Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?

[b_lumenkraft]

Thank you Bbr for your honest answer.

I can't help to drop some sarcasm here: Why cure cancer? Isn't that an insult on anyone who ever died of cancer?

But on a serious note. You don't understand the free part in Bernie's HC proposal. It is free of charge at the point of service meaning no copays, no deductibles, no hidden costs. You chose the doc and that's it. Of course, you pay for the insurance. Only, that the insurance is one big pool in this case. Anyone knowing just a little bit about insurances will tell you, the bigger the pool the better risk assessment wise. This is how it's done everywhere on the planet and it would also work in the US. You will end up paying half (or even less). You would pay it in taxes, not to a private insurance company.

So what's so 'big government' in pooling risks and collecting money? That's a task the government does all the time in any aspect of life even in the US and even accepted in conservative circles. Why is it so bad in this special case?

[b_lumenkraft]

Why Bernie Sanders is Democrats' Best 2020 Candidate to Defeat Donald Trump

[bbr2314]

Otherwise I am staunchly against "big government" as I find that government's main purpose is to perpetuate and expand its own existence rather than to benefit the people which it purportedly serves.

This is a deeply entrenched social meme in American culture. It's quite unique in the civilised world and has been for centuries. Because it is deeply believed in and accepted by such a large percentage of society it's generally accepted as such an obvious truth as to be undeniable to 'anyone with a brain'.

As such anyone who might quote a few facts or history or relevant comparisons will be subsequently dispatched as a moron without a brain. Thus it's persisted for centuries and has not changed.

The Americans learn this default "socially engrained meme" from the moment they are sitting on their mothers knee for it to be reconditioned into them at church, at school, at work, on the TV and it's reinforced throughout their life. Subsequently to poison their own children's minds and successfully dumb them down too.

It's a myth and it's a social, cultural lie a majority still believe is true. Many are still living in the 1770s where any moment now a Red Coat will be bursting through your homestead door looking for insurgency materials against the King.

It's one of the most amazing but fraudulent social constructs/beliefs in the whole world. It's as persistent a myth as young earth creationism, the denial of evolution, and the denial of climate science is in America ... being the global the capital of such beliefs btw.

And the people who believe in such tripe are not going away anytime soon. They are highly motivated voters too. Their whole world views and their personal IDENTITY depends on the truth of these myths, these lies.

OK great, keep losing elections, it is what your people do best!

And you can go and move to China if you are so fond of truly big government.

Also: I was raised in an exceedingly liberal environment that included substantial childhood time abroad. I am not a "meat and potatoes" American, and as I mentioned, I do indeed support healthcare for all, and I voted for Obama in 2008. If you think making personal attacks against anyone who isn't where Sanders is on the political spectrum is an effective strategy for winning people over... again, it explains why you keep losing. 

[bbr2314]

I do indeed support healthcare for all

Except you do not.

Nor do you support any kind of Medicare for All / Universal coverage arrangement in America (as it exists in every other civilised nation be they wealthy or not).

This is abundantly clear and obvious. You're not alone either.

Technically you are correct, I support healthcare for everyone with a BMI under 30, maybe that doesn't include you -- I wouldn't be surprised. Exercise creates endorphins and endorphins make you happy, and you clearly are not happy.

PS, your "dream" society where everyone can be morbidly obese and everything is bought and paid for by the government already exists, it was depicted wonderfully in the Pixar film "Wall-E"!

Unfortunately it came with the side effect of an Earth that was almost entirely devoid of any life whatsoever, so, you know, there's that little trade-off to be had.

[Neven]

bbr, do you have any idea how much profits those stupid, selfish obese people are generating? If you want to solve that (instead of the euthanasia you are proposing), you need to change the entire system, and to change a system, you need a government.

If the alternative to Big Government is Big Corporation, you're not going to solve anything. In fact, something worse happens: Big Government gets usurped by Big Corporation, which is what has happened in the US. That's a form of fascism. Like Lurk says, with such texts, you are only displaying your conditioned ignorance.

Don't expect change from the GOP or Corporate Democrats, they are all servants of concentrated wealth. For now, only Bernie Sanders is pointing in the right direction, but I agree it will take an entire movement to actually get there, and make sure the talk is turned into walk. I don't care what label people want to attach to that. I only care about solving AGW (and all the other global problems).

The only way forward is via the Democratic Party, but only if the progressive wing prevails.

