US intervention in foreign lands

[sidd]

Whoa! Pompeo agrees to US pullout of Afghanistan ?

"Pompeo confirmed that the US is prepared to remove its troops from Afghanistan"

https://news.antiwar.com/2019/06/25/pompeo-us-prepared-to-remove-troops-from-afghanistan/

Of course, he's a lying sack of shit ...

sidd

[SteveMDFP]

Another step in escalation towards war against Iran:

Iranian official threatens to seize British oil tanker
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48882455

The Tl;DR:  A supertanker taking Iranian crude to Syria was seized by the UK government in Gibraltar, seemingly on orders from the White House.
The UK's justification was that the destination was a Syrian refinery under EU sanctions (and not, putatively, the US-only sanctions against Iran).  A distinction without a difference.

Hardliners on all sides are being empowered and emboldened by hardliners on the other side.

Iran inevitably will retaliate in some way.  Then the US will surely counter-retaliate.  A positive feedback loop seems to be in play.  The world marches toward a Middle East conflagration.

[Neven]

Scott Ritter is arguably the most experienced American weapons inspector and in this interview with Dennis J. Bernstein he levels a frank assessment of U.S. government assertions about chemical weapons use in Douma, Syria.

https://consortiumnews.com/2018/04/27/weapons-inspector-refutes-u-s-syria-chemical-claims/

A second whistleblower has come out, claiming that the OPCW has suppressed evidence regarding the alleged gas attack in Douma. I don't think this is reported in mainstream news, so I thought I'd put it out here for those who follow only mainstream news:



I hope one day we'll hear what really happened, and can then compare to everything that has been alleged.

[Neven]

Here's an even better interview by Maté with Jonathan Steele, the journalist who first interviewed the second whistleblower:



Steele: "These are professional scientists, they've worked for many years at the OPCW, they wouldn't have been sent to Syria to pick up evidence if they'd had strong political views of one kind or another. They just feel annoyed that their professional scientific conclusions have been rejected in favour of politically biased answers which favour the foreign policy agenda of certain powerful Western states. They feel that science is being corrupted."

[TerryM]

Neven
Don't fall for it! These sycophantic so called "scientists" hold that Higgins' obviously objective observations are uncontestably untenable, that they're little more than the mad scribblings of an unemployed purveyor of ladies undergarments, observations he personally observed from his imaginary observatory secreted away in the bowels of his mother's modest abode.


Eliot's persistent predilection for playing online may have taken a toll on his musculature, his education and his employability, but all this time for solitary rumination allowed his unfettered fantasies to run rampant. He became capable of conceiving conspiracies deemed inconceivable by those more experienced, better educated, and hampered by their unfaltering grasp of reality.


Without the firsthand testimony of those that swore that there had been no chemical attack, that testified under oath how children had been snatched off the streets by strangers in White Hard Hats, then filmed as they were forcefully scrubbed and hosed off, these "scientists" would have nothing to offer but the results of their own tests, their own analysis of the site, and their years of experience to rely on.


Is the testimony of expert professionals who were "on site" judged as being more reliable than the word of an unemployed underwear salesman blogging from his doting mother's basement? Are verifiable facts now seen as more reliable than the words of the illustrious Atlantic Council?


Terry

[sidd]

Marx at antiwar: no end in sight

"Our Southeast Asian misadventure was also very much like its evil twin, the disastrous war in Afghanistan – an illegal intervention to prop up a corrupt government, fueled on hubris, with no discernible end state. Still, US forces avoided calling the war in Vietnam unwinnable 50 years ago, as in Afghanistan today."

" Jean-Louis Bourgeois noted, "For Americans to withdraw from Afghanistan is not a reason for shame. This is not about America; in fact, this is where American exceptionalism gets us into trouble. The shame is to deny the reality of the situation."  "

https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2019/11/15/vietnam-vs-afghanistan-matched-mayhem-ceaseless-war/

sidd

[vox_mundi]

Six Saudis Said Questioned After Pensacola Navy Base Shooting
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/06/us/pensacola-florida-navy-shooting.html

A member of the Saudi Air Force armed with a handgun fatally shot three people and injured eight others on Friday morning during a bloody rampage in a classroom building at the Naval Air Station in Pensacola, Fla., where he was training to become a pilot.

... Six other Saudi nationals were detained for questioning near the scene of the shooting, including three who were seen filming the entire incident, according to a person briefed on the initial stages of the investigation. A group that monitors online jihadist activity said that shortly before the shooting, a Twitter account with a name matching the gunman’s posted  a “will” calling the United States a “nation of evil” and criticizing its support for Israel.

---------------------------------

Pentagon Moves Forward with Saudi Defense Mission
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/pentagon-moves-forward-with-saudi-defense-mission/2019/11/27/e1a36444-112a-11ea-b0fc-62cc38411ebb_story.html

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The United States is negotiating cost-sharing terms with Saudi Arabia for an expanding military mission aimed at ensuring the kingdom is protected from attacks on critical oil infrastructure, officials said.

Trump authorized a boost to the relatively light U.S. footprint in Saudi Arabia, from an advisory mission that stood around 800 to a force of about 3,000, following the Sept. 14 assault on Saudi oil facilities

----------------------------------

Trump Mulls Sending Additional 14,000 Troops to Middle East
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-considers-14-000-more-troops-for-mideast-11575494228

WASHINGTON—The Trump administration is considering a significant expansion of the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East to counter Iran, including dozens more ships, other military hardware and as many as 14,000 additional troops, U.S. officials said.

-----------------------------------

Pentagon Officials Struggle to Explain Plans for Middle East Deployments
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/05/american-troops-middle-east-iran-076369

[vox_mundi]

Documents Reveal Misleading Public Statements on War in Afghanistan
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/09/world/asia/afghanistan-war-documents.html

A confidential trove of government documents obtained by The Washington Post reveals that senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan throughout the 18-year campaign, making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable. ...

Thousands of pages of documents detailing the war in Afghanistan released by The Washington Post on Monday paint a stark picture of missteps and failures — and delivered in the words of prominent American officials, many of whom publicly had said the mission was succeeding.

[sidd]

from the wapo article:

"we didn't know what we were doing"

"With most speaking on the assumption that their remarks would not become public, U.S. officials acknowledged that their warfighting strategies were fatally flawed and that Washington wasted enormous sums of money trying to remake Afghanistan into a modern nation. "

“After the killing of Osama bin Laden, I said that Osama was probably laughing in his watery grave considering how much we have spent on Afghanistan.”

"we became a self-licking ice cream cone."

" “We don’t invade poor countries to make them rich,” James Dobbins, a former senior U.S. diplomat who served as a special envoy to Afghanistan under Bush and Obama, told government interviewers. “We don’t invade authoritarian countries to make them democratic. We invade violent countries to make them peaceful and we clearly failed in Afghanistan." "

“Our policy was to create a strong central government which was idiotic because Afghanistan does not have a history of a strong central government,”

“The timeframe for creating a strong central government is 100 years, which we didn’t have."

" We were given money, told to spend it and we did, without reason."

"expected to dole out $3 million daily for projects in a single Afghan district roughly the size of a U.S. county. "

"The gusher of aid that Washington spent on Afghanistan also gave rise to historic levels of corruption. "

"By allowing corruption to fester, U.S. officials told interviewers, they helped destroy the popular legitimacy of the wobbly Afghan government they were fighting to prop up. With judges and police chiefs and bureaucrats extorting bribes, many Afghans soured on democracy and turned to the Taliban to enforce order. "

"U.S. military trainers described the Afghan security forces as incompetent, unmotivated and rife with deserters ... None expressed confidence that the Afghan army and police could ever fend off, much less defeat, the Taliban on their own. "

"At first, Afghan poppy farmers were paid by the British to destroy their crops — which only encouraged them to grow more the next season. Later, the U.S. government eradicated poppy fields without compensation — which only infuriated farmers and encouraged them to side with the Taliban. "

"it may take a year or two. But we will prevail."

“We’re making some steady progress,”

“First, we are steadily making deliberate progress,”

“The past eight months have seen important but hard-fought progress,”

“The campaign, as I’ve pointed out before, I think has made significant progress,”

“We are seeing some progress,”

"constant pressure from the Obama White House and Pentagon to produce figures to show the troop surge of 2009 to 2011 was working, despite hard evidence to the contrary. "

"Suicide bombings in Kabul were portrayed as a sign of the Taliban’s desperation, that the insurgents were too weak to engage in direct combat. Meanwhile, a rise in U.S. troop deaths was cited as proof that American forces were taking the fight to the enemy. "

" “For example, attacks are getting worse? ‘That’s because there are more targets for them to fire at, so more attacks are a false indicator of instability.’ Then, three months later, attacks are still getting worse? ‘It’s because the Taliban are getting desperate, so it’s actually an indicator that we’re winning.’ ”  "

" they claimed they were making progress. "

"So if we are doing such a great job, why does it feel like we are losing?"

Last year, 3,804 Afghan civilians were killed in the war ...  the most in one year since the United Nations began tracking casualties a decade ago."

Read the whole thing. My fucking tax dollars at work.

sidd

[blumenkraft]

U.S. Veteran: 'The Real Terrorist Was Me'

[blumenkraft]

History of the US Invading America - Radical Reviewer

[blumenkraft]

Trigger warning - extremely graphic!

Agent Orange: Bone-Chilling Photos Of The War Crime The US Government Got Away With

Link >> https://www.collective-evolution.com/2018/01/29/agent-orange-24-bone-chilling-photos-of-the-war-crime-the-us-government-got-away-with/

[vox_mundi]

From the US

Top Iraq militia chief warns of tough response to U.S. air strikes
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa/top-iraq-militia-chief-warns-of-tough-response-to-us-air-strikes-idUSKBN1YY0II

The U.S. military carried out air strikes on Sunday against the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia group in response to the killing of a U.S. civilian contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base, officials said.

... There was no immediate comment from the Iraqi government on the air strikes. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, who is backed by Iran and its allies, resigned last month as the protests continued but has remained in office in a caretaker capacity.

--------------------------------

US versions of the story left somethings out ...

From Germany

US hits back at Iran-linked militia in Iraq after rocket attack
https://www.dw.com/en/us-hits-back-at-iran-linked-militia-in-iraq-after-rocket-attack/a-51829278

The US has attacked an Iranian-backed militia inside Syria and Iraq in retaliation for a rocket attack on a base that killed an American contractor. Pro-Iranian militia and the Iraqi government condemned the US action.

----------------------------

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31651/u-s-strikes-iranian-proxy-force-bases-in-iraq-and-syria-following-deadly-rocket-attack

Iraqi President Bahram Salih says US attack on PMF (Hashd) is a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

Spox of the commander of #Iraq’s Armed Forces, said during a live interview on state television, the U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper informed the Iraqi Prime Minister half an hour prior to the US airstrikes against #Iran-backed militia positions.

Spox said that #Iraq's PM "expressed his strong objection to this unilateral decision and his concern that it would lead to further escalation and demanded that he [Esper] stop it [airstrikes] immediately.”

Spokesman of the commander of #Iraq’s Armed Forces, Abdelkarim Khalaf, said during a live INTV on state TV that “these strikes represents a treacherous stab in the back.”.

[TerryM]

An Evo Morales disciple leads in Bolivian polls. He fears that the US backed right wing coup will rig the elections when if they're held. The "interim" selected president is polling in the 5th place with 7.5% of the vote, while Andronico Rodriguez, a potential MAS candidate, leads the pack with an 18.4% approval rating. This interview with Anddonico followed a MAS rally attended by 50K.


https://thegrayzone.com/2019/12/28/andronico-rodriguez-bolivia-coup-interview/

[sidd]

US assasinates Soleimani in Iraq: Sadr activates Mahdi army

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-tensions-latest-updates-200103022407743.html

https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/trump-troll-impeachment.html

sidd

[TerryM]

^^
It seems as though the hubris and stupidity of the DNC has been exceeded by The Assassin in Chief.


Let the games begin.
Terry

[vox_mundi]

The "Don" is acting like "Sonny" in the Godfather. The question is, how will the Ayatollah respond? Assassination is now 'on the table'.



Projection for the New Year: Trump Properties will significantly drop in value internationally and he'll be shy at least one child before the end of the year.

--------------------------

Elsewhere ...

... Senate Foriegn Relations Committee member Tom Udall, D-New Mex., said in a statement, “President Trump is bringing our nation to the brink of an illegal war with Iran without any congressional approval as required under the Constitution of the United States. Such a reckless escalation of hostilities is likely a violation of Congress’ war making authority – as well as our basing agreement with Iraq – putting U.S. forces and citizens in danger and very possibly sinking us into another disastrous war in the Middle East that the American people are not asking for and do not support.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31702/world-holds-its-breath-after-an-american-strike-in-iraq-kills-top-iranian-commander


Price of Oil

[gandul]

The Ayatollah has already declared him as a Islamic Revolutionary Martyr of the Jihad, and the country is in shock.

Trump has escalated Highway Patroller style so that people look elsewhere away from Ukraine investigation. He surely has avoided good advice of US intelligence, he probably distrusts it.

Hes a very dangerous idiot

[blumenkraft]

"You'll have to give me a few minutes" (to lists many US crime in the region going back decades)

[vox_mundi]

IN SEPTEMBER 2015, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump appeared on the syndicated radio show of conservative media star, Hugh Hewitt, to talk foreign policy.

“Are you familiar with General Suleimani?” Hewitt asked the real estate mogul from Queens.

“Yes,” said Trump, before hesitating. “Go ahead, give me a little … tell me.”

When Hewitt told Trump that Suleimani “runs the Quds Forces,” Trump responded: “I think the Kurds, by the way, have been horribly mistreated by us.”

“No, not the Kurds, the Quds Forces,” Hewitt interjected. “The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Quds Forces. The bad guys.”

“I thought you said Kurds,” a sheepish Trump replied.



https://theintercept.com/2020/01/03/four-years-ago-trump-had-no-clue-who-irans-suleimani-was-now-he-may-have-kicked-off-wwiii/

-------------------------

Three years later ...

The White House says not to expect a statement tonight, instead referring to the Pentagon, which said this strike was carried out at the direction of President Trump. The president hasn’t made any public appearances today, but was seen by CNN cameras on the golf course earlier.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1212934771153756161

---------------------------

... Based on past precedent, any Iranian response is likely to be asymmetric and carried out by proxy groups, and may also include physical or cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. To a degree not seen in years, U.S. personnel in Iraq (...or Europe, or South America) may now also be at risk. In the past, directly targeting U.S. troops in the country was seen as taboo given the longstanding Iranian goal of preventing escalation that could lead to all-out war. But with the conflict suddenly turning into a hot war with the top-ranking Iranian as a target, that may well change. The consequences could be painful for both sides.

https://theintercept.com/2020/01/03/qassim-suleimani-killing-iran-airstrike/

... and another report the shit-head probably didn't read ...

Infrastructure Council Warns Trump That Chance to Thwart a Cyber 9/11 ‘Is Closing Quickly’
https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/infrastructure-security/infrastructure-council-warns-trump-that-chance-to-thwart-a-cyber-9-11-is-closing-quickly/

The president’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council warned Donald Trump in a draft report this week that cyber threats need to be confronted with dire urgency, considering the grave risks posed to society’s most critical sectors from bad actors including Russia, China and Iran and the inability of private industry to fend off sophisticated attacks on their own.

... “U.S. companies find themselves on the front lines of a cyber war they are ill-equipped to win against nation-states intent on disrupting or destroying our critical infrastructure,” said the letter accompanying the draft report, before launching into bold-faced text again: “Bold action is needed to prevent the dire consequences of a catastrophic cyber attack on energy, communication, and financial infrastructures.”

“The nation is not sufficiently organized to counter the aggressive tactics used by our adversaries to infiltrate, map, deny, disrupt, and destroy sensitive cyber systems in the private sector.”

----------------------------

He got 'Impeachment' off the lede.

[gandul]

People saying around Trump promised war with Iran to an already dismissed Bolton so that he kept quiet wrt Ukraine, as the 'ultimate' quid-pro-quo. Doesn't sound like a stretched story to me...

[vox_mundi]

Nearly 3,000 troops from 82nd Airborne to be deployed to Middle East
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/03/iran-general-qassem-suleimani-killed-us-trump-drone-strike-baghdad-reaction-live-updates

Defense officials told the AP that nearly 3,000 more troops from the 82nd Airborne Division would be deployed to the Middle East amid fears of reprisals against the US for the killing of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani.

They are in addition to about 700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne who deployed to Kuwait earlier this week after the storming of the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad by Iran-backed militiamen and their supporters.

[Tom_Mazanec]

We’ve been doing this shit since at least the Spanish-American War.

[gandul]

We’ve been doing this shit since at least the Spanish-American War.

In that one you guys had vast superiority. Just needed a lie to start it. ‘Good job’ finishing what was left of Spanish Empire.

The US is super vulnerable right now in the Middle East. Few weeks ago impulsive Narciso was announcing reduction of US presence in the area (did so mainly to become the center of attention).
Now he practically declares war on Iran to create an opposite center of attention.

Not sure how the deplorables are going to take this on a months-scale basis, they were happy with the “bring my child home” Trump, not with the “we may need you” Uncle Sam

[vox_mundi]

Air Strikes Targeting Iraqi Militia Kill Six: Iraqi Army Source
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-blast-taji/air-strikes-targeting-iraqi-militia-kill-six-army-source-idUSKBN1Z229P

Airstrikes targeting Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces umbrella grouping of Iran-backed Shi’ite militias near camp Taji north of Baghdad have killed six people and critically wounded three, an Iraqi army source said late on Friday.

Two of the three vehicles making up a militia convoy were found burned, the source said, as well as six burned corpses. The strikes took place at 1.12am local time, he said

[sidd]

One voice i was waiting for was Sistani's, the preeminent Shia cleric outside Qom. He has now spoken:

"The vicious attack on Baghdad international airport last night is an insolent breach of Iraqi sovereignty and international agreements. It led to the killing of several commanders who defeated ISIS terrorists"

https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2064751/iraq-pm-sistani-warn-difficult-times-ahead-after-soleimani-killing

Looks like US troops will be evicted from iraq. Again.

sidd

[sidd]

Pompeo: U.S. citizens are safer
Pompeo's department: US citizens must flee Iraq

https://contemptor.com/2020/01/03/pompeo-says-americans-are-safer-as-us-embassy-urges-evacuation-of-iraq/

sidd

[sidd]

USA escalates: more airstrikes in Iraq

"killed at least six people early on Saturday, according to news reports, a day after an American drone attack killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/air-raid-targets-hashd-commander-iraq-state-tv-200103233605393.html

sidd

[sidd]

Iraq parliament builds consensus for expulsion of US troops:

"Together the two men could muster enough seats to pass legislation in parliament"

"at least 165 lawmakers must vote for a decision to be valid. "

"Sadr and Amiri together directly control 100 seats"

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iraq-security-blast-primeminister/rival-shiite-leaders-in-iraq-call-for-u-s-troop-expulsion-in-rare-show-of-unity-idUKKBN1Z20R7

sidd

[sidd]

USA now denies strike on hashd:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/air-raid-targets-hashd-commander-iraq-state-tv-200103233605393.html

Israelis ?

sidd

[Tom_Mazanec]

Two views:
War with Iran is impossible
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200104.htm#e200104

There will NOT be a war between American and Iran.
This is despite the fact that the media have been filled with screams by hysterical, apoplectic left-wing politicians who claim that we'll be at war by Monday. Any clash would fizzle quickly. Some have said that Trump will be involved in something worse than the Vietnam war and it would last for years. Such is the idiocy of the left. They should spend more time fantasizing about girls, rather than wars.
Almost all reporters and politicians making such claims are so ignorant that they couldn't find Iran on a map, and certainly know nothing about Iran's history.
As I described in my book on Iran, Iran's 1979 civil war was triggered generationally by the 1890 Tobacco Revolt, the 1905-09 Constitutional Revolution, and the 1963 White Revolution in which Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was exiled. During all this time, the UK, Russia and later America were bogeymen that various Iranian politicians blamed for their own failures.
As I described in my book on Iran, Iran suffered major humiliating defeats in nationalistic border wars during the 1800s. As a result, Iran takes pride in saying that it no longer invades anyone, and points to the Iran/Iraq war as a case where it was invaded.
However, under the insanity of the Islamic republic, Iran now serves its nationalistic drives not by invading anyone, but by funding other groups to conduct proxy wars, as previously described.
The problem is that, just as the 1800s border wars failed spectacularly, the new proxy war strategy is also failing spectacularly. Instead of getting soldiers killed in foreign wars, Iran is spending huge amounts of money to pay other groups to get their soldiers killed in proxy wars.
This has caused enormous economic problems in Iran, and a lot of people are furious at wasting money on the foreign proxy wars. But Iran's main problem is that the older generations have a hate-America foreign policy, while the younger generations love the West and America, and the size of the younger generations is growing every day.
Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Islamic Revolution civil war, combined with the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, and now the hardline geezers are paying the price for their democide policies following both those wars. Both Iran and Iraq are close to Awakening era climax events, and looks like the most likely result will be for Iraq to eject Iran, and for Iran to eject the hardline geezers. But this is speculation, and it remains to be seen.
However, one thing is certain: Iran cannot now abandon its centuries-old policy of avoiding foreign wars and sponsoring proxy wars.

War is certain:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/iran-has-crossed-all-the-red-lines-and-now-we-wait-for-the-war-to-begin

After the events that we witnessed on Tuesday, there will be no going back to the way things used to be.  A cataclysmic war in the Middle East is not going to benefit anyone, but at this point it is difficult to see how one will be avoided.  By directly attacking the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the Iranians and their allies crossed all the red lines.  The U.S. embassy is considered to be U.S. soil, and if President Trump does not respond militarily to this brazen attack on our sovereignty he is going to look like a total wimp to the rest of the world.  But then of course Iran and their allies will respond to the attack that Trump launches, and the U.S. will be forced to escalate the conflict even more.

[TerryM]

^^
Thanks Tom.
It was an assassination of course, but ordering assassinations around the world is what American Presidents do.


* A hot war with Iran isn't more likely next week than it was last week.
* A propaganda victory for Iran & a talking point for Democrats.


I'm unsure why Iran & why now, but we'll celebrate for a few days before settling back into the serious business of Impeaching the President because Pence is the President America can rally around.
Terry

[SteveMDFP]

Two views:
War with Iran is impossible
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200104.htm#e200104

There will NOT be a war between American and Iran...
But Iran's main problem is that the older generations have a hate-America foreign policy, while the younger generations love the West and America, and the size of the younger generations is growing every day.
Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Islamic Revolution civil war, combined with the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, and now the hardline geezers are paying the price for their democide policies following both those wars. Both Iran and Iraq are close to Awakening era climax events, and looks like the most likely result will be for Iraq to eject Iran, and for Iran to eject the hardline geezers. But this is speculation, and it remains to be seen.
However, one thing is certain: Iran cannot now abandon its centuries-old policy of avoiding foreign wars and sponsoring proxy wars.

