JAXA Analysis:

On April 30^{th}, the year 2016 is the lowest on record, with 12,293,447 km^{2}. 2018 will have to drop a daily average of **54.1K km**^{2}, to continue been the lowest on record on April 30^{th}.

2006 is the second lowest on record on April 30^{th}, with 12,661,451 km^{2}. That is, 368K km^{2} above 2016. So, 2018 will be second lowest on record, if the daily average drop is less than **54.1 km**^{2} but greater than **20.6K km**^{2}.

It is possible that 2018 drops more than 54.1K km^{2} average on the next 11 days, so I do not discard that could continue been the lowest on record. But I see a big probability that the average drop will be more than 20.6K km^{2}. So, I think that -at least- 2018 will be second lowest on record at the end of April.

While the average drop of 2016 was 57.7K km^{2} on April 19-30, the average drop of 2012 was 75.4K km^{2}. So, 2012 is already falling faster than 2006 and 2015-17.