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Sterks

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1250 on: March 05, 2018, 12:28:08 AM »
Forgot to post how I have divided the Arctic in four sectors:
Interesting to note (surely not the first) that the two sectors with clear positive trends are the ones named after the Pac and Atl oceans, while the two sectors with no clear trend are basically the continental ones.

ArcticMelt1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1251 on: March 05, 2018, 12:29:28 AM »
Thoughts anyone?

I think super-melting in 2018 most depends heavily on the arrival of a strong La Niño.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1252 on: March 05, 2018, 01:56:15 AM »
Here are some more NCEP Reanalysis temperature graphs for February. Atlantic was 2nd highest on record, Siberian 4th highest, Pacific numero uno, but Canadian 33rd highest on record (if I counted correctly, I only have 10 fingers). The Arctic as a whole second warmest on record, after being second in October, 4th in November, first in December and second in January.

If you take the whole freezing season, then it is the warmest regardless of latitude (in all variants from 65, 70, 80 degrees north latitude).

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1253 on: March 05, 2018, 02:09:02 AM »


Strange contradiction. In the Danes, the current freezing season is in second place, in NOAA in the first place.


iceman

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1254 on: March 05, 2018, 02:31:15 AM »
  ....
This suggests to me that we are going to start the season in a substantially worse state of preconditioning conducive to melt than last year. 
  ....

I lean toward Daniel B's view, though not necessarily on the same reasoning. Much of the ice-cover deficit is at high latitudes, so the water there will be losing an unusually large amount of heat even after the start of the melting season.

It appears that the vortex split will work to inhibit ice growth during the typically last few weeks of the freezing season.  We may still see a new low in maximum ice.  The corollary to this is that the Eurasian cold may work to stifle any early ice melt.  We will likely see a much flatter curve this year than in the past.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1255 on: March 05, 2018, 06:47:20 AM »
That might slow things on the Atlantic side, but this year, I'm more concerned about what has happened to the ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort.

There is an awful lot of water locked up in snow cover right now, more than usual, and I'm thinking in particular of N. America.  That might slow heating as the sun returns, but I don't think it will enough, and as a bunch of that snow is under boreal forest, it won't slow it down there at *all*.

That means much more water to export heat from lower latitudes into the CAA, Beaufort and Hudson's bay.  I think it will have a noticeable impact.

I hope very much for cloudy weather.  VERY much.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1256 on: March 05, 2018, 12:48:21 PM »
Ice transport does not much care as to the temps where the ice hailed from ,more where it is headed?
If we are to see the central basin regain its cold over the coming weeks that hints at H.P. in the basin and with the Atlantic wide awake Lows pushing into the Barentsz/Greenland sea?

The 'lift off' off ice along the Greenland north shore means there is little solid contacts to act as drag for any southerlies the ice may encounter so we may see export being a major contributor to ice loss early in the season?

Beaufort appears to be playing 'catch up' with the Atlantic side of the basin which has been open since the turn of the century. With no huge opening ( like we have on the Atlantic side) this means the losses are on the Bering side of Beaufort so opening up the rest of Beaufort to collapse and spread under any wind/wave forcings that might present?

The other thing is the weather over the basin? We have seen a run of cloudy/cool years since 2013 and we might be lulled into thinking that this is all down to changes in ice cover over the basin but what if solar cycle also plays a role?

We know that , over winter, the atlantic basin tends to see more 'northern blocking' so an increase in settled high pressure ( and inviting in the beast from the east) but what if low solar also plays a part in the pressure distribution over summer in the basin? Any move to HP dominance and clear ,sunny conditions is not what is needed right now but when we look back to last time we were in the lower end of the solar cycle it is there we see our record breaking years.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1257 on: March 05, 2018, 01:50:22 PM »
Nullshool temperature forecast for tomorrow evening. More 'weather' between Greenland and the north pole. Not forgetting that cyclone over Beaufort/Chukchi.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1258 on: March 05, 2018, 03:21:48 PM »
North of 80 getting colder (DMI image below)

By 10 March cci-reanalyzer has Arctic Temperature Anomaly at 0.0 degrees.

