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What will the JAXA Arctic SIE rank be on December 31, 2017

1-2
14 (30.4%)
3-4
23 (50%)
5-6
5 (10.9%)
7-8
3 (6.5%)
9-10
0 (0%)
11-12
1 (2.2%)
12-13
0 (0%)
14-15
0 (0%)
16 +
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 43

Voting closed: December 24, 2017, 07:19:55 PM

Author Topic: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017  (Read 11634 times)

Tor Bejnar

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JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: December 15, 2017, 07:19:55 PM »
... Extent still 2nd just - see image to see how predicting outcome even to Dec 31 looks like a mugs game...
Yah:  somewhere between (or including) 1st and 10th place on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1, I'd say.  Poll anyone?

Third looks like the lowest it could reasonably attain (after 2016 and 2010).  The growth is starting to pile on, so 15th is not out of reach, as the difference between 3rd and 15th is less than 1st and 3rd.
Refer to the 2017 sea ice area and extent data for general discussion, or here if you want to influence other voters  :).

The poll results will only show after the poll has expired in 9 days (about now on Christmas eve, by my calculation), but you may change your vote until then.  (I wonder what the effect of no-instant gratification will be.)  [Edits:  Rank of 1 is lowest extent.  "Remove vote" works - I've already changed my mind.  I just noticed my typo:  two options for choosing 12th place!]
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 08:55:27 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Neven

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2017, 07:22:11 PM »
Nice poll!

I'm going for 5-6. For now.
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gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2017, 07:25:41 PM »
OK, so I am a mug. 2nd.
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Daniel B.

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2017, 08:15:58 PM »
I tend to follow the NSIDC more closely, so my JAXA knowledge is lacking.  Still, I will vote for 12th.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2017, 04:32:45 AM »
Nice poll!

I'm going for 5-6. For now.

+1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Bruce Steele

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2017, 05:44:53 AM »
Seventh, I have a history of voting for melt numbers that exceed results. I am afraid I need to moderate my negativism.
 

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2017, 06:00:29 AM »
Trying to compensate for any moderation of negativism, went for the record to second category.

oren

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2017, 12:09:01 PM »
Went for 1-2, unknown is high but the possibility is there.

jdallen

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2017, 08:52:41 AM »
I'm not even going to hazard a guess. Pure. Dice. Roll.
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Paddy

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2017, 10:34:23 PM »
Guessed at 3rd, so 3-4.

RikW

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2017, 08:59:10 AM »
If I read the graph correctly it is now in 2nd position, and since it's a wild guess, I'd say it will stay 2nd :)

echoughton

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2017, 12:47:57 PM »
5-6...doable, but not overly rosy...possibly a first for me  8)

miki

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #12 on: December 18, 2017, 03:28:57 PM »
3rd to 5th.

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2017, 01:43:25 PM »
Jaxa data as at 19 Dec posted on Arctic Sea Ice Extent Data thread.

Temp anomalies still forecast as very high (cci-reanalyzer) at critical pacific and atlantic sides. Maybe my guess at 2nd lowest extent still has a chance.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2017, 01:58:16 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2017, 03:34:27 PM »

a current snap shot for those who can't be bothered going to gerontocrat's other thread post which has this and other images.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #15 on: December 23, 2017, 11:53:14 AM »
And another snapshot - extent gain has stalled.
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Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2017, 12:48:26 PM »
And another snapshot - extent gain has stalled.

It is still time, even that I feel I am cheating, being so close to the date forecasted .  ;)
Moving to the 3-4 range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2017, 11:39:10 PM »
Feeling fairly confident that it'll be either 2nd or 3rd. I can see why a lot of people prefer overlapping bins.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2017, 06:17:02 AM »
So cool to be among 50% of voters!  (3-4) Now the real waiting begins!

Oh, and one person did take advantage of the one overlapping bin.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Pi26

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2017, 08:12:41 AM »
From 11653621 km2 (December 24 2017) to 12096796 km2 (lowest December 31 value in 2016) now 443175 km2 (63311 km2 per day) required to miss a new lowest record.

For 3rd place 77K km2 per day required.

I guess a new record low, because the currently warm arctic.

Forseeable if we watch and measure the heating season instead simply the melting season only?

« Last Edit: December 25, 2017, 09:05:53 AM by Pi26 »

Alexander555

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2017, 09:16:15 AM »
From 11653621 km2 (December 24 2017) to 12096796 km2 (lowest December 31 value in 2016) now 443175 km2 (63311 km2 per day) required to miss a new lowest record.

For 3rd place 77K km2 per day required.

I guess a new record low, because the currently warm arctic.

Forseeable if we watch and measure the heating season instead simply the melting season only?


I do remember we also had a big difference in the average temperature on the arctic last year. Something like 20 to 25 degree warmer than normal. But i don't know the exact date anymore. If it were not the same days we could be in for a supprise.

aperson

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2017, 10:28:07 AM »
I do remember we also had a big difference in the average temperature on the arctic last year. Something like 20 to 25 degree warmer than normal. But i don't know the exact date anymore. If it were not the same days we could be in for a supprise.

The largest anomaly in 2016 was 7.7C on Nov 9, 2016 as per the reanalysis dataset at http://cci-reanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/

In the freezing season thread I note that this heating event is similar to Dec 1, 2007. I have attached the JAXA extent graph for 2007 during this time. Modest extent loss lasted for several days followed by extent gain. This matches the current pattern we are seeing with SIE now as well.

Given that we should see the large anomalies subside over the next 3 days I think anywhere from 1st to 3rd is a tossup.
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Alexander555

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #22 on: December 25, 2017, 11:05:13 PM »
I do remember we also had a big difference in the average temperature on the arctic last year. Something like 20 to 25 degree warmer than normal. But i don't know the exact date anymore. If it were not the same days we could be in for a supprise.

The largest anomaly in 2016 was 7.7C on Nov 9, 2016 as per the reanalysis dataset at http://cci-reanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/

In the freezing season thread I note that this heating event is similar to Dec 1, 2007. I have attached the JAXA extent graph for 2007 during this time. Modest extent loss lasted for several days followed by extent gain. This matches the current pattern we are seeing with SIE now as well.

Given that we should see the large anomalies subside over the next 3 days I think anywhere from 1st to 3rd is a tossup.

Maybe my interpretation is wrong, but that light red area. Is that not indicating that it's 20 to 25 degree higher than the average ?

Alexander555

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #23 on: December 25, 2017, 11:07:39 PM »
They are talking about 6,6 degree plus. That's maybe for the entire arctic.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2017, 07:37:58 AM »
Maybe my interpretation is wrong, but that light red area. Is that not indicating that it's 20 to 25 degree higher than the average ?

I agree that a little north of East Siberian Sea and Laptev, we can see a 20-25 °C above average. Also, we have 6.6 °C above average for the whole Arctic.

It is from Nov 1st., 2016.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2017, 07:46:24 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #25 on: December 28, 2017, 06:07:12 AM »
Interesting:

On December 27, the 2017 becomes the lowest on record...  ???
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #26 on: December 28, 2017, 10:51:15 AM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D
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Jim Pettit

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #27 on: December 28, 2017, 01:34:31 PM »
It was just over a month ago--well, 40 days or so--that 2016's lead over 2017 was greater than a million square kilometers. That's (obviously) been erased, thanks to 2016's near-record high December extent increase, and 2017's s-l-o-w December growth, the third lowest since 2006.

"C'est la vie," say the old folks. "It goes to show you never can tell."

What oh what does 2018 have in store for the top of the world?

oren

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #28 on: December 28, 2017, 01:57:57 PM »
Chukchi, Bering and especially Baffin are dragging on the extent numbers.

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #29 on: December 28, 2017, 02:17:25 PM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D

You are the boss, so I guess you can even do a Trump and change the data?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #30 on: December 28, 2017, 04:41:24 PM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D
Given that you are an Administrator, I bet you can!

In other news, it's beginning to look like a first bin 'victory', which (if manifested) means most of the voters were 'too' conservative.  Are we growing up?

I, by the way, picked the 2nd bin (2017 ending in 3rd or 4th place) because that had (by the look of the graph) the biggest gap available (not including the 'less than previous 1st place' gap) and, when throwing darts, bigger targets are easier to hit.
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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #31 on: December 28, 2017, 05:48:45 PM »
Figured since 1st and 2nd were in the same pick it was guaranteed.  Certainly didn't think it would be higher than 2nd.  Especially after last winter.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #32 on: December 29, 2017, 01:41:53 PM »
This is NSIDC, not JAXA, but it's nonetheless looking good for the first bin:


gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #33 on: December 29, 2017, 04:11:45 PM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D

You are the boss, so I guess you can even do a Trump and change the data?

Neven - Was it you who switched off JAXA today?
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Neven

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #34 on: December 29, 2017, 11:00:24 PM »
Yes, but I forgot about NSIDC.  ;)
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gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #35 on: December 30, 2017, 11:44:11 AM »
JAXA still off - maintenance?
Just when things get really, really interesting.
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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #36 on: December 30, 2017, 11:58:30 AM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D

You are the boss, so I guess you can even do a Trump and change the data?

Neven - Was it you who switched off JAXA today?

It rather looks like republicans are again attacking it. They should really pull the cable going america off and apologize Canadians, it's not their fault you know.

aperson

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2017, 04:28:33 AM »
2017-12-30: 11.81 m km^2
2016-12-30: 12.09 m km^2
« Last Edit: December 31, 2017, 06:17:13 AM by aperson »
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miki

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2017, 07:35:04 PM »
In other news, it's beginning to look like a first bin 'victory', which (if manifested) means most of the voters were 'too' conservative.  Are we growing up?

Boy, more than grown up it starts feeling like I got a little used to the relentless demise, and less alarmed than what I should.

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #39 on: January 01, 2018, 01:29:17 AM »
In other news, it's beginning to look like a first bin 'victory', which (if manifested) means most of the voters were 'too' conservative.  Are we growing up?
Boy, more than grown up it starts feeling like I got a little used to the relentless demise, and less alarmed than what I should.
No. growing up would entail not being scared of being ridiculed or called unscientific, or alarmist for not being ultra conservative and understating everything.
 Even in an anonymous poll people are scared to express an opinion that might be too extreme. Growing up would not be allowing oneself to be bullied into silence and child like submission by vested interests in industry and the reputations of outdated science.
Growing up would be realizing that action avoiding a chance of a major disaster occurring at the risk that some might claim it never would have anyway, is much better than not speaking or acting and living with the consequences.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #40 on: January 02, 2018, 04:20:09 AM »
It's official.  The lowest bin 'won', and the Earth lost out.  (30% of us guessed [or calculated] right this time.)
From JAXA: showing from just before this poll opened. (Click for an enlargement.)

Edit:  I suspect this isn't JAXA data after all.  gerontocrat's JAXA graph (at the beginning of this thread) shows 2016 crossing '12' earlier in December than this graph.  The VISHOP graph that I included doesn't actually say whose data is included.  See below...
« Last Edit: January 02, 2018, 07:48:56 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

oren

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #41 on: January 02, 2018, 08:28:04 AM »
It's official.  The lowest bin 'won', and the Earth lost out.  (30% of us guessed [or calculated] right this time.)
From JAXA: showing from just before this poll opened. (Click for an enlargement.)
Is the 2010s average a new line in JAXA? Didn't know they showed it.

Phil.

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #42 on: January 02, 2018, 04:27:36 PM »
Yes, but I forgot about NSIDC.  ;)

That seems to have been rectified since I have been unable to access Chartic in 2018!  ;)
Happy New Year 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« Reply #43 on: January 02, 2018, 07:47:47 PM »
From Jim Pettit's website, it looks like 11.9 is the December 31 JAXA SIE.

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"