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Daniel B.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #650 on: December 15, 2017, 05:53:27 PM »
... Extent still 2nd just - see image to see how predicting outcome even to Dec 31 looks like a mugs game...
Yah:  somewhere between (or including) 1st and 10th place on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1, I'd say.  Poll anyone?

Third looks like the lowest it could reasonably attain (after 2016 and 2010).  The growth is starting to pile on, so 15th is not out of reach, as the difference between 3rd and 15th is less than 1st and 3rd.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #651 on: December 20, 2017, 01:35:33 PM »
JAXA DATA as at 19 Dec 2017

Extent is 3rd -

On average extent gain is now 74 % done.

Table has additional data re previous years.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #652 on: December 22, 2017, 08:00:50 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 21 DECEMBER

Could not resist showing the data as at the winter solstice,
Extent gain from minimum on average 75% complete.
A loss of 12k km2 in extent yesterday plus expected continuation of high temp anomalies adds to possibility of low extent gain for rest of December.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #653 on: December 27, 2017, 12:10:46 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 26 DEC

Windows 10 decided to update - screenshot and paint are much worse. Thankyou Mr Gates.
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Nikita

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #654 on: December 27, 2017, 12:44:46 PM »
Where can I find data on the average extent for 2007, 2008, 2009...2016 years?

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #655 on: December 27, 2017, 02:39:09 PM »
Where can I find data on the average extent for 2007, 2008, 2009...2016 years?

Do  you mean average data for each month? Or the overall annual average?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #656 on: December 27, 2017, 03:31:18 PM »
Where can I find data on the average extent for 2007, 2008, 2009...2016 years?
Both NSIDC and JAXA have daily datasets and other stuff you can download from their websites and dump into, e.g. Excel. Happy hunting
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #657 on: December 27, 2017, 04:05:44 PM »

Do  you mean average data for each month? Or the overall annual average?

For each month better. Then I will calculate overall annual average.

Hyperion

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #658 on: December 27, 2017, 11:15:05 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 26 DEC

Windows 10 decided to update - screenshot and paint are much worse. Thankyou Mr Gates.

So at this time last year extent was growing at over 150,000 per day but this year down near 25,000. Interesting temperature and humidity readings in the stratosphere.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #659 on: December 28, 2017, 12:05:12 AM »
Where can I find data on the average extent for 2007, 2008, 2009...2016 years?

NSIDC:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

ADS (also known as NIPR, JAXA, IJIS, etc.):
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
(Look at "Download to sea ice extent data")
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #660 on: December 28, 2017, 12:47:31 PM »
"Be surprised, be very surprised".
"Well,  I never did".   and other scientific observations on the image below.

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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #661 on: December 29, 2017, 06:38:59 AM »
"Be surprised, be very surprised".
"Well,  I never did".   and other scientific observations on the image below.
Oo, what a thriller!
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #662 on: December 29, 2017, 01:40:45 PM »
NSIDC extent. Interesting...


Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #663 on: December 29, 2017, 01:46:48 PM »
Of course this is no surprise it's just that the winter dark has lasted long enough to stop the outpour of cold in the atlantic. Goes via air to east NAmerica now. NAtlantic drift is again bringing warmth here to the NEurope. We need soon to learn to talk of the Dark Queen of Winter since the White Queen has died.
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oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #664 on: December 29, 2017, 06:42:54 PM »
Here's a little chart I made focusing on the Chukchi Sea, "ground zero" of late refreeze and early melt in recent years. The fully ice-covered season, at 800-830k SqKM (the inverse of the 0-800 line) is shortening while the partial ice cover season is lengthening. A new "ice-free" season has appeared and is lengthening as well. I expect other parts of the Arctic to follow a similar path on the transition to seasonally ice-free.
Note: as the year is not over, the chart uses 362 days of each year, dropping the last 3 days as well as Feb 29.

aperson

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #665 on: December 29, 2017, 07:36:01 PM »
I'm actually pretty surprised we managed to slip underneath 2016 in extent here. While it's been an anomalously warm freezing season, 2016 was a fair bit warmer. It seems like the difference would have to be made up by an increase in ocean heat content.
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oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #666 on: December 29, 2017, 09:54:00 PM »
I'm actually pretty surprised we managed to slip underneath 2016 in extent here. While it's been an anomalously warm freezing season, 2016 was a fair bit warmer. It seems like the difference would have to be made up by an increase in ocean heat content.
Anomalous warmth and low extent don't necessarily go hand in hand. Extent differences at this time of year are at the periphery, while the warmth often mentioned hereabouts is in the inner arctic basin which currently has full ice extent (except the Chukchi which I chose to chart above). So I think some of the difference could show up in ice volume (and indeed end-2016 saw record low volume if I'm not mistaken).

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #667 on: December 30, 2017, 02:16:11 PM »
Yet another (nearly) flat day in NSIDC extent growth:

Click for larger image:

Alexander555

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #668 on: December 30, 2017, 02:45:54 PM »
Is there any kind of data that you normaly use to predict this years melting season ?

Alexander555

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #669 on: December 30, 2017, 02:47:15 PM »
(next years melting season)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #670 on: December 30, 2017, 04:20:26 PM »
Is there any kind of data that you normaly use to predict this years melting season ?

The person who comes up with a reliable method to predict even one month ahead to a reasonable degree of accuracy will win the Nobel Prize for Everything.

There is not enough data about the ice and the oceans.
The weather is too unpredictable.

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased, is increasing and will increase until emissions are much lower than today.
On the one hand renewable energy is increasing and eventually use of fossil fuels will decrease.
On the other hand environmental degradation on land and sea is reducing the effectiveness of carbon sinks.
Methane release from permafrost and buried beneath shallow Arctic seas is the elephant in the room.
Heat retention increases, and will increase for a good number of years. - especially (93%) in the oceans.

For n years, where n is the great unknown, ice extent and volume must decrease and the ice sheets must lose mass.
Individual years can and have bucked the trend, but not reversed it.
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El Cid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #671 on: December 30, 2017, 04:41:36 PM »
Absolutely right gerontocrat! It seems obvious that we will lose summer sea ice, but NOBODY has a clue when it will happen. And even when that happens one summer, the next summer could be a recovery year with some ice cover over the Arctic.
It is also likely, that renewables will win in the end and Co2 emissions will slowely be reduced. However I believe that land based carbon sinks have huge potential, much bigger than now commonly assumed.

Anyway, you are right that the next 10-20-30 years are more or less carved in stone now: the Earth will keep warming up and at one point we will lose the ice but this being a non-linear system, forecasts are more like educated guesses, nothing more.

romett1

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #672 on: December 31, 2017, 09:50:58 AM »
Haven't commented here for a while, but those JAXA numbers this morning - we are now 280,000 km² below 2016 level. And looking at GFS Jan 4 - Jan 10 is showing heat over both Pacific and Atlantic side.

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #673 on: December 31, 2017, 10:00:35 AM »
Wow, the year will end below 12 million km2 for the first time on record:
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #674 on: December 31, 2017, 02:41:39 PM »
JAXA DATA as at 30 December

"Good heavens to Murgatroyd". ( I wonder where that expression came from? )

Extent gain on average 80% complete.

Extent now 274k km2 less than 2016 , = to about 6 days average extent gain at this time of year.

Using history as a guide (*!?) difficult to see the maximum not being a record low. (But most of us were totally bamboozled by the 2017 melting season).
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #675 on: December 31, 2017, 06:55:05 PM »
Murgatroyd is an English surname. Its etymology, according to one source, is as follows: in 1371, a constable was appointed for the district of Warley in Yorkshire. He adopted the name of Johanus de Morgateroyde, or literally: Johanus of Moor Gate Royde or the district leading to the moor. Another source says the place name means Margaret's road. In Norse, the Royd meant "Clearing" (as in a forest) Although Moorgate in London was a gate with the road to the moor passing through, in Yorkshire, Gate (again from Norse) means street, so Moor Gate Royd would be "A clearing in the forest on the road to the moor".

The name is also used in the favorite catchphrase of the Hanna-Barbera cartoon character Snagglepuss – "Heavens to Murgatroyd!", a line first spoken by Bert Lahr in the 1944 film Meet the People, whom Snagglepuss' voice is largely based on.

The name may refer to the following people:

Cecil G. Murgatroyd (1958–2001), long-running satirical political candidate in Australia and New Zealand
Gavin Murgatroyd (born 1969), Namibian cricketer (previously known as Bryan Murgatroyd)
Henry Murgatroyd (1853–1905), English cricketer
Peta Murgatroyd (born 1986), professional dancer
Stephen Murgatroyd (born 1950), writer, broadcaster and consultant.


And now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #676 on: December 31, 2017, 07:02:58 PM »
If this weather pattern continues, the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Arctic will be in a world of hurt during the approaching melt season.

For those here who like to constantly post comments, suggesting things aren't as bad as they would appear to be, I would like you to take a close look at extent at the end of 2017 and wish you a...

...HAPPY NEW YEAR!

jdallen

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #677 on: December 31, 2017, 09:08:33 PM »
Wow, the year will end below 12 million km2 for the first time on record:
And that, is now Exhibit "A" for why I didn't vote on the max extent poll.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #678 on: January 01, 2018, 12:18:56 AM »
Another graph....

For the first time in the satellite record, it is unlikely #Arctic sea ice extent will break 12 million km^2 before the start of the new year.

2016 was the previous record low for the date. [JAXA data at: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/ ]

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Hyperion

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #679 on: January 01, 2018, 01:09:14 AM »
What is most startling to me is not so much the new record, but that December extent growth is so much lower that prior years. At around 1.5million, only a little over half what occurred in the shock warm December of 2016. If this the beginning of a new trend, maybe driven by a threshold being crossed in the surface mixing depth and areas (volume?) of the coastal basin seas...
 Surely its year-round blue way before anyone who gives a rats ' about "scientific reputation" is prepared to publicly admit.
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El Cid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #680 on: January 01, 2018, 10:25:56 AM »
A-team quoted a study a while ago which explained current events quite well: with more open water, there is more vapour, which leads to more clouds, which leads to slower ice extent/volume losses during summer (by reflecting sunlight) but at the same time slower gains during winter (by keeping the warmth in). This is exactly what we have seen in 2017: slower losses during summer than expected by most, and an amazing slowdown of gains during winter. We will see whether the same pattern holds in 2018, although the arctic will likely rather fool us all :)

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #681 on: January 01, 2018, 12:40:48 PM »
Have the Trumpistan officials already stopped monitoring the currents in Bering Straits? I remember seeing a site somewhere but am unable now to find it. Anyway, it's too late to save the Arctic Sea Ice anymore as the A-I-C got elected, but it could be useful to know when to expect the next change in the climate system.
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bbr2314

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #682 on: January 01, 2018, 02:15:24 PM »
It should also be considered that the record New Years low comes in spite of very good coverage across Hudson Bay. The Maritimes are lacking slightly, but Hudson Bay's refreeze happened early and vigorously this year relative to recent normals. The quick gains in the low-latitudes are now being countered by the heat at depth that is increasingly predominating across the peripheral seas.

It is important to distinguish the impacts resulting from having lots of relatively low-latitude ice, and a dearth of high-latitude ice, vs. other sides of the coin. Because at the moment North America is absolutely in the freezer, and NYC may see its coldest two-week period since 1977 (or before). Obviously Asia/Europe are mostly warm, but if Hudson Bay & the Maritimes/Sea of Okhotsk continue their seeming increase in freezing momentum into the future (especially relative to the rest of the Arctic), the downstream impacts promise to be substantially more vigorous than if melting had been uniform. In fact, it would seem to be a probable driving cause behind worsening Arctic Amplification (if the "cyrosphere" has a gaping hole in the middle + a periphery that is increasingly separated at some part of the year, then it isn't a unified cryosphere, and you end up with roaming Sandy-esque lows in places they formerly did not exist).

bbr2314

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #683 on: January 01, 2018, 02:30:39 PM »
On the above note, it is not often numbers like this appear off the NE seaboard. I believe the last time we had substantive sea ice form was in February of 2015, and before that, probably January of 1994, and a few times in the 80s/70s. But for a good twenty years, it was almost entirely absent.

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html

Again, this seems highly suspect to be related to what has happened in the Chuchki/Barentz, as well as the early freeze of Hudson Bay and the changes in the North Atlantic. In fact, while the shoreline is now freezing, the pool of warm water off the seaboard has only worsened on an annual basis since the El Nino of 2009-10 (perhaps this was when Greenland passed a tipping point in terms of precip + mass loss impacting oceanic circulation?).

In any case, by 1/10, it seems likely that much of the Northeast seaboard will be entirely iced in, possibly even outranking February of 2015. The Hudson in NYC may even be walkable from Jersey to Manhattan, and I am unaware of the last time that occurred, maybe 1977? If not then, probably 1917-18 or February of 1933.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #684 on: January 01, 2018, 05:27:53 PM »
. Because at the moment North America is absolutely in the freezer, and NYC may see its coldest two-week period since 1977 (or before).

