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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2100 on: November 15, 2018, 12:24:01 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,278,237 km2(November 14, 2018)

- Extent increase at 84 k is 8k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details.

- Freezing to date from minimum is 24 k (0.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 48.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.31 million km2 (430k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.08 million km2, (200k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum still just below average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1 celsius or less for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2101 on: November 15, 2018, 02:57:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 November (5 day trailing average) =  7,938,785 km2

Area gain 101 k which is 17 k greater than the 2010's average on the day,
Area now
- 251 k > 2017 and
- 157 K > the 2010's average.

Peripheral Seas gain     29 k,
Central Seas     gain     64 k,                                 
Other Seas       gain       8 k, (Okhotsk  -2 k, St Lawrence +1 k, Hudson +10 k)

Peripheral Seas
Bering                         gain    0 k
Baffin                          gain   17  k
Greenland Sea             loss     9 k
Barents                       loss     3 k

CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                       gain    18 k,
Canadian Archipelago (CAA) gain      6 k,
East Siberian Sea (ESS)       gain     11 k ,
Central Arctic Sea                gain     14 k,

Kara                                  gain      9 k (8 days of major gains)
Laptev                               loss      7 k (Nearly full up ice)
Chukchi                             gain     13 k (gains increasing rapidly in last 4 days)

Sea ice Area catch-up complete, above average gain on this day (Kara filling up), and also there and beyond on Area. Also, due to 5 day trailing average used for area, above average area gains must still be expected in the next few days BUT daily extent loss this day. Just a blip?

Other stuff
GFS all over he place, changes day by day. Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 and staying there for a few days. Signs of big shifts in location of colder and warmer locations. We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2102 on: November 15, 2018, 04:38:04 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent 14 November 2018 9.578 million km2, a drop of 36 k, extent now 5th lowest in the satellite record. See attached table

Just a blip in above average extent gain trend ?
[/quote]
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jdallen

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2103 on: November 15, 2018, 05:30:49 PM »
Not sure what to make of this all, but the ice gain over the past month is the second highest in the satellite history, with the gain over the past two weeks being the highest.  Based on current and forecast temperatures I expect this to continue in the short term.

Klondike Kat's statement in numbers:

2018 had the 2nd highest extent gain from November 1st to November 14th in satellite history. That's an impressive recovery from the very slow start of this year's freezing season.
The closer an oscillating system gets to it's boundary conditions, the greater its volatility.  That's my take away.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2104 on: November 16, 2018, 05:10:51 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 15th: No data yet. Maybe they are on holiday.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

dnem

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2105 on: November 16, 2018, 01:41:21 PM »

The closer an oscillating system gets to it's boundary conditions, the greater its volatility.  That's my take away.
[/quote]

This is exactly what I've been thinking.  I think a lot of the high variability we are now seeing: record low extent here, record high there, record losses now, record gains then, all fit a general pattern of enhanced variability in a complex system at it approaches a state change.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2106 on: November 16, 2018, 03:07:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 November (5 day trailing average) =  8,146,405 km2

Sorry all, tables only today. (work-in-progress on automating the post)
Area         
 8,146,405    km2      
 168,071    km2   >    the 2010's average.
 238,424    k   >   2017
Area gain           
 106,216    km2      
 11,206    km3   >    the 2010's average.



Other stuff
GFS all over he place, changes day by day. Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 and staying there for a few days. Signs of big shifts in location of colder and warmer locations. We will see.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2107 on: November 16, 2018, 03:49:41 PM »
The Baffin ( / Labrador ) Seas is currently gaining area to the extent it is currently well ahead of the 1980's average. Impressive.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2108 on: November 16, 2018, 03:56:43 PM »
Atlantic Front

Greenland Sea - up and down like a yo-yo.
Barents Sea     - still slow to gain area
Kara Sea          - fast gain but slowing?
Laptev Sea       - nearly done but area loss of >20k in last 4 days or so.

Still half of the freezing season to go for the Arctic as a whole.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2109 on: November 17, 2018, 04:58:42 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

There is not data for Nov 15th.
November 16th:
   2018: 9,505,803 km2, an increase on two days of 227,566 km2 (avg  113,783 km2 per day).
   2018 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2110 on: November 17, 2018, 10:49:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,505,803 km2(November 16, 2018)

- Extent increase at 223 k over the last 2 days is 72 k above the average (2008-2017) for these 2 days,
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details.

- Freezing to date from minimum is 47 k (0.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 50.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.38 million km2 (500k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.21 million km2, (330k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now just above average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1.5 to +2 celsius  for the next few days.

On average (last 10 years) Just half of extent gain from min to max is now done with 115 days to maximum. So who is brave enough to predict the final outcome?
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2111 on: November 17, 2018, 02:35:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 November (5 day trailing average) =  8,146,405 km2

Sorry all, no full analysis only today. (work-in-progress on automating the post)

Area   -   -   -
 8,271,389    km2   -   -
 191,063    km2   >    the 2010's average.
 290,088    k   >   2017
Area gain     -   -   -
 124,984    km2   -   -
 22,992    km3   >    the 2010's average.
Peripheral Seas    30    k   gain
Central Seas       78    k   gain
Other Seas    17    k   gain

Other stuff
GFS all over the place, changes day by day. Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 to +2 and staying there for a few days. Signs of big shifts in location of colder and warmer locations. We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2112 on: November 17, 2018, 04:15:01 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.
Feel The Burn!

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2113 on: November 17, 2018, 05:43:44 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.

You are easily impressed.

bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2114 on: November 17, 2018, 05:53:27 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.

You are easily impressed.
I love when we agree on things  8) 8) 8)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2115 on: November 17, 2018, 06:04:21 PM »
One for bbr - Hudson Bay area increase starting to hit the upslope.

+ three seas that are almost done
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2116 on: November 17, 2018, 06:17:51 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.

You are easily impressed.
I love when we agree on things  8) 8) 8)

It'll probably happen again sometime next year.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2117 on: November 17, 2018, 07:37:02 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.

What goes up can go down. On average, just about exactly half-way through extent gain minimum to maximum. Also, with Beaufort, the CAA, the ESS and the Laptev just about full up, much depends on ocean and atmospheric conditions in different parts of the Arctic three or four months from now.  An exceptionally low extent in the Barents, Greenland and the Bering seas could be sufficient for another record low maximum, or......the opposite.
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bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2118 on: November 17, 2018, 07:43:31 PM »
Can you do Bering + Barentz graphs? I bet both will be record low this winter / spring and that opens record minimum maximum possibility (IMO). After Hudson is mostly done in a few days, gains will be mostly confined to Kara (will take another week or three), Baffin (will gain into spring), and eventually Okhotsk (which I do not think will have as strong a year as it has had recently, but will still see decent ice). That means momentum should begin petering out fairly rapidly fairly shortly.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2119 on: November 17, 2018, 08:23:54 PM »
Can you do Bering + Barentz graphs? I bet both will be record low this winter / spring and that opens record minimum maximum possibility (IMO). After Hudson is mostly done in a few days, gains will be mostly confined to Kara (will take another week or three), Baffin (will gain into spring), and eventually Okhotsk (which I do not think will have as strong a year as it has had recently, but will still see decent ice). That means momentum should begin petering out fairly rapidly fairly shortly.
Too early for Bering.
Chukchi filling up, but still well behind 2010's average.

Barents behind schedule.
Greenland - Fram Export again?
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2120 on: November 17, 2018, 10:56:30 PM »
Quote
After Hudson is mostly done in a few days
You don't give up easily bbr, but Hudson is not done by now as you predicted, neither will it be done in a few days, and repeating extraordinary claims does make them more true. Hudson Bay (including Foxe Basin) is currently at an ice cover of ~20% (UH area). It seems to be following other recent years on a rather ordinary trajectory.

bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2121 on: November 17, 2018, 11:24:10 PM »
Quote
After Hudson is mostly done in a few days
You don't give up easily bbr, but Hudson is not done by now as you predicted, neither will it be done in a few days, and repeating extraordinary claims does make them more true. Hudson Bay (including Foxe Basin) is currently at an ice cover of ~20% (UH area). It seems to be following other recent years on a rather ordinary trajectory.
I think you are wrong. Look at EOSDIS. Ice is expanding very rapidly from both NW & NE. EURO shows all of HB sub 30-29F within 72 hours. It is already mostly there. And the airmass is frigid!

Area is exploding in Hudson Strait as well. 11/16 vs today. Same is happening in Hudson as we speak.



« Last Edit: November 17, 2018, 11:29:39 PM by bbr2314 »

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2122 on: November 18, 2018, 12:09:24 AM »
A. UH AMSR2 area is the most reliable and accurate measure, IMHO.
B. I assume you are aware that in these maps only the reds are fully ice-covered.

bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2123 on: November 18, 2018, 12:21:10 AM »
A. UH AMSR2 area is the most reliable and accurate measure, IMHO.
B. I assume you are aware that in these maps only the reds are fully ice-covered.
A. I like EOSDIS!
B. Yes, I am aware. But if you are talking extent, anything 15% or above counts, i.e. almost everything in that frame (the green is 10-30% concentration). It shows how rapidly things are icing up more than anything else.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2124 on: November 18, 2018, 04:21:10 AM »
This thread as well as most threads on this forum need reliable information. bbr can bring up good points at times but bbr makes to many predictions and thinks pretty wild. For example there is no ice age coming
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2125 on: November 18, 2018, 04:45:47 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 17th, 2018:
     9,611,090 km2, an increase of 105,287 km2.
     2018 is now the 9th ::) lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2126 on: November 18, 2018, 10:56:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,611,090 km2(November 17, 2018)

- Extent increase at 105 k is 48 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).

- Freezing to date from minimum is 95 k (1.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 50.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.43 million km2 (550k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.29 million km2, (410k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now just above average, although the late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory. GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1.5 to +2 celsius  for the next few days.

On average (last 10 years) Just half of extent gain from min to max is now done with 114 days to maximum. So who is brave enough to predict the final outcome?
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2127 on: November 18, 2018, 04:02:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 November (5 day trailing average) =  8,394,236 km2

Area         
 8,394,236    km2      
 222,203    km2   >   the 2010's average.
 360,629    k   >   2017
Area gain           
 122,847    km2      
 122,847    km3   >   the 2010's average.
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas       72    k   gain
Other Seas    29    k   gain
Peripheral Seas         
Bering     -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay    9    k   gain
Greenland    10    k   gain
Barents           4    k   gain
CAB Seas         
Beaufort    11    k   gain
CAA    4    k   gain
East Siberian    16    k   gain
Central Arctic    24    k   gain
Kara    11    k   gain
Laptev   -4    k   loss
Chukchi    11    k   gain
Other Seas           
Okhotsk   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay    29    k   gain

Other stuff
GFS all over the place, changes day by day. Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 to +2 and staying there for a few days. Signs of big shifts in location of colder and warmer locations. We will see.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2128 on: November 18, 2018, 04:35:53 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent continues to steeply increase, now at 10.030 million km2.
Table attached
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Feeltheburn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2129 on: November 18, 2018, 05:16:13 PM »
For those who are impressed with rankings, 2018 just blew past 2015 in ice extent and is now in 11th place (per NSIDC) with no signs of letting up the impressive run. Lots of open areas that need ice may be getting ice soon.
Feel The Burn!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2130 on: November 19, 2018, 05:10:19 AM »
For those who are impressed with rankings, 2018 just blew past 2015 in ice extent and is now in 11th place (per NSIDC) with no signs of letting up the impressive run. Lots of open areas that need ice may be getting ice soon.
The same with JAXA   ::)

[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 18th, 2018:
      9,795,640 km2, an increase of 184,550 km2.
     2018 is now the 11th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Rodius

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2131 on: November 19, 2018, 06:40:12 AM »
This may belong in the stupid questions but I will start here.

Given the rapid freeze, and it being late to start alongside above average temps, is the ice going to thicken up over the remaining freezing season?
My concern here is that even with extent growing quickly, I suspect the volume wont follow suit.

If this is correct at the end of the season, the melt will be rapid..... I am not fond of that idea but it makes sense in my head based on what I see here.

Wherestheice

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2132 on: November 19, 2018, 07:36:52 AM »
This may belong in the stupid questions but I will start here.

Given the rapid freeze, and it being late to start alongside above average temps, is the ice going to thicken up over the remaining freezing season?
My concern here is that even with extent growing quickly, I suspect the volume wont follow suit.

If this is correct at the end of the season, the melt will be rapid..... I am not fond of that idea but it makes sense in my head based on what I see here.

In general that sounds like a definite possibility. The faster the ice refreezes, the less heat is released into the atmosphere. We will have to watch this one closely
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Cato

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2133 on: November 19, 2018, 11:07:35 AM »
This may belong in the stupid questions but I will start here.

Given the rapid freeze, and it being late to start alongside above average temps, is the ice going to thicken up over the remaining freezing season?
My concern here is that even with extent growing quickly, I suspect the volume wont follow suit.

If this is correct at the end of the season, the melt will be rapid..... I am not fond of that idea but it makes sense in my head based on what I see here.

Generally speaking, in order for the ice to thicken up and accumulate, it must first...form  :o

I've never understood much the argument of "early freeze" which negatively affect volumes. It goes without saying that ice acts as a blanket over the seawater, insulating it from colder air based on a temperature gradient that is established along the section of the ice cover as it gets thicker. This is just thermodynamics. But on the other hand would we be worried for thermal insulation of seawater if there was a layer of ice 5-meters thick all aver the Arctic? Do not think so.

I'm a supporter of the Razor of Occam: when there is a simple explanation for something, that's probably the best explanation. Ice is growing quickly over the Arctic because it's fairly cold, temperatures have been dropping constantly in the last few weeks, and the synoptic configuration is favourable to accumulation of cold air over the Arctic basin. As simple as that, as long as this lasts...



gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2134 on: November 19, 2018, 11:52:02 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,795,640 km2(November 18, 2018)

- Extent increase at 185 k is 149 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 244 k (4.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 51.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.58 million km2 (700k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.46 million km2, (580k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now well above average.
The late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory.
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +1 to +2 celsius  for the next few days.

On average (last 10 years) Just half of extent gain from min to max is now done with 113 days to maximum. So who is brave enough to predict the final outcome, given a period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse?
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Unmex Chingon

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2135 on: November 19, 2018, 02:28:01 PM »
This may belong in the stupid questions but I will start here.

Given the rapid freeze, and it being late to start alongside above average temps, is the ice going to thicken up over the remaining freezing season?
My concern here is that even with extent growing quickly, I suspect the volume wont follow suit.

If this is correct at the end of the season, the melt will be rapid..... I am not fond of that idea but it makes sense in my head based on what I see here.

Generally speaking, in order for the ice to thicken up and accumulate, it must first...form  :o

I've never understood much the argument of "early freeze" which negatively affect volumes. It goes without saying that ice acts as a blanket over the seawater, insulating it from colder air based on a temperature gradient that is established along the section of the ice cover as it gets thicker. This is just thermodynamics. But on the other hand would we be worried for thermal insulation of seawater if there was a layer of ice 5-meters thick all aver the Arctic? Do not think so.

I'm a supporter of the Razor of Occam: when there is a simple explanation for something, that's probably the best explanation. Ice is growing quickly over the Arctic because it's fairly cold, temperatures have been dropping constantly in the last few weeks, and the synoptic configuration is favourable to accumulation of cold air over the Arctic basin. As simple as that, as long as this lasts...

I like this!  If there is no ice it is bad - if there is ice it is bad.  What scenario would be good?

Getting a lot of ice during this refreeze is a lot better than no ice at all - if the goal is get back to average arctic conditions.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2136 on: November 19, 2018, 02:37:37 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 November (5 day trailing average) =  8,504,252 km2

Area         
Total Area         
8,504,252    km2      
 255,938    km2   >   the 2010's average.
 422,602    k   >   2017
gain         
 110,034    km2   >   the 2010's average.
         
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__    61    k   gain
Other Seas___    37    k   gain

Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain

CAB Seas         
Beaufort    3    k   gain
CAA    3    k   gain
East Siberian    18    k   gain
Central Arctic    20    k   gain
Kara    6    k   gain
Laptev    1    k   gain
Chukchi    10    k   gain

Other Seas           
Okhotsk   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay    38    k   gain

Other stuff
GFS all over the place, changes day by day. Arctic temperature anomaly at around +1.5 to +2 and staying there for a few days. Signs of big shifts in location of colder and warmer locations by the weekend. We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2137 on: November 19, 2018, 02:51:59 PM »
NSIDC -  Arctic Sea Ice Daily Extent data as at 18 Nov 2018 10.110 million km2

Increase of 81k well above average
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2138 on: November 19, 2018, 07:19:40 PM »
Area vs. Extent

Which of the 2 graphs attached gives a truer picture of what's going on in Hudson Bay?
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Rodius

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2139 on: November 19, 2018, 09:58:09 PM »
This may belong in the stupid questions but I will start here.

Given the rapid freeze, and it being late to start alongside above average temps, is the ice going to thicken up over the remaining freezing season?
My concern here is that even with extent growing quickly, I suspect the volume wont follow suit.

If this is correct at the end of the season, the melt will be rapid..... I am not fond of that idea but it makes sense in my head based on what I see here.

Generally speaking, in order for the ice to thicken up and accumulate, it must first...form  :o

I've never understood much the argument of "early freeze" which negatively affect volumes. It goes without saying that ice acts as a blanket over the seawater, insulating it from colder air based on a temperature gradient that is established along the section of the ice cover as it gets thicker. This is just thermodynamics. But on the other hand would we be worried for thermal insulation of seawater if there was a layer of ice 5-meters thick all aver the Arctic? Do not think so.

I'm a supporter of the Razor of Occam: when there is a simple explanation for something, that's probably the best explanation. Ice is growing quickly over the Arctic because it's fairly cold, temperatures have been dropping constantly in the last few weeks, and the synoptic configuration is favourable to accumulation of cold air over the Arctic basin. As simple as that, as long as this lasts...

I like this!  If there is no ice it is bad - if there is ice it is bad.  What scenario would be good?

Getting a lot of ice during this refreeze is a lot better than no ice at all - if the goal is get back to average arctic conditions.

We wont be returning to normal Arctic conditions.
This means that the path is for the Arctic to continue to reduce then disappear.
The only question is when and through which means.

My punt is extend to slowly reduce but volume to drastically reduce with the BOE looking like the past 5 years at the end of the freeze but due to lack of volume the melt will happen quickly and surprise most people at the "suddenness" of the event.

My eyes, while extent matters, is on the volume. That is why I am curious about volume and whether the sudden freezing will affect the volume later on this season.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2140 on: November 20, 2018, 01:14:26 AM »
I too am wondering about volume, as the most important (though hard to measure) metric. But I do believe it had above-average growth recently, as the temperatures are rather on the cold side, relatively speaking, and area growth has certainly been above-average.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2141 on: November 20, 2018, 04:53:09 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 19th, 2018:
     9,868,007 km2, an increase of 72,367 km2.
     2018 is the 11th lowest on record.


PS: Not official value on 2003 and 2006. The values are an average.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Brigantine

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2142 on: November 20, 2018, 07:49:46 AM »
Where is 2008? It can't be too far above 1996 right?

Other than 1996 and 2003, the years on the list are all the years since 2005 - with only 2008 missing.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2143 on: November 20, 2018, 08:09:59 AM »
The faster the ice refreezes, the less heat is released into the atmosphere. We will have to watch this one closely


I'm not sure I believe this. Ice freezes faster when the air is colder above it, not because the ocean is warmer (contains more heat) below it. Moreover, the sooner ice forms and the longer it continues to form, generally the thicker it gets.

On another front, the Chuchki sea is freezing more quickly and to a greater extent than last year at this time, which is very good news indeed. Now if only the Barents sea will get its act together.
Feel The Burn!

Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2144 on: November 20, 2018, 09:05:26 AM »
2008 is at 10'240'135km2, ranked 17th.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2145 on: November 20, 2018, 02:30:21 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 9,868,007 km2(November 19, 2018)

- Extent increase at 72 k is 23 k above the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 268 k (5.2%) GREATER than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 51.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.60 million km2 (720k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.51 million km2, (640k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now well above average.
The late refreeze in late September early October is now just a memory.
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +2 celsius  for the next few days.

On average (last 10 years) Just half of extent gain from min to max is now done with 113 days to maximum. So who is brave enough to predict the final outcome, given a period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse?
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2146 on: November 20, 2018, 03:22:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 November (5 day trailing average) =  8,626,779 km2

Total Area         
 8,626,779    km2      
 312,168    km2   >   the 2010's average.
 488,958    k   >   2017
         
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__    66    k   gain
Other Seas___    45    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    15    k   gain
Central Arctic_    15    k   gain
         
Kara_________    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    15    k   gain
         
Other Seas           
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    45    k   gain

Other stuff
GFS all over the place, changes day by day. Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 and staying there for a few days. Signs of big shifts in location of colder and warmer locations by the weekend. We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2147 on: November 20, 2018, 09:47:28 PM »
Pacific Gateway

Bering Sea - reaching that time of year when worth watching.
Chukchi - freezing is moderating
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2148 on: November 21, 2018, 05:31:13 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

November 20th, 2018:
     9,972,794 km2, an increase of 104,787 km2.
     2018 is now the 12th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2149 on: November 21, 2018, 09:11:10 AM »
To put current events a bit in perspective: The last time the daily JAXA arctic sea ice extent did not rank in the top 11 was 25th April 2012. Since then, every single day was in the lowest 11 at the time - until yesterday.

That's a great signal for the ice. But on the other hand, we all know what happened the months after the last time it was this "high" in 2012.