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Author Topic: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD  (Read 590104 times)

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2050 on: September 29, 2020, 04:18:59 PM »
Droughts in some places and rainstorms in others, hard work as a farmer. After the brutal weather changes of the last 2 years, if La Nina replays the same scenario (that of 2010/2011) for the next 2 years ...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053055
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Alexander555

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2051 on: October 01, 2020, 09:19:29 PM »
Two million tons of rice gone, in Nigeria. That's like 10 kilos of rice for every person in Nigeria. https://watchers.news/2020/10/01/jigawa-nigeria-flood-crop-loss-2020/

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2052 on: October 03, 2020, 03:17:46 PM »
Climate change will continue to widen gaps in food security, new study finds
https://www.dailyclimate.org/climate-change-will-continue-to-widen-gaps-in-food-security-new-study-finds-2647877151.html
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In a new study published in Nature Food, researchers assessed global yields for 18 of the most farmed crops—wheat, maize, soybeans, rice, barley, sugar beet, cassava, cotton, groundnuts, millet, oats, potatoes, pulses, rapeseed, rye, sorghum, sunflower and sweet potatoes—crops that, all together, represent 70 percent of global crop area and around 65 percent of global caloric intake.

The authors found that climate change will not only hamper farmers' abilities to maintain current harvests, but that countries already facing food insecurity will be disproportionately affected. The researchers investigated temperature variations, but didn't examine climate impacts to precipitation patterns or other weather phenomena like flood or drought.

The most negatively impacted countries across most crops, their models found, were those in sub-Saharan Africa, and certain countries in South America and South Asia like India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela, among others.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2053 on: October 06, 2020, 01:37:00 AM »
Groundwater Depletion in US High Plains Leads to Bleak Outlook for Grain Production
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-groundwater-depletion-high-plains-bleak.html

The depletion of groundwater sources in parts of the United States High Plains is so severe that peak grain production in some states has already been passed, according to new research.

An international team of scientists, including experts from the University of Birmingham, has extended and improved methods used to calculate peak oil production to assess grain production in three US states, Nebraska, Texas and Kansas. They related the levels of water extraction from the Ogallala aquifer, one of the largest underwater reservoirs in the High Plains, over the past five decades, to the amounts of grain harvested in each state and used this model to predict future trends. Their results are published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The scientists found that in Texas and Kansas, even taking into account advances in technology and improved irrigation methods, production levels peaked around 2016 before starting to decline. By 2050, if no yield-boosting technologies are introduced, grain production in Texas could be reduced by as much as 40 percent.

The decline is because rates of water extraction, coupled with delays in enforcing new policies on groundwater use and in introducing new irrigation and monitoring technologies mean the aquifers can no longer be sufficiently replenished to meet demand.

... The US High Plains produces more than 50 million tonnes of grain yearly and depends on the aquifers for as much as 90 percent of its irrigation needs. Taken as a whole, therefore, the model shows that continued depletion of the High Plains aquifers at current levels represents a significant threat to food and water security both in the US and globally.

"Overall, the picture we see emerging from these calculations is bleak," says Professor David Hannah, at the University of Birmingham. "The ultimate consequence of the aquifers continuing to be overused will be the decline and collapse of grain production. We have already seen this happen in Texas, where over the course of fifty years, peak water use has twice led to peak grain production followed by production crashes."



Assaad Mrad el al., "Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters," PNAS (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/29/2008383117
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2054 on: October 12, 2020, 02:37:47 PM »
Fifth of Countries at Risk of Ecosystem Collapse, Analysis Finds
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/12/fifth-of-nations-at-risk-of-ecosystem-collapse-analysis-finds

One-fifth of the world’s countries are at risk of their ecosystems collapsing because of the destruction of wildlife and their habitats, according to an analysis by the insurance firm Swiss Re.

Natural “services” such as food, clean water and air, and flood protection have already been damaged by human activity.

More than half of global GDP – $42tn (£32tn) – depends on high-functioning biodiversity, according to the report, but the risk of tipping points is growing.

Countries including Australia, Israel and South Africa rank near the top of Swiss Re’s index of risk to biodiversity and ecosystem services, with India, Spain and Belgium also highlighted. Countries with fragile ecosystems and large farming sectors, such as Pakistan and Nigeria, are also flagged up. ...



