Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
The tropical cyclone is forecasted to dump massive amounts of rain and bring intense gusts in the region, and local governments of areas in the typhoon's projected path issued evacuation advisories and instructions to residents hours before the storm's arrival. Many of the cities and towns were devastated by historic torrential rains and subsequent flooding and landslides in early July. Train and air traffic services were also suspended on Aug. 23 to avert possible damage caused by the season's 20th typhoon.Flooding and landslides are feared in areas where the typhoon is expected to hit, and the JMA has advised residents to be on their guard against such natural disasters. In a message on Aug. 23, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for early evacuations and for people to take measures to limit damage.The amount of rain forecast to fall over the 24-hour period ending 6 p.m. on Aug. 24 is 500 millimeters in the Shikoku and Kinki regions, and 400 millimeters in the Tokai region in central Japan. Rainfall is expected to reach 250 millimeters in the Kanto-Koshin region in the eastern part of the country and 200 millimeters in the Chugoku region in the west.In the Chugoku and Tokai regions, it is predicted that the total amount of rain to fall in localized downpours since the arrival of the previous typhoon, Soulik, could reach 1,000 millimeters.
Preliminary storm totals from Big Island: Hakalau Station 31.21", Waikea Experimental Station 23.67".
11:00 pm 8/24/18 Preliminary rain totals on Big Island show 4 stations have reported 40+ inches from #Lane. The highest is Waiakea Uka with 44.88". Flooding remains a primary concern this weekend for some islands.
The Mountain View gage has measured 52.02 inches of rain for the period from 8 AM HST August 22 when the outer rain bands started impacting the Big Island through 8 AM HST August 26 after the trailing rain band passed west of South Point. An unverified private weather station also reported 58.80 inches during this same time span. We will attempt to validate this private weather station report. Both totals indicate that Hurricane Lane has broken the Hawaii tropical cyclone storm total rainfall record, pending verification of the data. The previous record was 52.00 inches, measured at Kanalohuluhulu Ranger Station, during Hurricane Hiki in 1950.
This could become a Puerto Rico like scenario for large parts of Japan. And with so much heat accumulating in the oceans we are probably going to see a Puerto Rico every year somewhere.
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
Quote from: be cause on September 01, 2018, 09:13:18 PMI didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).
Quote from: gerontocrat on September 02, 2018, 10:12:12 PMQuote from: be cause on September 01, 2018, 09:13:18 PMI didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).The other global models have trended towards keeping a weaker Florence under a strengthening ridge, increasing the odds of a track into the US East Coast. Lots of time to go.
"By the end of the forecast period, the tropical storm is forecast to re-intensify while it moves over warmer SSTs and the environmental shear decreases....... By the end of the forecast period, nearly all of the guidance shows a turn toward the northwest,
Jebi is arriving.
Typhoon Jebi has made its second landfall in Japan, slamming into the country's main island of Honshu. It hit the island of Shikoku a few hours earlier. It's one of the strongest typhoons to make landfall in Japan in 25 years.Jebi is wreaking havoc on transportation links with evacuation advisories still in place across wide areas.We're hearing reports that a few people in the country have been injured from the strong winds.Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people remain under evacuation advisories in the city of Kobe and also in Osaka Prefecture. Officials say heavy rain could lead to landslides or flooding.There are also large disruptions to transportation links. Shinkansen bullet train service between Tokyo and Osaka is suspended.There are other rail service suspensions as well in the Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe areas.Airline companies have cancelled more than 750 domestic flights scheduled for Tuesday mainly in western Japan.
Some footage of Jebi impact here;...It appears to show hundreds of cars tossed together which caught fire.Can't imagine how that would happen.That is, i can see how storm surge washes them away probably but not how this results in fire on that scale.
Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday.
A look at the ensemble guidance shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the split in the guidance.
Florence is now forecast to reach hurricane strength at the weekend:
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
Since 1851, 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of #Florence’s present location, and not a single one has ever hit the United States. So if this one does, it would be a remarkable outlier.
