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Alexander555

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2250 on: December 02, 2018, 08:25:31 PM »
They are probably going to stay a cause for consern, don't you think ?It's the oceans that store long term heat. And the biggest part of that comes from near the equator. But maybe a little more snow is a good thing for Greenland in the short term.

Alexander555

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2251 on: December 02, 2018, 08:28:29 PM »
I had to wear my summer jacket again this week, because it's much to warm for my winter jacket. And a summer jacket in December is a strange thing. It was almost 15 degree C today. Near Brussels, not that far from London. The Atlantic is keeping us warm.

magnamentis

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2252 on: December 02, 2018, 08:48:58 PM »

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but now looks like going up (still below average gain). But screwed up bbr's forecast by about a week.


the original prediction will be screwed up by about a month ( done by the 15th of october)

corrected prediction of 75% will be at least 3 weeks off, perhaps even 4 weeks, depending

final prediction of 50-75% by the 15th of november i consider hanging the flags into the wind.

either way 1 month during the freezing season is a lot of wood, somehow i thing this is end of topic.
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bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2253 on: December 03, 2018, 02:29:33 AM »

Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but now looks like going up (still below average gain). But screwed up bbr's forecast by about a week.


the original prediction will be screwed up by about a month ( done by the 15th of october)

corrected prediction of 75% will be at least 3 weeks off, perhaps even 4 weeks, depending

final prediction of 50-75% by the 15th of november i consider hanging the flags into the wind.

either way 1 month during the freezing season is a lot of wood, somehow i thing this is end of topic.
I never said 10/15 for HB that was for Foxe Basin. If you have nothing better to do maybe you can learn how to read instead of regurgitating this over and over again.

wdmn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2254 on: December 03, 2018, 03:10:15 AM »
How common is it to have these "wavy" patterns of ice growth, with stalls (even reversals) and then resumed growth? Hard to tell from decadal averages.

This is true in particular of the Greenland, and Beaufort seas.

magnamentis

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2255 on: December 03, 2018, 04:26:03 AM »
How common is it to have these "wavy" patterns of ice growth, with stalls (even reversals) and then resumed growth? Hard to tell from decadal averages.

generally you find the information for southern and northern hemisphere here:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

happens quite often also in the separate regions.

if you check the anomaly over i.e. 10 days here: (use the slider after choosing your region and criteria)

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom

you can see why, cold and warm anomalies more often than not, change frequently and depending on the temp level which you find by choosing 2m temps pull down menu point, it means melting or freezing. further if you check wind and wave action here.

https://www.windy.com/

you can guess even better, warm air from the south with high winds (i.e. cyclonic) will stirr things up even in january and very very much up north.


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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2256 on: December 03, 2018, 05:02:34 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 2nd, 2018:
     10,616,523 km2, an increase of only 7,021 km2.
     2018 is now the 8th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

wdmn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2257 on: December 03, 2018, 07:07:46 AM »
How common is it to have these "wavy" patterns of ice growth, with stalls (even reversals) and then resumed growth? Hard to tell from decadal averages.

generally you find the information for southern and northern hemisphere here:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

happens quite often also in the separate regions.

if you check the anomaly over i.e. 10 days here: (use the slider after choosing your region and criteria)

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom

you can see why, cold and warm anomalies more often than not, change frequently and depending on the temp level which you find by choosing 2m temps pull down menu point, it means melting or freezing. further if you check wind and wave action here.

https://www.windy.com/

you can guess even better, warm air from the south with high winds (i.e. cyclonic) will stirr things up even in january and very very much up north.

Thank you!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2258 on: December 03, 2018, 11:17:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,616,523 km2(December 2, 2018)

- Extent increase at 7 k is 71 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 61 k (1.0%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 62.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.27 million km2 (390k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.05 million km2, (170k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now just below average. For the tenth day extent gain is again below average, and by a lot. Position in table down from 13 to 8, and with 2011 and 2012 in shouting distance. But will this period of well below average gain end as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 100 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse and then back to low freezing some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +2 to +2.5 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
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litesong

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2259 on: December 03, 2018, 01:01:36 PM »
I had to wear my summer jacket again this week, because it's much to warm for my winter jacket.  The Atlantic is keeping us warm.
Don't travel to Siberia with just your summer jacket, because large parts of normally cold Siberia are 20 to 30degC below normal.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2260 on: December 03, 2018, 02:49:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,662,988   km2
Total Area         
 9,662,988    km2      
 343,107    km2   >    2010's average.
 537,401    k   >   2017
-183,805    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    24    k   
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__   -7    k   loss
Other Seas___    24    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    21    k   gain
Area gain well below average (by 52k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average.
This is now in line with recent very slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Other stuff
Hudson Bay gain slowed and then reversed due to warmth in southern half of Baffin Bay - but now looks like going up. Cold has returned.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 to +2.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return later this week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.
Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front this week.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2261 on: December 03, 2018, 07:44:42 PM »
It is time for my monthly update of deviations in sea ice extent compared to the long-term trend.
November 2018 (9.81 mio km²) saw a much smaller deficit (0.70 mio km² less than the November 1979-2018 average which is 10.51 mio km²) than October 2018. This is mainly due to the massive and fast freezing, especially in the first half of November (see details in this thread). Therefore the strong spike of October 2018 has been just a spike.
Compared to the long-term trend (blue thin line) the ice extent in November 2018 is above by around 0.31 mio km² (the last month actual sea ice extent has been above this linear trend line was July 2018).
See attached graph.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2262 on: December 03, 2018, 08:57:03 PM »
I note Stephan's graph shows the period ~1997 to ~2006 as having an uncharacteristically small deviation between neighboring years (+/- 3 years within that decade).  In essence, why was weather so stable then, and not before or since?  With the first seven of those years hardly ever dropping below the long term trend line, I wonder if this phenomenon suggests there was a change in slope, something Tamino's skills would be needed to determine if it was 'real' or 'just statistical variability'.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2263 on: December 03, 2018, 09:43:25 PM »
Maybe this comes from the fact that the average of 1979-2018 has its "centre" around the late 90s. Another reason may derive from the higher melting in summer / early autumn since 2007 which produces negative spikes (Aug/Sep/Oct) in the last decade (higher negative anomaly for these months) and vice versa in the 80s (high positive anomaly for these months in the early part of the graph).
Please note also that these data are not smoothed at all.

I checked in the graph whether a change in slope occurred:
1979-2004 it is around -0,039x, 2005-2018 it is around -0,042x (with a very low R²), probably a too small difference in slope to declare this as being real.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2018, 09:52:31 PM by Stephan »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2264 on: December 04, 2018, 03:26:17 AM »
thanks.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2265 on: December 04, 2018, 04:51:56 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 3rd, 2018:
     10,616,050 km2, a drop of -473 km2.
     2018 is now the 7th lowest on record.

     Not official value on 2007. Average used.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2266 on: December 04, 2018, 06:07:40 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,616,050 km2(December 3, 2018)

- Extent increase at 0 k is 72 k BELOW the average (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 133 k (2.1%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 63.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.20 million km2 (320k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.97 million km2, (100k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now  below average. For the eleventh day extent gain is again below average, and by a lot. Position in table down from 13 to 7, and with 2011 in shouting distance. But will this period of well below average gain end as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 98 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse and then back to low freezing some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +2 to +2.5 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2267 on: December 04, 2018, 02:11:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,677,401   km2
Total Area         
 9,677,401    km2      
 283,993    km2   >    2010's average.
 502,049    k   >   2017
-233,493    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    14    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__   -22    k   loss
Other Seas___    32    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -13    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    25    k   gain
Area gain well below average (by 57k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average.
This is now in line with recent very slow gains in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +2 to +2.5 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying warmer air has moved West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada for at least the next few days, but it may return later this week.
Relative warmth returned to Bering and Chukchi areas.
Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front this week. Kara Sea area loss on this day of 12k.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2268 on: December 05, 2018, 05:52:18 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 4th, 2018:
     10,611,593 km2, a drop of -4,457 km2.
     2018 is now the 5th lowest on record.  :o
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

miki

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2269 on: December 05, 2018, 05:59:16 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 4th, 2018:
     10,611,593 km2, a drop of -4,457 km2.
     2018 is now the 5th lowest on record.  :o

On and on, it does feel that the Arctic has had its 15 minutes, of freezing. Now, back to the requiem?

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2270 on: December 05, 2018, 07:04:30 AM »
It's too funny actually. First you have ~10 straight days of far above average gains, then ~10 straight days of far below average gains. The random number generator is broken...

Thanks again Juan and Gerontocrat for your continuous coverage.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2271 on: December 05, 2018, 10:41:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,611,593 km2(December 4, 2018)

- Extent loss at -4 k is 83 k BELOW the average gain (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 215 k (3.4%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 63.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.12 million km2 (240k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.90 million km2, (20k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now well below average. For the twelfth day extent gain is again below average, and by a lot. Note a couple of days losses in December is unusual, but not a rarity. Position in table down from 13 to 5, and with 2017 & 2010 in shouting distance. But will this period of well below average gain end as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 97 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse and then back to low freezing some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a higher temperature anomaly of around +3 to +4 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2272 on: December 05, 2018, 10:49:25 AM »
It's too funny actually. First you have ~10 straight days of far above average gains, then ~10 straight days of far below average gains. The random number generator is broken...

There was a discussion last year about how there are waves of above/below average melt/gain, and I think that has always been so, and probably due to temporary changes in wind, waves and temperatures. But the weather people hypothesise that global warming has weakened the polar jet stream and with big fat lazy Rossby waves weather patterns can stick around a lot longer.

I remember someone writing about "sticky weather" ? Perhaps this is showing up in longer waves of above/below average freeze/melt?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2273 on: December 05, 2018, 02:15:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,682,364  km2
Total Area         
 9,682,364    km2      
 214,491    km2   >    2010's average.
 464,392    k   >   2017
-289,925    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    5    k   
Peripheral Seas   -3    k   loss
Central Seas__   -36    k   loss
Other Seas___    44    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -31    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    38    k   gain
Area gain well below average (by 70k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average.
This is now in line with recent very slow gains (and even extent loss) in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3 to +4 and staying there for a few days. GFS Also saying another pulse of warmer air moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada over the next few days or even longer.
Relative warmth still in Bering and Chukchi areas.
Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front this week. Kara Sea area loss on this day of 31k.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2274 on: December 05, 2018, 02:28:19 PM »
It seems that much of the recent stall or even reverse of this season's freeze has happened in the Atlantic Front. (Please Aluminium, give us an update of your gif on the freezing thread).

Here are some graphs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2275 on: December 05, 2018, 02:31:58 PM »
The freeze is also proceeding very slowly in the Pacific Gateway seas.
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El Cid

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2276 on: December 05, 2018, 04:58:03 PM »
Great charts as usual!

It seems to me that the peripheral seas have an ever increasing heat content and that makes them harder to freeze as time goes by.

Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2277 on: December 05, 2018, 05:08:58 PM »
There was a discussion last year about how there are waves of above/below average melt/gain, and I think that has always been so, and probably due to temporary changes in wind, waves and temperatures. But the weather people hypothesise that global warming has weakened the polar jet stream and with big fat lazy Rossby waves weather patterns can stick around a lot longer.

I remember someone writing about "sticky weather" ? Perhaps this is showing up in longer waves of above/below average freeze/melt?

I have a very similar feeling regarding those "waves" that are getting slower and more extreme in intensity. Here are two tables from the last one and a half months.

The first table shows a new record ice gain from late October to late November. Then, starting from the date the first table ends, a new low record ice gain to today.

I am aware that these dates are cherry-picked, but it's still a rather remarkable development in my opinion. Not to forget that there was also the (probably record) slow start of the freezing season. A clear slow-fast-slow pattern so far this freezing season.

Rodius

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2278 on: December 05, 2018, 10:36:23 PM »
I have only been watching the Arctic for a year or so and while compiling the fluctuations I noticed the "waves" as well. There are a few of them throughout the year.

I have a little bit of understanding of the mechanics but one thing I noticed with the "waves" when comparing dates is they dont match up nicely as per your comparisons.

BUT, it looks like a better comparison is to select dates within 2 weeks of each other where the large increase/decreases happen and compare those.

For example, (I watch NSIDC) there appears to be a relative match of slow freeze between 10 Nov and 21 Nov then increased freezing seems common between Nov 21 and Dec 8. The wave of increases/decreases is relatively consistent and fairly predictable.
It may have something to do with when certain seas freeze over, might be wind patterns that change at that time of year, I really dont know why, it just looks obvious to me.

I am sure the experts already have noticed this though so I am hoping to be educated on the why.


oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2279 on: December 06, 2018, 04:03:28 AM »
I would not be surprised if a lot of the waviness goes away should the Hudson (and Okhotsk for later in the season) be taken out of the statistics.
But I think the physical mechanism is that once a sea or a certain regional part commences freezing in earnest, it goes rapidly. I guess first the water is cooled and mixed downward, then at some point the whole lot is ready to freeze. Check out the behavior of Laptev and then Kara this year - waits forever, then goes boom.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2280 on: December 06, 2018, 04:53:54 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 5th, 2018:
     10,641,797 km2, an increase of 30,204 km2.
     2018 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2281 on: December 06, 2018, 05:08:58 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 5th, 2018:
     10,641,797 km2, an increase of 30,204 km2.
     2018 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Calling FeelTheBurn and his denier-talk re: excellent refreeze. Bueller? Bueller?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2282 on: December 06, 2018, 09:22:05 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,641,797 km2(December 5, 2018)

- Extent gain at 30 k is 46 k BELOW the average gain (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 262 k (4.1%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 64.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.07 million km2 (190k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.90 million km2, (20k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now well below average. For the twelfth day extent gain is again below average, and by a lot. Note a couple of days losses in December is unusual, but not a rarity. Position in table down from 13 to 5, and with 2017 & 2010 in shouting distance. But will this period of well below average gain end as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 97 days to maximum. Despite the period of extremely low freezing followed by the reverse and then back to low freezing some are nevertheless brave enough to predict the outcome as at December 31.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a higher temperature anomaly of around +3 to +4 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2283 on: December 06, 2018, 03:26:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,686,201  km2
Total Area         
 9,686,201    km2      
 144,525    km2   >    2010's average.
 420,503    k   >   2017
-347,674    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    4    k   
Peripheral Seas   -3    k   loss
Central Seas__   -41    k   loss
Other Seas___    48    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -37    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    41    k   gain
Area gain well below average (by 70k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average, and apparoaching down to 2010's average.
This is in line with recent very slow gains (and even extent loss) in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +4.5 and declining to +3 over the next few days. GFS Also saying another pulse of warmer air moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada over the next few days or even longer.
Okhotsk, Bering and Chukchi areas are below zero, and no major pulses of warmth on the horizon.
Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front this week.
Kara Sea area loss on this day of 37k.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2284 on: December 07, 2018, 05:02:00 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 6th, 2018:
     10,717,696 km2, an increase of 75,899 km2.
     2018 is now the 3th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2285 on: December 07, 2018, 08:53:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,717,696 km2(December 6, 2018)

- Extent gain at 76 k is 10 k ABOVE the average gain (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 251 k (3.9%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 65.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.08 million km2 (200k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.93 million km2, (50k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now back above average. Is this day's above average increase a sign of this period of well below average gain ending as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 95 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a higher temperature anomaly of around +3 to +4 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2286 on: December 07, 2018, 02:23:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,709,423  km2
Total Area         
 9,709,423    km2      
 94,985    km2   >    2010's average.
 394,076    k   >   2017
-381,539    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    23    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__   -34    k   loss
Other Seas___    53    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -38    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    11    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    50    k   gain
Area gain well below average (by 50k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average, and apparoaching down to 2010's average.
This is in line with recent very slow gains (and even extent loss) in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3.5 over the next few days. GFS Also saying another pulse of warmer air moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada over the next few days or even longer.
Okhotsk, Bering and Chukchi areas are below zero, and no major pulses of warmth on the horizon.
Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front this week.
Kara Sea area loss on this day of 38k.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2287 on: December 08, 2018, 04:49:25 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 7th, 2018:
     10,798,812 km2, an increase of 81,116 km2.
     2018 is the 3th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2288 on: December 08, 2018, 10:07:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,798,812 km2(December 7, 2018)

- Extent gain at 81 k is 22 k ABOVE the average gain (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 229 k (3.5%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 65.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.10 million km2 (220k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.95 million km2, (70k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now back above average. Is this last 2 days above average increase a sign of this period of well below average gain ending as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) approaching 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 95 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a higher temperature anomaly of around +3 to +4 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2289 on: December 08, 2018, 02:10:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,742,472 km2
Total Area         
 9,742,472    km2      
 56,638    km2   >    2010's average.
 376,426    k   >   2017
-410,697    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    33    k   
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__   -30    k   loss
Other Seas___    54    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -34    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    13    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    54    k   gain
Area gain well below average (by 38k).
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average, and approaching down to 2010's average.
This is in line with recent very slow gains (and even extent loss) in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data).

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3.5 over the next few days. GFS Also saying another pulse of warmer air moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada over the next few days or even longer.
Okhotsk, Bering and Chukchi areas are below zero, and no major pulses of warmth on the horizon.

Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front looks like continuing for a good few days more..
Kara Sea area loss on this day of 34k. Also Central Arctic Sea losses continuing (See next post).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2290 on: December 08, 2018, 02:19:44 PM »
Sea ice losses on the Atlantic Front over the last week are impressive. Temperature anomalies in the far north Atlantic suggest that losses, or a t least well below average gains, could continue for some time.

Indeed, if not for Hudson Bay at last spurting for the finishing line, Arctic Sea Ice Area Gain would be negative.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2291 on: December 08, 2018, 02:28:42 PM »
An image to show why I think that for the next few days area gain on the Atlantic Front will be low or even -ve.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2292 on: December 08, 2018, 02:29:31 PM »
Seems like almost the only gains are in HB. Chukchi is also showing extent gains, but other sees are either stable or decreasing.

Hudson Bay still has 200.000 km2 to go but the forecast for the coming week is for rapidly falling temperatures and, particularly towards the end of the week, steady and at times strong southerlies - to be taken with a pillar or two of salt.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2293 on: December 08, 2018, 04:19:23 PM »
Another 100,000 Km2 and Hudson Bay will be 75% covered in ice (NSIDC Area).

jdallen

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2294 on: December 09, 2018, 02:09:11 AM »
An image to show why I think that for the next few days area gain on the Atlantic Front will be low or even -ve.
The 5 day averages on the Atlantic side are just nuts.
This space for Rent.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2295 on: December 09, 2018, 04:45:08 AM »
[ADS-NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 8th, 2018:
     10,880,650 km2, an increase of 81,838 km2.
     2018 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2296 on: December 09, 2018, 08:26:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 10,880,650 km2(December 8, 2018)

- Extent gain at 82 k is 17 k ABOVE the average gain (2008-2017) on this day,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 212 k (3.2%) LESS than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 66.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.12 million km2 (240k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.97 million km2, (90k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum now back above average. Is this last 3 days above average increase a sign of this period of well below average gain ending as the freeze takes hold in the peripheral seas?

On average (last 10 years) exactly 2/3rds of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 93 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic is at a temperature anomaly of around +3.5 to +4 celsius  for the next few days.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2297 on: December 09, 2018, 02:26:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 December (5 day trailing average) = 9,796,842 km2
Total Area         
 9,796,842    km2      
 40,006    km2   >    2010's average.
 365,806    k   >   2017
-420,522    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain    54    k   
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___    56    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -27    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    21    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    59    k   gain
Area gain below average (by 16k) but increasing day by day.
Area now retreating from the approach to the 2000's average, and approaching down to 2010's average.
This is in line with recent very slow gains (and even extent loss) in daily extent (both JAXA and NSIDC data) which is now changing to increasing extent gain.

Other stuff
GFS says Arctic temperature anomaly at around +3.5 over the next few days. GFS Also saying another pulse of warmer air moving West to East across N. America greatly reducing extreme cold in Central and NE Canada over the next few days or even longer.
Okhotsk, Bering and Chukchi areas are below zero, and no major pulses of warmth on the horizon. Result is showing in the Chukchi area gains, but not yet elsewhere.

Fierce +ve temp anomaly over the Atlantic front looks like continuing for a good few days more..
Kara Sea area loss on this day of 27 k. Also Central Arctic Sea losses continuing. Either losses will continue, or gains will be low, until the weather pattern changes.

Increase in area gain mainly driven by Hudson Bay (+60k on this day). But this is self-limiting as at this rate of gain the Bay will be full-up ice in less than a week.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2298 on: December 09, 2018, 02:36:18 PM »
Just for bbr, the Hudson Bay Area graph.
Better late than never?

BUT, will the warmth heading West to East across North America slow or even halt area gain, or will that relative warmth be too little and/or too late to prevent the completion of the freeze?

Time will tell.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2299 on: December 10, 2018, 05:00:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 9th, 2018:
     10,963,122 km2, an increase of 82,472 km2.
     2018 is now the 3rd lowest on record.

     Interesting: the 3 lowest years are the last 3 years: 2016, 2017 & 2018.  ;)
« Last Edit: December 10, 2018, 05:25:08 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.