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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1500 on: August 25, 2018, 02:20:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,598,859  km2
This is 143 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 33 K ,

Central Seas loss         29 k,
Peripheral Seas loss       0 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas gain             4 k all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3 k, area 64 k, now above 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea gain 1 k, area 29 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea loss 1 k, area 52k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area loss 0 k, area is now 24 k, < 5% of 1980's average maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 4 k, area 28 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea gain 2 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 0 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 18 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 6 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 4 k, Area now 23 k
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of 33 k is above average by about 4k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 45k, above average for the day. But daily extent lost 88 k, after a gain of 54k the day before. End of season wobbles. About 3 weeks or less to go.

It is all about the 4 (?) central seas now. The Beaufort and the CAA have stalled. Is it now just about the ESS and the Central Arctic Sea? The melting season ain't over yet, there was a chorus of fat ladies waiting in the wings for a chance to sing, but I think two just left and may not be coming back.....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1501 on: August 25, 2018, 09:03:51 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT  4,904,571 km2(August 24, 2018)

[...snip...]

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.30 million km2.

JAXA has been staying persistently within the range of 4.2 to 4.3 million km2 for some time now. 

The "story" of this season seems to be that it's been basically a typical 2010s year, except that Hudson and Baffin Bays took longer than usual to melt out -- so in June and July we had first anomalously slow extent loss, then anomalously fast.  But then we got back on the usual track and now it's just marching along as usual.

Of course, having posted this, tomorrow will probably see either a century break or a freak uptick in extent...

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1502 on: August 25, 2018, 09:26:42 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT  4,904,571 km2(August 24, 2018)

[...snip...]

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.30 million km2.

JAXA has been staying persistently within the range of 4.2 to 4.3 million km2 for some time now. 

The "story" of this season seems to be that it's been basically a typical 2010s year, except that Hudson and Baffin Bays took longer than usual to melt out -- so in June and July we had first anomalously slow extent loss, then anomalously fast.  But then we got back on the usual track and now it's just marching along as usual.

Of course, having posted this, tomorrow will probably see either a century break or a freak uptick in extent...

That would be a fine analysis if you ignored the Battle of the Bulge on the Atlantic Front.

bluesky

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1503 on: August 25, 2018, 10:45:51 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT  4,904,571 km2(August 24, 2018)

[...snip...]

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.30 million km2.

JAXA has been staying persistently within the range of 4.2 to 4.3 million km2 for some time now. 

The "story" of this season seems to be that it's been basically a typical 2010s year, except that Hudson and Baffin Bays took longer than usual to melt out -- so in June and July we had first anomalously slow extent loss, then anomalously fast.  But then we got back on the usual track and now it's just marching along as usual.

Of course, having posted this, tomorrow will probably see either a century break or a freak uptick in extent...

That would be a fine analysis if you ignored the Battle of the Bulge on the Atlantic Front.

Would the analysis be slightly different in case we would have a look at the total extent, area, and volume melt from the 2018 maximum to the expected minimum early September, considering that the maximum was really low (at least for extent and area). On the other hand, if there has been less transpolar drift or less area, extent , volume melting through transport through the Fram Strait, maybe the analysis could go the opposite way?

Ned W

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1504 on: August 25, 2018, 11:26:58 PM »
Sorry, I shouldn't have started this in this thread, it's veering into analysis that goes better in the "melt season" thread. 

My fault, but let's take it over there.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1505 on: August 26, 2018, 12:30:33 AM »
Sorry, I shouldn't have started this in this thread, it's veering into analysis that goes better in the "melt season" thread. 

My fault, but let's take it over there.

Agreed...though it might not really fit there either...it is sort of a transition remark.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1506 on: August 26, 2018, 05:53:51 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 25th, 2018: 4,871,597 km2, a drop of -32,974 km2.
2018 is the seventh lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1507 on: August 26, 2018, 10:27:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT  4,904,571 km2(August 24, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 14 k km2  (0.3%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 26 k (0.5 %) above 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a large 404 k km2 (4.3 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 94.6 % of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.33 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.18 to 4.50 million km2 - a narrowing range but still raising the possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling waned but then waxed consistently for some time - melting has slowed to just below average for several days. There is, on average, just over 5% (18 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss do a 2017 and sharply reduce? Yes.

A September minimum in the range of 4.00 to 4.50 million km2 seems very probable, with the result of least drama at 4th place or higher. It also seems highly probable that the data will show that melt was below average, considerably so.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1508 on: August 26, 2018, 02:41:20 PM »
WHOOPS!

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,596,592  km2
This is 175 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 2,267 Km2 , which is rather small

Central Seas GAIN        1 k,
Peripheral Seas loss      1 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss            2 k,  all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3 k, area 61 k, now above 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea gain 0 k, area 29 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea loss 1 k, area 51k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 2 k, area is now 27 k, < 5% of 1980's average maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 3 k, area 25 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea gain 4 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 3 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 16 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea GAIN 14 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 2 k, Area now 20 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of a mere 2k is below average by about 25k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 43k, below average for the day. But daily extent lost 56k after a loss of 88 k and a gain of 54k the days before. End of season wobbles. About 3 weeks or less to go.

It is all about the 4 (?) central seas now. The Beaufort and the CAA and now the Central Arctic have stalled. Is it now just about the ESS ? The melting season ain't over yet, there was a chorus of fat ladies waiting in the wings for a chance to sing, but I think two left and may not be coming back and another one is on the way out.....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1509 on: August 26, 2018, 03:05:49 PM »
NSIDC daily sea ice area is currently 3.64 million km2, which is 9th lowest for the date.  (It was briefly 6th lowest on Wednesday.)

Regarding the minimum:  The year-to-date minimum for 2018 so far is 3.56 million km2 on 22 August.  That would rank as the 10th lowest minimum so far, but it will probably become 9th lowest soon, if it drops below the 2009 minimum of 3.55 million km2.  To become 8th lowest or lower, it should drop below the 2015 minimum of 3.14 million km2.  It remains to be seen whether that is possible in the next few weeks.



gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1510 on: August 26, 2018, 04:15:14 PM »
The Central Arctic Sea Area and Extent continue to show different trends vs the 2010's average.
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mostly_lurking

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1511 on: August 26, 2018, 04:43:30 PM »
NSIDC daily sea ice area is currently 3.64 million km2, which is 9th lowest for the date.  (It was briefly 6th lowest on Wednesday.)


or 4th highest this date since 2007  ;D
Why not be positive?

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1512 on: August 27, 2018, 06:00:38 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 26th, 2018: 4,860,720 km2, a drop of -10,877 km2.
2018 is the seventh lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1513 on: August 27, 2018, 09:16:26 AM »
Can someone post the resulting minimums of JAXA extent data in previous years?
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pauldry600

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1514 on: August 27, 2018, 09:55:04 AM »
Yes I was thinking that too

Wouldnt think therel be much more  big drops

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1515 on: August 27, 2018, 11:20:52 AM »
Can someone post the resulting minimums of JAXA extent data in previous years?

The September minimums are mentioned in the opening post of the monthly JAXA polls.
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Brigantine

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1516 on: August 27, 2018, 11:33:08 AM »
Can someone post the resulting minimums of JAXA extent data in previous years?

Jaxa September minimums for the past 15  years have been:
(from the poll OP, re-ordered and 2018 latest value added for context)

2003     5933760
2004     5683663
2006     5625046
2005     5179300
2009     5054055
2014     4884120
2018     4860720 [to date]
2013     4809288
2010     4622092
2008     4500623
2017     4472225
2011     4269199
2015     4257003
2007     4065739
2016     4017264
2012     3177455

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1517 on: August 27, 2018, 11:46:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT  4,860,720 km2(August 26, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 65 k km2  (1.3%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 49 k (1.0 %) above 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a large 455 k km2 (4.8 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 95.2% of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.38 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.22 to 4.52 million km2 - a narrowing range but now raising a real possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling has waxed consistently for some time - melting slowed to just below average for several days and is now nearly stalled. There is, on average, just under 5% (17 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss do a 2017 and sharply reduce? Yes.

A September minimum in a higher range of 4.25 to 4.50 million km2 seems very probable, with the result of least drama at higher than 4th place. It also seems highly probable that the data will show that melt was well below average, considerably so.
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pauldry600

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1518 on: August 27, 2018, 12:27:31 PM »
A complete waste of a melt season

Before it even began i thought extent would min at 4.5m

Its worse being closer to the mark than being bang out like I was last year

Even though one could argue that lower than average melt is good the Arctic is fooling us all. Its retaining extent but losing ice in places that have rarely seen ice loss ever.

E.g North Greenland last week

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1519 on: August 27, 2018, 02:06:15 PM »
Double WHOOPS!

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,596,199  km2
This is 213 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 393 Km2 , which is rather minuscle

Central Seas GAIN        3 k,
Peripheral Seas loss      1 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss            2 k,  all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 4 k, area 57 k, now just above 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 1 k, area 28 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea loss 0 k, area 50k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 1 k, area is now 28 k, < 5% of maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 3 k, area 22 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea gain 6 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 1 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 18 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea GAIN 19 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 2 k, Area now 18 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of a mere 0.3 k is below average by about 40k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 23k, 25k below average for the day. Daily extent loss was 40k, (after 56k, 88 k losses and a gain of 54k the days before). End of season wobbles. Less than 3 weeks  to go.

It is all about the 4 (?) central seas now. The Beaufort and the CAA and now the Central Arctic have stalled. Is it now just about the ESS ? The melting season is not over yet, there was a chorus of fat ladies waiting in the wings for a chance to sing, but I think two left and may not be coming back and another one also left .....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1520 on: August 27, 2018, 02:23:01 PM »
Herewith the current area graphs for those 4 seas that are the last bastions of Arctic Sea Ice.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1521 on: August 28, 2018, 05:55:09 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 27th, 2018: 4,832,062 km2, a drop of -28,658 km2.
2018 is the seventh lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1522 on: August 28, 2018, 06:48:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT  4,832,062 km2(August 27, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 88 k km2  (1.8%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 20 k (0.4 %) above 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a large 472 k km2 (5.0 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 95.7% of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.40 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.27 to 4.50 million km2 - a narrowing range but now raising a real possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling has waxed consistently for some time - melting has slowed to below average for many days. There is, on average, just over 4% (16 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss continue to do a 2017 and sharply reduce? Yes.

A September minimum in a higher range of 4.25 to 4.50 million km2 seems very probable, with the result of least drama at 6th place. It also seems highly probable that the data will show that melt was well below average, very much so.

EDIT: Previous day's Arc2 graph posted in error. Correction
« Last Edit: August 28, 2018, 11:22:23 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1523 on: August 28, 2018, 02:44:05 PM »
Triple WHOOPS

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,589,403  km2
This is 245 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss 7k , which is rather small

Central Seas loss          4 k,
Peripheral Seas loss      2 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss            1 k,  all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 5 k, area 53 k, just above 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 1 k, area 27 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea loss 1 k, area 50k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area loss 1 k, area 27 k, < 5% of maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 1 k, area 21 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea gain 3 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 0 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 13 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea GAIN 12 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 0 k, Area 18 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of a mere 7 k is below average by about 30k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 29k, 30k below average for the day. Daily extent loss was 15k, (after 40k, 56k, 88 k losses and a gain of 54k the days before). End of season wobbles. Less than 3 weeks  to go.

It is all about the 4 (?) central seas now. The Beaufort and the CAA and now the Central Arctic have stalled. Is it now just about the ESS ? The melting season is not over yet, or is it near as dammit?  There was a chorus of fat ladies waiting in the wings for a chance to sing, but I think now three have left and are not coming back....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1524 on: August 28, 2018, 10:30:49 PM »
If I look at the temperature and ice speed and drift data for the next days, the only relevant decline in Arctic Sea Ice can be expected in the ESS which is pushed eastward into N Chukchi Sea and clearing up east of the N. Sib. Islands. So the only "lady still waiting to sing" will certainly be the ESS.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1525 on: August 29, 2018, 06:01:14 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 28th, 2018: 4,804,103 km2, a drop of -27,959 km2.
2018 is the sixth lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Brigantine

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1526 on: August 29, 2018, 08:26:47 AM »
Now below the 2013 minimum.

2003     5933760
2004     5683663
2006     5625046
2005     5179300
2009     5054055
2014     4884120
2013     4809288
2018     4804103 [to date]
2010     4622092
2008     4500623
2017     4472225
2011     4269199
2015     4257003
2007     4065739
2016     4017264
2012     3177455

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1527 on: August 29, 2018, 08:39:45 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 4,804,103 km2(August 28, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 99 k km2  (2.1%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 9 k (0.2 %) below 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a large 480 k km2 (5.0 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 96.0% of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.41 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.29 to 4.53 million km2 - a narrowing range but now raising a real possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling has waxed consistently for some time - melting has slowed to below average for many days. There is, on average, just  4% (15 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss continue to do a 2017 and sharply reduce? Yes.

A September minimum in a higher range of 4.25 to 4.50 million km2 seems very probable, with the result of least drama at 6th place. It also seems highly probable that the data will show that melt was well below average, very much so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Rob Dekker

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1528 on: August 29, 2018, 10:44:54 AM »
Thank you Juan García and gerontocrat for your daily updates.
Very much appreciated !
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1529 on: August 29, 2018, 03:41:19 PM »
Triple and 1/2 WHOOPS

NSIDC Total Area as at 28 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,561,556  km2
This is 256 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date

 3,561,556    -27,847    -882    -21,797    -5,168

Total Area loss             28k , which is about 10 k below average

Central Seas loss          22 k,
Peripheral Seas loss      1 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss            5 k,  all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 5 k, area 48 k, just above 2010's average.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 1 k, area 26 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea loss 0 k, area 49k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area loss 1 k, area 27 k, < 5% of maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 1 k, area 20 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 2 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 1 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 11 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 4 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 5 k, Area 13 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of a 28 k is below average by about 10k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 43k, 10k below average for the day. Daily extent loss was 10k, (after 15k, 40k, 56k, 88 k losses and a gain of 54k the days before). End of season wobbles. 2 weeks  to go?

It is was (?) all about the 4 (?) central seas now. The Beaufort and the CAA and now the Central Arctic have stalled. Is it now just about the ESS ? The melting season is not over yet, or is it near as dammit?  There was a chorus of fat ladies waiting in the wings for a chance to sing, but I think now three have left and are not coming back....
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 03:57:16 PM by gerontocrat »
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miki

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1530 on: August 29, 2018, 04:26:53 PM »
Thank you Juan García and gerontocrat for your daily updates.
Very much appreciated !

Truly. Thanks!

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1531 on: August 29, 2018, 06:21:38 PM »
Indeed, Juan and gerontocrat have to be thanked for their continuous and valuable contributions in this thread!
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Hautbois

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1532 on: August 29, 2018, 11:17:40 PM »
Running back chart update. I thought I'd add in the 2010s average curve, especially as 2018 has been showing it considerable devotion over the last week or two.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1533 on: August 30, 2018, 05:55:32 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 29th, 2018: 4,793,787 km2, a drop of -10,316 km2.
2018 is the seventh lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1534 on: August 30, 2018, 09:33:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 4,793,787 km2(August 29, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 126 k km2  (2.6%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 18 k (0.4 %) above 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a very large 506 k km2 (5.3 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 96.4% of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.43 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.27 to 4.54 million km2 - now raising a real possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling has waxed consistently for some time - melting has slowed to below average for many days. There is, on average, just under 4% (14 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss continue to do a 2017 and sharply reduce as it has been doing for some time? Yes.

A September minimum in a higher range of 4.25 to 4.50 million km2 seems very probable, with the result of least drama at 6th or 7th place. It also seems certain that the data will show that melt was well below average, very much so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1535 on: August 30, 2018, 02:27:41 PM »
Triple and 1/2 WHOOPS Loss up a bit

NSIDC Total Area as at 29 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,520,440  km2

This is 245 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss             41k , which is about 10 k above average

Central Seas loss          41 k,
Peripheral Seas gain        1 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss               1 k, all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 5 k, area 43 k, just above 5% of maximum.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 1 k, area 25 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea gain 1 k, area 50k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 1 k, area 27 k, < 5% of maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 2 k, area 19 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 8 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 1 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 10 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 18 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 1 k, Area 12 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of 41 k is above average by about 10k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 31 k, 17k below average for the day. Daily extent loss was 35k, (after 10k, 15k, 40k, 56k, the days before). End of season wobbles. 2 weeks  to go?

It is was is (?) all about the 4 (?) central seas now. The Beaufort and the CAA and now the Central Arctic had stalled, but now the Beaufort and Central Arctic Seas are showing losses. I am giving up making comments about the end of the season.. a mug's game.

EDIT: So much for auto-pilot, tables including the 29th August now attached
« Last Edit: August 30, 2018, 04:05:16 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ned W

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1536 on: August 30, 2018, 02:49:26 PM »
JAXA [forecasted minimum] has been staying persistently within the range of 4.2 to 4.3 million km2 for some time now. 

... and then, the next day:

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.33 million km2.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.38 million km2.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.40 million km2.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.41 million km2.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.43 million km2.

 ::)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1537 on: August 30, 2018, 03:21:36 PM »
Ah well, Ned W, ..it happens.

I will admit I never expected JAXA extent loss to be half a million km2 below the 10 year average, and I did not expect to see a sea that just would not melt.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Downpuppy

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1538 on: August 30, 2018, 03:44:33 PM »
Um, Gerontocrat? It looks like you may have reposted yesterday's area table.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1539 on: August 30, 2018, 04:07:15 PM »
Um, Gerontocrat? It looks like you may have reposted yesterday's area table.
You are right - I should not try being clever with Excel's terrible macro system, should I.
Back to doing it the old-fashioned way.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Downpuppy

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1540 on: August 30, 2018, 07:47:27 PM »
Thanks! I do like your tables.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1541 on: August 31, 2018, 06:07:26 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 30th, 2018: 4,768,735 km2, a drop of -25,052 km2.
2018 is the seventh lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1542 on: August 31, 2018, 06:38:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 4,768,735 km2(August 30, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 140 k km2  (2.9%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 45 k (0.9 %) above 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a very large 521 k km2 (5.4 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 96.8% of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.45 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.26 to 4.53 million km2 - now raising a real possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling has waxed consistently for some time - melting has slowed to below average for many days. There is, on average, just over 3% (13 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss continue to do a 2017 and sharply reduce further as it has been doing for some time? Yes.

A September minimum in a higher range of 4.25 to 4.50 million km2 seems very probable, with the result of least drama at 6th or 7th place. It also seems certain that the data will show that melt was well below average, very much so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1543 on: August 31, 2018, 02:43:17 PM »
Triple and 1/2 WHOOPS Loss up a bit Loss up more

NSIDC Total Area as at 30 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,469,718  km2

This is 223 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date


Total Area loss             51k , which is 20+ k above average

Central Seas loss          54 k,
Peripheral Seas gain        3 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas loss               0 k, all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 4 k, area 39 k, < 5% of maximum.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 1 k, area 25 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea gain 3 k, area 53k, Ice down the Fram?
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 1 k, area 28 k, < 5% of maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 1 k, area 18 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 10 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 0 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 11 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 28 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area loss 0 k, Area 11 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of 51 k is above average by about 20k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 15 k, 25k below average for the day. Daily extent was a gain of 21k, (after losses of 35k, 10k, 15k, 40k, and 56k, the days before). End of season wobbles. < 2 weeks  to go?

I am giving up making comments about the end of the season.. a mug's game.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1544 on: August 31, 2018, 04:07:36 PM »
Eyeballing the daily extent loss and gain graph it looks like it is going to match the zero line quite soon, which means an early and comparably high minimum. Therefore I think that the decrease will increase for a few days, but a minimum above 2017 gets increasingly likely.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1545 on: September 01, 2018, 06:11:53 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 31st, 2018: 40 minutes without being updated.
Seems that they will not update it today.
Please feel free to give us the information, if the new data appears on the following link:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: September 01, 2018, 06:54:47 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1546 on: September 01, 2018, 06:43:38 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

August 31st, 2018: 4,742,068 km2, a drop of -26,667 km2.
2018 is the seventh lowest on record.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2018, 06:54:03 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1547 on: September 01, 2018, 07:58:49 AM »
If 2018 continues like this in the next days it will even lose another place in the rank list and get higher than 2008...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1548 on: September 01, 2018, 10:32:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 4,742,068 km2(August 31, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...
- Extent is now 148 k km2  (3.1%) above the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 474 k (1.6 %) above 2017,
- Extent loss to date is now a very large 534 k km2 (5.5 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 97.2% of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is up to 4.46 million km2. Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.26 to 4.56 million km2 - now raising a real possibility of an end result of above 2017.

That 2017 feeling has waxed consistently for some time - melting has slowed to below average for many days. There is, on average, just under 3% (13 days) of further low and highly variable extent losses to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss continue to do a 2017 and sharply reduce further as it has been doing for some time? Yes.

ps The only prediction I am willing to make on this year's outcome is that the 2018 minimum will be at or below 4,742,068 km2.

pps: Two more people have entered the also-ran list in the August JAXA Extent poll by voting 4.75 to 5.25 for the minimum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1549 on: September 01, 2018, 02:16:27 PM »
Triple and 1/2 WHOOPS Loss up a bit Loss up more Loss up even more

NSIDC Total Area as at 31 August (5 day trailing average) = 3,415,194  km2

This is 195 k above the 2010-2017 average total area for this date

 
Total Area loss             55k , which is 25+ k above average

Central Seas loss          56 k,
Peripheral Seas gain        0 k, all seas at or near zero area.
Other Seas gain              1 k, all seas at or near zero area.

Analysis of individual seas.
Pacific Side
- The Bering Sea - finished,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3 k, area 37 k, < 5% of maximum.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 0 k, area 25 k, <5% of max,
- Greenland Sea gain 1 k, area 54k,
- Barents Sea - finished,
- The Kara Sea area gain 0 k, area 28 k, < 5% of maximum.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 0 k, area 18 k, <5% of maximum.

CAB
- Beaufort Sea loss 8 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 2 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 7 k .
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 37 k,

Other seas

- St Lawrence -finished,
- Hudson Bay area gain 1 k, Area 13 k,
- The Okhotsk Sea - finished.

On average, this is when daily area loss declines sharply and wobbles from day to day. The area loss of 55 k is above average by about 25k for this day. Extent loss (also 5-day trailing average)) was 20 k, 20k below average for the day. Daily extent was a loss of 61k, (after gain of 21k and before that losses of 35k, 10k, 15k, 40k, ). End of season wobbles. < 2 weeks  to go?

I am giving up making comments about the end of the season.. a mug's game.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)