Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?

[sedziobs]

I still believe Bloomberg is the real establishment candidate to worry about. It will become clear one way or the other on Super Tuesday. He picked up his first polling lead today, with 20% in Arkansas.

[Florifulgurator]

blumenkraft, could you please translate the above?

A troll objects my countertrolling   Just reported Bannon liking Bernie.
Actually, I haven't been trollish, but their subconsciousness smelled something.

Now back to hacking away the fallen tree...

<OK, under moderation, now; N.>

[Neven]

I still believe Bloomberg is the real establishment candidate to worry about. It will become clear one way or the other on Super Tuesday. He picked up his first polling lead today, with 20% in Arkansas.

After seeing this excellent interview with Lee Fang, earlier today, I think you may be right (unfortunately). Fast forward to the interview if you don't have the time, although Halper and Taibbi are absolutely wonderful as well:

[Neven]

Wall Street Pete:

[Florifulgurator]

<snip, no mainstream establishment narratives, and certainly no videos, thanks; N.>

--------------------------------
Bannon is quite obviously no stupid. He is the evil mastermind behind what gave us Trump. So, my hunch is: Bernie (or rather the Berners) will help Trump get reelected.  Bernie is an involuntary Trojan horse.

You could at least keep the Bill Maher Overtime video.    If you can stand Jimmy Dore, you should be able to tolerate Bill Maher. (The other 2 videos were intended as documentation. If you are seriously interested in U.S. politics, you have to watch CNN and MSNBC occasionally. Like a Sovietologist had to read the Prawda. )

<snip, stop promoting the smear that Bernie and Trump are the same. And did I delete the Maher video? I still like Maher, he's funny, but he's also an out-of-touch millionnaire supporting establishment neoliberal narratives; N.>

[blumenkraft]

The Kids Like Bernie. Maybe Everyone Else Should Listen.

On his way to winning the New Hampshire primary, Bernie Sanders got more votes from people under 30 than all other candidates combined.

Link >> https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a30892680/bernie-sanders-youth-vote-new-hampshire-primary/

[oren]

I just wish the youth would actually bother to vote in the same percentages as older people. US (and global) politics would be completely different.
A young person today, with a fucked-up future, full of pollution and debt and poor jobs and absurd cost of housing, education and healthcare, who does not vote (or does not vote for the right candidates) - I simply can't understand that.

[blumenkraft]

All hope is not lost yet, Oren.

Although overall turnout was flat during the Iowa caucuses, Shakir pointed to an uptick in voters under 30, even compared with 2008, which saw an overall record turnout in the state. That’s proof, Shakir says, that Sanders is generating enthusiasm among younger voters.

Link >> https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/#democratic-turnout-nears-2008-record-105

[blumenkraft]

Trigger warning! Link to nazi.

Tulsi is out of the clear. Richard Spencer turned his endorsement to Bloomberg.

Link >> https://twitter.com/RichardBSpencer/status/1227067004219084800

[Rob Dekker]

With the Democratic Primaries well on their way, and Bernie being the prime candidate at this time, there is one question I have for the Bernie-or-bust posters here (of which I know Neven is one) :

If Bernie ends up NOT being the Democratic candidate, would you vote Blue-no-matter-Who ? Or Trump ?

[The Walrus]

All hope is not lost yet, Oren.

Although overall turnout was flat during the Iowa caucuses, Shakir pointed to an uptick in voters under 30, even compared with 2008, which saw an overall record turnout in the state. That’s proof, Shakir says, that Sanders is generating enthusiasm among younger voters.

Link >> https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/#democratic-turnout-nears-2008-record-105

Flat?  The turnout was disappointing low.  It was 25% lower than 2008.  The party was expecting a record turnout, anticipating up to 300k. Instead they got barely half that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-caucuses-turnout-democrats.amp.html

[Ktb]

Sure Iowa was low but New Hampshire had record turnout. We shall see which path the rest of the caucuses and primaries follow.

Hopefully Iowa was an exception, not the rule.

[sidd]

Medicare for All would save half a trillion US$/yr and 68K lives/yr : Lancet

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/15/sanders-applauds-new-medicare-all-study-will-save-americans-450-billion-and-prevent

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)33019-3

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33019-3/fulltext

open access version (for the moment):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cOhhLqYigSfGJcDQYrU948jO6nxg75ib/view

Similar study at plos, open access:

doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003013

sidd

[Ktb]

Can no longer find the source, but read that early voting in California is up 300k votes compared to the same number of days out from the primary in 2016. Tracking for record breaking primary voters. 2008 watch out.


And in other news: my dad is convinced that if it comes to Bernie vs Trump, Trump will win in a landslide similar to the Nixon vs McGovern 1972 election (60.7% of the popular vote and 49 states/520 electoral votes vs 37.5% of the popular vote and 1 state + DC/17 electoral votes). Thankfully, I wasn't drinking anything so I didn't spit water everywhere from laughing so hard.

[The Walrus]

Can no longer find the source, but read that early voting in California is up 300k votes compared to the same number of days out from the primary in 2016. Tracking for record breaking primary voters. 2008 watch out.


And in other news: my dad is convinced that if it comes to Bernie vs Trump, Trump will win in a landslide similar to the Nixon vs McGovern 1972 election (60.7% of the popular vote and 49 states/520 electoral votes vs 37.5% of the popular vote and 1 state + DC/17 electoral votes). Thankfully, I wasn't drinking anything so I didn't spit water everywhere from laughing so hard.

He is not the only one.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/09/democrats-mcgovern-1972-trump-nixon-2020-215687

However, I think it would be more the following:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/01/06/progressive-democrats-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren

[Observer2019]

And in other news: my dad is convinced that if it comes to Bernie vs Trump, Trump will win in a landslide similar to the Nixon vs McGovern 1972 election (60.7% of the popular vote and 49 states/520 electoral votes vs 37.5% of the popular vote and 1 state + DC/17 electoral votes). Thankfully, I wasn't drinking anything so I didn't spit water everywhere from laughing so hard.

I doubt Trump can get 60% but 50% - yes. Also a bigger e.c. win with 1-3 states more going red.
A Bernie nominee will bring out the young vote but at the same time will deter older dem centrists. I don't think that many will vote Trump but they could stay home.

[Neven]

With the Democratic Primaries well on their way, and Bernie being the prime candidate at this time, there is one question I have for the Bernie-or-bust posters here (of which I know Neven is one) :

If Bernie ends up NOT being the Democratic candidate, would you vote Blue-no-matter-Who ? Or Trump ?

If I were American and I lived in a non-swing state, I'd vote third party or not at all. If I lived in a swing state, it would depend on the Democratic candidate. I probably would vote for Warren as the lesser evil choice, but not for Biden, Klobuchar, Wall Street Pete, Bloomberg, etc. Or maybe I would vote third party as well. I would never vote for Trump, not even out of strategic considerations (so that populism on the left grows strong enough to eliminate Corporate Democrats, which is the only silver lining to the Trump presidency).

Problems are systemic. Voting Blue-no-matter-who doesn't bring systemic changes, but only reinforces the status quo. It's a really stupid (and immoral) thing to do, unless you're not really serious about things like AGW. Only Sanders offers a potential way forward, nobody else.

[blumenkraft]

at the same time will deter older dem centrists

For how i see it, the average Dem centrist voter is rather agnostic about the candidate. They just want to vote against Taliban Trump in 2020.

This whole attempt to discredit Sanders by calling him a socialist isn't sticking anymore. Reps said that about Obama too. This is a toothless tiger...

[Observer2019]

For how i see it, the average Dem centrist voter is rather agnostic about the candidate. They just want to vote against Taliban Trump in 2020.

Of course some are, even most BUT it doesn't take many. Trump won a few swing states by a very small amount of votes ( less than 100K I think) and he was close in a few other states. In 2016 a small amount of "never hillary" Bernie supporters could have made the difference. I also see quite a bit of infighting between the candidates more fervent base in the same manner as 2016.

[blumenkraft]

I agree with the points you are making, Observer. But it's the same math that makes me think Bernie is more likely to activate non-voters and therefore tip the 50/50 thingy in the right direction. Young folks, independents, minorities, ... at the end, he speaks to the 99%.

[The Walrus]

I agree with the points you are making, Observer. But it's the same math that makes me think Bernie is more likely to activate non-voters and therefore tip the 50/50 thingy in the right direction. Young folks, independents, minorities, ... at the end, he speaks to the 99%.

The 99% is just a numerical expression.  Those in the 2% have more in common with the 1%, than the bottom half.  The same goes for the 5%, although less so.  In reality, there is a gradual spectrum, with no magical dividing line.  If there was such a stark contrast, then one party would control everything.

I agree that Bernie is likely to activate non-voters.  But I feel they are on the left hand side of the spectrum.  Voters who would never cast a ballot for Trump.  Whether he can tilt the swing voters, remains to be seen.

[blumenkraft]

The wishful thinking stage ... 

[blumenkraft]

The 99% is just a numerical expression.

Wat? 

Google "occupy Wallstreet", Walrus. 

[The Walrus]

The 99% is just a numerical expression.

Wat? 

Google "occupy Wallstreet", Walrus. 

Do you really believe that the 2% have more in common with the bottom folks than the 1%?  Of course not.  Neither do the top 5 or 10%. With over half of Americans being invested in the stock market, they have a material interest in the success on wall st., and not the occupy movement.  People have a vested interest in the success of the markets, not their destruction.  The old adage that people vote with their pocketbooks, is as true today as it was a century ago.

[sedziobs]

A Nevada poll released today shows Bernie with a huge 19 point advantage. Sanders had 35%, with Warren, Buttigieg, and Biden effectively tied for second around 15%.

[blumenkraft]

Do you really believe that the 2% have more in common with the bottom folks than the 1%?  Of course not.  Neither do the top 5 or 10%. With over half of Americans being invested in the stock market, they have a material interest in the success on wall st., and not the occupy movement.  People have a vested interest in the success of the markets, not their destruction.  The old adage that people vote with their pocketbooks, is as true today as it was a century ago.

Sorry, Walrus, i really don't know what you mean with the 2%, the 5%, the 10%.

The point is, 99% are not billionaires. But the US economy is only great for the billionaires.

[sidd]

Re: top 10%

this belongs in a different thread

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2143.msg250152.html#msg250152

sidd

[sidd]

Hedges on fire at truthdig:

"The Democrats have, once again, offered us their preselected corporate candidates. We can vote for a candidate who serves oligarchic power, albeit with more decorum than Trump, or we can see Trump shoved down our throats. That is the choice. "

"We are all made to kneel before the altar of the least worst. We get nothing in return."

"The repeated cowardice of the liberal class, which backs a Democratic Party that in Europe would be considered a far-right party, saw it squander its credibility. Its rhetoric proved empty. Its moral posturing was a farce. It fought for nothing. In assault after assault on the working class it was complicit. "

"By surrendering every election cycle to the least worst, liberals proved they have no breaking point. There never has been a line in the sand. They have stood for nothing."

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-new-rules-of-the-game/

sidd

[The Walrus]

Do you really believe that the 2% have more in common with the bottom folks than the 1%?  Of course not.  Neither do the top 5 or 10%. With over half of Americans being invested in the stock market, they have a material interest in the success on wall st., and not the occupy movement.  People have a vested interest in the success of the markets, not their destruction.  The old adage that people vote with their pocketbooks, is as true today as it was a century ago.

Sorry, Walrus, i really don't know what you mean with the 2%, the 5%, the 10%.

The point is, 99% are not billionaires. But the US economy is only great for the billionaires.

The economy is always great for billionaires.  This past decade has been great for nearly everyone.  If the Democrats continue denying that, and push to change it, the voters are going to rebel.  Remember, Trump was not elected because people liked him.  He won because they did not like the alternative.  Did not give them another.

[blumenkraft]

This past decade has been great for nearly everyone

Sorry, Walrus, you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

There are millions of people who died in this oh so great decade because they couldn't even afford healthcare.

How are you so out of touch? Have you ever heard about the opioid crisis? About the housing crisis? About how most US citizens can't afford a financial emergency?

[oren]

This past decade has been great for nearly everyone

Sorry, Walrus, you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

There are millions of people who died in this oh so great decade because they couldn't even afford healthcare.

How are you so out of touch? Have you ever heard about the opioid crisis? About the housing crisis? About how most US citizens can't afford a financial emergency?

Well said BL. And don't forget the debt-ridden students with no future.

[The Walrus]

This past decade has been great for nearly everyone

Sorry, Walrus, you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

There are millions of people who died in this oh so great decade because they couldn't even afford healthcare.

How are you so out of touch? Have you ever heard about the opioid crisis? About the housing crisis? About how most US citizens can't afford a financial emergency?

Your insulting post does little to change the facts.  What does the opioid crisis have to do with the economy?  Sure there are a few percent (millions) that have not done as well.  But what about the hundreds of millions that have excelled?  The bottom 1% have always suffered.  Someone wiser than me once said that there will be poor always.  I have no reason to believe he was wrong.  The bottom line is that this economy is quite stronger, and the multitude have benefitted.

[blumenkraft]

What does the opioid crisis have to do with the economy?

QED

[wili]

Yeah, Wally seems to be rather clueless on this topic.

Over 80% of Americans are worried about unexpected medical bills. That's just not something that most people in most of the rest of the industrialized world even have to think about.

https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/data-note-americans-challenges-health-care-costs/

Meanwhile:

Sanders opens 12-point lead nationally

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483408-sanders-opens-12-point-lead-nationally-poll

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has opened a 12-point lead nationally in the Democratic presidential primary field, according to a new poll.

Sanders has 31 percent support in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released early Tuesday, pushing him into the top spot, which had been held by former Vice President Joe Biden.

Sanders’s support shot up 9 points since last month’s poll, following his victory in the New Hampshire primary.

Biden’s support, however, decreased by 9 points to 15 percent in the new survey. Biden’s downturn pushed him into third place, behind former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who surged into second place with 19 percent....

A bit ironic for Bernie to be now up against a billionaire. Well, I guess that will give him more practice in bringing down billionaire goliaths so he can wup Trumps behind even harder

[blumenkraft]

... but the others combined are still stronger!

- CNN & MSNBC

[blumenkraft]

@TayZonday on Twitter
Being poor now just leads to being more
poor later. Can't pay to clean your teeth?
Next year, pay for a root canal. Can't pay
for a new mattress? Next year, pay for
back surgery. Can't pay to get that lump
checked out? Next year, pay for stage 3
cancer. Poverty charges interest.
7/19/18, 12:53 PM
88.6K Retweets 222K Likes

[The Walrus]

Yeah, Wally seems to be rather clueless on this topic.

Over 80% of Americans are worried about unexpected medical bills. That's just not something that most people in most of the rest of the industrialized world even have to think about.

https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/data-note-americans-challenges-health-care-costs/

Meanwhile:

Sanders opens 12-point lead nationally

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483408-sanders-opens-12-point-lead-nationally-poll

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has opened a 12-point lead nationally in the Democratic presidential primary field, according to a new poll.

Sanders has 31 percent support in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released early Tuesday, pushing him into the top spot, which had been held by former Vice President Joe Biden.

Sanders’s support shot up 9 points since last month’s poll, following his victory in the New Hampshire primary.

Biden’s support, however, decreased by 9 points to 15 percent in the new survey. Biden’s downturn pushed him into third place, behind former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who surged into second place with 19 percent....

A bit ironic for Bernie to be now up against a billionaire. Well, I guess that will give him more practice in bringing down billionaire goliaths so he can wup Trumps behind even harder

And yet the uninsured population has remained steady for decades, independent of economic conditions.  I think it is time for some self-reflection.  If the Democrats try to run on fixing the economy, they will lose.  Too many already think they are out of touch.   People like the way things are and are tired of so-called political fixes. 

[blumenkraft]

@Millerheighife on Twitter

when i lost my job after missing work
due to a medical emergency, i lost my
insurance, within 2 months i was
evicted from my apt, lost my car, was
homeless, and had over six figures of
medical debt.

but i'm sure ppl being mean on twitter
is super rough too.

[Neven]

With the Democratic Primaries well on their way, and Bernie being the prime candidate at this time, there is one question I have for the Bernie-or-bust posters here (of which I know Neven is one) :

If Bernie ends up NOT being the Democratic candidate, would you vote Blue-no-matter-Who ? Or Trump ?

There is one question I have for the Blue-no-matter-who posters here (looking at you, Rob Dekker):

When they cheat Bernie out of the nomination, will you vote for Bloomberg?

[blumenkraft]

9 New Primary Polls - Biden in Free Fall, Bernie Solidifies Frontrunner Status

[blumenkraft]

When they cheat Bernie out of the nomination

Call me naive, but this scenario is really hard to imagine to me at this point.

The Sanders avalanche seems unstoppable.

[Neven]

By how much of a margin does he have to win to prevent the superdelegates of coming in and cheating him out of the nomination?

[blumenkraft]

Again, i might be naive here, but IMHO the superdelegates will not dare to change the popular vote. We'll see.

[blumenkraft]

[blumenkraft]

Baby Bloomberg (aka Mayo Pete) was just caught cheating again. Guess who doesn't care...

Buttigieg and super PAC improperly coordinated on Nevada ads, watchdog group says

Link >> https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buttigieg-and-his-super-pac-improperly-coordinated-on-nevada-ads-watchdog-group-says/2020/02/18/e46609ae-5273-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

[blumenkraft]

[sedziobs]

By how much of a margin does he have to win to prevent the superdelegates of coming in and cheating him out of the nomination?

I think that would do more to advance a revolution than Bernie actually winning the nomination.

But to answer your question, superdelegates will only vote if there is a contested convention. That will happen if the top candidate wins a plurality but not a majority. 1,991 delegates are needed to win a majority.

Nate Silver's model currently has Sanders with a 41% chance of winning a majority, and a 36% chance of a contested convention.

[wili]

In trying to defend himself, Wal further proves his cluelessness.

"People like the way things are..."

Perhaps this is based on your own circle of friends and associates, or you just made it up out of thin air. But it really only takes a couple seconds and a scintilla of effort to find out the truth  or at least some evidence (but perhaps you have no actual interest in evidence-based truth?).

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx

Only about 30 - 40 % of Americans express "Satisfaction with the way things are going," and it's been well below 50% for about 20 years now.

So, yes, some people are satisfied (probably mostly Republicans) with the situation in the US. Most are not.

[blumenkraft]

In trying to defend himself, Wal further proves his cluelessness.

"People like the way things are..."

I was about to reply to this BS as well, but then i thought fuck it. I bet Neven will ban this centrist sooner or later, i think we can spare our breath.

Anyway, thanks Wili for providing actual numbers.

[blumenkraft]

Poll: Bernie Beats Biden & Bloomberg With Moderate Voters