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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2050 on: November 06, 2018, 10:02:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 8,624,638 km2(November 5, 2018)

- Extent increase at 77 k is 31 k below the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is just 47 k (0.5 %) ABOVE* the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- 1,021 k (13.4%) above 2016,
- 439 k (5.4%) above 2012
- 379 k (3.3 %) above 2017
- Freezing to date from minimum is 101 k (2.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average 42.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.23 million km2 (350k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.05 million km2, (127k > 2017).

Extent gain on this day well below average, in strong contrast with the last 3 weeks. A blip or a real slow down in extent gain? GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius or below for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
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Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2051 on: November 06, 2018, 01:21:48 PM »
Because of the slow melt in July and the rapid refreeze happening in late October and early November, there has been a below average (2010's) amount of days below 8M km2.


gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2052 on: November 06, 2018, 02:59:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 November (5 day trailing average) =  6,966,896 km2

Area gain 220 k which is 102 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
-  59 k > 2017 and
- 227 K < the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     22 k,
Central Seas     gain   188 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain     10 k, (St Lawrence +1 k, Okhotsk + 1 k, Hudson +8 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain     0 k
Baffin                          gain   23 k
Greenland Sea             loss     2 k
Barents                       gain     1 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    9 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain   19 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   41 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain   25 k,

Kara                                  gain     28 k (just started major gains)
Laptev                               gain     64 k (strong gains the last 2+ weeks)
Chukchi                             gain       2 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 8.889 million km2 an extent gain of 96 k, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.281 million km2 > 2017
- 0.470 million km2 > 2012
- 1.031 million km2 > 2016
- 0.025 million km2 > 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete but back down close to average gain on this day (Laptev and Kara filling up), still a bit to go on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, large area gains must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3 or lower
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2053 on: November 06, 2018, 06:21:05 PM »
Some AREA graphs - "the Atlantic Front".

It's been quite a year. 4 graphs -
- the Greenland Sea. Note that Fram Export highs and lows distort the picture somewhat, but low sea ice in the entire year to date.
- the Barents Sea, high ice at maximum, but now resisting area increase,
- the Kara Sea, late melt, late refreeze and a long time at almost zero,
- the Laptev Sea. The massive refreeze is after a long period of very low ice.

Overall a story of long summer minimums and late refreeze.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2054 on: November 06, 2018, 06:47:37 PM »
AREA graphs on three seas that were in contrast with the "Atlantic Front".

The Canadian Archipelago - very high area all year.
Baffin Bay - late to melt and early to refreeze.
Hudson Bay - c.f. 2010's average a week to 10 days late to completely melt out and about 10 to 12 days early in refreezing. A really cold week to 10 days ahead for Central Canada may mean bbr's prediction for Hudson comes true.


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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2055 on: November 06, 2018, 08:23:51 PM »
Re the "bbr prediction", here's the latest AMSR2 area data. We are more or less in the 2015 "early Foxe Basin freeze" track. If we get on the 2014 "early Hudson Bay freeze" we could get to a 75% level by Dec 1st, and with an extreme freeze-up, maybe Nov 25th?
I am willing to risk a prediction of my own that the 75%/Nov 15th "bbr target" I marked in the graph will NOT be reached in 10 more days of data. Too steep, too soon. If I am right, will that cause future predictions to be uttered with less confidence?

Alexander555

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2056 on: November 06, 2018, 08:51:58 PM »
I think he's not going to make it at the 15th. But it's  pretty amazing how fast it goes. If you take the  dark green line. As soon as it starts to go up, it just takes 2 weeks to finish the job.

jdallen

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2057 on: November 06, 2018, 08:58:16 PM »
Some AREA graphs - "the Atlantic Front".

It's been quite a year. 4 graphs -
- the Greenland Sea. Note that Fram Export highs and lows distort the picture somewhat, but low sea ice in the entire year to date.
- the Barents Sea, high ice at maximum, but now resisting area increase,
- the Kara Sea, late melt, late refreeze and a long time at almost zero,
- the Laptev Sea. The massive refreeze is after a long period of very low ice.

Overall a story of long summer minimums and late refreeze.
Take a ways....
- The Laptev refreeze is running weeks to a month behind
- The Kara refreeze is running two weeks behind
- Greenland sea ice coverage is now highly influenced if not dominated by Fran export.
- The Barents may have flipped into being an extension of the N Atlantic
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2058 on: November 06, 2018, 09:02:50 PM »
will that cause future predictions to be uttered with less confidence?
I cannot have less confidence in my predictions as it already tends to zero or even negative (i.e. the opposite to what I foolishly have committed to paper). After all, maybe after the really cold spell in Canada for the next week or so warmth will return and stop the Hudson freezing in its tracks.
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bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2059 on: November 06, 2018, 09:06:11 PM »
will that cause future predictions to be uttered with less confidence?
I cannot have less confidence in my predictions as it already tends to zero or even negative (i.e. the opposite to what I foolishly have committed to paper). After all, maybe after the really cold spell in Canada for the next week or so warmth will return and stop the Hudson freezing in its tracks.
I would say I usually have over 50% confidence when I make a prediction but that does not mean I am ever 100% confident.

Also 11/15 will clearly be too early for 75% coverage, but I think 11/20 may do it, and we could be at 50% by 11/15. I like the NATICE maps because they color concentration "yellow" so it is either there or it isn't, but I don't mind being critiqued / called wrong by everyone based on whatever metric you want to use.  ;D ;D ;D


Alexander555

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2060 on: November 06, 2018, 09:38:23 PM »
Maybe we will see some frozen chameleons early in the season this year. It's still 10 days out.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2061 on: November 06, 2018, 10:08:35 PM »
Some AREA graphs - "the Atlantic Front".

It's been quite a year. 4 graphs -
- the Greenland Sea. Note that Fram Export highs and lows distort the picture somewhat, but low sea ice in the entire year to date.
- the Barents Sea, high ice at maximum, but now resisting area increase,
- the Kara Sea, late melt, late refreeze and a long time at almost zero,
- the Laptev Sea. The massive refreeze is after a long period of very low ice.

Overall a story of long summer minimums and late refreeze.
Take a ways....
- The Laptev refreeze is running weeks to a month behind
- The Kara refreeze is running two weeks behind
- Greenland sea ice coverage is now highly influenced if not dominated by Fran export.
- The Barents may have flipped into being an extension of the N Atlantic

Yes - the interesting part of the season is what happens in the dead of winter where the peripheral Arctic seas meet the Atlantic and Pacific . That is where the warming oceans have the most impact; specifically the Bering, Chukchi, Barents and Kara seas. I expect thinner ice from less FDDs and lower extent.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2062 on: November 06, 2018, 11:13:47 PM »
If I am right, will that cause future predictions to be uttered with less confidence?

Ha...hee hee hee ho ho ha hah hah hah erp eek thud.

(laughed my fool head off)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2063 on: November 07, 2018, 04:41:11 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 6th:
   2018: 8,651,221 km2, an increase of 26,583 km2.
   2018 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2064 on: November 07, 2018, 12:19:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 8,651,221 km2(November 6, 2018)

- Extent increase at 27 k is 50 k below the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is just 6 k (0.5 %) ABOVE* the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- 925 k (12.0%) above 2016,
- 387 k (4.7%) above 2012
- 157 k (1.8 %) above 2017
- Freezing to date from minimum is 152 k (3.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average 43.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.99 million km2, (110k > 2017).

Extent gain on this day well below average again, in strong contrast with the last 3 weeks. A blip or a real slow down in extent gain? GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius or below for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2065 on: November 07, 2018, 03:28:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,174,246 km2
 
Area gain 207 k which is 97 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 214 k > 2017 and
- 130 K < the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     19 k,
Central Seas     gain   181 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       7 k, (St Lawrence +0 k, Okhotsk + 0 k, Hudson +7 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain  0.5 k
Baffin                          gain   22 k
Greenland Sea             loss     3 k
Barents                       gain     0 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    8 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain   16 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   43 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain   28 k,

Kara                                  gain     33 k (5 days of major gains)
Laptev                               gain     51 k (strong gains the last 2+ weeks)
Chukchi                             gain       3 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 8.934 million km2 a modest extent gain of 45 k, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.201 million km2 > 2017
- 0.439 million km2 > 2012
- 0.892 million km2 > 2016
- 0.015 million km2 less than 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete but back down to below average gain on this day (Laptev and Kara filling up), still a little bit to go on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, large area gains must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3 or lower
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2066 on: November 08, 2018, 04:43:18 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 7th:
   2018: 8,694,063 km2, an increase of 42,842 km2.
   2018 is the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2067 on: November 08, 2018, 10:42:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 8,694,063 km2(November 7, 2018)

- Extent increase at 42 k is 40 k below the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 36 k (0.4 %) BELOW* the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- 853 k (10.9%) above 2016,
- 384 k (4.6%) above 2012
-  42 k (1.8 %) above 2017
- Freezing to date from minimum is 191 k (4.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 44.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.14 million km2 (260k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.94 million km2, (60k > 2017).

Extent gain on the last 3 days well below average, in strong contrast with the previous 3 weeks. A blip or a real slow down in extent gain? GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius then well below that in a few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2068 on: November 08, 2018, 01:21:02 PM »
NSIDC October analysis is out

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Note the discussion and graph on the Laptev. It was not a record low minimum but likely close to a record low over the year as a whole.

Quote
Unusual warmth continues
November 6, 2018
Over the Pacific side of the Arctic, a pattern of unusual warmth noted in last month’s post continued. While sea ice extent in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas remains below average, extent remains especially low on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in the Barents and Laptev Seas. October sea ice extent in the Arctic was the third lowest in the satellite record.

Quote
Especially prominent was the lack of ice growth on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in the Barents Sea, and in some regions, a slight contraction of the ice edge further north (Figure 1b). As a result, extent is presently far below average in this area, and is the primary reason why October extent for the Arctic as a whole is third lowest on record.

Quote
Why extent remains so low in the Barents Sea is not immediately clear from patterns of atmospheric circulation and temperature. October air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were only 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, associated with a trough of low pressure at sea level extending from Iceland into the region. While further investigation is warranted, this lack of ice growth may relate to the observed “Atlantification” of the Barents Sea, in which the cold, low density surface layer of the Arctic Ocean has weakened, allowing the heat from the warm Atlantic waters to more readily inhibit ice formation. It will be instructive to monitor ice growth rates in this area through the coming winter.

Quote
Another notable feature in the Arctic ice pack at the end of October was the significant amount of open water in the Laptev Sea. Even in 2007 and 2012, the previous record low minimum extent years, the Laptev had nearly completely frozen over by the end of October. As late as October 29, the Laptev sea ice extent was less than 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles). The 1981 to 2010 average extent on that date is 870,000 square kilometers (336,000 square miles)—essentially the entirety of the defined Laptev Sea region. By mid-October, the long-term average sea ice extent exceeds 800,000 square kilometers (309,000 square miles). This year, the mid-October sea ice extent within the Laptev Sea was barely above 100,000 square kilometers (39,000 square miles), about 13 percent of average.

The cause of this lack of ice is multifaceted. Ocean heat gained during the summer is likely delaying freeze-up. As noted above, air temperatures were above average over the region. This may in part be a result of the ocean heat, though low pressure centered over the Barents and Kara Seas also brought in warm air and winds from the south, keeping the ice edge from advancing.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 01:34:35 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2069 on: November 08, 2018, 02:35:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,349,839 km2

Area gain 176 k which is 75 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 320 k > 2017 and
-  55 K < the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     20 k,
Central Seas     gain   151 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       4 k, (St Lawrence +0 k, Okhotsk - 1 k, Hudson +5 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain  0.5 k
Baffin                          gain   24 k
Greenland Sea             loss     4 k
Barents                       gain  0.8 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    5 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain   11 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   41 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain   24 k,

Kara                                  gain     32 k (5 days of major gains)
Laptev                               gain     37 k (strong gains the last 3 weeks)
Chukchi                             gain       1 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 9.011 million km2 an average extent gain of 77 k, and 4th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.203 million km2 > 2017
- 0.362 million km2 > 2012
- 0.827 million km2 > 2016
- 0.017 million km2 less than 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete, average gain on this day (Laptev and Kara filling up), still a little bit to go on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, large area gains but reducing must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3 or lower
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2070 on: November 09, 2018, 05:04:13 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 8th:
   2018: 8,793,900 km2, an increase of 99,837 km2.
   2018 is the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2071 on: November 09, 2018, 08:20:34 AM »
Ehm, the fourth column is the same as the third...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2072 on: November 09, 2018, 09:28:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 8,793,900 km2(November 8, 2018)

- Extent increase at 100 k is 40 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 4 k (0.0 %) ABOVE* the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- 826 k (10.4%) above 2016,
- 436 k (5.2%) above 2012
-  75 k (0.9 %) above 2017
- Freezing to date from minimum is 150 k (3.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 45.0 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.98 million km2, (100k > 2017).

Extent gain back above average. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius then well below that to around +1 in a few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2073 on: November 09, 2018, 02:16:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,473,089  km2

Area gain 123 k which is 36 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 356 k > 2017 and
-  20 K < the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     23 k,
Central Seas     gain   100 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       1 k, (St Lawrence +0 k, Okhotsk - 1 k, Hudson +2 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    0 k
Baffin                          gain  25 k
Greenland Sea             loss     2 k
Barents                       gain     0 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       LOSS   3 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain     4 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   33 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain   12 k,

Kara                                  gain     29 k (5 days of major gains)
Laptev                               gain     25 k (strong gains the last 3 weeks)
Chukchi                             loss       1 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 9.071 million km2 an average extent gain of 60 k, and 4th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.132 million km2 > 2017
- 0.343 million km2 > 2012
- 0.833 million km2 > 2016
- 0.002 million km2 greater  than 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete, average gain on this day (Laptev and Kara filling up), almost there on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains but reducing quickly must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at just under +3 and getting lower
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2074 on: November 09, 2018, 04:58:46 PM »
The Laptev Sea refreeze was very impressive.
At the moment the Kara looks like it is heading the same way. But will it? The Barents is not refreezing at all - yet.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2075 on: November 10, 2018, 04:39:30 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 9th:
   2018: 8,894,807 km2, an increase of 100,907 km2.
   2018 is now the 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2076 on: November 10, 2018, 12:26:20 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 8,793,900 km2(November 8, 2018)

- Extent increase at 101 k is 43 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 53 k (0.6 %) ABOVE* the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- 866 k (10.8%) above 2016,
-  55 k (0.6 %) above 2011
- 493 k (5.9%) above 2012
-  47 k (0.6 %) above 2017
- Freezing to date from minimum is 103 k (2.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 45.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.23 million km2 (350k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.03 million km2, (150k > 2017).

Extent gain back above average. The late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +3 celsius then well below that to around +1 or less in a few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2077 on: November 10, 2018, 02:24:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,574,364  km2

Area gain 101 k which is 31 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 371 k > 2017 and
-  12 K > the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     23 k,
Central Seas     gain    73 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       1 k, (St Lawrence +0 k, Okhotsk + 2 k, Hudson +2 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    0 k
Baffin                          gain  25 k
Greenland Sea             loss     3 k
Barents                       gain     1 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       LOSS   4 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain     2 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   25 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                loss     1 k,

Kara                                  gain     37 k (5 days of major gains)
Laptev                               gain     13 k (Nearly full up ice)
Chukchi                             gain       1 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 9.2018 million km2 an above average extent gain of 138 k by 50k, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.106 million km2 > 2017
- 0.451 million km2 > 2012
- 0.003 million km2 > 2011
- 0.823 million km2 > 2016

- 0.051 million km2 greater  than 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete, average gain on this day (Laptev and Kara filling up), almost there on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains but reducing quickly must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at just under +3 and getting lower to less than +1
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2078 on: November 11, 2018, 05:00:41 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 10th:
   2018: 8,967,617 km2, an increase of 72,810 km2.
   2018 is the 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2079 on: November 11, 2018, 02:43:16 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 8,967,617 km2(November 10, 2018)

- Extent increase at 73 k is 4 k below the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details.

- Freezing to date from minimum is 110 k (2.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 46.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.22 million km2 (340k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.02 million km2, (140k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just below average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +2 celsius then well below that to around +0.5 or less in a few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2080 on: November 11, 2018, 07:19:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,652,590  km2
 357,557     21,703     33,434

Area gain 78 k which is 22 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 358 k > 2017 and
-  33 K > the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     16 k,
Central Seas     gain     55 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       7 k, (St Lawrence +1 k, Okhotsk + 3 k, Hudson +3 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    0 k
Baffin                          gain  18 k
Greenland Sea             loss     1 k
Barents                       loss     1 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       LOSS   4 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain     2 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   22 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                loss     8 k,

Kara                                  gain     31 k (7 days of major gains)
Laptev                               gain      7 k (Nearly full up ice)
Chukchi                             gain       5 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 9.310 million km2 an above average extent gain of 101 k by 31k, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.045 million km2 > 2017
- 0.516 million km2 > 2012
- 0.122 million km2 > 2011
- 0.907 million km2 > 2016

- 0.082 million km2 greater  than 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete, above average gain on this day (Laptev and Kara filling up), and also there on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains but reducing must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at just under +2 and getting lower to less than +1
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2081 on: November 11, 2018, 07:28:25 PM »
I certainly will be impressed if Hudson bay clocks up the expected 800,000 sq kms or so predicted in the next 4 days .. it will make the Laptev's growth over the last 10 days look like a slow crawl .. b.c.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2082 on: November 12, 2018, 04:37:28 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 11th:
   2018: 9,060,630 km2, an increase of 93,013 km2.
   2018 is the 5th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2083 on: November 12, 2018, 10:45:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,060,630 km2(November 11, 2018)

- Extent increase at 93 k is 27 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details.

- Freezing to date from minimum is 83 k (1.8%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 47.0 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.25 million km2 (370k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.02 million km2, (140k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just below average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1 celsius then below that to around +0.5 to +1 for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2084 on: November 12, 2018, 01:39:03 PM »
2018 had 128 days of Arctic Sea Ice Extent below 9'000'000 km2, which is:

 - 6th lowest on record
 - 4 days less than the 2010's (2010-2018) average
 - 5 days less than 2017
 - 20 days less than the record year 2016

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2085 on: November 12, 2018, 02:50:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,734,726  km2

Area gain 82 k which is 33 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 331 k > 2017 and
-  66 K > the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     22 k,
Central Seas     gain     52 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       8 k, (Okhotsk + 3 k, St Lawrence +0 k, Hudson +5 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    0.5 k
Baffin                          gain   19  k
Greenland Sea             loss     1.6 k
Barents                       loss     1.1 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       LOSS   2 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain     2 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   22 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                loss     6 k,

Kara                                  gain     22 k (7 days of major gains)
Laptev                               gain      6 k (Nearly full up ice)
Chukchi                             gain       9 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 9.449 million km2 an above average extent gain of 139 k by 57k, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is :-
- 0.157 million km2 > 2017
- 0.120 million km2 > 2011
- 0.547 million km2 > 2012
- 0.929 million km2 > 2016
- 0.141 million km2 greater  than 2010's average (2010-2017).

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete, above average gain on this day (Kara filling up), and also there and beyond on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at just under +2 and getting lower to less than +1
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2086 on: November 13, 2018, 05:00:38 AM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.
Feel The Burn!

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2087 on: November 13, 2018, 05:41:17 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 12th:
   2018: 9,152,939 km2, an increase of 92,309 km2.
   2018 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2088 on: November 13, 2018, 08:54:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,152,939 km2(November 12, 2018)

- Extent increase at 92 k is 51 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details.

- Freezing to date from minimum is 32 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 47.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.30 million km2 (420k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.07 million km2, (190k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just below average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1 celsius for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2089 on: November 13, 2018, 02:16:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,827,080  km2

Area gain 92 k which is 34 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 301 k > 2017 and
- 100 K > the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     29 k,
Central Seas     gain     54 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       9 k, (Okhotsk + 2 k, St Lawrence +0 k, Hudson +7 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    1 k
Baffin                          gain   22  k
Greenland Sea             loss     3 k
Barents                       loss     3 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    8 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain    13 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain   22 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                loss     6 k,

Kara                                  gain     23 k (7 days of major gains)
Laptev                               loss       2 k (Nearly full up ice)
Chukchi                             gain     15 k

NSIDC Daily Extent 9.559 million km2 an above average extent gain of 110 k by 51k, and 9th lowest in the satellite record. Extent is (no not listing them all) :-

Sea ice Extent catch-up complete, above average gain on this day (Kara filling up), and also there and beyond on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at just under +2 and getting lower to less than +1
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2090 on: November 13, 2018, 04:40:46 PM »
NSIDC stats for 11-12-18. Currently 2018 is 8th lowest, now surpassing 2017, 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2006. If current trends continue 2018 can "drop" to 11th lowest because 2015, 2013 and 2007 are stalling the next few days.

2018 - 9.559 km2 (8th)
2017 - 9.326 km2 (4th)
2016 - 8.649 km2 (1st)
2015 - 9.650 km2 (stalling next few days)
2014 - 9.827 km2
2013 - 9.575 km2 (stalling next few days)
2012 - 9.002 km2 (2nd)
2011 - 9.458 km2 (5th)
2010 - 9.521 km2 (7th)
2009 - 9.283 km2 (3rd)
2008 - 10.090 km2
2007 - 9.660 km2 (stalling next few days)
2006 - 9.500 km2 (6th)

Ice forming rapidly around edges all over east, west and Hudson with little propensity to slow.

Feel The Burn!

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2091 on: November 13, 2018, 08:58:53 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

if then does always apply, if something like 2016 will happen a drop to second lowest is possible and the list can be continued endlessly by picking out a single year or scenario.

so yes it's true what you're saying but if i tell you that water is wet it's also true and everyone is aware of it, hence no reason to point at it ;)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2092 on: November 13, 2018, 09:12:10 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

if then does always apply, if something like 2016 will happen a drop to second lowest is possible and the list can be continued endlessly by picking out a single year or scenario.

so yes it's true what you're saying but if i tell you that water is wet it's also true and everyone is aware of it, hence no reason to point at it ;)
Herewith a table of NSIDC Daily Extents as at 12 Nov

IGNORE 30 Dec 1899, there was no satellite data then.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2093 on: November 14, 2018, 04:40:24 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 13th:
   2018: 9,194,503 km2, an increase of 41,564 km2.
   2018 is the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2094 on: November 14, 2018, 09:32:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,194,503 km2(November 13, 2018)

- Extent increase at 42 k is at the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details.

- Freezing to date from minimum is 32 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 47.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.30 million km2 (420k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.06 million km2, (180k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just below average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1 celsius for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2095 on: November 14, 2018, 02:25:16 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,938,785 km2

Area gain 112 k which is 40 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 283 k > 2017 and
- 140 K > the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     31 k,
Central Seas     gain     69 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain      11 k, (Okhotsk + 2 k, St Lawrence +0 k, Hudson +10 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    1 k
Baffin                          gain   22  k
Greenland Sea             loss     5 k
Barents                       loss     4 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    19 k
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain     5 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain    7 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain     1 k,

Kara                                  gain     27 k (8 days of major gains)
Laptev                               loss       7 k (Nearly full up ice)
Chukchi                             gain     18 k (gains increasing rapidly in last 3 days)

Sea ice Area catch-up complete, above average gain on this day (Kara filling up), and also there and beyond on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains must still be expected in the next few days.

Other stuff
Arctic temperature anomaly at just under +1 and staying there for a few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2096 on: November 14, 2018, 02:27:10 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent 9.613 million km2 an above average extent gain of 54 k by 12k, and 8th lowest in the satellite record. See attached table
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Klondike Kat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2097 on: November 14, 2018, 02:42:15 PM »
NSIDC stats for 11-12-18. Currently 2018 is 8th lowest, now surpassing 2017, 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2006. If current trends continue 2018 can "drop" to 11th lowest because 2015, 2013 and 2007 are stalling the next few days.

2018 - 9.559 km2 (8th)
2017 - 9.326 km2 (4th)
2016 - 8.649 km2 (1st)
2015 - 9.650 km2 (stalling next few days)
2014 - 9.827 km2
2013 - 9.575 km2 (stalling next few days)
2012 - 9.002 km2 (2nd)
2011 - 9.458 km2 (5th)
2010 - 9.521 km2 (7th)
2009 - 9.283 km2 (3rd)
2008 - 10.090 km2
2007 - 9.660 km2 (stalling next few days)
2006 - 9.500 km2 (6th)

Ice forming rapidly around edges all over east, west and Hudson with little propensity to slow.

Not sure what to make of this all, but the ice gain over the past month is the second highest in the satellite history, with the gain over the past two weeks being the highest.  Based on current and forecast temperatures I expect this to continue in the short term.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2098 on: November 15, 2018, 05:27:45 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 14th:
   2018: 9,278,237 km2, an increase of 83,734 km2.
   2018 is the 6th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2099 on: November 15, 2018, 11:40:34 AM »
Not sure what to make of this all, but the ice gain over the past month is the second highest in the satellite history, with the gain over the past two weeks being the highest.  Based on current and forecast temperatures I expect this to continue in the short term.

Klondike Kat's statement in numbers:

2018 had the 2nd highest extent gain from November 1st to November 14th in satellite history. That's an impressive recovery from the very slow start of this year's freezing season.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 11:51:17 AM by Phil42 »