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BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #150 on: September 16, 2019, 03:13:31 PM »
No point crying over the withdrawal agreement now.

There is no time between now and the end of October for a major overhaul and if Parliament blocks no deal then it is the only way out








Jim Hunt

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #151 on: September 16, 2019, 04:26:44 PM »
It is the only way out

Apart from a "People's Vote"?.......
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #152 on: September 16, 2019, 04:46:06 PM »
It is the only way out

Apart from a "People's Vote"?.......

Or a delay to allow time for a general election landslide for the Liberal Democrats.  Oh, err yeah, back to reality. ;) ;D

BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #153 on: September 16, 2019, 05:16:53 PM »
It is the only way out

Apart from a "People's Vote"?.......

I meant it's the only way out on 31st October. 
Although I doubt a peoples vote will offer anything more unless the extension is long enough for a significant renegotiation beforehand.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #154 on: September 16, 2019, 06:37:35 PM »
Some of the horrors of the 'withdrawal agreement' listed below courtesy of the spectator. For me the worst of it is that in despite denials from both 'our' and EU politicians an EU army is being formed who's only two rationales are suppression of dissent within, that is occupation of any dissenting regimes with 'foriegn' troops and EU war with Russia which would prove hard to bring about with independant soveriegn Eurpoean governments.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/the-top-40-horrors-lurking-in-the-small-print-of-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/ ):

Some of the assertions in this cited blog post may be overblown.  The Spectator subsequently published a rebuttal from the UK government:

The Brexit deal: 40 rebuttals to Mr Steerpike’s 40 horrors
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/the-brexit-deal-40-rebuttals-to-mr-steerpikes-40-horrors/

The Spectator further offers a rebuttal to the rebuttal.  It's not clear whether a rebuttal to the rebuttal of the rebuttal was offered.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #155 on: September 21, 2019, 11:24:51 AM »
Once upon a time I discussed climate change and renewable energy with Ben Bradshaw MP.

Today I am with him on this sentiment:

Quote
An eve of election conference. The country crying out for opposition to the Tories. But purge Tom Watson for reflecting Labour members & voters views on Brexit? Tear our Party apart? If true - totally fucking insane.

https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1175160094289539075
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #156 on: September 21, 2019, 09:52:14 PM »
Please bear with me as I cross post from the EV thread.

I currently reside in the North Cornwall constituency in the once Great Britain, which has forever been a Tory/Lib Dem marginal. That won't change for the upcoming election.

Here's me in conversation about esoteric EV charging matters with Danny Chambers, the shiny new Lib Dem candidate:



Danny is a fine fellow and was making all the right noises. Unlike BoJo and his ilk, Danny didn't study PPE at Oxford. He writes for the New Scientist occasionally, and assured me that he studied Physics to Advanced Level. 18 years of age for any non Brits out there.

He didn't blink when I talked about AC versus DC for example. Then today I spoke with the Green Party candidate, who is a lovely lady. She's coming here next weekend, weather permitting. to see Lisa the LEAF and our shiny new "state of the art" charging station getting it together.

Despite the fact that she has no hope of winning she apparently intends to fight the election, and split the remain vote. I am reliably informed that whilst Labour indulges in civil war (see above) the Green and Lib Dem leaderships are not communicating well at present.

Q.E.D? 


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #157 on: September 22, 2019, 08:31:45 AM »
Back in July I wrote....

[\quote author=RealityCheck link=topic=2643.msg209772#msg209772 date=1561972106]

In the words of Gerontocrat (and Monty Python): 'My theory that belongs to me' is that Europe will not agree to any further extension of the Brexit deadline; that new PM Johnson will be unable to get Parliament agreement on anything; a general election might well result, leading to more confusion; there will be no time to do anything meaningful after the dust settles; and an 'accidental' hard Brexit is a high likelihood - with everyone then blaming everyone else for the mess. Then Ireland gets caught in the cross-fire.

Once more, I hope I am wrong...but nothing points to that right now.

[/quote]
Here we are with October round the corner...and guess what? My hope of being wrong is dwindling. I have held back posting too much about Brexit, because it's all the same really. But it still all points to a hard Brexit as most likely.
The Irish perspective was outlined in detail by our Tanaiste (deputy Prime Minister) in an interview, which is described in the linked article from the UK's Independent newspaper. The writer found the length of Coveney's answer amusing... there is also a link to the interview itself in the report.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/simon-coveney-brexit-backstop-ireland-no-deal-today-programme-john-humphrys-a9113601.html
Sic transit gloria mundi

philopek

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #158 on: September 22, 2019, 06:47:48 PM »
Although the largest Brexiteer of all, Boris Johnson, now as Prime Minister directs the fortunes of the United Kingdom, it works with the Brexit as little as under its predecessor Theresa May. Because, according to the FOCUS Online author, EU expert dr. Klemens Joos of Ludwig-Maximilians-University (LMU) Munich, there can be no contractually regulated Brexit.

If someone asks themselves the legitimate question, why the United Kingdom just in the fourth year after the departure referendum, the Brexit just can not do it, then it is worth taking a look at your own passport. There is written in golden letters on the bordeaux violet cover "EUROPEAN UNION" and only then Federal Republic of Germany. Not all EU Member States have taken on the addition of the European Union, but almost all of them now have the uniform passport, in order to strengthen the sense of community among EU citizens.

It is even more worth taking a look at the Lisbon Treaty of 2009, which entailed such deepening and closer integration of the EU Member States that it was rightly regarded as the birth of the United States of America, postulated by Winston Churchill in 1946 from Europe ".


Through this grand treaty, which can claim the status of a European constitution, today all EU states are so deeply interwoven that no one could afford to break with the EU. For with its ratification, a large part of its sovereignty in the Member States was transferred to the institutions of the EU, thereby giving power.

Klemens Joos, EU expert and LMU lecturer
Marek Vogel 2018Dr. Klemens Joos, EU expert and LMU lecturer
About the guest author
Dr. Klemens Joos is a lecturer at the Faculty of Business Administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich. Joos is also the founder and managing director of the internationally active Munich-based EU policy and management consultancy EUTOP.

Brexit is practically unthinkable
On the basis of this analysis, I already agreed in the FOCUS in November 2015: "Under the EU Treaty, any member could voluntarily leave the EU. Practically, this is no longer conceivable. "

That was seven months before the hostile referendum in the UK on 23 June 2016 on leaving the EU. Premier David Cameron had announced it three years earlier, announcing his resignation just one day later. Again three years later and after an endless series of failed Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels, Cameron's successor surrendered to Downing Street No. 10, Theresa May. And incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who behaved as the relentless executor of a no-deal Brexit and massive damage to their own country, could soon be the next victim.

On Winston Churchill, who in Zurich spread the vision of a united Europe at a time when the continent was still in the rubble of World War II, Johnson can not under any circumstances invoke his brute Brexit course.

EU will never divulge for Brexit fundamental freedoms
What is the underlying reason for the serial failure of the UK political class in the role of the people in 2016 to withdraw from the EU?

The answer is that a contractually regulated Brexit was completely impossible from the outset. The EU can not and will never divulge the four fundamental freedoms of the EU internal market, ie the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital. Because this would be the beginning of the end of the European Union.

However, these fundamental freedoms, especially the free movement of persons, were among the main reasons for the resignation decision in 2016. However, this means that substantial changes to the resignation agreement that Boris Johnson is allegedly aiming for are excluded. The same applies to the "backstop", ie the clause in the draft withdrawal agreement, according to which the United Kingdom remains subject to the rules of the Customs Union and the EU single market if London and Brussels do not find another solution by 31 December 2020, which ensures that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland does not become the new EU external border.

Boris Johnson has no majority for Brexit course
Especially on the "backstop" May has failed with her contract several times in the lower house, because thus the entire United Kingdom de facto largely remain in the EU and the Brexit would be a farce. But another solution to the Irish border problem, which could lead to the outbreak of new violence in Northern Ireland, is ruled out by experts in Brussels and London. To put it simply, a little bit of Brexit is as impossible as a little bit pregnant or a bit of a border.

Because of this procedural logic, the British face the uncomfortable alternative: a hard Brexit or just no Brexit. As a reminder, in the summer of 2016, the only option was to "stay a member of the European Union" or "leave the European Union". It was then quite clear that "leaving" meant a contractually regulated exit. For a tough Brexit, which the lower house has now banned the prime minister by law, there would never have been a majority in 2016.

One of the numerous birth defects of Brexit is that there was no clear definition of what the referendum meant and what it meant. The result: Johnson does not even have a majority in his own group for his course.

No-Brexit is the only solution
In fact, only the no-Brexit remains. London only needs to withdraw its resignation from 2017 under Article 50 of the EU Treaty. It is not without reason that on April 10, 2019, the European Council nose-punched the government in London with the option "to withdraw its resignation at any time". And the European Parliament also very recently drew attention to this surprisingly simple way out of the Brexit crisis in a resolution adopted by a large majority. This is the only solution that London can accomplish on its own, so confidently.

The United Kingdom, in my firm conviction, will sooner or later seize this opportunity, because that is the only way to prevent the crash of a severe Brexit with serious consequences for all concerned, but especially for the British people, and for a contractually regulated Brexit to be processually impossible will prove. Until then, one or the other Brexit extension can not be ruled out. But one thing is clear: any extension of the deadline extends the membership of the UK in the EU with all the associated rights and obligations.

Hard Brexit only alternative
In a complex decision-making system like the EU, the content competence of process competence will be subordinated at the end of the decision-making process.

Transferred to Brexit this means: The substantive will of first Theresa May and now Boris Johnson - the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union - must fail, because processually, as shown, no way leads there. This painful balancing act of will and ability of the Brexit advocates inevitably leads to the withdrawal of the withdrawal request.

Because the only alternative is the hard Brexit, so the Chaos Brexit. That's what the current resident of Downing Street No. 10 will have to understand - let's call him Hulk or Boris. If he rejects this procedural logic, another will take his place and do what is necessary.

Especially in highly complex processes such as the Brexit let's not be fooled by the fleeting wave movements on the expanses of the oceans, which are constantly changing due to changing winds. Determining the right course depends on the currents in the depths of the oceans.

RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #159 on: September 22, 2019, 07:36:41 PM »
Philoptek writes in the post above:
'To put it simply, a little bit of Brexit is as impossible as a little bit pregnant or a bit of a border'.

I can not fault the basic logic of his reasoning. I would add to it:
The Good Friday Agreement can be described as a 'peace treaty' between two very hostile groups in Northern Ireland, that is guaranteed by the Dublin and London governments. The provisions in it created mutual cooperation structures, shared power for governing NI, and completely opened the border between NI and the Republic of Ireland. In my view, this is fundamentally incompatible with any type of Brexit. However, in Ireland we are well used to creative compromises and living with some ambiguity, for the sake of a peaceful life, so we could be happy with our backstop if we needed it. Even that would be a real compromise on the GFA. But now, with all the red lines and souped-up rhetoric, it does seem it can only be hard brexit or no brexit. What a choice... what a bind the UK govt has created for itself... no winners here, only losers.
Sic transit gloria mundi

oren

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #160 on: September 22, 2019, 11:35:28 PM »
I think in reality it was always hard brexit or no brexit, regardless of whatever the voters may have thought.

be cause

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #161 on: September 24, 2019, 11:43:42 AM »
I like the sound of the Lady Hale's suspension ruling .. so far so good .. :) .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

be cause

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #162 on: September 24, 2019, 11:51:00 AM »
unlawful prorogation .. void and to no effect .. parliament can now return . Prime minister lied to the Queen .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

charles_oil

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #163 on: September 24, 2019, 12:09:12 PM »

Watching the ruling - that was a real "WOW" moment - hopefully thwarts Boris's plan to drive the UK out of EU without a deal !   Unlawful = lying to queen = not prime ministerial - I think he has to go!


be cause

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #164 on: September 24, 2019, 01:55:16 PM »
I have wondered since Theresa resigned if a trap was not being set for Boris and the anti-Europe faction . They now run the show .. and what a show it has been . This farce should end their reign quickly and allow the 'moderate' Tory to dominate the party for a generation .
  Boris is not quite the pro. rogue he thought he was .   ..  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

SteveMDFP

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #165 on: September 24, 2019, 03:18:41 PM »

  Boris is not quite the pro. rogue he thought he was .   ..  b.c.

Heh.
When it comes to Brexit, I'm anti-rogue myself.

crandles

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #166 on: September 24, 2019, 04:25:18 PM »
  Boris is not quite the pro. rogue he thought he was .   ..  b.c.

Boris the un-pro. rogue ?

philopek

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #167 on: September 24, 2019, 08:43:50 PM »
I think most were shocked after peoples verdict (referendum) and what happens now is concerted by those who want to stay.

I may err like so often but  I still strongly believe that we shall see no Brexit at all.

Also bear in mind that Theresa initially was against a Brexit an that speaks for my theory as well.

There were many enough opportunities to just do it and deal with the details thereafter, but it did not happen and that only makes sense if they purposefully drive the Brexit-Vehicle against a wall.

There will be a second referendum and 65% of the Brits shall vote to stay.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2019, 01:48:21 AM by philopek »

RealityCheck

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #168 on: September 24, 2019, 09:47:23 PM »

Watching the ruling - that was a real "WOW" moment - hopefully thwarts Boris's plan to drive the UK out of EU without a deal !   Unlawful = lying to queen = not prime ministerial - I think he has to go!

Agreed! on all counts!
This is a good day - for the UK, its democracy - and hopefully for common sense when it comes to Brexit. And I think Mr Johnson owes Her Majesty an apology; I doubt that we are amused...
Sic transit gloria mundi

etienne

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #169 on: September 25, 2019, 09:12:36 PM »
There were many enough opportunities to just do it and deal with the details thereafter, but it did not happen and that only makes sense if they purposefully drive the Brexit-Vehicle against a wall.
I can't believe that May's only objective was to send the Brexit-vehicle in the wall. If this was the case, I guess she would have organized a 2nd referendum. I believe that she wanted to be in history books. Now we just have chaos.

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #170 on: September 25, 2019, 09:48:37 PM »
2nd referendum

Third! Third referendum. ;)

1975 United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_United_Kingdom_European_Communities_membership_referendum
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philopek

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #171 on: September 25, 2019, 11:11:11 PM »
There were many enough opportunities to just do it and deal with the details thereafter, but it did not happen and that only makes sense if they purposefully drive the Brexit-Vehicle against a wall.
I can't believe that May's only objective was to send the Brexit-vehicle in the wall. If this was the case, I guess she would have organized a 2nd referendum. I believe that she wanted to be in history books. Now we just have chaos.

you added the word ONLY that i did not use in my post.

That said, I agree, certainly not the ONLY objective but one in the back of her head and yes to the history book part while that still wont tell us which way she wanted to achieve that exactly ;)

Of course only she knows, this is basically educated guesswork at best.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #172 on: September 26, 2019, 10:41:26 AM »
Meanwhile back in the Palace of Westminster, more grist for our research mill. Has BoJo been reading the Trumpism playbook carefully, or is he just monumentally out of touch with reality?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49836681

Quote
The prime minister's remark in relation to murdered MP Jo Cox has left a former Conservative Welsh secretary "shocked".

MP Stephen Crabb said Boris Johnson had "a duty to reduce the level of poison in our politics".

The prime minister angered many MPs by using words such as "surrender" and "betray" as he addressed the Commons.

A Labour MP referred to her colleague's murder as she criticised Mr Johnson's remarks but he dismissed her intervention as "humbug".

The prime minister said the best way to honour the memory of Jo Cox - who campaigned for Remain - and bring the country together, was "to get Brexit done".
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #173 on: October 01, 2019, 04:05:46 PM »
Can The Queen Fire Boris Johnson? - Brexit Explained

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gandul

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #174 on: October 01, 2019, 05:53:20 PM »
Can The Queen Fire Boris Johnson? - Brexit Explained

Strikes me as an old woman with little interest in politics, which suits well her symbolical role of not doing nothing to keep everyone happy. Just my two pence.
No me lo trago

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #175 on: October 01, 2019, 06:30:21 PM »
I don't know how little she is interested in politics, but she is watching her country burn and could end it. So...
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philopek

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #176 on: October 01, 2019, 08:51:13 PM »
I don't know how little she is interested in politics, but she is watching her country burn and could end it. So...

She cannot end it, another bold dream that's not thought to the end because among other reasons:

- Even if she can "END" BoJo nothing would be resolved as far as Brexit is concerned

- The day she would do that she would ring the bell to the end of her reign or the monarchy as such. Only exception could be if more than 3/4 of all people would support her interfering. As far as I can see she would not even have 2/3 of people behind her.

One reason why the British still have a monarchy, similar to other countries is, that the deal is that the monarchs keep their hands of politics and don't use their theoretical means of last resort.
The moment a Monarch would interfere in a direct "ruling" way it would ultimately mean doom.

Idealism doesn't solve anything, on the contrary, hidden flaws are worse than obvious flaws because once the hidden flaws surface as such it's most often way too late to react and the majority needed to take counter measures can hardly be reached because the "good people" tend to become dogmatic an stick to their error at all costs.

blumenkraft

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #177 on: October 01, 2019, 08:58:29 PM »
She cannot end it,

How do you know? Is there a precedent?
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BeeKnees

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #178 on: October 01, 2019, 09:36:30 PM »
The queen appoints the Prime Minister.
When the leader of a party visits the queen they are asked if they have the he confidence of the house. If they do not then the queen is obliged to reject their request.

My understanding is this goes further, if parliament makes a humble address to the queen that the prime minister no longer has the confidence of the house then someone else can go to the queen and claim to have the confidence then a new PM can be appointed.

This is what I beleive would happen if they're is a vote of no confidence and a government of national unity was formed as a temporary measure.

etienne

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #179 on: October 08, 2019, 09:41:27 PM »
I just read (Guardian) that the Brexit might be pushed back up to the summer. Maybe there is some hope to turn the BJ page without casualties.

johnm33

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Re: Brexit...
« Reply #180 on: October 15, 2019, 08:07:33 PM »
I'm no monarchist but the queen being in favour of the EU is like a turkey looking forward to christmas.
From John Ward
"A research outfit in London informs me that, since late April this year – although those undecided/unaligned on Brexit remain constant at around 12% – the continuing trend is for so-called ‘mild Remainers’ to switch to Leave, and ‘mild Leavers’ to drift closer to a clean Brexit with no strings. The single biggest factors behind their decision are first, MPs reneging on ‘respect Leave’ promises; and second, a strongly negative attitude to perceived Brussels duplicity."
"I was in conversation with a retired diplomat last week who painted a very dismal picture. “Nothing will change,” he opined, “those too ghastly to face The People will remain above the marionette threatre, pulling the strings of different puppets”. He was, as they say, “retired early” so I suppose he ought to know." So casualties are inevitable Democracy the first, as poor as it was.
 read it all https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/10/14/slowly-slowly-catchee-barnier-monkeys-or-ruination-for-johnson-cummings/