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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #50 on: May 23, 2018, 07:56:48 PM »
Sagar Pounds Somalia; New Cyclone May Threaten Oman
Quote
Somalia's strongest and westernmost tropical cyclone on record

Only three tropical cyclones have tracked into the western Gulf of Aden in historical records dating to 1966. Sagar’s landfall was the westernmost of the three, and its top sustained winds at landfall were the highest.

Another tropical cyclone may affect the Arabian Sea this week
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/sagar-pounds-somalia-new-cyclone-may-threaten-oman
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #51 on: May 23, 2018, 09:04:16 PM »

Another tropical cyclone may affect the Arabian Sea this week
JTWC says not maybe but definite - http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #52 on: May 23, 2018, 09:12:49 PM »
Something for Mar-el-Largo?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #53 on: May 23, 2018, 09:13:15 PM »
This may be rushing things a bit.  But weather watchers have had their eye on this potential storm for a week.

NHC Atlantic Ops:  800 AM: new Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued- There is a 60% chance of a subtropical or tropical depression forming in the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Heavy rain is the main threat for now. 
Full details: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Quote
... a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/999258984950501376
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #54 on: May 23, 2018, 09:17:55 PM »
re the above .. if you like a beautiful storm in an unusual place .. check out today's worldview of the Arabian Gulf , b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #55 on: May 23, 2018, 09:30:52 PM »
Florida has been remarkably rainy over the past week, so this much additional rain (plus a holiday weekend) suggest dangerous conditions ahead from even a “minor” tropical storm.

Image: Next 7 days precipitation forecast.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #56 on: May 24, 2018, 12:33:39 AM »
re the above .. if you like a beautiful storm in an unusual place .. check out today's worldview of the Arabian Gulf , b.c.
Storm Mekunu is really beautiful... It is getting stronger. Winds will reach about 50 m/s. Quite rare cyclone power for this place.

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #57 on: May 24, 2018, 02:59:19 PM »
Florida has been remarkably rainy over the past week, so this much additional rain (plus a holiday weekend) suggest dangerous conditions ahead from even a “minor” tropical storm.

Image: Next 7 days precipitation forecast.

The recent rain in Florida was much needed, as they were suffering through a mild drought.  The US DoA just recently downgraded Florida to drought-free.  The rest of the gulf coast is still rain-starved, and in need of relief.  Any tropical storm will generate localized "dangerous conditions."  However, this will not be exacerbated by recent weather conditions.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #58 on: May 24, 2018, 03:41:12 PM »
“While it's not uncommon for tropical systems to form in May...It is uncommon to see one develop in the Gulf as is currently forecast by @NWSNHC

The only other one was Arlene in 1959”
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/999250720279973888

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #59 on: May 24, 2018, 03:42:36 PM »
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #60 on: May 24, 2018, 05:44:37 PM »
I am curious why we don't see tropical systems in the two areas shown on the attached.  Why everywhere else there is open water far enough away from the equator to generate spin, but not here?


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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #61 on: May 24, 2018, 06:07:43 PM »
You never see hurricanes in the 10 deg S region off South America because that is in the the east Pacific cold tongue, the currents that bring polar waters into the region.  Sea surface temperatures are too cold to maintain strong convection. Currently at 90W, the 10degS temperature is 25, versus 29 at 10degN. I would expect that the same is true of the Atlantic. 

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #62 on: May 24, 2018, 06:26:02 PM »
Current temperature data

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #63 on: May 24, 2018, 10:01:17 PM »
In 2018, Sara replaces 2012's Sandy.

The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names List Includes One New Name
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-24-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-names-list
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #64 on: May 24, 2018, 10:04:21 PM »
I am curious why we don't see tropical systems in the two areas shown on the attached.  Why everywhere else there is open water far enough away from the equator to generate spin, but not here?


More here, in case you missed it:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg153567.html#msg153567
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #65 on: May 25, 2018, 09:58:49 AM »
Last information about storm Mekunu.

As of 06:00 UTC May 25, 2018:
Location: 15.7°N 54.6°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb

Location is 150 km SSE from Salalah and the storm is moving right to this city.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #66 on: May 25, 2018, 10:55:38 AM »
Cyclone Mekunu is going to do some damage.

Go to robertscribbler.com for a discussion on how unusual this and the previous hurricane in the area are, and on the potential impact - which could be very high.

« Last Edit: May 25, 2018, 11:10:08 AM by gerontocrat »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #67 on: May 25, 2018, 01:46:07 PM »
Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will make landfall within hours in southwest Oman.
Mekunu will likely landfall at Category 2 intensity, a first in the satellite era in southwest Oman.

“Wind, rain already lashing the coast as #Tropical Cyclone #Mekunu nears historic Cat. 2 landfall in southwest #Oman. “
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/999973855362932736
Image below.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Nears Historic Category 2 Landfall Near Salalah, Oman With Life-Threatening Flooding, Damaging Winds, Storm Surge
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-23-tropical-cyclone-mekunu-oman-yemen-arabian-sea
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #68 on: May 25, 2018, 07:32:32 PM »
Mekunu will likely landfall at Category 2 intensity, a first in the satellite era in southwest Oman.
According to the latest data, Mekunu reached Category 3.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #69 on: May 25, 2018, 07:51:03 PM »
To clarify, both Gonu (2007) and Phet (2010) made landfall in Oman at Category 3 strength but they hit in the eastern part of the country..

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #70 on: May 25, 2018, 07:59:49 PM »
Looks like the US south coast is going to get it's first cat 1 hurricane of the year near New Orleans.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #71 on: May 25, 2018, 08:32:44 PM »
“FIVE YEARS of rain in ONE DAY. This is not normal.”

“Mekunu is about 12 hours from a direct hit on Salalah, Oman -- a city of 200,000 people.
Sustained winds currently estimated at 115mph (185kph). About 15 inches (400mm) of total rainfall expected -- five years' worth.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000068638077046784
Image below.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #72 on: May 25, 2018, 09:07:57 PM »
“FIVE YEARS of rain in ONE DAY. This is not normal.”

“Mekunu is about 12 hours from a direct hit on Salalah, Oman -- a city of 200,000 people.
Sustained winds currently estimated at 115mph (185kph). About 15 inches (400mm) of total rainfall expected -- five years' worth.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000068638077046784
Image below.
Is western Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea starting to produce cyclones more often, or is it just my imagination? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chapala was just three years ago and these have been rare systems there previously. Probably it's still impossible to say either way and I don't remember anything special of climate models about this area.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #73 on: May 25, 2018, 09:45:11 PM »
“In the past 120 yrs, just 5 hurricane-strength cyclones have made landfall in Oman—1898, 1959, 2007, 2010—and today. (Chapala, in 2015, was the last to hit the Arabian Peninsula—and the only one ever to hit Yemen)
So... 6 total in this part of the world, 4 in the past 11 years.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000069103158267905

“By the end of the century, @MIT research suggests that this trend toward more frequent cyclones in the Arabian Peninsula could spread to the Persian Gulf -- where there has never been a hurricane-strength storm in recorded history.
http://news.mit.edu/2015/grey-swan-cyclones-storm-surge-0831  “

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000070894340005888

Live blog from Oman -- the latest on #MekunuCyclone:
http://timesofoman.com/article/135085

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000072776793968640
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #74 on: May 25, 2018, 10:02:31 PM »
And here’s the first Atlantic system of the season:  Alberto.

“2pm Tropical Update: Alberto has been nearly stationary but a general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts 4-8 inches will be possible across the FL Keys this weekend. #keyswx #flwx”
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/1000074916383735808
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #75 on: May 25, 2018, 10:43:09 PM »
Mekunu notched up an extra 10 knots to 100 knots (125 kmh) of sustained winds, gusts to 125 knots (230 kmh), and wave height 32 feet, 10 metres, before hitting land.

JTWC  says:-
Quote
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 251715Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 7-NM EYE. THE
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE IN BOTH INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS),
SLIGHTLY BELOW A 251428Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KTS. TC 02A IS NOW
LESS THAN 30NM FROM THE OMANI COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
SALALAH ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 45 KT RANGE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING UP
TO 55-60 KTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 26/00Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN AS A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE DRY,
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN
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Susan Anderson

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #76 on: May 25, 2018, 11:25:28 PM »
For updated information on tropical storms, extreme weather, and other environmental issues, I recommend Wunderground's Category 6 articles and comment sections (main articles by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, comments by meteorologists and weather-interested others.

Quote
We’ll have a new post on Alberto by 6 pm EDT. See our post* from earlier Friday morning for an update on Cyclone Mekenu, which was nearing a potentially disastrous landfall in Oman as a Category 3 storm.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/subtropical-storm-alberto-forms-western-caribbean

*https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-3-mekunu-making-potentially-devastating-landfall-oman

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #77 on: May 26, 2018, 09:24:18 PM »
U.S. Gulf-state governors are taking STS Alberto seriously.

Florida, Mississippi Governors Declare States of Emergency as Subtropical Storm Alberto Nears, Gulf Coast Prepares
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-05-25-subtropical-storm-alberto-impacts-preparations
“New Orleanians were expected to stock their emergency kits this weekend as the city's residents enjoy a partial tax break on any supplies they buy for hurricane preparedness, the Associated Press reported. The tax break applies for up to $1,500 of qualifying supplies purchased Saturday and Sunday; residents will pay 3 percent tax on those items instead of the usual 5 percent, the report added.”

NWS Key West notes:
“13.08 inches of rain have fallen at #KeyWest so far in May, already surpassing the monthly record of 13.01 inches, set in May 1904.  Therefore, May 2018 is now the wettest May *ON RECORD* at #KeyWest, with 6 days left in the month. Rainfall records for #KeyWest date back to 1871.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/1000180168693108738
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #78 on: May 26, 2018, 11:05:52 PM »
From the nitpickers camp, 100 knots are 185 km/h. And I really hope the Oman population gets out of this cyclone with as little damage as possible.

Xulonn

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #79 on: May 27, 2018, 01:46:18 AM »
I'm a retired American expat who has lived in Boquete, Panama for nearly 6.5 years.  Boquete sits in a rainforest valley at about 3,200' (975m) elevation on the eastern slopes of 11,400' (3,474m) Volcan Baru, the tallest mountain in Panama.  We are also about halfway down from the ~8,000' (2,438m) peaks of the Cordillera de Talamanca mountain range - the "continental divide" that separates us from the Caribbean side. 

I've been trying to get a handle on our climate/weather by monitoring the local Weather Underground Palmira/Boquete PWS (Personal Weather Station), which is owned by a friend who lives just up the hill from my casita.  I also monitor the nullschool dynamic global wind map, Atlantic tropics synoptic chart, and satellite IR cloud images.  It appears that the north-south seasonal movement of the ITCZ and it's Monsoon Trough is not the only factor that controls our rainy season (April - November) and dry season (December - March) . 

The biggest clue for me for when we get a really wet spell is the "bending" of the trade winds to the northwest rather than blasting over the mountains from Bocas del Toro on the Caribbean is a major factor.  I think it is possible that if the patterns of the number and intensity tropical of tropical cyclones originating in the western Caribbean changes due to AGW/CC, that will affect weather patterns and climate here in central America.

The trades in the western Caribbean have been flowing to the NW for a couple of weeks now, and are now feeding STS Alberto, which is even drawing in Pacific moisture over Nicaragua.  Pacific moisture is flowing over Panama from the SW, bringing heavy rains and T-storms almost every day lately.   

In the past two weeks, we've had over 30" (768mm) of rain here, but fortunately, with the rugged topography, porous volcanic soil in this area, and many big roadside drainage ditches, we barely have puddles, much less flooding.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #80 on: May 27, 2018, 05:43:11 PM »
Cyclone shuts Oman water production plant
Quote
Sembcorp Salalah Water and Power Co SSPW.OM, which operates an electricity generation and seawater desalination plant in Oman, said its water production plant had been temporarily shut down because of rough seas as a result of a tropical storm.

Cyclone Mekunu hit southern Yemen and the coast of neighboring Oman over the weekend, leaving several dead and others missing.

The company said its preliminary assessment is that the impact is not expected to be material, however the “total impact of the cyclone on plant operations cannot yet be precisely assessed at this point in time.” ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oman-weather-companies/cyclone-shuts-sembcorp-salalah-water-production-plant-idUSKCN1IS04L

Image notes:  General view after Cyclone Mekunu in Salalah, Oman May 26 2018. Oman News Agency/Handout via REUTERS
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #81 on: May 28, 2018, 11:29:52 PM »
“FRONTLINE and NPR investigate the humanitarian and economic crisis in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, examining how the federal response, Wall Street and years of neglect have left the island struggling to survive.”

FEMA’s response. Restoring the power grid. “Blue roofs.”  The history of Puerto Rico debt bonds.

Video, 54 minutes.  “Blackout in Puerto Rico”

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/blackout-in-puerto-rico/

Other related videos also at the link.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 11:47:46 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #82 on: May 28, 2018, 11:34:15 PM »
While I appreciate the effort by organizations like NPR, I think the biggest problem is the state government, not the federal response or wall street. No amount of federal dollars can overcome the inefficiency and corruption of the Puertorican government.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #83 on: May 28, 2018, 11:55:14 PM »
While I appreciate the effort by organizations like NPR, I think the biggest problem is the state government, not the federal response or wall street. No amount of federal dollars can overcome the inefficiency and corruption of the Puertorican government.

But the video makes it pretty clear that Wall Street was actively encouraging PR’s bad financial management.  If, instead, hard choices about the debt had been made years ago, PR would be in a different situation today. (Maybe better, maybe worse.)  Regardless, FEMA is supposed to be ready and able to help, and it clearly was not.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #84 on: May 29, 2018, 01:14:59 AM »
Quote
But the video makes it pretty clear that Wall Street was actively encouraging PR’s bad financial management.
 

It takes two to tango. The politicians that made these deals with wall street made millions out of them.

Quote
If, instead, hard choices about the debt had been made years ago, PR would be in a different situation today. (Maybe better, maybe worse.)

I've been following the debt decisions of the Puertorican government for years. What hey did is exactly the same thing world, nation and local leaders are doing with climate change. They knew the debt was a problem and it was not sustainable, but because it was a problem for the future they kicked the can down the road. 

Now the people pay the price while the ones who failed in their duties live well out of the money they stole.  That's where the analogy breaks tho. With climate change there will be no winners. The ones that failed their responsibilities will pay as much as the people.

Quote
Regardless, FEMA is supposed to be ready and able to help, and it clearly was not.

No one was prepared for something like this.Hopefully the next go around will be much better and far into the future. Sadly SSTA's and crazy jetstreams indicate the next one is probably around the corner.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #85 on: May 29, 2018, 07:10:01 PM »
Puerto Rico hurricane death toll 70 times higher than official government estimate, says study

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/389689-study-puerto-rico-hurricane-death-toll-was-70-times-higher-than

Quote
The study found that the mortality rate increased by 62 percent in the final months of 2017 when compared to the same time period in 2016. In total, the researchers calculated that 4,645 more people died in the final months of 2017 than in the previous time frame a year prior.

The Puerto Rican government says 64. They were very confident on the low number of deaths and their decision making processed followed the guidance given by their number. Judging by what I saw, it was very obviously more than 64.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #86 on: May 29, 2018, 11:55:45 PM »
Alberto

“Not something you see every day -- in fact this is officially the first tropical or subtropical cyclone in Alabama in May during the radar era or in the record prior (per https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.html ; historical data caveats apply) #Alberto #alwx ... “
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1001507631960350721
Radar GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #87 on: May 30, 2018, 01:13:09 PM »
Puerto Rico hurricane death toll 70 times higher than official government estimate, says study
...
The Puerto Rican government says 64. They were very confident on the low number of deaths and their decision making processed followed the guidance given by their number. Judging by what I saw, it was very obviously more than 64.


The top levels of government were determined to put the best possible spin on this tragedy, to save face.  But everyone on the ground knew things were very, very bad.
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As a storm, Maria achieved a lot of “worsts”. It was one of the strongest hurricanes ever to make landfall in the United States. It caused the largest blackout in U.S. history and the second largest in world history. The loss of power meant many Puerto Ricans had to struggle for basic necessities — the storm shuttered hospitals and restricted access to fresh food and clean water for millions of people. In some cases, people resorted to drinking water from streams contaminated with toxic waste and raw sewage — simply because there was no other option. The result was one of the worst humanitarian crises in U.S. history.

“Interruption of medical care was the primary cause of sustained high mortality rates in the months after the hurricane,” wrote the study’s authors. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the island since the storm, one of the largest mass migrations in recent U.S. history — a possible preview of the kinds of shocks that might occur more frequently as climate change supercharges storms.

These conditions have been widely reported for months, but the federal government’s response has yet to match the scale of the challenge — leading to preventable deaths. The results of the new study “underscore the inattention of the U.S. government to the frail infrastructure of Puerto Rico,” according to its authors.

On his only visit to post-storm Puerto Rico back in October, President Donald Trump praised his administration’s response, saying that Puerto Ricans should be “proud” that the death toll wasn’t as large as “a real catastrophe like Katrina.”

The new study means that Maria is now the deadliest hurricane since 1900 in the United States, when a hurricane killed 8,000 people in Galveston, Texas. Hurricane Katrina’s official death toll was 1,833 people, though follow-up surveys conducted in the years following the 2005 storm showed that hundreds more likely died. There have been previous efforts at estimating the true scale of Maria’s death toll, but the Harvard survey is the most comprehensive so far. The truth is, we’ll probably never know exactly how many people died because of Hurricane Maria.

In a series of tweets in Spanish and English, San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, responded to the study’s findings. “It took too long to understand the need for an appropriate response was NOT about politics but about saving lives,” she wrote. “Now will the government believe it?”
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-maria-was-so-much-worse-than-we-thought/amp/
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #88 on: May 30, 2018, 02:49:29 PM »
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The top levels of government were determined to put the best possible spin on this tragedy, to save face.

Correct, but I don't believe they could have given an accurate number even if they wanted to. There was complete chaos and complete breakdown of communications. That alone should have thrown doubt into even the most accurate and well functioning bureaucracies.  The correct attitude should have been "we just don't know" and from there estimate damages based on other disasters of similar magnitude until information got sorted out.

However enter Donald Trump, a fool blinded by life long privilege. He probably requested the bad news to be suppressed because in his pitiful experience a positive attitude solves all problems like magic. And that is true in the world of privilege, but not in the natural world. Where I bet trump corruption really shine through is in the contract awards. I bet ya all his little corrupt friends got all the inside scoops to guarantee contracts.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #89 on: May 30, 2018, 08:46:22 PM »
Looks like the asian typhoon season is kicking in. But still a week to go.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #90 on: May 30, 2018, 08:48:03 PM »
Archimid, is the entire island already having power ?

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #91 on: May 30, 2018, 11:03:35 PM »
Yes, I think greater than 99% of it. There are occasional blackouts, but they are just part of the routine.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #92 on: May 31, 2018, 01:18:30 AM »
Alberto:

“There’s a tropical cyclone about to make landfall on Chicago. ...”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1001935236643553281

    “Only 8 known tropical cyclones have passed within 100 miles of where #Alberto is at as of 1930Z today. None have ever passed over #LakeMichigan, but the closest was Candy 1968 (~40mi away). Will Alberto be the first to make lakefall there?? @UMiamiRSMAS @capitalweather ”
     https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1001909048302764033
     Radar GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #93 on: May 31, 2018, 07:10:41 PM »
Unusual to see a tropical system survive a trip this far from the coast.  Speaks to the record warmth recently in the midwest, and the very large, very moist air mass pumped up from the south.

NWS WPC:  “After spending two days over land and traveled more than 700 miles inland, #Alberto continues to maintain a compact and well-defined circulation with a symmetric rainbands spiraling around the center. ”
https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1001937166421905408
Video at the link: satellite follows the storm from the Gulf coast through Wednesday.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #94 on: May 31, 2018, 07:18:29 PM »
Wow. How is that possible? What is feeding it?
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #95 on: May 31, 2018, 08:48:24 PM »
It was never a warm core tropical storm so the usual behaviour at landfall wasn't seen. The forces driving the storm continued as expected and predicted.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #96 on: May 31, 2018, 10:53:51 PM »
It was never a warm core tropical storm so the usual behaviour at landfall wasn't seen. The forces driving the storm continued as expected and predicted.

It certainly was a warm core tropical storm at some points during its lifespan. NHC classified it as tropical around TN (see: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAWPCAT1+shtml/300235.shtml) and had it degrade into an extratropical cyclone and subsequent frontal wave over Michigan.


(source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensusgfs/fcst/archive/18053112/20.html#diag1)


This tweet from TropicalTidbits maintainer Levi Cowan provides some insight into how Alberto was able to maintain a warm core structure across land so effectively:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1001894726633652224

"The maintenance of #Alberto over #Indiana is pretty neat. Model analysis shows a vertical profile with moist, daytime-heated boundary layer, CAPE, deep moisture, and uniform zero-shear flow throughout the troposphere. This environment can actually sustain a tropical cyclone."
« Last Edit: May 31, 2018, 11:00:16 PM by aperson »
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #97 on: June 01, 2018, 03:16:38 AM »
I notice something tropical heading for Texas @ 14 days out in the GFS forecast tonight . Something like Alberto was often appearing on GFS from this far out. Worth keeping an eye out for ? b.c.
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #98 on: June 02, 2018, 04:22:41 AM »
Hurricane season starts today, and Trump still hasn’t learned from his deadliest blunder — Hurricane Maria
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...And with Hurricane Season 2018 beginning today, there’s still uncertainty about how prepared this administration is for another storm. Puerto Rico’s power authority announced yesterday that it may take another two months to get power back completely on the island, and officials say it’s likely that the electrical grid will crash again with the next hurricane.

On top of that, FEMA is going through a “reorganization,” Bloomberg reported last week, and several key leadership roles are still vacant or temporarily filled.

“What the impacts from the 2017 disasters show is that there is also still work to do in order to build a culture of preparedness across the country at all levels of government, including improved resilience among our critical infrastructure,” FEMA wrote to Grist in an email.
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-season-starts-today-and-trump-still-hasnt-learned-from-his-deadliest-blunder-hurricane-maria/
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #99 on: June 02, 2018, 04:42:13 AM »
SO they finally released a bit of mortality data. I did a little something. To this day they stand by 64. This was obvious instantly.
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