[b_lumenkraft]

Person 1: I really want healthcare for all but not for the ones eating meat.
Person 2: I really want healthcare for all but not for the obese.
Person 3: I really want healthcare for all but not for the ones doing bungee jumping.
Person 4: I really want healthcare for all but not for the brown and black people.
etc
etc
etc

Bbr, do you understand why this can't be the way how you make laws?

It is stunning to me that a guy who's obviously capable of understanding very complex systems fails so hard in understanding basic politics.

[SteveMDFP]

An initial consultation with a GP doctor will cost in the range of $100 – $200 in the USA.

OK, so how much will Medicare for All pay those Doctors for a 10-15 minute consultation?

$200? No. $150? No. $100? Probably no. Maybe more like $75 if they are lucky.

How many GP Doctors in the USA are going to accept $75 or less? How many clinics and hospitals will accept that fee payment?
 
The Medicare schedule in Australia NZ will pay the doctor about $39 = $30 USD

Where are all the details of the medical services price schedules that a Medicare for All system will pay out to Doctors, specialists, hospitals and drug companies?

How many have agreed to accept those fee payments for services? Oh that'd be none.

Apparently some democrats incl Bernie have said Private Health insurance will no longer be required. Really? How so. My Sinai Hospital suddenly going to become a Public Hospital is it?  Charging public rates?

Let's say you broke your ankle really badly and show up at a US hospital late in the afternoon on a Friday. How will the new USA Medicare for All system handle that?

(How does the present system work even more interesting to answer that?) 

In Australia this is what typically happens -  turn up at a public hospital funded by Medicare and the State Govt, seen by a nurse within 3 minutes, seen by the admissions doctor within 15 minutes, admitted to hospital within 30 minutes in the emergency dept., paperwork and all, within 1 hour later all major medical tests done incl X-rays and safety checks for surgery, and seen by the anaesthetists on duty for planning purposes. Stay overnight, in surgery full anaesthetic by noon the next day, ankle fixed, recovery, with ongoing checks overnight. Leave hospital the next day after surgery with a pouch of medicine and out patient follow-up care all arranged.... and a doctors medical certificate for work purposes.

Total Cost to Patient = Zero.
Follow-up care including one's own local GP and Physcial Therapy costs = Zero. Zip Nada!

Personal cost to patient annually is their normal Taxes plus a 1.25% Medicare Levy of their Gross Income over and above $22,000 per annum.

Bernie, the rest of Democrats and the people calling for Medicare for All in the USA don't have a hope in hell.

None!

Totally agree.  Cost controls of some form are needed most. Without that, no system can work within a sane budget.    At most steps in health care, costs are created to shift money to shareholders.  The insurers are *not* the primary problem.  Still plenty of non-profit insurers around (many BC/BS affiliates remain non-profit).  Non-profit insurers are *unable* to offer coverage at reasonable costs.

Drug companies and device makers top the list of exorbitant costs.  Without a system to force them to negotiate a global price in the US market (or else sell nothing to anyone), they'll continue to make health care unaffordable, regardless of whose pocket the money comes from.

A politician could win popular votes here, but it would be risky.  These interests have powerful lobbies and huge PR budgets.  They almost derailed the modest reforms of the Affordable Care Act.  Still, Americans are totally fed up with healthcare that might be otherwise available, but results in many being unable to take needed medication.

[Klondike Kat]

By most accounts, medical costs started soaring, once insurance companies became intermediaries.  Costs were lower when it was just between the doctor and the patient.  Once people figured out that they could pay one annual fee, and then receive unlimited care, Pandora's box was opened.  The first step to counter rising costs was to institute a deductible.  This stemmed the rise somewhat, as people were reluctant to seek care, until the deductible was met.  But once that was met, no holds barred.  People tended to lump medical care into one calendar year to take advantage of the system.  Will a government provided system work better?  You knows?  The track record of the government providing improved services at reduced costs is not encouraging.

[Neven]

The track record of the government providing improved services at reduced costs is not encouraging.

Isn't this one of the conditioned myths surrounding Medicare for all? It sounds a bit like Corporate Democrat Dianne Feinstein: : If this means a government take-over of healthcare, I'm not there yet.

The government isn't providing any services. It's not taking over hospitals, etc.

The richest country in the history of the world, but a large percentage of the population either doesn't have access to health care, or goes bankrupt when they get ill. 

[Klondike Kat]

There's nothing personal in the above. I know of one example story of a man in arkansas who broke his ankle. He had a car accident, totalled his car and had to walk / drag himself home. Had no health care plan and a several months later he died from his injuries. Died from a broken ankle. Ain't that sweet?

Rather than address such realities in a mature grown up rational and factual manner instead what comes for "discussions" about US lack of Health Care are vague generalities. Mythical (ie fake) generalities. Pseudo discussions about the efficacy of big bad "Government" even though in the USA they claim the Govt is of, for and BY the people. Yeah right. Sure it is when you're "dreaming".

People argue about lies. People argue about their false beliefs fed to them by politicians and the media and their parents and their dishonest biased and very often untrue history books. It's par for the course. Look what came from Clinton's great project in 93, fell flat on it's face, because both sides of US politics are a bunch of incompetents and fools.... except when it comes to serving their donor class of class, then they are brilliant actors.

It's par for the course of course. Be it military adventurism, regime change everywhere but inside the USA, manipulative geopolitics, corrupt bs trade deals, inaction on climate change, bailing out of the Paris agreement, oil and gas fracking that will ultimately destroy the land for generations.

Hey look over there we have to save those poor Venezuelans, it's a humanitarian disaster and they are run by a socialist dictator who is evil as sin. America is a joke and has been for decades!

There's no point in arguing with drunks, addicts, religious fanatics, or fools. Let them have it. Let them do what they want. And let them believe what they want and reap their just rewards, is what I say. I am not here to "save America" or help them see the light of reason and common sense, oh no, I am simply speak to alert those outside it to stop worrying about it or believing one day it might change.

No, you're on your own, your nation and the rest are on your own so you may as well start acting like it and trying to do whatever positive thing you can about AGW/CC (eg Extinction Rebellion) and juts forget about the USA entirely.  You will never be able to satisfy their delusional beliefs about reality. Don't even try. Health Care is a lightening rod to see how crazy and disconnected from reality they truly are.

Unfortunately, there is much truth in this post.  Proponents of any action tend to bring up isolated, emotional cases to substantiate their position.  Any discussion of benefits to the whole seem to get lost in examples of the few that will be harmed.  Tackling something as large and personal as national medicare care will be a monumental nightmare.  Gallup conducted a poll recently, and generated some interesting results:


https://news.gallup.com/poll/245195/americans-rate-healthcare-quite-positively.aspx

While Americans have an unfavorable view about general healthcare and costs in the country, they have a very favorable view about their own.  This dichotomy will likely undermine any changes in the near future.

[sidd]

Biden in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47601125

Hassan at Intercept dont like him:

Hassan:

"Is the party bent on nominating Hillary 2.0?"

"Iraq War supporter? Check ... will be the only candidate — out of up to 20 Democrats running for the nomination — to have voted for the Iraq War ... Friend of Wall Street? Check ... Champion of mass incarceration? Check ...Establishment-friendly? Check ...  Gaffe-prone? Check ... Loser? Check ... "

"there is no question for the Democrats in 2020 to which Biden is the answer. Have they really learned no lessons from three years ago?"

https://theintercept.com/2019/03/21/joe-biden-2020-hillary-clinton/

Fang follows the money:

"committee includes Kenneth Jarin, a lobbyist with Ballard Spahr who is registered to work on behalf of toll road operator Conduent and several health care interests. "

" Alan Kessler, another lobbyist who works with the firm Duane Morris. Kessler is registered to lobby in Pennsylvania for American Airlines and the global information tech firm Unisys Corporation, among other clients."

"Michael Nutter, another host of the event, is a senior adviser to the local lobbying operation at Dentons, a law firm with a vast government affairs operation. Nutter is also on the board of Conduent."

"Daniel Hilferty, a member of the Biden host committee, is the chief executive officer of Independence Blue Cross. He is on the board of America’s Health Insurance Plans, the trade association working to defeat the progressive push for Medicare for All."

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/25/joe-biden-presidential-bid-lobbyists-fundraiser/

sidd

[sidd]

Marcetic at Jacobin on Biden: Biden is a disaster

Solomon at truthdig: Biden is a fraud

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/04/joe-biden-2020-presidential-campaign-record

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/joe-biden-is-a-phony-plain-and-simple/

Gee, don't hold back, tell us how you really feel, guys.

sidd

[Klondike Kat]

Lurk,
I think you nailed it on the healthcare.  The buzzwords May continue to be a campaign slogan, but that is probably all.

[sidd]

Ford at blackagendareport argues that Sanders will be stopped:

"it’s simply the job of corporate Democrats to defend corporate interests"

"the Democratic Party has become the ruling class’s most important political instrument"

"will thwart his campaign – by any means necessary."

https://blackagendareport.com/stop-sanders-year-corporate-long-knives

sidd

[Klondike Kat]

Ford at blackagendareport argues that Sanders will be stopped:

"it’s simply the job of corporate Democrats to defend corporate interests"

"the Democratic Party has become the ruling class’s most important political instrument"

"will thwart his campaign – by any means necessary."

https://blackagendareport.com/stop-sanders-year-corporate-long-knives

sidd

That would not surprise me.  The Democratic bosses are less accepting of outsiders than the Republicans.  We saw how much they tried to derail Trump in 2016.  I suspect they will back Biden heavily to prevent such a scenario.

[Sciguy]

Beto O'Rourke calls for $5 trillion investment in clean energy over 10 years.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;topic=2200.150;last_msg=197096

Democratic presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke labeled climate change "the greatest threat we face" as he called for $5 trillion to be spent over the next decade with the goal of neutralizing carbon emissions in the U.S. by midcentury.

The former Texas congressman's plan is among the most detailed of the crowded Democratic 2020 field, but it does not define how it would achieve dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Its goal for getting the U.S. to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 also aligns with the ambitious aims of the "Green New Deal," a lofty set of climate priorities advanced by activists and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.).

O'Rourke said he wanted the government and private sector to spend $5 trillion over 10 years on clean energy infrastructure, framing the investment as a way to limit significant future economic and health costs caused by climate change while addressing racial, generational and economic inequities.

[Tor Bejnar]

Interesting: 
Cost for the United States to fight World War II:  $288 billion
Inflation adjusted for today:  $5.1 trillion

But these days we are in an existential challenge!

[b_lumenkraft]

The wars after 9.11 where 7,1 trillion iirc.

[b_lumenkraft]

Recently CNN was caught manipulating polls (ignored all age groups below 50y).

Now it's MSNBC.

Liberal media anyone?

Cable news is propaganda and entertainment, not news!

[sidd]

Nolan goes full Taibbi on Biden at the guardian: "This is how it works."

"His constituency is real. It is not illuminating to think of them just as centrists ... It’s better to think of them as zombies ... It is not so much that they do not, deep down, harbor a vague wish for a better world; it is that, like stray dogs dining exclusively on garbage, life has taught them that this is the best that they will ever get."

"This is how Democratic politics has been done in Joe Biden’s lifetime. This is how it works."

"For the people who matter, Joe Biden is doing just what he is expected to do."

"the credit card industry’s man in Washington ... voted against gay marriage when it was unpopular ... changing his mind years later, when it was popular ... played a key role in launching America’s war on drugs and mass incarceration epidemic ... voted in favor of the Iraq war "

"Later, he apologized."

"He is well on his way to uniting everyone who likes to watch the world burn."

"This is a perfect referendum on where our country is now."

"I fully expect Joe Biden to step out of his campaign headquarters and fall directly into the huge pit that has opened up as America moved tectonically to the left. "

"here we are: incredibly divided, hopelessly unequal, justifiably sick of our broken institutions, and very, very angry."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/30/clinton-era-politics-joe-biden

sidd

[Klondike Kat]

At this point, it is all about Biden.  He will win or lose on his own.  Unless he engages in some form of campaign self-sabotage, he will be running against Trump in 2020.  His support is strong, wide, and deep.  That will be hard to beat.

[sidd]

Trump on Biden, Sanders: Biden not leftist enuf

"I think Biden would be easier "

"One thing I do have in common with Bernie is trade"

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/05/02/donald-trump-joe-biden-not-radical-left-enough-win-democrats/

sidd

[Klondike Kat]

Trump on Biden, Sanders: Biden not leftist enuf

"I think Biden would be easier "

"One thing I do have in common with Bernie is trade"

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/05/02/donald-trump-joe-biden-not-radical-left-enough-win-democrats/

sidd

i think Trump is afraid of Biden, and is just saying this to get Democratic voters to choose any of the other candidates.  I believe he secretly wants to run against one of the more radical candidates, who he feels he can beat easily.  Just my opinion.

[b_lumenkraft]

Data-Guy Nate Silver Smears Bernie Sanders Without Data

[sidd]

Tracey argues that Biden is set: nomination is his to lose

" ... his rivals will have to challenge the Obama/Biden legacy in order to dispel Biden’s mystique. And that will be an exceptionally difficult line to walk; attacking Obama risks alienating a huge portion of the primary electorate who aren’t interested in rehashing the Libya intervention or the Affordable Care Act. They just want Trump out. And into that void steps trusty old Joe."

https://spectator.us/joe-biden-2020-blow/

Halle extends the argument:

"Biden is not required to win a majority of delegates in order to receive the nomination. All that is necessary is to keep Sanders from winning a majority. This will lead to a brokered convention where a decision will be made by party insiders whose hatred for Sanders is a matter of record."

"Biden’s ally in this scenario is an unlikely one namely Elizabeth Warren. While few of her supporters recognize it, Warren has the potential to draw enough support away from Sanders in key progressive states denying Sanders the margin he will need for a first ballot victory. "

https://johnhalle.com/obamamania-and-its-legacy-why-biden-leads/

I think they both overestimate the Obama effect in favor of Biden. At this stage, my feeling is that Warren will bow out and endorse Sanders if she sees Biden taking it in a brokered election.

Unfortunately, I fear the Democratic powers that be would rather lose with Biden than win with Sanders.

sidd

[b_lumenkraft]

Unfortunately, I fear the Democratic powers that be would rather lose with Biden than win with Sanders.

... because they are paid by the same people than the other party. The donors dictate politics, no matter which party is elected. Only a candidate not taking corporate money can break this system.

[Klondike Kat]

Unfortunately, I fear the Democratic powers that be would rather lose with Biden than win with Sanders.

... because they are paid by the same people than the other party. The donors dictate politics, no matter which party is elected. Only a candidate not taking corporate money can break this system.

I disagree.  I feel that the Democratic powers believe they can win with Biden, and not Sanders.  Tying him to Obama will be a big plus in his campaign, and gives him a huge advantage over the other candidates.  At this point, I feel that there will not be a brokered convention, and he will win the required number of delegates in advance.  The 15% threshold for allocating delegates during the primary is likely to diminish the delegate count for the contenders.

[b_lumenkraft]

I disagree.  I feel that the Democratic powers believe they can win with Biden, and not Sanders.  Tying him to Obama will be a big plus in his campaign, and gives him a huge advantage over the other candidates.  At this point, I feel that there will not be a brokered convention, and he will win the required number of delegates in advance.  The 15% threshold for allocating delegates during the primary is likely to diminish the delegate count for the contenders.

They favour Biden because with him the US maintains the status quo should he become elected. Just like Trump would never oppose the status quo, since this would end his presidency.


 

[b_lumenkraft]

It's time to end all subsidies for oil and gas companies.

These companies lied to the American people about the very existence of climate change. They committed one of the greatest frauds in our history.

When we are in White House we'll rapidly transition to renewable energy.

Link >> https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1128098882532118528

[sidd]

On the road with Bernie: Taibbi looks at the Sanders campaign

"candidate Trump in 2015-16 often borrowed from Sanders-esque critiques about corporate power; he even regularly made it a point to praise Sanders in speeches."

"But Sanders no longer has the breeze of low expectations at his back. What was merely a lack of institutional support in 2016 has transformed into active institutional opposition. Among the donor class, his own party’s leadership and in most of the commercial media, he is roundly despised. He is blamed often for Clinton’s 2016 loss, and denounced as a dangerous socialist, a narcissist obstructionist, even the Kremlin’s candidate. (Multiple Washington Post columns have claimed Vladimir Putin is pushing the Sanders campaign in order to help “elect Trump.”) "

" He and many members of his staff also believe that on issues like climate change, the country can’t afford to wait out either another Republican or corporate-backed Democratic presidency. Ultimately, the calculation was no more message campaigns. Sanders not only has to run, he has to run and win."

"Of course, to win, he’d essentially have to overturn the whole political system — two parties, big-dollar donors and the media. "

" we’re not just taking on Donald Trump. We’re also taking on the corporate establishment, the Democratic establishment, the drug companies, the health insurance companies, Wall Street. . . ."

"The Sanders campaign’s point of view is that Bernie’s voters are the party’s authentic base, or at least were, once upon a time. "

"They believe Democrats don’t have a problem with working-class white voters, but a problem with working-class voters of all races and backgrounds — lost to the party over the years due to frustrations with free-trade policies, a 50-year decline in real wages, disillusionment with bipartisan-supported foreign wars and their costs for military families, failure to regulate an increasingly exploitative financial-services sector, exploding incarceration rates "

"it is about using the vote to forcibly detach the Democratic Party from corporate donors, to return it to its roots as a labor-dominated organization."

" an all-labor, no-corporate-money run is the closest thing to guerrilla politics you’ll see on an American campaign trail. It couldn’t actually work, could it?"

" Biden is exactly the sort of Democrat that for decades has traded working-class votes for employer-class donations. "

"Biden’s schizoid approach is a perfect expression of the counterintuitive electoral dynamic between unions and Democrats. "

"I think there are a few people who watched who are working two to three jobs, who have nothing set aside for retirement, and they’re wondering: Who cares about us? "

"both the strength and weakness of Sanders is his relentless sameness."

"What Turner says about Sanders never being bought off is true, if only because if the senator tried to sell out, he wouldn’t know where to start and would suck at it. He’s also never tried shutting up, and probably couldn’t do that, either."

"For Sanders to win, all his voters have to do is overthrow basically the entire political system, which would be ridiculous except that all the other options may be worse: "

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/bernie-sanders-campaign-trail-taibbi-833386/

sidd

[seancoulter]

From my point of view, Joe Biden is the best choice not only for Democrats but for the entire country. Only he can win the election over D. Trump. Not Bernie Sanders with his socialist principles. And not some Beto O'Rourke. 

[b_lumenkraft]

Sean, why do you think that? Is Biden better on the issues? If so which ones and why? Or because of his name recognition? Or something else?

[b_lumenkraft]

Did Joe Biden Take A Blow To The Head?

[b_lumenkraft]

4 More Democratic Primary Polls! May 2019 - Democratic Presidential Candidates 2020

[b_lumenkraft]

Let's talk about the candidate who can beat Trump...

[sidd]

Another NYC mayor jumps on the bus. Gonna need a double decker.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-new-york-city-mayor-bill-deblasio-2020-president-20190516-story.html

sidd

[b_lumenkraft]

Biden Assures Rich Donors He'll Protect Them From Bernie's Taxes

[b_lumenkraft]

Is Biden Even More Out Of Touch Than Hillary Clinton? ft. Emma Vigeland

[Sciguy]

The Democratic Party has new rules for caucuses and primaries this year that have lead to many states switching from caucuses to primaries.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-will-democrats-move-away-from-caucuses-affect-the-2020-race/

But party reforms have also led to the increased use of primaries in 2020. Specifically, the DNC delegate-selection rules now say that state parties should try to use government-run primaries if they are available. And if a state party doesn’t have that option, party-run events (including caucuses) are required to allow absentee or early voting and same-day voter registration, plus implement procedures for recounts. For a state such as Washington, which was by far the largest caucus state by population in 2016, it was much easier to meet these rule changes by using Washington’s government-run primary than by adapting its caucuses.

Of course, increased voter turnout could change which candidates benefit — or suffer — from that voting system. “The conventional wisdom is that caucuses favor more ideological candidates,” said Kamarck. Understandably, then, of the 2020 Democratic presidential field, Sanders is the candidate who’s often named as most likely to take a hit. In 2016, he won all 10 caucus states that are moving to some type of primary in 2020, though the field was far smaller in 2016, when most caucuses were head-to-head matchups between Sanders and Clinton. That said, Sanders probably owes some of his success in the caucuses to the fact that these low-turnout events tend to reward candidates who have strongly ideological and deeply committed supporters, and the move toward more primaries could erode that advantage.

Bernie Sanders won the caucus in Washington in 2016, 72% to 18%.  There was also a primary that didn't count, and Hillary Clinton won that 52% to 48%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington_Democratic_caucuses

[Sciguy]

Let's talk about the candidate who can beat Trump...

...

Here's another way of looking at the "electability issue".

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/05/12/what-if-electability-is-more-about-authenticity-than-moderation/

There is a big disconnect in Democratic politics right now. On the one hand, a majority of Democratic primary voters are backing Biden at this early date—not because he lines up with their policy preferences, but because they believe he’s the safest and most electable choice.

Meanwhile, we continue to see stories of Trump voters gravitating not toward centrist candidates like Biden, but toward more progressive politicians like Elizabeth Warren and even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Take this excerpt from Politico, for instance:

"It was a startling spectacle in the heart of Trump country: At least a dozen supporters of the president — some wearing MAGA stickers — nodding their heads, at times even clapping, for liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren.

The sighting alone of a Democratic presidential candidate in this town of fewer than 400 people — in a county where more than four in five voters cast their ballot for Trump in 2016 — was unusual. Warren’s team was apprehensive about how she’d be received."

One hallmark of these types of voters is that they strongly distrust politicians and the political system in general, believing that all politicians tell people whatever they want to hear while actually doing the bidding of special interest groups. They believe, not entirely incorrectly, that the whole system is corrupt. They despise partisan bickering—not because they believe that Congress needs more “moderate” peacemakers, but because they believe the bickering is an artifact of corrupt interest groups setting their lackeys against one another. When they say they want less partisanship, that doesn’t mean they want politicians from both sides of the aisle to come together to enact moderate policies. Many of these voters, after all, are not that informed about policy nuances or where the parties stand: some don’t even know which political party is the stronger defender of Medicare! Rather, they want politicians who they view as authentically placing the interests of real people ahead of corrupt special interests. The policy specifics are secondary to that. One of the great ironies of the 2016 election is that the famously corrupt and probably financially compromised Donald Trump somehow convinced a large number of people that he was so rich that he couldn’t be bought, and knew where all the loopholes were.

This is where candidates like Warren and Ocasio-Cortez can make a serious dent in Trump’s base. By being authentically themselves and speaking in plain English about the problems facing Americans, by talking clearly about the ways the wealthy warp the political system and exposing their opponents as corrupted agents of special interest money, they have a better shot than most at peeling off what few persuadable cross-pressured voters remain in the electorate. They can also inspire non-voters who have given up on the political system to give it one more chance. They likely have a much better chance of doing so than nominating moderate politicians who carefully parse their words and speak only in the most carefully poll-tested language.

It may well be, in other words, that Democrats have been getting electability wrong for decades now, and that the biggest obstacle facing Democratic voters is their mistaken belief in a silent majority of voters more conservative than themselves. It may well be that the same candidates who appeal authentically to progressive emotional sensibilities will also appeal to the voters Democrats most need to persuade in the purple districts and states they need to win. At the same time, they might just be the ones to bring out people who otherwise wouldn’t vote at all.

[b_lumenkraft]

It may well be, in other words, that Democrats have been getting electability wrong for decades now,

Yep!

[b_lumenkraft]

The New York Times Exposed For Sabotaging Bernie Sanders 2020

[sidd]

I was torn between posting this on the media thread or this one. Behold all ye ladies, gentlemen and other gender persuasions a great example of the oldfashioned, yellow journalism hit piece. Markay at dailybeast:

"campaign ... underwritten by some of the nation’s leading Russophiles ... is one of her party’s more Russia-friendly voices ... financial support from prominent pro-Russian voices ... the nation’s leading intellectual apologist for Russian president ... have long worked to improve U.S.-Russia relations ... outspoken Putin supporter ... routinely promotes the Russian government line ... toe the Kremlin line ... attitude of a small set of the American left wing"

And throw in a bit of KKK as a garnish:

"former KKK leader, has heaped praise on her ... white supremacist, has tweeted favorably"

In fifty years or more, Markay might develop to get as good as say, Taibbi in his epic takedown of Friedman. But I doubt it.

I would link to the piece, but trust me, it isn't worth reading. Like I said, mebbe in fifty years, if markay is still around.

If you were wondering why it's on this thread, it's about Gabbard.

sidd

[Rich]

At this point, it looks like the race is going to whittle down to Biden vs. Sanders who are the two candidates who poll ahead of Trump head to head by the biggest margins.

Buttigieg had a nice moment, but he polls worst among the higher polling candidates vs Trump in a GE matchup and has almost no support among black voters.

Harris is a formidable candidate, but beating Trump is paramount and strength in States like PA, WI, MI don't seem to be her calling card.

Warren has been coming on impressively but she isn't even leading in her home state of MA. If she somehow pulls off a miracle and surpasses Sanders by Iowa, I'm pretty sure that Sanders would drop out and offer he his full throated support. I'm not sure that she would return the favor.

Whichever of Sanders or Warren prevails among progressives will gain the endorsement of AOC.

The endorsements of the candidates who drop out will be tricky.

Sanders and AOC represent the future of the party with dominant share among young voters. If a candidate endorses Biden, that's not going to position them well for future elections.

From all indications, Buttigieg is auditioning for a role in a Biden Administration and will endorse accordingly. His career mobility in Indiana state politics is limited.

What will Harris do? I'm guessing Biden or Bernie would offer VP or AG in return for an endorsement. If she wants to remain in the Senate, it would be good to note that CA is more progressive than the country as a whole.

Warren disappointed a lot of progressives by not endorsing Bernie in 2016. If she and Bernie and AOC are a tag team vs. Biden, they have a shot.

I see a lot of people worried about the crowded field and the possibility of a brokered convention. I think that's misplaced. The 15% viability threshold will thin the field very quickly. 

[b_lumenkraft]

That's a good analysis, Rich.

Let me add, IMHO voter turnout will win or lose this election. When the Democratic candidate is Biden, young voters and progressives will not vote at all. American lefties are sick and tired of voting for the lesser evil. They want a reasonable candidate for once. One, they can burn for, or else they will just not bother to show up on election day.

[ASILurker]

Middle of last year I still had some hope for a positive change in the US (eg an honest good  Dem President in 2020 with a real agenda) via a reinvigorated more ethic democratic party due to the positive influences of in and out of the Party that generally supported the ideas and IDEALS of the "do something about climate and the war mongering asap" Bernie AOC Tulsi Warren types and the like (not picking sides).

Then the 2018 election came and went, GND came and went, the Russiagate mueller report came and went and I've simply been "observing" it all from afar.   

Today on 2019-05-20 it's a lost cause. So go out on a limb and I'll call it now
- Donald Trump will win the 2020 General Election
- GOP will hold the Senate and
- GOP will win the House of Reps back (or miss by only a very small margin.) 

Who the Dem. Nominee is is irrelevant - makes no difference at all.  They've already lost.

[ASILurker]

No, no need to jump up in anger or jump off the bridge in despair. Because that will be a good thing (in hindsight) long term. Because the backlash, "the revolution", will also begin in 2020.

By the time the dust settles and 2030 comes around, everyone on Earth (even Americans) will be more firmly grounded in reality - the GOP and the Democratic Party will have both been consigned to the dustbin of history. And most if not all of Elon Musk's Teslas would have been stripped clean and/or melted down for scrap. The bonnet logo will be the only collector's item worth a dime.

Much like has just happened in the Ukraine the 2024 President elect will be someone more like a "Jerry Seinfeld" - and that "shift" will prove to be a very very good thing for America long term.
 
As the shampoo advert goes: "It won't happen overnight, but it will happen!"

[b_lumenkraft]

Let's imagine this for a minute, where the world moves on, and orange Mussolini gets 4 more years of destroying the American economy, agro-sector, trade relationships, allies, etc. A world that has moved on to mostly renewable energy and the US still in the fossil world, how will America catch up? The county is no more competitive. This means a downward spiral from there on.

In this scenario Lurk, the time runs out for the US and i can't see that as a positive thing.

[Klondike Kat]

That's a good analysis, Rich.

Let me add, IMHO voter turnout will win or lose this election. When the Democratic candidate is Biden, young voters and progressives will not vote at all. American lefties are sick and tired of voting for the lesser evil. They want a reasonable candidate for once. One, they can burn for, or else they will just not bother to show up on election day.

I will disagree.  I believe that the lefties will vote for Biden over Trump, instead of abstaining.  Similar to what the righties did in 2016 for Trump.  Biden will draw more of the middle-of-the-road vote than Sanders, and decrease Trump's total.  Trump is closer to these middle road voters than Sanders, which could present a large issue for the Democratic Party.  Hence, I feel that Biden has the better chance of winning in 2020.

[Rich]

I try to approach things scientifically.

If Biden and Sanders are both at or near double digit leads vs. Trump in WI, MI and PA, then I believe either one will knock him off in the GE.

Each of the supporters of Sanders and Biden will try to make the case that the other would lose a GE but I don't buy either. Lumenkraft has some validity in his comment that some young and poor voters won't vote for Biden but there are also people who don't like Sanders who won't show up for him. They balance each other out. 

Trump won't be able to run the same campaign in 2020 that he did in 2016. He said he would drain the swamp and instead has sold every decision to the highest bidder. America is slowly getting more savvy about climate change and the Yale Surveys have shown a double digit increase in acceptance of AGW. I'm not a big fan of Biden's, but I recognize that he doesn't inspire as many people to dislike him as Clinton did.

Beside my big obvious concern with climate change, the big systemic issue in America is inequality. The Gini coefficient is at an all-time high. The US is no longer a functional democracy. Congress legislates for the bug donors regardless of popular support. How else do we lose net neutrality which has 90% public support?

Trump won't by running against the establishment of both parties which both remain unpopular. He has governed as an establishment Republican and lost some cred.

I'm hoping that Sanders will win. I'd like to see the end of profiteering in health insurance and he's willing to stick a fork in the fossil fuel industry and military budget. If Biden wins and nothing significant is done to address inequality during his term, the country will become vulnerable to a more competent fascist than Trump.