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Klondike Kat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2350 on: December 18, 2018, 02:47:06 PM »
Another reason to query the JAXA data..

NSIDC Daily extent 5th lowest,
JAXA Daily extent 10th lowest.

A difference of 1 or 2 positions in the table is not unusual, but 5?

It appears to be all a result of the huge spike recently in the JAXA data, and the fact that the numbers are clustered rather closely . Add about 200k to the NSIDC measurements and the positions will match.  I would question why the spike occurred in one and not the other.

Stephan

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2351 on: December 18, 2018, 06:47:34 PM »
I think we all should wait a couple of days until the measurements are (then hopefully) settled again.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2352 on: December 18, 2018, 10:34:11 PM »
Remember that the ADS/NIPR extent figures are two-day averages. The spike occurred on the 16th,  affecting the 15-16 and 16-17 (reported as 16 and 17 th december data) equally. On the 18th the situation will return to normal (hopefully).

My no-average extent calculation from Jaxa SIC jumped a +1010k on the 16th.

I believe that Wipneus is right in his comment, so hopefully, we just have to wait six hours to see a drop on the next ADS NIPR value.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2353 on: December 19, 2018, 04:51:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 18th, 2018:
     11,564,084 km2, a drop of -256,774 km2.
     [Correction of malfunction on Dec 16th. Back to correct values.]
     2018 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2354 on: December 19, 2018, 06:08:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,564,084 km2(December 18, 2018)

Hopefully order has been restored, and maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December.

- Extent gain over the last three days well below average  (2008-2017),
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 214 k (2.9%) ABOVE the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 73.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.12 million km2 (240k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 143.91 million km2, (30k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day well below average. On average (last 10 years) approaching 3/4ths of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 83 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2. celsius declines to zero by the weekend and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea, and cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 06:23:23 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2355 on: December 19, 2018, 02:49:34 PM »
No data for 18 Dec from NSIDC yet. Are both JAXA and NSIDC satellites in need of some maintenance ?

The data has arrived. How dare NSIDC be 1 or 2 hours late !

Analysis under way - wait small (South Pacific Pidgin).
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 03:52:04 PM by gerontocrat »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2356 on: December 19, 2018, 04:14:08 PM »
Yes, the pendulum has swung back and order is restored. 

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2357 on: December 19, 2018, 04:19:43 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 December (5 day trailing average) =  10,430,291 km2
Total Area         
 10,430,291    km2      
-61,857    km2   <    2010's average.
 145,901    k   >   2017
-493,776    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    70    k   
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    38    k   gain
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______    19    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area gain above average (by 20k).
Area less than the 2000's average by 494k, and just 62k below the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2 celsius drops to zero or -ve over the next week. A series of warm pulses continue to give high +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front.    -ve anomalies in the Bering sea. High +ve anomalies in central Canada until cold returns from the West. So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2358 on: December 20, 2018, 05:30:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 19th, 2018:
     11,595,989 km2, an increase of 31,905 km2.
     2018 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

El Cid

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2359 on: December 20, 2018, 07:43:16 AM »
Maybe you should take the "bump" out of this year's graph in the past few days, as those data points are clearly false (and not just for this year vbut also for comparisons for the next years).

Viggy

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2360 on: December 20, 2018, 09:18:13 AM »
Maybe you should take the "bump" out of this year's graph in the past few days, as those data points are clearly false (and not just for this year vbut also for comparisons for the next years).

As the data is refuted, corrrected or confirmed, the graphs will be amended accordingly. Data points being ‘clearly false’ has no scientific bearing unless you can explain why it’s so clear ... and while we know it is likely incorrect, the scientific method still requires an explanation for the change.

The alternative, to ‘take the bump out’, would require the fabrication of data points ...

bbr2314

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2361 on: December 20, 2018, 09:34:38 AM »
Maybe you should take the "bump" out of this year's graph in the past few days, as those data points are clearly false (and not just for this year vbut also for comparisons for the next years).

As the data is refuted, corrrected or confirmed, the graphs will be amended accordingly. Data points being ‘clearly false’ has no scientific bearing unless you can explain why it’s so clear ... and while we know it is likely incorrect, the scientific method still requires an explanation for the change.

The alternative, to ‘take the bump out’, would require the fabrication of data points ...
This obsession with false data is deranged and I can't believe Neven has allowed it to dominate this thread for pages on end.

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2362 on: December 20, 2018, 09:38:11 AM »
I thought that 257K increase was a lot of fun!
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2363 on: December 20, 2018, 09:52:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,595,989 km2(December 19, 2018)

Maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December.

- Extent gain 32k, 7kl below average  (2008-2017),
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 221 k (3.0%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 73.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.11 million km2 (230k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.91 million km2, (30k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) approaching 3/4ths of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 83 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2. celsius declines to zero by next Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea, and cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Nemesis

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2364 on: December 20, 2018, 11:55:49 AM »
@Neven

" I thought that 257K increase was a lot of fun!"

Me too  ;D Soon these measurements will be quite obsolete anyway :)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2365 on: December 20, 2018, 03:55:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 December (5 day trailing average) =  10,509,044 km2
Total Area         
 10,509,044    km2      
-35,309    km2   <    2010's average.
 157,464    k   >   2017
-483,441    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    79    k   
Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain
Central Seas__    36    k   gain
Other Seas___    23    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    13    k   gain
Chukchi______    16    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain
Area gain of 79k is above average by 27k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 483k, and just 35k less than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2 celsius drops to zero or -ve over the next week. A series of warm pulses continue to give high +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front.    -ve anomalies in the Bering sea. High +ve anomalies in central Canada until cold returns from the West early next week. So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2366 on: December 21, 2018, 04:44:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 20th, 2018:
     11,611,576 km2, an increase of 15,587 km2.
     2018 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2367 on: December 21, 2018, 05:41:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,611,576 km2(December 20, 2018)

Maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December. Or maybe they will not. (Univ Bremen did produce corrected data for the Greenland Sea). If they don't, I will smooth the graph as this obvious duff data on the graph is irritating.

- Extent gain 16k, 18k  below average  (2008-2017). (Average daily gain now down to about
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 240 k (3.2%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 74.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.09 million km2 (210k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.88 million km2, (0k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) approaching 3/4ths of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 81 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2. celsius declines to zero by next Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea, and cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

AmbiValent

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2368 on: December 21, 2018, 11:21:57 AM »
I thought, when this happened before, it was solved with the corrected data in a solid line in the main graph, but a dotted line remained showing the originally given data.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2369 on: December 21, 2018, 12:24:09 PM »
I thought, when this happened before, it was solved with the corrected data in a solid line in the main graph, but a dotted line remained showing the originally given data.

If it were that way, 'twas not by me.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2370 on: December 22, 2018, 04:48:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 21st, 2018:
     11,660,028 km2, an increase of 48,452 km2.
     2018 is now the 4rd lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2371 on: December 22, 2018, 09:28:44 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,660,028 km2(December 21, 2018)

Maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December. Or maybe they will not. So I've sent an e-mail to the NIPR. Will they answer? (Univ Bremen did produce corrected data for the Greenland Sea). If they don't answer or correct the data, I will smooth the graph as this obvious duff data on the graph is irritating.

- Extent gain 48k, 2k above average (2008-2017) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 238 k (3.2%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 74.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.09 million km2 (210k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.89 million km2, (10k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 80 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +1.4 celsius declines to between 1 and zero by Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and =ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2372 on: December 22, 2018, 02:33:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,660,391 km2

Yesterday, by the time the NSIDC update appeared I had a solstice drink in my hand so that was the end of that.

Total Area         
 10,660,391    km2      
 7,087    km2   >    2010's average.
 159,141    k   >   2017
-457,653    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    82    k   
Peripheral Seas    29    k   gain
Central Seas__    29    k   gain
Other Seas___    24    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    13    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    23    k   gain
Area gain of 82k is above average by 27k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 457k, and just 7k more than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +1.4 celsius declines to between 1 and zero by Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and -ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.

So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2018, 02:55:17 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2373 on: December 22, 2018, 03:05:02 PM »
A real contrast between the Pacific Gateway and the Atlantic Front.

Pacific Gateway
The Bering Sea is icing up quickly. This looks like continuing for a few days but then may well stall. As far as air temperature is concerned, the sea is in 2 halves - warm and cold. The image attached shows how it looks for most of the time for the rest of the month.

The Okhotsk is icing up slowly. Although below freezing, it is less cold than usual, and that looks likely to persist.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2374 on: December 22, 2018, 03:13:15 PM »
In contrast to the Pacific Gateway, the Atlantic Front looks as if much of the time relatively warm and windy weather will come from the south. This should keep the rate of freezing down to below average.

The Greenland Sea will also be affected by ice export down the Fram Strait.
The Kara, being on the Russian shore, could also easily buck the trend to slow freeze.



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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2375 on: December 23, 2018, 04:53:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 22nd, 2018:
     11,752,393 km2, an increase of 92,365 km2.
     2018 is the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2376 on: December 23, 2018, 01:11:44 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,752,393 km2(December 22, 2018)

I have smoothed the graph as this obvious duff data on the graph is irritating.

- Extent gain 92k, 48k above average (2008-2017) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 190 k (2.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 75.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.14 million km2 (260k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.98 million km2, (100k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 80 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 1 and zero for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and =ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2377 on: December 23, 2018, 02:31:13 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,755,053 km2

Total Area         
 10,755,053    km2      
 47,006    km2   >    2010's average.
 194,672    k   >   2017
-424,990    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    95    k   
Peripheral Seas    28    k   gain
Central Seas__    35    k   gain
Other Seas___    32    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    30    k   gain
Area gain of 95 k is above average by 40k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 425k, and 47k more than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 1 and zero for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and =ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.

So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2378 on: December 24, 2018, 05:10:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 23rd, 2018:
     11,778,497 km2, an increase of 26,104 km2.
     2018 is the 4th lowest on record.


Have an excellent day tomorrow! I will be on holiday, so I will not post.  :)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2379 on: December 24, 2018, 07:07:13 AM »
Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2380 on: December 24, 2018, 07:51:32 AM »
Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

+1  :)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2381 on: December 24, 2018, 08:39:37 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,778,497 km2(December 23, 2018)

- Extent gain 26k, 20k below average (2008-2017) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 210 k (2.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 75.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.12 million km2 (240k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.97 million km2, (90k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 80 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 0.5 and 1.5 for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and -ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold has returned to Canada.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2382 on: December 24, 2018, 04:15:37 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,826,269 km2

Total Area         
 10,826,269    km2      
 71,330    km2   >    2010's average.
 228,014    k   >   2017
-409,970    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    71    k   
Peripheral Seas    33    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    27    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    28    k   gain
Area gain of 71 k is above average by 24k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 410k, and 71k more than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 0.5 and 1.5 for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and -ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold has returned to Canada.

So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
[/quote]
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 04:23:12 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2383 on: December 25, 2018, 09:19:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 24rd, 2018:
     11,787,051 km2, an increase of 8,554 km2.
     2018 is the 3th lowest on record (if I am not mistaken).

Merry Christmas to those celebrating/observing.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2384 on: December 25, 2018, 09:46:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,787,051 km2(December 24, 2018)

Have yourselves a merry little Xmas....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2385 on: December 25, 2018, 03:07:01 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 24rd, 2018:
     11,787,051 km2, an increase of 8,554 km2.
     2018 is the 3th lowest on record (if I am not mistaken).

Merry Christmas to those celebrating/observing.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2386 on: December 26, 2018, 04:58:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 25th, 2018:
     11,811,598 km2, an increase of 24,547 km2.
     2018 is the 4th lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2387 on: December 26, 2018, 09:27:32 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,811,598 km2(December 25, 2018)

- Extent gain 25k, 32k below average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 280 k (3.7%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 76.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.05 million km2 (170k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.89 million km2, (10k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 76 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +1.5 for the next week or so.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2388 on: December 26, 2018, 09:38:00 AM »
JAXA SIE data for December 16 and 17 has been revised.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2389 on: December 26, 2018, 10:33:26 AM »
JAXA SIE data for December 16 and 17 has been revised.
Aha!
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2390 on: December 26, 2018, 02:57:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,875,463 km2

Total Area         
 10,875,463    km2      
 45,679    km2   >    2010's average.
 269,663    k   >   2017
-475,547    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    19    k   
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__   -23    k   loss
Other Seas___    28    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain
Area gain of 19 k is below average by 20k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 476k, and 46k more than the 2010's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to well below for the 2nd day, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas. This is obviously temporary.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +11.5 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2391 on: December 27, 2018, 08:17:45 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,843,435 km2(December 26, 2018)

- Extent gain 32k, 20k below average (last 10 years) for the day,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 300 k (3.9%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 77.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.03 million km2 (150k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.86 million km2, (20k < 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 76 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +2.5 for the next week or so.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2392 on: December 27, 2018, 03:37:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,884,789 km2

Total Area         
 10,884,789    km2      
 19,354    km2   >    2010's average.
 257,032    k   >   2017
-466,222    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    9    k   
Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain
Central Seas__   -21    k   loss
Other Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    14    k   gain
Area gain of 9 k is below average by 26k on this day.
Area
-257k greater than 2017,
- 19k greater than the 2010's average,
- 466k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to well below for the 2nd day, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas. This is due to very high +ve temperature anomalies in the area that may persist for a few days.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +2.5 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2393 on: December 28, 2018, 08:40:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,846,140 km2(December 27, 2018)

- Extent gain 3k, 50k below average (last 10 years) for the day,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 350 k (4.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 77.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.98 million km2 (100k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.81 million km2, (70k < 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day greatly below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 74 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1.5 and +3 for the next week or so.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Phil42

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2394 on: December 28, 2018, 11:21:55 AM »
Juan's Table for Dec 27th. Once again the last 3 years are the lowest 3.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2395 on: December 28, 2018, 02:10:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,884,652 km2

I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2
Total Area         
 10,884,652    km2      
-15,932    km2   <    2010's average.
 219,598    k   >   2017
-516,244    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -0    k   
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__   -23    k   loss
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain
Area gain of 0 k is below average by 35k on this day.
Area is:
- 220k greater than 2017,
- 16k less than the 2010's average,
- 516k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to zero in the last 3 days, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1.5 and +3 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Cid_Yama

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2396 on: December 28, 2018, 04:09:33 PM »
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

Pmt111500

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2397 on: December 28, 2018, 07:30:46 PM »
I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2
First! Time to open the 2019 melting thread! :P ::) ;)
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2398 on: December 28, 2018, 09:56:52 PM »
I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2
First! Time to open the 2019 melting thread! :P ::) ;)

The Kara and Laptev sea would seem to agree with you. Just when I thought those seas were finished..
Barents also resisting melting.

Greenland Sea - export down the Fram?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Wherestheice

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2399 on: December 29, 2018, 06:58:22 AM »
Arctic sea ice extent is now 2nd lowest on record. December 28th, a gain of 25,805 Km2.

2018 is only 108,505 Km2 above 2017 for record lowest.

I see a new record low happening in the next few weeks!
"When the ice goes..... F***