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Author Topic: Greenland 2018 melt season  (Read 24596 times)

JamesW

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #200 on: August 01, 2018, 08:52:29 PM »
https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Biggest % daily melt we had in a good length of time according to NSIDC

31st July 2018

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #201 on: August 03, 2018, 10:45:01 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 2 August 2018

Commentary mostly unchanged again.

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from one, maybe two days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

The large melt that started on Monday has continued (47% on Thursday, highest for year to date), with one day of less precipitation - that did change things a bit - making two days since June 1 where SMB loss was above average. Precipitation is back up, SMB loss well below average again.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

On average there are now, on average, only about 15 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). Of course, there may be surprises to come.

ps:- I missed NSIDC's mid-season update on https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/. Two things-
- NSIDC uses the same measure for the melt percentage - anything more than one millimetre of depth loss,
- the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #202 on: August 06, 2018, 01:48:12 AM »
It appears that the melt season is rapidly coming to a close. Models show large areas of negative height anomalies beginning to dominate by D7-D10. And, snows are beginning to become quite impressive once more.





We may see another week or two of minor variable melt but, IMO, by 8/15, SMB loss should be mostly finished for this year.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #203 on: August 07, 2018, 10:17:06 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 6 August 2018

Quote
Commentary mostly unchanged again.

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from one, maybe two days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

The large melt that started last week has continued at over 40% - but precipitation has been up and down. Today there was little precipitation, and it shows in the above average SMB loss.

On average there are now, on average, only about 10 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #204 on: August 08, 2018, 10:38:57 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 7 August 2018

The large melt that started last week has continued but is weakening slowly - but precipitation has been up and down. Today there was a bit more precipitation, and it shows in the average SMB loss.

However, GFS says that today the 8 August large parts of Greenland will be above zero (see 1st image attached). A big melting event? It also looks like there will be a lot of rain today all down the West Coast. I wonder how the DMI model will deal with that.

The outlook on temperatures for the next few days looks like warm fringes but a cold interior will limit melting. On the other hand, not much precipitation after today. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.


Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about 10 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #205 on: August 09, 2018, 04:39:21 AM »
Is Greenland really 10C above average right now?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

mostly_lurking

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #206 on: August 09, 2018, 08:14:51 AM »
..snip

However, GFS says that today the 8 August large parts of Greenland will be above zero (see 1st image attached). A big melting event? It also looks like there will be a lot of rain today all down the West Coast. I wonder how the DMI model will deal with that.


Seems like we still had less than average SMB loss. Will be less precipitation in the next few days and warm temps on the coasts but it's mostly areas where the ice has already melted- any further inland it's still below zero- don't think we will see too much melt in the next days.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #207 on: August 09, 2018, 09:43:20 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 8 August 2018

GFS got something right (gasp). Melt up to 44% and a lot of rain on the west coast (snow inland), below average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next few days looks like warm fringes but a cold interior will limit melting. On the other hand, not much precipitation after today. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about 10 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #208 on: August 09, 2018, 12:50:19 PM »
I think this season has fully revealed how SMB losses aren't necessary for gross total mass loss to have an impact on the NATL (given how blue anomalies remain, clearly runoff / melt is still occurring). We may not even need actual SMB losses for the net annual flux to do enough damage to severely impact the current system of heat distribution, as it seems increasing annual snowfall across the continents and Greenland in itself is capable of severe impacts.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #209 on: August 10, 2018, 11:04:54 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 9 August 2018

Melt up to 45% from 44% and not much precipitation giving above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next few days looks like warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And not much precipitation in the next few days. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #210 on: August 11, 2018, 04:47:36 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 10 August 2018

Melt still high but down to 39% from 45% and not much precipitation giving above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next 3 days Today, Sunday, Monday) days looks like strong melt likely and afterwards warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And not much precipitation in the next few days. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #211 on: August 12, 2018, 04:07:02 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 10 August 2018

Melt still high but down to 38% from 39% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next 2 days (Sunday, Monday) days looks like strong melt likely and afterwards warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a good bit more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few recent days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now EDIT a bit less than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

The NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there is now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #212 on: August 13, 2018, 09:22:10 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 12 August 2018

Melt still high - 40% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for Monday looks like strong melt likely and afterwards warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a bit more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few recent days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now EDIT a bit less than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

The NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there is now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #213 on: August 14, 2018, 12:05:00 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 13 August 2018

Melt still high - down to 37% from 40% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #214 on: August 15, 2018, 10:36:32 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 14 August 2018

How odd, things are happening very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still high - down to 32% from 37% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #215 on: August 17, 2018, 09:45:18 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 16 August 2018

How even more odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 21% just above average, and not much precipitation giving another above average (just) SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #216 on: August 17, 2018, 06:49:09 PM »
Looks like snows pick up imminently, though nothing prolific yet, unless the new GFS is correct:






gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #217 on: August 18, 2018, 01:25:22 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 17 August 2018

How even more odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 20% from 21% - still  just above average, and very little precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now still looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. GFS says three precipitation events, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday being a mixture of rain and snow mainly confined to S Greenland. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.

As of now SMB gain for the year looks at about 150 gt above average.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #218 on: August 19, 2018, 09:31:39 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 18 August 2018

How even more odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 19% from 20% - still  just above average, and very little precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now still looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. GFS says three precipitation events, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday being a mixture of rain and snow mainly confined to S Greenland. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.

As of now SMB gain for the year looks at about 150 gt above average.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #219 on: August 19, 2018, 10:01:20 AM »
It's interesting - this year's peak SMB loss missed the usual peak. Now, when it is supposed to calm down, it refuses to let go.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #220 on: August 19, 2018, 10:08:39 AM »
It's interesting - this year's peak SMB loss missed the usual peak. Now, when it is supposed to calm down, it refuses to let go.

About usual melting now- just no precipitation. Should pick up in 7-10 days.