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Author Topic: FireStorm in Siberia  (Read 2702 times)

DavidR

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FireStorm in Siberia
« on: July 22, 2019, 03:40:14 PM »

This may amount to nothing but there is quite a large cyclone being fueled by fires in Siberia at the moment. On my estimate its about 1000 kms across and drawing in a lot of heat and smoke from the surrounding areas. Rather like those pictures of what happens when you light  too many  candles on a birthday cake.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firestorm

If it happened to drift north over the Arctic Ocean I  can't see it being anything but destructive either this year or, by dumping a great deal of soot, in later years.   

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2019-07-22-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=540709.4034312759,1297218.1613725103,4472869.403431276,3173186.1613725103
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Revillo

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 04:56:48 PM »


DavidR

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2019, 04:31:55 AM »
If that  cloud was in Europe it  would cover the west coast of Norway to well east of Moscow and the North of Sweden to Warsaw.  That is a massive area.
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Tunnelforce9

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2019, 02:01:53 PM »
Approximately 100 Mt CO2 emitted by Arctic wildfires between 1 June & 21 July 2019 is getting close to 2017 fossil fuel CO2 emissions of Belgium[/quote]

https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1153222688615337984

DavidR

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2019, 11:08:01 PM »
We are seeing this quite regularly now across Siberia and Canada.

Here's another large one from three years ago

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2016-07-23-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-1431632.3581548978,-2481565.9215648486,6219686.631759871,6176537.860140877&r=124.774

And Canada August 2018

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2018-08-15-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4848140.54029414,-4367989.641814728,-1849437.3807216217,-42882.6898112871&r=-72.8907
These are large smoke plumes l, but have not formed into the cyclonic wind pattern typical of a firestorm. The cyclonic pattern concentrates the heat and intensity of the fires. The cyclonic pattern has increased to almost 2000 km across, which in Australia, which is prone to large fires, would be equivalent to covering South Australia, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania. In the US it would be nearly a third of the country.
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Sterks

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2019, 08:40:24 AM »
The low was already predicted three days ago by ECMWF, see chart, weak low south of Kara. No way they predicted the fires, even I doubt they take into account all the physics needed to predict a fire-caused cyclone.
This is smoke caught by a normal atmospheric low. A lot of smoke yes, but it is not causing the low.

DavidR

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2019, 03:14:02 PM »
The low was already predicted three days ago by ECMWF, see chart, weak low south of Kara. No way they predicted the fires, even I doubt they take into account all the physics needed to predict a fire-caused cyclone.
This is smoke caught by a normal atmospheric low. A lot of smoke yes, but it is not causing the low.
The fire and the cyclone were there at  least the day before that prediction so it's hard to say which  impacted which. The centre of the wind system has now moved much closer to the Arctic ocean and any  day now it should start  pushing  a lot of smoke over the Arctic. The system keeps on growing in diameter. Almost  big enough to  cover the Arctic Ocean now. The Arctic ocean with  a smoky blanket and a cyclonic wind pattern in early August is a scary thought.  If it gets there I  would be revising my minimum predictions down by about 500K km^2.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: FireStorm in Siberia
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2019, 11:07:25 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS