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Author Topic: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?  (Read 41223 times)

Neven

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #750 on: November 19, 2019, 12:23:41 AM »
Neven, the reason I voted for Trump was solely on the abortion issue.

Well, he got your vote very cheaply, because Trump doesn't care one bit about abortion.

Quote
You brought up voting for Bernie, implying that anyone who would not vote for him (like me) is worse than a Nazi who rapes and kills children in his off-hours.

I didn't imply anything. I said very directly that anyone who doesn't vote for him, isn't serious about AGW. And I don't want people who are not serious about AGW, to be part of this Forum. All very straightforward.

Quote
If you don't want to debate abortion with people like me, then don't demand that we all vote for Bernie. And I won't debate abortion, then.

Wrong. I can both refuse to debate abortion and demand people on this Forum to be serious about AGW, which I do.

Quote
And if you should not pass a law if it cannot wipe out what you are legislating against, then you should not pass any laws.

That's not what I said. I'm quite sure that you can impose laws that punish people having or assisting with abortions, but I'm also quite sure that this has implications and unintended consequences that God will not be pleased with. God wants people to have free will (which is why Jesus was sacrificed), and people meddling with this, are essentially playing God, and God really doesn't like that.

Never mind the fact that sinful people like Trump abuse people's mistaken wish for abortion legislature to further their sinful agendas. So, voting for them is really, really wrong (as was voting for Clinton).

Finally, if you really think it through and are genuinely worried about unborn generations, AGW is one huge abortion. Only a vote for Bernie Sanders offers the possibility, not a certainty, but a possibility that the worst is prevented. A vote for anyone else is a waste of time and energy.

If you can't or do not want to see this, I kindly ask you to leave this Forum and find some place where it is okay not to be serious about AGW. This shouldn't be a problem.
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bbr2314

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #751 on: November 19, 2019, 12:35:03 AM »
Michael Bloomberg is a bigger advocate on climate change than Bernie, IMO. He also has an actual track record on the issue that includes actions, not just words.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-05/our-highest-office-my-deepest-obligation

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Here’s one way I’ll do that. In 2011, following the failure of cap and trade legislation in Congress, I teamed up with the Sierra Club on a campaign called Beyond Coal. By organizing and mobilizing communities affected by the harmful pollution of coal-fired power plants, we have helped close more than half the nation’s plants — 285 out of 530 — and replaced them with cleaner and cheaper energy. That was the single biggest reason the U.S. has been able to reduce its carbon footprint by 11 percent — and cut deaths from coal power plants from 13,000 to 3,000.

Now, I will take the next big steps. First, I will expand my support for the Beyond Coal campaign so that we can retire every single coal-fired power plant over the next 11 years. That’s not a pipe dream. We can do it. And second, I will launch a new, even more ambitious phase of the campaign — Beyond Carbon: a grassroots effort to begin moving America as quickly as possible away from oil and gas and toward a 100 percent clean energy economy.

At the heart of Beyond Carbon is the conviction that, as the science has made clear, every year matters. The idea of a Green New Deal — first suggested by the columnist Tom Friedman more than a decade ago — stands no chance of passage in the Senate over the next two years. But Mother Nature does not wait on our political calendar, and neither can we.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #752 on: November 19, 2019, 01:31:13 AM »
Well, I was dubious about Trump's prolife stance, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt since he had the endorsement (I voted for Kasich in the Primary). His picks to the Supreme Court seem to be in line with Right to Life, although I think he could have done better.
And I am serious about AGW. But I am also serious about abortion. If a million Americans were dying of heatstroke each year, I would vote for the environmentalist candidate, even if s/he were prochoice. Maybe in 2040 that will be the case, and I will be voting that way. But I am not living in 2040. I am living in 2019 and I have to arrange the issues in order of importance as they are right now. If there were a prolife environmentalist candidate who had an Irish Sweepstakes chance of winning I would vote for himer right now. But there isn't one to my knowledge.
I will be perfectly happy to discuss the science, economics, technology, etc. of AGW and leave politics out, if you do the same. Otherwise, you are saying that you can make any political assertions you want and I have the choice, if I disagree:
1) Agree with you (and lie).
2) Shut up (and you are the only one who gets to talk).
On the other hand, if you bring politics into it then I will bring my own beliefs here. If you can dish it out, you can take it. I have been called nasty things in my 20+ years on the Web, and I have never reported a post, and only one PM (who seemed to be taking on the role of moderator or administrator unannounced).
EDIT: And that is an interesting view on laws and God. I take it you think God is against legislating against the sin of rape? That is a less serious sin than Murder, which abortion is. So God is against meddling with people's free will to commit rape?
« Last Edit: November 19, 2019, 02:40:50 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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CognitiveBias

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #753 on: November 19, 2019, 02:38:25 AM »
CognitiveBias:
Once a child is conceived it already knows life. And you are forcing your values on them. Fatally.

The unconscious entity at early stages of development most definitely does not know life.  Sorry.  And I'm not forcing my value on them.  I'm saying that my values do not override those of the woman deciding to carry, or not carry that child to term.


oren

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #754 on: November 19, 2019, 03:06:59 AM »
If reducing aerosols and CO2 results in an acceleration of the +SWE trends across North America (where they are most prominent), Americans would actually have a moral imperative to vote for Trump. I understand this viewpoint is controversial but history demonstrates that the Younger Dryas and other sustained advances in continental SWE have first impacted North America.

Paradoxically, this means we must actually support the agents behind AGW. It is easy for Greta to say America should stop polluting when Eurasia's glacial advance will be decades or centuries behind North America. It is not so easy for North Americans to say "we will sacrifice our continent so that Greta can frolic in meadows somewhere else while we starve and die".

Basically, we are extremely screwed and there is nothing we can really do about it, so blaming it on politicians or believing they can make a difference when we have already unleashed an event in the making that could fall somewhere between the Younger Dryas and the KT impact in terms of global significance, is completely folly. As is this entire thread. LOL. We are screwed and pretending we can do something about it is somewhat worse than acknowledging what may be impending and planning for a societal back-up as everything around us collapses.

If ASIF members cannot agree that Bernie Sanders needs to be the Democratic nominee and then the president, or are unwilling to act accordingly, they are not serious about AGW, and I don't want people who are not serious about AGW to be members of the ASIF any longer. Which means I kindly ask those people to leave this forum and spend their time elsewhere, a place where it's okay not to be serious about AGW (there are many).
I personally find future mass murder of living children and adults in the coming decades by AGW to be a much more terrible sin than present "murder" of embryos, especially those recently created or those forced upon the woman or those that put the woman risk or those that put other cohabiting embryos at risk (our personal case).
However, banning Tom for his political priorities - even though he IS serious about AGW, has shown that in his many posts on this forum and desires to learn more and spread it around - and banning others like him, is a great way of ensuring that AGW remain a politically divisive issue for just those pure at heart. A huge mistake IMHO, and one that would make this forum the poorer. (Not to be confused with the blessed policy of kicking out plain and veiled deniers). Forcibly converting this unique and quite impactful forum from a science-oriented one to a politically-oriented one just to satisfy the owner's leanings could exacerbate AGW. Seriously. (Although I usually support these leanings and have great admiration and thanks for said owner). Even just announcing such a policy without enforcement could cause quite a few members to walk out in disgust and frustration.

OTOH, when a poster who has been advancing a hare-brained theory of impending glaciation for years all over the forum - despite lots of evidence and arguments to the contrary posted in the appropriate threads - has finally revealed his hand by claiming nothing should be done about AGW to avoid hastening this impending glaciation, maybe it's time to reconsider the policy of scientific tolerance.

bbr2314

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #755 on: November 19, 2019, 03:28:40 AM »

OTOH, when a poster who has been advancing a hare-brained theory of impending glaciation for years all over the forum - despite lots of evidence and arguments to the contrary posted in the appropriate threads - has finally revealed his hand by claiming nothing should be done about AGW to avoid hastening this impending glaciation, maybe it's time to reconsider the policy of scientific tolerance.

I didn't say nothing should be done, I said, it is possible -- if not probable -- that at this point, our fate is sealed. Crucifying me for this would be like saying Mr. Andrews deserved to die on the Titanic because he said it would be at the bottom of the Atlantic within short order.

I support Bloomberg for many reasons, including his stance on climate change, which I believe to be more robust than any other candidate including Bernie Sanders. That does not mean it will make any difference. You have always had it out for me. IDK why, I have never done anything to you. My "hare-brained" theories are also verifying in the form of massive +SWE departures growing season by season, and record cold temperatures becoming much more common across the "Triangle of Coldness".

I have also kept my posts on this theory confined to wherever it is relevant, specifically, I have stopped posting it in the main forum and taken it to my threads in the snowcover area, where you still harass me. Why don't you just put me on ignore? I can return the favor if you like, I thought we had no beef, but evidently, you still have a bone to pick.

It is especially ironic that a poster who ascribes to the notion of AGW and imminent doom if it is not stopped would buckle at the prospect that, surprise, AGW is producing imminent doom, and a mechanism for said doom is now revealing itself across parts of North America. It's ok to say the world will end due to AGW, it is taboo to say how it will happen or that it will be occurring soon. LOL OK.

I will end with an addendum. I have nowhere else to post my ideas. I have no interest in posting anywhere else, either. There really is no other forum where my ideas can be read or received and discourse can be had on the subject. I am only here in good faith. I participate in all discussion regardless of the season or the subject and do my best to learn. The way you behave towards me is aggressive, it is mean, it is bullying. It is repetitive. It is non-stop. And it is tolerated. Yet I do not insult you, I do not stalk you, I leave you alone completely. Can you please just leave me alone?
« Last Edit: November 19, 2019, 03:39:57 AM by bbr2314 »

oren

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #756 on: November 19, 2019, 03:44:31 AM »
You have always had it out for me. IDK why, I have never done anything to you. My "hare-brained" theories are also verifying in the form of massive +SWE departures growing season by season, and record cold temperatures becoming much more common across the "Triangle of Coldness".

I have also kept my posts on this theory confined to wherever it is relevant, specifically, I have stopped posting it in the main forum and taken it to my threads in the snowcover area, where you still harass me. Why don't you just put me on ignore? I can return the favor if you like, I thought we had no beef, but evidently, you still have a bone to pick.
I have NOT always had it out for you, and have no beef with you. I did and do have it out for your glaciation theory, which is not verifying btw (as opposed to massive fall/winter snows which have a good reason).
Here we are again, discussing it in the wrong thread, where I am unable to respond.

bbr2314

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #757 on: November 19, 2019, 03:45:28 AM »
You have always had it out for me. IDK why, I have never done anything to you. My "hare-brained" theories are also verifying in the form of massive +SWE departures growing season by season, and record cold temperatures becoming much more common across the "Triangle of Coldness".

I have also kept my posts on this theory confined to wherever it is relevant, specifically, I have stopped posting it in the main forum and taken it to my threads in the snowcover area, where you still harass me. Why don't you just put me on ignore? I can return the favor if you like, I thought we had no beef, but evidently, you still have a bone to pick.
I have NOT always had it out for you, and have no beef with you. I did and do have it out for your glaciation theory, which is not verifying btw (as opposed to massive fall/winter snows which have a good reason).
Here we are again, discussing it in the wrong thread, where I am unable to respond.

Who brought it up? It wasn't me. It was you. So don't blame me. I don't want to fight with you. I am happy to let this go.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #758 on: November 19, 2019, 04:16:52 AM »
Let me also point out that, while I think it probable that hundreds of millions, if not billions, will die of Global Warming in the next hundred years, I have always had a skepticism that I would reach the Beatles 64. First because nuclear war would destroy civilization. Then because the Millennium Bug would destroy civilization (I was a faithful reader of Gary North). Then because Peak Oil would destroy civilization. I have a couple years and change left, and so far I have a perfect score. Zero. A quarter would have an 87.5% chance of doing a better job and couldn't do any worse. But abortion has killed hundreds of millions of babies in my lifetime. I must make my vote on present realities, if necessary (and it is) choosing the lesser evil.
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bbr2314

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #759 on: November 19, 2019, 04:21:30 AM »
Let me also point out that, while I think it probable that hundreds of millions, if not billions, will die of Global Warming in the next hundred years, I have always had a skepticism that I would reach the Beatles 64. First because nuclear war would destroy civilization. Then because the Millennium Bug would destroy civilization (I was a faithful reader of Gary North). Then because Peak Oil would destroy civilization. I have a couple years and change left, and so far I have a perfect score. Zero. A quarter would have an 87.5% chance of doing a better job and couldn't do any worse. But abortion has killed hundreds of millions of babies in my lifetime. I must make my vote on present realities, if necessary (and it is) choosing the lesser evil.
I think it is interesting to consider that bogeymen always exist in western society because of the lack of visible external threats. Humans have evolved to respond to constant threats. So whether they exist or not, we are hardwired to fear the millennium bug, peak oil, etc. Not so much females it seems -- perhaps because they typically were not the ones who dealt with external threats -- but among males, the paranoia is strong, and I am certainly no exception. When the DMI ran away back in 2016, I was convinced the world would be over by now. It is nice to be wrong!

sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #760 on: November 19, 2019, 06:09:33 AM »
Can we take the some of the abortion discussion to the population thread ?

 Mr. Manzanec has made clear his views, as have others. If he wishes to post on the nature and magnitude of the abortion vote, that ought be welcomed. As to the pros,cons, moral implications of abortion, that might be better suited to the population thread.

In that spirit, i posted something there

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,473.msg237352.html#msg237352

sidd




TerryM

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #761 on: November 19, 2019, 06:20:57 AM »
Don't throw out the baby with the bath water!


Sincerely
Terry

Klondike Kat

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #762 on: November 19, 2019, 03:07:59 PM »
Let me also point out that, while I think it probable that hundreds of millions, if not billions, will die of Global Warming in the next hundred years, I have always had a skepticism that I would reach the Beatles 64. First because nuclear war would destroy civilization. Then because the Millennium Bug would destroy civilization (I was a faithful reader of Gary North). Then because Peak Oil would destroy civilization. I have a couple years and change left, and so far I have a perfect score. Zero. A quarter would have an 87.5% chance of doing a better job and couldn't do any worse. But abortion has killed hundreds of millions of babies in my lifetime. I must make my vote on present realities, if necessary (and it is) choosing the lesser evil.
I think it is interesting to consider that bogeymen always exist in western society because of the lack of visible external threats. Humans have evolved to respond to constant threats. So whether they exist or not, we are hardwired to fear the millennium bug, peak oil, etc. Not so much females it seems -- perhaps because they typically were not the ones who dealt with external threats -- but among males, the paranoia is strong, and I am certainly no exception. When the DMI ran away back in 2016, I was convinced the world would be over by now. It is nice to be wrong!

Both these posts exemplify the potential for paranoia and fear.  The possiblity that a catastrophe could occur in the near (or not to distant) future does hit a nerve with many people.  Some of the above examples show that.  One could even add the Population Bomb and Saddam Hussain's WMDs.  Politicians know this quite well, and will use this fear to enact particular legislation or garner support for a particular activity.  The bottom line is that whenever there is a perceived threat, actions occur to deter that threat.  Actions are currently occurred to stem AGW, just not as fast as some would like.  I firmly believe that these actions would accelerate if/when the threat manifests itself more fully or imminently.  People tend to respond in proportion to the perceived threat.  Hence, one could argue that Tom has the more valid argument due to the current manifestation of his concern.

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #763 on: November 19, 2019, 08:29:42 PM »
'What Momentum Looks Like': Sanders Becomes Fastest Presidential Candidate in History to Reach 4 Million Individual Donations

Quote
Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign announced Tuesday morning that it reached four million individual contributions faster than any presidential candidate in history, a milestone the campaign touted as evidence that the Vermont senator is surging with less than 80 days to go before the Iowa caucuses.

Link >> https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/19/what-momentum-looks-sanders-becomes-fastest-presidential-candidate-history-reach-4
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sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #764 on: November 19, 2019, 10:04:14 PM »
Reed wrote a prescient article in 1996 in Village Voice about a senator from illinois  named Barack Obama:

“In Chicago, for instance, we’ve gotten a foretaste of the new breed of foundation-hatched black communitarian voices; one of them, a smooth Harvard lawyer with impeccable do-good credentials and vacuous-to-repressive neoliberal politics, has won a state senate seat on a base mainly in the liberal foundation and development worlds. His fundamentally bootstrap line was softened by a patina of the rhetoric of authentic community, talk about meeting in kitchens, small-scale solutions to social problems, and the predictable elevation of process over program — the point where identity politics converges with old-fashioned middle-class reform in favoring form over substance. I suspect that his ilk is the wave of the future in U.S. black politics, as in Haiti and wherever else the International Monetary Fund has sway."

In 2008  he warned that voting for Obama was not a cure for the ills of the nation, that Obama was not at all what he appeared to be. In 2014, in Harpers he delineated the long surrender of the american left. In short he is a man worth attention.

Now he predicts that Sanders will not be allowed to win the nomination or that he will be killed:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/471070-adolph-reed-jr-responds-to-obama-warns-establishment-wont-let-bernie-win

sidd

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #765 on: November 20, 2019, 04:32:57 PM »
Now he predicts that Sanders will not be allowed to win the nomination or that he will be killed:

Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Ayanna Presley, Rashida Talib, and Bernie Sanders are the most threatened people in the world right now. There are bulks of nazis out there promising to end them.

Secret service doing nothing of course. Since they are not from the establishment they can be spared...
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blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #766 on: November 20, 2019, 09:14:09 PM »
Tulsi On Her 'Single Payer Plus' Healthcare Plan (Hint: It's bullshit!)

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blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #767 on: November 20, 2019, 09:15:50 PM »
Elizabeth Warren Backtracks On Medicare For All (Of course, she did!)

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blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #768 on: November 20, 2019, 09:17:13 PM »
... and to make the trio of lying pieces of crap complete:

Mayor Pete's Record Breaking Medicare For All Flip Flop

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bbr2314

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #769 on: November 20, 2019, 09:19:55 PM »
Now he predicts that Sanders will not be allowed to win the nomination or that he will be killed:

Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Ayanna Presley, Rashida Talib, and Bernie Sanders are the most threatened people in the world right now. There are bulks of nazis out there promising to end them.

Secret service doing nothing of course. Since they are not from the establishment they can be spared...
Ilhan Omar is essentially a terrorist, "some people did something," also she is incredibly corrupt and is f*cking her own brother. AOC helped torpedo Amazon's HQ2 in NYC. Do you really want to back domestic actors whose main targets are opportunities and liberty?

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #770 on: November 20, 2019, 09:46:54 PM »
Hey, Bbr, i have never heard you distance yourself from right-wing terrorists. Why is that? Are you a terrorist supporter?

(In case you didn't get what i just said, let me give you a hint: This is what you just did with Ilhan. I want no answer obviously. If you are answering anyway, you only show that you still don't get it which would be pretty embarrassing!)
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bbr2314

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #771 on: November 20, 2019, 10:16:13 PM »
Hey, Bbr, i have never heard you distance yourself from right-wing terrorists. Why is that? Are you a terrorist supporter?

(In case you didn't get what i just said, let me give you a hint: This is what you just did with Ilhan. I want no answer obviously. If you are answering anyway, you only show that you still don't get it which would be pretty embarrassing!)
....what? She literally said 9/11 is not a big deal. You are not worth engaging, my mistake.

Neven

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #772 on: November 20, 2019, 11:58:20 PM »
OK, this is too much stupidity. Henceforth, bbr2314 is banned.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #773 on: November 21, 2019, 09:33:45 AM »
 Not the most outrages lie he spread, but surely one of the more dangerous ones.

Sad you can't ban the lies, only the people who spread them. He will keep hating. :(
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #774 on: November 21, 2019, 12:17:23 PM »
The fifth dem debate has finished.

Watching Tulsi and Pete go back and forth was something. Watching Booker roast Biden over marijuana was hilarious.

Steyer and Yang both made some good points, points that should be considered by Bernie.
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sedziobs

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #775 on: November 21, 2019, 03:17:00 PM »
I thought watching Tulsi go back and forth with Harris was the highlight, and the reason I want her to be in all of the debates. As Andrew O'Hehir at Salon put it:
Quote
Gabbard v. Harris serves as a political Rorschach test of sorts: Who you think “won” their exchange is largely a function of where you fall on the spectrum that goes from #StillWithHer to #FreeJulianAssange

Overall it was a fairly benign debate. The top tier candidates weren't involved in many clashes with each other to distinguish themselves or cause much movement in the polls. Of the lower tier candidates, I think Steyer has the best chance of getting a boost.

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #776 on: November 21, 2019, 04:48:42 PM »
The ones who watched the debate, i have a question.

Without rewatching, was there a point, where you thought, "boi, that's a good argument, never saw it this way". Or in general, have you changed your mind on something?

If so, what was it, and why did you find it to be convincing? Who brought it up?
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sedziobs

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #777 on: November 21, 2019, 05:00:50 PM »
I didn't know Buttigieg had floated sending troops to Mexico to fight drug cartels. Gabbard brought that up.

I also didn't know the US and Papua New Guinea are the only countries without paid family leave, as Yang pointed out.

I'll look into both of those myself after watching the debate.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #778 on: November 21, 2019, 07:48:42 PM »
Cool, Sedziobs! :)

Thanks for your answer.
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #779 on: November 21, 2019, 10:00:43 PM »
Bernie Sanders Leading Nationally - New Poll 2020 Democratic Primary

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #780 on: November 21, 2019, 11:54:47 PM »
Hey, if someone like Trump (first timer, no political or military background) could do it in 2016, Bernie could do it in 2020.
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #781 on: November 22, 2019, 05:09:43 AM »
I didn't know Buttigieg had floated sending troops to Mexico to fight drug cartels. Gabbard brought that up.

I also didn't know the US and Papua New Guinea are the only countries without paid family leave, as Yang pointed out.

I'll look into both of those myself after watching the debate.


I hadn't been aware of it until I moved back to Canada, and at first thought it was something that big businesses were providing under union pressure. I've noticed that it makes a huge difference to young couples finances and I can't imagine that the kids don't reap huge benefits.


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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #782 on: November 22, 2019, 01:35:02 PM »
Emerson has consistently had Sanders 10 percentage points higher than all the other polls.  Hence, I believe that this is an outlier.  But, who knows?

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #783 on: November 22, 2019, 04:25:17 PM »
IDK, Kat. Given all the other variables (i.e. donations, grassroots support, independent media support, panic on the corporate Democrats side, etc) i come to the conclusion that Emerson is more likely to be not rigged. ;)
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #784 on: November 22, 2019, 05:09:06 PM »
I think it's worth repeating my thoughts on this.
I wonder if "quality polls" will become less relevant. Monmouth polls (which 538 rates A+) are done exclusively by phone, with the majority being landline. That will obviously under-represent younger demographics, who generally do not answer unknown callers on their cellphones. I don't know anyone under 40 with a landline.

