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JamesW

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #200 on: August 01, 2018, 08:52:29 PM »
https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Biggest % daily melt we had in a good length of time according to NSIDC

31st July 2018

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #201 on: August 03, 2018, 10:45:01 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 2 August 2018

Commentary mostly unchanged again.

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from one, maybe two days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

The large melt that started on Monday has continued (47% on Thursday, highest for year to date), with one day of less precipitation - that did change things a bit - making two days since June 1 where SMB loss was above average. Precipitation is back up, SMB loss well below average again.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

On average there are now, on average, only about 15 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). Of course, there may be surprises to come.

ps:- I missed NSIDC's mid-season update on https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/. Two things-
- NSIDC uses the same measure for the melt percentage - anything more than one millimetre of depth loss,
- the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #202 on: August 06, 2018, 01:48:12 AM »
It appears that the melt season is rapidly coming to a close. Models show large areas of negative height anomalies beginning to dominate by D7-D10. And, snows are beginning to become quite impressive once more.





We may see another week or two of minor variable melt but, IMO, by 8/15, SMB loss should be mostly finished for this year.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #203 on: August 07, 2018, 10:17:06 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 6 August 2018

Quote
Commentary mostly unchanged again.

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from one, maybe two days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

The large melt that started last week has continued at over 40% - but precipitation has been up and down. Today there was little precipitation, and it shows in the above average SMB loss.

On average there are now, on average, only about 10 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #204 on: August 08, 2018, 10:38:57 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 7 August 2018

The large melt that started last week has continued but is weakening slowly - but precipitation has been up and down. Today there was a bit more precipitation, and it shows in the average SMB loss.

However, GFS says that today the 8 August large parts of Greenland will be above zero (see 1st image attached). A big melting event? It also looks like there will be a lot of rain today all down the West Coast. I wonder how the DMI model will deal with that.

The outlook on temperatures for the next few days looks like warm fringes but a cold interior will limit melting. On the other hand, not much precipitation after today. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.


Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about 10 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #205 on: August 09, 2018, 04:39:21 AM »
Is Greenland really 10C above average right now?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

mostly_lurking

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #206 on: August 09, 2018, 08:14:51 AM »
..snip

However, GFS says that today the 8 August large parts of Greenland will be above zero (see 1st image attached). A big melting event? It also looks like there will be a lot of rain today all down the West Coast. I wonder how the DMI model will deal with that.


Seems like we still had less than average SMB loss. Will be less precipitation in the next few days and warm temps on the coasts but it's mostly areas where the ice has already melted- any further inland it's still below zero- don't think we will see too much melt in the next days.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #207 on: August 09, 2018, 09:43:20 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 8 August 2018

GFS got something right (gasp). Melt up to 44% and a lot of rain on the west coast (snow inland), below average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next few days looks like warm fringes but a cold interior will limit melting. On the other hand, not much precipitation after today. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about 10 days left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #208 on: August 09, 2018, 12:50:19 PM »
I think this season has fully revealed how SMB losses aren't necessary for gross total mass loss to have an impact on the NATL (given how blue anomalies remain, clearly runoff / melt is still occurring). We may not even need actual SMB losses for the net annual flux to do enough damage to severely impact the current system of heat distribution, as it seems increasing annual snowfall across the continents and Greenland in itself is capable of severe impacts.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #209 on: August 10, 2018, 11:04:54 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 9 August 2018

Melt up to 45% from 44% and not much precipitation giving above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next few days looks like warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And not much precipitation in the next few days. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #210 on: August 11, 2018, 04:47:36 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 10 August 2018

Melt still high but down to 39% from 45% and not much precipitation giving above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next 3 days Today, Sunday, Monday) days looks like strong melt likely and afterwards warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And not much precipitation in the next few days. So maybe SMB will reduce some more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few days days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now more than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

the NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there are now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #211 on: August 12, 2018, 04:07:02 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 10 August 2018

Melt still high but down to 38% from 39% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for the next 2 days (Sunday, Monday) days looks like strong melt likely and afterwards warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a good bit more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few recent days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now EDIT a bit less than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

The NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there is now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #212 on: August 13, 2018, 09:22:10 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 12 August 2018

Melt still high - 40% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures for Monday looks like strong melt likely and afterwards warm fringes but a cold interior will limit but not stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a bit more.

Quote
Unchanged Commentary

When melt is high, precipitation seems also mostly above average. When melt is low, precipitation is often higher than average, but not by much. SMB was supposed to be on the decline since the beginning of June. Apart from a few recent days, SMB decline has been persistently below average. As a result, current SMB looks like it is now EDIT a bit less than 150 GT above the 30 year average.

In contrast, although last year the story was also about SMB increasing well above average. it was for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall.

The NSIDC model is coming up with a far higher estimate of above average SMB gain for this year than DMI (around 200+GT above average compared with DMI's 130 Gt at the beginning of July).

On average there is now, on average, only about one week left for the Greenland SMB to reduce (i.e. melt). GFS says there will be high enough temperatures to continue melt over the next few days. Of course, there may be surprises to come, (e.g. weather travelling up the Baffin Sea). Nevertheless, it is very probable there will be an above average increase in SMB by about 150 GT for this 2017-18 year. (But that is not an enormous difference).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #213 on: August 14, 2018, 12:05:00 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 13 August 2018

Melt still high - down to 37% from 40% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #214 on: August 15, 2018, 10:36:32 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 14 August 2018

How odd, things are happening very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still high - down to 32% from 37% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #215 on: August 17, 2018, 09:45:18 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 16 August 2018

How even more odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 21% just above average, and not much precipitation giving another above average (just) SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #216 on: August 17, 2018, 06:49:09 PM »
Looks like snows pick up imminently, though nothing prolific yet, unless the new GFS is correct:






gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #217 on: August 18, 2018, 01:25:22 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 17 August 2018

How even more odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 20% from 21% - still  just above average, and very little precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now still looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. GFS says three precipitation events, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday being a mixture of rain and snow mainly confined to S Greenland. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.

As of now SMB gain for the year looks at about 150 gt above average.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #218 on: August 19, 2018, 09:31:39 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 18 August 2018

How even more odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS said it would. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 19% from 20% - still  just above average, and very little precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now still looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. GFS says three precipitation events, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday being a mixture of rain and snow mainly confined to S Greenland. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.

As of now SMB gain for the year looks at about 150 gt above average.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #219 on: August 19, 2018, 10:01:20 AM »
It's interesting - this year's peak SMB loss missed the usual peak. Now, when it is supposed to calm down, it refuses to let go.

mostly_lurking

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #220 on: August 19, 2018, 10:08:39 AM »
It's interesting - this year's peak SMB loss missed the usual peak. Now, when it is supposed to calm down, it refuses to let go.

About usual melting now- just no precipitation. Should pick up in 7-10 days.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #221 on: August 20, 2018, 12:01:38 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 19 August 2018

How even more extremely odd, things are continuing to happen very much as GFS say they will. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt still highish - down to 17% from 19% - still  just above average, and very little precipitation giving another above average SMB loss. As of now SMB gain for the year looks at about or a bit less than 150 gt above average.

Maybe the melting season will end with a bit of a bang. In general the outlook on temperatures from now still looks like warm fringes and a cold interior that will gradually reduce melting with very little precipitation forecast. However, on the coming Friday / Saturday a fairly intense low over Baffin island looks like giving both warmth and a mixture of rain and snow over SW Greenland.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #222 on: August 21, 2018, 08:44:24 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 20 August 2018

Things are continuing to happen very much as GFS say they will. Getting cooler, getting dryer.

Melt down to 15% from 17% -  average, and very little precipitation giving another above average SMB loss. As of now SMB gain for the year is a bit less than 150 gt above average.

Maybe the melting season will end with a bit of a bang. In general the outlook on temperatures from now still looks like warm fringes and a cold interior that will gradually reduce melting with very little precipitation forecast. However, on the coming Friday / Saturday a fairly intense low over Baffin island looks like giving both warmth and a mixture of rain and snow over SW Greenland.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #223 on: August 23, 2018, 02:31:45 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 22 August 2018

On schedule without drama the Greenland melting season finishes.  The SMB gain for the year is a bit less than 150 gt above average.

However, on this coming Friday / Saturday a fairly intense low over Baffin island looks like giving both warmth and a mixture of rain and snow over SW Greenland.  Worth a look if it happens.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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mostly_lurking

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #224 on: August 23, 2018, 03:07:14 PM »
All in all, a pretty reasonable 2 years for Greenland. Was interesting to watch.
Another year like the last two and it might be a new trend!

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #225 on: August 23, 2018, 05:58:05 PM »
All in all, a pretty reasonable 2 years for Greenland. Was interesting to watch.
Another year like the last two and it might be a new trend!
Might you think, the TSI, radiating at a 12+ year sub-standard level, has any effect on Greenland SMB?

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #226 on: August 23, 2018, 06:42:18 PM »
All in all, a pretty reasonable 2 years for Greenland. Was interesting to watch.
Another year like the last two and it might be a new trend!
Might you think, the TSI, radiating at a 12+ year sub-standard level, has any effect on Greenland SMB?

In 12 years CO2 ppm went up by over 25 ppm or about 10% on pre-industrial levels. I am sure waxing and waning of radiation from the sun effects everything.  I am also sure that AGW overwhelms everything.

I am wondering more about the effect over the next 2 years of a "Modoki" El Nino followed by a strong standard El Nino (as in the 1980's and mentioned by Oren(?)) - not just on Greenland Surface Mass balance but also calving, the Arctic, the Antarctic,  and the World's climate and weather patterns.

Things might get a bit hairy.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #227 on: August 23, 2018, 07:40:29 PM »
Quote
Things might get a bit hairy.
Like the 'hair' seen on partially rotted whales.  Really, really, nasty stuff.

[Edit: Thinking of nasty stuff, this is my post #1984.  Can you guess what book was written in 1948 (and published the following year)?]
« Last Edit: August 23, 2018, 08:52:47 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #228 on: August 24, 2018, 01:09:51 AM »
[Edit: Thinking of nasty stuff, this is my post #1984.  Can you guess what book was written in 1948 (and published the following year)?]

Sorry Tor, but your post was your first "post #1984" post.
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Given the way things are going perhaps the author was really an optimist ?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #229 on: August 25, 2018, 11:31:24 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 24 August 2018

On schedule without drama the Greenland melting season finishes.  The SMB gain for the year is a bit less than 150 gt above average.

I said...
Quote
However, on this coming Friday / Saturday a fairly intense low over Baffin island looks like giving both warmth and a mixture of rain and snow over SW Greenland.  Worth a look if it happens.

Nothing happened, really. A bit of rain/snow. Decline in melt halted for a day.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #230 on: September 01, 2018, 11:39:52 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 31 August 2018

On schedule without drama the Greenland melting season finishes.  The SMB gain for the year is 150 gt above average.

The last two days did give a bit of drama as S. Greenland got a good bit of rain and snow from a low which is now zooming up the East Greenland coast.

GFS suggests that S Greenland will get another dose of precipitation in about a weeks time - but this time from way down south.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2018, 11:48:15 AM by gerontocrat »
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #231 on: September 01, 2018, 12:03:24 PM »
Now is the time to thank you Gerontocrat for your constant updates in this thread.

Darvince

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #232 on: September 03, 2018, 12:35:56 PM »
Indeed - and thank you for posting on the 31st - as it reminded me to download the graphics to get the complete years before the new ice year begins!

maga

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #233 on: September 07, 2018, 12:39:19 PM »
I wonder what the mass balance measurements will tell us, especially from the Q-transect (hopefully in the Arctic Report Card). I have been in South Greenland this summer and it was wet. Still, I noted that on a cold and very foggy/rainy day about 10-15 cm of snow melted off a snow patch. In the evening there was even some fresh snow/sleet falling and the next day was cold as well but became sunnier. The snowline moved back up to about 2000m that day. My guess is now that all this humidity might have melted a lot of snow/ice in the lower elevations of the south but may have accumulated significantly higher up. Therefore I expect a steep mass balance gradient.

I don't really know what is a normal melt rate but during a stay at the same location a few years ago roughly one meter melted in 1,5 weeks during sunny and warm weather. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #234 on: September 08, 2018, 12:26:09 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 7 September 2018

The last few days did give a bit of drama as S. Greenland got a good bit of rain and snow from a big low from Canada. GFS suggests that S Greenland will get more doses of rain and snow, especially in the South from strong westerly lows. Melt has stayed at 6 to 7% for a good few days.

I wonder how the algorithm deals with rain - especially at low altitude near the coast - SMB loss or SMB gain?

ps: The NASA GRACE FO Mission website says data will start to be distributed about 7 months after launch (which was May 22). So maybe a Xmas 2018 or New Year 2019 present. They have even set up a webpage where they promise to post data at least once a month. (https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/data/grace-data/)

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #235 on: September 14, 2018, 01:01:29 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 7 September 2018

SMB Up a bit, down a bit. Nowt else to say.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #236 on: September 16, 2018, 01:36:40 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 7 September 2018

Almost no precipitation.
Almost no melt.

Quiet descends.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #237 on: September 20, 2018, 11:18:15 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 19 September 2018

Almost no precipitation.
Almost no melt.

Quiet descends.

A contrast with the last 2 years of above average precipitation may be developing.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #238 on: September 22, 2018, 10:17:44 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 19 September 2018

Almost no precipitation.
No melt.

Quiet descends.

Below average precipitation looks set to continue for some days.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #239 on: September 22, 2018, 07:13:29 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
...
No melt.
...
Except for the areas with light pink along the SE coastline.  Or is that mass loss all sublimation?
  :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #240 on: September 22, 2018, 09:20:12 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
...
No melt.
...
Except for the areas with light pink along the SE coastline.  Or is that mass loss all sublimation?
  :)
Hullo Tor, quotes from the website below.

"Todaysmb" 1st Image
"we show the daily surface mass balance (on the left) and you can see where it has snowed and melted (incl. sublimate) on the ice sheet over the last 24 hours."

meltcombine (last image)
"This melt map only shows areas where melt has happened. It does not include evaporation directly from the ice sheet surface"

But, if you get a magnifying glass, you will find a tiny tiny bit of melt on the last image, i.e. my comment "no melt" needs amending to "as near as dammit no melt".
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #241 on: September 22, 2018, 10:50:24 PM »
Thanks, gerontocrat, I forgot their legend definitions.  ... But the things I've got to do to get you to swear!  ::)
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #242 on: September 24, 2018, 03:03:24 AM »
Tired of waiting for GRACE-FO, so I emailed them. Received the following results.
Quote
Hello,

Is there an estimated date for when GRACE FO will complete scientific testing and begin to relay data?

Cheers

Which was followed by:

Quote
We’re a bit delayed with an issue, but we hope to have science data soon.

You can read the latest here: https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/139/grace-fo-satellite-switching-to-backup-instrument-processing-unit/

Kristen Walbolt
Web producer
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

No hard date given, only a soft "soon"


oren

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #243 on: September 24, 2018, 07:21:30 AM »
Thanks. Seems like the end of October is (hopefully) the expected date, as they plan to switch this month and will wait for 30 days of data.
I hope this difficulty is not a harbinger of worse things for this important mission.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #244 on: September 28, 2018, 10:20:32 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 27 September 2018

Almost no melt.

Precipitation high - storm today and Sunday / Monday will keep it high. Maybe much quieter for a few days after.

SMB gain will probably stay close to average.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #245 on: October 05, 2018, 01:27:30 PM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 4 Oct 2018

No melt.

Precipitation high - storm today and Saturday will keep it high. Maybe much quieter for a few days after.

SMB gain for the year (from Sep 1) will probably stay close to average.

_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
[/quote]
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #246 on: October 12, 2018, 09:29:22 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2018 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 11 Oct 2018

No melt.
Precipitation low
SMB gain for the year (from Sep 1) is and will probably stay very close to average.

In an attempt to make this post slightly interesting I attach two images from https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/, being 5 day forecasts of average temperatures and accumulated precipitation in the Arctic.

They show West Greenland colder than average, East Greenland warmer than average, with most precipitation on the East coast as Atlantic lows travel west to east and then curl northwards up the Greenland sea into the far north Atlantic.

In a facetious attempt to create drama I note that accumulated SMB from September 1 to date is following the 2011-12 pattern - and look what happened in 2012 !!
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance, which excludes mass loss from calving that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alexander555

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #247 on: October 16, 2018, 07:19:42 AM »
He gerontocrat, is it possible to put a number on it ( in km3) , how much melt there is in Greenland in summer. Not the difference between summer losses and winter gains. Just summer losses. If your hardware can handle it  :)

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #248 on: October 16, 2018, 08:05:05 AM »
Re: amount of summer melt in GIS

well GIS is losing approx. 300-400 gigaton per year and Enderlin has shown some years ago that it is melt driving, rather than discharge.

open access, read all about it: doi: 10.1002/2013GL059010

i attach fig 3.

sidd

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #249 on: October 16, 2018, 08:18:36 AM »
That brings me to two other questions,the answers to which i am very interested in.

what is the current height of the saddle between the north and south domes at 67N and what is now the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) there ?

Some years ago, the ELA rose higher than the elevation at the saddle, and i noted as much on realclimate. That was significant, Gregoire foresaw saddle collapse many years ago.

However, as far as i can ascertain, melt lakes have not been yet observed crossing the saddle. When they do, i see doom.

sidd