2018 ENSO

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly up to -1.0:

20180619,20180718,-1.0

[Sigmetnow]

   Here’s an MJO plot you never want to see!  But, an educational opportunity.

“Either the MJO plotting mechanism is broke or The Day After Tomorrow is gonna happen in about 2 weeks. What say you @MJVentrice”
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1020400985422942209
Image below.

Michael Ventrice:  Wow. Looks like some bad data in there.

[ECMWF is normal....]

<<@hurricanetrack  can you please explain for the many of us who don't know what we are looking at? Thanks!>>

“The Madden Julian Oscillation plot gone wild - it's a glitch but looks like it would be off-the-charts amplified over the next two weeks which would mean really wild things with the weather.”
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1020411615949344769

[wolfpack513]

I wonder if this (area I highlighted with the box) is the start of the standing wave on the 200mb VP anomalies or just weather.  Noticeable detachment from the MJO wave as it continues to weaken & moves east on the Hovmoller.  We'll see....

[wolfpack513]

SSTs starting to recover as the MJO wave passes.  The increased trades ahead of the MJO briefly dropped SSTs but the resulting divergence aloft may help kick the Niño into gear.  You've got crack a few eggs to make an omelet....

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to 0.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.2:

[AbruptSLR]

The prospect of the expanding tropics moving cyclones into new areas is not a very pleasant thought:

Title: "Time bomb': Tropics expansion nudges cyclone formation into new areas"

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/time-bomb-tropics-expansion-nudges-cyclone-formation-into-new-areas-20180723-p4zt26.html
Extract: "Stephen Turton, a cyclone researcher and adjunct professor at Central Queensland University, said the researchers had used "nifty" analysis that stripped out climate variability, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, to identify the poleward shift in cyclones.

The expansion of the tropics, as much as 111 kilometres a decade, had the potential to push the dry sub-tropics much further towards the poles if greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise.

"It could be Brisbane to Sydney, Rome to London, by the end of the century," Professor Turton said."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following week NOAA Nino data and the attached plots (with the first two issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, & the last two issued by the BoM showing Nino 3.4 and IOD data thru the week ending July 29 2018, respectively); indicate that the ENSO condition remains in a slight warm neutral condition:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The following weekly Nino plots show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 data thru the week ending July 29 2018, respectively.  These plots indicate that the ENSO condition remains on the warm side of neutral:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.2:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued July 31 2018.  The second image shows the ECMM - MJO projection issued July 31 2018.  Taken together them images indicate that neither the ocean nor the atmosphere are going to promote an El Nino event anytime soon:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.6:

[wolfpack513]

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued July 31 2018.  The second image shows the ECMM - MJO projection issued July 31 2018.  Taken together them images indicate that neither the ocean nor the atmosphere are going to promote an El Nino event anytime soon:

The RMM phase diagrams are unfiltered.  Low frequency standing wave may be interfering in those plots. 

Dr. Ventrice using that same data from yesterday: “The strongest Low-Frequency tropical forcing near the equator is now seen over the Eastern Pacific and no longer Africa (still strong, however). Note this is a shift in the tropics, in which we are seeing coupling to evolving El Nino conditions over the tropical East Pacific.”
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1024254111968055296?s=21

[AbruptSLR]

Scientist have developed a new index for monitoring ENSO behavior, the El Niño Precipitation Index (ENPI):

Michael Goss et al. (July 31 2018), "Can ENSO-like convection force an ENSO-like extratropical response on subseasonal timescales?", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0771.1

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0771.1

Abstract: "A daily El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is developed based on precipitation rate, and is used to investigate subseasonal time-scale extratropical circulation anomalies associated with ENSO-like convective heating. The index, referred to as the El Niño Precipitation Index (ENPI), is anomalously positive when there is El Niño-like convection. Conversely, the ENPI is anomalously negative when there is La Niña-like convection. It is found that when precipitation becomes El Niño-like (La Niña-like) on subseasonal time scales, the 300-hPa geopotential height field over the North Pacific and western North America becomes El Niño-like (La Niña-like) within 5-10 days. The composites show a small association with the MJO. These results are supported by previous modeling studies, which show that the response over the North Pacific and western North America to an equatorial Pacific heating anomaly occurs within about one week. This suggests that the mean seasonal extratropical response to El Niño (La Niña) may in effect simply be the average of the subseasonal response to subseasonally varying El Niño-like (La Niña-like) convective heating. Implications for subseasonal to seasonal forecasting are discussed."