Last January was just the opposite:North America very warm, while Europe getting the coldest January since 1987! This year Europe is very warm, likely the warmest since the springlike winter of 2007, and the USA is freezing.
I wonder if these extremes are the sign of an imminent regime shift in midlatitude winter weather due to Arctic changes: nonlinear systems often have huge oscillations before settling into a new mode

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #685 on: January 01, 2018, 06:04:28 PM »

I wonder if these extremes are the sign of an imminent regime shift in midlatitude winter weather due to Arctic changes: nonlinear systems often have huge oscillations before settling into a new mode

The official position is we cannot state what the weather is in three days so any attempts to use predictive proxies are banned. This however, does not apply in all countries.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #686 on: January 01, 2018, 06:10:38 PM »
The fundamental oscillation is that of the polar front.  Since there are 4-6 waves along the front, if it is cold on the US east coast (trough), there will tend to be a ridge over Europe and the US west coast.  Warming oceans tend to lock the waves along the polar front in place.

bbr2314

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #687 on: January 01, 2018, 06:13:06 PM »
The fundamental oscillation is that of the polar front.  Since there are 4-6 waves along the front, if it is cold on the US east coast (trough), there will tend to be a ridge over Europe and the US west coast.  Warming oceans tend to lock the waves along the polar front in place.
Indeed. Perhaps this is a reflection of oscillating or varying ice cover in Bering/Chuckchi vs. Kara/Barentz?

I.E., (versus normal), negative anomalies in both seas favor negative anomalies in both continents, negative in one vs. normal in the other = another variation, etc?

Of course, ^ are subject to changes, but it would make sense that gaping areas of ice-free waters in the peripheral seas are the perfect heat reservoirs to encourage stability/standing wave patterns in the mid-latitudes.

bbr2314

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #688 on: January 01, 2018, 06:21:43 PM »
. Because at the moment North America is absolutely in the freezer, and NYC may see its coldest two-week period since 1977 (or before).

Last January was just the opposite:North America very warm, while Europe getting the coldest January since 1987! This year Europe is very warm, likely the warmest since the springlike winter of 2007, and the USA is freezing.
I wonder if these extremes are the sign of an imminent regime shift in midlatitude winter weather due to Arctic changes: nonlinear systems often have huge oscillations before settling into a new mode

I think there was a state change sometime in the early 2000s that finalized in the 09-10 Nino. The question is how long it takes to get to Point B?

NYC's 15-yr median snowfall increased from 15" in 08-09 to 40.0" by 16-17. It is higher than at any point in history back to 1883-84.

Perhaps the two confounding factors that have been most responsible are 1) Greenland shifting to consistent and generally increasing annual net loss and 2) Worsening fall + wintertime ice anomalies in the CAB/Peripheral Seas which are allowing increasing predominance of standing wave patterns in the high and mid latitudes down below.

If this is the case, and both factors continue on their current trajectory, we should see snowfall continue to rise across the NE seaboard. The question is how quickly amounts jump when we get to Point B and whether that precludes re-glaciation (I know, I know, everyone yells at me about this, but the snowfall data over the past year has been surprising to say the least).

Perhaps the next big Nino will be sufficient to push us over the edge? Changes seemed to accelerate very dramatically after 09-10, maybe we are still in the afterglow of the 15-16 event.

Finally: the Ewing-Donn Theory was thoroughly rejected previously. But what if the breakdown of CAB/peripheral sea icepack in wintertime is sufficient to generate worsening standing wave patterns that propagate for longer and longer periods until parts of the NHEM do end up in perpetual winter, when combined with the cold freshwater flux from Greenland/mounting continental snow totals? The theory may not work when we consider an active pattern even resembling the mess we currently see today, however, the albedo feedbacks could be more prone to runaway craziness if atmospheric angular momentum decreases to the point where weather is "stuck" for many months on end.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #689 on: January 04, 2018, 03:33:19 PM »
JAXA website let's you see all the images up to 3 Jan but not the graphs or data after 31 Dec. Annoying. Patience is a virtue?
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #690 on: January 04, 2018, 03:41:08 PM »
JAXA website let's you see all the images up to 3 Jan but not the graphs or data after 31 Dec. Annoying. Patience is a virtue?

They probably wait until @Neven starts the "2018 sea ice area and extent data"-thread here.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #691 on: January 04, 2018, 04:02:09 PM »
I knew I was forgetting something...   :-[  ;D
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin