2018 sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 23^rd, 2018:
     10,314,915 km², an increase of 42,108 km².
     2018 is the 13^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,314,915 km2（November 23, 2018）

- Extent increase at 42 k is 68 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 386 k (7.4%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 54.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.72 million km2 (840k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.61 million km2, (730k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now well above average. One did not expect to be able to say that extent on this day is greater than that of 15 years ago.

But on this day extent gain well below average. Just a blip or is the extreme gain coming to an end?

The late and very slow refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory.
Is this event a demonstration that after a BOE one might expect a similar result?

On average (last 10 years) just half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 108 days to maximum. So who is brave enough given the current state of Arctic Sea Ice to predict the final outcome, given a period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse?

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +1 celsius  for the next few days. The extreme cold in northern Canada will moderate.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 November (5 day trailing average) =  8,972,163 km2

Total Area           8,972,163    km2        393,828    km2   >   the 2010's average.  570,352    k   >   2017           Total Gain____    92    k    Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain Central Seas__    41    k   gain Other Seas___    40    k   gain           Peripheral Seas Bering _______   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    9    k   gain           Kara_________    26    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    4    k   gain           Other Seas            Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    41    k   gain

Area gain lower than recently - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS also saying warmer air is still moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada by early next week. Stormy weather and relative warmth also continues moving up Baffin Bay and towards NE Greenland.

[gerontocrat]

The Hudson area and extent is now at 1980's average levels. The extreme cold in central and East Canada is already moderating and this will continue for the next 5 days or so, including above zero temperatures in the south of Hudson Bay. The question remains whether this will be sufficient to slow the freeze to any significant extent.

A similar effect has already happened in Baffin Bay and the Greenland Sea.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 24^th, 2018:
     10,347,324 km², an increase of 32,409 km².
     2018 is the 13^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,347,324 km2（November 24, 2018）

- Extent increase at 32 k is 71 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 316 k (5.7%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 56.0 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.65 million km2 (770k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.53 million km2, (650k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum well above average. One did not expect to be able to say that extent on this day is greater than that of 15 years ago.

But on this day extent gain is again well below average. Just a blip or is the extreme gain coming to an end?

The late and very slow refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory.
Is this event a demonstration that after a BOE one might expect a similar result?

On average (last 10 years) just half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 108 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +1.5 celsius  for the next few days. The extreme cold in northern Canada will continue to moderate but may return in early December.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 November (5 day trailing average) =  9,057,507 km2

Total Area           9,057,507    km2        399,827    km2   >   the 2010's average.  611,882    k   >   2017           Total Gain    85    k    Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain Central Seas__    40    k   gain Other Seas___    31    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    8    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_    12    k   gain           Kara_________    25    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    31    k   gain

Area gain lower than recently - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS also saying warmer air is still moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada by early next week. Stormy weather and relative warmth also continues moving up Baffin Bay and towards NE Greenland.
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

Area gain still not happening in the Bering Sea and slow in the Chukchi

[gerontocrat]

Atlantic Front
Kara Sea - strong gain,
Greenland Sea, slow gain,
Barents Sea - accelerating gain

[gerontocrat]

Canada
CAA is full (so no graph attached).
Hudson Bay- very fast gain,
Baffin Bay - gain has stalled after fast gain earlier.

[gerontocrat]

Other Seas not yet ice full.

Central Arctic Sea - nearly there,
Okhotsk - not started yet
St Lawrence -  not started yet.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 25^th, 2018:
     10,392,992 km², an increase of 45,668 km².
     2018 is now the 12^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,392,992 km2（November 25, 2018）

- Extent increase at 46 k is 29 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 287 k (5.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 56.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.62 million km2 (740k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.50 million km2, (630k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still well above average. But for the third day extent gain is again well below average. Just a blip or has the extreme gain coming to an end?

The late and very slow refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory.
Is this event a demonstration that after a BOE one might expect a similar result?

On average (last 10 years) just over half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 108 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +1 celsius  for the next few days. GFS indicates that the extreme cold in northern Canada will continue to moderate but may return in early December.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 November (5 day trailing average) =   9,175,580 km2

Total Area           9,175,580    km2        438,984    km2   >   the 2010's average.  675,022    k   >   2017           Total Gain    114    k    Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain Central Seas__    72    k   gain Other Seas___    20    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain Greenland____    9    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    10    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_    18    k   gain           Kara_________    33    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Chukchi______    9    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Area gain higher than recently - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Hudson Bay gain slowing due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but not for long.

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1 and staying there for a few days. GFS also saying warmer air is still moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for next few days.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 26^th, 2018:
     10,410,575 km², an increase of only 17,583 km².
     2018 is now the 10^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,410,575 km2（November 26, 2018）

- Extent increase at 18 k is 76 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 211 k (3.7%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 57.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.54 million km2 (660k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.40 million km2, (520k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still well above average. But for the fourth day extent gain is again well below average. Just a blip or has the extreme gain come to an end?

On average (last 10 years) over half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 108 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +0.5 to +1 celsius  for the next few days. GFS indicates that the extreme cold in northern Canada will continue to moderate over the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 November (5 day trailing average) =    9,298,476  km2

Total Area           9,298,476    km2        479,716    km2   >   the 2010's average.  728,499    k   >   2017           Total Gain    123    k    Peripheral Seas    27    k   gain Central Seas__    91    k   gain Other Seas___    5    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain Greenland____    9    k   gain Barents ______    8    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    11    k   gain CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    23    k   gain           Kara_________    33    k   gain Laptev_______    10    k   gain Chukchi______    16    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area gain much higher than recently - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
This is in contrast to recent slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Hudson Bay gain slowing due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but probbaly only for 2 or 3 days more.

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +0.5 to +1 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days.
Warmth may also return by the end of the week to Bering and Chukchi areas.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 27^th, 2018:
     10,457,070 km², an increase of 46,495 km².
     2018 is now the 9^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,457,070 km2（November 27, 2018）

- Extent increase at 46 k is 38 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 173 k (3.0%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 58.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.50 million km2 (630k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.34 million km2, (460k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still above average. But for the fifth day extent gain is again well below average. Not just a blip - but has the extreme gain come to an end?

On average (last 10 years) over half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 105 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +0.5 to +1.5 celsius  for the next few days. GFS indicates that the extreme cold in northern Canada will continue to moderate over the next few days, but maybe cold returning after a week.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 November (5 day trailing average) =    9,407,024   km2

Total Area           9,407,024    km2        502,143    km2   >    2010's average.  747,783    k   >   2017 -101,748    k   <    2000's average. Total Gain    109    k    Peripheral Seas    18    k   gain Central Seas__    90    k   gain Other Seas___    0    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain Greenland____    5    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    7    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    22    k   gain           Kara_________    29    k   gain Laptev_______    11    k   gain Chukchi______    22    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area gain much higher than recently - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Area almost at 2000's average.
This is in contrast to recent slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but probably only for 2 or 3 days more.

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +0.5 to +1.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return late next week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 28^th, 2018:
     10,493,077 km², an increase of 36,007 km².
     2018 is the 9^th lowest on record.

     There is no official value on 2007. Average used.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,493,077 km2（November 28, 2018）

- Extent increase at 36 k is 39 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 134 k (2.3%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 59.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.47 million km2 (590k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.27 million km2, (390k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still above average. But for the sixth day extent gain is again well below average. Not just a blip - but has the extreme gain come to an end?

On average (last 10 years) over half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 104 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +1.5 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 28 November (5 day trailing average) =    9,491,262   km2

Total Area           9,491,262    km2        496,090    km2   >    2010's average.  711,194    k   >   2017     82,300   k   <    2000's average. Total Gain    84    k    Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain Central Seas__    69    k   gain Other Seas___   -4    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain Greenland____    3    k   gain Barents ______    6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    3    k   gain CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    16    k   gain           Kara_________    22    k   gain Laptev_______    8    k   gain Chukchi______    21    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Area gain down to closer to average  - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Area almost at 2000's average.
This is in contrast to recent slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but probably only for 2 or 3 days more.

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return late next week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.

[gerontocrat]

That little bit of warmth in Hudson Bay continues to have an effect

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC DAILY EXTENT gain has slowed right down (as has JAXA) but in contrast with strong area gain.
A few more days of low gain would move 2018 a few places up the table.

Date         Extent   Daily Change 21-Nov-18   10.422   0.114 22-Nov-18   10.595   0.173 23-Nov-18   10.575   -0.020 24-Nov-18   10.655   0.080 25-Nov-18   10.716   0.061 26-Nov-18   10.745   0.029 27-Nov-18   10.800   0.055 28-Nov-18   10.803   0.003

[gerontocrat]

The Kara Sea has been part of the extreme area gain recently.
2018 has been a very different year, late melt, down like a cliff, a long minimum, and then back up the cliff.

[Alexander555]

The warmer water from the Atlantic keeps it open longer i would think. And as soon as the freeze kicks in, the sun is already further down. And that makes probably that steep clif up.

[Alexander555]

If you would put all the data from the 1990, 2000, 2010 average in a graph. Would there be more years like 2018 for the Kara Sea ?

[sedziobs]

I would think decade averages would reduce the cliff steepness.  It's possible that most years are as steep as Kara, but varying cliff date ranges smooth out the average.

[be cause]

Zack Labe's twitter on 21st Nov. puts this years Hudson ice into perspective ; showing as it does all years since 1979 . Currently well BEHIND a number of the earlier years , this year is unlikely to lead to the end of the world as we know it no matter how much noise bbr makes between his 'breaks' .
Further north I miss A-team's snow coverage info as I guess the fast freeze has led to less snow over land and ice . This may lead to lower albedo come next spring and more melt ponds .. we shall see ..

[Neven]

There's a good snow thread over here.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 29^th, 2018:
     10,540,392 km², an increase of 47,315 km².
     2018 is the 9^th lowest on record.

     There is no official value on 2007. Average used.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,540,392 km2（November 29, 2018）

- Extent increase at 47 k is 38 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 96 k (1.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 60.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.43 million km2 (550k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.23 million km2, (350k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still above average. But for the seventh day extent gain is again well below average. Not just a blip - but has the extreme gain come to an end?

On average (last 10 years) well over half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 102 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1.5 to +2 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[be cause]

crawling our way back to 2nd lowest ? b.c.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 28 November (5 day trailing average) =    9,558,512   km2

Total Area           9,558,512    km2        477,926    km2   >    2010's average.  664,729    k   >   2017 -81,196    k   <    2000's average. Total Gain    67    k    Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain Central Seas__    46    k   gain Other Seas___   -1    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    20    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Chukchi______    16    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area gain down much closer to average  - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Area almost at 2000's average.
This is in contrast to recent slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but probably only for a day or so more.

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 to +2 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return next mid-week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 30^th, 2018:
     10,605,546 km², an increase of 65,154 km².
     2018 is the 9^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,605,546 km2（November 30, 2018）

- Extent increase at 65 k is 16 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 80 k (1.3%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 60.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.41 million km2 (530k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.20 million km2, (320k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just above average. But for the eighth day extent gain is again below average, but not by as much. Not just a blip - but is this period of below average gain ending as freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) well over half of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 102 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +2 to +2.5 celsius  for the next few days.
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ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
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[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 30 November (5 day trailing average) =    9,605,569   km2

Total Area           9,605,569    km2        441,132    km2   >    2010's average.  623,056    k   >   2017 -103,904    k   <    2000's average. Total Gain    47    k    Peripheral Seas    18    k   gain Central Seas__    23    k   gain Other Seas___    7    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain Greenland____   -3    k   loss Barents ______    4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss           Kara_________    15    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______    11    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Area gain well below average (by 35k) - not a clue why, as no dramatic changes in weather.
Area almost at 2000's average.
This is now in line with  recent slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but now looks like going up (still well below average). But screwed up bbr's forecast by about a week.
Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 to +2.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return next mid-week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 1^st, 2018:
     10,609,502 km², an increase of only 3,956 km².
     2018 is the 9^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,609,502 km2（December 1, 2018）

