Greenland 2018 melt season

[Neven]

It's not the melt season yet, but it is 2018, so have at it.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 4 January 2018 from-

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Greenland surface mass gain still continues very much on the low side, and cci-reanalyzer again predicts low precipitation over the next few days.

The high precipitation of September and October is pretty well matched by very low precipitation in November and December that is continuing in January.

So I have even another week of data for "my theory that belongs to me", i.e. that the decline in precipitation that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence.

AbruptSLR on the ENSO thread tells us that data continues to suggest that the current weak La Nina may be on its way out. Will this test my little theory in the months to come ?

[gerontocrat]

Greenland stays very dry.

[gerontocrat]

So some days even in darkest January, there is a bit of warming in Greenland.
(Less than 1% so does not show on the graph on https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

[gerontocrat]

There has been precipitation mainly on the SE coast due to that big weather system twixt Greenland and Scandinavia pushing north. Note the tiny bit of melting on the extreme SE coast.

But cci-reanalyzer suggests this precipitation will move further north and fade away over the next few days.

[gerontocrat]

A second day with a little bit of melt on the SE Coast. All due to that whopping cyclone sending warmth into the far North Atlantic. (see Arctic Sea Ice - 2017-18 Freezing Season).

[gerontocrat]

Another week gone and not a lot happening.

A bit of precipitation in the week now fading away and the rest of January looks to be very quiet - little precipitation.

The absence of major precipitation events since October in this 2017-18 season is in stark contrast to 2016-2017. I wonder when will be the first day of measurable melting. Every day the sun moves a bit further north and a bit higher in the sky.

[Daniel B.]

Yes, this winter has moved almost exactly on top of the long-term average.  It just be interesting to see how the rest of the winter plays out.  Regarding the onset of melt, I think we have several months to go.  The waters are still getting colder, and the ice growing.

[gerontocrat]

Regarding the onset of melt, I think we have several months to go.  The waters are still getting colder, and the ice growing.

I think you may have misunderstood my post - I meant melting on the Greenland mainland... This happens occasionally even in January - it did yesterday, but not enough to register on the graph - unless you have a microscope handy.

See images below from https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

[Daniel B.]

No, I understood.  I was simply stating that significant melt will not occur until warmer waters offshore create consistently warmer air temperatures.  Some sun-enhanced melt will always occur - even in January.  However, most of this tends to refreeze.

[gerontocrat]

21 Jan saw a second day of melt on the far SW coast, looking stronger but still not sufficient for a mention on the graph. If it persists is significant?

[lifeblack]

The chart shows surface mass balance... Does it also include sublimation?  (ie, is it necessary to invoke melting to explain the red area?)

[gerontocrat]

The chart shows surface mass balance... Does it also include sublimation?  (ie, is it necessary to invoke melting to explain the red area?)

Yep, melting includes sublimation

[lifeblack]

The chart shows surface mass balance... Does it also include sublimation?  (ie, is it necessary to invoke melting to explain the red area?)

Yep, melting includes sublimation

Sublimation is distinctly different from melting... it shouldn't appear on the %surface melt graph, even though the SMB is negative.

[gerontocrat]

The chart shows surface mass balance... Does it also include sublimation?  (ie, is it necessary to invoke melting to explain the red area?)

Yep, melting includes sublimation

Sublimation is distinctly different from melting... it shouldn't appear on the %surface melt graph, even though the SMB is negative.

The objective of DMI is to show the "Current Surface Mass Budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet" by displaying additions in mass (precipitation) and reductions in mass (melting and sublimation).
So for the purpose of the website surely it is correct to include sublimation on the minus side (even though for other purposes sublimation would be separated from melting).

Precipitation remains below average, and looks to continue at a low level for a few days - maybe the line for the year will dip below the average? Also sublimation(?) continues for a third day.

[oren]

SMB includes sublimation, %surface melt does not.

[gerontocrat]

SMB includes sublimation, %surface melt does not.

Yep - lazy me did not read the notes to the images properly.

[gerontocrat]

Data from https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

January was average to below average precipitation, again in contrast to last year, and continuing the marked change that started in early November (La Nina influence? who knows). Indeed, the accumulated precipitation has threatened to dip below average.

