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Neven

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Hurricane season 2018
« on: January 15, 2018, 09:27:10 PM »
Continued from here: Hurricane season 2017
Compare, compare, compare

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2018, 09:30:45 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2018, 10:04:14 AM »
I'll make a prediction from here in the depth of winter.
We will see as active a season as we just saw and a repeat of this rapid deepening and record setting high cat. lifespan of storms.
The issues between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic have abated so the high shear upper atmosphere environment is reduced meaning the tops won't be being continually knocked off storms as they try to form and the Saharan dust will not be as extensive ( again) as the winds that spread it into the Caribbean ease?
Folk should have focussed on the way the Pacific storms evolved, post 05', knowing that the return of active Atlantic seasons would see these 'new', faster forming, stronger for longer, storms arrive in our basin.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2018, 10:37:06 AM »
The Indian Ocean around Madagascar is havig its third cyclone in recent weeks. La Reunion is going to get clobbered a bit.

JTWC is moving back to the US navy.

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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2018, 06:52:59 PM »
I suspect that we will see a reversal of the 2017 hurricane season.  Namely a more active Pacific and less active Atlantic season than last year.  With neutral ENSO conditions expected this spring, we may experience normal seasons in both basins.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2018, 07:06:57 PM »
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #16

10 knots stronger (85knots) when it hits La Reunion on Thursday
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Paddy

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2018, 09:27:04 AM »
I'm not going to try and predict this hurricane season, but some forecasters are saying it looks likely to be active: http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/12/27/early-forecast-calls-for-active-2018-hurricane-season/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2018, 08:20:57 PM »
The effects of the 2017 Hurricane season are far from over....

450K Customers in Puerto Rico Still Without Power Four Months After Hurricane Maria
Quote
More than four months since Hurricane Maria battered Puerto Rico, nearly half a million customers are still without power, the Army Corps of Engineers said this week.

Roughly 4,000 power restoration personnel are now working to restore the electricity to more than 450,000 customers. That effort will grow in the next few weeks as an additional 1,000 workers, along with hundreds of bucket trucks and other equipment, are being brought in to "accelerate progress," according to a statement released by the Corps.

Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello recently announced plans to privatize the power authority. The Corps has said it expects that the entire island will have power again by May. ...
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-01-26-hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-power-outages-restoration

“Sunday in Puerto Rico
130 days after Maria

Status.pr reports:
*83% power generation

*69% of island has electricity
(1 million customer have had their power restored; about 450,000 remain without power)

*96% of the island has water”
https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/957637275403341824


Edit: 
Here’s What One Day In The Dysfunction Of Restoring Puerto Rico’s Electricity Looks Like
A local congressman was sure a temporary fix would restore power to 10,000 people in Arecibo this weekend. They’re still in darkness.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/nidhiprakash/arecibo-electricity
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 09:17:33 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2018, 10:20:46 PM »
“Something similar happened to us in Bayamón.Our neighborhood (Cerro Gordo,road 830) appeared on PREPA's schedule last week(10 brigades,according to the chart),but no one saw them working the area.“
https://twitter.com/Maraliz0025/status/957662643636105216
Image of a brigade schedule at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2018, 07:05:54 PM »
"If we're giving free water and food, that means that families are not going to supermarkets to buy."

FEMA on the defensive after announcing an end to emergency food and water aid to Puerto Rico in the middle of a humanitarian emergency.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/958378405883531270

FEMA to 'officially shut off' food and water aid to Puerto Rico
Quote
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced Tuesday that it will end free supplies of food and water in Puerto Rico this week as the island's supermarkets and other businesses reopen following Hurricane Maria.

NPR reported Tuesday that FEMA will "officially shut off" aid to the island on Wednesday after providing more than 30 million gallons of drinking water and 60 million meals to its inhabitants.
...
In a statement to The Hill, FEMA's public affairs director William Booher clarified that the agency would continue to assist volunteer agencies and nonprofits with relief efforts in rural areas of Puerto Rico, as well as the territory's government.

"FEMA will continue to support any documented needs and will provide supplies to volunteer agencies and other private nonprofit organizations who are working with households in rural, outlying areas to address ongoing disaster-related needs as power and water is gradually restored," Booher said.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/371347-fema-to-officially-shut-off-food-and-water-aid-to-puerto-rico
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2018, 07:41:16 PM »
FEMA awarded her company $156 million to deliver 30 million meals to Puerto Rico. She was the only employee -- and delivered just 50,000.
“They probably should have gone with someone else"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/960908915989975040
Link to NYT article at the link.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2018, 02:10:05 AM »
A large amount of ocean heat stored in the northern Indian ocean has been transported to the Atlantic and Indonesian regions. The heat content of the western N Pac has increased while the eastern N Pac has lost heat in the tropical region. In the north Atlantic there has been a strong northerly transport of ocean heat.

Therefore, at this time I anticipate a stronger hurricane season in the west Pacific in 2018, a weaker season in the E Pac, a weak season in the N Indian ocean and a weaker, but above average season in the N Atlantic. The N Atlantic will get a strong flow of warm water from south of the equator to make up for the strong northerly transport that has been happening through the winter. There has been an increase in heat content in the south Atlantic for the last 2 years or so. I would have to review a large number of maps to present the details precisely.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2018, 04:19:44 PM »
“Tropical Cyclone #Gita hit #Tonga today with the strength of a Category 4 hurricane, the #Himawari8 geostationary satellite captured the path of the storm over the past 24 hours. Learn more about our international satellite partners in orbit here:  https://goo.gl/BTU7Xw  “
https://mobile.twitter.com/noaasatellites/status/963059622918737923
 Satellite loop at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2018, 07:20:32 PM »
“Here are some photos we were sent from relatives and friends in Tonga. It was a difficult night, and the road to recovery will be long. But we are grateful for our strong communities and faith. #CycloneGita ”
https://twitter.com/350Pacific/status/963157991699636224
Photos at the link.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2018, 09:13:13 PM »
All crops are destroyed, sounds worse than Puerto Rico.

https://www.rt.com/news/418704-tonga-cyclone-parliament-destruction/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2018, 06:38:50 PM »
Puerto Rico, Day 151:
—More than 700,000 people still w/o power (24% of the island)
—Tens of thousands of people still w/o clean water
—Still a humanitarian emergency
Statistics from:  status.pr
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/965204442231472129


Quick report from #PuertoRico: Punta Santiago remains without power 5 months later. Schools close at 1130am because they cannot feed the students. #ChefsForPuertoRico will continue to deliver food and will work on bringing food to schools so they can stay open. @WCKitchen
https://mobile.twitter.com/devilstower/status/964981598444818432
Video from Punta Santiago at the link.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2018, 07:31:07 PM »
This is the nor'eastern that hit the US this weekend. What is left moves further to Europe. With hurricane-speed winds, next weekend.

Alexander555

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2018, 03:05:08 PM »
“Puerto Rico, Day 180:
—More than 200,000 people still w/o power (7% of the island)
—Tens of thousands of people still w/o clean water
—For these people, Hurricane Maria is still a humanitarian emergency”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/975779541468794880


Heartbreaking description of continuing consequences of the outrageously inadequate federal response to the hurricane in Puerto Rico nearly six months ago.

'We are the forgotten people': It's been almost six months since Hurricane Maria, and Puerto Ricans are still dying
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/03/15/politics/puerto-rico-six-month-deaths-sutter-invs/index.html
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2018, 04:05:39 PM »
I confess I'm a bit scared of the consequences of another strong Hurricane in PR.  On one hand all systems are very fragile. I still don't have Internet service other than my mobile. The mobile service is intermittent. Water and power services are mostly up but constantly down. There are tilted power and communications poles everywhere and lose cables everywhere.   

On the other hand many people will be more resilient, including myself. This time around, I'll have a chainsaw, many battery powered utilities like fans and lights, a brand new generator I got from my PPA with the old genny, and we just agreed to invest in a small, but significantly larger than the one I had, solar/batteries set up. Many people are in similar situations.

The government is just as broke but there is a lot of heavy equipment already on the ground that didn't exist before Maria. There are also many organizations and paths to other organizations that didn't exist before Maria or are much better prepared this time around.

We'll see.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2018, 01:54:57 PM »
“Fish News: #Cyclone #MARCUS hits Cat 5. I ain't the kind of dude to ooooh and aaaah over a cyclone that can't be chased (and savored)—but I'll admit it looks pretty good. ”
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/976588096631394304
Image below.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2018, 05:21:58 PM »
“Fish News: #Cyclone #MARCUS hits Cat 5. I ain't the kind of dude to ooooh and aaaah over a cyclone that can't be chased (and savored)—but I'll admit it looks pretty good. ”

But it is this one that is going to do some damage. (Image from JTWC)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2018, 07:39:14 PM »
Houston, Texas:  more Hurricane Harvey aftermath.

