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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #150 on: July 05, 2018, 05:57:56 PM »
Daniel, I am confused about what your position is.

You have said, "I tend to side with those predicting greater storm numbers."

But now you are pointing out (rightly) the importance of wind shear, which should reduce the number of storms.

This seems to be a contradiction, but perhaps I'm missing some nuance?

Let me clarify.  The warmer waters should increase the number of storms.  Once formed, wind shear (and other atmospheric events) have the greatest effect on storm strength.  Hence, warmer waters and greater wind shear should combine to generate more, but weaker storms.  Does that clear the ar?

oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #151 on: July 05, 2018, 06:47:09 PM »
Very clear.
I believe the science says same number of storms, but more powerful. I can't recall where I've read it though.

Csnavywx

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #152 on: July 05, 2018, 07:36:01 PM »
This season could contend with the all-time lows. Low MDR temps and high ambient shear with a quickly developing Nino all lend towards low ACE numbers. I'm thinking 50-80% of normal this year when it's all said and done.

wolfpack513

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #153 on: July 05, 2018, 09:10:43 PM »
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

Correct.  But since our environment is not void of shear, to ignore its effects is silly.

There are plenty of TC’s globally every year that strengthen in low to no shear environments.

 You said “Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.“.

That’s completely false.  There’s a reason why East Pacific MDR is so small.  That’s where all the warm water is and SSTs drop off drastically once you move away from it. 


Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #154 on: July 06, 2018, 02:29:13 AM »
Bob Henson (@bhensonweather)
7/5/18, 6:04 PM
“Now rapidly strengthening in the NW Pacific, Typhoon #Maria is now predicted by JTWC to become a Cat 5 equivalent--which would be the first time in memory we've had two Cat 5s by the same name in different basins. (sat img courtesy RAMMB-CSU/CIRA) https://t.co/u5ntUeqmS5
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1014993422153728000
Satellite image at the link.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #155 on: July 06, 2018, 03:13:55 PM »
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

Correct.  But since our environment is not void of shear, to ignore its effects is silly.

There are plenty of TC’s globally every year that strengthen in low to no shear environments.

 You said “Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.“.

That’s completely false.  There’s a reason why East Pacific MDR is so small.  That’s where all the warm water is and SSTs drop off drastically once you move away from it.

And yet the research supports this.  Are you saying that the scientific research is completely false?

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf

"We also found that 28˚C is an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) but, above that threshold there is no increase in intensity that is proportional to SST."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969

"Apparently, the warming trends of the three tropical oceans cancel with respect to their effects on the vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, so that the tropical cyclone activity remained rather stable and mostly within the range of the natural multidecadal variability."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1

"We summarize our most important findings as follows:  For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal mean thermodynamic environment account for more than half of the observed increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone numbers and in the cumulative statistics, ACE and PDI. For the 21st-century climate change scenario, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appears driven mostly by circulation changes, notably the increased seasonal mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean."


Ken Feldman

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #156 on: July 06, 2018, 06:22:04 PM »
Realclimate.org did a good post on this a few months ago:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/

Quote
In the long term, whether we will see fewer or more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or in other basins as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change is still much-debated. There is a mounting consensus, however, that we will see more intense hurricanes. So let us revisit the question of whether global warming is leading to more intense tropical storms. Let’s take a step back and look at this issue globally, not just for the Atlantic.

Tropical storms are powered by evaporation of seawater.  More than 30 years ago, one of us (Emanuel) developed a quantity called potential intensity that sets an upper bound on hurricane wind speeds. In general, as the climate warms, this speed limit goes up, permitting stronger storms than were possible in the past.

Of course there could be other changes in the climate system that counteract this – e.g. an increase in wind shear that tears the hurricanes apart, changes in the humidity of the atmosphere, or increases in natural or anthropogenic aerosols. This question has been investigated for many years with the help of model simulations. The results of numerous such studies can be summarized briefly as follows: due to global warming we do not necessarily expect more tropical storms overall, but an increasing number of particularly strong storms in categories 4 and 5, especially storms of previously unobserved strength. This assessment has been widely agreed on at least since the 4th IPCC Report of 2007 and reaffirmed several times since then. A review article in the leading journal Science (Sobel et al. 2016) concluded:

We thus expect tropical cyclone intensities to increase with warming, both on average and at the high end of the scale, so that the strongest future storms will exceed the strength of any in the past.

Models also suggest that atmospheric aerosol pollution may have weakened tropical storms and masked the effect of global warming for decades, making it more difficult to detect trends in measurement data.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #157 on: July 06, 2018, 07:04:23 PM »
Yesterday, WU wrote "Our top models for forecasting hurricane tracks ... all predicted in their runs from Thursday morning that Beryl would be a tropical wave by Sunday."  Today, the official forecast for Beryl projects a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday morning.  Heaven help those who trusted yesterday's forecast!

An update on Hurricane Beryl the WU website is due any time now.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #158 on: July 06, 2018, 07:11:58 PM »

And yet the research supports this.  Are you saying that the scientific research is completely false?

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf

"We also found that 28˚C is an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) but, above that threshold there is no increase in intensity that is proportional to SST."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969

"Apparently, the warming trends of the three tropical oceans cancel with respect to their effects on the vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, so that the tropical cyclone activity remained rather stable and mostly within the range of the natural multidecadal variability."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1

"We summarize our most important findings as follows:  For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal mean thermodynamic environment account for more than half of the observed increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone numbers and in the cumulative statistics, ACE and PDI. For the 21st-century climate change scenario, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appears driven mostly by circulation changes, notably the increased seasonal mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean."

Daniel B.

Your first source is a paper whose lead author, Patrick J. Michaels, is a notorious science denier.  He wrote this while employed at the CATO Institute, a "think tank" that supports climate deniers.  I can't find a date on the paper or what publication it was published in, so it may not have been peer-reviewed.  The paper studied storms from 1982 to 2003, which obviously missed out on the 2004 and 2005 seasons, so they may have cherry-picked the dates.  Since other studies that include a fuller data set (starting from 1979 when geo-stationary satellites provided global coverage), this paper is at best out of date, if not intentionally misleading.

You may want to be careful about reposting papers from known deniers.  People might start assuming you're a denier as well.

More on Patrick J. Michaels of the CATO Institute here:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html

Quote
A review of claims made by the Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels over the last quarter century shows that he has repeatedly been proven wrong over time. Michaels is one of a few contrarian climate scientists who is often featured in the media without disclosure of his funding from the fossil fuel industry.

Quote
Michaels Estimated That 40 Percent Of His Funding Comes From Fossil Fuel Industries. In 2010, Patrick Michaels estimated that about 40 percent of his funding comes from fossil fuel industries:


FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: Can I ask you what percentage of your work is funded by the petroleum industry?

PATRICK MICHAELS: I don't know. Forty percent? I don't know. [CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, 8/15/10, via Think Progress]

Michaels Initially Did Not Disclose His Publication Was Funded By Coal Industry Association. The Society of Environmental Journalists reported in 2007 that Michaels initially did not disclose that World Climate Report, published by Michaels' PR firm New Hope Environmental Services, was partially funded by the Western Fuels Association, an association of coal mining companies and coal-fired utilities:

Ken Feldman

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #159 on: July 06, 2018, 07:30:24 PM »
The other papers in Daniel B's post above are from 2007 and 2009.  There has been a lot more data collected since then, and the data doesn't support the conclusions he reached.  In the past decade it's become apparent that tropical storms are becoming stronger due to global warming.

Here's a peer-reviewed study from 2016, published in Science:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6296/242.full

Quote
Observed trends

The detection of long-term trends in TC activity has been a subject of considerable debate. The validity of data from the earlier periods in the longest-term observational data sets has been strongly questioned [e.g., (55–58)], making any trends computed from records that include those periods disputable. Large natural variability, including substantial components with decadal and longer frequencies, further confounds trend detection in records, which in many cases are only a few decades long. These difficulties have led to findings of low confidence in observed TC trends in consensus assessment reports (7, 59).

Perhaps the most persistent and provocative [though not unchallenged (58)] findings are that intensity increased in the past few decades at the upper end of the observed range, implying an increasing frequency of storms in categories 4 and 5 on the commonly used Saffir-Simpson scale (60–62), and that overall activity increased in the North Atlantic over a period of roughly three decades, beginning in the 1970s (63, 64).

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #160 on: July 06, 2018, 08:03:27 PM »
“.@fema in Puerto Rico is preparing for Beryl by distributing satellite radios today to “ensure local mayors will have some forms of connectivity.”
People in homes with blue roofs are encouraged to seek shelter. I’m told the govt is working on a website with open shelter locations”
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/1015258809395286017

NHC:  “BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...”
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #161 on: July 06, 2018, 08:45:03 PM »

And yet the research supports this.  Are you saying that the scientific research is completely false?

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf

"We also found that 28˚C is an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) but, above that threshold there is no increase in intensity that is proportional to SST."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969

"Apparently, the warming trends of the three tropical oceans cancel with respect to their effects on the vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, so that the tropical cyclone activity remained rather stable and mostly within the range of the natural multidecadal variability."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1

"We summarize our most important findings as follows:  For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal mean thermodynamic environment account for more than half of the observed increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone numbers and in the cumulative statistics, ACE and PDI. For the 21st-century climate change scenario, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appears driven mostly by circulation changes, notably the increased seasonal mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean."

Daniel B.

Your first source is a paper whose lead author, Patrick J. Michaels, is a notorious science denier.  He wrote this while employed at the CATO Institute, a "think tank" that supports climate deniers.  I can't find a date on the paper or what publication it was published in, so it may not have been peer-reviewed.  The paper studied storms from 1982 to 2003, which obviously missed out on the 2004 and 2005 seasons, so they may have cherry-picked the dates.  Since other studies that include a fuller data set (starting from 1979 when geo-stationary satellites provided global coverage), this paper is at best out of date, if not intentionally misleading.

You may want to be careful about reposting papers from known deniers.  People might start assuming you're a denier as well.

More on Patrick J. Michaels of the CATO Institute here:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html

Quote
A review of claims made by the Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels over the last quarter century shows that he has repeatedly been proven wrong over time. Michaels is one of a few contrarian climate scientists who is often featured in the media without disclosure of his funding from the fossil fuel industry.

Quote
Michaels Estimated That 40 Percent Of His Funding Comes From Fossil Fuel Industries. In 2010, Patrick Michaels estimated that about 40 percent of his funding comes from fossil fuel industries:


FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: Can I ask you what percentage of your work is funded by the petroleum industry?

PATRICK MICHAELS: I don't know. Forty percent? I don't know. [CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, 8/15/10, via Think Progress]

Michaels Initially Did Not Disclose His Publication Was Funded By Coal Industry Association. The Society of Environmental Journalists reported in 2007 that Michaels initially did not disclose that World Climate Report, published by Michaels' PR firm New Hope Environmental Services, was partially funded by the Western Fuels Association, an association of coal mining companies and coal-fired utilities:

Ah yes, the old sleazy lawyer ploy; if you cannot refute the evidence, discredit the witness.

Your article shows clear cherry-picking at its best.  The following shows a longer term analysis:

https://www.20minutes.fr/planete/2139895-20170927-ouragans-changement-climatique-lien-si-evident

While overall activity increased since the 1970s (as stated in your article), major hurricanes simply returned to levels observed in previous decades.

Even NOAA shows an increase in total numbers, but no long-term energy increase.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201713

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #162 on: July 06, 2018, 08:57:07 PM »
The will be a pretty big impact.

jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #163 on: July 06, 2018, 09:07:54 PM »
FWIW

This paper https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014EF000274

produced the following results

https://www.newhistorian.com/monster-hurricanes-battered-us-northeast-800-years-ago/2970/

Quote
Donnelly and his team have made a remarkable discovery which widens our understanding of our planet’s climate. It also presents a stark warning for the future, if our climate keeps getting warmer. “We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”
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wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #164 on: July 06, 2018, 10:03:48 PM »
Thanks, Ken.

Daniel has a history of citing deniers of various sorts, and comes off strongly as a denier/pseudo-skeptic himself. That's why I mostly ignore him and don't bother to track down his bogus/dated sources anymore. So thanks for tracking that down.

He seems to be about the only 'sleezy' one around here much anymore. Still wondering why the great and powerful N has not yet banned his @$$...I thought this was mostly a denialist-free zone...
« Last Edit: July 06, 2018, 10:28:14 PM by wili »
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Neven

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #165 on: July 06, 2018, 10:37:04 PM »
Still wondering why the great and powerful N has not yet banned his @$$...I thought this was mostly a denialist-free zone...

It has become a bit more denialist-free again. Claiming 'shoot the messenger' with regard to a coward like Michaels and his trickery from 15 years ago is a bit too much, even for me.
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #166 on: July 06, 2018, 11:07:08 PM »
It has become a bit more denialist-free again.
Finally, thanks Neven. DB was a "soft" denier but a denier nonetheless, and it was kinda tiring to keep countering him. I think when you constantly read compromised sources (intentionally or unintentionally) you become compromised yourself.

wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #167 on: July 06, 2018, 11:34:46 PM »
Thanks, N!
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #168 on: July 07, 2018, 01:24:37 AM »
In the Pacific, Super Typhoon Maria went from the equivalent of a category one to a five hurricane in 24 hours. See: https://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2018/07/super-typhoon-maria-category-1-to-5-in.html


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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #169 on: July 07, 2018, 02:38:08 AM »
Realclimate.org did a good post on this a few months ago:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/

Thanks, Ken.  I have recommended that post to others -- it's a good summary of where the science is at on this topic.

Quote from: Daniel B.
Ah yes, the old sleazy lawyer ploy; if you cannot refute the evidence, discredit the witness.

Pat Michaels discredited himself long ago.  He doesn't need anyone's help with that.   WTF were you thinking of, using him as a source?  And then when it's pointed out, arguing instead of just saying "oops, sorry, I didn't notice the source I was citing was garbage".

Quote from: Neven
It has become a bit more denialist-free again.

Thanks for your tireless work here. 

In the Pacific, Super Typhoon Maria went from the equivalent of a category one to a five hurricane in 24 hours.

That's pretty extreme.  I should probably search rather than just tossing this out there, but I seem to remember someone posting something here last hurricane season about there being a trend towards faster intensification of storms, more rapid transition from cat 1/2 to cat 3/4/5...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #170 on: July 07, 2018, 05:22:18 PM »
Debris Cleanup At Lake Houston Will Continue For Months
Quote
Now almost a year out from Hurricane Harvey, debris cleanup at Lake Houston is still ongoing, and crews may be on the water for months to come in a project expected to cost anywhere between $8 million and $20 million.  ...
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/07/06/294657/debris-cleanup-at-lake-houston-will-continue-for-months/
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #171 on: July 09, 2018, 05:48:00 PM »
Yesterday, WU wrote "Our top models for forecasting hurricane tracks ... all predicted in their runs from Thursday morning that Beryl would be a tropical wave by Sunday."  Today, the official forecast for Beryl projects a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday morning.  Heaven help those who trusted yesterday's forecast!
...
Heaven, I guess, did help!  Recent WU post included:
Quote
Tropical Storm Beryl degenerated to a very windy and rainy tropical wave on Sunday afternoon, as it sped west-northwest through the Leeward Islands at 26 mph.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #172 on: July 09, 2018, 06:05:23 PM »
Typhoon Maria will continue to slowly weaken as it heads WNW toward Taiwan and mainland China.  While the storm will be large, the maximum winds will probably be 80-90 knots when impacting China -- equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane.  It is no longer a "Super Typhoon" or Cat 5.”
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1016335302393245696
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #173 on: July 09, 2018, 11:02:28 PM »
Look at this really awesome satellite animation of the remnants of Beryl followed by Saharan dust.

https://twitter.com/kudrios/status/1016313077883637760
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #174 on: July 11, 2018, 01:22:09 AM »
• Hurricane Chris has joined Beryl as the second Atlantic July hurricane of 2018.
• More than one hurricane forming in the Atlantic during July is rare.
• The last time two or more hurricanes formed in July was 10 years ago.
Quote
Chris attained hurricane-strength late Tuesday afternoon as it spun off the U.S. East Coast, making it a rare second hurricane to form in the Atlantic during July.

The first hurricane of 2018 arrived on July 6 when Beryl developed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Beryl's formation spot was an odd one for early July. It was just one of two such hurricanes to form that early in the season east of the Lesser Antilles.

July hurricane formations are infrequent, with 55 of them occurring in the Atlantic Basin in the 166 years spanning 1851 to 2017, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. That's an average of about one July hurricane every three years.

Beryl was the first Atlantic hurricane to form in July since Arthur in 2014.

Two hurricanes forming in July is even less common. The last time that happened was in 2008. Hurricane Dolly struck south Texas as a Category 1, and Hurricane Bertha roamed the central Atlantic and brought tropical storm conditions to Bermuda.

Before that, only five other years since satellite observations began in 1966 have had two or more hurricanes form in July: 2005, 2003, 1997, 1996 and 1966. In 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Emily) and 1966 (Becky, Celia, Dorthy), three hurricanes formed in July.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-09-beryl-chris-hurricane-atlantic-july
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #175 on: July 11, 2018, 07:40:47 PM »
U.S. Pulls Puerto Rico Backup Power Before Hurricane Season Peak
- One backup plant being dismantled, two others remain running on a one-month contract extension
- Heart of Atlantic hurricane season will strike in mid-August
Quote
While the mega-generators are being dismantled, Miller said other generators are being refurbished and will remain stored on the island for potential use during this year’s hurricane season. The Federal Emergency Management Agency and Defense Logistics Agency will ultimately decide how many generators will remain in Puerto Rico, she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-10/u-s-pulls-puerto-rico-backup-power-before-hurricane-season-peak
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #176 on: July 16, 2018, 06:06:08 PM »
Houston, Texas

As Post-Harvey Buyout Money Rolls In, Some Have Already Given Up On The Program
Quote
After Hurricane Harvey flooded thousands of homes in Houston, a lot more homeowners became interested in government buyouts.

The federal money needed to buy and demolish all those homes has finally started rolling in, but as the months passed since the storm, some people decided they couldn’t wait on the government.

Buyouts are generally regarded as a cost-effective way to save people from flooding risks, but the glacially-slow pace is a big challenge. So far, Harris County has received about half the $164 million it’s requested from FEMA for the effort.

“We basically want to go after the houses that were impacted the most, first,” said James Wade, head of the county’s buyout program. Wade said the county targets houses that basically should have never been built.

“They’re in areas that, you know, some of these areas may be ten feet deep in the floodplain, and you’re never going to engineer your way out of that flooding threat,” he said.

Since Harvey, the county has approved applications from about 1,000 people who volunteered to let the government tear down their home and, ideally, turn the area into a green space that better absorbs floodwater. But Wade said about 200 of those people have already either sold to someone else or decided not to sell at all, and he said that’s historically been a problem.
...
Even before Harvey, Harris County’s buyout program was the largest in the U.S. Local officials are hoping to use separate pots of money for more buyouts, beyond what’s already been federally funded. But even if that’s all successful, there will still be almost 200,000 homes left in the region’s floodplains. ...
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/07/16/295696/as-post-harvey-buyout-money-rolls-in-some-have-already-given-up-on-the-program/
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #177 on: July 16, 2018, 06:32:31 PM »
Frontline July 13, 2018 NPR

Quote
FEMA acknowledged for the first time it failed to properly prepare for last year’s hurricane season and was unable to provide the support victims needed in the wake of an unprecedented season of catastrophic storms, according to an internal report released this week by the federal agency.
...
Now they know what everybody else knew at the time...
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #178 on: July 22, 2018, 05:48:24 PM »
The Atlantic may be quiet, but you don't often see such a mess in the Pacific as in the attached image from JTWC.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #179 on: July 24, 2018, 11:01:21 PM »
To add to Japan's weather woes.....Tokyo next
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #180 on: July 25, 2018, 11:51:32 AM »
Straight over one of the biggest cities in the world, with plenty of rain.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #181 on: July 26, 2018, 11:25:58 PM »
Tropical Storm Jongdari Expected to Bring Rain to Parts of Japan
Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari says Tropical Storm Jongdari is forecast to bring heavy rain to areas of Japan, already hard hit by flooding earlier this month.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-25-tropical-storm-typhoon-jongdari-japan-unusual-track-end-heat
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #182 on: August 05, 2018, 01:35:08 PM »
NWS on Twitter: "Hector remains a major hurricane this morning. Those with interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor its progress.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nws/status/1026062377509421056
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #183 on: August 06, 2018, 01:38:29 AM »
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Forest Dweller

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #184 on: August 06, 2018, 01:54:42 PM »
Hurricane #Hector is now a Category 4 system and could pose a threat to #Hawaii this week
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1026217769384259584

https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-01-threat-tropical-storm-hurricane-hector-hawaii.html

Looks like hurricane Hector will pass south of Hawaii in the models, but typhoon Shanshan has Tokyo in it sights big time with possible winds of around 220 kmph.

I was discussing the current naming system with Jim Massa, who thinks it is silly, they're all just storms.
He's probably right about that, people are confused always about what is a typhoon/hurricane/cyclone.
Or getting storms with the same name from different years mixed up....a better system is conceivable.
I.E. let's say the second tropical storm in the Atlantic of 2018 gains strength and becomes the 1st category 1 or above cyclonic storm...TS-A2-2018 becomes CS-A1-2018.
Would probably be a lot handier for studying historical activity in a database, filtering results, comparing...maybe similar systems are used already for that purpose.
No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny, hurricane Bert & hurricane Ernie?
 ;D
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 02:08:02 PM by Forest Dweller »

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #185 on: August 06, 2018, 10:53:01 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #186 on: August 07, 2018, 12:20:01 AM »
”No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny...”

Most Met officies would disagree.  Names give a storm an identity, a “personification” that develops with the forecasts, and provides a more robust basis for communicating a significant storm threat to a population, compared with a jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener.
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Forest Dweller

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #187 on: August 07, 2018, 06:17:11 PM »
”No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny...”

Most Met officies would disagree.  Names give a storm an identity, a “personification” that develops with the forecasts, and provides a more robust basis for communicating a significant storm threat to a population, compared with a jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener.

I'm sure they would disagree, and personification i understand but how useful is it?
We don't do it for other weather calamities.
It would be ridiculous for tornadoes or floods.
There aren't that many cyclonic storms but there was a lot last year and the alphabet is only so big was the concern.
It wouldn't have to be a "jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener"either.
The weatherman would probably just say how cyclone A5 did damage to such and such areas of the US or Carribean.
People would understand how bad others were affected regardless.
But we like our names of course...i was just reading how the last severe heatwave in Europe was named "Lucifer".
What will they call this one i wonder?
Beëlzebub or just plain Satan?
You run out of religious names pretty quick as well....
The Dutch whose country was devastated and reshaped by many big storms tried a similar system, using the names of saints whose celebration days coincide with the date of the storm.
The St. Thomas or St. Lucia flood etc.
The more recent major flood of 1953 is simply remembered as the "flood disaster".
Everyone knows how bad it was but they hardly know about the much worse ones earlier ripping the country in half.
Most don't even understand tornadoes can happen here, when in fact we have the highest occurence in the world.
I manged to predict the last F4-5 outbreak accurately 3 summers ago, luck no doubt...hmmm.
I'm not placing bets but i suspect we will see more soon enough.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2018, 06:42:42 PM by Forest Dweller »

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #188 on: August 09, 2018, 04:44:33 PM »
Revised death toll in Puerto Rico from 2017 hurricane Maria goes from 46 to 1427.

https://apnews.com/1fe6c144340d4d41963fd304d569c088/Puerto-Rico-concedes-Hurricane-Maria-deaths-more-than-1,400
Quote
Most of the deaths occurred not in the initial storm on Sept. 20, but in the ensuing days and weeks when the island-wide electricity outage and roads blocked by downed power lines and other debris made it difficult to move around and emergency services were stretched beyond their capabilities.

My son was deployed to Puerto Rico by FEMA after the storm and he said it was most depressing thing he's ever experienced.

The mass exodus of Puerto Rico citizens peaked a few weeks after the storm but recent surveys indicate that many have returned. On balance a few hundred thousand have permanently left the island.
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/05/watch-puerto-ricos-hurricane-migration-via-mobile-phone-data/559889/
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #189 on: August 13, 2018, 04:35:50 AM »
Quote
Revised death toll in Puerto Rico from 2017 hurricane Maria goes from 46 to 1427.

It was really easy to tell. It was mathematically obvious that the number of indirect deaths would be much higher than that ridiculous number of 64.

I remember when Trump asked how many people died and the governor said 16, so proudly. I was watched this using my generator.  I literally cried in a mix of anger, disbelief and sadness for all the people that would suffer just so they could save face. It was obvious that the deaths would be higher. No statistics or protocol needed.

I'm trying to convince myself that this happened because the governor and every government official were also victims. Probably the stress of knowing they literally lost control of the country forced them default to their most basic instinct and only real expertise, to protect their image above anything else.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #190 on: August 16, 2018, 03:06:13 PM »
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Nearly Surrounded By California and Canadian Wildfire Smoke Over the North Atlantic Extending to Europe
Quote
A strange juxtaposition appeared in satellite imagery over the Atlantic Ocean this week.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto formed in the North Atlantic Ocean, well southeast of Newfoundland, Wednesday, though it was no threat to land.

The fact that Ernesto was a subtropical, rather than tropical, storm and that it formed at roughly at the same latitude as Washington D.C. isn't the weird part.

What struck meteorologists as odd was how Ernesto's circulation appeared to become encircled by wildfire smoke, showing up as a dull haze in GOES-East satellite imagery. ...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-15-subtropical-storm-ernesto-wildfire-smoke-atlantic
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #191 on: August 18, 2018, 04:50:41 PM »
Typhoon Soulik will approach Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu in southern Japan early next week with heavy rain and strong winds. And it might not be the last typhoon threat in Japan this month

Typhoon Soulik a Potential Threat to Flood-Ravaged Southwest Japan Next Week; Second Typhoon to Follow?
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-16-typhoon-soulik-japan-korea
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #192 on: August 19, 2018, 06:16:01 PM »
U.K.

Corrie Corfield on Twitter: "I’ve been reading the Ships on @BBCRadio4 for nearly 30 years & this is the first time I’ve had a TROPICAL storm. Becoming EXTRA tropical to boot #BraceYourselfForErnesto "
https://mobile.twitter.com/corrie_corfield/status/1030765893897334784
Image below.

BBC Shipping forecast and region map:
https://www.bbc.com/weather/coast_and_sea/shipping_forecast#area-1
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #193 on: August 20, 2018, 04:56:33 PM »
A dubble wammy for Japan and South-Korea.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #194 on: August 20, 2018, 08:55:26 PM »
I’ve been reading the Ships on @BBCRadio4 for nearly 30 years & this is the first time I’ve had a TROPICAL storm

Ernesto was still a tropical storm at very nearly my latitude over here in soggy SW England:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #195 on: August 20, 2018, 10:26:02 PM »
A story of several hurricanes.

Elon Musk & Puerto Rico: How He Is Making A Difference and Why It Matters
http://johnnasabri.com/elon-musk-and-puerto-rico
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #196 on: August 21, 2018, 06:25:21 PM »
MAJOR HURRICANE LANE STILL MOVING WEST BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK
HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
Location: 14.1N 152.3W
Maximum sustained winds: 150 MPH
Moving: W at 12 MPH
Minimum pressure: 950 MB

NWS on Twitter: "This graphic shows the most-likely arrival time for sustained tropical storm force winds (39+ MPH) from #Lane. Follow @NWSHonolulu for the latest forecast and potential local impacts."
https://mobile.twitter.com/nws/status/1031912934409207809
Image below.

Edit: from NWS WPC:
#HurricaneLane is forecast to pass near the Hawaiian Islands, leading to rainfall accumulations in excess of 10 inches [254mm]. Flash flooding and landslides will be of concern.
   Please follow http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ and http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/ for track, intensity, and impact updates.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2018, 09:05:50 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #197 on: August 21, 2018, 09:19:11 PM »
Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry). 8/21/18, 10:57 AM
This is a troubling forecast for #Hawaii. There are a million people on #Oahu alone, where no direct hurricane impact (of any magnitude) has been recorded. This isn't Florida. The landscape and infrastructure are different. Take this one seriously. #Lane
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1031918273825316864

<< Yes with big mountains and flooding potential

<< Nobody has hurricane shutters, generators, etc. Homes are not built with hurricanes in mind. There are many shallow-rooted trees. At any given time O'ahu has a food supply to last a week. This could be a genuine catastrophe.

<< These are all good points...also this is one of the peaks of tourist season so thousands more people wondering what to do next.  Although this has happened before...in Cabo etc.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #198 on: August 22, 2018, 12:01:21 AM »
Matt Lanza (@mattlanza).  8/21/18, 12:44 PM
The trend in the forecast for #Lane is one of those “could this actually happen?” moments I think we have seen on multiple occasions in meteorology in recent years (2011 Superoutbreak, Sandy, Harvey, Maria, others I’m sure I am forgetting).
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1031945031127584768

Stu Ostro (@StuOstro).  8/21/18, 12:01 PM
#HurricaneLane has reintensified as upper-level outflow -- the storm engine's "exhaust" -- has improved, represented by high clouds streaming away from the core... also squall bands have formed farther N & NE of the center #HIwx
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1031934244568870913
Radar/satellite gif at the link
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #199 on: August 22, 2018, 04:21:27 AM »
I really don't want to see a repeat of last year where every disaster seemed to take a turn for the worse.
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