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What do you predict will be the antarctic sea ice minimum extent for this melting season?  (In million square km)

>3.75
0 (0%)
3.625 - 3.875
0 (0%)
3.5 - 3.75
0 (0%)
3.375 - 3.625
0 (0%)
3.25 - 3.5
1 (3.6%)
3.125 - 3.375
0 (0%)
3.0 - 3.25
0 (0%)
2.875 - 3.125
0 (0%)
2.75 - 3.0
1 (3.6%)
2.625 - 2.875
2 (7.1%)
2.5 - 2.75
1 (3.6%)
2.375 - 2.625
3 (10.7%)
2.25 - 2.5
6 (21.4%)
2.125 - 2.375
5 (17.9%)
2.0 - 2.25
5 (17.9%)
1.875 - 2.125
0 (0%)
1.75 - 2.0
2 (7.1%)
1.625 - 1.875
0 (0%)
<1.75
2 (7.1%)

Total Members Voted: 27

Voting closed: December 31, 2017, 11:02:39 AM

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Author Topic: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent  (Read 2974 times)

Paddy

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December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« on: December 13, 2017, 11:02:39 AM »
Question as in the poll title.  Poll closes at the end of December; ]you may change your answer at any time up to then.  Narrow overlapping bins have been used.

Figures from previous years (with thanks to Darvince for his post last year with most of these):

2017: 2.15 (lowest on record)
2016: 2.66
2015: 3.59 (2nd highest)
2014: 3.54
2013: 3.69 (highest on record)
2012: 3.22
2011: 2.32 (3rd lowest)

2006: 2.41

1997: 2.25 (2nd lowest)

1993: 2.37 (4th lowest)

1986: 3.01
1985: 2.58
1984: 2.53
1983: 2.91
1982: 3.01
1981: 2.74
1980: 2.53
1979: 2.87

EDIT: Drat; no button has appeared to allow people to remove their vote and change it.  Mods, if you see this are you able to fix it?  Sorry to have to ask! EDIT 2: Fixed! Thank you Neven
« Last Edit: December 20, 2017, 10:16:54 AM by Paddy »
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Paddy

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2017, 08:26:39 PM »
Votes are kind of all over the place so far...
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Paddy

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2017, 11:59:03 AM »
Time's running out if you want to vote or adjust your vote. EDIT: currently, Antarctic sea ice extent is the second lowest on record for the date, but there's still quite a lot more than there was in 2016 at the same date. I've moved down half a bin to 2.125 - 2.375 myself to embrace the possibility of staying in 2nd place.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 12:07:42 PM by Paddy »
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gerontocrat

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2017, 03:56:13 PM »
1.75 to 2.0 million km2 - i.e. a new record low by 2 to 3 hundred thousand.

Why? Though the 10 year average of remaining melt points to an even lower minimum, the last remnants will be thick ice - especially in the SW of the Weddell Sea, that will resist melting.

HYCOM has some gifs showing what's going on.
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/antarc.html
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Pavel

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2017, 04:55:59 PM »
 All the ice in the Ross sea is the first year ice. Despite the extent is higher than last year, I guess the minimum should be very low this season. Weddell sea can get even worse than 2017 minimum
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Pi26

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2017, 04:56:59 PM »
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Paddy

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2017, 10:10:12 AM »
Poll closes in two hours. I suspect the last 2m square km may be very resilient, as there are always sheltered areas plus the negative feedback of increased amounts of shelf and glacier ice breaking off, but what do I know?
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Pmt111500

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Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2017, 11:18:57 AM »
Not voting on Antarctic sea ice, as so much depends on melt water and crumbling ice sheets. In the north Greenland makes it hard enough.
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