JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 4,729,615 km2(September 29, 2018)
Just to add to Juan's post -
- Weak extent increase 16k,
- Extent is 216 k (4.6 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 290 k (6.1 %) below 2017 on this date.
- freezing to date from minimum is 313k (53.5%) less than the 10 year average
- on average 5.9% of the increase in extent done.
The table of differences in extent also shows how much 2007 and 2012 remain outliers in the record, while the first table of outcomes shows that in those years extent increase in the following freezing season was far above average. Hence an extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added.
On average , extent at 29th September is 305k ABOVE extent on August 31. In contrast, extent on 28 September 2018 is 12k BELOW extent on Aug 31 2018.
GFS says the Arctic temperature anomaly will be around +3 degrees celsius for at least the next 5 days (this I believe), and then increasing to well over 4 degrees by day 10. This is a pattern with GFS - like the Farmers' Almanac, just once in a while such predictions come true, but many times not. However, a generally slow freezing season looks on the cards at least for the next few days though perhaps not for the CAA, the eastern end of the Beaufort, and maybe the Hudson and Baffin (very cold North Central Canada), and also the Greenland Sea.