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One example of billions of that.... When the cod fisheries were collapsing on the great bank, then President Reagan responded by supporting the fishermen buying and building bigger and better boats with better equipment to catch more fish to maintain their lifestyle and their catch. That of course accelerated the destruction of the ecosystem and the evolutionary response to fish becomming smaller than the nets could catch, and smaller than were economically viable. This only stopped when there were simply no more fish to catch. At no point were those in charge or involved able or willing to recognize the right answer. They had to not just dramatically reduce the catch to allow the stocks to recover, they had to stop fishing for them entirely. Instead they chose precisely the opposite action and destroyed the ecosystem, and with it any potential of returning to "normal" in anyones lifetime.
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Sam,
As an engineer I concur with your various assessments, and I note that not only does your example of conservative President Reagan counterproductive efforts to help cod fisherman work to accelerate the degradation of the environment, but the linked article discusses how left-wing efforts to implement green technology can also work to create a rebound effect that encourages the general public to consume more goods and thus to work to further degrade various Earth Systems:
Title: "Green technology will not save us"
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/06/27/1561608044000/Green-technology-will-not-save-us/
Extract: "The UN also warns that using green technology may be less beneficial (and in some cases, more harmful) than expected. It’s called the rebound effect - instances where technologically-driven advances in energy efficiency increase, rather than decrease, consumption leading to net-zero (or worse) emissions. For example, because electric cars cost less to run, consumers may drive them further and more often which wipes out the eco-advantage these vehicles have over their gasoline-powered counterparts. According to the Breakthrough Institute, a research centre that promotes tech solutions for environmental and human challenges, this effect means that “for every two steps forward we take in energy savings through efficiency, rebound effects take us one (and sometimes more) steps backwards.” This may erode up to 50 per cent of the eco-benefits promised by green technology by 2030, according to a paper by Barker, Dagoumas and Rubin."
Best,
ASLR
ASLR,
I can go you one better - closer - in terms of impacts on climate change. The Powers that be (TPTB) decided that electricity use for lighting was low hanging fruit that they could attack to reduce energy consumption in the battle against climate change. New lighting was developed with a discovery in Japan that allowed for the energetically efficient production of blue light using photodiodes. This discovery was combined with phosphors (mostly pure orange) place on top of the diodes to absorb some of the blue and remit it as orange to produce a light that appears to humans to be sort of white. Depending on the mix of blue and orange the light is either harshly blue, or orangish (warm).
The technology advanced and the devices went into mass production. Governments around the world then mandated that these highly energy efficient lights be used and that "wasteful" incandescent lights be banned. The US passed this in the 2007 Energy and Infrastructure act.
Unfortunately no one seems to have thought this through. The safety standards for the lights are based off of retinal heating lessons involving lasers and bright light sources, with some minor recognition of the blue light hazard. In the case of LED lights they chose to set a "safe" standard of 1,000,000 watt-seconds/square meter/steradian. They then set a series of groups RG0, RG1, RG2 that allowed different illuminance values (100 watts/square meter/steradian for RG0) and allowed exposure times per day (10,000 seconds for RG0). The thinking was I suspect that 10,000 is a big number and 100 is sufficiently bright, that that seems a good combination to define as "exempt".
10,000 seconds is 2 hours and 47 minutes. After that period of exposure, no additional exposure is safe for the rest of the day.The body needs time to recover from the photobleaching of the retina. Almost all of the lights being sold commercially are of this type. One manufacturer, SORAA, has lights that are somewhat different. They are based on producing violet light and using a broader range of colored phosphors.
A number of factors were not considered.
1) How people actually use light. (more than 10,000 seconds a day, and computer and device use adds to the exposure).
2) That once this level of exposure is exceeded that retinal injury IS occurring - and that that leads to insidious progressive blindness as the blue light bleaches the retina and triggers the body to order cells showing excessive damage to commit suicide.
3) That blue light also impacts the intrinsic photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGC) which control the circadian rhythm response
4) That the conversion of AC power to DC with inexpensive circuitry results in light that oscillates at twice the power frequency (100 or 120 hz in most of the world), AND shifts back and forth from intensely blue to intensely orange as the diodes drive the phosphors out of phase with themselves. This results in all manner of eye stress, guaranteed inability to focus as the eye tries to focus at two different focal lengths, and loud tinnitus, optical migraines and migraines as the brain sees motion everywhere in the visual field and activates the default mode network warning of danger.
5) That the LED lights do not have the throw of the lights they replaced, necessitating twice as many street lights
6) That the disruption of the circadian rhythm would inevitably lead to increase rates of hormone sensitive cancers, heart disease, obesity, type 2 diabetes, depression, suicide, behavior disorders, performance disorders, etc...
7) That advertisers would quickly realize that they could use this technology to light entire sides of buildings in full color displays, thereby increasing light pollution, circadian rhythm disruption and light pollution.
8 ) That the increase in blue light would destroy the night sky and astronomy
9) That animals, plants and insects would respond adversely to such light at night (e.g. salmon will not migrate upstream at night under bridges using LED light; that bird migration is disrupted, that insects are highly disrupted)
10) That people vary in the way they see and respond to light, with some being highly sensitive, and some much less so, that they have strong differences in color and light level response, that these change with age (young and old are especially vulnerable), or that some people are distinctly different in having eye diseases (AMD) or immune system disorders that are strongly impacted by intense blue light
11) That green light (which these lights generally do not produce) is incredibly important in reducing pain, and thereby offsetting opiate needs
12) That red light is essential in driving mitochondrial function through skin and tissue exposure to red light
10) and on and on and on
Lets look at just two of these aspects.
1) The sleep disrupting effects of blue light impacting the ipRGCs is well documented. The most recent study from Barcelona, Spain last year documented an actual observed 47% increase in the rate of breast cancers and a 105% increase in the rate of prostate cancers from the introduction of LED streetlights alone. Indoor use in the home of LED lighting further increased these rates by 50%.
Applied to the United States for example the first 15 years use of LED lighting (the expected life of the lights), should result in an increase of 20 million cancers and 4-5 million cancer fatalities. At some point attorneys will likely realize that their clients and their families can and should assert that the light injured them through the sleep impacts. Because the increase is so large (105% for prostate cancers), that it is more likely than not that the cancers were -caused- by the lights, making the lighting manufacturers potentially liable for ALL prostate cancers. I am not a lawyer, and this is for the courts to decide. But that seems all too obvious and preventable. For people with macular degeneration, no exposure is acceptable. They are effectively denied their rights to free travel and free association. They are injured everywhere these lights are used.
2) The flicker of the lights is causing differential impact to a small fraction of the population. For them the impact is extreme. They can no longer safely leave their homes at night, shop in stores, or participate in public functions or government. And they cannot safely work. The tinnitus, migraines and optical migraines essentially end their productive lives.
What should be clear is that the solution is to eliminate blue from all light use at night. because of the impact to sensitive people (infants, the elderly, those with AMD ...) that likely means essentially eliminating blue light from all lighting.
Interestingly, the increase in prostate and breast cancers occurred after fluorescent lighting entered the scene. It is conceptually possible that a large fraction of the base rate of these cancers may have been caused by the blue light from fluorescent lamps. This is unproven. But the direct impact of the LED lights on observed cancer rates, and the mechanistic understanding of how that works via the circadian rhythm impacts make that suggestive.
What is needed then to resolve this is the elimination of blue light from LED lighting, and the elimination of flicker. More over, to be effective the base of LED lighting already produced would need to be recalled and destroyed.
ALL of the energy used in the manufacture, distribution, recall, and destruction of these lights is then a sunk energy cost that cannot be recovered by using the lights through to the end of their lives.
Rather than saving energy, the conversion to LED lighting will have cost energy and worked against us in the battle to fight climate change.
Additionally, the Jevon's Paradox is fully on display. The intended reduction in energy use hasn't materialized because of the increased use of the lights compared to their predecessors and because of their use for new purposes.
But the simple idea that these lights are more efficient, therefor better, combined with the incredible complexity involved in understanding how light affects us, makes this a nearly impossible discussion.
Sam