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued July 31 2018.  The second image shows the ECMM - MJO projection issued July 31 2018.  Taken together them images indicate that neither the ocean nor the atmosphere are going to promote an El Nino event anytime soon:

The RMM phase diagrams are unfiltered.  Low frequency standing wave may be interfering in those plots. 

Dr. Ventrice using that same data from yesterday: “The strongest Low-Frequency tropical forcing near the equator is now seen over the Eastern Pacific and no longer Africa (still strong, however). Note this is a shift in the tropics, in which we are seeing coupling to evolving El Nino conditions over the tropical East Pacific.”
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1024254111968055296?s=21

The ENSO is a chaotic phenomena and thus is difficult to project.  In this regards the first attached image of the POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting July 29 2018, falls more in-line with my line of reasoning:

Edit: The second attached image of Cowan's daily Nino 3.4 index issued August 2 2018, indicates that the POAMA forecast is not too far off:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.9:

[wolfpack513]

Relaxed trades over the main ENSO region forecasted.   *important* these are anomalies not totals/absolute.  Totals never go westerly but the relaxing will allow for some warming. 

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino values thru the week centered on August 1 2018, and the four attached images (the last two show the BoM's weekly Nino 3.4 and IOD thru the week ending August 5, 2018, respectively), the ENSO condition currently remains in a neutral state:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending August 5 2018.  This information indicates that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.4:

[wolfpack513]

SOI forecast from the GFS(FWIW) continues the sizable negative daily contributions that started around August 5th.  Divergence aloft also continues for the main ENSO region as seen on VP anomalies. I would assume Hurricane John may be impacting this some.   

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.0:

[wolfpack513]

Noticeable tongue of cold with warm horse shoe continues to establish in the North Pacific.  PDO index recently dropped to 0 to slightly negative.  I wonder if it’s about to make another run at positive. 

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.9:

[Sleepy]

ECMWF August plumes.

[gerontocrat]

Images from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

 
Synopsis:  There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.

[AbruptSLR]

ECMWF August plumes.

I guess that the ECMWF is implying that a Modoki type of El Nino is coming.  That said, the first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Temp & Temp Anom profiles, which indicate a relatively cool Eastern Pacific (which would be the case in a Modoki).  The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom which is currently in a slight cooling trend.

It will be interesting to see whether a Modoki type of El Nino occurs in 2018, or not.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.7:

[Sleepy]

ECMWF August plumes.

I guess that the ECMWF is implying that a Modoki type of El Nino is coming.  That said, the first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Temp & Temp Anom profiles, which indicate a relatively cool Eastern Pacific (which would be the case in a Modoki).  The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom which is currently in a slight cooling trend.

It will be interesting to see whether a Modoki type of El Nino occurs in 2018, or not.

Yes, my thoughts as well. The ECMWF July plumes were all running warmer than reality except Nino3 were actual temp was pretty much in the middle of the runs. JAMSTEC/Sintex-F is not updated for August but has been predicting a modoki for a while.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2228.msg158153.html#msg158153
Edit; also adding the url:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

JMA's outlook for August:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html

Back to the 80's yet again, 86-87 was a modoki, followed by a strong El Nino in 87-88.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data thru the week centered on August 8 2018; the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, thru the week ending August 12 2018; the ENSO condition remains neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images show the weekly BoM Nino indices for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, respectively, thru the week ending August 8 2018.  These values indicate that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition:

[gerontocrat]

Back to the 80's yet again, 86-87 was a modoki, followed by a strong El Nino in 87-88.

For those of us who do not have a clue what a Modoki El Nino is......

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

The El Niño Modoki
El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below). Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Hence, the new phenomenon is of interest to the climate community.

The name " El Niño Modoki " was first coined by Prof. Yamagata in various press releases. Researchers of the Climate Variations Research Program of Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) lead by Prof. Yamagata documented this phenomenon for the first time. This phenomenon appears as second dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -2.9:

[wolfpack513]

I’ve been pretty bullish since the big down-welling kelvin wave developed in February but starting to have some doubts.  I don’t know if this 2nd kelvin wave will be enough to kick Niño into gear.  Starting to run out of time....

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA plots issued today and the last two BoM images for the weekly Nino 3.4 & IOD indices respectively, the ENSO remains on the warm side of neutral, but may (or may not) be initiating a warming trend:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8

[AbruptSLR]

Today the BoM issued the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending August 19 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO condition remains on the warm side of neutral, and may (or may not) have initiated a warming trend:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.6: