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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #150 on: March 25, 2018, 03:30:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +11.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #151 on: March 25, 2018, 04:27:13 PM »
Mid March forecast probabilities from IRI will be interesting.
In March 2014 the mid month probabilities for NDJ were 3%, 39% and 58% and none of the models listed at IRI were below 0° from ASO.

Early March forecast from IRI 2014 showed probabilities for OND at 7%, 41% and 52%.
Early March forecast from IRI 2018 shows probabilities for OND at 20%, 40% and 40%.

IRI mid March probabilities for NDJ 2018: 18%, 34% and 48%.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #152 on: March 26, 2018, 03:29:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #153 on: March 26, 2018, 04:59:57 PM »
While NOAA has not updated its weekly Nino indices for last week; nevertheless, the first two NOAA plots for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD thru the week ending March 25 2018; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #154 on: March 26, 2018, 05:02:07 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending March 25 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #155 on: March 27, 2018, 04:51:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #156 on: March 28, 2018, 03:28:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +9.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #157 on: March 29, 2018, 03:49:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #158 on: March 30, 2018, 03:39:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #159 on: March 31, 2018, 03:33:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +10.4:
« Last Edit: April 02, 2018, 12:28:18 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #160 on: March 31, 2018, 07:03:18 PM »
It might be of some interest to notice that Super Typhoon Jelawat is the third earliest tropical cyclone to achieve status as a "Super Typhoon" behind Higos in 2015 and Mitag in 2002.

As some of you are aware of, an El Niño developed in both 2002 and 2015.

Other years that have seen Super Typhoons before the end of April is from what I can find:

2004, 2003, 1997 and 1989.

2004 and 1997 both saw an El Niño. 2003 started with a decaying El Niño but ended neutral. In 1989 a strong La Niña was in charge but ended up in cool neutral year.

All in all it seems that the odds for an El Niño just increased....

Happy Easter! :)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #161 on: April 02, 2018, 12:29:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +10.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #162 on: April 02, 2018, 03:30:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at +10.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #163 on: April 02, 2018, 05:33:38 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on March 28, 2018; the first two images issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively; and the last two images issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, the 2017-18 season is now officially a La Nina event, and weak La Nina conditions continued thru the end of March 2018:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #164 on: April 02, 2018, 05:36:56 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM showing values thru the week ending April 1, 2018.  This data indicates that while the current La Nina may be weakening, we are still currently in a weak La Nina condition:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #165 on: April 03, 2018, 03:27:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #166 on: April 03, 2018, 04:17:18 AM »
The big thing to watch continues to be the evolution of the kelvin wave as it moves east and surfaces this spring and summer.  Will this lead to neutral, warm neutral or an Niño?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #167 on: April 03, 2018, 06:20:36 PM »
The big thing to watch continues to be the evolution of the kelvin wave as it moves east and surfaces this spring and summer.  Will this lead to neutral, warm neutral or an Niño?

Here is the associated TAO measurements of the Pac Eq ocean Temps and Temp Anoms, with depth, for April 3 2018; which indicates that the oceanic EKW is rapidly degrading.  Thus I believe that the 2018-19 ENSO season will likely be neutral.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #168 on: April 04, 2018, 03:28:08 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #169 on: April 05, 2018, 03:28:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.8:
« Last Edit: April 06, 2018, 04:19:42 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #170 on: April 05, 2018, 05:12:49 AM »
3rd highest March PMM value in the 70 year dataset.  It has been observed as an often precursor to El Niño events due to weakening of trades. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #171 on: April 06, 2018, 04:20:33 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #172 on: April 07, 2018, 04:00:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #173 on: April 08, 2018, 04:45:15 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #174 on: April 09, 2018, 03:33:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +13.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #175 on: April 09, 2018, 04:54:23 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices values, & the first two NOAA plots (Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively) and the last two BoM plots (Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively); there is a better than even chance that we are seeing the beginning of a transition from La Nina to Neutral ENSO conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #176 on: April 09, 2018, 04:57:32 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 8 2018 & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data supports the idea that there is a better than even chance that currently the ENSO is transitioning from La Nina to Neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mitch

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #177 on: April 09, 2018, 06:50:46 PM »
There's a big warm kelvin wave coming across the Pacific that has reached 115W (only 4000 km more to the coast).  When that starts surfacing there will be some major changes in eastern Pacific temperatures.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #178 on: April 10, 2018, 03:26:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +12.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #179 on: April 11, 2018, 03:27:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #180 on: April 11, 2018, 07:45:26 AM »
Latest ECMWF plumes pointing to at least warm neutral if not El Niño by this summer/fall.  Latest NMME suite also leaning towards the same by the fall.  Of course we're still in the most unpredictable time of the year for ENSO. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #181 on: April 12, 2018, 03:30:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #182 on: April 13, 2018, 03:32:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #183 on: April 13, 2018, 07:15:44 AM »
New CPC/IRI ENSO probabilities released.  Odds continue to increase for El Niño by summer/fall.  The probabilities are up from the March and February releases.  Kelvin wave also continues to slowly approach the surface.  The next few will be interesting as surface waters/anoms start to warm.

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #184 on: April 13, 2018, 08:07:40 AM »
Latest ECMWF plumes pointing to at least warm neutral if not El Niño by this summer/fall.
ECMWF has been running hot for a long time now. The same in March.
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #185 on: April 13, 2018, 08:14:47 AM »
Adding all areas from ECMWF for April as well.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #186 on: April 13, 2018, 08:17:56 AM »
From the graphs Sleepy presents, I get the impression that if an El Niño is going to emerge later this year it might be a "Modoki El Niño".

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #187 on: April 13, 2018, 08:23:52 AM »
Or a dud if they keep running hot.

Edit; adding the animation with last years plumes that I posted in reply #9 and attaching a follow up with Jan-Mar this year:


Edit 2; also adding the Nino3 region separately for Jan-Mar below.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 08:43:23 AM by Sleepy »
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #188 on: April 13, 2018, 10:17:59 PM »
After 50 consecutive months with positive PDO values,  the string was broken during March! With a PDO value at -0.05 the four year long sequence came to an end. Let's see how the PDO evolves the next few months!

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #189 on: April 13, 2018, 11:21:03 PM »
Eyeballing it on SST maps, looks like we’ll be back to positive for April.  This daily PDO chart is a pretty good proxy for the official numbers.  You can clearly see the PDO was way down in March compared to other months.  You’ll also notice the recovery in the last 2 weeks.

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #190 on: April 14, 2018, 04:09:45 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #191 on: April 14, 2018, 07:27:04 PM »
From the graphs Sleepy presents, I get the impression that if an El Niño is going to emerge later this year it might be a "Modoki El Niño".

As we are currently in the middle of the ENSO Spring barrier, it is difficult to say what will happen by the Fall of 2018, but the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast issued April 14 2018, indicates neutral ENSO conditions then:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #192 on: April 15, 2018, 05:42:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #193 on: April 16, 2018, 03:26:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +12.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #194 on: April 16, 2018, 09:57:35 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino index data thru the week centered on April 11 2018, and the four attached plots, ENSO conditions appear to have transitioned from La Nina conditions into neutral ENSO condtions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #195 on: April 16, 2018, 10:00:25 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino index plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 15 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively they indicate that the ENSO has transitioned into a neutral condition:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #196 on: April 17, 2018, 03:32:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #197 on: April 18, 2018, 04:47:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +11.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #198 on: April 19, 2018, 11:59:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #199 on: April 20, 2018, 07:37:55 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson