2018 sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

The Greenland Sea in recent days has seen a rapid increase in area as Fram export licked in, followed by a decrease in area as lows bringing warmer air with presumably southerly winds travelled up the Greenland coast. See 1st graph. That warmth looks like continuing for most of the time in the next week or so.

Despite the noise from Fram export varying in strength from year to year confusing the picture the trend over the years is obvious. The Greenland Sea is losing ice. See Open water graph attached.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 17^th:
   2018: 5,772,608 km², a small drop  of -8,089 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,490,722 km², an increase of 121,730 km²
   
2018 is now the 3^rd lowest on record.

PS: Thank you for your comments. As I said, I am not quitting. Just looking to not make the posts possibly 2 days on a week.

[oren]

Today was the first of the the 3 remaining record days for 2007, and 2007 kept it. To break the remaining two records, tomorrow needs 5790k which still seems very improbable, and the 19th needs 5991k which suddenly seems quite possible.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,772,608 km2（October 17, 2018）

- Extent decrease (unusual) 8k km2,
- Extent is 808 k  (12.3 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 817 k (12.4 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 972 k (42,5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 23% (>1/5th) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.36 million km2 (520k < 2017). Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.04 million km2, some 840,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is getting towards the unbelievable. 

Extent gain is or is not currently playing catch-up. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is going to stay at around +4 above average temperatures. But even with this high anomaly, temperatures over most of the Arctic will be well below the freezing point of sea ice of circa -1.8 degrees celsius.

______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________

[AmbiValent]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 17^th:
   2018: 5,772,608 km², a small drop  of -8,089 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,490,722 km², an increase of 121,730 km²
   
2018 is now the 3^rd lowest on record.

2018, which has been argued safely away from breaking records, is now below 2012, and just 130k away from the record. We're NOT out of the woods yet.

[gerontocrat]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 17^th:
   2018: 5,772,608 km², a small drop  of -8,089 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,490,722 km², an increase of 121,730 km²
   
2018 is now the 3^rd lowest on record.

2018, which has been argued safely away from breaking records, is now below 2012, and just 130k away from the record. We're NOT out of the woods yet.

At the moment, we are going deeper into the woods.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 17 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,238,604 km2

Total Area gain on this day 92 k, 8k less than the 2010's average, area now 697 k less than 2017.

Peripheral Seas loss        8 k,
Central Seas     gain       96 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         4 k, (3k Hudson 1k Okhotsk)

Peripheral Seas
Greenland Sea              loss  12 k     
CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                 gain    27 k
Canadian Archipelago    gain     28 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS) gain     15 k ,
Central Arctic Sea          gain     14 k,

Chukchi                        gain 8 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around 4 celsius until.....? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening. On this day very strong gain in the CAB seas while the Greenland Sea lost 12k (warm weather is still coming in) but the Chukchi gained 8 k.

[RoxTheGeologist]

At the moment, we are going deeper into the woods.

I thought we were lost in the woods at night, about to step into a deep hole.

[Pmt111500]

At the moment, we are going deeper into the woods.

That was a big swing. I've blamed weather (clouds) for those previously, the algorithm interpreting the sat data, but nowadays I'm not too sure anymore of that.

I thought we were lost in the woods at night, about to step into a deep hole.

Messed up the formatting sorry.

[gerontocrat]

At the moment, we are going deeper into the woods.

I thought we were lost in the woods at night, about to step into a deep hole.

How deep a hole.? Here are some graphs (NSIDC AREA Data) about the sea along the Atlantic Front. Is refreezing delayed

Greenland Sea. The export of ice down the Fram confuses the issue. Export restarts, area increases sharply, then warmth and southerly winds arrive and everything goes into reverse. I suppose one can only wait and see.

Barents Sea Too early to say. Late Winter ice (March & April) has recovered strongly in the last 3 years even though refreezing has been late.

Kara Sea An odd year to date. Late to melt, drops like a stone, and so far late to refreeze.

Laptev Sea  The poster child for Atlantification continues to impress.

(The nearly 1 million shortfall in extent gain in the JAXA data must be showing up somewhere).

[RoxTheGeologist]

At the moment, we are going deeper into the woods.

I thought we were lost in the woods at night, about to step into a deep hole.

How deep a hole.? Here are some graphs (NSIDC AREA Data) about the sea along the Atlantic Front. Is refreezing delayed

Greenland Sea. The export of ice down the Fram confuses the issue. Export restarts, area increases sharply, then warmth and southerly winds arrive and everything goes into reverse. I suppose one can only wait and see.

Barents Sea Too early to say. Late Winter ice (March & April) has recovered strongly in the last 3 years even though refreezing has been late.

Kara Sea An odd year to date. Late to melt, drops like a stone, and so far late to refreeze.

Laptev Sea  The poster child for Atlantification continues to impress.

(The nearly 1 million shortfall in extent gain in the JAXA data must be showing up somewhere).

The extent gains in the Beaufort and CAA are almost done. They have almost frozen over completely (perhaps 200k to go). It remains to be seen how long the Atlantification and Pacification slow refreeze in the warmed peripheral seas. I expect Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay to freeze early as it's been a cold year in Canada, and, I assume, that's where fresher water released from the Beaufort ends up.

[oren]

Another look at the Laptev, comparing the more accurate UH AMSR2 area data to the last few years. Laptev is at record territory, but it finally started a refreeze, and could possibly catch up with 2012 and 2016 soon - if it hurries.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 18^th:
   2018: 5,869,050 km², an increase of 96,442 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,629,147 km², an increase of 138,425 km²
   
2018 is the 3^rd lowest on record.

[Juan C. García]

Today was the first of the the 3 remaining record days for 2007, and 2007 kept it. To break the remaining two records, tomorrow needs 5790k which still seems very improbable, and the 19th needs 5991k which suddenly seems quite possible.

As Oren said, tomorrow 2007 had a big increase of 201,258 km². So, if 2018 increases less than 122,327 km², 2018 will become the first lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,869,050 km2（October 18, 2018）

- Extent increase a below average 96 k km2,
- Extent is 855 k  (12.7 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date, compared with 50k above the average 30 days ago,
- Extent is 908 k (13.4 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 1,011 k (41,7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 24.3 % (>1/5th) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.32 million km2 (560k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 12.98 million km2, some 900,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is getting towards the unbelievable,

Extent gain is not currently playing catch-up. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is going to stay at a slightly lower anomaly around 3.5 to 4 celsius above average temperatures. Of perhaps more significance is that starting from next mid-week, GFS is suggesting even more intense +ve anomalies on the Russian side offset by lower anomalies or even average temperatures on the N. America side of the Arctic.  But even with this high anomaies on the Russian side, temperatures over most of the Arctic will be well below the freezing point of sea ice of circa -1.8 degrees celsius.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 17 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,238,604 km2

Total Area gain on this day 85 k,
19k less than the 2010's average, area now 709 k < 2017 and 716K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain        8 k,
Central Seas     gain       73 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         4 k, (All Hudson )

Peripheral Seas
Greenland Sea              gain  2 k
Baffin                           gain  7 k  increase accelerating.

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                 gain    25 k
Canadian Archipelago    gain     24 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS) gain      9 k ,
Central Arctic Sea          gain      6 k,

Chukchi                        gain      7 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around 3.5 to 4 celsius until.....? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening. On this day less strong gain in the CAB seas while the Greenland Sea gained 2k (warm weather is still due to come in again in a couple of days) but the Chukchi gained 7 k.

NSIDC Daily Extent is now 2nd lowest by 62k to 2007, and
- 1.062 million km2 < 2017
- 1.020 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

A record low tomorrow or very soon after is very likely.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 19^th:
   2018: 6,010,146 km², an increase of 141,096 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,770,352 km², an increase of 141,205 km²
   
2018 is the 3^rd lowest on record, even that because of the small differences, we can say that 2007, 2016 and 2018 are even on the lowest record.

[DavidR]

Its not often you need a gain of 143,000 Km^2 in a day to not drop from 3rd lowest to lowest, and a gain of 240,000 to stay at third. We'll have to see what tomorrow brings.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 6,010,146 km2（October 19, 2018）

- Extent increase an average 141 k km2 for this day,
- Extent is 855 k  (12.5 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date, compared with 50k above the average 30 days ago,
- Extent is 920 k (13.3 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record by a smidgeon,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 1003 k (39.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 25.7 % (>1/4th) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.33 million km2 (550k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 12.97 million km2, some 910,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is getting towards the unbelievable,

Extent gain is still not currently playing catch-up. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is going to stay at a lower anomaly of around 3.5 celsius above average temperatures. Of perhaps more significance is that starting from next mid-week, GFS is suggesting even more intense +ve anomalies on the Russian side offset by lower anomalies or even average temperatures on the N. America side of the Arctic.  But even with this high anomalies on the Russian side, temperatures over most of the Arctic will be well below the freezing point of sea ice of circa -1.8 degrees celsius.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________

[be cause]

the difference between third and first today is less than the amount of false ice that has been reported in Kara all along .. 2018 is probably in reality, first .
Tomorrow it is still as likely the reported extent will be 5th as 1st .. b.c.

ps thanks Juan for bringing the breakfast news I can trust
.. and Gerontocrat for feeding me thru the day ! 

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,413,212 km2

Total Area gain on this day 89 k,
19 k less than the 2010's average, area now 728 k < 2017 and 736 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain        17 k,
Central Seas     gain       70 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         3 k, (Okhotsk -1.5k Hudson +4.5 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  9 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              gain  8 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                 gain    23 k
Canadian Archipelago    gain     21 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS) gain      5 k ,
Central Arctic Sea          gain      9 k,

Chukchi                        gain      7 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3.5  celsius until.....? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening. On this day less strong gain in the CAB seas while the Greenland Sea gained 2k (warm weather is still due to come in again in a couple of days) but the Chukchi gained 7 k.

Meanwhile look at the melting seasons thread re possible very high +ve anomalies by end month, and Hansen's prediction of a big spike in temps over the next few months. If that pans out all bets are off.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 19th October 6.085 million km2 and despite an extent rise of 107 k is now lowest by 30k c.f. 2007, and
- 0.986 million km2 < 2017
- 1.047 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

A record low is very likely to continue even with average extent gain.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 20^th:
   2018: 6,136,029 km², an increase of 125,883 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,877,976 km², an increase of 107,624 km²
   
2018 is the lowest on record!

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 6,136,029 km2（October 20, 2018）

- Extent increase is 20k above average 126 k km2 on this day,
- Extent is 835 k  (12.0 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 893 k (12,7 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record by a smidgeon,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 987 k (37.0%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 26.8 % (>1/4th) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.34 million km2 (540k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.00 million km2, some 880,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is getting towards the unbelievable.

Extent gain is still not currently playing catch-up. However GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is going to be at a lower temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius above average temperatures until Friday. Of perhaps more significance is that starting from next Saturday, GFS is suggesting temperature anomalies increasing to over 5 degrees. But GFS has a history of highly inaccurate forecasts beyond 5 days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________
[/quote]

[Rob Dekker]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 20^th:
   2018: 6,136,029 km², an increase of 125,883 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,877,976 km², an increase of 107,624 km²
   
2018 is the lowest on record!

That is quite astounding.
What an amazing report 2018 brings us. More than 200 K below 2012 at this time.
That's just crazy....

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,499,543 km2

Total Area gain on this day 86 k,
- 32 k less than the 2010's average on the day,
-area now 772 k < 2017 and 767 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain        16 k,
Central Seas     gain       67 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         4 k, (Okhotsk -1 k Hudson +5 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  10 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              gain  7 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                 gain    17 k
Canadian Archipelago    gain     14 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS) gain      6 k ,
Central Arctic Sea          gain      15 k,

Chukchi                        gain      6 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3  celsius until.....? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening. On this day less strong gain in the CAB seas while the Greenland Sea gained 2k (warm weather is still due to come in again in a couple of days) but the Chukchi gained 7 k.

Meanwhile looking at the freezing season thread plus GFS beyond 5 days re possible very high +ve anomalies by end month (+6 celsius), and Hansen's prediction of a big spike in temps over the next few months. If that pans out all bets are off.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th October 6.208 million km2 and despite an extent rise of 123 k is now lowest by 61 k c.f. 2007, and
- 1.029 million km2 < 2017
- 0.977 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

A record low is very likely to continue even with average extent gain.

[gerontocrat]

Some graphs for a change (Area - 5 day trailing average data from NSIDC).

There are 4 seas which are usually the last to melt and the earliest to freeze -
The Canadian Archipelago the CAA),
The Beaufort,
The East Siberian Sea (the ESS),
The Central Arctic.

The total area of the first three is around 3 million km2, the Central Arctic is about 3.25 million km2.

This year's freezing season is a tale of two halves,
- Extreme rapid area gain in the CAA and the Beaufort,
- Very slow refreeze in the ESS and the Central Arctic.

A nice reminder that the Arctic is not a homogeneous environment.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 21^st:
   2018: 6,248,035 km², an increase of 112,006 km².
   2010's Avg.: 6,992,779 km², an increase of 114,803 km²
   
2018 is the lowest on record. We can say that it is even with 2016.

[El Cid]

This is fairly amazing!

Thanks for the daily updates and charts!

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 6,248,035 km2（October 21, 2018）

- Extent increase at 113 k is about 10k below the average on this day,
- Extent is 838 k  (11.8 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 866 k (12,2 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record by a smidgeon,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 1.004 k (35.9%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 28.1 % (>1/4th) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.33 million km2 (550k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.02 million km2, some 860,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is getting towards the unbelievable.

Extent gain is still not currently playing catch-up. However GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is going to be at a lower temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius above average temperatures until Friday. Of perhaps more significance is that starting from next Saturday, GFS is suggesting temperature anomalies increasing to over 5 degrees. But GFS has a history of highly inaccurate forecasts beyond 5 days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,587,038 km2

Total Area gain on this day 87 k,
- 35 k less than the 2010's average on the day,
-area now
- 828 k < 2017 and
- 802 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain       13 k,
Central Seas     gain       72 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         2 k, (Okhotsk -2 k Hudson +4 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  12 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              gain    2 k
Bering                          loss     1 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    17 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain    10 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain    16 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain    19 k,

Chukchi                        gain just  1 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3  celsius until.....? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening.

Meanwhile GFS beyond Friday days predicts very high +ve anomalies from +4 to 5.5 by end month (but GFS has form for wild expectations beyond 5 days).  Hansen predicts big spike in temps over the next few months fromthe El Nino. If all that pans out all bets are off.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th October 6.376 million km2 and despite an extent rise of 168 k is now lowest in the satellite record by 108 k (c.f. 2007), and 90k (c.f. 2016) and-
- 1.027 million km2 < 2017
- 0.931 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

A record low is very likely to continue even with average extent gain.
[/quote]

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 22^nd:
   2018: 6,392,057 km², an increase of 144,022 km².
   2010's Avg.: 7,129,080 km², an increase of 136,300 km²
   
2018 is the 2^nd lowest on record.
Because the difference is small, we can say that 2018 is even with 2016 on the lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 6,392,057 km2（October 22, 2018）

- Extent increase at 144 k is about 10k above the average on this day,
- Extent is 829 k  (11.5 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 835 k (11.5 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record by a smidgeon,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 0.995 k (34.0%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 29.4 % (<1/3rd) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.34 million km2 (540k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.05 million km2, some 830,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is still getting towards the unbelievable.

Extent gain is still not currently playing catch-up. However GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is going to be at a lower temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius above average temperatures until Friday. Of perhaps more significance is that starting from next Saturday, GFS is suggesting temperature anomalies increasing to over 5 degrees and gradually approaching +6. But GFS has a history of highly inaccurate forecasts beyond 5 days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,704,631 km2

Total Area gain on this day 118 k,
- 11 k less than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 862 k < 2017 and
- 813 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain       12 k,
Central Seas     gain       102 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         3 k, (Okhotsk -1 k Hudson +4 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  12 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              loss     1 k
Bering                          loss/gain     0 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    20 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain    11 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain    33 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain    17 k,

Chukchi                              gain      9 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3  celsius until Friday? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening.

Meanwhile GFS beyond Friday days predicts very high +ve anomalies from +4 to nearly +6 by end month mostly in an arc from the eastern edge of the CAA all around the Arctic to beyond Novaya Zemla, while north of Greenland at average temperatures. (but GFS has form for wild expectations beyond 5 days).  Hansen predicts big spike in temps over the next few months from the Al Nina to El Nino transition. If all that pans out all bets are off.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th October 6.565 million km2 and despite an extent rise of 189 k is still lowest in the satellite record by a 163 k (c.f. 2007), and a slim 18k (c.f. 2016) and-
- 0.947 million km2 < 2017
- 0.891 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

A record low is very likely to continue even with average extent gain. But will extent gain be average, below average, or above average ?

[uniquorn]

Thanks for the charts and the summary Gerontocrat. Maybe the Laptev Sea is worth a mention at +12k

[oren]

Thanks for the charts and the summary Gerontocrat. Maybe the Laptev Sea is worth a mention at +12k

Here is the AMSR2 chart.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 23^rd:
   2018: 6,575,429 km², an increase of 183,372 km².
   2010's Avg.: 7,245,129 km², an increase of 116,049 km²
   
2018 is the 2^nd lowest on record.


P.S.
The 1990's average minimum is 6,548,129 km², so todays value is the first on the 2018-19 freezing season in which 2018 is above the 1990's minimum by 27,300 km².

The 1980's average minimum is  7,229,571 km², so 2018 is still -654,142 km² under 1980's average minimum.


Do we need a catastrophe to prove a catastrophe?
Or are we having a catastrophe right now, but we have not notice it yet?

[Eco-Author]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.
Do we need a catastrophe to prove a catastrophe?
Or are we having a catastrophe right now, but we have not notice it yet?

We are a race that can barely survive its own economics let alone standard natural variations such as quakes, VEI7+ volcanos... who's nearly at WWIII every other month... Climate change on top of this...!?  Even our most prized architecture emulates a dead society~ the Romans!

[Phil42]

Since we are past the 6'000'000 km² mark for this year, here's a table showing the amount of days in which a year had an arctic sea ice extent <6'000'000 km². 2018 placed 4th with 74 days. The leaders in this statistics are 2007 and 2012 with 77 days.

[Thomas Barlow]

Arctic Ocean sea-ice is at the lowest extent on record for this date.
(bottom graph includes 2007)
https://tinyurl.com/yafst6ob

( Northern hemisphere sea-ice is about 4th lowest: https://tinyurl.com/mach5ge )

[oren]

Thanks for this table Phil. Just a stupid question, for the 2010s average is this the average of the number of days of each year's extent below 6M, or the number of days the average extent was below 6M...?

[Phil42]

In the table it's the average of the number of days of each year's extent below 6M.

But after reading your question, I figured it probably makes more sense to take the number of days the 2010's average extent was below 6M in the future. This number would be 68, equal to 2017.

[harpy]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,704,631 km2

Total Area gain on this day 118 k,
- 11 k less than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 862 k < 2017 and
- 813 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain       12 k,
Central Seas     gain       102 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         3 k, (Okhotsk -1 k Hudson +4 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  12 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              loss     1 k
Bering                          loss/gain     0 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    20 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain    11 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain    33 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain    17 k,

Chukchi                              gain      9 k

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3  celsius until Friday? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening.

Meanwhile GFS beyond Friday days predicts very high +ve anomalies from +4 to nearly +6 by end month mostly in an arc from the eastern edge of the CAA all around the Arctic to beyond Novaya Zemla, while north of Greenland at average temperatures. (but GFS has form for wild expectations beyond 5 days).  Hansen predicts big spike in temps over the next few months from the Al Nina to El Nino transition. If all that pans out all bets are off.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th October 6.565 million km2 and despite an extent rise of 189 k is still lowest in the satellite record by a 163 k (c.f. 2007), and a slim 18k (c.f. 2016) and-
- 0.947 million km2 < 2017
- 0.891 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

A record low is very likely to continue even with average extent gain. But will extent gain be average, below average, or above average ?

When Gen starts saying things like if x then "all bets are off", I start paying closer attention.

[Juan C. García]

Since we are past the 6'000'000 km² mark for this year, here's a table showing the amount of days in which a year had an arctic sea ice extent <6'000'000 km². 2018 placed 4th with 74 days. The leaders in this statistics are 2007 and 2012 with 77 days.

Great table Phil42. Thanks. 

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 24^th:
   2018: 6,731,603 km², an increase of 156,174 km².
   
2018 is the 2^nd lowest on record.


(I decided to suspend the 2010's avg line, because it was too variable).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 6,731,603 km2（October 24, 2018）

Sorry about yesterday's lack of posting. **it happens from time to time.

- Extent increase at 156 k is about 55 k ABOVE the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 705 k  (9.5 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 576 k (7.9 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record by a smidgeon,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 867 k (27.6%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 31.5 % (< 1/3rd) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.47 million km2 (410k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.19 million km2, some 690,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is going back towards the believable.

Extent gain is currently playing catch-up (in the last 3 days). GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius above average temperatures gradually rising to +5 by Wed Oct 31. Every day, the GFS forecast is at slightly lower temperature anomaly - which seems to be a pattern with GFS. If Hansen's prediction of a temperature spike over the next few months then yes, all bets are off. But caution is the watchword.

Where GFs has been pretty spot on is the concentration of the high +ve anomalies in an arc from the East of the CAA in an arc around the Arctic Ocean to West of Novaya Zemla and then south towards Svlabard. Timing of refreeze in these area will be interesting.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure used in Juan's table includes 2018 while the figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
Quote from Juan - including 2018 in the 2010's average also confuses things somewhat.

(I decided to suspend the 2010's avg line, because it was too variable).

_________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 October (5 day trailing average) =  4,996,906 km2

Circumstances cause a day off and look what happens.

Total Area gain on this day 155 k, and the day before 138 k.
- 25 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 856 k < 2017 and
- 781 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain       4 k,
Central Seas     gain       145 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain         6 k, (Okhotsk -1 k Hudson +4 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  12 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              loss     8 k
Bering                          loss/gain     0 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain     9 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain     8 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain    58 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain    30 k,

Chukchi                              gain      15 k (14k the day before)

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3  celsius until Friday? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening.

Meanwhile GFS beyond Friday no longer predicts high +ve anomalies from +4 to about +5 by end month mostly in an arc from the eastern edge of the CAA all around the Arctic to beyond Novaya Zemla, while north of Greenland at average temperatures. (but GFS has form for wild expectations beyond 5 days). 

Hansen predicts big spike in temps over the next few months from the Al Nina to El Nino transition. If all that pans out all bets are off, but perhaps a large note of caution is required.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th October 6.8855 million km2 an extent rise of 190 k and now 2nd lowest in the satellite record by a 91 k (c.f. 2016) and-
- 0.681 million km2 < 2017
- 0.797 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

But will extent gain be average, below average, or above average from now?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

October 25^th:
   2018: 6,933,069 km², a double century increase of 201,466 km².
   2018 is the 2^nd lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 6,933,069 km2（October 25, 2018）


- Extent increase at 201 k is about 110 k ABOVE the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 607 k  (8.0 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 475 k (6.4 %) below 2017 on this date,
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 755 k (23.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 32.4 % (< 1/3rd) of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.58 million km2 (300k < 2017).

Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.29 million km2, some 590,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which is going back towards the believable.

Extent gain is currently playing catch-up (in the last 4 days) - with a vengeance. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a lower temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius above average temperatures gradually rising to 4.5 by Wed Oct 31. Every day, the GFS forecast is at slightly lower temperature anomaly - which seems to be a pattern with GFS. If Hansen's prediction of a temperature spike over the next few months then yes, all bets are off. But caution is the watchword.

Where GFs has been pretty spot on is the concentration of the high +ve anomalies in an arc from the East of the CAA in an arc around the Arctic Ocean to West of Novaya Zemla and then south towards Svalbard. This is consistent with the "DMI North of 80" temperature graph showing temperatures dropping quickly towards the average. Differences in extent gain between these area will be interesting.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
_________________________________________________________________________

[El Cid]

. If Hansen's prediction of a temperature spike over the next few months then yes, all bets are off.
_________________________________________________________________________

I missed this one. What temperature spike?

[gerontocrat]

. If Hansen's prediction of a temperature spike over the next few months then yes, all bets are off.
_________________________________________________________________________

I missed this one. What temperature spike?

It all started with a note published by Hansen on October 15th. Here is an extract from a follow-up http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181019_FromXianWithLove.pdf

Climate models indicate that an El Nino, probably a weak one, will begin this (Northern Hemisphere) winter, and observations show that warming in the tropical Pacific has begun....

Global temperature appears to increase almost linearly over the past 50 years (green line above); the 1970-present rate is 0.17°C per decade. Jeremy Grantham pointed out that the rate of warming inferred by connecting the peak temperatures of the last two El Nino maxima (0.21°C per decade, see figure above) exceeds this longer term rate, and he infers that global warming is accelerating.

La Nina minima probably provide a better estimate, and they provide a more recent rate. As the figure shows, the most recent two La Ninas imply a warming rate of 0.38°C per decade, at least double the longer term rate! Acceleration is predicted by climate models for continued high
fossil fuel emissions as a result of amplifying climate feedbacks and is a cause for concern. We expect global temperature to rise in the next few months and confirm that the global warming rate has accelerated.

Goto the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread for a discussion on whether Hansen is right or blown it. e.g. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg177463.html#msg177463

My view - Hansen has been right more often than wrong.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 October (5 day trailing average) =  5,157,897 km2

Total Area gain on this day 161 k, and the day before 155 k.
- 37 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 796 k < 2017 and
- 745 K < the 2010s average

Peripheral Seas gain       8 k,
Central Seas     gain   149 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       4 k, (Okhotsk +1 k Hudson +3 k)

Peripheral Seas
Baffin                           gain  13 k  increase accelerating.
Greenland Sea              loss     5 k
Bering                          loss/gain     0 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain     2 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain      k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain    58 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain    30 k,

Chukchi                              gain      19 k (14k the day before)

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around +3  celsius until Friday? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. Freezing has taken hold in the Central Seas. Attention switches to the pace of freezing and where it is happening.

Meanwhile GFS beyond Friday no longer predicts as high +ve anomalies, now from +3 to about +4.5 still by end month, mostly in an arc from the eastern edge of the CAA all around the Arctic to beyond Novaya Zemla, while north of Greenland at average temperatures. (but GFS has form for wild expectations beyond 5 days so no surprise). 

Hansen predicts big spike in temps over the next few months from the Al Nina to El Nino transition. If all that pans out all bets are off, but perhaps a large note of caution is required. At the moment sea ice is plying catch-up strongly.

NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th October 7.083 million km2 an extent rise of 198 k and now 2nd lowest in the satellite record by a 127 k (c.f. 2016) and-
- 0.521 million km2 < 2017
- 0.703 million km2 < 2010's average (2010-2017).

But will extent gain be average, below average, or above average from now on? (I think stays high while the CAB seas fill up).