Looking at actual temperatures, there is warmth in the peripheral areas especially in the afternoons  (2nd image - 3 am, last image 3 pm)-
Barents, Greenland and the southern end of Baffin down to Newfoundland look warm enoughin places for ice loss.

Not many more days to the Equinox. There is warmth in that sun creeping north
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 03:27:58 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1259 on: March 05, 2018, 07:44:17 PM »
The Gulf of St Lawrence had a large ice loss over the past 3 days and ice retreated in the Labrador sea. The ice that's the furthest south has started melting but the central Arctic will remain cold for weeks.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1260 on: March 05, 2018, 08:43:30 PM »
The Gulf of St Lawrence had a large ice loss over the past 3 days and ice retreated in the Labrador sea. The ice that's the furthest south has started melting but the central Arctic will remain cold for weeks.
Yep. The big push at 500MB did that. I think it should expand beyond past bounds though (maybe not St. Lawrence, but Labrador), as the "venting" of the upper atmosphere should keep the region fairly cold for a few weeks in the wake of the passage of the huge anomaly.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1261 on: March 05, 2018, 08:44:53 PM »
The sea ice pack continues to move. North of Greenland still with warm most cloud over over the area that pulled north. Nares still seems to be moving, given the fracturing. Also more area along the Canadian Arctic islands continues to break away.

While ridging will occur, it seems we are close to extent maximum, and not much time to thicken the pack with all this motion.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1262 on: March 05, 2018, 08:49:40 PM »
I hope the CAB remains cold for more than mere "weeks"!  Historically, IIRC, the CAB continues to thicken into May (with movement or without).
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1263 on: March 05, 2018, 09:12:16 PM »
The sea ice pack continues to move. North of Greenland still with warm most cloud over over the area that pulled north. Nares still seems to be moving, given the fracturing. Also more area along the Canadian Arctic islands continues to break away.

While ridging will occur, it seems we are close to extent maximum, and not much time to thicken the pack with all this motion.

I don't know much about the CAA but, from that image, does Lancaster Sound look more open than it should this year? It is rubble well into Barrow Strait and does not appear solid until past Somerset Island.

Combine this with the shape of the ice in MClure Strait and the Northwest passage may open early this year.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 09:18:13 PM by Shared Humanity »

numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1264 on: March 05, 2018, 10:08:48 PM »
There is warmth in that sun creeping north

There's heat in the sun if it hits a dark surface.

The temperature in my house is still rising despite the heat having been off from 10am to 4pm (it just came on, presumably to heat up the hot water tank). Outside, there's evidence of melt on a tire I put on the compost bin to thwart the wind, and evidence of melt off the roof, but the snow on the ground isn't melting at all.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1265 on: March 05, 2018, 10:28:53 PM »
DMI North of 80 - 5th March

Down some more. Will it hit the green line in the next few days

ps: cci-reanalyzer says Arctic Temp anomaly 0.0 by March 9, and -2.1 (yes, minus) by March 14.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 10:41:45 PM by gerontocrat »
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1266 on: March 06, 2018, 02:22:29 AM »
A lot of the cold anomalies are over land in the next five days except the kara sea. There's still a lot of relative warmth in the Oceanic sectors. I've attached the 5 day anomaly map

In the far off quasi-fantasy land 228 hours out gfs shows continuing cold in western Siberia and far northern Russia and the Kara Sea, and also developing in the Beaufort on the other side, The DMI 80n chart might just hit the green line - but central areas are not anomalously cold. That's good news, but not great news, it's a bit late. With melt in peripheral areas commencing we may have hit maximum, or just about.  It's not to be taken too seriously but I've also attached the  map anyway

I

subgeometer

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1267 on: March 06, 2018, 02:29:51 AM »
Here's the actual temperature forecast for the next 5 days. The Bering remains close the the melting point and southern Baffin bay and Gulf of st Lawrwnce also warm

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1268 on: March 06, 2018, 03:04:12 AM »
Quote
Martin Stendel, lead scientist of the Polar Portal and a senior researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, said temperatures in the central Arctic have been 4C warmer than average this winter. In February, several regions were 10C above historic norms. Despite fluctuations, he expects this trend to continue.

