Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?

[bbr2314]

I am less disturbed by their rhetoric than what is coming out of the left

WOW.

We have an openly racist president with the IQ of a 5yo and you are less disturbed by him than all this chant for MFA from the left.

while Democrats are interested in taking from other people

How dare they not giving all the taxes to the super-rich, eh?

You are ignoring that you will pay the bill. This deficit is also your deficit.

See, Bbr, this is why i can't take you seriously when it comes to politics. You just repeat the FoxNews bullshit you hear all day and don't use a single brain cell of yours to scrutinise the corporate propaganda. That's so pathetic.

I don't watch FOX News, I don't even have a television...

Also I do not think Trump is openly racist, it is a talking point blared by the fake news / liberal media that holds no basis in reality. Has he done some bad things? Yes.

Was he right about those four congresswomen? Also yes. Ilhan Omar is openly anti-semitic. AOC murdered 40,000 new jobs in NYC that would've had a median income of 100K a year. The other two I am less well versed on, but I don't think he is wrong that they should go back to their sh*thole countries if they hate it here so much. The solution is not to turn the US into another Somalia or Wherever-istan.

[blumenkraft]

I hope people reading this ^ know why Harris and Biden are his favourites.

Both are talking to people like him, our political opponents.

Thanks, Bbr, for making this point so clear.

[blumenkraft]

Ilhan Omar is openly anti-semitic and Trump is not a racist.

Welcome to bizarro America.

[bbr2314]

I hope people reading this ^ know why Harris and Biden are his favourites.

Both are talking to people like him, our political opponents.

Thanks, Bbr, for making this point so clear.

Because they are moderates...?

IDK what you are trying to prove or do, by committing to your insane ideology and demanding everyone else do the same (lest you castigate them as a FOX News-watching imbecile), you will just keep on losing... fine by me I guess!

[blumenkraft]

You are moderate, aren't you? Unaware this is the politics that destroy the planet, that kills people, that's racist and bigot.

IDK what you are trying to prove or do

I know you don't know.

[bbr2314]

You are moderate, aren't you? Unaware this is the politics that destroy the planet, that kills people, that's racist and bigot.

IDK what you are trying to prove or do

I know you don't know.

Are you aware that aerosols are the only thing keeping us from blowing past levels of warming that would be completely catastrophic...?

Have any of the Democrats ever mentioned this? I'm not saying the Republicans are better, but if the D understanding of climate science is, for all intents and purposes, equally as inadequate, what difference does pulling either lever actually make?

One could make the case for coal based on its potential reduction in near-term prospects of catastrophic warming. I'm not saying coal is good, but maybe it is a necessary evil until / if we can figure out how to decarbonize without destroying the planet in the process.

I feel like nuance is something you don't do well with, so this may be my last post in here for a while.

[blumenkraft]

The Dems don't bring up every detail of climate science on the debate stages and therefore you consider voting for the climate change denier. Sure, makes total sense...

You are discrediting yourself so damn hard, Bbr, it's amazing.

[bbr2314]

The Dems don't bring up every detail of climate science on the debate stages and therefore you consider voting for the climate change denier. Sure, makes total sense...

You are discrediting yourself so damn hard, Bbr, it's amazing.

...that is not what I said.... you think any of them know about the aerosol masking effect on warming? OK, you keep thinking that.

[blumenkraft]

Three Minutes Of Joe Biden Getting Owned At The Debate

Biden is getting told what he did in the past, and you can see him regretting it. Lovely to watch.

[blumenkraft]

...that is not what I said....

This is exactly what you said. You stated above you will probably vote for the climate change denier while smearing Dems for not knowing as much about climate science than you. That you don't see this cognitive dissonance is stunning to me.

[bbr2314]

Three Minutes Of Joe Biden Getting Owned At The Debate

Biden is getting told what he did in the past, and you can see him regretting it. Lovely to watch.

This is literally just cannon fodder for 2020... a long, drawn-out Democratic Primary is the worst thing possible for a D victory in 2020 and it is increasingly looking like that is exactly what we are going to see. There is no party unity, there is no sense of urgency about defeating Trump, the same mistakes in 2016 are being repeated in an even more egregious manner this campaign cycle.

[bbr2314]

...that is not what I said....

This is exactly what you said. You stated above you will probably vote for the climate change denier while smearing Dems for not knowing as much about climate science than you. That you don't see this cognitive dissonance is stunning to me.

You are missing my point: whether the Democrats acknowledge climate change or not, ignorance regarding the aerosol issues make any claims they are making, or possible solutions, equally as moot as Trump's denial of climate change altogether. It is like saying that a patient with cancer is better treated by a masseuse than a holistic practitioner. Neither solution is relevant or helpful...

[blumenkraft]

Bbr, you have nothing to say about who the Democratic nominee for 2020 should be. Absolutely nothing.

[bbr2314]

Bbr, you have nothing to say about who the Democratic nominee for 2020 should be. Absolutely nothing.

I said it should be Harris, Biden, or Buttigieg...

[oren]

I'd say the Democrat would say it is awful and that EVERYONE need to reduce their consumption etc., both other people and themselves. While the republican would say he knows it exists, but he prefers to officially deny it while having other people unknowingly foot the bill. But I bow to your superior knowledge.

[bbr2314]

I'd say the Democrat would say it is awful and that EVERYONE need to reduce their consumption etc., both other people and themselves. While the republican would say he knows it exists, but he prefers to officially deny it while having other people unknowingly foot the bill. But I bow to your superior knowledge.

Why does Al Gore have a 7K sqft mansion, why does Leo have a private jet, why does Bernie fly first class, etc? They say blah blah blah and they do whatever they do, they don't really have anything in common.

For the record I live in a small apartment, I don't own a car, I take public transit whenever possible (which is most of the time), my only indulgence is sitting at the front of planes and I am 6'3 so it isn't like that is unreasonable. I guess I eat a lot of different kinds of proteins as well. But, all in all, I do watch what I consume, and I think that increasing tariffs on goods from abroad is perhaps the best way to encourage the same behavior amongst those who do not care quite as much (or at all).

In this regard, Trump is leagues ahead of the Democrats, and they bemoan the policy of tariffs precisely because it DOES reduce peoples' ability to spend $ on items that are especially environmentally destructive (consumer electronics in particular). !

[oren]

Wow, and all this time I thought fossil fuels were the type of consumption most environmentally destructive and that it's they that should be tariffed, including those extracted domestically. Of course, I now realize consumer electronics (only those from abroad, specifically from China) are the main culprit. Kudos to Trump.

Why does Oren drive a car, and still calls for very high taxes on gasoline? Hypocrite who wants only others to reduce consumption? Or someone who knows what the right (partial) solution is, even if it will hurt him as much as others.

[bbr2314]

Wow, and all this time I thought fossil fuels were the type of consumption most environmentally destructive and that it's they that should be tariffed, including those extracted domestically. Of course, I now realize consumer electronics (only those from abroad, specifically from China) are the main culprit. Kudos to Trump.

Why does Oren drive a car, and still calls for very high taxes on gasoline? Hypocrite who wants only others to reduce consumption? Or someone who knows what the right (partial) solution is, even if it will hurt him as much as others.

I am fine with tariffs on fossil fuels.... and more tariffs on more consumer goods from more places... but China in particular!

[blumenkraft]

You are trained very well to find scapegoats but let me ask you this, do you have a white scapegoat as well?

[Neven]

on topic, pls

[budmantis]

BBR, so if Sanders or Warren get the Democratic nomination, you're going to vote for ? (Trump)

Probably

BBR, when I asked that question, I really didnt expect the answer you gave.


I'm sure you're aware that he doesnt believe in AGW?

[bbr2314]

Yep, I'm aware, and as discussed, for all intents and purposes that is no different from any of the stances of the Democrats. They give lip service to the concepts but they don't actually know or care what is happening and they certainly haven't considered the implications of reducing aerosols. Also, they are worse on CC when it comes to a consumerist viewpoint, which is why they hate the tariffs on China.

[Rich]

I'm in Vegas at a small venue waiting for Bernie to show in ~ 1 hour.

The event is meant to be focused on employment matters, but I'm planning to throw in a question on climate change if I get a chance.

Nice thing about being in NV is that it's an early state where the primary vote counts

In 2015, I was shopping from SF to Reno on weekends to canvas for Bernie.

[bbr2314]

I'm in Vegas at a small venue waiting for Bernie to show in ~ 1 hour.

The event is meant to be focused on employment matters, but I'm planning to throw in a question on climate change if I get a chance.

Nice thing about being in NV is that it's an early state where the primary vote counts

In 2015, I was shopping from SF to Reno on weekends to canvas for Bernie.

It's good to know you are as adept at wasting time in your day-to-day life as you are when posting on this forum. 

[Rich]

I'm in Vegas at a small venue waiting for Bernie to show in ~ 1 hour.

The event is meant to be focused on employment matters, but I'm planning to throw in a question on climate change if I get a chance.

Nice thing about being in NV is that it's an early state where the primary vote counts

In 2015, I was shopping from SF to Reno on weekends to canvas for Bernie.

It's good to know you are as adept at wasting time in your day-to-day life as you are when posting on this forum. 

LOL. I am a man fighting quixotic battles.

Like my Jewish ancestors in the Warsaw Ghetto, I'd rather die fighting than hop in a cattle car to Auschwitz.

It's not the outcome that counts, but the journey.

[Klondike Kat]

Three Minutes Of Joe Biden Getting Owned At The Debate

Biden is getting told what he did in the past, and you can see him regretting it. Lovely to watch.

This is literally just cannon fodder for 2020... a long, drawn-out Democratic Primary is the worst thing possible for a D victory in 2020 and it is increasingly looking like that is exactly what we are going to see. There is no party unity, there is no sense of urgency about defeating Trump, the same mistakes in 2016 are being repeated in an even more egregious manner this campaign cycle.

Actually, I believe that the Republican Party has the more drawn out primary and less party unity in 2016 than the Democrats.  The party kept trying to undermine Trump, but could not get out of their own, and he wound up with the nomination.  Trying to unseat a sitting president is difficult, especially in a thriving economy.  The major liberal candidates will likely be viewed as too extreme, and the electorate may be scared that their policies will put the brakes on the economy.  Biden, will not popular on this thread, has wider appeal, and may be seen as a good alternative to Trump.  People also have found memories of Obama, which benefits Biden, and not many of the other candidates, who appeared to attack his policies in the most recent debates.

[TerryM]

<snipped>
 People also have found memories of Obama, which benefits Biden, and not many of the other candidates, who appeared to attack his policies in the most recent debates.

Do you find the bolded true in your state/ region?
Is this just Democrats, or the entire spectrum of voters?
Would any of the candidates benefit from an Obama endorsement? - How about a nod from 1 or both of the Clintons?


Thanks
Terry

[Rich]

<snipped>
 People also have found memories of Obama, which benefits Biden, and not many of the other candidates, who appeared to attack his policies in the most recent debates.

Do you find the bolded true in your state/ region?
Is this just Democrats, or the entire spectrum of voters?
Would any of the candidates benefit from an Obama endorsement? - How about a nod from 1 or both of the Clintons?


Thanks
Terry

Hillary has met with all of the contenders behind closed doors except Bernie. Clinton's are still uber-connected, but their brand is a little toxic, so I don't think their endorsement is sought after.

Kamala Harris is the tightest connection to Clinton world. Her sister was part of HRC"s 2016 staff.

Everyone would love Obama's endorsement, but what's in it for Obama? No upside for him to back someone who might lose. Barack might fancy a spot on the Supreme Court.

[Gumbercules]

<snipped>
 People also have found memories of Obama, which benefits Biden, and not many of the other candidates, who appeared to attack his policies in the most recent debates.

Do you find the bolded true in your state/ region?
Is this just Democrats, or the entire spectrum of voters?
Would any of the candidates benefit from an Obama endorsement? - How about a nod from 1 or both of the Clintons?


Thanks
Terry

Barack might fancy a spot on the Supreme Court.

God help us.

[Klondike Kat]

<snipped>
 People also have found memories of Obama, which benefits Biden, and not many of the other candidates, who appeared to attack his policies in the most recent debates.

Do you find the bolded true in your state/ region?
Is this just Democrats, or the entire spectrum of voters?
Would any of the candidates benefit from an Obama endorsement? - How about a nod from 1 or both of the Clintons?


Thanks
Terry

Yes, I meant the Democratic voters.

[Rich]

Latest Reuters poll, post 2nd debate. Sanders 18%, edging up on Biden at 22%. All others in single digits.

There were just enough voters who wanted to break the establishment to put Trump over Clinton and into the WH in 2016.

Trump broke all of the rules of decorum, but he played ball with McConnell and the transfer of wealth to the rich only accelerated with the tax bill.

Sanders is the guy who will go balls to the wall to break the cycle of inequality. The demand for an anti-establishment figure is still huge.

I can't imagine how a wooden campaigner like Biden is going to hold off Sanders for another 6 months, especially with Warren pounding a similar message. He's not offering anything exciting and visionary for the future.

Bernie's got a hell of a ground game building up and over 1M unique donors. I think he has a great shot at winning it all.

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-POLL/0100B05G09P/index.htmlp

[petm]

In an ideal world, Warren. Unfortunately, we live in the almost polar opposite of ideal. In the world in which we live, the first and only priority must be to defeat Trump. Therefore, Biden. He's too old and too old-school, but he'll be the most difficult for Trump to demonize (from the point of view of his white nationalist, sexist base), and therefore the most likely to win. Biden is good enough, and compared to Trump he's an angel. Or at least sane.

On second thought, I vote for this guy:   

[Rich]

In an ideal world, Warren. Unfortunately, we live in the almost polar opposite of ideal. In the world in which we live, the first and only priority must be to defeat Trump. Therefore, Biden. He's too old and too old-school, but he'll be the most difficult for Trump to demonize (from the point of view of his white nationalist, sexist base), and therefore the most likely to win. Biden is good enough, and compared to Trump he's an angel. Or at least sane.

Why do you find Warren more ideal than Sanders?

If demonizing your opponent in the general election is important, then Sanders is the one in best position to demonize Trump.

If Biden goes after Trump as a racist, Trump will return fire by going after Biden's authorship of the Crime Bill and a very dubious legislative record regarding POC. Sanders has a much better record wrt POC.

We saw how Trump blunted Hillary's ability to attack him on mistreatment of women by highlighting her enabling of Bill Clinton's doing the same. Biden's history on race is the same. Poor.

Sanders can go after Trump on his promise to drain the swamp. Biden is kinda swampy in his connections. Sanders not at all.

Sanders can better go after Trump's failed promise to provide health insurance for everyone. He's trying to get everyone covered, Biden isn't.

Sanders can attack Trump better on fossil fuel ties. America became the world's leading oil producer under Obama-Biden.

Trump will have nothing to attack Sanders with except the socialist label and Bernie will hammer into the American psyche what he intends to do. That is going to bring the non-voters to polls in large numbers. Sanders gives young people and working class voters a reason to show up and vote that Biden doesn't. 

Warren is Bernie-lite. Sanders is the OG.

[Rich]

Sanders appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast has gone absolutely viral. Over 3 million views in 24 hours and #1 on YouTube.

He may be our last chance before the oligarchs shut down the internet.

Edit: > 4 M views
Edit > 6M views (YouTube only)

[Klondike Kat]

Latest Reuters poll, post 2nd debate. Sanders 18%, edging up on Biden at 22%. All others in single digits.

There were just enough voters who wanted to break the establishment to put Trump over Clinton and into the WH in 2016.

Trump broke all of the rules of decorum, but he played ball with McConnell and the transfer of wealth to the rich only accelerated with the tax bill.

Sanders is the guy who will go balls to the wall to break the cycle of inequality. The demand for an anti-establishment figure is still huge.

I can't imagine how a wooden campaigner like Biden is going to hold off Sanders for another 6 months, especially with Warren pounding a similar message. He's not offering anything exciting and visionary for the future.

Bernie's got a hell of a ground game building up and over 1M unique donors. I think he has a great shot at winning it all.

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION-POLL/0100B05G09P/index.htmlp

Funny that you chose the poll most favorable to your candidate.  All others have Biden at over 30%, and more than the next two candidates combined.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Warren would pay farmers to fight AGW:
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/456547-warren-to-pay-farmers-to-fight-climate-change-under-new-plan

[wili]

Maybe we need to stop paying farmers to do things that are ecologically damaging and CO2/methane producing. I just heard that a huge portion of dairy farm income is government subsidy. That's just sick.

[Rich]

Out of 59k Democratic donors in Michigan, 51k have given to the Sanders campaign.

No other candidates have more than 20k.

There are polls and there is hard data as reported to the FEC. Polls can be rigged.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/08/heres-how-much-cash-2020-democrats-raised-michigan-try-beat-trump/1954031001/

[blumenkraft]

Joe Biden Suddenly Realizes He Said Something Horribly Dumb

[blumenkraft]

Warren & Sanders Top New 2020 Democratic Primary Poll - Dem 2020 Presidential Polls August 2019

[Rich]

Almost 6 months to go until the first vote and Biden is leaking oil.

Sanders v. Warren could bring some interesting debates in the spring if it boils down to those two.

[budmantis]

Agree about Biden, he's gaffing himself to death! But don't forget about Kamala Harris.

[TerryM]

Agree about Biden, he's gaffing himself to death! But don't forget about Kamala Harris.

or Tulsi Gabbard.
She's a fresh face on the circuit and she chooses her battles well.
If "Out with the Old" becomes the rallying cry of 2020 Democrats, she's someone to rally around.
If foreign policy becomes the battle ground she can go toe to toe with Trump (or Biden).
If Military experience should matter, she's been vetted.


Terry

[Rich]

Agree about Biden, he's gaffing himself to death! But don't forget about Kamala Harris.

or Tulsi Gabbard.
She's a fresh face on the circuit and she chooses her battles well.
If "Out with the Old" becomes the rallying cry of 2020 Democrats, she's someone to rally around.
If foreign policy becomes the battle ground she can go toe to toe with Trump (or Biden).
If Military experience should matter, she's been vetted.


Terry

If pigs had wings, they might fly. Tulsi is polling at 1%. She isn't a contender.

Kamala Harris? A talented politician, but not in 2020. Sanders and Warren are winning the authenticity battle and aren't doing the big donor fundraising circuit. 

[cognitivebias2]

I think if anyone over 70 is the nominee it will be bad for the party.  Sorry Joe and Bernie, but its time for a new generation.  Warren does not seem her 70 years, so she maybe is on the borderline.  Someone else would be my choice, it does not matter what their current poll numbers say.

[Rich]

What's important to Democratic voters?

1) Name recognition / history

Biden, Sanders and Warren were the most well known candidates prior to the race and no surprise they are leading the pack.

Harris and Buttigieg are increasing their profiles but lagging in record.

2) Beating Trump

Biden polls best vs. Trump, followed closely by Sanders.

3) Identity politics

Biden leading with black voters as a result of his Obama connection (despite a lousy record on race issues).

For those set on voting for a woman, Warren is the best prospect.

Mayor Pete has his gay male bloc.

4) Addressing inequality

Sanders 1. Warren 2. Neither is doing big money fundraisers. Sanders dominates among young voters and those making < 50k. Warren's supporters are more affluent and better educated.

5) Health care

A subset of addressing inequality but important enough. Again it's Sanders, then Warren.

6) Climate emergency

TBD

7) Media influence

The MSM is going to kneecap or ignore Sanders at every opportunity. He's battling that as best he can. 8M+ views on his Joe Rogan interview is a good sign.

8- Age

Biden and Sanders would be the oldest POTUS ever elected by a considerable margin. Warren would be over 70 as well, but she has the edge in comparison.

Biden is actually showing signs of senility on the trail. Sanders maintains an extraordinarily busy schedule and is much more in command of his message. His events are packed with young people.

Outlook

Perhaps wishful thinking, but I think Biden fades due to his many flaws as a candidate.

I think Warren s/b the betting favorite at this point in large part because of the media antipathy for Sanders. A big issue will be the head to head polling vs. Trump.

Sanders appeals to a lot of voters who might not otherwise show up in a general election. If Sanders continues to poll much better than Warren vs. Trump, he's the better choice.

I'm with Bernie. I want the revolution. I want the guy who is going to go toe to toe with the oligarchs and their purchased media and Congress critters.

[cognitivebias2]

Nice post Rich.

I think calling for a revolution (or the revolutionary candidate) is a losing position in the general election, but I appreciate the sentiment.

Sanders sometimes, to me at least, appears as just an angry old man.  At his best he is my favorite also, but he is not always in his element. 

Warren has the strongest message on policy/solutions (imo). 

The problem with any woman being nominee is (imo) a built in bias, especially in some of the battleground states.  The nominee will have to be brutal against the bullying attacks that they will face.  When a woman in American politics is brutal she is portrayed as a bitch (by MSM), whereas a man is portrayed as tough.

If Bernie is the nominee, and he fades due to age, and hands it to Trump... well that's a catastrophe.

Whomever is the nominee, I will be voting and pulling for them.  The great national embarrassment that is the Trump presidency must end.

 

[blumenkraft]

Erm, no, Cognitivebias2.

I think if anyone over 70 is the nominee it will be bad for the party.

In politics, this is a completely arbitrary line. This is about politics and not a beauty competition.

It needs to be a principled, consequent and intelligent candidate. There is only one candidate checking all these boxes.

I think calling for a revolution (or the revolutionary candidate) is a losing position

This is exactly how you win the presidency. The orange fart ran on a revolutionary idea, (i.e. 'drain the swamp'). Obama won on 'Change' in general. Not that they meant it, but this brought them votes - a shitton of votes.

Bernie actually means it. He is fighting for the issues for 50 years. He will not change his mind in his seniority.

A non-populist candidate will lose against the orange fart. Ask your conservative friends if you don't believe me, they will confirm that.

Sanders sometimes, to me at least, appears as just an angry old man

I don't understand this argument at all. If you talk about all those outrages American problems and don't get angry, you are not taking this shit seriously. You need to understand the issues and once you understand them, you get angry. It's just a natural consequence. It's human and it's appropriate.

At this point, if your candidate doesn't fight like a lion, the country has no chance to improve.

Warren has the strongest message on policy/solutions (imo).

Her message is entirely stolen from Sanders. How can she have the strongest message then? There is an obvious logical flaw in this argument.

Also, she is the one who especially mentioned she would be open for corporate donors right after the primaries. She can't be trusted. She is a brilliant politician, but she will use this for gaining power, not to fight for the people.

She is only one of the many status quo candidates.

If Bernie is the nominee, and he fades due to age, and hands it to Trump... well that's a catastrophe.

The orange fart is 73, Bernie is 77.
Life expectancy for a 73 yo is 12.43 years.
Life expectancy for a 77 yo is 10.00 years.

(Edit: Sorry, had the female numbers at first, fixed it now)

The difference is marginal and given the farts orange health i would guess Bernie will live during the orange funeral (can't wait!).

Whomever is the nominee, I will be voting and pulling for them.

And while i disagree with you so much here, this is golden and is 100% true. Every democrat (lower d!!) should vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is. Period.

[blumenkraft]

Perhaps wishful thinking, but I think Perhaps wishful thinking, but I think Biden fades due to his many flaws as a candidate.

Biden will fade, that's a given.

[Klondike Kat]

Perhaps wishful thinking, but I think Perhaps wishful thinking, but I think Biden fades due to his many flaws as a candidate.

Biden will fade, that's a given.

I disagree.  I think Biden will secure the nomination before the convention.  Warren is the only candidate polling well enough to have a chance.  Sanders numbers are stuck in the high teens, and seem unlikely to budge much.  The rest are the ones that are fading.