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Author Topic: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?  (Read 32551 times)

ASILurker

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #200 on: May 21, 2019, 05:32:36 AM »
Let's imagine this for a minute, where the world moves on, and orange Mussolini gets 4 more years of destroying the American economy, agro-sector, trade relationships, allies, etc. A world that has moved on to mostly renewable energy and the US still in the fossil world, how will America catch up? The county is no more competitive. This means a downward spiral from there on.

In this scenario Lurk, the time runs out for the US and i can't see that as a positive thing.

Besdies my other comments which lay out a very possible (I'd say more likely) scenario to come,

the thing I didn't include was the #1 Problem all those who dream of a Progressive wave or Bernie totlaly ignore and have no answe to.

It is UN-Patriotic and UN-American to criticise or Vote out of Office a sitting U.S. President during War Time. It's never happened before and it won't happen in 2020 either.

Rich

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #201 on: May 21, 2019, 01:20:49 PM »
Let's imagine this for a minute, where the world moves on, and orange Mussolini gets 4 more years of destroying the American economy, agro-sector, trade relationships, allies, etc. A world that has moved on to mostly renewable energy and the US still in the fossil world, how will America catch up? The county is no more competitive. This means a downward spiral from there on.

In this scenario Lurk, the time runs out for the US and i can't see that as a positive thing.

Besdies my other comments which lay out a very possible (I'd say more likely) scenario to come,

the thing I didn't include was the #1 Problem all those who dream of a Progressive wave or Bernie totlaly ignore and have no answe to.

It is UN-Patriotic and UN-American to criticise or Vote out of Office a sitting U.S. President during War Time. It's never happened before and it won't happen in 2020 either.

LBJ got the message that he was no longer welcome as a result of Vietnam and took the hint and drooped out.

Trump isn't going to win any swing votes by starting a war. Democrats won the 2018 midterms by 8-9 million votes. Trump actually being on the ballot is going to be a huge blue motivator.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #202 on: May 25, 2019, 04:02:26 PM »
Best Case Map for Bernie - Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump 2020 Map Prediction


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #203 on: May 26, 2019, 05:01:50 PM »
Republican Voters Seem To Love “Socialist” Policies


Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #204 on: May 28, 2019, 03:04:18 PM »
Best Case Map for Bernie - Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump 2020 Map Prediction



Before you start celebrating, you might want to view the state-by-state approval rating of Obama in 2012:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/156389/thirteen-states-give-obama-majority-approval.aspx

Obama would've totaled 175 EVs based on his approval rating alone.  On election night, he won 332!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #205 on: May 28, 2019, 03:18:41 PM »
Sorry, i fail to see the point you are making Kat. Do you think, Bernie has to expect more votes than estimated in the video?

Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #206 on: May 28, 2019, 07:06:33 PM »
Sorry, i fail to see the point you are making Kat. Do you think, Bernie has to expect more votes than estimated in the video?

No, quite the opposite.  I would expect him to win less, much less.

Prior to the 2012 election, Obama had an overall favorable rating in just 13 states (plus D.C.), totaling 175 electoral votes.  He had an unfavorable rating in the rest, states totaling 363 electoral votes.  The video you presented uses the same logic:  Trump has an unfavorable rating in states totaling 358 electoral votes.  Claiming that Sanders would win these states and the election, is akin to claiming that Romney would win all those states and unseat Obama.  Obviously that did not happen, and is unlikely to happen in 2020. 

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #207 on: May 28, 2019, 07:35:08 PM »
Kat, you are the one confronting people when they cherry-pick. Could it be you are cherry picking right now yourself?

The title of the video is 'best case' scenario, right? I'm not saying the video is 100% correct and he is making the right assumption for every state. But assumptions made are not unreasonable. There is a lot of time until the elections. A lot will happen.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #208 on: May 28, 2019, 08:03:15 PM »
Kat, you are the one confronting people when they cherry-pick. Could it be you are cherry picking right now yourself?

The title of the video is 'best case' scenario, right? I'm not saying the video is 100% correct and he is making the right assumption for every state. But assumptions made are not unreasonable. There is a lot of time until the elections. A lot will happen.

Both instances are similar, whether you call it cherry picking or whatever.  Sure, it is the best possible case for Sanders, but I disagree that the assumptions are not unreasonable.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #209 on: May 29, 2019, 02:32:37 PM »
Quote
So basically Biden’s campaign team hid him away for q0 days to limit his exposure and on his very first day back he does this:

Quote
In a somewhat odd moment at tonight's AFT town hall, Biden tells a 10-year-old girl, “I’ll bet you’re as bright as you are good-looking." He takes her over to the assembled reporters, then stands behind her and puts his hands on her shoulders while he's talking.

https://mobile.twitter.com/greg06897/status/1133513917681098752
 

Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #210 on: May 29, 2019, 11:13:57 PM »
Quote
So basically Biden’s campaign team hid him away for q0 days to limit his exposure and on his very first day back he does this:

Quote
In a somewhat odd moment at tonight's AFT town hall, Biden tells a 10-year-old girl, “I’ll bet you’re as bright as you are good-looking." He takes her over to the assembled reporters, then stands behind her and puts his hands on her shoulders while he's talking.

https://mobile.twitter.com/greg06897/status/1133513917681098752

This is typical Biden - just like the old kissing babies photo ops.

Neven

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #211 on: May 29, 2019, 11:16:20 PM »
But everything will be done to force people to choose between creepy Biden and maniac Trump. Just like last time. And if you don't vote for creepy corrupt neoliberal Biden, well, that's just deplorable and inexcusable.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #212 on: May 30, 2019, 03:43:19 AM »
Agreed Neven another choice between bad and horrible and since our government has restrictions that make it difficult for a third party there is little chance of throwing the bastards out. 

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #213 on: May 30, 2019, 03:44:29 PM »
Will the DNC think twice about handing him the nomination? Also no.


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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #214 on: May 30, 2019, 06:44:04 PM »
This was OT in climate change, the ocean, agriculture and food so I posting my response in who should be democratic nominee for president in 2020
  Note that the financial "bailout" was loans that, overall, were repaid with interest.  The taxpayer made a net profit.  And the world avoided a domino effect of bank failures that would have made the Great Recession look like a picnic.
If all the banks needed were loans the Federal Reserve would have supplied the money and congress would not have been involved. That is what the Federal Reserve does is loan banks money. Banks made a lot of loans to people they knew couldn't afford them. They didn't care if people borrowed too much money because they bundled them up with good loans and sold them on the market as mortgage backed securities. They made more money in fees the more people borrowed. As long as the security didn't go below the original loan amount, its called breaking the buck, the financial institutions were fine. Once it did they were responsible for the difference. The banks knew this mess would hit them so they donated a record amount to politicians the previous election cycle. When it became obvious to wall street that these mortgage backed securities had too many bad loans in them the market turned down and Lehman brothers was the first institution to owe more money on these securities then the company was worth and they went bankrupt. Problem is these mortgage backed securities were repackaged with each repackaging the financial institutions made more money but also became liable if the security broke the buck. Once one firm went down all institutions that made these securities would go bankrupt. The next day congress gets a huge and complex bailout package to vote on that was clearly created long before the previous day. Before congress is allowed to look at the bill they are asked to vote on it without debate. The bailout basically had the banks identify the questionable loans and sell them to Fredie Mac. Fredie Mac is a quasi-government institution and congress footed the bill. That was the troubled asset relief program. While not all of those loans defaulted and some money was recovered by foreclosing.
So far unwinding those bad loans has cost taxpayers 8.5 trillion dollars.
https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/real-cost-2008-recession-12908/
That still makes me angry.
Except for Lehman brothers all the other financial institutions got off with only some increased regulation. They made a profit the following quarter. A short time later congress quietly gutted most of the new rules.
Ironically in anticipation of all this banks pushed for stricter bankruptcy laws for individuals to recover more money
Elizabeth Warren fought the 2005 bankruptcy act for individuals and made a forceful stance for stricter banking regulations knowing that the regulations put in place were insufficient to stop the same thing from happening again. She upset big money fighting for the common person and that is why I think she would make a great president. Unfortunately I doubt she will get the nomination because she pissed off big money.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #215 on: May 30, 2019, 07:51:42 PM »
It strikes me we need a 'economics in the context of climate change' thread Interstitial. ;)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #216 on: May 30, 2019, 07:52:24 PM »
Principles!

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #217 on: May 30, 2019, 07:56:14 PM »
It strikes me we need a 'economics in the context of climate change' thread Interstitial. ;)
Well it was closer than  ocean...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #218 on: May 30, 2019, 08:00:53 PM »
Right. And you even dropped the word 'Warren' in there to make it fit. I do see the effort. Well done.  ;D

Edit: There is already one!
Taking the freedom to x-post this interesting post from Interstitial to give it it's designated home.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 08:10:22 PM by b_lumenkraft »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #219 on: June 01, 2019, 07:01:22 PM »
Did Biden Endorse Cutting Social Security and Medicare? ft. Brandon Sutton


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #220 on: June 02, 2019, 11:13:13 AM »
Best Case Map for Trump - Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders 2020 Map Prediction


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #221 on: June 02, 2019, 02:45:27 PM »
Democratic candidate for the presidency:

Quote
“As Democrats, if we don’t define a clear space between us and socialism, we run the risk of helping to reelect the worst president in American history,”

Crowd:

Quote
BOOOOOOO

Link >> https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1134940635629215745

Quote
Hickenlooper booed at #CADem19 for attacking socialism, which he surely expected

Don't tell me there is hope for America!

