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What will be the JAXA maximum this year?

>14.75 million
14.5 to 14.75 million
14.375 to 14.625 million
14.25 to 14.5 million
14.125 to 14.375 million
14 to 14.25 million
13.875 to 14.125 million
13.75 to 14 million
13.625 to 13.875 million
13.5 to 13.75 million
13.375 to 13.625 million
13.25 to 13.5 million
13.125 to 13.375 million
13 to 13.25 million
<13 million

Author Topic: December poll: JAXA maximum  (Read 4341 times)

Paddy

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December poll: JAXA maximum
« on: December 11, 2017, 08:25:24 AM »
Poll closes end of December. Give us your best bets on the outcome for maximum sea ice extent. EDIT: You can adjust your vote any time before the poll closes.

I've gone for narrow overlapping bins to allow people to be fairly precise in their guesses.

Previous years:
2017: 13.88
2016: 13.96
2015: 13.94
2014: 14.45
2013: 14.52
2012: 14.71
2011: 14.13
2010: 14.69
2009: 14.66
2008: 14.77
2007: 14.21
2006: 14.13
2005: 14.4
« Last Edit: January 15, 2018, 11:35:39 AM by Neven »

Pavel

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2017, 08:34:26 AM »
13.75 to 14. I don't expect any significant "anomaly"

Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2017, 08:43:30 AM »
13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

oren

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2017, 09:45:01 AM »
13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.
+1

Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2017, 06:55:22 AM »
Looks like the forum's guesses are pretty closely clustered around the 14m mark.

Neven

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2017, 12:57:37 PM »
14.25 to 14.5 million. No fireworks this year.
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Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2017, 08:20:13 PM »
A few figures for reference:

3 year median: 13.94
5 year median: 13.96
7 year median: 14.13
9 year median: 14.45
11 year median: 14.45
13 year median: 14.4

3 year mean: 13.93
5 year mean: 14.15
7 year mean: 14.23
9 year mean: 14.33
11 year mean: 14.36
13 year mean: 14.34

I think a big question regarding how large extent will be this year would be the chances of it bouncing back to previous levels vs staying in a similar area to the last three years vs going even lower. Based on the most recent data I saw, with 2017 second lowest for both extent and dmi freezing days, and 3rd lowest on PIOMAS, I think something similar to the last 3 years is most likely, even though no year prior to the last three went that low, but I'm willing to change my mind.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 09:02:05 PM by Paddy »

Daniel B.

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2017, 10:41:20 PM »
Tracking fairly close to 2010/11 and 2006/07, which both finished between 14 and 14.25

Juan C. García

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2017, 05:04:28 AM »
13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

+1  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Daniel B.

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2017, 02:51:18 AM »
13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.

+1  ;)

They are really not all that different.  If 30% of each dimension is lost equally, that corresponds to ~50% area and 65% volume.  Throw in the measurement differences, and they are similar.

crandles

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2017, 11:42:06 AM »
If this year is 2017, then 13.88  ;) :P

echoughton

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2017, 12:43:12 PM »
Going on the high end 14.50-75
Barely missed my high low prediction in Sept. So...why not?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2017, 08:25:23 PM »
Because bins overlap, I postulate that half of each bin can be added to its neighbors (and then 'removed' from consideration)  This gives 14 +/-0.125 the equivalent of 21.5 votes at this time, a hair over half of all votes.  Have we ever converged on a single value so much?  (The determination of our accuracy will come later.)
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Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2017, 09:03:34 PM »
Going on the high end 14.50-75
Barely missed my high low prediction in Sept. So...why not?

Indeed. And the good thing about going for an outlying value is the bragging rights if you guess right, of course.

Because bins overlap, I postulate that half of each bin can be added to its neighbors (and then 'removed' from consideration)  This gives 14 +/-0.125 the equivalent of 21.5 votes at this time, a hair over half of all votes.  Have we ever converged on a single value so much?  (The determination of our accuracy will come later.)

Maybe in last year's Antarctic poll, but the two aren't immediately comparable. Nope, not even there, although it possibly might have done if it had had a 2.0 +/- 0.125 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html

Tor Bejnar

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2017, 04:54:14 PM »
Found one:  accuracy not so good!

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Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2017, 10:00:24 AM »
If anyone wants to adjust your vote, you have until the 31st to do it.

Currently we're still tracking at 2nd lowest volume, 2nd lowest extent, and 2nd warmest conditions for the time of year, so imho you might want to consider a bin that includes 2nd lowest peak extent, or something not far off it.

Juan C. García

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2017, 04:05:06 PM »
If anyone wants to adjust your vote, you have until the 31st to do it.

Currently we're still tracking at 2nd lowest volume, 2nd lowest extent, and 2nd warmest conditions for the time of year, so imho you might want to consider a bin that includes 2nd lowest peak extent, or something not far off it.

Changing to below 14, like the last 3 years... (range 13.75-14)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2017, 12:05:55 PM »
Last chance to change your vote if you want to. Currently extent is lowest on record, but the question is whether this is likely to continue or not.

EDIT: Personally, I'm sticking to 13.875 - 14.125
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 12:14:56 PM by Paddy »

gerontocrat

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2017, 12:14:45 PM »
Gone down 2 steps to 17,75 to 14 million km2.
Why? Extent gain has been low although temp anomalies not that spectacular.
Therefore guessing that 'tis the oceans wot dunnit, and stored ocean heat will continue to slow down extent gain over the last two months or so of the freezing season.

But what do I know?

JAXA still off - how annoying.
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Neven

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2017, 12:25:53 PM »
I've gone down two bins as well, to '14 to 14.25 million', but I'm gambling on SIE not going below 14 million this year. I wish myself good luck.
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Paddy

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2017, 10:04:17 AM »
Poll closed, just as I was considering going down another half bin

Tor Bejnar

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Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2017, 03:49:02 PM »
I've gone down two bins as well, to '14 to 14.25 million', but I'm gambling on SIE not going below 14 million this year. I wish myself good luck.
Going down two bins is like wishing the Earth bad luck :'( 
Maybe not 'wishing' but being 'resigned to'  :'(  :-[ :'(
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