- Extent increase at 4 k is 70 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 10 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 61.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.34 million km2 (460k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.13 million km2, (260k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just above average. But for the ninth day extent gain is again below average, and by a lot. Not just a blip - but will this period of below average gain end as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 100 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse and then back to low freezing some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31. My next post on this thread is about the possible outcomes for New Year's Eve.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +2 to +2.5 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
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[gerontocrat]

A few days ago I posted on the Dec poll thread a couple of tables on possible outcomes of extent at Dec 31 from previous years' data.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2451.msg182535.html#msg182535)

Since then, things have changed a bit due to below average extent increase. The Dec 31 extent now average at 12.4 million km2 (as opposed to 12.5) and 6th lowest (as opposed to 9th). However, the range is still +/- 0.45 million from that average result.

So roll up, roll up and make your vote on that thread! Put your vote where your opinion is! Self-humiliation is good for the soul.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 1 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,638,513   km2

Total Area           9,638,513    km2        395,278    km2   >    2010's average.  582,019    k   >   2017 -142,790    k   <    2000's average. Total Gain    33    k    Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain Central Seas__    6    k   gain Other Seas___    16    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______    1    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss           Kara_________    12    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    7    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    13    k   gain

Area gain well below average (by 46k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average.
This is now in line with  recent slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but now looks like going up (still below average gain). But screwed up bbr's forecast by about a week.
Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 to +2.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return next mid-week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.

[gerontocrat]

November has passed, so time for a full set of NSIDC Area Graphs (plus a look at what might happen during December)

The Pacific.
The Okhotsk - if freezes early, apparently it helps to guide storms towards the Bering Strait, promoting slow freeze and early melt. A bit below average area gain at the moment.

Bering Sea - very much below average area gain at the moment.

Chukchi - much depends on SSTs, any thick (and other) ice pushed into it from the Beaufort, and if southerly winds come in from the Bering. Well below 2010's average area and at average area gain at the moment.

[gerontocrat]

November has passed, so time for a full set of NSIDC Area Graphs (plus a look at what might happen during December)

The Atlantic Front.

Greenland Sea - Very much affected by amount of ice coming down the Fram Strait. But excluding that seems to show the sea is losing ice and may stay in record territory.

Barents Sea - Below 2010's average area and at or below average area gain at the moment.

Kara Sea. What a surprise. Re-freeze almost complete five weeks early. So further area gain will be minimal.

Laptev Sea  re-freeze complete

[gerontocrat]

November has passed, so time for a full set of NSIDC Area Graphs (plus a look at what might happen during December)

Canada.

Baffin Bay - Strong gain to mid-November followed by average gain. Area currently at 2000's average.

Hudson Bay - a week's blip in gain has delayed the refreeze by a week, but should be complete by end-December at 2000's timetable. BUT highly sensitive to air temperature anomalies in the region.

[gerontocrat]

November has passed, so time for a full set of NSIDC Area Graphs (plus a look at what might happen during December)

Central Arctic Seas

Beaufort Sea -
Canadian Archipelago-
East Siberian Sea -
All nearly completely frozen and earlier than 2010's average date

Central Arctic - dithering at 2010's average. perhaps another 100,000 km2 area gain to go, but could take three months.

[gerontocrat]

November has passed, so time for a full set of NSIDC Area Graphs (plus a look at what might happen during December)

St Lawrence - not in play until January.

Here is a table of complete guesses on the area gain until Dec 31. Believe the table and you will believe anything (even the President of the USA).

Sea    Area gain in Dec? (k km2)
bering   250
chukchi   300
okhotsk   175
   
baffin   200
greenland   100
barents   100
kara           100
   
laptev                    0
beaufort                    0
east siberian            0
canadian archipelago   20
central arctic         100
   
hudson bay         600
st lawrence           15
Total                       1,960

[oren]

Thanks for all of these graphs and analysis Gerontocrat. Very nice end-of-month report.

[Alexander555]

Very nice, it gives a good view where we are.

[Shared Humanity]

Very nice, it gives a good view where we are.

Yes. Pacific and Atlantic fronts are still a cause for concern.