quote
  I think the late heat anomalies as compared to last year may actually be worse for the ice.

I agree. If we get a late freeze in the Bering sea then the Chukchi won't open until the ice in the Bering is gone, usually right around solistice. However if there is not enough ice in the Bering, like right now, the Chukchi starts opening now and take up all that extra heat, both from the sun and the south very early. That might be it for summer sea ice.

That said, there is some time left for a reasonable Bering refreeze.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1028 on: February 22, 2018, 02:33:43 AM »
Temp. anomaly in Arctic ocean is 20-25 C above normal.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1029 on: February 22, 2018, 02:43:45 AM »
A review of sea ice progression in Baffin/Labrador from 1/31-2/21 shows that the West Greenland current has possibly collapsed. In the satellite record since 2000, I cannot find another year where ice has advanced so far so rapidly.

https://media.giphy.com/media/7YC00JvirpKpNpMR0G/giphy.gif



Concurrent with the developments in Bering... something bad is clearly in progress.

Tony Mcleod

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1030 on: February 22, 2018, 03:05:28 AM »
Concurrent with the developments in Bering... something bad is clearly in progress.

Can you flesh that out a little bbr? I am asking you to speculate of course but can you summarize what is in progress?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1031 on: February 22, 2018, 03:43:19 AM »
Concurrent with the developments in Bering... something bad is clearly in progress.

Can you flesh that out a little bbr? I am asking you to speculate of course but can you summarize what is in progress?
I am not sure. It seems there is a freshwater flux cascading south towards Labrador. Or rather the expansion of sea ice has enough momentum this year due to a lack of current that ^ is happening more readily (?)

In any case, if the models are correct, the imminent 930MB cyclone impacting SE Greenland is likely to result in even more abnormal growth through the next few days. Combined with the expansion in Okhotsk this may even prove sufficient to prevent a record minimum, if the general pattern can be sustained well into March (we shall see...).


FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1032 on: February 22, 2018, 03:52:32 AM »
Cold NW winds have driven the ice in the Labrador sea southwards. There has been no collapse of the west Greenland current. It now has a surface layer of ice over it because strong winds can move ice rapidly.

Note the comment above about full mixing of the AMOC observed by a buoy. Yes, the full mixing was driven by the cold NW winds and the Greenland tip vortex. There was more warm water in the subpolar gyre this fall than last fall, I think, so it may have taken a little longer for the winter to remove enough heat to lead to full mixing. Reports of the death of the AMOC were premature.

Below is the latest wind map. There has been a large scale vortex around Greenland for over a week. in another week it will be replaced by a huge blocking high. The block will push warm southerly winds and  a surge of warm salty water up western Greenland, so we might see the ice melt there when it happens.



bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1033 on: February 22, 2018, 07:30:59 AM »
RE: FOW -- If you say so...!

In any case, any refreezing of Bering over next few days will be wiped out by D10 according to tonight's models as another major warm push enters by D8-9.



The warm pulse on the Canadian especially is rather sustained in both scope and severity...


aperson

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1034 on: February 22, 2018, 08:40:22 AM »
Non-ensemble models are not very useful after D5. This is especially true with high uncertainty patterns like we've had since the tropospheric reflection of the sudden stratospheric warming has been occurring. While betting for extremely strong warmth has been good this freezing season, I would not recommend using 8 or 10d outcomes from control runs as guidance.

GEFS and EPS would be the best tools to use in this range.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1035 on: February 22, 2018, 11:35:28 AM »

In any case, if the models are correct, the imminent 930MB cyclone impacting SE Greenland is likely to result in even more abnormal growth through the next few days. Combined with the expansion in Okhotsk this may even prove sufficient to prevent a record minimum, if the general pattern can be sustained well into March (we shall see...).


Arctic Sea Ice extent (from JAXA) up by 202 k in the last 4 days (Feb 18 to 21). NSIDC regional data will tell us where later today.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1036 on: February 22, 2018, 01:18:09 PM »
So while ice forms and flows down Baffin on the west side of Greenland, on the East side strong southerly winds are shoving atmospheric and oceanic warmth way, way up North. (Image from weather-forecast.com - my aged eyes need big arrows, even though the site still gets "H" and "L" wrong on a regular basis).

Second image - from cci-reanalyzer - suggests that Baffin is going to get some warmth in a few days. Will it stop ice growth there?

A tale of two halves indeed.

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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1037 on: February 22, 2018, 04:24:42 PM »
Nares/Lincoln Sea. Feb19 and 22.
Yes, different. More land fast ice lifting away.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1038 on: February 22, 2018, 04:56:30 PM »
More on the Kara Sea event, another month long drawn-out arch collapse like Nares and Fram, now taking in the last local landfast ice among the islands off the Tamyr Peninsula. Clouds often obscure the view of Suomi NPP VIIRS band 15 night (meaning a lot of days are skipped in the slide show) but it otherwise produces spectacular vistas of the 200,000 sq km affected by the collapse.

The first mp4 compares the perspectives over the last 52 days from AMSR2 UH, OSI-SAF drift, SMOS UB thin ice and Ascat ice roughness. The dates may be somewhat asynchronized as swath timing varies; also the Kara is fairly small relative to resolution, especially for the two-day drift analyses. The ice is a little easier to track in Ascat 2x re-contrasted indexed posterized color, second mp4.

The final image from @zlabe shows a remarkable warm vapor trail from mid-latitude coming up the Fram this weekend and extending up past the north pole.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 05:23:31 PM by A-Team »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1039 on: February 22, 2018, 05:16:02 PM »
Hello everybody. I didn't want to post that early this year because it feels like a commitment to be very close and up to date to the discussion – something not possible for me at this moment, but ... this just looks too dramatic:
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1040 on: February 22, 2018, 05:21:30 PM »
What are the chances that the summer melting season will be slower than in other years? I know last year ~2 months of above-average cloud cover decreased melting by a lot.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1041 on: February 22, 2018, 05:29:41 PM »
Thawing Thunder, notice how the area of apparent low ice concentration maps conformably with the intrusion of saline Pacific water into the Arctic at 30m depth on the Mercator Ocean model.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1042 on: February 22, 2018, 06:21:02 PM »
Quote
low ice concentration maps conformably with the intrusion of saline Pacific water into the Arctic
Right. Below is last two weeks of Ascat sea ice over UH sea ice thinness which is closely related to bulk surface salinity (which is also offered as a UH netCDF Geo2D).

Quote
Yes, different. More land fast ice lifting away.
Right, ice is backing out slightly from the Fram and peeling off a bit from Lincoln Sea quiet zone.

PolarView has a very nice Sentinel-1AB swath from the 22nd showing the Lincoln lift-off and condition.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 07:03:40 PM by A-Team »

seaice.de

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1043 on: February 22, 2018, 06:51:04 PM »
SMOS sea ice thickness area shows record lows in all categories.

Attention
1) some fake loss because of high temperatures,
2) area change do not mean total volume change.

Wait for complementary CryoSat2 updates!

Koop in VA

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1044 on: February 22, 2018, 06:52:49 PM »
Hello everybody. I didn't want to post that early this year because it feels like a commitment to be very close and up to date to the discussion – something not possible for me at this moment, but ... this just looks too dramatic:

I would counter that it is actually quite normal... for mid to late May.   :o

At least based on the last 6 years of data over at the regional graphs tab for the Bering.  So the Bering is running basically 3 months ahead of schedule this year based on extent.  Typically peak isn't reached until March in the Bering and so I'm still hopeful for a minor rebound but it is looking like the peak has already been reached this year.




echoughton

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1045 on: February 22, 2018, 07:59:08 PM »
Wish to GOD Neven would free up some of those frozen millions he has squirreled away and get some damn boots on the ground up there! SHEESH. How in the name of Saint Donald am I supposed to decipher those Sat photos, Pixel-dust reanalyzed models gizmos and home-grown drawings of Lord-knows what? How I long for the day of Polaroid and Kodak.....Polar and Kodiak? 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1046 on: February 22, 2018, 08:28:32 PM »
Wish to GOD Neven would free up some of those frozen millions he has squirreled away and get some damn boots on the ground up there! SHEESH. How in the name of Saint Donald am I supposed to decipher those Sat photos, Pixel-dust reanalyzed models gizmos and home-grown drawings of Lord-knows what? How I long for the day of Polaroid and Kodak.....Polar and Kodiak? 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

Want to see a video ? Goto Sigmetnow's post (link below) and follow her link until you find the video which shows the reality of disappearing Arctic Sea Ice

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg143142.html#msg143142
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1047 on: February 22, 2018, 08:41:31 PM »
DMI updates its 80o+ North image at 19.00 hours on the same day. So here is the image for today, the 22nd February.
Looking back at previous years, at 260 kelvin it looks like a record for day 53 of the year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1048 on: February 22, 2018, 09:47:37 PM »
A possible 963hPa low on monday. GFS nullschool.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1049 on: February 22, 2018, 10:31:35 PM »
Hello everybody. I didn't want to post that early this year because it feels like a commitment to be very close and up to date to the discussion – something not possible for me at this moment, but ... this just looks too dramatic:

I would counter that it is actually quite normal... for mid to late May.   :o

At least based on the last 6 years of data over at the regional graphs tab for the Bering.  So the Bering is running basically 3 months ahead of schedule this year based on extent.  Typically peak isn't reached until March in the Bering and so I'm still hopeful for a minor rebound but it is looking like the peak has already been reached this year.
Average growth of extent in the Bering from this date to max is less than 100,000KM2.  Maximum growth appears to be 200,000-ish KM2.  The Bering may have already seen its regional max.  It may finish with the lowest recorded regional max.
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