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Author Topic: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?  (Read 12841 times)

Lurk

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #200 on: May 15, 2019, 07:03:52 AM »
Tulsi Gabbard would drop charges against Assange & Snowden
Published time: 14 May, 2019

https://www.rt.com/usa/459356-gabbard-assange-snowden-charges/

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seancoulter

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #201 on: May 15, 2019, 09:15:53 AM »
From my point of view, Joe Biden is the best choice not only for Democrats but for the entire country. Only he can win the election over D. Trump. Not Bernie Sanders with his socialist principles. And not some Beto O'Rourke. 

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #202 on: May 15, 2019, 09:21:31 AM »
Sean, why do you think that? Is Biden better on the issues? If so which ones and why? Or because of his name recognition? Or something else?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #203 on: May 16, 2019, 07:33:51 AM »
Did Joe Biden Take A Blow To The Head?


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #204 on: May 16, 2019, 01:26:25 PM »
4 More Democratic Primary Polls! May 2019 - Democratic Presidential Candidates 2020


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #205 on: May 16, 2019, 04:31:41 PM »
Let's talk about the candidate who can beat Trump...


sidd

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #207 on: May 17, 2019, 01:00:41 PM »
Biden Assures Rich Donors He'll Protect Them From Bernie's Taxes


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #208 on: May 17, 2019, 02:16:32 PM »
Is Biden Even More Out Of Touch Than Hillary Clinton? ft. Emma Vigeland



Ken Feldman

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #209 on: May 17, 2019, 11:06:54 PM »
The Democratic Party has new rules for caucuses and primaries this year that have lead to many states switching from caucuses to primaries.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-democrats-move-away-from-caucuses-affect-the-2020-race/

Quote
But party reforms have also led to the increased use of primaries in 2020. Specifically, the DNC delegate-selection rules now say that state parties should try to use government-run primaries if they are available. And if a state party doesn’t have that option, party-run events (including caucuses) are required to allow absentee or early voting and same-day voter registration, plus implement procedures for recounts. For a state such as Washington, which was by far the largest caucus state by population in 2016, it was much easier to meet these rule changes by using Washington’s government-run primary than by adapting its caucuses.

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Of course, increased voter turnout could change which candidates benefit — or suffer — from that voting system. “The conventional wisdom is that caucuses favor more ideological candidates,” said Kamarck. Understandably, then, of the 2020 Democratic presidential field, Sanders is the candidate who’s often named as most likely to take a hit. In 2016, he won all 10 caucus states that are moving to some type of primary in 2020, though the field was far smaller in 2016, when most caucuses were head-to-head matchups between Sanders and Clinton. That said, Sanders probably owes some of his success in the caucuses to the fact that these low-turnout events tend to reward candidates who have strongly ideological and deeply committed supporters, and the move toward more primaries could erode that advantage.

Bernie Sanders won the caucus in Washington in 2016, 72% to 18%.  There was also a primary that didn't count, and Hillary Clinton won that 52% to 48%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington_Democratic_caucuses

Ken Feldman

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #210 on: May 18, 2019, 12:19:54 AM »
Let's talk about the candidate who can beat Trump...

...

Here's another way of looking at the "electability issue".

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/05/12/what-if-electability-is-more-about-authenticity-than-moderation/

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There is a big disconnect in Democratic politics right now. On the one hand, a majority of Democratic primary voters are backing Biden at this early date—not because he lines up with their policy preferences, but because they believe he’s the safest and most electable choice.

Meanwhile, we continue to see stories of Trump voters gravitating not toward centrist candidates like Biden, but toward more progressive politicians like Elizabeth Warren and even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Take this excerpt from Politico, for instance:

"It was a startling spectacle in the heart of Trump country: At least a dozen supporters of the president — some wearing MAGA stickers — nodding their heads, at times even clapping, for liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren.

The sighting alone of a Democratic presidential candidate in this town of fewer than 400 people — in a county where more than four in five voters cast their ballot for Trump in 2016 — was unusual. Warren’s team was apprehensive about how she’d be received."

Quote
One hallmark of these types of voters is that they strongly distrust politicians and the political system in general, believing that all politicians tell people whatever they want to hear while actually doing the bidding of special interest groups. They believe, not entirely incorrectly, that the whole system is corrupt. They despise partisan bickering—not because they believe that Congress needs more “moderate” peacemakers, but because they believe the bickering is an artifact of corrupt interest groups setting their lackeys against one another. When they say they want less partisanship, that doesn’t mean they want politicians from both sides of the aisle to come together to enact moderate policies. Many of these voters, after all, are not that informed about policy nuances or where the parties stand: some don’t even know which political party is the stronger defender of Medicare! Rather, they want politicians who they view as authentically placing the interests of real people ahead of corrupt special interests. The policy specifics are secondary to that. One of the great ironies of the 2016 election is that the famously corrupt and probably financially compromised Donald Trump somehow convinced a large number of people that he was so rich that he couldn’t be bought, and knew where all the loopholes were.

This is where candidates like Warren and Ocasio-Cortez can make a serious dent in Trump’s base. By being authentically themselves and speaking in plain English about the problems facing Americans, by talking clearly about the ways the wealthy warp the political system and exposing their opponents as corrupted agents of special interest money, they have a better shot than most at peeling off what few persuadable cross-pressured voters remain in the electorate. They can also inspire non-voters who have given up on the political system to give it one more chance. They likely have a much better chance of doing so than nominating moderate politicians who carefully parse their words and speak only in the most carefully poll-tested language.

It may well be, in other words, that Democrats have been getting electability wrong for decades now, and that the biggest obstacle facing Democratic voters is their mistaken belief in a silent majority of voters more conservative than themselves. It may well be that the same candidates who appeal authentically to progressive emotional sensibilities will also appeal to the voters Democrats most need to persuade in the purple districts and states they need to win. At the same time, they might just be the ones to bring out people who otherwise wouldn’t vote at all.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #211 on: May 18, 2019, 05:20:27 AM »
It may well be, in other words, that Democrats have been getting electability wrong for decades now,

Yep!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #212 on: May 19, 2019, 05:11:37 PM »
The New York Times Exposed For Sabotaging Bernie Sanders 2020


sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #213 on: Today at 06:38:34 AM »
I was torn between posting this on the media thread or this one. Behold all ye ladies, gentlemen and other gender persuasions a great example of the oldfashioned, yellow journalism hit piece. Markay at dailybeast:

"campaign ... underwritten by some of the nation’s leading Russophiles ... is one of her party’s more Russia-friendly voices ... financial support from prominent pro-Russian voices ... the nation’s leading intellectual apologist for Russian president ... have long worked to improve U.S.-Russia relations ... outspoken Putin supporter ... routinely promotes the Russian government line ... toe the Kremlin line ... attitude of a small set of the American left wing"

And throw in a bit of KKK as a garnish:

"former KKK leader, has heaped praise on her ... white supremacist, has tweeted favorably"

In fifty years or more, Markay might develop to get as good as say, Taibbi in his epic takedown of Friedman. But I doubt it.

I would link to the piece, but trust me, it isn't worth reading. Like I said, mebbe in fifty years, if markay is still around.

If you were wondering why it's on this thread, it's about Gabbard.

sidd


Rich

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #214 on: Today at 08:31:56 AM »
At this point, it looks like the race is going to whittle down to Biden vs. Sanders who are the two candidates who poll ahead of Trump head to head by the biggest margins.

Buttigieg had a nice moment, but he polls worst among the higher polling candidates vs Trump in a GE matchup and has almost no support among black voters.

Harris is a formidable candidate, but beating Trump is paramount and strength in States like PA, WI, MI don't seem to be her calling card.

Warren has been coming on impressively but she isn't even leading in her home state of MA. If she somehow pulls off a miracle and surpasses Sanders by Iowa, I'm pretty sure that Sanders would drop out and offer he his full throated support. I'm not sure that she would return the favor.

Whichever of Sanders or Warren prevails among progressives will gain the endorsement of AOC.

The endorsements of the candidates who drop out will be tricky.

Sanders and AOC represent the future of the party with dominant share among young voters. If a candidate endorses Biden, that's not going to position them well for future elections.

From all indications, Buttigieg is auditioning for a role in a Biden Administration and will endorse accordingly. His career mobility in Indiana state politics is limited.

What will Harris do? I'm guessing Biden or Bernie would offer VP or AG in return for an endorsement. If she wants to remain in the Senate, it would be good to note that CA is more progressive than the country as a whole.

Warren disappointed a lot of progressives by not endorsing Bernie in 2016. If she and Bernie and AOC are a tag team vs. Biden, they have a shot.

I see a lot of people worried about the crowded field and the possibility of a brokered convention. I think that's misplaced. The 15% viability threshold will thin the field very quickly. 


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #215 on: Today at 09:11:00 AM »
That's a good analysis, Rich.

Let me add, IMHO voter turnout will win or lose this election. When the Democratic candidate is Biden, young voters and progressives will not vote at all. American lefties are sick and tired of voting for the lesser evil. They want a reasonable candidate for once. One, they can burn for, or else they will just not bother to show up on election day.

Lurk

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #216 on: Today at 11:12:37 AM »
Middle of last year I still had some hope for a positive change in the US (eg an honest good  Dem President in 2020 with a real agenda) via a reinvigorated more ethic democratic party due to the positive influences of in and out of the Party that generally supported the ideas and IDEALS of the "do something about climate and the war mongering asap" Bernie AOC Tulsi Warren types and the like (not picking sides).

Then the 2018 election came and went, GND came and went, the Russiagate mueller report came and went and I've simply been "observing" it all from afar.   

Today on 2019-05-20 it's a lost cause. So go out on a limb and I'll call it now
- Donald Trump will win the 2020 General Election
- GOP will hold the Senate and
- GOP will win the House of Reps back (or miss by only a very small margin.) 

Who the Dem. Nominee is is irrelevant - makes no difference at all.  They've already lost.
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