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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #100 on: June 02, 2018, 12:59:46 PM »
SO they finally released a bit of mortality data. I did a little something. To this day they stand by 64. This was obvious instantly.

This was obvious instantly insanity.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #101 on: June 02, 2018, 03:08:46 PM »
Yeah, that too, but it was painfully obvious the instant the winds stopped and the sun came out. How this people completely missed that and stood by their numbers defies my understanding.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #102 on: June 03, 2018, 01:06:41 AM »
”We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Why Experts Just Changed Their Forecasts About 2018 Hurricane Season Activity
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/06/02/why-experts-just-changed-their-forecasts-about-2018-hurricane-season-activity/
Image below.
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #103 on: June 03, 2018, 02:56:09 AM »
I thought no self respecting major hurricane would want any of the names on offer this year .. b.c
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #104 on: June 03, 2018, 12:57:09 PM »
“We have about 11,000 projects underway in Puerto Rico”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1003161965533937667
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #105 on: June 03, 2018, 01:06:36 PM »
Amazing.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #106 on: June 03, 2018, 03:16:01 PM »
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #107 on: June 03, 2018, 03:43:23 PM »
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.

No - not necessary. You could instead think about the Victorian principle of "enlightened self-interest" which many of the earlier English industrial pioneers followed, e.g.s Arkwright, Rowntree, Cadbury, often followed later by American industrial pioneers such as Henry Parsons Crowell (Quaker Oats) and Will Keith Kellogg to name but a few. Most were devout Christians of the protestant variety or members of the Society of Friends (Quakers).

To use modern parlance these guys were into win-win (as opposed to Trumpism - I win, you are shafted). They built good workers' housing, schools, health facilities etc knowing that the better the work force and "the condition of the people" the better their profits in the long-run..

Musk is following that path - at relatively little cost these highly effective interventions can only do his business a lot of good - again in the longer-term. It is a pity he is a rare bird - the demand for instant results fuelling greed and stupidity in most cases.

As such, he should be applauded and congratulated - but please not worshipped.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #108 on: June 03, 2018, 04:44:19 PM »
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.

No - not necessary. You could instead think about the Victorian principle of "enlightened self-interest" which many of the earlier English industrial pioneers followed, e.g.s Arkwright, Rowntree, Cadbury, often followed later by American industrial pioneers such as Henry Parsons Crowell (Quaker Oats) and Will Keith Kellogg to name but a few. Most were devout Christians of the protestant variety or members of the Society of Friends (Quakers).

To use modern parlance these guys were into win-win (as opposed to Trumpism - I win, you are shafted). They built good workers' housing, schools, health facilities etc knowing that the better the work force and "the condition of the people" the better their profits in the long-run..

Musk is following that path - at relatively little cost these highly effective interventions can only do his business a lot of good - again in the longer-term. It is a pity he is a rare bird - the demand for instant results fuelling greed and stupidity in most cases.

As such, he should be applauded and congratulated - but please not worshipped.

one of the best post since long, all said in short, wish i could keep things short like that LOL

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #109 on: June 03, 2018, 04:46:01 PM »
Of course. I understand that this is not philanthropy, this is just really smart business that just happens to be great for the common good. I just jest because this makes me so happy. I also acknowledge publicly that this will affect my objectivity with the hopes to keep myself in check.
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #110 on: June 03, 2018, 06:33:40 PM »
He came for the hurricane and found Elongate .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #111 on: June 04, 2018, 12:34:26 PM »
Of course. I understand that this is not philanthropy, this is just really smart business that just happens to be great for the common good. I just jest because this makes me so happy. I also acknowledge publicly that this will affect my objectivity with the hopes to keep myself in check.

Archimid, your support is appreciated!

 “Just wanted to say thanks to all Tesla supporters. I damn well love you.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/998786412970369024
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #112 on: June 04, 2018, 12:38:40 PM »
“A new review of global data on hurricanes shows that since 1980, the number of storms with winds stronger than 200 kilometers per hour (124 mph, or a strong Category 3) have doubled.... “
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02062018/hurricane-season-2018-noaa-storm-forecast-global-warming-atlantic-ocean-temperature-new-category-6

https://mobile.twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1003277981471596544


But, Hurricane Patricia would be Category 7.  Or 8.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/657526655691395072
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #113 on: June 04, 2018, 03:24:54 PM »
The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980.  However, they have chosen to start their analysis from a time of relatively low hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.  NOAA has data back to 1944, and an analysis for the full 75 years indicates no overall trend in major hurricane activity.  Around 1950, the Atlantic basin averaged 4.5 major hurricanes annually.  That number dropped to less than two during the 70s and 80s.  The number of major hurricanes more than doubled from this low to over four annually during the mid 2000s.  Over the past decade, the average annual number of major hurricanes has fallen back down to 2.5.  By carefully choosing their start and end dates, they arrived at their stated conclusion.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #114 on: June 04, 2018, 04:12:40 PM »
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #115 on: June 04, 2018, 05:04:06 PM »
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #116 on: June 04, 2018, 06:48:32 PM »
If you look at the link, it's about hurricanes in the Atlantic. And i think there is a very clear trend. More big hurricanes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #117 on: June 04, 2018, 09:41:28 PM »
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #118 on: June 04, 2018, 11:57:24 PM »
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.

Sure.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean

https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #119 on: June 05, 2018, 03:26:07 PM »
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.

Sure.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean

https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming

 NOT the NUMBER of storms. Your links provide NO data on precise strength of each storm, or the rapidity of their intensification — which are the factors of the original study and what I requested.  The study I posted uses data only available in the years since satellites and hurricane hunter flights made it possible.  So, saying they cherry-picked their data by only using data since 1980 is a false accusation.
 
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #120 on: June 05, 2018, 05:20:37 PM »
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.

Sure.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean

https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming

 NOT the NUMBER of storms. Your links provide NO data on precise strength of each storm, or the rapidity of their intensification — which are the factors of the original study and what I requested.  The study I posted uses data only available in the years since satellites and hurricane hunter flights made it possible.  So, saying they cherry-picked their data by only using data since 1980 is a false accusation.

That is true with regards to that study.  However, other available data shows that the start of their study was a quiet period of hurricane activity, which affected their conclusions.  I never said they cherry-picked.  Rather, I stated that their data was skewed, due to the dataset they used.

Historically, the data does not indicate that hurricanes are getting stronger.  On average, over the past century a category 5 hurricane has formed once every 3.3 years.  We have had three over the past decade, exactly average.   The 2000s decade saw 8 such storms, followed by the 1930s with 6, and the 1960s with 4.  There appears little evidence that wind speed is increasing in these storms.  The highest winds measured were 190 mph by hurricanes Camille in 1969 and Allen in 1980.  Three storms reached 185; Wilma in 2005, Gilbert in 1988, and the Labor Day hurricane of 1935.

ghoti

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #121 on: June 05, 2018, 05:51:48 PM »
Now you switch to counting category 5 storms only when major storms are cat 3+. Why do I suspect the numbers don't work as well if you count major storms? And only Atlantic storms are considered?

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #122 on: June 05, 2018, 06:44:35 PM »
Now you switch to counting category 5 storms only when major storms are cat 3+. Why do I suspect the numbers don't work as well if you count major storms? And only Atlantic storms are considered?

Probably because only the Atlantic showed the increase over the time period that they sought.  I already showed that the numbers don't work out as well for major storms, if the time period before their dataset is included.  All in all, the report is trying to make a claim that is not justified.

ghoti

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #123 on: June 06, 2018, 10:03:47 PM »
Hurricanes slow their roll around the world
Storms' slowdown means more rain, and potentially more damage, for populated areas.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5.

The study, published on 6 June in Nature, is the first to analyse hurricane speeds globally. It finds that the speed at which tropical cyclones moved across the planet slowed by about 10% between 1949 and 2016.

aperson

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #124 on: June 07, 2018, 05:23:54 AM »
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5.

Good read. Here's figure 3 which tells the story. Effect size was significant over land but was not significant over water, and effect strength is different in each basin.

computer janitor by trade

sidd

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #125 on: June 07, 2018, 10:14:13 AM »
Perhaps slower motion of hurricances is related to the weakend gradient between polar and tropical temperatures as poles warm quicker.

sidd

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #126 on: June 12, 2018, 05:04:16 PM »
Nice article by Masters.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-hurricane-rainfall-expected-increase-warmer-world
Quote
Conclusion

Though there is still much work to be done quantifying the future risk from rainier hurricanes in a warmer world, the four papers published linking the catastrophic floods of Hurricane Harvey to global warming should serve as a strong wake-up call that we may already be experiencing a heightened risk of such disasters due to human-caused climate change. It doesn’t take much of a shift in the peak of a bell-shaped curve encompassing the range of precipitation amounts we expect from future storms to cause very significant changes in the odds of low-probability, high impact events at the tail end of the distribution, and the flood defense systems of the world are designed for the rains of the 20th-century climate, not the new more extreme rainfalls we are already observing in the warming 21st-century climate.

The conclusion of van Oldenborgh et al. 2017, Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 is worth paying attention to: “And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #127 on: June 15, 2018, 09:05:11 PM »
FEMA Blamed Delays In Puerto Rico On Maria; Agency Records Tell Another Story
Quote
...FEMA and the federal government failed on multiple fronts to help the devastated island recover.

NPR and the PBS series Frontline examined hundreds of pages of internal documents and emails. Rather than a well-orchestrated effort, they paint a picture of a relief agency in chaos, struggling with key contracts, basic supplies and even its own workforce.”
...
Hours after NPR and FRONTLINE published these findings, Democratic lawmakers from the House and Senate introduced a bill to create an independent commission to investigate the "flawed" federal response in Puerto Rico. They noted the "botched FEMA contracts" in calling for the commission. The legislation also calls for an examination of the island's death toll, and whether Puerto Rico was treated differently than Texas and Florida were after hurricanes last year, as NPR and FRONTLINE found. ...
https://www.npr.org/2018/06/14/608588161/fema-blamed-delays-in-puerto-rico-on-maria-agency-records-tell-another-story
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #128 on: June 27, 2018, 10:07:19 PM »
“Big day for Puerto Rico:

✔️ @Ocasio2018 is about to join Congress, elected on a platform to rebuild the island with 100% renewable energy
✔️ A new bill was just submitted to Congress to make Puerto Rico the 51st state”

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1012034585352433665


https://grist.org/article/with-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-victory-congress-will-likely-gain-a-new-climate-champion/
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #129 on: June 30, 2018, 09:56:10 PM »
Early typhoon for South Korea.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #130 on: July 01, 2018, 09:30:18 PM »
“The eastern Pacific continues at a record pace as Fabio has formed overnight- it is the earliest 6th tropical storm on record for the basin by 2 days over 1985!”
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1013378169632710659
Satellite GIF at the link.

NHC graphic below.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #131 on: July 02, 2018, 03:10:57 AM »
Meanwhile, all quiet on the Atlantic front.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #132 on: July 02, 2018, 03:21:01 AM »
Saharan Dust Spreading Hazy Skies Across Caribbean and May Reach Texas By This Weekend

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-06-27-saharan-dust-africa-caribbean-texas

Quote
Dust from the Sahara Desert has spread across the Caribbean this week and may funnel its way into Texas by the weekend.

The massive plume of Saharan dust stretched from Africa into the Caribbean on Wednesday. You can see the plume in this NASA model simulation illustrating aerosols in the atmosphere, in this case, Saharan dust.

I believe this dust may play a part on the quiet. It is certainly uncomfortable. It makes it hard to breath, even if you are healthy. The dust irritates the eyes and people with allergies hate it. You can see it in the air. It is weird. It is not new, but it is particularly bad this year.
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Susan Anderson

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #133 on: July 03, 2018, 05:16:54 AM »
Apologies as this wanders a mite off topic, but the topic of dust and its cooling effect and interference with the north Atlantic tropical season overlaps with a lot of other material.

EarthObservatory and Wunderground have excellent posts on the dust and fires and heat. Just looked at GOES-16 too (different viewpoint): http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16. I strongly recommend people take a look at the originals. Interesting materials, particularly the Wunderground overview. They appeared on my personal radar within an hour of each other, as is often the case with EarthObservatory material which is expanded into other weather-related and climate-related material.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dangerous-US-Pollution-Event-Heat-Wave-African-Dust-and-Fires

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92358&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid Here Comes the Saharan Dust July 1, 2018




https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=92373&eocn=home&eoci=nh County Fire Lights Up the Night



Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #134 on: July 03, 2018, 02:57:52 PM »
The dust combing with cooler ocean waters and the possibility of an El Nino forming has led experts at Colorado State University and the Weather Channel to lower their forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #135 on: July 03, 2018, 03:46:05 PM »
The dust should contribute to the low sst. Also at the surface  it feels as if the dust also dries the air. I imagine it has a similar effect at higher altitudes.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #136 on: July 03, 2018, 07:12:04 PM »
“NASA's GPM Satellite Sees #Fabio Strengthening into a Hurricane
NASA's  GPM core observatory satellite flew above Tropical Storm Fabio in the eastern Pacific Ocean as the storm was quickly strengthening into a hurricane. ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nasahurricane/status/1013846477670682624
Image below.

NHC says:
...FABIO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

NHC gives the persistent storms that have been pounding New orleans/Louisiana with flooding a less than 40% chance of developing into a tropical system.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/louisiana/articles/2018-07-03/heavy-rains-prompt-fears-of-flooding-in-new-orleans
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #137 on: July 04, 2018, 08:29:59 PM »
...
NHC gives the persistent storms that have been pounding New orleans/Louisiana with flooding a less than 40% chance of developing into a tropical system.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/louisiana/articles/2018-07-03/heavy-rains-prompt-fears-of-flooding-in-new-orleans

System has moved over Houston.  Going nowhere fast.

City of Houston:
7/4/18, 11:40 AM
“AVOID TRAVELING IN HOUSTON AREA UNTIL THE ROADS CLEAR! Many streets have high water. Stay in until later please! #TurnAroundDontDrown #houwx #HappyFourthOfJuly #IndependenceDay”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014534390083399680

Image below from Storm Radar app.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #138 on: July 04, 2018, 08:36:34 PM »
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #139 on: July 04, 2018, 09:16:06 PM »
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).

I agree.  Plus the psychological component:  we are accustomed to think about risk when a hurricane or tropical storm is forecast, but generally not when it’s “just rain.”


More from Houston twitter:
“Attention Riders: METRO bus and rail service impacted by flash flooding. METRORail Red Line affected south of Smithlands. Green Line suspended. Delays and detours on various routes are in effect. Please stay put in a safe place while storm passes.”

“Alert Houston: Special Flood Alert for Westbury Residents...”

“#BREAKING @FreedomOverTX Festival and concerts cancelled due to weather.  Fireworks show will go on. Mayor @SylvesterTurner will continue to remain at @HoustonOEM to monitor the rain and flooding. Tickets will be refunded. #HouWX #HouNews”

“Even though the @FreedomOverTX fireworks will go on as planned, NO ONE is allowed on the fairgrounds or near the festivities. The area along Allen Parkway and Sabine will remain closed. Please stay home and stay safe. #Breakingnews #HouNews #houwx”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014570740660756480
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #140 on: July 04, 2018, 09:20:22 PM »
System has moved over Houston.  Going nowhere fast.

City of Houston:
7/4/18, 11:40 AM
“AVOID TRAVELING IN HOUSTON AREA UNTIL THE ROADS CLEAR! Many streets have high water. Stay in until later please! #TurnAroundDontDrown #houwx #HappyFourthOfJuly #IndependenceDay”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014534390083399680

Image below from Storm Radar app.
I honestly thought for a moment this was some old post about Harvey.

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #141 on: July 04, 2018, 09:34:54 PM »
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).

I agree.  Plus the psychological component:  we are accustomed to think about risk when a hurricane or tropical storm is forecast, but generally not when it’s “just rain.”


More from Houston twitter:
“Attention Riders: METRO bus and rail service impacted by flash flooding. METRORail Red Line affected south of Smithlands. Green Line suspended. Delays and detours on various routes are in effect. Please stay put in a safe place while storm passes.”

“Alert Houston: Special Flood Alert for Westbury Residents...”

“#BREAKING @FreedomOverTX Festival and concerts cancelled due to weather.  Fireworks show will go on. Mayor @SylvesterTurner will continue to remain at @HoustonOEM to monitor the rain and flooding. Tickets will be refunded. #HouWX #HouNews”

“Even though the @FreedomOverTX fireworks will go on as planned, NO ONE is allowed on the fairgrounds or near the festivities. The area along Allen Parkway and Sabine will remain closed. Please stay home and stay safe. #Breakingnews #HouNews #houwx”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014570740660756480

There has been much speculation about warming effects on tropical activity.  To date, there is no agreed upon result.  I tend to side with those predicting greater storm numbers, but of less intensity.  The warmer waters should generate more storms.  Storm strength is determined by atmospheric activity, largely unaffected by water temps.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #142 on: July 04, 2018, 09:46:58 PM »
The Atlantic season is kicking in.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #143 on: July 04, 2018, 09:50:34 PM »
Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #144 on: July 04, 2018, 10:03:40 PM »
Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #145 on: July 05, 2018, 12:33:16 AM »
GW also increases windshear, and that tends to destroy cyclones in the Atlantic basin.

So in fact numbers of hurricanes (cyclones in the Atlantic) are likely to stay the same or go down.

Elsewhere, both numbers and intensity are already increasing, iirc.
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #146 on: July 05, 2018, 01:16:36 AM »
West Pacific Tropical Storm ’Maria’ Forms Near Guam; Why This Name is Still Being Used
Quote
​​​​​​WHY DID THE NAME 'MARIA' REAPPEAR?

The Hurricane Maria that caused catastrophic damage in Puerto Rico had its name retired earlier this year due to the amount and severity of damage on the U.S. island territory.

But that name only got retired in a very small part of the world – just in the Atlantic Ocean. There are 12 other basins in the world that can have the same names.  Even 2017's catastrophic Maria did not end up causing a global retirement for the name.

Usually, names vary quite a bit in different parts of the world due to language and preference differences, but the western Pacific is usually a hodgepodge of names. This is because of how names are chosen in that basin. ...
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-04-western-pacific-tropical-storm-typhoon-maria.html
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #147 on: July 05, 2018, 06:23:44 AM »
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #148 on: July 05, 2018, 03:25:21 PM »
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

Correct.  But since our environment is not void of shear, to ignore its effects is silly.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #149 on: July 05, 2018, 04:46:31 PM »
Daniel, I am confused about what your position is.

You have said, "I tend to side with those predicting greater storm numbers."

But now you are pointing out (rightly) the importance of wind shear, which should reduce the number of storms.

This seems to be a contradiction, but perhaps I'm missing some nuance?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."