Rich

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #222 on: June 03, 2019, 02:31:31 PM »
I'd like to see Sanders and Warren run as a tag team. Whichever one has the better showing in Iowa gets the top of the ticket and the other gets whatever role they want in the next administration.


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #223 on: June 04, 2019, 06:19:47 AM »
Biden Tanking In The Polls - Here's Why

Video shows Biden for the person he is: A bigot, a racist, a misanthrope! Just like the acting president. Why would Dems bother voting if he becomes the candidate?


Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #224 on: June 04, 2019, 02:46:35 PM »
Tanking? 
The three polls so far this week (Harvard Harris, The Hill/Harris, and the Morning Consult) have him polling at 36, 35, and 38%.  Both the Harris poll and Monmouth had him polling at 33% two weeks ago.  Quinnipiac and Fox News had him at 35%.  The Morning Consult was at 38% last week and 39% the two previous weeks.  Is that 1% drop your definition of tanking?

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #226 on: June 05, 2019, 11:55:45 AM »
2 More Democratic Primary Polls! June 2019 - Bernie Gaining on Biden?


Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #227 on: June 05, 2019, 03:32:39 PM »
Bernie has a long way to go, as his polling numbers are significantly lower than they were earlier this year.  It looks as if his only chance is for both Warren and Harris to drop out and throw their support to him.  Even if that were to happen (which I do not believe will), that would only bring him even with Biden right now.  Still a long to go, so anything can happen.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #228 on: June 05, 2019, 03:41:47 PM »
Good there is still some time til 2020. ;)


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #230 on: June 05, 2019, 04:50:29 PM »
From Toms link:

Quote
This is not the first time a Biden presidential campaign has been interrupted with a plagiarism scandal. In 1988, his bid for the presidency was sunk by accusations that he plagiarized a speech by British politician Neil Kinnock.

I would love to hear him talking about copyright laws.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #231 on: June 06, 2019, 01:16:58 PM »
Joe Biden's Bad Week Just Got MUCH Worse


Tom_Mazanec

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #233 on: June 06, 2019, 01:49:04 PM »
From Toms link:

Quote
Over the past eight months, climate change has shot up as a core Democratic issue in polls. Murray noted that while it certainly came up during the 2016 presidential primary and was discussed on the sidelines in 2018, this year marks a noticeable shift.

“If we look at 2016 and even 2018 among Democratic voters, there was a whole host of issues, and climate change was, ‘by the way, what do you think of that?’” Murray said. “It’s no longer an add-on, it’s become a core issue for many voters.”

If correct, about time!

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #234 on: June 06, 2019, 08:06:50 PM »
Maybe not correct, b_lumenkraft (at least not for the Party):
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/06/democratic-party-bars-climate-change-debate/
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #235 on: June 06, 2019, 08:20:50 PM »
Holy shit!

Quote
The campaign of Democratic presidential contender Jay Inslee reports that the Democratic Party has also told him that if he participates in anyone else’s climate change debate, he will be barred from future debates.

Is the DNC just killing itself?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #236 on: June 06, 2019, 08:22:23 PM »
Does Ocasio-Cortes' $10,000,000,000,000.00 price tag make her more or less likely to win, ASIFers?
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/447077-ocasio-cortez-10-trillion-needed-for-effective-climate-plan
 
ALSO: Elizabeth Warren's plan:
https://medium.com/@teamwarren/my-green-manufacturing-plan-for-america-fc0ad53ab614
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #237 on: June 07, 2019, 01:36:29 AM »
Does Ocasio-Cortes' $10,000,000,000,000.00 price tag make her more or less likely to win, ASIFers?
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/447077-ocasio-cortez-10-trillion-needed-for-effective-climate-plan
 
ALSO: Elizabeth Warren's plan:
https://medium.com/@teamwarren/my-green-manufacturing-plan-for-america-fc0ad53ab614

The total size of the US economy is around $20 trillion.  Earlier this year, Democrats were negotiating with President Trump on a $2 trillion infrastructure package.

So energy/infrastructure packages ranging from $2 to $20 trillion, spread over a decade, are not unrealistic.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #238 on: June 07, 2019, 01:55:18 AM »
It should be noted that private investment in renewable energy is expected to reach $1 trillion in the US by 2030.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/07/11/top-renewable-energy-financiers-reveal-pathway-to-1-trillion-in-u-s-investment/#42915dd734b0

Quote
In this same scenario, respondents predict that cumulative private investment in U.S. renewable energy projects, as well as related investment in enabling grid technology, could hit $1 trillion between 2018 and 2030.

Policy Signals and Market Factors will Drive Investment

As with any investment class, renewable energy investors seek long-term policy certainty. The solar and wind industries already know existing tax credits remain on schedule to phase out after 2021, and federal policy signals will remain important to long-term investor confidence.

Investors say federal action to address climate externalities through carbon pricing and/or a technology-neutral tax credit for zero-carbon electricity generation could encourage growth, which is promising considering the increasing conservative support for a national carbon tax. However, state action is likely to also play a significant role in stimulating demand through ambitious renewable portfolio standards along with siting and permitting process reforms.

So $1 trillion from private renewable energy investments.  Add in Government facilities (such as military bases, large DOE reserves, leases for solar or wind farms on Government owned land) and you could easily double that.

Then look at electrification of vehicle fleets, energy efficiency in buildings, battery storage for renwable power plants, etc...  It wouldn't take much to get to $5 to $10 trillion, especially if you factor in tax breaks for qualifying investments.  Spread it out over 10 years (more likely 8 to 9 to meet the 2030 goals) and it's doable.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #239 on: June 08, 2019, 01:58:13 AM »
Also, AOC isn't running for President.  She's only 29 so won't be eligible to serve as President (and thus won't be a candidate for Vice President either) until 2028.  The US constitution requires people serving as President to be at least 35 years old.

She's one of the sponsors of the Green New Deal, so she's pushing the candidates to get more aggressive about their plans to address climate change.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #240 on: June 08, 2019, 06:40:50 AM »
2020-2028 - Bernie
2028-2036 - AOC

Works for me!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #241 on: June 08, 2019, 08:23:03 AM »
Koch Bros To Spend Money On Corporate Democrats


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #242 on: June 08, 2019, 06:15:11 PM »
2020 Candidates Asked About Money in Politics


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Rich

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #244 on: June 09, 2019, 02:57:23 AM »
Also, AOC isn't running for President.  She's only 29 so won't be eligible to serve as President (and thus won't be a candidate for Vice President either) until 2028.  The US constitution requires people serving as President to be at least 35 years old.

She's one of the sponsors of the Green New Deal, so she's pushing the candidates to get more aggressive about their plans to address climate change.

AOC will turn 35 in October 2024. She would be eligible in the next go round.

sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #245 on: June 11, 2019, 11:17:30 PM »
Well hello there: moderators for DNC debate announced

"Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart will moderate the debate"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/nbc-announces-five-moderators-first-democratic-debate-n1016106

sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #246 on: June 11, 2019, 11:21:04 PM »
Wai, what ? Salon of all outlets putting the knife into Biden ?

" My anxiety soon passed, but not my foreboding. Clinton would go on decrying Trump and offering herself as a seasoned steward of a system without fundamental flaws. Then she would lose."

" Biden is America’s foremost living proponent of bipartisanship. Why anyone still salutes it is a mystery. The reputation of every big bipartisan "achievement" of the last 30 years is in tatters: NAFTA; the mid-'90s crime and welfare bills; the late-'90s Wall Street deregulation; No Child Left Behind; the bankruptcy bill; the Iraq war. Biden was for every single one of them."

"What Clinton and Biden have most in common is a shared faith in the economic consensus of political elites. It’s a bipartisanship rooted not in civility but in the interests of their donors. It is our most insidious form of corruption; it’s why our government stopped acting in the interests of our people, why our people lost faith in our democracy. It’s the main reason Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump."

"In every election the word comes to Democrats from on high: Cancel the debate, circle the wagons, sideline the populists. Most of all, placate the donors. The price we paid for that is President Donald Trump."

https://www.salon.com/2019/06/10/is-joe-biden-the-new-hillary-democrats-must-have-a-real-debate-to-avoid-disaster/

The author: " was White House counselor to President Clinton ... "

sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #247 on: June 11, 2019, 11:22:47 PM »
America's Finest News Source:

" the DNC had gone too far in insisting candidates be able to present a coherent strategy for addressing a single one of the many problems the nation faces"

"party officials confirmed the new debate requirement would not apply to former vice president Joe Biden, who has committed himself to running a policy-free campaign."

https://politics.theonion.com/dnc-criticized-for-overly-restrictive-debate-rules-requ-1835412876

sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #249 on: June 13, 2019, 12:21:41 PM »
Thanks sid for the link to onion. Shared to Skeptical Science.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.