December poll: JAXA maximum

[Paddy]

Poll closes end of December. Give us your best bets on the outcome for maximum sea ice extent. EDIT: You can adjust your vote any time before the poll closes.

I've gone for narrow overlapping bins to allow people to be fairly precise in their guesses.

Previous years:
2017: 13.88
2016: 13.96
2015: 13.94
2014: 14.45
2013: 14.52
2012: 14.71
2011: 14.13
2010: 14.69
2009: 14.66
2008: 14.77
2007: 14.21
2006: 14.13
2005: 14.4

[Pavel]

13.75 to 14. I don't expect any significant "anomaly"

[Paddy]

13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

[oren]

13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

+1

[Paddy]

Looks like the forum's guesses are pretty closely clustered around the 14m mark.

[Neven]

14.25 to 14.5 million. No fireworks this year.

[Paddy]

A few figures for reference:

3 year median: 13.94
5 year median: 13.96
7 year median: 14.13
9 year median: 14.45
11 year median: 14.45
13 year median: 14.4

3 year mean: 13.93
5 year mean: 14.15
7 year mean: 14.23
9 year mean: 14.33
11 year mean: 14.36
13 year mean: 14.34

I think a big question regarding how large extent will be this year would be the chances of it bouncing back to previous levels vs staying in a similar area to the last three years vs going even lower. Based on the most recent data I saw, with 2017 second lowest for both extent and dmi freezing days, and 3rd lowest on PIOMAS, I think something similar to the last 3 years is most likely, even though no year prior to the last three went that low, but I'm willing to change my mind.

[Daniel B.]

Tracking fairly close to 2010/11 and 2006/07, which both finished between 14 and 14.25

[Juan C. García]

13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

+1 

[Daniel B.]

13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

+1 

They are really not all that different.  If 30% of each dimension is lost equally, that corresponds to ~50% area and 65% volume.  Throw in the measurement differences, and they are similar.

[crandles]

If this year is 2017, then 13.88 

[echoughton]

Going on the high end 14.50-75
Barely missed my high low prediction in Sept. So...why not?

[Tor Bejnar]

Because bins overlap, I postulate that half of each bin can be added to its neighbors (and then 'removed' from consideration)  This gives 14 +/-0.125 the equivalent of 21.5 votes at this time, a hair over half of all votes.  Have we ever converged on a single value so much?  (The determination of our accuracy will come later.)

[Paddy]

Going on the high end 14.50-75
Barely missed my high low prediction in Sept. So...why not?

Indeed. And the good thing about going for an outlying value is the bragging rights if you guess right, of course.

Because bins overlap, I postulate that half of each bin can be added to its neighbors (and then 'removed' from consideration)  This gives 14 +/-0.125 the equivalent of 21.5 votes at this time, a hair over half of all votes.  Have we ever converged on a single value so much?  (The determination of our accuracy will come later.)

Maybe in last year's Antarctic poll, but the two aren't immediately comparable. Nope, not even there, although it possibly might have done if it had had a 2.0 +/- 0.125 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html

[Tor Bejnar]

Found one:  accuracy not so good!

[Paddy]

If anyone wants to adjust your vote, you have until the 31st to do it.

Currently we're still tracking at 2nd lowest volume, 2nd lowest extent, and 2nd warmest conditions for the time of year, so imho you might want to consider a bin that includes 2nd lowest peak extent, or something not far off it.

[Juan C. García]

If anyone wants to adjust your vote, you have until the 31st to do it.

Currently we're still tracking at 2nd lowest volume, 2nd lowest extent, and 2nd warmest conditions for the time of year, so imho you might want to consider a bin that includes 2nd lowest peak extent, or something not far off it.

Changing to below 14, like the last 3 years... (range 13.75-14)

[Paddy]

Last chance to change your vote if you want to. Currently extent is lowest on record, but the question is whether this is likely to continue or not.

EDIT: Personally, I'm sticking to 13.875 - 14.125

[gerontocrat]

Gone down 2 steps to 17,75 to 14 million km2.
Why? Extent gain has been low although temp anomalies not that spectacular.
Therefore guessing that 'tis the oceans wot dunnit, and stored ocean heat will continue to slow down extent gain over the last two months or so of the freezing season.

But what do I know?

JAXA still off - how annoying.

[Neven]

I've gone down two bins as well, to '14 to 14.25 million', but I'm gambling on SIE not going below 14 million this year. I wish myself good luck.

[Paddy]

Poll closed, just as I was considering going down another half bin

[Tor Bejnar]

I've gone down two bins as well, to '14 to 14.25 million', but I'm gambling on SIE not going below 14 million this year. I wish myself good luck.

Going down two bins is like wishing the Earth bad luck  
Maybe not 'wishing' but being 'resigned to'