In Monmouth's most recent New Hampshire poll, only 29% of respondents were under 50, and only 12% were under 35. Those percentages may have roughly correlated with actual voter turnout in past elections, but the under 50 vote was the majority in the 2018 midterms. The truth is probably somewhere between the "quality" approved DNC list and online polling like Change Research. If so, it's a shame that the DNC process is discounting younger generations in its rather un-democratic selection process.



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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #785 on: November 22, 2019, 05:28:46 PM »
Sedziobs, you have no idea how badly i want you to be right on this.

All those right-wingers, bigots, racists, and status quo capitalists will show up in 2020. Their dream came true and they will not let it go so easily. Only a very strong voter turnout on the sane side of the equation will be able to stop Trump.

And for the young folks, Bernie is the one candidate! Time for the older folks to unite behind him.
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #786 on: November 22, 2019, 06:32:41 PM »
IDK, Kat. Given all the other variables (i.e. donations, grassroots support, independent media support, panic on the corporate Democrats side, etc) i come to the conclusion that Emerson is more likely to be not rigged. ;)

Rigged or not, the issues is predictive accuracy.  On the eve of the 2106 election, Emerson predicted that Clinton would win the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, while Trump would take only Iowa and Ohio. 

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2016/11/07/emerson-college-polling-predicts-clinton-wins-by-landslide-n2242543

Emerson also predicted that the Democrats would win control of the Senate, flipping seats in Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  They got one out of four correct.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #787 on: November 22, 2019, 06:56:22 PM »
Rigged or not, the issues is predictive accuracy.

Wait, it's either accurate or rigged. I don't know if i understand 'predictive accuracy' correctly, but this would imply only trends are visible anyway.


Quote
2106 election

;)
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #788 on: November 22, 2019, 07:13:07 PM »
Rigged or not, the issues is predictive accuracy.

Wait, it's either accurate or rigged. I don't know if i understand 'predictive accuracy' correctly, but this would imply only trends are visible anyway.


Quote
2106 election

;)

Rigged or not, a poll could give accurate results - strictly by chance.  "Predictive accuracy" is how well their predictions correlate with actual results.  Predicting the outcome of an election in which over a hundred million votes are cast, based on a survey of only 1000 or so seems rather daunting to start.  But that is what most pollsters use.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #789 on: November 22, 2019, 07:42:33 PM »
I keep hearing 'rigged or not' as if it wasn't a difference.

'Electability' is a measure stupid people look for when they ask themselves whom they should vote for. The one pimped up in the polls will, therefore, get more votes.

It's rather a self-fulfilling prophecy than a prediction IMHO.

In 2016 it backfired. Too many Democratic voters where so damn sure this dimwit wouldn't win the election and because of that didn't show up at the voting booth.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #790 on: November 22, 2019, 09:20:29 PM »
I keep hearing 'rigged or not' as if it wasn't a difference.


In 2016 it backfired.  Too many Democratic voters where so damn sure this dimwit wouldn't win the election and because of that didn't show up at the voting booth.

Except that it isn’t true.  Nationally, the vote total in 2016 was roughly 6% higher than in 2012.  It was 9% higher in battleground states.  Over 60% of registered voters turned out, compared to 58.6% in 2012.  Clinton did not lose because voters stayed home.  She lost because voters liked her less than Trump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/324206-new-report-finds-that-voter-turnout-in-2016-topped-2012%3famp

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #791 on: November 22, 2019, 09:23:38 PM »
Slight problem with that thesis--millions more voted for Clinton than for Trump.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #792 on: November 22, 2019, 09:46:07 PM »
IDK, Kat. Given all the other variables (i.e. donations, grassroots support, independent media support, panic on the corporate Democrats side, etc) i come to the conclusion that Emerson is more likely to be not rigged. ;)

Rigged or not, the issues is predictive accuracy.  On the eve of the 2106 election, Emerson predicted that Clinton would win the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, while Trump would take only Iowa and Ohio. 

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2016/11/07/emerson-college-polling-predicts-clinton-wins-by-landslide-n2242543

Emerson also predicted that the Democrats would win control of the Senate, flipping seats in Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  They got one out of four correct.
Well, KK, considering they predicted the election 90 years early, one out of four ain't bad!  :D
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #793 on: November 22, 2019, 10:04:13 PM »
IDK, Kat. Given all the other variables (i.e. donations, grassroots support, independent media support, panic on the corporate Democrats side, etc) i come to the conclusion that Emerson is more likely to be not rigged. ;)

Rigged or not, the issues is predictive accuracy.  On the eve of the 2106 election, Emerson predicted that Clinton would win the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, while Trump would take only Iowa and Ohio. 

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2016/11/07/emerson-college-polling-predicts-clinton-wins-by-landslide-n2242543

Emerson also predicted that the Democrats would win control of the Senate, flipping seats in Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  They got one out of four correct.
Well, KK, considering they predicted the election 90 years early, one out of four ain't bad!  :D

lol. Must be the seals in Florida.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #794 on: November 23, 2019, 08:06:34 AM »
Over 60% of registered voters turned out, compared to 58.6% in 2012.

How does this break down to dems/reps? If you state the absolute percentage you kinda prove my point.
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #795 on: November 23, 2019, 08:09:00 AM »
Slight problem with that thesis--millions more voted for Clinton than for Trump.

It's a math problem, not a problem with my thesis.

You would have to break that down to electoral college levels.
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #796 on: November 23, 2019, 01:48:22 PM »
Over 60% of registered voters turned out, compared to 58.6% in 2012.

How does this break down to dems/reps? If you state the absolute percentage you kinda prove my point.

It is more than just Dems/reps as it ignores the larger, non-affiliates electorate.  If you a detailed composition of changes between 2012 and 2016 read the following:

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/

Clinton experienced a decrease in black votes and non-college educated whites.  In the former case, it was largely due to lower turnout (not surprising), by the latter was due to higher turnout and changing preferences.

The NY Times found similar results.  Additionally, the youth vote increased substantially, but did not vote Democratic to the same extent as in the past.  The Democrats did improve on their rather poor 2014 showing, but not by enough to carry the presidency in 2015.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.amp.html

Turnout will likely be higher again in 2020, but the election will be decided by which candidate can resonate best with the electorate.  The Dems have a better chance this time, with better candidates.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #797 on: November 23, 2019, 02:21:30 PM »
I remember a poll just before the 2016 election that gave Hillary a 99.5% chance of a win.
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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #798 on: November 23, 2019, 04:38:25 PM »
I remember a poll just before the 2016 election that gave Hillary a 99.5% chance of a win.

I believe that was Nate Silver, who also gave the Democrats a 70% chance of winning the Senate.

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #799 on: November 24, 2019, 12:44:26 AM »
Polls don't make predictions, models do. Nate Silver's model gave Clinton less than a 70% chance in November 2016, and gave Democrats only a 19% chance of winning the Senate in 2018. So you must be thinking of someone else, Klondike Kat.

Quote
Just last week, Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning. But as of Thursday morning, her odds have fallen down to 66.9 percent — suggesting that while Donald Trump is still the underdog, there’s a one-in-three shot he’ll end up the next president. Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
...
So how likely is it that there will be either a polling error (either nationwide or in enough states to tip the scale) or a last-minute swing the polls simply don’t have time to pick up on (again, either nationwide or in enough key states)? All the other models are essentially telling us that given the data we have, these scenarios are very unlikely to transpire — but Silver’s is warning not to count it out.
...
Other models are leaning more towards assuming that with so much polling in so many states showing Clinton narrowly ahead, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll all be wrong in the same way. But Silver’s model thinks a “miss” in national polling would likely be reflected in swing states too — even states that have been considered part of Clinton’s “firewall” up until now
vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/