Seems to me that this argument is wrong and irrelevant.  War between the US and Iran won't be a "foreign war" or "proxy war," it will be on Iranian soil.  Even youth, when one's homeland is attacked, will support a strong response.

The "war is inevitable" argument strikes me as more perceptive.  The day Trump tore up the nuclear accord, a trajectory towards war was started.  That trajectory isn't absolutely inevitable, but departing from this trajectory will require courageously restrained reactions.  Neither side is politically in a position domestically to be courageously restrained.

[TerryM]

<snipped>

The "war is inevitable" argument strikes me as more perceptive.  The day Trump tore up the nuclear accord, a trajectory towards war was started.  That trajectory isn't absolutely inevitable, but departing from this trajectory will require courageously restrained reactions.  Neither side is politically in a position domestically to be courageously restrained.

I think I understand your point.


The day anyone starts tossing nukes around is the day we begin the countdown. If the major powers engage we quit counting in months and weeks & count off the minutes and seconds remaining.


As I see it the US has squandered much of her technological edge, much of her financial clout, and many no longer follow her political lead - unless overtly threatened.
America somehow needs to re-shuffle the deck & some may see war with China/Russia/Iran as a way to escape the tumbling house of cards.


Will America accept her coming status as a faded/fading 2nd tier power, or will she kick over the table, shoot the dealer & dynamite the casino?


When Jr. "unsigned" the S.A.L.T. Treaty in 2002 the writing was on the wall. Bush flashed his hand and showed the world that if they didn't fold some of their winning hands, America was prepared to go rogue in the nastiest way possible.


Welcome to Cold War 2. This time we know who the crazy ones are.
Terry

[Florifulgurator]

"Isn't it pathetic?" -- Donald Trump 2011
"Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!" -- Donald Trump 2013
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/03/trump-obama-war-iran-093323

[sidd]

Thank you Mr. Manzanec. I now know never to read either generational dynamics or endoftheamerican dream.

sidd

[Tom_Mazanec]

Thank you Mr. Manzanec. I now know never to read either generational dynamics or endoftheamerican dream.

sidd

Well, one or the other will turn out right 
Don't read the economiccollapseblog either then, it is by the same guy as endotheamericandream.

[blumenkraft]

“Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist dictorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”


― Hermann Goering

[sidd]

Iraqi parliament votes to expel coalition: USA forces Iraq closer to Iran

“If Iraq is forced to choose between the two sides, more logically it’s the Iranians that would be the choice: They’ll always be there; the Americans won’t,”

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-01-04/as-iraq-reels-from-u-s-strikes-its-politicians-turn-against-washington

https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/america-thousands-soleimani.html

Sadr calls for "humiliating" expulsion:

https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/iraqs-sadr-calls-humiliating-us-troop-exit

sidd

[Pmt111500]

It looks like some of the stocks of some US military vendors have gone up, so it could be they need a way to empty their stocks somewhere. Using drug cartels as weapon buyers is of course possible but they have little need for aging antitank rocketry.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/soleimani-trump-iran-war-us-arms-company-stock-price-lockheed-martin-a9270426.html

[sidd]

Soleimani was on the way to meet Iraqi prime minister when hit:

"I was supposed to meet Soleimani at the morning the day he was killed, he came to deliver me a message from Iran responding to the message we delivered from Saudi to Iran"

"Soleimani was carrying a response from Iran to a Saudi initiative to diffuse tensions in the region. That came after Trump called the Iraqi PM and asked him to mediate."

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/iraqi-pm-says-he-was-schedule-to-meet-with-soleimani-the-morning-he-was-killed-20200105

That's a war crime called perfidy.  But after WMD in Iraq, torture, drone assasinations, what's new ?

sidd

[sidd]

Trump will sanction Iraq if USA kicked out:

"President Trump said Sunday that the United States would not leave Iraq on “friendly” terms and threatened to impose sanctions on the country if forced to withdraw American troops."

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/476869-trump-says-hell-sanction-iraq-if-us-troops-forced-to-leave

sidd

[sidd]

Trump reiterates threat to Iranian cultural sites:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/05/politics/trump-plane-iran-comments/index.html

If he hits Qom, full scale war.

sidd

[vox_mundi]

"No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.""
— James Madison, Political Observations letter, 1795

---------------------------------

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31744/confusion-swirls-over-leaked-notice-of-american-withdrawal-of-forces-from-iraq

In Letter, U.S. Military Tells Iraq It Will Withdraw
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1Z520A
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/06/794040457/u-s-informs-iraqi-government-about-repositioning-of-coalition-forces

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The United States military wrote to Iraq on Monday saying it would pull out of the country and would be repositioning forces over the next few days and weeks, a letter seen by Reuters showed.

It was not immediately clear if all roughly 5,000 U.S. troops would leave Iraq.

Several helicopters could be heard flying over Baghdad on Monday night. It was not immediately clear if this was a related development. The letter said coalition forces would be using helicopters to evacuate

"Sir, in deference to the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq, and as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister, CJTF-OIR will be repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement," read the letter.

It was signed by United States Marine Corps Brigadier General William H. Seely III, commanding general of Task Force Iraq, the U.S.-led military coalition against Islamic State

The authenticity of the letter, which was addressed to the Iraqi defense ministry's Combined Joint Operations Baghdad, was confirmed to Reuters independently by an Iraqi military source.

"We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure," it said.



-------------------------

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31744/confusion-swirls-over-leaked-notice-of-american-withdrawal-of-forces-from-iraq

Confusion Reigns: Pentagon Chief Denies U.S. Leaving Iraq
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/06/us-allies-trump-suleimani-killing-reaction-response
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1Z520A

BAGHDAD/DUBAI (Reuters) - The United States has no plans to pull American troops out of Iraq, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Monday, following reports by Reuters and other media of a U.S. military letter informing Iraq officials about the repositioning of troops in preparation to leave the country.

"There's been no decision whatsoever to leave Iraq," Esper told Pentagon reporters when asked about the letter, adding there were no plans issued to prepare to leave.

"I don't know what that letter is... We're trying to find out where that's coming from, what that is. But there's been no decision made to leave Iraq. Period."

... The letter was a poorly worded draft document meant only to underscore increase movement of U.S. forces, the top U.S. military officer told reporters.

"Poorly worded, implies withdrawal. That's not what's happening," U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, stressing there was no withdrawal being planned.



--------------------------

... the response of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was particularly striking, as he has been one of Trump’s staunchest supporters on the world stage.

He told a meeting of his security cabinet on Monday: “The assassination of Suleimani isn’t an Israeli event but an American event. We were not involved and should not be dragged into it.”

[sidd]

Nasrallah: only US military is justified target

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1213776667916800000.html

sidd

[sidd]

Hudson at counerpunch: de-dollarization, oil and war

"Isis, Al Quaeda in Iraq, Al Nusra and other divisions of what are actually America’s foreign legion"

"I sat in on discussions of this policy as it was formulated nearly fifty years ago "

"The actual context for the neocon’s action was the balance of payments, and the role of oil and energy as a long-term lever of American diplomacy."

"The problem facing America’s military strategists was how to continue supporting the 800 U.S. military bases around the world and allied troop support without losing America’s financial leverage."

"After 1971, foreign central banks had little option for what to do with their continuing dollar inflows except to recycle them to the U.S. economy by buying U.S. Treasury securities. The effect of U.S. foreign military spending thus did not undercut the dollar’s exchange rate, and did not even force the Treasury and Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to attract foreign exchange to offset the dollar outflows on military account. In fact, U.S. foreign military spending helped finance the domestic U.S. federal budget deficit."

"So maintaining the dollar as the world’s reserve currency became a mainstay of U.S. military spending. Foreign countries to not have to pay the Pentagon directly for this spending. They simply finance the U.S. Treasury and U.S. banking system."

"The great threat to this is dedollarization as China, Russia and other countries seek to avoid recycling dollars. "

"Oil is the key, because it is imported by U.S. companies at almost no balance-of-payments cost (the payments end up in the oil industry’s head offices here as profits and payments to management), while profits on U.S. oil company sales to other countries are remitted to the United States (via offshore tax-avoidance centers, mainly Liberia and Panama for many years). And as noted above, OPEC countries have been told to keep their official reserves in the form of U.S. securities (stocks and bonds as well as Treasury IOUs, but not direct purchase of U.S. companies being deemed economically important). Financially, OPEC countries are client slates of the Dollar Area."

" this is the only kind of war a democracy can fight – an air war, followed by a vicious terrorist army that makes up for the fact that no democracy can field its own army in today’s world. The corollary is that, terrorism has become the “democratic” mode of warfare."

"America WILL go to war, will fight Iran, will do anything at all to defend its control of Near Eastern oil and to dictate OPEC central bank policy, to defend its ISIS legions as if any opposition to this policy is an attack on the United States itself."

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/06/america-escalates-its-democratic-oil-war-in-the-near-east/

sidd

[sidd]

Ahmad at the national on US foreign policy: aggression and ignorance

" an "expert" is usually one who has not studied the region, and especially not in any academic capacity. As a result, they do not possess any significant knowledge of its languages, histories or cultures. They are often vetted by the market, having produced a bestselling book or secured a job as a journalist with a major newspaper. They are not necessarily tied to the "official" narratives or understandings, and can even be portrayed as being "a critic" of the official policy. In other words, this profile fits one who doesn't know enough."

"The realignment of expertise under Kissinger and, later, the Clinton Administration, eliminated those career foreign services officers who had lifelong attachments to the regions they covered. "

"British officers such as Richard F Burton or James Outram, who were regarded with suspicion for being too good with languages, travelling in disguise among the natives. "

" By the turn of the century, however, British high imperialism once again changed the character of knowledge gathering and the relationship of colonial power to the Indian landscape. The description gave way to the table."

"the progression from the ethnographic narrative to the data table, as the instrumentalisation of political and colonial power began to converge explicitly into a brute-force stratagem"

"There is no better way to do empire. The condition of asserting political and military will over a distant population is one that cannot sustain itself in any modern, liberal society. The efforts to understand, will inevitably lead to the understanding that the people of Afghanistan or Pakistan or Iraq desire the power to make their own decisions - without the imposition of governments or militaries sanctioned and placed from afar."

"The appeal of the drone's eye is precisely that it does not see everything, because it carries no understanding of the things it records. The experts who are required to imagine Afghanistan or Pakistan traverse those spaces in a manner similar to the drones, on their own preprogrammed missions where every little thing becomes a target on which to pin their policies."

https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/books/flying-blind-us-foreign-policy-s-lack-of-expertise-1.586006

sidd

[Pmt111500]

US troops designated as terrorists in Iran.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-parliament-designates-forces-terrorists-200107081230324.html

[vox_mundi]

Target-Rich Environment

For the record: U.S. troops are deployed to at least 11 Middle Eastern countries. The estimated figures include:

• Nearly 14,000 in Afghanistan;
• 13,000 in Kuwait, including a deployment of 3,500 troops announced by the Pentagon on Friday;
• 13,000 in Qatar;
• 7,000 in Bahrain;
• 6,000 in Iraq;
• 5,000 in the U.A.E.;
• 3,000 in Saudi Arabia;
• 3,000 in Jordan;
• 2,500 in Turkey;
• 800 in Syria;
• And 600 in Oman.

Total: almost 68,000 U.S. troops across the region.

An American General Probably Thinks- “Thanks Trump, for Putting a Target on My Back!”
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/01/05/american-general-probably-thinks-thanks-trump-putting-target-my-back

...As easy as it was for an American drone to blow up two vehicles in Soliemani’s convoy coming from the airport, it will not be difficult for Iranian forces to retaliate by targeting senior U.S. military and diplomatic officials. Senate Majority leader Mitchell McConnell’s comment that “our prayers are with U.S. diplomats and military in the region” is small consolation to those who will no doubt feel the brunt of Iranian ire over the assassination of one of the most popular leaders in Iran. 

... Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said, “Damn right, this puts our troops at risk.”  I think he realizes that he himself would be one of the first retaliatory targets.

------------------------------------

US Forces on High Alert for Possible Iranian Drone Attacks, and Intelligence Shows Iran Moving Military Equipment
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/us-iran-high-alert-drone-attacks/index.html

[Neven]

Caitlin Johnstone On The Idiotic Partisan Debate Over Regime Change In Iran Or Syria:

I love my job. Really, I do. But writing about US military agendas for a living often brings one into contact with such staggering stupidity that all you can do is pause and wonder how our species survived past the invention of the pointy stick.

By far the dumbest thing in all of US politics is the fact that Democrats tend to support regime change in Syria, while Republicans tend to support it more in Iran. I am not talking about the elected officials in those parties; I’m talking about the ordinary rank-and-file Joes and Janets who stand absolutely nothing to gain from toppling either Damascus or Tehran, but who have been brainwashed by lifelong media consumption into supporting one or the other anyway.

Whenever I write against the US government’s longstanding agenda to replace the leadership of Tehran with a compliant puppet regime, I know with absolute certainty that I’m going to spend the rest of my time online arguing with Trump supporters and lifelong Republicans. Whenever I write against the US government’s longstanding agenda to do the same in Syria, I know with absolute certainty that I’m going to be arguing predominantly with so-called centrist liberals.

At no time has this ever failed to occur.

I’ve spent the last few days arguing with Trump supporters who are telling me I’m crazy for not celebrating the death of an Iranian general they had no idea existed one week ago, and many of these pro bono State Department propagandists began following my work because they liked what I’ve been saying about Syria.

Conversely, all the fauxgressives and liberal interventionists who spent all last month telling me I’m a monster for writing about leaked OPCW documents showing we were lied to about an alleged 2018 chemical weapons incident have been staying out of my social media notifications completely these past four days.

It is truly bizarre. And it is truly, deeply, profoundly stupid.

It is truly, deeply and profoundly stupid because the agenda to topple Iran’s government and the agenda to topple Syria’s government are not two separate agendas. They are the same. Supporting one while opposing the other is like wanting to shoot someone in the head but being morally opposed to shooting them in the heart.

There's more...