Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)  (Read 234273 times)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1400 on: August 04, 2019, 09:47:25 PM »
Not only are Arctic wildfires currently burning out of control, but so are Indonesian wildfires, as discussed by the linked article:

Title: "Indonesia sends thousands of security personnel to combat forest fires"

http://news.trust.org/item/20190731104341-l37a1/

Extract: "Fires Indonesian farmers use to clear land during the dry season can rage out of control, bringing a choking haze that can affect neighbours such as Singapore and Malaysia.

Drought has hit large parts of the archipelago as a mild El Nino weather pattern disrupts the dry season, weather officials say, with its peak now expected to run from mid-August to mid-September.

The number of hot spots has been increasing, with 124 intense enough to suggest fires detected nationwide by Wednesday morning, said Agus Wibowo, a spokesman for the National Disaster Mitigation Agency."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1401 on: August 04, 2019, 09:54:25 PM »
We would all do well to remember that the introduction of large volumes of meltwater from Greenland into the North Atlantic serves to slow the flow rate of the MOC; which means that tropical SSTs will increase more rapidly (with continued global warming); which will result in higher values for ECS:

Title: "The Greenland ice sheet poured 197 billion tons of water into the North Atlantic in July alone"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/01/greenland-ice-sheet-poured-billion-tons-water-into-north-atlantic-july-alone/?utm_term=.e8000f28d8e5

Extract: "An extraordinary melt event that began earlier this week continued through August 1 on the Greenland ice sheet, and there are signs that about 60 percent of the expansive ice cover saw detectable surface melting, including at higher elevations that only rarely see temperatures climb above freezing."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1402 on: August 04, 2019, 10:00:45 PM »
Charred forests in the Pacific Northwest are not growing back as quickly as expected by consensus climate scientists.  This means that the positive feedback associated with such wildfires is stronger than assumed by consensus climate scientists:

Title: "Charred forests not growing back as expected in Pacific Northwest, researchers say"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/charred-forests-not-growing-back-as-expected-in-pacific-northwest-researchers-say-1.5225825

Extract: " With more grasslands dispersed through the province, the forests' ability to sequester carbon from the atmosphere is hampered, they said.

"We can get unhealthier forests, and [they are] not going to grow as well, and going to provide potentially a positive feedback loop for climate change," said Aitken."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1403 on: August 05, 2019, 04:26:44 PM »
Joëlle Gergis is a lead author for the upcoming AR6, and thus her linked article offers some insight on the leading-edge of consensus climate science thinking.  Unfortunately, even such 'leading-edge' consensus climate science underestimates the climate risks associated with such issues as: a) MICI-driven ice-climate feedbacks; b) potential changes in the stratospheric ozone layer, c) cascades of tipping points, leading to potential changes in climate state; and d) probable anthropogenic actions that could make global warming worse than expected.

Title: "The terrible truth of climate change", by Joëlle Gergis

https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/august/1566136800/jo-lle-gergis/terrible-truth-climate-change

Extract: "When the IPCC’s fifth assessment report was published in 2013, it estimated that such a doubling of CO2 was likely to produce warming within the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C as the Earth reaches a new equilibrium. However, preliminary estimates calculated from the latest global climate models (being used in the current IPCC assessment, due out in 2021) are far higher than with the previous generation of models. Early reports are predicting that a doubling of CO2 may in fact produce between 2.8 and 5.8°C of warming. Incredibly, at least eight of the latest models produced by leading research centres in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and France are showing climate sensitivity of 5°C or warmer.

When these results were first released at a climate modelling workshop in March this year, a flurry of panicked emails from my IPCC colleagues flooded my inbox. What if the models are right? Has the Earth already crossed some kind of tipping point? Are we experiencing abrupt climate change right now?

In 2017, we reached 1°C of warming above global pre-industrial conditions. According to the UN Environment Programme’s “Emissions Gap Report”, released in November 2018, current unconditional NDCs will see global average temperature rise by 2.9 to 3.4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.

Increasingly after my speaking events, I catch myself unexpectedly weeping in my hotel room or on flights home. Every now and then, the reality of what the science is saying manages to thaw the emotionally frozen part of myself I need to maintain to do my job.

Although the very foundation of human civilisation is at stake, the world is on track to seriously overshoot our UN targets. Worse still, global carbon emissions are still rising. In response, scientists are prioritising research on how the planet has responded during other warm periods in the Earth’s history."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1404 on: August 05, 2019, 04:42:12 PM »
Many/most people think of Arctic Amplification merely as the ratio of the mean Arctic surface temperature anomaly (north of 65o North) to the GMSTA.  While the attached figure confirms that well know fact that this ratio is currently about two; here I note that this image also indicates that the variability of Arctic surface temperature anomalies have also increased in recent decades; which supports the belief that climate sensitivity has also be increasing in recent decades:

Edit: Note that the Arctic Circle runs 66.56083 degrees north of the Equator.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 04:59:56 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1405 on: August 05, 2019, 06:54:40 PM »
Per the linked article, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Program indicates that July 2019 either slightly exceeded, or was equal to, the record for the warmest month of July in the recorded record:

Title: "Another exceptional month for global average temperatures"

https://climate.copernicus.eu/another-exceptional-month-global-average-temperatures

Extract: "Every month in 2019 has ranked among the four warmest for the month in question, and June was the warmest June ever recorded. It is now confirmed that July was also an exceptional month.

The global average temperature for July 2019 was on a par with, and possibly marginally higher than, that of July 2016, which followed an El Niño event. This was previously the warmest July and warmest month of all on record. However, the difference between temperatures in July 2019 and July 2016 is small."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 864
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 5685
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1406 on: August 05, 2019, 07:20:16 PM »
<snip>
Increasingly after my speaking events, I catch myself unexpectedly weeping in my hotel room or on flights home. Every now and then, the reality of what the science is saying manages to thaw the emotionally frozen part of myself I need to maintain to do my job.

Although the very foundation of human civilisation is at stake, the world is on track to seriously overshoot our UN targets. Worse still, global carbon emissions are still rising. In response, scientists are prioritising research on how the planet has responded during other warm periods in the Earth’s history."
I think this piece is important. Thanks ASLR.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1407 on: August 05, 2019, 09:14:40 PM »
When considering how much Arctic Amplification may increase in the coming decades, one should remember to consider the darkening of both glacial, and sea, ice due to the projected nonlinear increases of algae in the Arctic with continued warming:

Christopher J. Williamson et al. (04 April 2019), "Glacier Algae: A Dark Past and a Darker Future", Front. Microbiol., https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2019.00524

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2019.00524/full

Abstract: "“Glacier algae” grow on melting glacier and ice sheet surfaces across the cryosphere, causing the ice to absorb more solar energy and consequently melt faster, while also turning over carbon and nutrients. This makes glacier algal assemblages, which are typically dominated by just three main species, a potentially important yet under-researched component of the global biosphere, carbon, and water cycles. This review synthesizes current knowledge on glacier algae phylogenetics, physiology, and ecology. We discuss their significance for the evolution of early land plants and highlight their impacts on the physical and chemical supraglacial environment including their role as drivers of positive feedbacks to climate warming, thereby demonstrating their influence on Earth’s past and future. Four complementary research priorities are identified, which will facilitate broad advances in glacier algae research, including establishment of reliable culture collections, sequencing of glacier algae genomes, development of diagnostic biosignatures for remote sensing, and improved predictive modeling of glacier algae biological-albedo effects."

&

L. Tedesco M. Vichi and E. Scoccimarro (08 May 2019), "Sea-ice algal phenology in a warmer Arctic", Science Advances, Vol. 5, no. 5, eaav4830, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav4830

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/5/eaav4830

Abstract: "The Arctic sea-ice decline is among the most emblematic manifestations of climate change and is occurring before we understand its ecological consequences. We investigated future changes in algal productivity combining a biogeochemical model for sympagic algae with sea-ice drivers from an ensemble of 18 CMIP5 climate models. Model projections indicate quasi-linear physical changes along latitudes but markedly nonlinear response of sympagic algae, with distinct latitudinal patterns. While snow cover thinning explains the advancement of algal blooms below 66°N, narrowing of the biological time windows yields small changes in the 66°N to 74°N band, and shifting of the ice seasons toward more favorable photoperiods drives the increase in algal production above 74°N. These diverse latitudinal responses indicate that the impact of declining sea ice on Arctic sympagic production is both large and complex, with consequent trophic and phenological cascades expected in the rest of the food web."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1408 on: August 06, 2019, 02:24:08 AM »
It likely will be difficult for countries to leave Arctic oil & gas reserves untapped:

......... Russia had just laid claim to the vast oil and gas reserves contained in this underwater turf.

Russia's dramatic show of power had no legal weight — .........

China's claim to islands in the South China Sea has no legal weight, but they are still there, building airfields and naval bases and scaring off fishermen from the Phillipines and Indonesia. 

It's nasty but true, might is right and possession is nine tenths of the law.
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1409 on: August 06, 2019, 04:35:18 PM »
If consensus climate science cannot figure-out Earth's Systems fast enough, then they should increase their margins of uncertainties that they report for their projections for 2100:

Title: "Global sea level rise began accelerating ‘30 years earlier’ than previously thought"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-sea-level-rise-began-accelerating-30-years-earlier-than-previously-thought

Extract: "Global sea level rise began to accelerate in the 1960s, 30 years earlier than suggested by previous assessments, a new study finds."

See also:

Dangendorf, S. et al. (2019) Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s, Nature Climate Change; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0531-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=pSY-V7b7o4cU8TLtWYDml9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0POF4mAz6W3bjTqsiopGrbvEY-iI3I8EWAjZtfQayJrIvMt0tDOoNrzBNPOP_S_mQqdRkgecvmppnhmBSt3G6jUOH9PWBDY3zD3UHfeeVoljkaZhWFZCLdX2ml3RANT0PnGPuhz_Oc6fPx72x5syqVv8ZL4jQ6P_3HofMncwDaHIGY5rmK40hU2NTGwD2T5YH4GoyiAKMxw_U8mZEmQT0hG5bSst0WVppgLhrB5O4TNsgk-lLGdZFwFxiQjTjSLRUaiupoc4SUQfQVVlywtGpWQ&tracking_referrer=www.carbonbrief.org
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1410 on: August 07, 2019, 04:28:47 AM »
We should all remember that a potential ice apocalypse will not happen in a vacuum and that other Overshoot factors like the pending insect apocalypse with both threaten food supplies and also act as a positive feedback factor for global warming due to the associated potential degradation of flowering plants:

Michael DiBartolomeis, Susan Kegley, Pierre Mineau, Rosemarie Radford and Kendra Klein (August 6, 2019), "An assessment of acute insecticide toxicity loading (AITL) of chemical pesticides used on agricultural land in the United States", PLOS One, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220029

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0220029

Abstract: "We present a method for calculating the Acute Insecticide Toxicity Loading (AITL) on US agricultural lands and surrounding areas and an assessment of the changes in AITL from 1992 through 2014. The AITL method accounts for the total mass of insecticides used in the US, acute toxicity to insects using honey bee contact and oral LD50 as reference values for arthropod toxicity, and the environmental persistence of the pesticides. This screening analysis shows that the types of synthetic insecticides applied to agricultural lands have fundamentally shifted over the last two decades from predominantly organophosphorus and N-methyl carbamate pesticides to a mix dominated by neonicotinoids and pyrethroids. The neonicotinoids are generally applied to US agricultural land at lower application rates per acre; however, they are considerably more toxic to insects and generally persist longer in the environment. We found a 48- and 4-fold increase in AITL from 1992 to 2014 for oral and contact toxicity, respectively. Neonicotinoids are primarily responsible for this increase, representing between 61 to nearly 99 percent of the total toxicity loading in 2014. The crops most responsible for the increase in AITL are corn and soybeans, with particularly large increases in relative soybean contributions to AITL between 2010 and 2014. Oral exposures are of potentially greater concern because of the relatively higher toxicity (low LD50s) and greater likelihood of exposure from residues in pollen, nectar, guttation water, and other environmental media. Using AITL to assess oral toxicity by class of pesticide, the neonicotinoids accounted for nearly 92 percent of total AITL from 1992 to 2014. Chlorpyrifos, the fifth most widely used insecticide during this time contributed just 1.4 percent of total AITL based on oral LD50s. Although we use some simplifying assumptions, our screening analysis demonstrates an increase in pesticide toxicity loading over the past 26 years, which potentially threatens the health of honey bees and other pollinators and may contribute to declines in beneficial insect populations as well as insectivorous birds and other insect consumers."

See also:

Title: "Insect 'apocalypse' in U.S. driven by 50x increase in toxic pesticides"

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/insect-apocalypse-under-way-toxic-pesticides-agriculture/

Extract: "America’s agricultural landscape is now 48 times more toxic to honeybees, and likely other insects, than it was 25 years ago, almost entirely due to widespread use of so-called neonicotinoid pesticides, according to a new study published today in the journal PLOS One."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1411 on: August 07, 2019, 06:40:23 PM »

The linked reference indicates that when correctly modeled, upper troposphere tropical warming (UTW) reinforces Arctic Amplification (AA), via the polar stratosphere.  Which implies that projected climate sensitivity is greater when this 'tug-of-war' is modeled correctly than when not modeled correctly:

Yannick Peings et al. (01 August 2019), "The polar stratosphere as an arbiter of the projected tropical versus polar tug‐of‐war", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082463

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082463?af=R

Abstract
This study explores the "tug‐of‐war" between the effects of Arctic Amplification ("AA") and upper‐troposphere tropical warming ("UTW") on the response of the future North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. Late‐21st‐century AA and UTW temperature anomalies are imposed in a high‐top atmospheric model by nudging the temperature. Two sets of experiments are performed, with and without feedback of the polar stratosphere to highlight its role in the response to UTW, AA and both combined. With interactive polar stratosphere, UTW forces an equatorward shift of the eddy‐driven jet that reinforces the response to AA. However, when the polar stratosphere feedback is suppressed, the response to UTW is opposite and reflects the previously identified tug‐of‐war between the effects of UTW and AA in mid‐latitudes. This study highlights that the polar stratosphere is a key component for future changes in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, and that it must be accurately represented in climate change scenarios.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1412 on: August 07, 2019, 06:52:19 PM »
This linked reference indicates that positive feedback of methane emissions from wetlands is stronger than assumed in the RCP scenarios:

N Gedney, C Huntingford, E Comyn-Platt and A Wiltshire (2 August 2019), "Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, Number 8, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2726

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2726

Abstract
Emissions from wetlands are the single largest source of the atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) methane (CH4). This may increase in a warming climate, leading to a positive feedback on climate change. For the first time, we extend interactive wetland CH4 emissions schemes to include the recently quantified, significant process of CH4 transfer through tropical trees. We constrain the parameterisations using a multi-site flux study, and biogeochemical and inversion models. This provides an estimate and uncertainty range in contemporary, large-scale wetland emissions and their response to temperature. To assess the potential for future wetland CH4 emissions to feedback on climate, the schemes are forced with simulated climate change using a 'pattern-scaling' system, which links altered atmospheric radiative forcing to meteorology changes. We perform multiple simulations emulating 34 Earth System Models over different anthropogenic GHG emissions scenarios (RCPs). We provide a detailed assessment of the causes of uncertainty in predicting wetland CH4–climate feedback. Despite the constraints applied, uncertainty from wetland CH4 emission modelling is greater that from projected climate spread (under a given RCP). Limited knowledge of contemporary global wetland emissions restricts model calibration, producing the largest individual cause of wetland parameterisation uncertainty. Wetland feedback causes an additional temperature increase between 0.6% and 5.5% over the 21st century, with a feedback on climate ranging from 0.01 to 0.11 Wm−2 K−1. Wetland CH4 emissions amplify atmospheric CH4 increases by up to a further possible 25.4% in one simulation, and reduce remaining allowed anthropogenic emissions to maintain the RCP2.6 temperature threshold by 8.0% on average.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1413 on: August 07, 2019, 07:46:56 PM »
The linked reference finds that the IPCC has seriously underestimated the direct radiative forcing from black carbon (BC):

Xinyi Dong et al. (27 February 2019), "Evaluating Recent Updated Black Carbon Emissions and Revisiting the Direct Radiative Forcing in Arctic", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081242

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081242

Abstract
There is significant uncertainty in the global inventory of black carbon (BC). Several recent studies have reported BC emission updates, including the Fire Emission Inventory‐northern Eurasia, anthropogenic emission in Russia, and global natural gas flaring. Compared with the inventory used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these updates are only 10% higher on a global scale but are 3 times greater than previous estimations in Arctic (60–90°N). We applied GEOS‐Chem to examine these emission updates and evaluate their impacts on direct forcing. We found that Fire Emission Inventory‐northern Eurasia may be substantially overestimated, Russia shows no prominent influence on simulation, and natural gas flaring noticeably improves simulation performance in the Arctic. Model estimated direct forcing of BC is increased by 30% on the global scale and is 2 times higher in the Arctic through application of these emission updates. This study reveals the urgent need to improve the reliability of emission inventories in the high latitudes, especially over Eurasia.

Plain Language Summary
Recent black carbon (BC) emission updates suggest a substantially higher inventory than that used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Through GEOS‐Chem modeling, we found that the Fire Emission Inventory‐northern Eurasia biomass burning emission is overestimated over northern Eurasia, likely due to employment of U.S. plants species‐based emission factors. Russian anthropogenic and natural gas flaring inventories help improve simulation performance in the Arctic. Model estimated direct forcing of BC is doubled when applying these emission updates, indicating the urgent need to further validate and improve the BC emission inventory.

Edit: Many individuals ignore the influence of black carbon (BC) because as shown in the attached image, AR5 combines the relatively large positive radiative forcing from BC together with the significant negative radiative forcing from biomass burning to cite a relatively small net positive radiative forcing.  However, this new research shows that the positive radiative forcing from BC is significantly higher than AR5 assumed, while the negative radiative forcing from biomass burning has not changed; which explains why the newly estimated net radiative forcing for BC increases so much.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 04:29:07 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1414 on: August 08, 2019, 04:47:39 PM »
As part of the consequences of an ice apocalypse is associated with the risks of socio-economic collapse, I cite the linked article on the new IPCC's special report on climate change and land, as it discusses the cascading risks of land use on the sustainability of our socio-economic systems (like food production) with continuing global warming:

Title: "In-depth Q&A: The IPCC’s special report on climate change and land"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-special-report-on-climate-change-and-land

Extract: "This morning in Geneva, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its special report on climate change and land.

The land provides the “food, feed, fibre, fuel and freshwater” without which human society and its economy “could not exist”, the report says. This provision is under threat from rising global temperatures and “unprecedented” rates of land and freshwater exploitation in recent decades, the report warns.

The full title of the report gives an indication of the catalogue of interlinked and overlapping issues it covers, including “climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems”.

The land report is the second special report that the IPCC is due to publish this year. The second – on oceans and the cryosphere – is due in September this year. The IPCC also published a special report on 1.5C of warming in October 2018."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1415 on: August 11, 2019, 11:14:49 AM »
The linked article indicates that just because a country (like India) is accelerating its use of renewable energy, does not mean that its GHG emissions are being reduced:

Title: "India expects coal-fired power capacity to grow 22% in 3 years"

http://news.trust.org/item/20190731133649-zkxm6/

Extract: "India's coal-fired power generation capacity is expected to rise by 22.4% in three years, the federal power ministry's chief engineer said on Wednesday, potentially neutralising its efforts to cut emissions by boosting adoption of renewable energy.

India, the third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, saw its annual coal demand rise 9.1% to nearly 1 billion tonnes in the year ended March 2019. Coal demand from utilities accounted for over three-quarters of total consumption."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1416 on: August 11, 2019, 11:26:51 AM »
New CESM2 runs are indicating that the most likely value for ECS is 5.3C:

A. Gettelman et al. (16 July 2019), "High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083978

Abstract: "The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long‐term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5–4.5 K, is plausible."

See also:

Title: "New Models Point to More Global Warming Than We Expected"

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Models-Point-More-Global-Warming-We-Expected

Extract: "Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected.

One of the new models, the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), saw a 35% increase in its equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the rise in global temperature one might expect as the atmosphere adjusts to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Instead of the model’s previous ECS of 4°C (7.2°F), the CESM2 now shows an ECS of 5.3°C (9.5°F)."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1417 on: August 11, 2019, 07:16:30 PM »
Some consensus climate scientists like to focus on paleoclimate responses averaged over millenia to provide decision makers with a sense of comfort that Earth Systems will not change rapidly (on the order of decades) due to anthropogenic radiative forcing.  However, the linked article about new research on the nature of the last magnetic pole flip indicates that while this last flip ultimately took about 22,000 years to reach a new equilibrium, over that entire 22,000-year period very (incredibly) rapid fluctuations were occurring, and I suspect that our current socio-economic systems would not deal well with such fluctuations.

Title: "The last magnetic pole flip saw 22,000 years of weirdness"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/08/the-last-magnetic-pole-flip-saw-22000-years-of-weirdness/

Extract: "The records come from lavas in Chile and the islands of Tahiti, Guadeloupe, La Palma, and Maui. All of them have been studied previously for tracking the history of our magnetic field, as they host multiple lava flows that each provide a snapshot around the time of the reversal. But the method used to date these rocks—based on isotopes of the element argon, which gets trapped in crystals as they solidify—has been improved enough over the last few years that the rocks were worth revisiting to get more accurate dates for each flow. The new measurements come with error bars in the neighborhood of just ±5,000 years for 780,000-year-old lavas.

The new dates help lay out an interesting timeline. Although individual records in some places have seemed to record an incredibly rapid reversal of the poles, these lavas show a complex process playing out over something like 22,000 years."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 864
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 5685
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1418 on: August 11, 2019, 07:25:51 PM »
Thank you for the updates ASLR.

Keeling curve, Paleo, ECS 5.3, add some of the many positive feedbacks and perhaps a hyperthermal is on the horizon. All ice will be gone.
Peter Wadhams was likely right: Farewell to ice. (He didn't write 'arctic sea-ice' but 'ice')
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1419 on: August 12, 2019, 01:01:51 AM »

 All ice will be gone.
Peter Wadhams was likely right: Farewell to ice. (He didn't write 'arctic sea-ice' but 'ice')

Definitely, consensus climate scientists know about the risks of cryosphere feedbacks, but as they are hesitant to try to quantify the strength of those primarily positive feedbacks, they address these risks with caveats and footnotes that decision makers ignore:

Title: "IPCC report fails to address ‘known unknowns’, climate groups claim"

https://www.siliconrepublic.com/innovation/ipcc-report-problems

Extract: "However, according to The Guardian, some climate scientists and groups have criticised it, not for its base claim, but the fact that it hasn’t gone far enough. The key problem, they said, is that it does not address the ‘known unknowns’, which are unforeseen tipping points that could have even more drastic effects in years to come.

For example, some of the issues the report didn’t describe in depth include the issue of water vapour trapping heat in Earth’s atmosphere, the loss of polar ice and the major migration of tropical clouds into the polar regions.

Dreaded feedback loops could also occur, where melting sea ice reveals darker, heat-absorbing water that triggers further warming in a continuous cycle.

The danger of feedback loops

The Grantham Institute’s Bob Ward highlighted one noticeable oversight. “The IPCC summary for policymakers only mentions the west Antarctica and Greenland tipping points, which we may already have reached,” he said.

“The underlying report suggests that the other tipping points are too poorly understood, or not likely to be triggered until higher amounts of warming – but, given their consequences, one would expect a more risk-based approach. That is, you don’t ignore them until you know them to be impossible.”

Further damage could be caused by melting permafrost, believed to contain vast amounts of the highly polluting gas methane, considerably more destructive to our atmosphere than CO2."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

RoxTheGeologist

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 470
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 130
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1420 on: August 12, 2019, 02:02:06 AM »
New CESM2 runs are indicating that the most likely value for ECS is 5.3C:

Oh S**t.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1421 on: August 12, 2019, 02:36:28 AM »
I suspect that our current socio-economic systems would not deal well with such fluctuations.

Come on, it'll be fine. Look how well we're already responding to bottom-of-curve changes...  :P

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1422 on: August 13, 2019, 02:25:43 AM »
I suspect that our current socio-economic systems would not deal well with such fluctuations.

Come on, it'll be fine. Look how well we're already responding to bottom-of-curve changes...  :P

It seems to me that decision makers are acting like a herd of deer in an on-coming truck's headlights, and that current consensus climate scientists are suffering from paralysis by analysis ... :P
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1423 on: August 13, 2019, 03:06:17 AM »
Indecisive, inactive, unintelligent.... the governments of today

GrauerMausling

  • New ice
  • Posts: 14
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1424 on: August 13, 2019, 06:38:29 AM »
This is just a reminder that the early CMIP6 evaluations of ECS have come in at a likely range of from 2.8C to 5.8C; and that these CMIP6 projection ignore the potential ice-climate feedbacks from a possible MICI-type of collapse of the WAIS beginning in the coming decades:



Is there an easy calculation to find out what the remaining carbon budget for an 1.5 and 2 °C world would be based on the different ECSs?

I assume that we already logged in a more than 2 °C increase with the current CO2 level in case of an ECS of 5.8, correct?

JMP

  • New ice
  • Posts: 83
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1425 on: August 13, 2019, 07:39:49 AM »
I suspect that our current socio-economic systems would not deal well with such fluctuations.

Come on, it'll be fine. Look how well we're already responding to bottom-of-curve changes...  :P

It seems to me that decision makers are acting like a herd of deer in an on-coming truck's headlights, and that current consensus climate scientists are suffering from paralysis by analysis ... :P

Yes, except deer are innocent creatures and our leaders are not. 
In our version of this the deer/decision makers will safely wander off to their summer homes paid for by the truck drivers - while it's the herd that suffers on the road.  Surely we do not need to pretend that the decision makers wide eyed innocence is anything but contrived.  If they do not have the best information then that is only their willful ignorance. We must hold our leaders accountable. 

Sorry that this is further off topic - I know. 

*gestures like a magician*  Ohhh look - An article:
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-arctic-ice-loss-giant-south.html
 

« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 08:43:47 AM by JMP »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1426 on: August 13, 2019, 04:30:53 PM »
It is logical that an increase in Arctic lighting strikes would increase the risk of Arctic wildfires; which should increase Arctic Amplification, and the linked article indicates that the number of Arctic lighting strikes has increased dramatically this summer, most likely due the current low Arctic sea ice extents.  However, as there is not sufficient statistical data gathered of this relatively recent increase in Arctic lighting strikes, consensus climate science projections do not include this phenomenon.  This illustrates that consensus climate science will never identify the true risks associated with a cascade of climate tipping points, as they have never seen such phenomena and thus will not correctly model the rate of nonlinearity of increase of strengthening of such positive feedback mechanisms.  The correct way to deal with this is for consensus climate sciences to run their models as best they know how and then to separately estimate for decision makers the climate risks of phenomena that their projections do not account for.

Title: "Why Lightning Strikes in an Arctic Gone Bizarro"

https://www.wired.com/story/why-lightning-strikes-in-an-arctic-gone-bizarro/

Extract: "The Arctic is supposed to be cold, of course, making thunderstorms—much less the dozens, perhaps hundreds of strikes that materialized near the north pole over the weekend—a rarity. But no longer. The region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and this summer in particular has brought record-breaking heat. A lack of sea ice means more water is exposed to the sun, which means more moisture rises, forming thunderstorms. “The probability of this kind of event occurring would increase as the sea ice extent retreats farther and farther north in the summertime,” says Alex Young, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska.

This summer, the drier, warmer Arctic has been burning to an unprecedented degree, which raises the question of whether more frequent thunderstorms might spark more wildfires, releasing still more carbon into the atmosphere… making for yet more warming. Swain says the phenomenon is too new to say for sure."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1427 on: August 13, 2019, 05:43:30 PM »
Previously, some consensus climate scientists had stated that no proof had yet been provided that the relatively recent increase in upwelling of warm CDW into the Amundsen Sea was related to anthropogenic forcing.  Now the linked reference provides evidence of such a link related to the increase in anthropogenic GHG emissions; however, I believe that more work is needed to better quantify the influence of the Antarctic Ozone Hole.

Paul R. Holland et al. (2019), "West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing", Nature Geoscience, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0420-9

Abstract: "Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean variability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1428 on: August 14, 2019, 05:15:18 AM »
Indecisive, inactive, unintelligent.... the governments of today

No, they are decisive enough to shift the funding to fossil fuels when they can.  They are active enough to approve new coal mines every chance they get.  They are intelligent enough to know that millions will come their way from the fossil fuel barons (not naming names but cough, cough, Koch, Koch).

They just don't care about the future beyond their own very limited 3 or 4 year election cycle.

And the voting public get the politicians they deserve.  A majority may want more action on renewable power and fewer coal-fired power stations, but that same majority gives a much higher priority to a tax break on their real estate investments. That's what we can learn from the recent Australian federal election anyway.
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1429 on: August 15, 2019, 12:14:06 AM »
The ozone hole has caused upper and middle stratospheric cooling which has contributed to the tightening of winds around Antarctica that led to the upwelling of CDW.

Of course, there are many other variables, but the damage to the ozone layer has cooled the stratosphere at both poles in the months of polar daylight.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1430 on: August 15, 2019, 01:32:30 PM »
It bears repeating (as James Hansen pointed this response years ago) that for the past several decades 'global greening' has been partially masking the true value of climate sensitivity; but that coming stress from continuing anthropogenic forcing will likely lead to a reverse of 'global greening'; which, will increase the value of climate sensitivity in the coming decades:

Title: "Rising water stress could counteract ‘global greening’, study says"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/rising-water-stress-could-counteract-global-green-study-says

Extract: "The findings suggest that, in the future, the ability of plants to absorb the CO2 emitted by humans may be “substantially reduced”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief.

At present, the land takes in 30% of the greenhouse gases emitted by humans, according to a recent landmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The findings “do a credible job of bringing the increasing water stress on plants to the fore”, another plant scientist tells Carbon Brief."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1431 on: August 15, 2019, 02:28:47 PM »
The article assumes that all the water stress arising from saturated atmospheric water vapor.  Most plants receive water through their root systems.

Mozi

  • New ice
  • Posts: 45
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1432 on: August 15, 2019, 02:41:01 PM »
You didn't read the article. It is about how an increased vapor pressure deficit causes more water to be lost through the leaves, which causes plants to close their stomata to prevent water loss, which in turn reduces the amount of photosynthesis that takes place, so they grow more slowly. Nothing about the amount of water in total available to the plant.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3041
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 361
  • Likes Given: 187
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1433 on: August 17, 2019, 05:15:22 PM »
cross post (highlight added):  things are sometimes worse then modeled!
The water in Alaska is so hot it is kiling salmon

Scientists have observed die-offs of several varieties of Alaskan salmon, including sockeye, chum and pink salmon. ... They looked for signs of lesions, parasites and infections, but came up empty. Nearly all the salmon they found had "beautiful eggs still inside them," she said. Because the die-off coincided with the heat wave, they concluded that heat stress was the cause of the mass deaths.

...

The water temperatures have breaking records at the same time as the air temperatures, according to Sue Mauger, the science director for the Cook Inletkeeper.
Scientists have been tracking stream temperatures around the Cook Inlet, located south of Anchorage, since 2002. They've never recorded a temperature above 76 degrees Fahrenheit. Until now.
On July 7, a major salmon stream on the west side of the Cook Inlet registered 81.7 degrees.
Mauger said she and her team published a study in 2016, creating models outlining moderate and pessimistic projections for how climate change would drive temperatures in Alaska's streams.
"2019 exceeded the value we expected for the worst-case scenario in 2069," she said.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/08/16/us/alaska-salmon-hot-water-trnd/index.html
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1434 on: August 17, 2019, 11:15:32 PM »
The research discussed in the linked article identifies recent fracking operations in the US and Canada is largely to blame for recent rapid increases of methane concentrations in the atmosphere:

Title: "Fracking Boom in US and Canada Largely to Blame for 'Massive' Rise of Global Methane Levels: Study"

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/08/14/fracking-boom-us-and-canada-largely-blame-massive-rise-global-methane-levels-study

Extract: "New research by a scientist at Cornell University warns that the fracking boom in the U.S. and Canada over the past decade is largely to blame for a large rise in methane in the Earth's atmosphere—and that reducing emissions of the extremely potent greenhouse gas is crucial to help stem the international climate crisis.

Professor Robert Howarth examined hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, over the past several decades, noting the fracking boom that has taken place since the first years of the 21st century. Between 2005 and 2015, fracking went from producing 31 billion cubic meters of shale gas per year to producing 435 billion cubic meters.

Nearly 90 percent of that fracking took place in the U.S., while about 10 percent was done in Canada."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 272
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1435 on: August 17, 2019, 11:41:18 PM »
cross post (highlight added):  things are sometimes worse then modeled!
I think sometimes can replaced by usually.

It is just hard to accurately model the whole planet with many missing variables (trouble with clouds and many other things we just had not thought of before).

Once serious trouble in the Arctic was expected in the 2040s and nobody thought much about antarctica. Seemed to gain mass so probably ok for a long time after 2040.

Well that did not turn out to be true on both ends and i really can´t think of an example of a model that predicted things to be way worse.

First we are using a broad brush but we are painting the picture with missing details. So we did not know how warm the cold water coming up near the glaciers was or their topography which is relevant or the way they collapse.

And i think that rate of change is also doing something, maybe especially on land.

There was an interesting discussion in the science subforum about Tietsche et all 2011 and i read that paper then actually looked up the paper on the model they used. Lots of stuff in there. Quite detailed but so much is not in there.

The model mainly does land surface and temperatures and water level.

Every 20 years between 1980 and 2060, three such experiments are started in consecutive years (e.g., 2019,2020, 2021), so that we can analyze five different time slices with a three-member ensemble each.


What the model does not see is all the damage we do in the meantime (which is not that important for the paper i am quoting from but it is more important if you want to predict how much time we have to act.

So in between 1980 and now we have paved over many a grassland for parking lots and build many more roads. Added a couple of cities. Cut away some mangrove forests. Went fracking. Saw bark beetles eat whole forests. Indonesia had some nice fires while they were converting the local jungles to palm tree plantations. Now the Amazon is going to be a cattle ranch and then there is just the Congo left.

Basically you have to vary only some factors. But the models look at what current CO2 etc does in a natural world. It is a bit like the Houston 100 year flood maps. If you update the data you will get a refreshing new picture.

So basically the long term model is mostly run from the initial state while the changes between 1980 and now are quite large even if only looking at extra cities and decline of tropical forests.

Basic line: we are actively eating into all our carbon sinks so we might run out.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 272
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1436 on: August 17, 2019, 11:44:08 PM »
cross post (highlight added):  things are sometimes worse then modeled!
I think sometimes can replaced by usually.

It is just hard to accurately model the whole planet with many missing variables (trouble with clouds and many other things we just had not thought of before).

Once serious trouble in the Arctic was expected in the 2040s and nobody thought much about antarctica. Seemed to gain mass so probably ok for a long time after 2040.

Well that did not turn out to be true on both ends and i really can´t think of an example of a model that predicted things to be way worse.

First we are using a broad brush but we are painting the picture with missing details. So we did not know how warm the cold water coming up near the glaciers was or their topography which is relevant or the way they collapse.

And i think that rate of change is also doing something, maybe especially on land.

There was an interesting discussion in the science subforum about Tietsche et all 2011 and i read that paper then actually looked up the paper on the model they used. Lots of stuff in there. Quite detailed but so much is not in there.

The model mainly does land surface and temperatures and water level.

Every 20 years between 1980 and 2060, three such experiments are started in consecutive years (e.g., 2019,2020, 2021), so that we can analyze five different time slices with a three-member ensemble each.


What the model does not see is all the damage we do in the meantime (which is not that important for the paper i am quoting from but it is more important if you want to predict how much time we have to act.

So in between 1980 and now we have paved over many a grassland for parking lots and build many more roads. Added a couple of cities. Cut away some mangrove forests. Went fracking. Saw bark beetles eat whole forests. Indonesia had some nice fires while they were converting the local jungles to palm tree plantations. Now the Amazon is going to be a cattle ranch and then there is just the Congo left.

Basically you have to vary only some factors. But the models look at what current CO2 etc does in a natural world. It is a bit like the Houston 100 year flood maps. If you update the data you will get a refreshing new picture.

So basically the long term model is mostly run from the initial state while the changes between 1980 and now are quite large even if only looking at extra cities and decline of tropical forests.

Basic line: we are actively eating into all our carbon sinks so we might run out.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1437 on: August 18, 2019, 12:10:36 AM »
Has there been any comprehensive meta-analysis of anomalies from major model predictions over time? Seems like an obvious approach to help predict future trendiness and uncertainties, if there is a trend.

KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 230
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1438 on: August 18, 2019, 12:31:01 AM »
Models are continually evaluated as to how they perform compared to observations and each other.

International climate scientists discuss first results from a new set of climate model simulations at the CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop in Barcelona, Spain
9 April 2019

Quote
Under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), hundreds of climate researchers in modelling centres around the world are working to share, compare and analyse the latest results of global climate and Earth system models. Within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), now in its 6th phase, project simulations of the research community provide model output that will fuel climate research and climate impact studies for the next 5 to 10 years, while its careful analysis will form the basis for future climate assessments. More than 40 climate modelling centres worldwide are expected to participate in CMIP6 and some early results are now available, which have been discussed at the first CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop held in Barcelona, Spain, from 25-29 March 2019.

“I’m really excited to see the outcome of these first CMIP6 simulations. It is amazing how collaborative the scientific community is, and with the community-driven design of CMIP6, I expect we will make considerable progress on understanding how the Earth system responds to forcing, on identifying origins and consequences of systematic model biases, and on providing robust climate projections under different future scenarios that fill critical gaps compared to those used in CMIP5”, says CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring from the German Aerospace Center (DLR). “This will include significant advances in our process understanding, supported by newly available evaluation tools that allow a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of the models with observations”, says WGCM co-chair Cath Senior from the MetOffice Hadley Center in the UK.

At the time of the workshop, the CMIP6 archive included results from 12 modelling groups. As more modelling groups complete their simulations, the archive will become an increasingly rich resource for climate researchers. Based on new physical insights and newly available observations, many improvements have been made to models from CMIP5 to CMIP6, including changes in the representation of physics of the atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, and land surface. In many cases, changes in the detailed representation of cloud and aerosol processes have been implemented. This new generation of climate models also features increases in spatial resolution, as well as inclusion of additional Earth system processes and new components. These additional processes are needed to represent key feedbacks that affect climate change, but are also likely to increase the spread of climate projections across the multi-model ensemble.
https://www.wcrp-climate.org/news/wcrp-news/1478-cmip6-first-results


   

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 864
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 5685
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1439 on: August 18, 2019, 06:17:04 AM »
Thanks kassy.
[sarc]
So the models are a bit blind to human 'progress'.

<snip>
What the model does not see is all the damage we do in the meantime (which is not that important for the paper i am quoting from but it is more important if you want to predict how much time we have to act.

What a thriller.
Death Man's curve! Who's got the strongest nerves?

For how much longer can 'we' kick the proverbial can down the Death Man's curve?

Quote
So in between 1980 and now we have paved over many a grassland for parking lots and build many more roads. Added a couple of cities. Cut away some mangrove forests. Went fracking. Saw bark beetles eat whole forests. Indonesia had some nice fires while they were converting the local jungles to palm tree plantations. Now the Amazon is going to be a cattle ranch and then there is just the Congo left.

Yeah yeah, but How Long do we still have? When to act? How much budget left?
[/sarc]
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 272
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1440 on: August 18, 2019, 07:52:10 PM »
This might be a good thread to also put the model posts:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1922.0.html

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1441 on: August 18, 2019, 08:49:20 PM »
While the linked reference about methane feedback mechanisms errs on the side of least drama, it does indicate that given the right conditions methane feedbacks could cascade towards a significantly warmer climate:

Joshua F. Dean et al. (15 February 2018), "Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000559

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017RG000559

Abstract: "Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment‐specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios."

Plain Language Summary: "Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, second only to carbon dioxide in its importance to climate change. Methane production in natural environments is controlled by factors that are themselves influenced by climate. Increased methane production can warm the Earth, which can in turn cause methane to be produced at a faster rate ‐ this is called a positive climate feedback. Here we describe the most important natural environments for methane production that have the potential to produce a positive climate feedback. We discuss how these feedbacks may develop in the coming centuries under predicted climate warming using a cross‐disciplinary approach. We emphasize the importance of considering methane dynamics at all scales, especially its production and consumption and the role microorganisms play in both these processes, to our understanding of current and future global methane emissions. Marrying large‐scale geophysical studies with site‐scale biogeochemical and microbial studies will be key to this."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1442 on: August 18, 2019, 08:59:51 PM »

morganism

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 171
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1443 on: August 18, 2019, 11:19:04 PM »
a blog post by one of the authors of the above mentioned "West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing"

 www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/08/the-antarctic-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-yeah-its-probably-our-fault/

"What Figure 1 suggests is that the winds in this region have varied between easterly and westerly from decade to decade, throughout the 20th century. This is the natural variability associated with ENSO, and is no surprise. But in addition, there is a long-term trend. When averaged over several decades, the winds can be seen to have shifted from mean easterly in the 1920s through 1980s, to mean westerly thereafter.

The trend in the winds is small, and easily lost within the variability of individual model ensemble members, but it is robust (it occurs in all the ensemble members) and statistically significant. Moreover, we know its cause (at least in the model experiments): radiative forcing. Although these experiments also include radiative forcing changes resulting from the ozone hole, it’s clear that the trend in the winds begins well before ozone depletion begins in 1970s. Thus, the key forcing is greenhouse gases."

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1444 on: August 19, 2019, 04:47:10 PM »
The research discussed in the linked article identifies recent fracking operations in the US and Canada is largely to blame for recent rapid increases of methane concentrations in the atmosphere:

Title: "Fracking Boom in US and Canada Largely to Blame for 'Massive' Rise of Global Methane Levels: Study"

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/08/14/fracking-boom-us-and-canada-largely-blame-massive-rise-global-methane-levels-study
...

If it is not clear to some readers, atmospheric methane has induced about 25% of the GMSTA that we have experienced to date, while over the past decade shale gas has 'contributed more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally':

Howarth, R. W.: Ideas and perspectives: is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane?, Biogeosciences, 16, 3033–3046, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3033-2019, 2019.

https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/

Abstract
Methane has been rising rapidly in the atmosphere over the past decade, contributing to global climate change. Unlike the late 20th century when the rise in atmospheric methane was accompanied by an enrichment in the heavier carbon stable isotope (13C) of methane, methane in recent years has become more depleted in 13C. This depletion has been widely interpreted as indicating a primarily biogenic source for the increased methane. Here we show that part of the change may instead be associated with emissions from shale-gas and shale-oil development. Previous studies have not explicitly considered shale gas, even though most of the increase in natural gas production globally over the past decade is from shale gas. The methane in shale gas is somewhat depleted in 13C relative to conventional natural gas. Correcting earlier analyses for this difference, we conclude that shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1445 on: August 19, 2019, 05:01:02 PM »
The attached image indicates a 90% chance that 2019 will end in 2nd place with regard to GMSTA (& note that these values for GMSTA are referenced to a 1951 thru 1980 baseline):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1446 on: August 19, 2019, 07:17:50 PM »
The linked reference notes that ice sheet impacts on the global carbon cycle have been ignored by consensus climate science models, and discusses the potential 'active role of ice sheets in the global carbon cycle and potential ramifications of enhanced melt and ice discharge in a warming world.'

J. L. Wadham et al. (2019), "Ice sheets matter for the global carbon cycle", Nature Communications,  10, Article number: 3567, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11394-4

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11394-4

Abstract: "The cycling of carbon on Earth exerts a fundamental influence upon the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, and hence global climate over millennia. Until recently, ice sheets were viewed as inert components of this cycle and largely disregarded in global models. Research in the past decade has transformed this view, demonstrating the existence of uniquely adapted microbial communities, high rates of biogeochemical/physical weathering in ice sheets and storage and cycling of organic carbon (>104 Pg C) and nutrients. Here we assess the active role of ice sheets in the global carbon cycle and potential ramifications of enhanced melt and ice discharge in a warming world."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 864
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 5685
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1447 on: August 20, 2019, 06:00:45 AM »
Thanks ASLR :).
Looking at the above graph of "Projected GMSTA for 2019" posted by ASLR, the offset from pre-industrial to the 1951-1980 baseline is some 0.4C, so the 1.5C treshold is rapidly approaching.
Another couple of years will do it considering the upward trend.
Whist the lying kleptocrats (governments) are still discussing their carbon budgets to stay below 1.5C with their arms crossed, sipping an expensive wine.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17483
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 681
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1448 on: August 20, 2019, 05:35:00 PM »
The linked article explores reasons why consensus climate scientists have systematically underestimated the magnitude and rate of increase of climate change.  Of the several reasons that the article cites, I only extract below their desire to speak with a single/united message or univocality.

That said, I have also extract below, quotes indicating that not only have consensus climate scientists previously underestimated the rate of increase of SST (sea surface temperature), but they have also ignored the impacts of glacial ice melting on SST (particularly in the Southern Ocean) and on the MOC.  When consensus climate models are finally updated to include such phenomenon they will certain indicate that climate sensitivity this century is higher than previously estimated.

Title: "Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change"

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/

Extract: "Recently, the U.K. Met Office announced a revision to the Hadley Center historical analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST), suggesting that the oceans have warmed about 0.1 degree Celsius more than previously thought.

Because the oceans cover three fifths of the globe, this correction implies that previous estimates of overall global warming have been too low. Moreover it was reported recently that in the one place where it was carefully measured, the underwater melting that is driving disintegration of ice sheets and glaciers is occurring far faster than predicted by theory—as much as two orders of magnitude faster—throwing current model projections of sea level rise further in doubt.
These recent updates, suggesting that climate change and its impacts are emerging faster than scientists previously thought, are consistent with observations that we and other colleagues have made identifying a pattern in assessments of climate research of underestimation of certain key climate indicators, and therefore underestimation of the threat of climate disruption. When new observations of the climate system have provided more or better data, or permitted us to reevaluate old ones, the findings for ice extent, sea level rise and ocean temperature have generally been worse than earlier prevailing views.

Consistent underestimation is a form of bias—in the literal meaning of a systematic tendency to lean in one direction or another—which raises the question: what is causing this bias in scientific analyses of the climate system?

We found little reason to doubt the results of scientific assessments, overall. We found no evidence of fraud, malfeasance or deliberate deception or manipulation. Nor did we find any reason to doubt that scientific assessments accurately reflect the views of their expert communities. But we did find that scientists tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold.

Among the factors that appear to contribute to underestimation is the perceived need for consensus, or what we label univocality: the felt need to speak in a single voice. Many scientists worry that if disagreement is publicly aired, government officials will conflate differences of opinion with ignorance and use this as justification for inaction. Others worry that even if policy makers want to act, they will find it difficult to do so if scientists fail to send an unambiguous message. Therefore, they will actively seek to find their common ground and focus on areas of agreement; in some cases, they will only put forward conclusions on which they can all agree."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

FrostKing70

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #1449 on: August 20, 2019, 05:47:08 PM »
2019 will be in the top 2 or 3 hottest years, making 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 the 6 hottest years on record.   Combine this information with the above about scientists underestimating the impacts and how quickly they will manifest and I get even more concerned that my new house will have a water view sooner than expected!