The Danish media joked that residents should visit the Arctic special forces base at Daneborg because it is warmer there.

The Information newspaper interviewed a member of the Sirius Dog Sled Patrol at the base – one of the most northern permanent outposts of humanity – who said the high temperature had turned snow into slush and made sledding heavy.

One member of the Arctic Patrol described the effect as surreal. “Outside, the dogs lie on their backs boiling and we dance around in our underwear enjoying it.”
link


Please send them some shorts.  We don't want them dancing around in their underwear.   ;D
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1269 on: March 06, 2018, 11:57:09 AM »
Are we at peak extent despite falling temperatures in the arctic center?
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1270 on: March 06, 2018, 12:19:51 PM »
Are we at peak extent despite falling temperatures in the arctic center?

A cold centre does not mean cold peripheries? We may see some thickening of the ice under the DMI 80N's area but we will not see much in the way of 'freeze' in the peripherals though we may see 'collapse and spread' where ice breaks up and floats into ice free squares beyond the "%% cover trigger point. This ice will continue on its merry way and so either melt or again fall below the 25% trigger and 'blink out'?

World view on the visible channels is now showing the area NE of Svalbard and there are some rapid moving flows heading south there? upticks in Greenland/Barentsz this time of year is normally ice heading for the exit?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1271 on: March 06, 2018, 01:59:19 PM »
Barents sea Mar3-6. wind ~30km, air temp -13/-18C, sst?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1272 on: March 06, 2018, 02:44:02 PM »
Thanks to Wipneus for the latest piomas modeled ice thickness chart.

Worldview brightness temperature band 15 view of the 4m thick area north of CAA on Mar4th (clearest day since then) with a closer view.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1273 on: March 06, 2018, 04:02:26 PM »
Good conditions for virtual exploration today.
https://tinyurl.com/y7llofq5

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1274 on: March 06, 2018, 04:30:12 PM »
Over at the Pacific end, what will the winds on Friday do to the ice in the Bering Strait and Sea ?
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1275 on: March 06, 2018, 06:34:36 PM »
Over at the Pacific end, what will the winds on Friday do to the ice in the Bering Strait and Sea ?
Bering Sea is rough this week. Wondering how can ice form with waves like 4 - 7 m. This image is for Thursday, on the other hand it's getting colder after Saturday and Sunday, currently showing temps -16 °C for Bering Strait (on Sunday).

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1276 on: March 06, 2018, 06:47:09 PM »
All together it's not looking that good, first it gets broken. And than blowen into the warmer water.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1277 on: March 06, 2018, 06:47:54 PM »
With the atmospheric angular momentum about to take another wild excursion this ride is far from over!

The last wild swing was 4 s.d.'s from the norm and drove the SSW whilst looping the polar Jet into the basin giving us our above freezing plume.

Todays GFS forecast shows it over 5 s.d.'s!!!! The first plot is for the 6th of march and that is already over 2 s.d.'s from the average and the next plot is off the chart ( so we will only need wait a few days to see if it verifies?)

If 4 s.d.'s loops the polar jet into the high arctic could the over 5 s.d. departure have enough energy to push it over the pole and out the other side?

Normally ,and in a very simplified way, south of the jet is spring/summer and north of it winter. Imagine if half the basin were suddenly open to African Warm Air Advection????

Mom! we broke the weather!!!
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dnem

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1278 on: March 06, 2018, 07:11:46 PM »
G-W, what is "it" in your post?  What parameter is 4-5 SDs from the norm?

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1279 on: March 06, 2018, 07:55:03 PM »
Mom! we broke the weather!!!
:o The stratospheric PV had a brief recovery but now it's forecasted to tank again. Still could be a couple weeks or more of things being relatively cool, if one were to consider trends based on this forecast and the time it takes for the stratospheric easterly flow to propagate down to the troposphere.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

Edit: To get current info from a pro - see Dr. Cohen's update https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
« Last Edit: March 06, 2018, 08:23:44 PM by Ice Shieldz »

oren

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1280 on: March 06, 2018, 08:24:49 PM »
G-W, what is "it" in your post?  What parameter is 4-5 SDs from the norm?
I know less than zero on the subject, but G-W has posted more info on another thread. The parameter in question is total averaged atmospheric angular momentum.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg144878.html#msg144878

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1281 on: March 06, 2018, 09:00:32 PM »
even though i recently mentioned that i don't expect huge gains anymore this season (gains against the situation about a week ago) development still surprises me right now, did not expect such a huge drop, especially due to the falling temps >80N while looking at the ice which is even there, it in places appears very "swiss cheese" like if the analogy is allowed :-)

further there are a few very good posts in the piomas thread that explain a lot of the gut feeling about the model a lot more better than what i meant when i said that the model needs to be worked over sooner or later. after all we're on record low, coming from low volumes and there was not much freezing momentum during winter that would explain the result IMO.

however general development is as expected and well documented thanks to all the skilled folks in this forum and others.

dnem

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1282 on: March 06, 2018, 09:07:02 PM »
G-W, what is "it" in your post?  What parameter is 4-5 SDs from the norm?
I know less than zero on the subject, but G-W has posted more info on another thread. The parameter in question is total averaged atmospheric angular momentum.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg144878.html#msg144878

TY Oren.  That helps explain what he was referring to. Mostly!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1283 on: March 06, 2018, 09:34:24 PM »
did not expect such a huge drop
Nullschool forecast for Mar9, Sea of Okhotsk. 2017 again?
https://tinyurl.com/ydxuspqt
3 days out so may not be accurate.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1284 on: March 07, 2018, 02:29:34 AM »
The Madden Julian Oscillation, a train of equatorial thunderstorms that generally moves from west to east, was the most intense it has ever been measured in February before the polar vortex split and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Planetary wave number 2 was very strong, breaking upwards into the top of the stratosphere, causing intense heating there.

Momentum from the formerly strong stratospheric polar jet was effectively transferred downwards after the SSW.

Now the jet stream in the troposphere has pushed southwards over both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Portugal and Spain are going to get some very strong storms over the next week then the British Isles will get stormy. New England has been hammered by a strong wind storm, now they will get hammered by perhaps 20 inches of snow (half a metre). And California is getting much needed rain. I'm sure there's wild weather across southern Asia, too.

This is a wild, rapid transition from winter to spring. Climate change may be making the transition more extreme.

Note that the extremely high NH atmospheric angular momentum implies that the jet stream is blasting at maximum speed while expanded as far from the pole as it gets. This is going to be a wild weather week.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1285 on: March 07, 2018, 04:05:51 AM »
Good conditions for virtual exploration today.
https://tinyurl.com/y7llofq5

Anyone else having no success getting any response from either worldview or sentinel 1a/b today?
All day whatever computer or browser I try from.

Hope there's a mundane explanation for this. 
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1286 on: March 07, 2018, 04:10:32 AM »
Momentum from the formerly strong stratospheric polar jet was effectively transferred downwards after the SSW.

Does this increase in AAM result in stronger Rossby wavebreaks? Intuitively to me, it seems like this would result in stronger meridional heat transport when the flow inevitably stops being laminar. I would expect this to lead to higher temperature+moisture anomalies in the medium range once the high AAM subsides, but this is all just hobbyist conjecture.

oren

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1287 on: March 07, 2018, 06:48:39 AM »
Anyone else having no success getting any response from either worldview or sentinel 1a/b today?
Worldview working fine for me.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1288 on: March 07, 2018, 07:52:38 AM »
Elvis has left the building.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1289 on: March 07, 2018, 09:52:52 AM »
This Angular Momentum thing - and SSW aftermath. I was going to post jet stream images a day or two ago and ask whether the polar vortex has become the tropical vortex in many places.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1290 on: March 07, 2018, 11:33:55 AM »
Is that a single cell [with local idiosyncracies] i see before me?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=0.97,92.44,311

romett1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1291 on: March 07, 2018, 12:52:13 PM »
Seems like not the best news for Bering Sea - brief cold spell (or historical normal) over Bering Sea lasts only few days, starting from Monday switching back to heat mode. Image: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

colchonero

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1292 on: March 07, 2018, 12:53:28 PM »
Is this (climate reanalyzer photo) a polar jet stream or subtropical jet stream? Just asking, because I don't know, and want to make sure.

pccp82

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1293 on: March 07, 2018, 01:20:32 PM »
colchonero--

i would encourage you to use the
 https://earth.nullschool.net website and play around with it. 250 Hpa layer offers the best view for jet streams.


colchonero

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1294 on: March 07, 2018, 01:29:47 PM »
 Thanks, but I'm not that good at that part of meteorology(jet stream, stratosphere etc.), so I can't figure out which one is on gerontocrat's images. To me it looks like they mix with each other, but I still don't know if that's polar jet or subtropical jet in gerontocrat's post.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1295 on: March 07, 2018, 02:25:37 PM »
Thanks, but I'm not that good at that part of meteorology(jet stream, stratosphere etc.), so I can't figure out which one is on gerontocrat's images. To me it looks like they mix with each other, but I still don't know if that's polar jet or subtropical jet in gerontocrat's post.

Nor do I! Join the crowd. That is the point. Is it all falling apart ? Did Mom break the weather ? Has Elvis left the building ?

ps: Meteorology is really, really hard even if you've got a big building full up super-computers.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1296 on: March 07, 2018, 02:50:55 PM »
From what I can see of the Nullschool image the polar jet is merging with the subtropical jet around ( well below ) us Europeans and our settler pals over in the U.S. and round to Asia?

The polar Jet separates the Cell over the pole from the cell in the mid lat's and the sub tropical jet forms the boundary between the tropical cell and the mid latitude Cell.

We are supposed to have 3 cells each hemisphere...that's how it works!....supposed to....

« Last Edit: March 07, 2018, 03:00:01 PM by Gray-Wolf »
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1297 on: March 07, 2018, 03:57:28 PM »
I think if you start at 10 hPa, then 70, before looking at 250 you will find that there is still a polar jet, however it is over Russia, not the Pole.  It also doesn't look to be in very good shape, and could be collapsing.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1298 on: March 07, 2018, 04:32:51 PM »
Hi Dharma!

The polar night Jet did indeed migrate from Canada/Baffin over to Siberia but it is nearing its end esp. positioned in the sun at its southern edge?

Once the final warming is over we will get to see whether the slack flows of the Polar jet persist and allow high pressure to predominate in our hemisphere this year?

I do worry that low solar may well push us into high latitude 'blocking' and so give a less cloudy melt season ( fogs and low cloud from melt ongoing but that just leads to downwelling radiation as various missions over summer in the high Arctic have measured?).
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1299 on: March 07, 2018, 06:55:49 PM »
The polar night Jet did indeed migrate from Canada/Baffin over to Siberia but it is nearing its end esp. positioned in the sun at its southern edge?

Once the final warming is over we will get to see whether the slack flows of the Polar jet persist and allow high pressure to predominate in our hemisphere this year?

I do worry that low solar may well push us into high latitude 'blocking' and so give a less cloudy melt season ( fogs and low cloud from melt ongoing but that just leads to downwelling radiation as various missions over summer in the high Arctic have measured?).

Someone either up-thread or in another thread said that two Hadley Cells isn't stable, and it is either three or one.  Not sure I understood the argument, but it seemed reasonable to me.  If so, and the Polar Cell does really collapse then there could be a very sudden large climate change.  The vortex fades every spring, but that is not a complete collapse of the cell.