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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1300 on: March 07, 2018, 08:36:49 PM »
Is that a single cell [with local idiosyncracies] i see before me?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=0.97,92.44,311

I reckon it is. Both hemispheres too.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/equirectangular

Though it could be the dark horse of a stable two cell that no-ones supercomputers and models thought possible as far as I know.

perhaps the Atlantean projection with mean sea level pressure shows it best.
Mid-Latitude low pressure upwelling, equatorial and polar high pressure downwelling.
Basically polar and Ferrel Cells. Mr Hadley has gone to Mars for a holiday. Or permanent emigration.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/atlantis=-32.21,0.83,109
« Last Edit: March 07, 2018, 08:53:26 PM by Hyperion »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1301 on: March 07, 2018, 08:55:03 PM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?

I have seen occasions, in recent years, where the subtropical and polar jet have had a coming together but have never seen such a large coming together ( 2/3rds of the hemisphere?) and never with the Southern hemisphere joining in?

If this is the final fling of the energies imparted into the system from the open waters last Autumn then it is very worrying indeed!

Imagine what a blue Ocean event could drive over the autumn/winter following it?

So best to sit back and see what we see?

Weather models are showing another cold shot for the UK way out in 'Fantasy Island' land ( FI at 240hrs) and we can all guess where that cold must come from this time of year?

With folk waiting on an Arctic cooldown this might be a very big fly in the ointment!

Cold for one week over the basin will not achieve much esp. if we then see above freezing temps again sweep the basin?
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1302 on: March 07, 2018, 09:49:22 PM »
DMI North of 80 7th March

Going down.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1303 on: March 07, 2018, 10:04:34 PM »
I'm constantly amazed at the glee we see, from folk out in the wider world, at the prospects of a measure hitting 'Average'?

No surprise that we also see these folk constantly advising us that what we are currently seeing is 'nothing new'/'all happened before'?

Why , if it is nothing new, do they appear so animated at a measure reaching average?

Sadly , as ever , they will find themselves drawing attention to a measure as it is again about to hit the roof!

Hey Ho!
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1304 on: March 07, 2018, 10:06:50 PM »
did not expect such a huge drop
Nullschool forecast for Mar9, Sea of Okhotsk. 2017 again?

which is why i explicitly mentioned that i refer to the state about a week ago, around march 1st.

i did not say or mean much about the future, there can be ups and downs over several days and no-one knows when what happens, while the only thing i said, looking into the future, was that i do no expect significant gains, again looking at things from a point around march 1st.

further ,even if one region will see gains which is well possible considering the amount of open water basically ready to freeze upon any 3-5 days extra cold weather period. there willl most probably be other regions to compensate a big part of it.

result we're around or have already seen max IMO, okhotsk is way to small to impact the overall result on that scale IMO

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1305 on: March 07, 2018, 10:19:40 PM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?

Opening topic for the thawing thread?

This might just be an early Spring at the North Pole...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1306 on: March 07, 2018, 10:23:02 PM »
The snowball in the Senate types appear to totally miss the point that their 'leverage' is really the final death rattle of the Arctic... speaks volumes of them really?

hey ho!
KOYAANISQATSI

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1307 on: March 07, 2018, 10:26:19 PM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?

Opening topic for the thawing thread?

This might just be an early Spring at the North Pole...

Methinks the Guv'nor wants more evidence before opening the melting thread. Given the weirdness of this transition period, I am glad it is his problem.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1308 on: March 07, 2018, 10:31:06 PM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?
Opening topic for the thawing thread?

This might just be an early Spring at the North Pole...
Methinks the Guv'nor wants more evidence before opening the melting thread. Given the weirdness of this transition period, I am glad it is his problem.
Yup!  But things could become very interesting if the Polar Cell really goes away -- Tropical temperatures at the Pole.  Isn't that the implication of a two cell system being unstable?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1309 on: March 07, 2018, 10:34:38 PM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?
Opening topic for the thawing thread?

This might just be an early Spring at the North Pole...
Methinks the Guv'nor wants more evidence before opening the melting thread. Given the weirdness of this transition period, I am glad it is his problem.
Yup!  But things could become very interesting if the Polar Cell really goes away -- Tropical temperatures at the Pole.  Isn't that the implication of a two cell system being unstable?
The answer is "42" (or I don't have a clue)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1310 on: March 07, 2018, 10:39:20 PM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?
Opening topic for the thawing thread?

This might just be an early Spring at the North Pole...
Methinks the Guv'nor wants more evidence before opening the melting thread. Given the weirdness of this transition period, I am glad it is his problem.
Yup!  But things could become very interesting if the Polar Cell really goes away -- Tropical temperatures at the Pole.  Isn't that the implication of a two cell system being unstable?
The answer is "42" (or I don't have a clue)
Nor I.....It was just last fall that I first heard that a two cell system was unstable...and I am not knowledgeable enough to evaluate that statement....however, it seems to me that if the hot air rises at the equator and falls at the pole it isn't going to be good.

Archimid

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1311 on: March 07, 2018, 10:45:22 PM »
I think the big question is the Bering. It is in the worst shape ever, but conditions seem great for some fast growth in the Bering over the next couple of day. If that cold holds for the rest of the month, the bering could grow somewhere close to historical levels and give us a late maximum that is not record low.

I think it's the correct call.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1312 on: March 08, 2018, 12:04:31 AM »
Should be very interesting to see how the Bering responds to the cold air, since the water there was generally above normal and the amount of solar insolation has increased. Also there could be some decent wave action given the winds.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1313 on: March 08, 2018, 12:36:50 AM »
Over at the Pacific end, what will the winds on Friday do to the ice in the Bering Strait and Sea ?
Bering Sea is rough this week. Wondering how can ice form with waves like 4 - 7 m. This image is for Thursday, on the other hand it's getting colder after Saturday and Sunday, currently showing temps -16 °C for Bering Strait (on Sunday).
-16C is barely enough to get grease ice, much less thicken any existing.  If we have rough conditions, it will not be enough to overcome heat transfer, and ice will be unlikely to form.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1314 on: March 08, 2018, 02:07:45 AM »
Updated forecast from the NWS for the Bering Sea:

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (Days 1 through 5)...Stronger
southwesterly winds will continue through Thursday morning. The
winds and waves will continue to destroy much of the sea ice between
Nunivak Island and Saint Lawrence Island. On Thursday, strong
northwesterly winds will bring a much colder air mass back over the
area, however, new ice will not begin to form until the winds
weaken, which will be Saturday, before the next front comes in.
Expect the ice edge to melt and retreat 15 to 20 nm through
Thursday. After Thursday expect the pack to advect back to the south
10 to 20 nm through Monday. New growth of ice should take off in
areas of open water from the northwest Bering Sea toward Nunivak
Island after Sunday once the winds subside.

cesium62

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1315 on: March 08, 2018, 04:35:45 AM »
Expect the ice edge to melt and retreat 15 to 20 nm through
Thursday. After Thursday expect the pack to advect back to the south
10 to 20 nm

Wowza.  Tens of nanometers of melt and growth every few days.  Whiplash!
 :o
[Well, I thought it was funny...]

cesium62

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1316 on: March 08, 2018, 04:47:13 AM »
I think maybe we should sit back for a week and see what occurs next?

Opening topic for the thawing thread?

This might just be an early Spring at the North Pole...

Methinks the Guv'nor wants more evidence before opening the melting thread. Given the weirdness of this transition period, I am glad it is his problem.

Based on a poll of a small sample of recent warm winters, I'd give it an 80% chance that we haven't seen peak NSIDC extent yet.  Amongst 2017, 2016, 2015, 2011, and 2007, only 2017 didn't oscillate upwards by 64km^2 or more at some point in march after day 65.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2018, 08:30:56 AM by cesium62 »

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1317 on: March 08, 2018, 05:20:04 AM »
For those who are familiar with only the SI-system of measurenment, nm means, not only the nanometer, but also nautical mile, a relict of the Empire of Britain that is still used as a measurement of mile over the seas and oceans, this is not the same as the mile, 1600m but larger, probably for the oceans are so vast. Nautical mile is about 1852m. If you want to know the exact lenght of these, you should consult the book of navigation printed in 1700s by the british royal navy. (sorry, OT)
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oren

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1318 on: March 08, 2018, 07:51:55 AM »
Expect the ice edge to melt and retreat 15 to 20 nm through
Thursday. After Thursday expect the pack to advect back to the south
10 to 20 nm

Wowza.  Tens of nanometers of melt and growth every few days.  Whiplash!
 :o
[Well, I thought it was funny...]
I guess it was. I laughed out loud...

Sleepy

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1319 on: March 08, 2018, 08:05:42 AM »
This Angular Momentum thing - and SSW aftermath. I was going to post jet stream images a day or two ago and ask whether the polar vortex has become the tropical vortex in many places.

Thanks, but I'm not that good at that part of meteorology(jet stream, stratosphere etc.), so I can't figure out which one is on gerontocrat's images. To me it looks like they mix with each other, but I still don't know if that's polar jet or subtropical jet in gerontocrat's post.

Nor do I! Join the crowd. That is the point. Is it all falling apart ? Did Mom break the weather ? Has Elvis left the building ?

ps: Meteorology is really, really hard even if you've got a big building full up super-computers.

The animation I posted above your first reply, yesterday was from 20mb and only regarding the recent SSW, it's gone and so is the effects on our weather.

The other answer is that you will most likely never see the SubTropicalJet at 250mb in 2-D, where the PolarFrontJet typically is located. Adding a cross section from 15 February 2006, NH over east Asia. 10,000m is roughly 250mb and 14,000m is roughly 150mb.
And there are also large changes in altitude involved, the PFJ is between 7-12km and the STJ is between 10-16km.

And the Hadley cell will probably not engulf the Polar cell any time soon, because Earth's rotational speed and the Coriolis forces will make that very difficult. We would need to have the same (slow) rotational speed as Venus for that to happen. Change does not equal collapse.

If you are interested in the angular momentum paradox and the STJ, you might wish to read this as a starter, by Anders Persson, the troubled story of the subtropical jet stream starts at page 22 24. Edit; wrong page number.
https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/hisnews0215_0.pdf
That story will at least make all of us a bit more comfortable, realizing that this is not an easy and not even a settled issue, among meteorologists.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2018, 08:23:21 AM by Sleepy »
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abraca

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1320 on: March 08, 2018, 10:03:11 AM »
For those who are familiar with only the SI-system of measurenment, nm means, not only the nanometer, but also nautical mile.
Not true! nm is only the nanometer. NM or nmi is nautical mile. In SI the capitalization of each letter plays crucial role, like for example mW is far from MW, like kWh is kilowatthour and kWH would be kilowatt-henry, and like Nm is newton meter, nm is nanometer and NM is nautical mile.

Sailaway

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1321 on: March 08, 2018, 11:15:32 AM »
For those who are familiar with only the SI-system of measurenment, nm means, not only the nanometer, but also nautical mile.
Not true! nm is only the nanometer. NM or nmi is nautical mile. In SI the capitalization of each letter plays crucial role, like for example mW is far from MW, like kWh is kilowatthour and kWH would be kilowatt-henry, and like Nm is newton meter, nm is nanometer and NM is nautical mile.

You can be wrong even if you are right. In this case it refers to Nautical Miles.

The forecast came from https://www.weather.gov/afc/ice and is for the use of mariners and others. Happy that i could assist you.  :D

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1322 on: March 08, 2018, 11:30:15 AM »
realizing that this is not an easy and not even a settled issue, among meteorologists.

Seeing as what we have been watching is extreme excursions of atmospheric angular momentum ( 4 s.d.'s to kick start the sequence leading to the SSW and now odd forecasts with more high deviations from the norm of the N. Hemisphere's atmospheric angular momentum) The disagreement within atmospheric scientists does not leave me feeling reassured?

The energy that sees the polar Jet so far south as to appear to merge with the Subtropical Jet means that there must still be quite a potential amount of angular momentum yet to manifest as the jet returns to a more 'normal' station?

I'm sure we've all waggled a skipping rope on the floor to make waves in the rope? To make the big waves needs quite a violent waggle of the end of the rope ( compared to making a shallower wave?) so the Polar Jet has had a bloody big 'waggle' to find itself so far south and surely it must travel back to a more average position and this movement must indicate a lot of atmospheric angular momentum as the airmass bounded by the Jet  is pushed back north?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1323 on: March 08, 2018, 05:24:26 PM »
I was surprised at the area of ice in the Sea of Okhotsk when I checked the regional data figures. Currently around 0.8 million square kilometers(wipneus). That's more than recent maximums in the Barents.
It all melts, but when?
We are currently seeing a small increase due to wind driven expansion that is taking the last of the thicker coastal ice out to sea. Nullschool is forecasting a cyclone passing over with pacific winds of up to 73km/h.
Then offshore winds of ~-13C.

Worldview Mar7-8. Okhotsk . (unfortunately arctic worldview doesn't show the whole of Okhotsk)
Nullschool forecast for cyclone passing over Okhotsk tomorrow.
Wipneus extent chart.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1324 on: March 08, 2018, 09:35:02 PM »
Movement in the area of thickest ice modeled by PIOMAS on Feb28.

Worldview brightness temperature band15
Nth of CAA, Mar7-8

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1325 on: March 08, 2018, 10:15:12 PM »
Synchronised ice dancing in the ESS.

Worldview brightness temperature band15
East Siberian Sea Mar2-8


jgnfld

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1326 on: March 09, 2018, 06:54:39 AM »
... If you want to know the exact lenght of these, you should consult the book of navigation printed in 1700s by the british royal navy. (sorry, OT)

Nautical miles are highly convenient for mariners and flyers as they are (pretty much) directly relatable to degrees and Mercator projections. They are considered acceptable in SI by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures to this day.  https://www.bipm.org/utils/common/pdf/si_brochure_8_en.pdf

The old Imperial Navy definitions were superseded in 1929.

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1327 on: March 09, 2018, 11:01:59 AM »
NM also stands for No More off-topic, please.  :)
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1328 on: March 09, 2018, 02:39:14 PM »
Tomorrow it looks like Baffin, Fram and Kara export slow down with probable expansion but little chance of refreeze?
Bering strait export increases with probable expansion but, as noted above, a cyclone coming?
Okhotsk already had the cyclone so probable expansion, some coastal refreeze?

Beyond tomorrow that weather heading towards the pole looks interesting.

Nullchool and reanalyzer.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1329 on: March 09, 2018, 06:16:43 PM »
Here are 8 views of the late February storm plus wind and thickness forecasts from GFS and ESRL.

A-Team

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1330 on: March 09, 2018, 06:17:46 PM »
Same, synched into one half-sized file

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1331 on: March 09, 2018, 08:47:00 PM »
CAB Cold or getting colder.
Weather systems spinning round the centre of the Greenland high bringing heat and cold and strong winds to the periphery.
Absolutely no sign of that weather pattern being broken for at least the next 10 days ?

The CAB and the peripheral seas continue their different stories?

ps: the DMI North of 80 drop from its 260+ kelvin high is impressive in its size and duration.

pps: have a look at  http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.nh-sat1.prcp-mslp-gph500 and use the slider to see the weather moving round and round.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1332 on: March 09, 2018, 09:01:14 PM »
ps: the DMI North of 80 drop from its 260+ kelvin high is impressive in its size and duration.

If you look at last year the same thing happened slightly earlier, and slightly less impressively.

Is this a sign of where Summer finally runs out of steam?

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1333 on: March 09, 2018, 09:25:58 PM »
ps: the DMI North of 80 drop from its 260+ kelvin high is impressive in its size and duration.

If you look at last year the same thing happened slightly earlier, and slightly less impressively.

Is this a sign of where Summer finally runs out of steam?

That is very interesting, but thats only one year. If this summer plays out the same way. It would be very interesting indeed.
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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1334 on: March 09, 2018, 09:33:01 PM »
Actually i take some of that back. If you look at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php it shows that arctic temps stay around normal in the summer months. So i wouldnt say the summer is losing steam, rather the winters are gaining strength.
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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1335 on: March 09, 2018, 09:35:20 PM »
I believe that conclusion has already been decided here tho
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1336 on: March 09, 2018, 10:42:23 PM »
Actually i take some of that back. If you look at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php it shows that arctic temps stay around normal in the summer months. So i wouldnt say the summer is losing steam, rather the winters are gaining strength.

Summer == warm
Winter == cold

Might be the winters losing strength...

It just seems to me that the temp is a sign that the buildup of energy during the summer used to fade rapidly with the fall, but now it takes most of the winter to chew it up.  When it takes ALL WINTER (same as Blue Ocean Event) to chew up the heat then things get even more interesting.

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1337 on: March 10, 2018, 04:08:19 AM »
Actually i take some of that back. If you look at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php it shows that arctic temps stay around normal in the summer months. So i wouldnt say the summer is losing steam, rather the winters are gaining strength.

Summer == warm
Winter == cold

Might be the winters losing strength...

It just seems to me that the temp is a sign that the buildup of energy during the summer used to fade rapidly with the fall, but now it takes most of the winter to chew it up.  When it takes ALL WINTER (same as Blue Ocean Event) to chew up the heat then things get even more interesting.

Well yeah thats what i meant
"When the ice goes..... F***

Sleepy

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1338 on: March 10, 2018, 06:38:17 AM »
@All, the DMI 2m temps are not meant to be used as an actual physical mean temperature of the Arctic.

@Wherestheice, this is nothing new:
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Wherestheice

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1339 on: March 10, 2018, 07:24:12 AM »
@All, the DMI 2m temps are not meant to be used as an actual physical mean temperature of the Arctic.

@Wherestheice, this is nothing new:


wow thats a good find
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1340 on: March 10, 2018, 07:39:23 AM »
You're welcome. And there's no need to quote the previous commenter.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1341 on: March 10, 2018, 08:31:53 AM »
Great find.

Not just the understanding of the prediction.

But Suki Manabe is one of the Grand Old Men of climate science. And he is still alive.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1342 on: March 10, 2018, 09:20:43 AM »
Great find.

Not just the understanding of the prediction.

But Suki Manabe is one of the Grand Old Men of climate science. And he is still alive.
And still writing:-

Quote
Climate change computer model vindicated 30 years later by what has actually happened
Sceptics have long sneered at climate models but one made in the late 1980s has proved remarkably prophetic


Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Dr Ronald Stouffer, head of the climate and ecosystem group at Princeton University, and Dr Syukuro Manabe, a senior meteorologist at the same US college, said they had not expected the model to be so accurate.

“It is quite surprising that the observed and projected pattern of surface temperature change are very similar to each other,” they wrote.

“It … suggests that the model likely contains the key physical processes that control the geographical pattern of global warming at the earth surface.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3224.epdf?shared_access_token=_Sp9tm8C3gSr2EmgUgMP7NRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Nk-zVIn420LEvTImRafD2IjN4nrsfCTPuVwvNjQbbjNP15lhY6QNTkMg7BuAsxzdnyLkXgM39kM0Pv_Se5NdsShRYhBAiWZNLe9moe6RRRvAoizOL5_k4I7Tw7pmHsHK8%3D&utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=d4f8d24c28-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-d4f8d24c28-303476449

and a video    Special Climate Seminar
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1343 on: March 10, 2018, 11:49:52 PM »
Though this model will probably not be of any use any longer.

It seems mr Hadley has definitely returned from his holiday on mars. the tropopause appears to definitively risen to the 25km or so said to be necessary for a single cell hemispheric circulation. The weather system tops are clearly defined and temps much lower than 250hpa, between 50sth and 50nth-ish at 18.5km 70hpa altitude and this is now the Altitude at which we should look for the jets.
the Tropics are now 50degr nth and sth and here in NZ we are preparing for the second fully fledged tropical cyclone of three in a week.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/10/1800Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/equirectangular=-171.30,-0.03,277/loc=-123.572,-70.055
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1344 on: March 11, 2018, 04:30:07 AM »
Thanks gerontocrat. I hope I am that clear headed and spritely when I am 86. A life well lived it would seem.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1345 on: March 11, 2018, 05:52:00 AM »
@All, the DMI 2m temps are not meant to be used as an actual physical mean temperature of the Arctic.

Hear, hear!

See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/reanalysis-of-arctic-climate/

And thanks very much for the video. I've not seen that one before.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1346 on: March 11, 2018, 12:14:55 PM »

It seems mr Hadley has definitely returned from his holiday on mars. the tropopause appears to definitively risen to the 25km or so said to be necessary for a single cell hemispheric circulation. The weather system tops are clearly defined and temps much lower than 250hpa, between 50sth and 50nth-ish at 18.5km 70hpa altitude and this is now the Altitude at which we should look for the jets.
the Tropics are now 50degr nth and sth and here in NZ we are preparing for the second fully fledged tropical cyclone of three in a week.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/10/1800Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/equirectangular=-171.30,-0.03,277/loc=-123.572,-70.055

Can you quote any scientific research that confirms that the tropopause has permanently risen?

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1347 on: March 11, 2018, 05:16:36 PM »
Umm, at the risk of off topic I'll state that the cumulonimbus-clouds in tropics easily reach 20km and some rise even higher to 22,5k. Northernmost thunderclouds I've seen were somewhere at round 69,5°N and they were according locals typical (abt. 6,5 km in height). To those not familiar with clouds, Thunderstorms mostly stop growing at tropopause, you see the flat top and thereabouts is the local tropopause.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 05:23:04 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1348 on: March 11, 2018, 06:11:28 PM »
Ice export/expansion Bering Sea, Mar8-11. Looks like the ice front moved about 20km towards St Lawrence Island  on 9-10th.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1349 on: March 11, 2018, 09:22:39 PM »
Pmt,

Alaskan lightning detection depicted strikes over the ice at 79N two years ago.

A4R