Hurricane Harvey’s toxic impact deeper than public told
Quote
In all, reporters catalogued more than 100 Harvey-related toxic releases — on land, in water and in the air. Most were never publicized, and in the case of two of the biggest ones, the extent or potential toxicity of the releases was initially understated.

Only a handful of the industrial spills have been investigated by federal regulators, reporters found.

Texas regulators say they have investigated 89 incidents, but have yet to announce any enforcement actions.

Testing by state and federal regulators of soil and water for contaminants was largely limited to Superfund toxic waste sites.

Based on widespread air monitoring, including flyovers, officials repeatedly assured the public that post-Harvey air pollution posed no health threat. But the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency official in charge now says these general assessments did not necessarily reflect local “hotspots” with potential risk to people.

Regulators alerted the public to dangers from just two, well-publicized toxic disasters: the Arkema chemical plant northeast of Houston that exploded and burned for days, and a nearby dioxin-laden federal Superfund site whose protective cap was damaged by the raging San Jacinto River. ...
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d/Hurricane-Harvey's-toxic-impact-deeper-than-public-told
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2018, 07:25:05 PM »
Puerto Rico Plans to Shutter 283 Schools
Declining enrollments and a persistent budget crisis prompt closures that could displace 60,000 students.
Quote
The government had already closed roughly 170 of its 1,270 schools after the 2017 school year. Officials estimate roughly 26,000 students did not come back after Hurricane Maria. Many teachers on the island say that Keleher and Rosselló are using the devastation of the hurricane to implement privatization efforts that have been proposed for years. ...
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/04/puerto-rico-plans-to-shutter-283-schools/
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #25 on: April 06, 2018, 07:50:52 PM »
Like everything always is, it's complicated.

The Amazingly Horrible Test Scores of Students in Puerto Rico

http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-amazingly-horrible-test-scores-of-students-in-puerto-rico/

The Puertorican public school system is failing the people. Many schools don't even have the capacity of making roll calls. Absenteeism of teacher's and students is a habit. A diploma is more important than actual learning. The big bucks are spent in useless bureaucracy instead of teachers and books.

Yet there are good people. After the Maria some of the first kitchens to open where school cafeterias. Teachers and parents did the heavy lifting cleaning schools and removing debris, only to have their schools closed by the DE.  There are some highly successful specialized schools, but they are the exception not the norm.

Is privatization the answer? I don't know. But it can't get worse. I've always though that decentralization and giving the communities the power over their schools is the way to go. Privatization is a proxy for decentralization but since the DE is keeping all the bureaucracy at the same time it closes schools, I imagine the privatized schools will be even worse, if that is even possible.
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2018, 01:58:21 AM »
Like everything always is, it's complicated.

The Amazingly Horrible Test Scores of Students in Puerto Rico

http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-amazingly-horrible-test-scores-of-students-in-puerto-rico/

The Puertorican public school system is failing the people. Many schools don't even have the capacity of making roll calls. Absenteeism of teacher's and students is a habit. A diploma is more important than actual learning. The big bucks are spent in useless bureaucracy instead of teachers and books.

Yet there are good people. After the Maria some of the first kitchens to open where school cafeterias. Teachers and parents did the heavy lifting cleaning schools and removing debris, only to have their schools closed by the DE.  There are some highly successful specialized schools, but they are the exception not the norm.

Is privatization the answer? I don't know. But it can't get worse. I've always though that decentralization and giving the communities the power over their schools is the way to go. Privatization is a proxy for decentralization but since the DE is keeping all the bureaucracy at the same time it closes schools, I imagine the privatized schools will be even worse, if that is even possible.
Re the bolded:


It can.
It is.


I really believe a child could educate himself or herself with access to the internet, and a partner to get him to a basic reading stage.
If a charter school has filled his head with nonsense he's doomed.


Fight to get some decent teachers & fight against the leeches that find profit potential in illiterate kids.
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charles_oil

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2018, 02:18:54 PM »

http://gcaptain.com/after-worst-hurricane-season-ever-2018-will-be-above-average/?goal=0_f50174ef03-3f4daaa860-139828445&mc_cid=3f4daaa860&mc_eid=6f655bf7d8



Colorado State University’s initial Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast is calling for a slightly above-average 2018 hurricane season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
 
By Brian K. Sullivan (Bloomberg) — After the costliest Atlantic hurricane season in history last year, early forecasts indicate 2018 will be above average.
 
 Look for 14 named storms, and there’s a greater than normal chance of a major system striking the U.S., according to Colorado State University.
Colorado State’s forecast is closely watched. It’s now in its 35th year, and comes after hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria helped drive total losses to more than $215 billion in 2017. However, because it comes so early, the April forecast can be the least accurate, according to Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the report.
“Spring is very volatile,” Klotzbach said. “The changes from April to June can be pretty dramatic.”
 
Seven storms could become hurricanes this year and three major systems may reach Category 3 or stronger on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the forecast. There’s a 63 percent chance the continental U.S. will get hit by a major hurricane, compared with the 20th Century average of 52 percent. ..... continues on link above

oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #28 on: April 07, 2018, 03:59:59 PM »
Considering the performance of last year's April forecast, I think the warning of low reliability of the early forecast is definitely merited.
https://source.colostate.edu/csu-team-predicts-slightly-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season
Quote
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 11 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season... Of those, researchers expect four to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #29 on: April 07, 2018, 07:22:06 PM »
Considering the performance of last year's April forecast, I think the warning of low reliability of the early forecast is definitely merited.
https://source.colostate.edu/csu-team-predicts-slightly-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season
Quote
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 11 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season... Of those, researchers expect four to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength

Their April forecast has modest accuracy.  In the past their predictive ability better matched the observations.  Recently, no so much.  Last year they predicted a below average season.

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/05/colorado-state-university-hurricane-predictions-2018/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2018, 07:34:22 PM »
Just now (April 12)

“BREAKING: A massive power outage is being reported across Puerto Rico, from the southern part of the island to the north.

PREPA says there’s an “event” of the 50900 line which runs north to south

Previous failures of this line have affected most of the 1,473,000 customers”

https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/984482138442600450

Edit: 
Update: “BREAKING: the Puerto Rico Power Authority says a falling tree is to blame for the massive power outage on the island; local media reports 900,000 customers have lost power”
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/984492964134162432

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/puerto-rico-fallen-tree-power-line-leaves-900k-without-power-n865506
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 09:39:23 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2018, 08:15:01 PM »
Could this have an impact on the future hurricane seasons ?  If the current slows down further , maybe more heat will stay at the equator. And the water in the golf of Mexico is already warmer than average for as long i'm watching it.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/slow-motion-ocean-atlantics-circulation-is-weakest-in-1-600-years/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2018, 12:47:42 AM »
Due to their historic impact.

U.S. National Hurricane Center:
Harvey, Irma, Maria & Nate are retired from the Atlantic tropical storm name list by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee, and replaced with Harold, Idalia, Margot, & Nigel. Will first appear on the 2023 list. @NWS @NOAAComms @NHC_Atlantic @NOAA ”
https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/984381793246867456
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2018, 09:51:14 PM »
Puerto Rico’s blackout is now the second largest on record worldwide
Thousands are still without power across the island months after Hurricane Maria struck.
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/13/17229172/puerto-rico-blackout-hurricane-maria
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #34 on: April 18, 2018, 09:20:19 PM »
Puerto Rico loses power island-wide for first time since Hurricane Maria hit U.S. territory
Quote
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- An island-wide blackout hit Puerto Rico on Wednesday as the U.S. territory struggles with an increasingly unstable power grid nearly seven months after Hurricane Maria. Officials said it could take 24 to 36 hours to fully restore power to more than 1.4 million customers as outrage grew across the island about the state of Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority.
...
Angel Figueroa, president of a union that represents power company workers in Puerto Rico, said it appears that a failure on a main line caused the island's entire electrical grid to shut down to protect itself.

Rivera said he worries that such serious power outages are still occurring as the new Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1, approaches.

"If there's a slight storm, we're going to be worse off than we are right now," he said. ...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/puerto-rico-loses-power-island-wide-hurricane-maria-us/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #35 on: April 19, 2018, 01:33:37 PM »
But not quite the entire island.

“Tesla batteries are currently live & delivering power at 662 locations in Puerto Rico. Team is working 24/7 to activate several hundred more. ”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/986746909153869824

Edit: details...
Quote
As we previously reported, some of those locations include very critical services.

For example, Tesla deployed a series of Powerpack systems on the Puerto Rican islands of Vieques and Culebra for a sanitary sewer treatment plant, the Arcadia water pumping station, the Ciudad Dorada elderly community, the Susan Centeno hospital, and the Boys and Girls Club of Vieques.

Furthermore, the automaker’s energy division also deployed a solar+battery system at a hospital in Puerto Rico. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-powerwall-powerpack-puerto-rico-blackout-elon-musk/
« Last Edit: April 19, 2018, 03:46:54 PM by Sigmetnow »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #36 on: April 20, 2018, 11:18:59 AM »
Florida Everglades Still Reeling Months After Hurricane Irma, NASA Says
https://weather.com/science/nature/news/2018-04-18-florida-everglades-trees-hurricane-irma-nasa-damage

NASA Mapping Hurricane Damage to Everglades, Puerto Rico Forests
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/nasa-mapping-hurricane-damage-to-everglades-puerto-forests

Quote
Last spring, NASA researchers flew over the Everglades and Puerto Rico to measure how mangroves and rainforests grow and evolve over time. Five months later, hurricanes Irma and Maria tore through those study areas – creating a unique opportunity to investigate the devastating effects of massive storms on these ecosystems, as well as their gradual recovery.....

.....The view of southeastern Florida, less than three months after Hurricane Irma hit, revealed swaths of leafless trees and broken branches, even uprooted mangrove trees.

“It’s staggering how much was lost. The question is, which areas will regrow and which areas won’t,” said Lola Fatoyinbo, a remote sensing scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and the Florida project’s principal investigator. “This is an opportunity -- with all these data, we can really make a difference in understanding how hurricanes impact Florida’s mangrove ecosystems.”......

.......The store of post-hurricane data – all free and available to the public – is about to grow. G-LiHT flights over Puerto Rico, which was hit by both Hurricane Irma and the Category 4 Hurricane Maria on Sept. 20, are scheduled to start next week.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #37 on: April 20, 2018, 01:11:03 PM »
 We already suspected it because there was no cell phone signal, but as soon as we found out through the solar powered radio that the blackout was general my wife gave the order. Let's buy a battery and a solar panel.

We went to a sound systems store that sells solar components when they are available. Just the day before they announced over facebook that they got their hands on a new shipments of AGM batteries and their prices were very good.

The first thing I noticed  was that even when there was no power, the lights were on and the AC was on. There was no numbing sounds of diesel generators or noxious fumes fouling the air.  The place runs exclusively on solar panels and batteries. The owner later told me that they have been off grid for a year now. I found the battery I needed at a reasonable price with a two year warranty with the store. They had me at hello.

Regrettably, the owner tells me that since the storm they run out of solar panels as soon as they can get them. I needed the panel so I left and  went to an actual solar panel store that just recently opened in my town.

Again, while there was no power anywhere, this store had lights on, AC on and was brimming with customers and employees. The first thing I see when I walk in is a Tesla Powerwall. It is such a beautiful battery that I thought it was for display. However, when I examine it closely the darn thing is connected. It was actually running the store! This turned out to be a good day, even without power.

I think renewables/storage is about to go viral in PR. Reliability of the grid and the certain price hikes that are coming will make the case for solar even better than it already is.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #38 on: April 20, 2018, 02:13:59 PM »
Quote
...NASA Mapping Hurricane Damage to Everglades, Puerto Rico Forests...

You really had to see it to believe it. After the hurricane everything looked black and burned. There was debris literally everywhere. All trees suffered damage. Even ground overgrow was flattened by the wind as if someone mowed the world. I've never seen anything remotely like that.

Will forests recover? As long as there is sunlight and water and no disease trees will grow but trees are not forests. I like to see forests as ecosystems that generate their own climate. Removing a small part of the forest may heal fast because the forest can sustain it's own favorable climate, but remove enough of it and it may take decades or centuries of favorable climate to get the forest back.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #39 on: April 22, 2018, 11:38:04 AM »
The US Navy has tarted up the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at:- http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Looks like double trouble developing in the Indian Ocean.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #40 on: April 23, 2018, 12:51:08 AM »
The Hurricane Season 2017 thread is locked, so I will post these here....

Engaging retelling of the 2017 Atlantic hurricanes as experienced by a U.S. east coast hurricane tracker.

Tracking the Hurricanes: 2017 Part One


Tracking the Hurricanes: 2017 Part Two: Irma, Maria, Nate
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2018, 01:27:29 PM »

FishOutofWater

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2018, 09:57:52 PM »
There's been an exceptional amount of heat transfer from the tropics to the mid latitudes in the Atlantic basin and it was a very cold mid winter offshore of Europe. Deepwater formation in the Labrador sea got cranked up in late February and was intense in March according to the Mercator Ocean profile.

All in all, expect a slow start to the Atlantic season because it's going to take months to build up the heat, but don't be surprised if there's an intense burst of hurricanes in September and October. With all the heat in the temperate and far north Atlantic, the fall cool down will come late.

One of the consequences of low September sea ice levels may be a longer, later Atlantic hurricane season and more blocking highs in the fall over Greenland.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2018, 07:02:20 PM »
Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh camps await new danger: rain
Quote
KUTUPALONG, Bangladesh (AP) — The Rohingya refugees have escaped soldiers and gunfire. They have escaped mobs that stormed through their villages, killing and raping and burning. They have fled Myanmar, their homeland, to find shelter in sprawling refugee camps in neighboring Bangladesh.

Now there's a new danger: rain.

The annual monsoon will soon sweep through the immense camps where some 700,000 Rohingya Muslims have lived since last year, when they poured across the border in search of safety. The clusters of bamboo and plastic huts, built along endless waves of steep hills, are now facing a deluge that, in an average year, dumps anywhere from 40 to 60 centimeters (16 to 24 inches) of rain per month.

"I will not be able to light a fire. The wells will flood and I won't be able to get water. The outhouses will be destroyed. The house might also break down," sobbed Rahana Khatun, 45, who fled Myanmar last year with her husband and five children. "What will happen to us then?" ...
https://apnews.com/amp/1771ebecb99d45d28511a28d7bed044b
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #44 on: May 06, 2018, 03:15:58 AM »
1. Maria caused 18 times more damage in the U.S. territories than the second-costliest hurricane ...

10 Jaw-Dropping Findings from the NHC's Final Hurricane Maria Report
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-10-hurricane-maria-final-report-national-hurricane-center
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #45 on: May 09, 2018, 05:38:35 PM »
“This map shows global #tropical cyclone tracks from 1848-2013. The red circle shows where a subtropical cyclone appears to have formed this week off the Chilean coast. Bizarre. (Map: NOAA) [article:] https://wxch.nl/2Ink2mi  ”

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/994199808532406273
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #46 on: May 14, 2018, 05:58:09 PM »
“4 named storms have formed in the Gulf of Mexico in May on record (since 1851).  National #Hurricane Center has 40% chance of tropical/subtropical development in eastern Gulf in next five days. ”

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/996028118010769410
Satellite GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2018, 04:56:57 PM »
“THE CLOCK IS TICKING”: INSIDE THE WORST U.S. MARITIME DISASTER IN DECADES
A recording salvaged from three miles deep tells the story of the doomed “El Faro,” a cargo ship engulfed by Hurricane Joaquin.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/inside-el-faro-the-worst-us-maritime-disaster-in-decades
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #48 on: May 23, 2018, 02:47:00 PM »
“4 named storms have formed in the Gulf of Mexico in May on record (since 1851).  National #Hurricane Center has 40% chance of tropical/subtropical development in eastern Gulf in next five days. ”

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/996028118010769410
Satellite GIF at the link.

Since 1880, the tropical Atlantic has averaged five tropical storms every 40 years, roughly one every eight years.  The last year to have a storm form in May was 2008.  Only four have grown to hurricane strength, averaging one every 36 years.  The last Atlantic basin hurricane was in 1970.  Only one May hurricane exceeded category one status; Able in 1951 reached category 3. 

Historically, May was more active.  From 1900-1960, eleven tropical storms formed, two of which grew to hurricane strength.  Since 1960, only three tropical storms have formed, one reaching hurricane status.  We actually overdue for a May storm.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/earlyseason.asp

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #49 on: May 23, 2018, 03:58:11 PM »
Hurricane in the Indian Ocean is going to Arabian peninsula.

As of 12:00 UTC May 23, 2018:
Location: 12.0°N 56.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb