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Author Topic: 2019 ENSO  (Read 1923 times)

Darvince

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2019 ENSO
« on: January 07, 2019, 06:52:08 AM »
Note that it's 2019, and a new thread could be made.

Please include a long record of ENSO in the opening post.
Trimonthly ONI since 1950:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm


And seeing as all US government climate websites are currently unavailable, here is this archived page from December 17th last year: http://web.archive.org/web/20181217235025/www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/

And the current 30-day moving average SOI from the BoM:

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2019, 03:05:37 PM »
Although Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is not currently on lock out...


Climate Model Summary for January to May 2019

Issued 17 December 2018 Updated 18 December 2018 Next issue 16 January 2019

Models maintain El Niño thresholds for the ocean, but atmosphere yet to respond
Quote
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at or above El Niño thresholds over the past two months. However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño remain neutral, indicating the ocean and atmosphere are not yet coupled (i.e. not reinforcing each other to help sustain the El Niño state).

Five of eight model outlooks suggest El Niño levels will be maintained through to May 2018, while the other three forecast SSTs in the neutral range. It must be noted that model accuracy forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year.
Other reports coming out tomorrow (Jan. 8 )
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 05:20:14 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2019, 05:17:20 PM »
Quote
Models maintain El Niño thresholds for the ocean, but atmosphere yet to respond

How unusual is this?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2019, 05:26:04 PM »
I cannot answer your question, Sigmetnow, but a report released yesterday talks about the issues involved:
Quote
Some recent cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean
 
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.

While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.

The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.

Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2019, 05:50:32 PM »

Trimonthly ONI since 1950:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm



Thank you !  Looks like the 60š were a lot less in La Nina than I remembered.
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Rodius

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2019, 02:42:42 AM »
Down to +2.0

Comment from the site.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 6 January was +6.2, and the 90-day SOI was +4.0. The SOI has remained within the neutral ENSO range since early September. There have been fluctuations over recent recent weeks, however during the southern hemisphere summer the SOI is more volatile due to the passage of tropical storms and should therefore be viewed with caution.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2019, 06:13:40 PM »
From NOAA: updated January 14, 2019 (despite the government closure)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Forecast/figf4.shtml
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2019, 03:24:08 AM »
New downwelling kelvin wave near the dateline.  A response to the relaxed trades & westerly winds in that area the last 30 days. 

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2019, 11:58:09 AM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rodius

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2019, 10:36:13 PM »
Sittign on -1.3


From the site:
ENSO Outlook lowered to El Niño WATCH
Recent observations and climate model outlooks suggest the immediate risk of El Niño has passed.

However, there remains an increased likelihood that El Niño will develop later in 2019. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has therefore moved to El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter.

Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain warmer than average, but since late 2018 they have cooled from El Niño-like values towards ENSO-neutral values. Atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index all continue to generally remain within the ENSO-neutral range.

While most climate models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions for the immediate future, the current ocean warmth and likelihood of ongoing warmer than average conditions mean the risk of El Niño remains. Three of eight models suggest that El Niño may establish by mid-2019.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2019, 12:25:17 PM »
Yep, possible El Nino coming up later this year, the 2.4 years period some models suggest has almost passed since the last notable one. 50-50 is a fine prediction!!
« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 12:38:27 PM by Pmt111500 »
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2019, 05:53:54 AM »
Major changes underway in the equatorial Pacific.  Near the dateline a strong standing wave has developed.  Strongest forcing yet in this ENSO cycle.  There is also a strengthening subsurface kelvin wave that will have more of an impact on 2019-2020 ENSO cycle. 

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2019, 07:38:02 PM »
Dateline WWB is off the charts the next 5 days coming up.  Interesting to follow the VP anomalies back to early January.  MJO wave passes over dateline around February 1 which triggers the strong standing wave. 

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2019, 06:04:17 PM »
Synopsis: Weak El Niño conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1096049726120697856

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2019, 06:39:21 PM »
Synopsis: Weak El Niño conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1096049726120697856

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
And here are the pretty pictures thereof.
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Rodius

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2019, 09:26:28 AM »
Australia is still saying their is a 50% chance of an El Nino.
But the USA has called it.
They use different methods to determine one, with Australia having the more difficult criteria.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/02/14/el-nino-natural-warming-ocean-water-forms-climate-scientists/2868209002/

Sitting on -1.4

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2019, 09:50:48 AM »
For the U.S. (CPC) it’s basic math, this shouldn’t be that surprising.  It’s not going to take much to get 2 more ONIs to complete the 5 ONIs. December and January ERSSTv5 values both came in at +0.8°C.  DJF is a lock and JFM should be easy considering the ongoing off the charts westerly wind burst.