Those countries with more than 30% of their area found to have fragile ecosystems were deemed to be at risk of those ecosystems collapsing. Just one in seven countries had intact ecosystems covering more than 30% of their country area.

Among the G20 leading economies, South Africa and Australia were seen as being most at risk, with China 7th, the US 9th and the UK 16th.

... “If the ecosystem service decline goes on [in countries at risk], you would see then scarcities unfolding even more strongly, up to tipping points,” said Oliver Schelske, lead author of the research.

Report: https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:4793a2c3-b50a-47c0-98df-ed6d5549fde8/nr-20200923-swiss-re-biodiversity-ecosystem-index-en.pdf

https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/nr-20200923-biodiversity-and-ecosystems-services.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2055 on: October 12, 2020, 03:48:59 PM »
vox_mundi's post is somewhat timely. When the Gnomes of Zurich hit the alarm bells then one should be worried.

One-fifth of the world’s countries are at risk of their ecosystems collapsing because of the destruction of wildlife and their habitats,
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2056 on: October 12, 2020, 03:55:09 PM »
Wow, gerontocrat.
I clicked [like] on that post but I skimmed right over the Gnomes of Zurich part.
Is that good news? Does it mean that even Earth's equivalent of the Ferengi are getting worried, so there will be big changes to protect the environment now?
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vox_mundi

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2057 on: October 14, 2020, 03:08:05 AM »
Atmospheric Dust Levels Are Rising In the Great Plains
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-atmospheric-great-plains.html



Got any spaces left on that 2020 bingo card? Pencil in "another Dust Bowl in the Great Plains." A study from University of Utah researchers and their colleagues finds that atmospheric dust levels are rising across the Great Plains at a rate of up to 5% per year.

The trend of rising dust parallels expansion of cropland and seasonal crop cycles, suggesting that farming practices are exposing more soil to wind erosion. And if the Great Plains becomes drier, a possibility under climate change scenarios, then all the pieces are in place for a repeat of the Dust Bowl that devastated the Midwest in the 1930s.

... Around the 2000s, the growth in demand for biofuels spurred renewed expansion of farmland to produce the needed crops. In an echo of the 1920s, this expansion replaced stable grasslands with vulnerable soil. Over five years, from 2006 to 2011, 2046 square miles (530,000 hectares) of grassland in five Midwestern states became farmland—an area a little smaller than Delaware.

At the same time, parts of the Great Plains experienced longer and more severe droughts in the 20th century. The future of drought in that region is, so far, uncertain, but the potential for a warmer, drier Great Plains has Lambert and co-author Gannet Hallar, associate professor of atmospheric sciences, bringing up the word "desertification" in relation to the potential future of the region.

The focus of the study by Lambert, Hallar and colleagues from the U, the University of Colorado-Boulder and Colorado State University, was to quantify how much the amount of dust in the atmosphere over the Great Plains had changed in recent decades.

All together, the data cover years from 1988 to 2018. Dust, they found, is increasing in the atmosphere over the whole of the Great Plains by as much as 5% per year.

"The amount of increase is really the story here," Hallar says. "That 5% a year over two decades, of course, is a hundred percent increase in dust loading. This is not a small signal to find."

The researchers further found correlations between dust in the atmosphere and crop timings. In Iowa, where soybeans have been a major expanding crop, increases in dust appeared in June and October—planting and harvesting months, respectively, for soybeans. In the southern Great Plains states, where corn is a more dominant crop, dust increases appeared in March and October—again correlating to corn planting and harvesting seasons.

That was remarkable," Hallar says, "in the sense of how clear the signal was."

"I think it's fair to say that what's happening with dust trends in the Midwest and the Great Plains is an indicator that the threat is real if crop land expansion continues to occur at this rate and drought risk does increase because of climate change," Lambert says. "Those would be the ingredients for another Dust Bowl."



Andrew Lambert et al, Dust Impacts of Rapid Agricultural Expansion on the Great Plains, Geophysical Research Letters (2020)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090347
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2058 on: October 14, 2020, 05:24:01 PM »
Quote
"The amount of increase is really the story here," Hallar says. "That 5% a year over two decades, of course, is a hundred percent increase in dust loading. This is not a small signal to find."
One problem with a 5% increase each year, is that doubling occurs in 14 or 15 years, not 20.  It's called compound interest in banking.

In "hundredth monkey*" thinking:  "1 and 1 and 50 makes a million"**

______
* - discredited research, but true with things like war hysteria, maybe what causes landslide elections
** - lyrics to an uplifting protest song.

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

El Cid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2059 on: October 14, 2020, 08:02:59 PM »
Atmospheric Dust Levels Are Rising In the Great Plains
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-atmospheric-great-plains.html



Got any spaces left on that 2020 bingo card? Pencil in "another Dust Bowl in the Great Plains."

This is totally due to detrimental agricultural practices, it has nothing to do with climate change. We did this.

wili

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2060 on: October 14, 2020, 08:07:52 PM »
"We did this"

Ummm, didn't we 'do' climate change as well.

And...how much do you know about the deep history of the Great Plains? Are  you familiar with the Sand Hills, for example? And with what happened the last time the earth was at it's current 1C above ~19th century temperatures?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2061 on: October 15, 2020, 06:08:26 AM »
"We did this"

Ummm, didn't we 'do' climate change as well.

And...how much do you know about the deep history of the Great Plains? Are  you familiar with the Sand Hills, for example? And with what happened the last time the earth was at it's current 1C above ~19th century temperatures?
I'm not familiar with the term 'deep history', let alone the deep history of the Great  Plains. I thought the Sand Hills were formed during the last glaciation. But, apparently, they are related to warm periods. Please educate us.

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2062 on: October 15, 2020, 01:38:58 PM »
I failed a geography exam because I was at the back of the classroom reading "The Grapes of Wrath" by John Steinbeck - a deeply human history of the consequences of the dustbowl years.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wili

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2063 on: October 15, 2020, 04:42:51 PM »
During the Holocene Optimum about 8000 years ago, global temperatures were about what they are today, that is about one degree C above the immediate pre-industrial levels.

That was enough warming and drying (the typical pattern in the center of continents, as I understand) to push the delicate ecosystem of the Sand Hills over toward becoming moving sand dunes, basically turning the Great Plains into something resembling the more arid and desolate regions of the Sahara. This is covered in the first chapter of the book '6 Degrees'

It will probably take a while for this to happen again, and there are doubtless things that could be done to help stabilize the Sand Hills and slow down their degradation. But it is very likely that some time in the coming years or decades, the Great Plains will become more like The Great Desert.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

gerontocrat

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #2064 on: October 22, 2020, 01:55:29 PM »
The EU has voted for BAU. The consequences of intensifying industrial farming for wildlife and just about everything else, including us, will be profound. I was tempted to post this in the Holocene Extinction thread.

Let's have another round of drinks in "The Last Chance Saloon".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/21/greta-thunberg-accuses-meps-of-surrender-on-climate-and-environment
Greta Thunberg accuses MEPs of 'surrender on climate and environment'
European parliament votes to continue payments to farmers with no green conditions attached

Quote
Greta Thunberg, the Swedish school strike pioneer and environmental activist, has accused MEPs of surrendering on the climate and environment by voting in favour of a watered-down reform of the EU’s common agricultural policy.

The European parliament voted late on Wednesday in favour of proposals put forward by the main political groups that will continue 60% of the current direct payments to farmers with weak or non-existent green conditions attached.

The changes backed by the parliament weaken an already heavily criticised proposal from the European commission on reform of the CAP, which accounts for one-third of the EU budget.

MEPs will continue to vote on a host of issues around future reforms up until Friday, as parliament sets its position before negotiations with the member states and the European commission.

Thunberg tweeted: “While media was reporting on ‘names of vegan hot dogs’ the EU parliament signed away €387bn [£350bn] to a new agricultural policy that basically means surrender on climate & environment. No awareness means no pressure and accountability so the outcome is no surprise. They just don’t care.”

Bas Eickhout, a Green MEP, said: “Climate change and ecological breakdown pose a severe threat to farming, our food system and our future on this planet and yet a large number of MEPs are wilfully ignoring the enormous scale of the problem.

“Unfortunately, the EPP, Socialists and Renew groups have watered down the already weak proposals of the commission by continuing with 60% of direct payments with very weak conditions.

“Without binding targets for more climate protection, less pesticides in the fields and less antibiotics in livestock farming, the CAP will stand as the very antithesis to the purpose of the Green Deal,” Eickhout said.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)