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Author Topic: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data  (Read 1269 times)

gerontocrat

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2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2020, 08:42:47 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,474,725 km2(January 2, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 43 k, 3 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,510 k, 526 k (6.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,984 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 338 k more than 2017
- Extent is 20 k more than 2019
- Extent is 88 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 81.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 68 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.43 million km2.
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Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.5 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days, 
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2020, 09:31:43 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2nd January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,433,612  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,433,612    km2      
 137,686    km2   >   2010's average.
 177,717    km2   >   2019
-309,083    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     33    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     33    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -22    k   loss
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     20    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 33 k, 16 k LESS than the 2010's average of 49 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 138 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 178 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 760 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.5 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days,
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2020, 09:45:15 PM »
NSIDC Sea Ice Area Graphs

Just the seas not yet completely frozen

Okhotsk- average area gains to date.
Bering - very high area gains.
Hudson - just a bit to go, nearly full up.
Baffin - average gains but from a very low base
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2020, 09:55:23 PM »
More NSIDC Sea Ice Area Graphs

Just the seas not yet completely frozen

Greenland Sea. If ice import from the Fram Strait at average until maximum, about 80% done.
Barents Sea - continuing well above 2010's average.

Kara Sea. Should be complete. A drop in the last few days - winds blowing offshore from Russia?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2020, 05:11:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 3rd, 2020:
     12,526,837 km2, an increase of 52,112 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 10 lowest years (2010 to 2020, except for 2012).
     Highlighted: 2016 & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.