Feb 1 has started the new month with a spike - perhaps associated with the development of a  possible extreme cyclone starting in Southern Greenland and then charging up into the Greenland Sea and beyond to over the North Pole from Sunday to Tuesday. (My observations suggest that often these cyclones in the Greenland and Norwegian seas do NOT result in much Greenland precipitation.)

Of note also is while Greenland precipitation (i.e. snow) is average or below average - the Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent is really, really high.

[gerontocrat]

Indeed, the accumulated precipitation has threatened to dip below average.

WHOOPS FORGOT TO ADD IMAGE

[FrostKing70]

Does anyone have access to prior years "Greenland Cumulative Melt Days" on Dec 31st of each year?   I am wondering what a time lapse of all the previous year end cumulative melt graphics would look like?   Would it show a pattern of increasing melt days, or a random pattern?

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_cumulative_melt.png

[Niall Dollard]

This paper by Tomas Mote covers the period from 1973 -2007 and has a chart of summer seasonal melt departure. It shows a pretty much steady increase from 1987 but especially so after 1996.

 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL031976/epdf

[Pmt111500]

I haven't really followed the melt season in Greenland after 2012, but maybe this year. Hope the Trumpistan Republicans haven't thrown this resource in a bin.

[gerontocrat]

I haven't really followed the melt season in Greenland after 2012, but maybe this year. Hope the Trumpistan Republicans haven't thrown this resource in a bin.

If Trumpistan kills it - there are always the Danes:-

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

That damn cyclone is doing a mischief to "my theory that belongs to me", (i.e. that the decline in precipitation that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence).

Precipitation has been up, and it rather looks like that after a couple of days weather systems marching up the Greenland Sea are going to dump a lot of white stuff for a good many days to come. But do not despair, Gerontocrat, it seems La Nina is going to be around for a good few months yet.

[Daniel B.]

It may just be a weather anomaly.  Over the long term, your theory that belongs to you may still prevail.

[gerontocrat]

It may just be a weather anomaly.  Over the long term, your theory that belongs to you may still prevail.

But not this month. See recent posts on the Freezing Season thread, and

be afraid, be very afraid

. And I thought February was supposed to be a quiet month.

https://watchers.news/2018/02/08/warnings-issued-as-sudden-stratospheric-warming-threatens-europe-with-big-freeze/

Warnings issued as Sudden Stratospheric Warming threatens Europe with big freeze

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

That damn cyclone didn't do much of a mischief to "my theory that belongs to me", (i.e. that the decline in precipitation that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence). Precipitation went up, and then went down, so precipitation to date is bumbling along at about average.

This is in marked contrast to Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent, which is way up. (graph below). The generally accepted hypothesis seems to be that as warmer temperatures increase the capacity of air to hold water, one should see more snow in winter. In Greenland, this held true last year (5th highest surface mass gain in the satellite records ?), but is not holding true so far this year since late October 2017 (DMI defines the year as 1 Sept to 31 Aug).

[Daniel B.]

The theory that one should see more snow in winter only holds for those areas that have an average temperature below zero.  In other areas, precipitation increases, but more falls as rain, cancelling out the higher snowfall potential.  In Greenland, I would expect more winter snowfall - all other things being equal.

[FishOutofWater]

I hate that oversimplified explanation because it implies things that are false.

The generally accepted hypothesis seems to be that as warmer temperatures increase the capacity of air to hold water, one should see more snow in winter.

Air doesn't "hold" water vapor. Water vapor is a completely miscible component of air. You can boil water vapor into air until your pot runs dry. The air doesn't care. Of course, your cool windows will quickly fog up.

The vapor pressure of water is a function of temperature. The ocean is the primary source of water vapor around Greenland and the ocean water has a huge heat capacity. Thus, ocean water temperatures buffer the air temperatures and sea surface temperatures are the controlling factor on the maximum vapor pressure of water. Obviously, wind speeds and mixing are important factors affecting the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere.

[Susan Anderson]

I hate that oversimplified explanation because it implies things that are false.

The generally accepted hypothesis seems to be that as warmer temperatures increase the capacity of air to hold water, one should see more snow in winter.

Air doesn't "hold" water vapor. Water vapor is a completely miscible component of air. You can boil water vapor into air until your pot runs dry. The air doesn't care. Of course, your cool windows will quickly fog up.

The vapor pressure of water is a function of temperature. The ocean is the primary source of water vapor around Greenland and the ocean water has a huge heat capacity. Thus, ocean water temperatures buffer the air temperatures and sea surface temperatures are the controlling factor on the maximum vapor pressure of water. Obviously, wind speeds and mixing are important factors affecting the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere.

I altered the "pink" to "brown" because it was almost illegible.

Thanks for continuing to put these concepts in plain English!

[gerontocrat]

I hate that oversimplified explanation because it implies things that are false.

The generally accepted hypothesis seems to be that as warmer temperatures increase the capacity of air to hold water, one should see more snow in winter.

Air doesn't "hold" water vapor. Water vapor is a completely miscible component of air. You can boil water vapor into air until your pot runs dry. The air doesn't care. Of course, your cool windows will quickly fog up.

The vapor pressure of water is a function of temperature. The ocean is the primary source of water vapor around Greenland and the ocean water has a huge heat capacity. Thus, ocean water temperatures buffer the air temperatures and sea surface temperatures are the controlling factor on the maximum vapor pressure of water. Obviously, wind speeds and mixing are important factors affecting the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere.

I altered the "pink" to "brown" because it was almost illegible.

Thanks for continuing to put these concepts in plain English!

Thanks for continuing to put these concepts in plain English!

Huh! he said, with a downward curl of the lip.

"Water vapor is a completely miscible component of air."  Miscible ? Huh!
"The vapor pressure of water"  vapor pressure Huh!

Explain that to the Joe Public I meet in the pub. Double huh!

Just back from the pub extremely irritated by a man who should know better.

"the climate has always changed",
"ice is increasing, not decreasing"
"its all a scam by governments, scientists etc etc"
"sea level rise is a myth - the Florida keys are still there"
and so on, and so on.....

Ho hum.

[FredBear]

I hate that oversimplified explanation because it implies things that are false.

The generally accepted hypothesis seems to be that as warmer temperatures increase the capacity of air to hold water, one should see more snow in winter.

Air doesn't "hold" water vapor. Water vapor is a completely miscible component of air. You can boil water vapor into air until your pot runs dry. The air doesn't care. Of course, your cool windows will quickly fog up.

   .    .   but if air containing water vapour cools it may become super-saturated with water vapour, which will condense out on suitable "seeds" to form clouds or fog surfaces = the air cannot "hold" the water vapour as vapour?  Most of the water vapour reaches the atmosphere further south where the ocean is warmer and forms clouds as it moves to higher latitudes. It is easier to evaporate more water at higher temperatures, offering more potential for condensation as rain or snow.
[Sorry, OT nit-pick]

[gerontocrat]

Most of the water vapour reaches the atmosphere further south where the ocean is warmer and forms clouds as it moves to higher latitudes. It is easier to evaporate more water at higher temperatures, offering more potential for condensation as rain or snow.
[Sorry, OT nit-pick]

You mean as in the image below? Not OT in my opinion - seems to me from my un-collated observations that most of the Greenland precipitation is from a long way away (amospheric rivers?), not locally generated weather systems.

cci-reanalyzer 24 Feb

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

That damn SSW thing is doing a mischief to "my theory that belongs to me", (i.e. that the decline in precipitation on Greenland that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence). Precipitation has gone up, and then stayed up so precipitation to date is marching upwards from the average

The BBC weather for the UK says cold with easterlies from Siberia until about the 7th March. maybe reflecting that by then the SSW impact will have faded away and calmness will be restored. Unless, of course, yet another event in the current "series of unfortunate events" comes along.

[Daniel B.]

Maybe you just need to tweek your theory some.  Perhaps there is another factor that is overriding the La Nina decline.

[gerontocrat]

Maybe you just need to tweek your theory some.  Perhaps there is another factor that is overriding the La Nina decline.

At my age I can only handle one variable at a time - but the climate takes no notice of my limitations.

[Daniel B.]

Maybe you just need to tweek your theory some.  Perhaps there is another factor that is overriding the La Nina decline.

At my age I can only handle one variable at a time - but the climate takes no notice of my limitations.

Yeah, you have a few years on me.  I am interested in the Greenland glaciers, but most of my field experience is limited to Alaska.  So I find your theory rather intriguing.

[gerontocrat]

Maybe you just need to tweek your theory some.  Perhaps there is another factor that is overriding the La Nina decline.

At my age I can only handle one variable at a time - but the climate takes no notice of my limitations.

Yeah, you have a few years on me.  I am interested in the Greenland glaciers, but most of my field experience is limited to Alaska.  So I find your theory rather intriguing.

The SSW has screwed up just everything over most of the Northern Hemisphere. But the science of that damn thing is too much for me. But I will wait for when someone says "the SSW and its after-effects are over" and see what happens then. But what if the SSW is a game-changer, and its effects are permanent (until the next event in rapid climate transition) ?

[Alexander555]

Maybe you just need to tweek your theory some.  Perhaps there is another factor that is overriding the La Nina decline.

At my age I can only handle one variable at a time - but the climate takes no notice of my limitations.

Yeah, you have a few years on me.  I am interested in the Greenland glaciers, but most of my field experience is limited to Alaska.  So I find your theory rather intriguing.

Your feeld experience is Alaska. That maybe you can answer  one of the questions i asked myself this year. I have been a few times in Katmai National Park. And i remember that the rangers in the park told my that they enter the park at the end of May. And they move out somewhere in September. Because of the snow .And from the summer lost year i have been using Ventusky. That gives you a good general view from temperatures  en things like snow across the world. And what i have seen so far on Ventusky is not the same as what these rangers told me. Or maybe it's just one winter. Because i have nothing to compare with the years before. But it looks like it's a soft winter compared to what they told me. They were talking about a thick layer of snow for something like 8 months. It looks soft, is that a trend in Alaska.

[Daniel B.]

Maybe you just need to tweek your theory some.  Perhaps there is another factor that is overriding the La Nina decline.

At my age I can only handle one variable at a time - but the climate takes no notice of my limitations.

Yeah, you have a few years on me.  I am interested in the Greenland glaciers, but most of my field experience is limited to Alaska.  So I find your theory rather intriguing.

Your feeld experience is Alaska. That maybe you can answer  one of the questions i asked myself this year. I have been a few times in Katmai National Park. And i remember that the rangers in the park told my that they enter the park at the end of May. And they move out somewhere in September. Because of the snow .And from the summer lost year i have been using Ventusky. That gives you a good general view from temperatures  en things like snow across the world. And what i have seen so far on Ventusky is not the same as what these rangers told me. Or maybe it's just one winter. Because i have nothing to compare with the years before. But it looks like it's a soft winter compared to what they told me. They were talking about a thick layer of snow for something like 8 months. It looks soft, is that a trend in Alaska.

Every year is different, and more dependent on Pacific Ocean temperatures than anywhere else.  The most recent El Niño led to some very warm temps along the coast, especially in winter, but more cloud cover in summer (I was there for two weeks this past summer, and saw the sun twice).  The important thing to remember about studying glaciers in Alaska is that it is on the temperature cusp; the point at which the temperature rise pushes colder areas closer to freezing and warmer areas further above.  Hence, some of the southern glaciers have retreated significantly in recent decades, while others nearby have advanced.  This is a result of more moisture falling as snow, especially in the St. Elias.  Katmai is intriguing for its combination of volcanic and glacial activity.  Because of this, it is difficult to pin glacier movement on weather alone.  It is truly a fascinating area.  I did not get to Katmai this summer, so I cannot comment intelligently on the rangers statements.  Another note to remember is that not all the rangers are experts.  Some are retirees from the lower 48, that are basically summer visitors, and are regurgitating what they have been told.  I have found that local trekkers are more reliable resources, and the park service often relies on their knowledge.  I hope I have been helpful.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Curses on you, SSW. That damn thing is doing yet more mischief to "my theory that belongs to me", (i.e. that the decline in precipitation on Greenland that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence).

It looks like DMI need to widen the range for daily precipitation to 14 gt.

[Daniel B.]

The latest storm to hit the U.S. is not exiting to the northeast.  It is headed towards Greenland.  The trend may continue for another day or so.

[JMP]

From Robert Scribbler's blog - February 26, 2018 (He also mentions Neven elsewhere)

"Robert Rohde
@rarohde
Replying to @rarohde
An updated time series for Cape Morris Jesup, Northern Greenland using DMI's hourly values.

The last 10 days have seen a series of swings near and above freezing.


 
Robert Rohde
@rarohde

In 2018, there have already been 61 hours above freezing at Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland.

The previous record was 16 hours before the end of April in 2011. "



7:02 PM - Feb 25, 2018
View image on Twitter

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/02/26/a-large-area-of-open-water-forms-in-the-melting-sea-ice-north-of-greenland-during-february/

[I'm an idiot but can't get the pics to work]

[gerontocrat]

The chart shows surface mass balance... Does it also include sublimation?  (ie, is it necessary to invoke melting to explain the red area?)

Yep, melting includes sublimation

Sublimation is distinctly different from melting... it shouldn't appear on the %surface melt graph, even though the SMB is negative.

Pink areas showed up on the daily SMB map on several days during January. LifeBlack pointed out that it is probably sublimation (unless it shows up on the Melting Graph)

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
28 FEB DATA
That damn SSW thing looks as if it has stopped doing more mischief to "my theory that belongs to me", (i.e. that the decline in precipitation on Greenland that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence).

Looking very dry over Greenland now and at least for the next week.  Maybe the accumulatedsmb graph is heading for average again, in contrast with N America Snow Water Equivalent.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
5th March data

There is a solid high planted over Greenland - and it looks like it will be there for some time. So Greenland precipitation looks as if it will be minimal until....... The contrast with Snow Water Equivalent in its neighbour - North America - is striking.

Does this mean that "my theory that belongs to me", (i.e. that the decline in precipitation on Greenland that started in November coincides with the onset and continuance of La Nina conditions and this is not a coincidence) is on track again? Apparently the strong current negative  NAO often gives rise to abnormally high pressure in high latitudes and abnormally low pressure in mid-latitudes. If this is nothing to do with La Nina my theory collapses in a heap.

ps: The last image attached below suggests that N.E. USA is going to get a humdinger of a Nor'Easter around Mar 14-15, just 2-3 days before the new moon. A long way off, but...

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

7th March Data

I posted last time on this thread on 6th March. I could post all the text and images again but just add two days to the date. Now we learn that it is as well to take forecasts of weather beyond five days with a big bag of salt. BUT I also read that due to such things as a weakened jet stream that sometimes a weather pattern gets stuck, as happened recently with the cold easterlies flowing from Siberia over NW Europe that lasted 10+ days.

Are we in such a situation now? I used the slider on the hourly forecast option in cci-renalyzer (choosing Northern Hemisphere (globe) - precipitation and pressure) and saw mid-latitude lows going round and round west to east with the unmoving centre being the high planted over Greenland.

So I predict (fool!) that Greenland will stay very dry for at least the next 10 days and accumulatedsmb will continue to go back to average in even greater contrast with snow in N. America.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

11th March Data

I posted on this thread on 6th March and 8th March. I could post all the text and images again but just change  the date.

So I still predict (fool!) that Greenland will stay very dry for at least until the equinox, and accumulatedsmb will continue to go back to average in even greater contrast with snow in N. America.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

14th March

Greenland precipitation still below average. Apart from a couple of days around 19th to 21 March (strong low from NE USA approaches S. Greenland) looks like staying that way for the next 10 days.
Contrast with North America snow water equivalent could not be greater (another big snow dump in NE USA currently still in progress).

[Daniel B.]

Yes, it appears that the blocking will reduce Greenland snowfall for the foreseeable future, but increase snowfall in the U.S.  Spring may be postponed for a little while in many U.S. cities.