2018 sea ice area and extent data

[Klondike Kat]

Another reason to query the JAXA data..

NSIDC Daily extent 5th lowest,
JAXA Daily extent 10th lowest.

A difference of 1 or 2 positions in the table is not unusual, but 5?

It appears to be all a result of the huge spike recently in the JAXA data, and the fact that the numbers are clustered rather closely . Add about 200k to the NSIDC measurements and the positions will match.  I would question why the spike occurred in one and not the other.

[Stephan]

I think we all should wait a couple of days until the measurements are (then hopefully) settled again.

[Juan C. García]

Remember that the ADS/NIPR extent figures are two-day averages. The spike occurred on the 16th,  affecting the 15-16 and 16-17 (reported as 16 and 17 th december data) equally. On the 18th the situation will return to normal (hopefully).

My no-average extent calculation from Jaxa SIC jumped a +1010k on the 16th.

I believe that Wipneus is right in his comment, so hopefully, we just have to wait six hours to see a drop on the next ADS NIPR value.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 18^th, 2018:
     11,564,084 km², a drop of -256,774 km².
     [Correction of malfunction on Dec 16^th. Back to correct values.]
     2018 is now the 4^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,564,084 km2（December 18, 2018）

Hopefully order has been restored, and maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December.

- Extent gain over the last three days well below average  (2008-2017),
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 214 k (2.9%) ABOVE the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 73.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.12 million km2 (240k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 143.91 million km2, (30k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day well below average. On average (last 10 years) approaching 3/4ths of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 83 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2. celsius declines to zero by the weekend and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea, and cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

No data for 18 Dec from NSIDC yet. Are both JAXA and NSIDC satellites in need of some maintenance ?

The data has arrived. How dare NSIDC be 1 or 2 hours late !

Analysis under way - wait small (South Pacific Pidgin).

[Klondike Kat]

Yes, the pendulum has swung back and order is restored. 

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18 December (5 day trailing average) =  10,430,291 km2

Total Area           10,430,291    km2       -61,857    km2   <    2010's average.  145,901    k   >   2017 -493,776    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    70    k    Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain Central Seas__    38    k   gain Other Seas___    17    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    12    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______    0    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________    8    k   gain Laptev_______    11    k   gain Chukchi______    19    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    10    k   gain St Lawrence___    3    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Area gain above average (by 20k).
Area less than the 2000's average by 494k, and just 62k below the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2 celsius drops to zero or -ve over the next week. A series of warm pulses continue to give high +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front.    -ve anomalies in the Bering sea. High +ve anomalies in central Canada until cold returns from the West. So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 19^th, 2018:
     11,595,989 km², an increase of 31,905 km².
     2018 is now the 3^rd lowest on record.

[El Cid]

Maybe you should take the "bump" out of this year's graph in the past few days, as those data points are clearly false (and not just for this year vbut also for comparisons for the next years).

[Viggy]

Maybe you should take the "bump" out of this year's graph in the past few days, as those data points are clearly false (and not just for this year vbut also for comparisons for the next years).

As the data is refuted, corrrected or confirmed, the graphs will be amended accordingly. Data points being ‘clearly false’ has no scientific bearing unless you can explain why it’s so clear ... and while we know it is likely incorrect, the scientific method still requires an explanation for the change.

The alternative, to ‘take the bump out’, would require the fabrication of data points ...

[bbr2314]

Maybe you should take the "bump" out of this year's graph in the past few days, as those data points are clearly false (and not just for this year vbut also for comparisons for the next years).

As the data is refuted, corrrected or confirmed, the graphs will be amended accordingly. Data points being ‘clearly false’ has no scientific bearing unless you can explain why it’s so clear ... and while we know it is likely incorrect, the scientific method still requires an explanation for the change.

The alternative, to ‘take the bump out’, would require the fabrication of data points ...

This obsession with false data is deranged and I can't believe Neven has allowed it to dominate this thread for pages on end.

[Neven]

I thought that 257K increase was a lot of fun!

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,595,989 km2（December 19, 2018）

Maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December.

- Extent gain 32k, 7kl below average  (2008-2017),
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 221 k (3.0%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 73.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.11 million km2 (230k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.91 million km2, (30k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) approaching 3/4ths of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 83 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2. celsius declines to zero by next Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea, and cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[Nemesis]

@Neven

" I thought that 257K increase was a lot of fun!"

Me too  Soon these measurements will be quite obsolete anyway

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 December (5 day trailing average) =  10,509,044 km2

Total Area           10,509,044    km2       -35,309    km2   <    2010's average.  157,464    k   >   2017 -483,441    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    79    k    Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain Central Seas__    36    k   gain Other Seas___    23    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    14    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain Greenland____   -2    k   loss Barents ______    2    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss           Kara_________    7    k   gain Laptev_______    13    k   gain Chukchi______    16    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    6    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain

Area gain of 79k is above average by 27k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 483k, and just 35k less than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2 celsius drops to zero or -ve over the next week. A series of warm pulses continue to give high +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front.    -ve anomalies in the Bering sea. High +ve anomalies in central Canada until cold returns from the West early next week. So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 20^th, 2018:
     11,611,576 km², an increase of 15,587 km².
     2018 is now the 3^rd lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,611,576 km2（December 20, 2018）

Maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December. Or maybe they will not. (Univ Bremen did produce corrected data for the Greenland Sea). If they don't, I will smooth the graph as this obvious duff data on the graph is irritating.

- Extent gain 16k, 18k  below average  (2008-2017). (Average daily gain now down to about
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 240 k (3.2%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 74.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.09 million km2 (210k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.88 million km2, (0k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) approaching 3/4ths of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 81 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +2. celsius declines to zero by next Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea, and cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[AmbiValent]

I thought, when this happened before, it was solved with the corrected data in a solid line in the main graph, but a dotted line remained showing the originally given data.

[gerontocrat]

I thought, when this happened before, it was solved with the corrected data in a solid line in the main graph, but a dotted line remained showing the originally given data.

If it were that way, 'twas not by me.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 21^st, 2018:
     11,660,028 km², an increase of 48,452 km².
     2018 is now the 4^rd lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,660,028 km2（December 21, 2018）

Maybe JAXA will issue corrected data for the 16th & 17th December. Or maybe they will not. So I've sent an e-mail to the NIPR. Will they answer? (Univ Bremen did produce corrected data for the Greenland Sea). If they don't answer or correct the data, I will smooth the graph as this obvious duff data on the graph is irritating.

- Extent gain 48k, 2k above average (2008-2017) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 238 k (3.2%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 74.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.09 million km2 (210k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.89 million km2, (10k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 80 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +1.4 celsius declines to between 1 and zero by Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and =ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,660,391 km2

Yesterday, by the time the NSIDC update appeared I had a solstice drink in my hand so that was the end of that.

Total Area           10,660,391    km2        7,087    km2   >    2010's average.  159,141    k   >   2017 -457,653    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    82    k    Peripheral Seas    29    k   gain Central Seas__    29    k   gain Other Seas___    24    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    13    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain Greenland____    3    k   gain Barents ______    2    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________    9    k   gain Laptev_______    6    k   gain Chukchi______    7    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    23    k   gain

Area gain of 82k is above average by 27k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 457k, and just 7k more than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly of +1.4 celsius declines to between 1 and zero by Monday and then stays there. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and -ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.

So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[gerontocrat]

A real contrast between the Pacific Gateway and the Atlantic Front.

Pacific Gateway
The Bering Sea is icing up quickly. This looks like continuing for a few days but then may well stall. As far as air temperature is concerned, the sea is in 2 halves - warm and cold. The image attached shows how it looks for most of the time for the rest of the month.

The Okhotsk is icing up slowly. Although below freezing, it is less cold than usual, and that looks likely to persist.

[gerontocrat]

In contrast to the Pacific Gateway, the Atlantic Front looks as if much of the time relatively warm and windy weather will come from the south. This should keep the rate of freezing down to below average.

The Greenland Sea will also be affected by ice export down the Fram Strait.
The Kara, being on the Russian shore, could also easily buck the trend to slow freeze.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 22^nd, 2018:
     11,752,393 km², an increase of 92,365 km².
     2018 is the 4^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,752,393 km2（December 22, 2018）

I have smoothed the graph as this obvious duff data on the graph is irritating.

- Extent gain 92k, 48k above average (2008-2017) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 190 k (2.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 75.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.14 million km2 (260k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.98 million km2, (100k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 80 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 1 and zero for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and =ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,755,053 km2

Total Area           10,755,053    km2        47,006    km2   >    2010's average.  194,672    k   >   2017 -424,990    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    95    k    Peripheral Seas    28    k   gain Central Seas__    35    k   gain Other Seas___    32    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    14    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____    2    k   gain Barents ______    0    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    5    k   gain CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    11    k   gain Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    4    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    30    k   gain

Area gain of 95 k is above average by 40k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 425k, and 47k more than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 1 and zero for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and =ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold returns to Canada by the end of the weekend.

So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 23^rd, 2018:
     11,778,497 km², an increase of 26,104 km².
     2018 is the 4^th lowest on record.


Have an excellent day tomorrow! I will be on holiday, so I will not post. 

[oren]

Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

[Neven]

Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

+1 

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,778,497 km2（December 23, 2018）

- Extent gain 26k, 20k below average (2008-2017) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 210 k (2.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 75.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.12 million km2 (240k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.97 million km2, (90k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 80 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 0.5 and 1.5 for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and -ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold has returned to Canada.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,826,269 km2

Total Area           10,826,269    km2        71,330    km2   >    2010's average.  228,014    k   >   2017 -409,970    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    71    k    Peripheral Seas    33    k   gain Central Seas__    11    k   gain Other Seas___    27    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    14    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    1    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    4    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________    1    k   gain Laptev_______   -7    k   loss Chukchi______    2    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___    28    k   gain

Area gain of 71 k is above average by 24k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 410k, and 71k more than the 2010's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between 0.5 and 1.5 for the next week or so. The strong +ve anomalies on the Atlantic Front persist intermittently as pulses  of warm air continue. Continuing -ve anomalies in the Bering sea and -ve in the Okhotsk - the opposite to last year. Cold has returned to Canada.

So while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.
[/quote]

[oren]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 24rd, 2018:
     11,787,051 km2, an increase of 8,554 km2.
     2018 is the 3th lowest on record (if I am not mistaken).

Merry Christmas to those celebrating/observing.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,787,051 km2（December 24, 2018）

Have yourselves a merry little Xmas....

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 24rd, 2018:
     11,787,051 km2, an increase of 8,554 km2.
     2018 is the 3th lowest on record (if I am not mistaken).

Merry Christmas to those celebrating/observing.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 25^th, 2018:
     11,811,598 km², an increase of 24,547 km².
     2018 is the 4^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,811,598 km2（December 25, 2018）

- Extent gain 25k, 32k below average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record, see Juan's post above for details (and attached table).
- Freezing to date from minimum is 280 k (3.7%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 76.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.05 million km2 (170k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.89 million km2, (10k > 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 76 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +1.5 for the next week or so.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[Neven]

JAXA SIE data for December 16 and 17 has been revised.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA SIE data for December 16 and 17 has been revised.

Aha!

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,875,463 km2

Total Area           10,875,463    km2        45,679    km2   >    2010's average.  269,663    k   >   2017 -475,547    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    19    k    Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain Central Seas__   -23    k   loss Other Seas___    28    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    9    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________   -16    k   loss Laptev_______   -11    k   loss Chukchi______   -4    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    9    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Area gain of 19 k is below average by 20k on this day.
Area less than the 2000's average by 476k, and 46k more than the 2010's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to well below for the 2nd day, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas. This is obviously temporary.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +11.5 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,843,435 km2（December 26, 2018)

- Extent gain 32k, 20k below average (last 10 years) for the day,
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 300 k (3.9%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 77.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.03 million km2 (150k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.86 million km2, (20k < 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 76 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +2.5 for the next week or so.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,884,789 km2

Total Area           10,884,789    km2        19,354    km2   >    2010's average.  257,032    k   >   2017 -466,222    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain    9    k    Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain Central Seas__   -21    k   loss Other Seas___    20    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    8    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss Greenland____    6    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    4    k   gain           Kara_________   -12    k   loss Laptev_______   -8    k   loss Chukchi______   -4    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    7    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    14    k   gain

Area gain of 9 k is below average by 26k on this day.
Area
-257k greater than 2017,
- 19k greater than the 2010's average,
- 466k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to well below for the 2nd day, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas. This is due to very high +ve temperature anomalies in the area that may persist for a few days.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1 and +2.5 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,846,140 km2（December 27, 2018）

- Extent gain 3k, 50k below average (last 10 years) for the day,
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 350 k (4.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 77.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.98 million km2 (100k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.81 million km2, (70k < 2017).

Extent gain from minimum on this day greatly below average. On average (last 10 years) three quarters of extent gain from min to max is now done with on average 74 days to maximum.

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1.5 and +3 for the next week or so.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
[/quote]

[Phil42]

Juan's Table for Dec 27^th. Once again the last 3 years are the lowest 3.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,884,652 km2

I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2

Total Area           10,884,652    km2       -15,932    km2   <    2010's average.  219,598    k   >   2017 -516,244    k   <    2000's average.           Total Gain   -0    k    Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain Central Seas__   -23    k   loss Other Seas___    17    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    6    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    5    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    7    k   gain           Kara_________   -15    k   loss Laptev_______   -6    k   loss Chukchi______   -1    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    7    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain

Area gain of 0 k is below average by 35k on this day.
Area is:
- 220k greater than 2017,
- 16k less than the 2010's average,
- 516k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to zero in the last 3 days, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1.5 and +3 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

[Cid_Yama]

Bremen showing 2018 tied with 2016 for lowest.

  https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

[Pmt111500]

I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2

First! Time to open the 2019 melting thread!

[gerontocrat]

I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2

First! Time to open the 2019 melting thread!

The Kara and Laptev sea would seem to agree with you. Just when I thought those seas were finished..
Barents also resisting melting.

Greenland Sea - export down the Fram?

[Wherestheice]

Arctic sea ice extent is now 2nd lowest on record. December 28th, a gain of 25,805 Km2.

2018 is only 108,505 Km2 above 2017 for record lowest.

I see a new record low happening in the next few weeks!