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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: May 28, 2018, 08:27:54 PM »
There is no need to suspect, as Worldview comes in handy. These are not melt ponds with their telltale bluish tinge. When leads open between floes, as is happening in mass in the Beaufort, sea ice concentration goes down. But with NSIDC's large grid of roughly 25 x 25 km, when concentration remains above 15% you get full extent but a reduction in area. Area is a leading indicator of extent at this time of year. Melt ponds and wet snow have much more influence in June-August.
Note: posting this here because of the data discussion. Can be developed further in the melting season thread.

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: May 28, 2018, 09:28:28 PM »
I analysed the last 38 years of JAXA extent date. I took the average values of the 80s, 90s, 00s and 10s (up to now) at each end of a quarter (first table) and in the middle of the quarter (second table) and looked for trends in differences from one season to the next one over these four decades.

Extent [mio km²]            
   March 31   June 30   Sep 30   Dec 31
80s   15,22   11,14   7,76           13,84
90s   14,83   10,48   7,10           13,48
00s   14,24     9,75   5,94           12,88
10s   13,94     8,95   4,95           12,35
Gains (+) and losses (-) [mio km²]            
80s   +1,38      -4,08   -3,38   +6,08
90s   +1,35   -4,35   -3,38   +6,38
00s   +1,36   -4,49   -3,81   +6,94
10s   +1,59   -4,99   -4,00   +7,40
            
Extent [mio km²]            
   Feb 15   May 15   Aug 15   Nov 15
80s   15,32   13,27   7,88           11,00
90s   14,96   12,87   7,24           10,54
00s   14,43   12,43   6,33             9,91
10s   13,84   11,99   5,40            9,26
Gains (+) and losses (-) [mio km²]            
80s   +4,32   -2,05   -5,39   +3,12
90s   +4,42   -2,09   -5,63   +3,30
00s   +4,52   -2,00   -6,10   +3,58
10s   +4,58   -1,85   -6,59   +3,86

From these values I see the sharp decrease in the melting over summer (July/Aug) in the latest decade, but also a pronounced increase in winter and early spring, and - surprisingly - a pronounced slower melting in the period between Feb 15 and May 15 in the latest decade. This is in line with the actual observations of a "slightly slower than average" decrease of sea ice extent in the last weeks.
The generally lower maximum (supposedly more in the periphery than in the CAB) could explain this behaviour (when less ice is available in the more peripherical parts which gain sun and warmth at first then the melting starts a little earlier).
The much lower minima in September also lead to a stronger increase towards the winter which explains the higher gains in the latest decade (compared to the earlier ones).

Just some points to discuss...

kind regards from Germany.


« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 09:39:01 PM by Stephan »
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Pagophilus

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: May 29, 2018, 05:11:12 AM »
This helps me understand why the recent losses in extent can be so sluggish at a time when recent high pressure systems have been hovering around and over the CAB, mainly towards the Pacific side, and storms and warm waters have been going to work on the Atlantic side.  Thank you. (And thank you gerontocrat for your graphs on this subject -- they got me thinking).

There is no need to suspect, as Worldview comes in handy. These are not melt ponds with their telltale bluish tinge. When leads open between floes, as is happening in mass in the Beaufort, sea ice concentration goes down. But with NSIDC's large grid of roughly 25 x 25 km, when concentration remains above 15% you get full extent but a reduction in area. Area is a leading indicator of extent at this time of year. Melt ponds and wet snow have much more influence in June-August.
Note: posting this here because of the data discussion. Can be developed further in the melting season thread.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: May 29, 2018, 05:47:16 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 28th, 2018: 11,018,676 km2, a drop of -29,653 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 441,245 km2 more than 2016 and 47,283 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: May 29, 2018, 02:15:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 May (5 day trailing average)  10,170,053 km2

The first table attached shows how area loss has switched to lower in the peripheral seas and much higher in the Central Seas and is maintaining a 50+k km2 loss per day.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is down to 35k km2, well under 5% of historical average maximum, daily - loss has slowed to 1 to 2k and is more or less irrelevant.
- The Bering Sea area is 4k, and is irrelevant (except to see for how long the vestiges of ice will persist).
- Chukchi and Beaufort Sea losses are modest.

Atlantic Side

- Area loss in the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas seems to have slowed somewhat. Area loss on the last two days was a mere 9k.
- The Laptev Sea lost another 16k on the 28th May, nearly  half the loss of the Central seas.
- The Kara Sea is steadily losing area.
- Other Central Seas area loss is minimal.

Other seas
- St Lawrence continues to hang on to its area of 13k,
- Hudson Bay area loss was 9k per day in the last two days.

GFS from cci-reanalyzer.org shows  there is a believable significant influx of warm air from the Russian side happening now and in the next few days, and warmth looks as if it will continue to hit the southern half of Hudson Bay as well.

GFS continues to predict loads of warmth over most of the Arctic starting in about 7 days. They need a new crystal ball?
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: May 30, 2018, 05:47:29 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 29th, 2018: 10,979,066 km2, a drop of -39,610 km2.
2018 is still the second lowest on record.
2018 has 454,224 km2 more than 2016 and only 18,593 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: May 30, 2018, 10:05:13 AM »
JAXA Extent 10,979,066 km2(May 29, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post :
- Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 2.91 million km2, now 80k below the average for the last 10 years. Consistently slightly slower than average daily melt.
- 2017 was a slow year also, hence 2018 extent is still 369k (3.4%) below 2017,
- 2012 extent was 616k km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by a bit more than 800,000 km2. We are approaching the time (2nd week of June) when 2012 extent loss started to accelerate.
- 2007 has a similar story - extent 589k more than 2018 on this date but melt accelerated later in the season.
- on average 30% of the melting is done for this season - still a long way to go,

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.17 million km2 as opposed to 4.01 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 2.56 to 4.47 million km2.

I am willing to believe GFS (from cci-reanalyzer) as far as Saturday (but no further), that shows large areas of the Arctic getting a dose of real warmth increasing from today onwards. Perhaps a burp upwards in melting?
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: May 31, 2018, 05:50:18 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 30th, 2018: 10,915,129 km2, a drop of -63,937 km2.
2018 is still the second lowest on record.
2018 has 434,439 km2 more than 2016 and 22,971 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: May 31, 2018, 12:21:45 PM »
JAXA Extent 10,915,129 km2(May 30, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post :
- Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 2.98 million km2, now 60k below the average for the last 10 years. Consistently slightly slower than average daily melt.
- 2017 was a slow year also, hence 2018 extent is still 368k (3.4%) below 2017,
- 2012 extent was 600k km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by a bit more than 800,000 km2. We are swiftly approaching the time (2nd week of June) when 2012 extent loss started to accelerate.
- 2007 has a similar story - extent 594k more than 2018 on this date but melt accelerated starting in June,
- on average 30.5% of the melting is done for this season - still a long way to go,

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.15 million km2 as opposed to 3.99 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 2.58 to 4.45 million km2.

I am willing to believe GFS (from cci-reanalyzer) as far as Sunday (but no further), that still  shows large areas of the Arctic getting a dose of real warmth increasing from today onwards (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2). Perhaps a burp upwards in melting of which the 64k on 30th May is the first instalment?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: May 31, 2018, 03:17:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 May (5 day trailing average)   10,030,069 km2

The first table attached shows how area loss has switched to lower in the peripheral seas and much higher in the Central Seas and total area lost an impressive 75k.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is down to 33 k km2, well under 5% of historical average maximum, daily - loss has slowed to 1 to 2k and is more or less irrelevant.
- The Bering Sea area is 4k, and is irrelevant (except to see for how long the vestiges of ice will persist).
- Chukchi and Beaufort Sea losses are modest but consistent.

Atlantic Side

- Area loss in the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas increased to 16 k on the last day.
- The Laptev Sea lost reduced to 8k.
- The Kara Sea is steadily losing area.
- Other Central Seas area loss is going up - a gain 0f 15k on the last day.

Other seas
- St Lawrence has increased area to 16k,
- Hudson Bay area loss has accelerated to 25k on the last day.

GFS from cci-reanalyzer.org shows  there is a believable significant influx of warm air from the Russian side happening now and in the next few days, and warmth looks as if it will continue to hit the southern half of Hudson Bay as well.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2018, 03:48:44 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: May 31, 2018, 06:06:59 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea

Explanatory Note:-

When you look at these graphs you may wonder why I am not using the super graphs from https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional as provided by Wipneus.

Two reasons ;-
- unless I expand them they are too small for my aged eyes (I kid you not),
- they only have recent years.

I developed these graphs so I could see 'em, and to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).

So here goes (this may take a few days).

1) Okhotsk and Bering.
Both are more or less melted out.

The Bering from the beginning of the year has looked like a very different sea from previous years. The maximum extent was less than 50 percent of average maximum, and area went to less than 5% of that maximum by the end of April, more than a month before the 2010's average.
Is that the sign of things to come, or will the sea ice recover?

The Okhotsk started late (it was very cold there early in the season), but finished early, area went to less than 5% of the average maximum by 20th May, some two weeks+ before the 2010's average. The Okhotsk is therefore likely to also be ice-free for more days this year than the 2010's average. Definitely a leader, but not yet kaput.

1) Leaders 2, Laggards Nil

2) Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

The Chukchi is a leader and looks set to continue the increase in ice-free days.
The Beaufort  is a laggard- I think I read from the melting season thread that last year it gained a lot of thick stuff. Will it catch up ?

2) Leaders 1, Laggards 1

c.fwd to next post Leaders 3, Laggards 1
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jdallen

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: May 31, 2018, 06:30:13 PM »
"Beaufort is a laggard", but only by about 75,000Km2.

That's not a lot to make up.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: May 31, 2018, 06:34:13 PM »
"Beaufort is a laggard", but only by about 75,000Km2.

That's not a lot to make up.
No predictions - simply what is at 30th May. (A-team has posted in the melting season thread a super 31 day animation of ice in the Amundsen Gulf - and something is certainly afoot on the Pacific side).
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: May 31, 2018, 07:03:20 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).
-------------
3) Baffin, Greenland and Barents

Baffin - laggard, it has been really cold in that part of Canada,
Greenland - leader, but very little new ice from Fram export.
Barents - laggard, due to big area increase March & April.

3) Leaders 1, Laggards 2

b.fwd from last post Leaders 3, Laggards 1,

c.fwd to next post    Leaders 4, Laggards 3
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: May 31, 2018, 08:28:35 PM »
Gerontocrat, thank you for these wonderful graphs and analysis. Just wanted to throw a quick word on Wipneus' regional charts, they are showing AMSR2 data, with much better resolution than NSIDC, and using Wip's "home brew" algorithm for filtering all kinds of wrong stuff from the data. So indeed unsuitable for your purposes due to lack of long history and due to being incompatible with NSIDC, but very useful for comparing recent years.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #665 on: May 31, 2018, 09:22:05 PM »
Just wanted to throw a quick word on Wipneus' regional charts, they are showing AMSR2 data, with much better resolution than NSIDC, and using Wip's "home brew" algorithm for filtering all kinds of wrong stuff from the data. So indeed unsuitable for your purposes due to lack of long history and due to being incompatible with NSIDC, but very useful for comparing recent years.

It's a case of "horses for courses".  Always a shame when you can't go backwards and use the new technology / software etc on the older data. But for the purpose I am using the graphs for - a longer-term view, the NSIDC data is more than OK.

And we should not complain - but be very thankful for - that the  USAF coughed up the loot to put the satellites up there as far back as 1979 and let NSIDC et al have access to the data.

Will that beneficial synergy survive in today's USA ? Hope so.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #666 on: June 01, 2018, 06:08:32 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 31st, 2018: 10,891,345 km2, a drop of -23,784 km2.
2018 is the third lowest on record.
2018 has 464,301 km2 more than 2016 and 12,774 km2 more than 2015.

It is interesting to note that 2016, 2015 and 2018 are so low in values, that the fourth lowest is the 2010's average published by ADS NIPR. And 2018 is 254,489 km2 less than 2010's average.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DavidR

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #667 on: June 01, 2018, 06:21:21 AM »
I expect an unspectacular decline in May due to the lack of ice in the Bering with the extent being somewhere near the 2015 (10.8-11.0M) figure by May 31st.   

I think I nailed it! Only a 13K difference according to Jaxa.   May be the only time though.
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Brigantine

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #668 on: June 01, 2018, 07:31:09 AM »
the fourth lowest is the 2010's average published by ADS NIPR. And 2018 is 254,489 km2 less than 2010's average.
To clarify - that's the 2010-2017 average right? 2018 data hasn't been included in the average yet?

DavidR

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #669 on: June 01, 2018, 09:15:40 AM »
the fourth lowest is the 2010's average published by ADS NIPR. And 2018 is 254,489 km2 less than 2010's average.
To clarify - that's the 2010-2017 average right? 2018 data hasn't been included in the average yet?
No that average includes 2018, if you  leave 2018 out, 2011 scrapes in below the average and 2010 just  misses out.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #670 on: June 01, 2018, 11:08:39 AM »
JAXA Extent 10,891,345 km2(May 31, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post :
- Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 3.00 million km2, now 100k below the average for the last 10 years. Consistently slightly slower than average daily melt.
- 2017 was a slow year also, hence 2018 extent is still 320k (2.9%) below 2017,
- 2012 extent was 590k km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by a bit more than 800,000 km2. We are swiftly approaching the time (2nd week of June) when 2012 extent loss started to accelerate.
- 2007 has a similar story - extent 580k more than 2018 on this date but melt accelerated starting in June,
- on average 31% of the melting is done for this season - still a long way to go,

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.19 million km2 as opposed to 4.03 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 2.6 to 4.5 million km2.

i was surprised by the May 31 small extent drop. But I am still willing to believe GFS (from cci-reanalyzer) as far as Monday (but no further), that still  shows large areas of the Arctic getting a dose of real warmth increasing from today onwards.

Perhaps a burp upwards in melting will happen, perhaps not.

ps: On May 31 Arctic Sea Ice extent became lower than Antarctic Sea Ice Extent.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #671 on: June 01, 2018, 12:06:03 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

4) Kara and Laptev Seas

Kara - laggard, extremely so.
Laptev - leader, very much so.

4) Leaders 1, Laggards 1

b.fwd from last post Leaders 4, Laggards 3

c.fwd to next post    Leaders 5, Laggards 4

_____________________________________
Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #672 on: June 01, 2018, 12:11:50 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

5) East-Siberian, Canadian Archipelago, CENTRAL ARCTIC

East-Siberian - not started yet,
Canadian Archipelago -- not started yet,

CENTRAL ARCTIC The most important as when it goes, so does the Arctic Ocean. And it is a leader. Look at the last graph and tell me the Arctic Sea Ice is not heading for oblivion at least in summer.

5) Leaders 1, Laggards 0, Non-Players 2

b.fwd from last post Leaders 5, Laggards 4

c.fwd to next post    Leaders 6, Laggards 4, Non-players 2

_____________________________________
Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #673 on: June 01, 2018, 05:22:59 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

6) Hudson Bay and St Lawrence

Both are oddities.

Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitude (about 55 to 65) it is late to start. Damn cold for damn long in that part of Canada - not called "The Barrens" for nothing. Brrrr. High snow-fall and persistent cold meant a late start to melting (pace bbr 2314). Now catch-up taking place but still a laggard.

St Lawrence, at just 48 degrees north, is the smallest Arctic sea, a maximum of 150,000 km2 of sea ice. So it is sort of insignificant. It was slow to start melting due to the high snowfall and persistent cold, got ahead of the game and has now stalled at just over 10k sea ice area, i.e. a non-player.


6) Leaders 0, Laggards 1, Non-Players 1

b.fwd from last post Leaders 6, Laggards 4, Non-players 2

Overall Totals    Leaders 6, Laggards 5, Non-players 3

But of them all, I guess that in the end what happens to the Central Arctic perhaps matters most.

You won't see this exercise again for some time - too much like hard work
_____________________________________
Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).
« Last Edit: June 01, 2018, 05:30:49 PM by gerontocrat »
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bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #674 on: June 01, 2018, 06:22:20 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

6) Hudson Bay and St Lawrence

Both are oddities.

Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitude (about 55 to 65) it is late to start. Damn cold for damn long in that part of Canada - not called "The Barrens" for nothing. Brrrr. High snow-fall and persistent cold meant a late start to melting (pace bbr 2314). Now catch-up taking place but still a laggard.

St Lawrence, at just 48 degrees north, is the smallest Arctic sea, a maximum of 150,000 km2 of sea ice. So it is sort of insignificant. It was slow to start melting due to the high snowfall and persistent cold, got ahead of the game and has now stalled at just over 10k sea ice area, i.e. a non-player.


6) Leaders 0, Laggards 1, Non-Players 1

b.fwd from last post Leaders 6, Laggards 4, Non-players 2

Overall Totals    Leaders 6, Laggards 5, Non-players 3

But of them all, I guess that in the end what happens to the Central Arctic perhaps matters most.

You won't see this exercise again for some time - too much like hard work
_____________________________________
Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).

I think Kara is equally odd, and the situation there seems similar to Hudson Bay as well (relatively low latitude, but anomalous snowcover this year!)

The May pause in NA's SWE volume #s is even more bizarre, but probably the reason this is happening (IMO).



You can see that both Hudson and Kara are still benefitting from anomalous pack/adjacent land with very high albedo relative to normal. SWE hemispherically is over 2X normal, but the key holdout areas that aren't full of 10K'+ mountains are adjacent to Hudson, and the Kara.



This is not to drag the thread OT into snowcover, it is merely to state X reason why Y outcome seems to be occurring. With anomalies now worsening again, perhaps June will prove even more bizarre -- the stage certainly seems to be set for worsening high-latitude ice melt, while HB/Kara see general weather that is much more favorable to preservation of ice.

I think that as we head deeper into summer, this will inevitably end, but the problem is that June is the month that the High Arctic normally needs shielding the most -- the fact that it will bear the brunt of both continental and oceanic heat, instead of the peripheral seas, could setup a late-summer extent/area cliff as HB/Kara eventually melt out anyways.

Bringing the convo back to ice-specific data, Hudson Bay's current area is the highest in 25 years, with the exception of 2014.



Furthermore, it looks like current area anomalies versus 1981-2010 normals are focused in Baffin, not Hudson. I would think the reds in Hudson are due to persistent NW'erly cold winds partially derived from the anomalous snowcover in Nunavut. This has had the effect of thickening most of the ice, while leaving a few bare batches.



It may take another few weeks, but I would bet that by early July, we will see some very impressive positive area anomalies across both Hudson and Baffin.

« Last Edit: June 01, 2018, 06:31:29 PM by bbr2314 »

ghoti

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #675 on: June 01, 2018, 07:36:19 PM »
I'd love to see the effect of Alberto on Hudson Bay - it just brought rain there but World View just shows the associated cloud cover.

I'd expect we could see what looks like melt ponds at least on the James Bay part. Though rain might just e hidden by snow cover.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #676 on: June 01, 2018, 07:59:35 PM »
I'd love to see the effect of Alberto on Hudson Bay
The seven day Environment Canada forecast for Moosonee, at the edge of James Bay, calls for mostly sunny and temperatures in the double digits. I expect that there will indeed be melt ponds- and general melting. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-113_metric_e.html

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #677 on: June 01, 2018, 09:47:12 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

[...]

Very well done, gerontocrat. Thanks a million!
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #678 on: June 02, 2018, 05:49:18 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

June 1st, 2018: 10,820,711 km2, a drop of -70,634 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record again.
2018 has 415,625 km2 more than 2016 and 25,074 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DavidR

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #679 on: June 02, 2018, 06:15:43 AM »
2018 Quickly regains its presumptive second ranking and enters a month where the two leading years 2015 and 2016 have very low melt rates. If 2018 keeps up its dogged decline who knows where it will be by the end of the month. Looking at the IJIS record a decline of at least 2M seems probable putting 2018 well ahead by July 1st.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #680 on: June 03, 2018, 06:11:13 AM »
It seems that we will not have ADS NIPR JAXA data today…  :'(
You can try it yourself. Good luck!

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #681 on: June 03, 2018, 02:51:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2nd June (5 day trailing average)  9,855,689 km2

Area loss at around 60k per day for the last 3 days
Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is down to 26 k km2, well under 5% of historical average maximum, daily - loss has slowed to 1 to 2k and is more or less irrelevant.
- The Bering Sea area is 5k, and is irrelevant (except to see for how long the vestiges of ice will persist).
- Chukchi and Beaufort Sea losses are modest but consistent. - Pacific warmth surely must hit these seas over the next few days.
Atlantic Side

- Area loss in the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas increased to 27 k on the last day.
- The Laptev Sea lost reduced to 8k.
- The Kara Sea is steadily losing area.
- Other Central Seas area loss is going up - a loss of 18k on the last day, mostly in the ESS and Central Arctic (see graph).

Other seas
- St Lawrence is at least losing ice, down to 11k,
- Hudson Bay area loss is significant.

GFS from cci-reanalyzer.org still shows  there is a believable significant influx of warm air from Eastern Russia and the Pacific Ocean happening now and in the next few days, and warmth looks as if it will continue to hit the southern half of Hudson Bay as well.
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Pagophilus

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #682 on: June 03, 2018, 11:55:16 PM »
Worldview confirms what AMSR2 hints ... the north Kara Sea is now a bowl of ice cubes.   The first image is a bit hazy in places, so I magnified the hazy portion, and played with the contrast to produce the second image.  The field of ice floes go from the Russian coast all the way out towards Franz Josef Land (and from there it is open ocean to Svalbard).  Maybe there is a little refreezing in there, but that can't last long.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2018, 04:43:21 AM by Pagophilus »

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #683 on: June 04, 2018, 03:18:21 AM »
Worldview confirms what AMSR2 hints ... the north Kara Sea is now a bowl of ice cubes.   The first image is a bit hazy in places, so I magnified the hazy portion, played with the contrast and the broken floes all the way out towards Svalbard are clearly visible.  Maybe there is a little refreezing in there, but it can't last long.

a good example to illustrate that extent number don't tell the whole story and j can see that area as well does not entirel mirror the poor state of the ice once the gaps in the ice are to small for sensor resolution

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #684 on: June 04, 2018, 05:56:42 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

Day             Extent            Drop
June 1st    10,820,711   
June 2nd   10,736,166     -84,545
June 3rd   10,691,716     -44,450


June 3rd.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 340,996 km2 more than 2016 and 61,344 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #685 on: June 04, 2018, 07:44:49 AM »
On behalf of all, thank you again JCG and grntc for your timely data updates.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #686 on: June 04, 2018, 08:55:20 AM »
Sorry Juan CG, but we it should be second lowest for June 3......

Thank you for posting and updating us about the SIE in Arctic :)

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #687 on: June 04, 2018, 12:31:08 PM »
JAXA Extent 10,691,716 km2(June 3, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post :
- Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 3.20 million km2, down to 50k below the average for the last 10 years. Consistently slightly slower than average daily melt.
- 2017 was a slow year also, hence 2018 extent is still 331k (3.0%) below 2017,
- 2012 extent was 662k km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by a bit more than 800,000 km2. We are swiftly approaching the time (2nd week of June) when 2012 extent loss started to accelerate.
- 2007 has a similar story - extent 652k more than 2018 on this date but melt accelerated starting very soon,
- on average 33% of the melting is done for this season - still a long way to go,

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.14 million km2 as opposed to 3.97 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 2.5 to 4.4 million km2.

GFS (from cci-reanalyzer) still  shows large areas of the Arctic getting a dose of real warmth increasing from today onwards. I am surprised that the effect on extent loss data is not obvious yet.

Perhaps a burp upwards in melting will happen, perhaps not.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #688 on: June 04, 2018, 06:52:41 PM »
The Central Arctic Sea shows the most dramatic difference between Area and Extent loss. Here it is. (NSIDC data)
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #689 on: June 04, 2018, 08:13:19 PM »
With the CAB being attacked from three sides (Atlantic, Pacific, and “the hole” off the central Russian coast) ....  another new record low in ice at the end of the season becomes more probable.  The next week of warmth along the central and eastern Russian coast will not help things as well ...
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #690 on: June 05, 2018, 05:59:32 AM »
On behalf of all, thank you again JCG and grntc for your timely data updates.
You are welcome, Oren.
I am glad to contribute on this Forum. I have learn a lot and it also matters to me a lot!  ;)


[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

June 4th, 2018: 10,649,695 km2, a drop of -42,021 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 295,438 km2 more than 2016 and 39,273 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #691 on: June 05, 2018, 10:43:06 AM »
Thanks for the thanks about these posts, not entirely deserved as I am feeding my own curiosity about these events by doing the analysis.

JAXA Extent 10,649,695 km2(June 4, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post :
- Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 3.24 million km2, down to 40k below the average for the last 10 years. Consistently slightly slower than average daily melt.
- 2017 was a slow year also, hence 2018 extent is still 346k (3.0%) below 2017,
- 2012 extent was 703k km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by a bit more than 800,000 km2. We are swiftly approaching the time (2nd week of June) when 2012 extent loss started to accelerate.
- 2007 has a similar story - extent 637k more than 2018 on this date but melt accelerated starting very soon,
- on average 33% of the melting is done for this season - still a long way to go, on average 100 days.

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.14 million km2 as opposed to 3.97 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 2.5 to 4.4 million km2.

GFS (from cci-reanalyzer) still  shows large areas of the Arctic getting a dose of real warmth increasing from today onwards.

I am surprised that the effect on extent loss data is not obvious yet. Perhaps the effect on the seas in the CAB is more a case of thinning, fracturing and opening of leads rather than larger areas of open water at less than 15% ice covered apearing. Perhaps a burp upwards in area loss will show up first, perhaps not. But something has got to give way - see temp map for tomorrow.
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #692 on: June 05, 2018, 02:42:38 PM »
This Greenland Sea situation starts to look like it could be called the Icy Atlantic and not anymore Exit of Arctic Ocean. Thanking gerontocrat too, having done some reports of the whole Arctic on one earlier year I know it's not just adding the numbers to appropriate columns, graphing them again etc. Big hand for these border sea graphs.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #693 on: June 05, 2018, 03:46:11 PM »
The Greenland sea situation is extreme indeed, but not totally unique. 2016 was quite similar though a teeny bit higher, at least in terms of AMSR2 area.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #694 on: June 05, 2018, 04:16:13 PM »
Arctic Basin (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and CAB) extent is lowest for the date. Area withholds, waiting for a June cliff.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #695 on: June 05, 2018, 10:48:36 PM »
That interdecile range doesn't look right. I count what looks like a quintile (8) rather than a decile (4) worth of data lines below it on some dates.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #696 on: June 06, 2018, 05:49:16 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

June 5th, 2018: 10,585,063 km2, a drop of -64,632 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has  231,748 km2 more than 2016 and 32,564 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #697 on: June 06, 2018, 07:32:32 AM »
JAXA short term analysis - May 8th, 2018.

...
So, it is almost sure that 2018 will be the second lowest on record, at least on the following two weeks.

The interesting question is where 2018 will be on June 10th, when the years 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2017 are even, on the second lowest on record position, while 2016 starts to lose the first lowest on record position.
JAXA short term analysis - June 5th, 2018.

Until today, 2018 manage to be the second lowest on record almost every day (just one day it was the third lowest).

What will happen now?

We have reach the point where the two competences (2016 and 2015) stall at the same time. The average daily drop for 2015 for the next seven days is -22.8K km2 and for 2016 is -31.8K km2.

On the other hand, it is the time when 2012 start to lose extent at a high speed. On average, 2012 had 130.5K km2 daily drops on the following 8 days!  A total of 1,043,983 km2:o So, even that 2012 is not the leader at the end of these 8 days, it starts to be the competence that we should follow.

So, what do I expect?

There is a lot of heat in the Arctic today, so I don’t think that 2018 will stall, like 2015 and 2016 did. So, 2018 could become the first lowest on record around June 14th, when we have the lowest average daily record drop (-59K km2) to match 2016.

           <------------ Daily Drop ------------->    Avg. Daily Drop
Date   Drop 2015   Drop 2016   Drop 2012   2018 to match 2016
June 6     -28.3            -20.2            -95.3            252.0
June 7       -0.5            -35.3          -144.6            143.6
June 8        1.7            -19.1          -182.4            102.1
June 9       -2.3            -41.3          -152.6              86.9
June 10   -45.9            -47.0          -124.9              78.9
June 11   -36.5            -35.4          -102.2              71.7
June 12   -48.0            -24.4          -122.9              64.9
June 13   -55.1            -29.9          -119.1              60.6
June 14   -65.5            -46.4            -58.0              59.0
June 15   -53.5            -60.6            -31.3              59.1
June 16   -76.3            -62.5            -71.6              59.4
June 17   -69.6            -60.5            -32.9              59.5
June 18   -27.0            -74.3            -53.9              60.7
June 19   -14.2            -65.3            -73.4              61.0
June 20     -9.7            -94.6            -96.2              63.2

« Last Edit: June 06, 2018, 03:32:18 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #698 on: June 06, 2018, 07:44:06 AM »
It seems 2018 is going to miss to the downside the June 11th "meeting point", unless the storm causes temporary dispersion. It could indeed be 1st on record if it doesn't stall.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #699 on: June 06, 2018, 09:17:36 AM »
The 2018 trend line shouldn't stall in the next few days, and so it will shake off 2015. Somehow I don't feel it will go rogue after that, and should be close to the low years at the end of the month (2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2016).
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