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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #300 on: September 11, 2018, 06:03:09 PM »
Hurricane Hal's storm surge blog post on the potential impact of hurricane Florence storm surge: a  surge of up to 20 feet is possible for a cat 3 to 4 landfall in North Carolina, however the footprint should be less than cat 3 or 4 previous hurricanes due to Florence being somewhat smaller in size, but there is a wild card, if the hurricane stalls before landing the storm surge could increase dramatically and impact and much longer length of coast. The blog also overview the potential for exceptional rainfall and catastrophic and widespread flooding event following a stall after landfall


http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #301 on: September 11, 2018, 06:38:13 PM »
Hurricane Hal's storm surge blog post on the potential impact of hurricane Florence storm surge: a  surge of up to 20 feet is possible for a cat 3 to 4 landfall in North Carolina, however the footprint should be less than cat 3 or 4 previous hurricanes due to Florence being somewhat smaller in size, but there is a wild card, if the hurricane stalls before landing the storm surge could increase dramatically and impact and much longer length of coast. The blog also overview the potential for exceptional rainfall and catastrophic and widespread flooding event following a stall after landfall


http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/

Yes, the best case scenario is for Florence to maintain current speed.  That would serve to lessen the storm surge and rainfall over the Carolina coast.  One of the stronger hurricanes to hit the area was Hugo in 1989, which had top sustained winds of 160 mph, a lowest barometric pressure of 918 mbar, and tropical force winds extending out 150 miles from the center.  By contrast, Florence currently has a top winds speed of 130 mph, barometric pressure of 950 mbar, and tropical winds extending 80 miles.  Florence is expected to strengthen some before landfall, and will likely be quite devastating to the area it strikes.  Contrary to Hugo which accelerating upon landfall, Florence is expected to stall, which would increase the rainfall to the coastal areas.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #302 on: September 11, 2018, 08:07:34 PM »
There are NINE tropical storms wrapping around the world right now. Wow.

(Visualization by Owen Shieh, h/t Marshall Shepherd)

http://untamedskies.com/tropical-cyclones/

https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/1039303271796678657
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #303 on: September 11, 2018, 08:10:30 PM »
Yikes

Bill McKibben (@billmckibben). 9/11/18, 11:46 AM
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.
      https://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1039540728085413890

MO:  The state is also complicit in allowing toxic coal ash dumps,, now about to be inundated with 20+ inches of rain - arsenic, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, lead, mercury, and selenium...  with a side order of hog farms runoff...
https://twitter.com/peandj/status/1039571185049198593
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #304 on: September 11, 2018, 10:29:01 PM »
Quote
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

It must be said! All of us will lose property and wealth to climate change, some of us will lose our lives. These people have no excuse. The science was there but their cowardice and greed got the better of them. They should be treated as cowardly traitors to mankind.

Personally I have made a promise to myself that every time I hear the names of two ex-heroes of mine, Freeman Dyson and Burt Rutan I will out them as climate change deniers. People should know about these cowards like people should know about great accomplishments like the Nobel Peace Prize.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

magnamentis

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #305 on: September 11, 2018, 11:28:40 PM »
Yikes

It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

of course i understand your meaning but can't help to add that the fact that a person who simply quotes a "rude" face are seen and treated as rude. it's not the messenger who is bad it's the news he conveys and if the news is "not fake" LOL he should not be blamed.

BTW there was a time when rulers beheaded the messenger because the bad news annoyed them so much and they didn't like to hear it / deal with facts. seem to be kind of part of the human way to deal with things to first repress them.

this behaviour remembers me of my cats when they hide their head under the sofa and protrude their back prominently into the air and genuinely believe that if they don't see me, that they can't be seen either  ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

greylib

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #306 on: September 11, 2018, 11:30:20 PM »
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.
      https://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
Thanks for that.

From the link:
Quote
Republican State Rep. Pat McElraft, who drafted the law, called the law a "breather" that allows the state to "step back" and continue studying sea -level rise for the next several years with the goal of achieving a more accurate prediction model.
She's an ex-real estate agent, which is why she was dead against anything which might stop people buying waterside property.

Her address is given as Emerald Isle - "a town on Bogue Banks Island, part of North Carolina’s Crystal Coast. [Elevation 3.05m]"

And according to her Facebook page, she's hosting a Republican fundraiser next Tuesday...
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #307 on: September 11, 2018, 11:52:26 PM »
Quote
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

It must be said! All of us will lose property and wealth to climate change, some of us will lose our lives. These people have no excuse. The science was there but their cowardice and greed got the better of them. They should be treated as cowardly traitors to mankind.

Personally I have made a promise to myself that every time I hear the names of two ex-heroes of mine, Freeman Dyson and Burt Rutan I will out them as climate change deniers. People should know about these cowards like people should know about great accomplishments like the Nobel Peace Prize.
You do not need a gun to kill people. As you know too well, Archimid.

Failure through ignorance is one thing, but the people forcing through changes on environmental protection know the consequences of their actions in weakening or even crippling response to climate change (being but one of a raft of measures being implemented by Trump's all too willing acolytes in the administration). Trumpistan has learnt from Obama how the greatly increased power of the Executive has given them so much more freedom to do what they will without reference to Congress.

It is not rude to hold your legislators and Government to account. It is one of the legitimate functions of a true democracy that needs all the help it can get in these not so good times.

There are days when I think "What a rotten century so far". But maybe things have got to be broken before they can be fixed.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #308 on: September 12, 2018, 01:41:16 AM »
Meanwhile the President of the United States of America, the most powerful man in the world, has some technical information for the people concerning  Florence,( presented to you in "Buddy" format).

The storm will be ‘tremendously big and tremendously wet’

while also hailing the ‘unsung success’ of response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

Now don't you feel better for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/11/florence-trump-latest-government-prepared-storm

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #309 on: September 12, 2018, 02:17:08 AM »
Hurricanes love Trump ! . I just looked at the last NAVGEM run and it ends (180hrs out) with Isaac in the same spot as Florence is now but looking even scarier !!! b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #310 on: September 12, 2018, 03:11:48 AM »
ps .. here in Ireland the weather was considered related to the ruler .. the annals celebrate the weather under good kings while famine and hardship was the lot of a bad king . How many major hurricanes hit the USA under Obama ? How is Donald doing ?

 I love ancient wisdom. Things that were true thousands of years ago and are true today are things worth understanding.  A cat 4 in a well run kingdom is destructive but the people are in good position to recover.  The same cat 4 in a badly run kingdom is catastrophic.  I can see how they came to that conclusion.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #311 on: September 12, 2018, 05:16:43 AM »
Since the issue of category expansion has again been discussed, this time in Washingon Post, no less, https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/09/11/category-climate-change-may-cause-more-hurricanes-rapidly-intensify/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.039450ae3c41

It's time to put in a link to my blog made next week after haiyan
http://erimaassa.blogspot.com/2013/11/haiyan-scale.html?m=1
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 11:28:52 AM by Pmt111500 »

Forest Dweller

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #312 on: September 12, 2018, 10:54:32 AM »
Ventusky just got a little better by adding a feature giving you the names of the storms now;
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-156;2&l=gust
Manghkut looks like a beast but what is up with Helene?
She appears to be heading for Spain, France or England but gets swallowed up by a huge system up north.
And Isaac looks like it's following the path of Irma last year towards the ravaged islands.
Hope that one follows the models and loses strength.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 10:59:47 AM by Forest Dweller »

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #313 on: September 12, 2018, 11:29:45 AM »
Florence is not getting stronger. Florence is getting bigger.
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  52
Quote
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

36 hours ago:
Quote
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

Tuk

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #314 on: September 12, 2018, 12:12:56 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #315 on: September 12, 2018, 01:46:00 PM »
Typhoon Mangkhut is enormous and its track has shifted a bit to give the north of the Phillipines a bigger hit with wind up to 140 knots at landfall. There are many islands in the Taiwan Strait that will get the worst the typhoon has to offer.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #316 on: September 12, 2018, 02:36:07 PM »
NWS re Florence:  “Life-threatening.”  “Catastrophic.”  “Once in a lifetime.” 

Folks south of the North/South Carolina border thought they might not be significantly impacted.  Latest models suggest otherwise.

 Alicia M Bentley (@AliciaMBentley)
9/12/18, 12:23 AM
Animation shows MSLP & maximum 10-meter wind speed assoc. w/ #Hurricane #Florence over the next 4 days (18Z #FV3GFS). Florence is fcst to slow as it approaches NC coast, hovering just offshore for *2.5 days*! Stalling will result in dangerous storm surge & over 12 inches of rain.
https://twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1039731169015865344
Map with animation at the link.


Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013)
9/12/18, 6:37 AM
evolving model forecasts suggest disturbing picture for coastal SC, NC, and GA...>Very unusual and dangerous situation. There is still uncertainty once the storm nears land so you MUST WATCH THE EVOLVING FORECAST. Do not look at a static one and say "that's it" #HurricaneFlorence
https://twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1039825405572800513
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #317 on: September 12, 2018, 04:02:33 PM »
Looks like Wilmington has it bad anyway but if the eye goes North (not f-ing south) of the City the damages should be a tad smaller, no? Storm surge in that inlet would be horrible if the eye went south (not f-ing north) of the place

Camiguin and Fuga Islands would or course be a worse place to be stranded.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 05:25:53 PM by Pmt111500 »

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #318 on: September 12, 2018, 04:24:58 PM »
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?

be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #319 on: September 12, 2018, 05:01:19 PM »
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?
  exactly !b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

miki

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #320 on: September 12, 2018, 05:06:21 PM »
Trump administration diverted nearly $10 million from FEMA to ICE detention program, according to DHS document

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/09/12/document-shows-the-trump-administration-diverted-nearly-10-million-from-fema-to-ice-detention-program/?utm_term=.71662d8ba4e1


So, they took away $10 million from preparedness and recovery for citizens, from disasters and hurricanes, to cage toddlers and children at the border...


Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #321 on: September 12, 2018, 05:16:15 PM »
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?

Oops, of course, my bad. Fixed the message.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 05:26:14 PM by Pmt111500 »

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #322 on: September 12, 2018, 05:25:31 PM »
Barijat is hitting the south of China right now. Just a few days before Mangkhut will hit the same area. So the land will already be pretty wet before Mangkhut arrives. That's almost the same situation as with florence, only that there are two typhoons.

mostly_lurking

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #323 on: September 12, 2018, 05:31:36 PM »
Trump administration diverted nearly $10 million from FEMA to ICE detention program, according to DHS document


You can keep the vomit inside. Do you know what FEMA's budget is ? Over 1 Billion. This 1% given to ICE is a drop in the bucket and has zero impact on preparedness for this hurricane.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #324 on: September 12, 2018, 05:38:20 PM »
Trump also runs a 1000 billion deficit, to keep everything that runs on subsidies running. And who is running on subsidies ?

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #325 on: September 12, 2018, 06:33:52 PM »
Trump also runs a 1000 billion deficit, to keep everything that runs on subsidies running. And who is running on subsidies ?

Everyone, until the inevitable hits the proverbial.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #326 on: September 12, 2018, 06:36:28 PM »
Hurricane Florence Could Unleash Pig Shit, Coal Ash, Industrial Waste
Quote
The forecast for Hurricane Florence is about as ominous as it gets. The National Weather Service—a bastion of calm forecast language—said the storm has “the potential for unbelievable damage.” And part of what’s so disconcerting is what could be damaged as Florence plows into the Carolinas this week.

The storm is headed into the heart of an industrial wasteland festooned with pig shit lagoons, piles of toxic leftovers from burning coal, and Superfund sites. With Florence forecast to dump rain that can be measured in feet, these sites run the real risk of sending their waste into rivers, forests, and people’s yards. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/hurricane-florence-could-unleash-pig-shit-coal-ash-in-1828977086
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #327 on: September 12, 2018, 07:00:09 PM »
https://qz.com/1386850/trump-policies-have-left-fema-and-the-epa-weaker-ahead-of-hurricane-florence/
Quote
The US Environmental Protection Agency plays a crucial role in cleaning up contaminated water, mitigating chemical and other spills after a storm. But Trump’s all-out war on the agency that he promised to destroy while he was on the campaign trail has decimated its ranks to levels not seen since the Reagan administration, as the Washington Post reports, with a net 1,200 fewer workers in the past 18 months.
...
Weakened chemical and factory regulations

The Trump administration has rolled back rules that related to chemical manufacturers, power plants, and others in industry, which could make it harder to identify toxic spills, environment experts say.
...

Texas shows the way on how to deal with toxic pollution: Ignore it!

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/11/report-texas-rules-lax-cleanup-polluted-sites/
Quote
The report also found that Texas’ benchmarks are significantly weaker than those used by the federal government to determine whether a site is eligible for Superfund status.

“On average, for all chemicals targeted by Texas and the EPA, the strictest Texas benchmarks tolerate soil pollution at a rate nearly 14 times greater than the benchmarks used to score potential Superfund sites and groundwater pollution at a rate nearly 35 times higher,” according to the report, which emphasizes that the disparity is particularly stark for carcinogenic contaminants.

While Texas benchmarks for pollutants that are not thought to cause cancer are 4.5 percent stronger than federal Superfund thresholds, the report found that they are 1,682 percent weaker for known carcinogens.

“It is fair to say that the more dangerous a pollutant, the less emphasis Texas puts on cleaning it up,” the report concludes.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #328 on: September 12, 2018, 07:30:45 PM »
Is there a risk for the nuclear power plants in that area. There are a half dozen of them.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #329 on: September 12, 2018, 07:46:13 PM »
Looks like Isaac is one to watch too, but still far out.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #330 on: September 12, 2018, 07:46:46 PM »
"Meanwhile, in the West Pac, Super Typhoon #Mangkhut - the stadium effect within the eye is spectacular - #Himawari 2.5 min rapid scan"
https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1039830311025209344
GIF at the link.


NHC_TAFB on Twitter: "Wave heights to 83 ft [25 m] were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence. These enormous waves are produced by being trapped along with very strong winds moving in the same direction the storm's motion. #HurricaneFlorence"
https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657
Data/sat image at the link.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #331 on: September 12, 2018, 07:53:47 PM »
If more of these one in 500 year storms keep moving in, like Harvey and Irma last year. It will become hard to call them one in 500 year storms.

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #332 on: September 12, 2018, 08:26:11 PM »
If more of these one in 500 year storms keep moving in, like Harvey and Irma last year. It will become hard to call them one in 500 year storms.


The annual 500 year storms? :(


I think the Storms of James Hansen's Grandchildren are nipping at his children's heels.
Terry

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #333 on: September 12, 2018, 09:20:06 PM »

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #334 on: September 12, 2018, 09:38:02 PM »
Isaac is expected to be ripped apart by high wind shear over the weekend, and not have enough energy left to reform.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #335 on: September 12, 2018, 10:23:37 PM »
Let us hope, because the water in the Gulf is hot.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #336 on: September 12, 2018, 10:39:18 PM »
Another one has 20% chance to appear in 5 days.

Update: subtropical storm Joyce has formed.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 10:53:55 PM by Aluminium »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #337 on: September 13, 2018, 12:29:17 AM »
TYPHOON MANGKHUT

It just gets worse. Florence - Thursday to ? ? ?

Mangkhut - Saturday / Sunday for the Phillipines @ 135 Knots
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #338 on: September 13, 2018, 12:48:25 AM »
Hurricane Florence

Climate Signals (@ClimateSignals)
9/12/18, 6:04 PM
Possibly first ever pre-event attribution study (!): due to #climatechange "rainfall will be increased by over 50%...storm will remain at a high category on the SaffirSimpson scale for longer...and storm is approximately 80 km in diameter larger at landfall" #Florence https://twitter.com/climatesignals/status/1039998214781382657

SoMAS.SBU (@SoMAS_SBU)
9/12/18, 5:59 PM
Dr Kevin Reed & grad student Alyssa Stansfield at @stonybrooku @SoMAS_SBU, Michael Wehner & @weatherczar present 1st advance forecasted attribution statements on #HurricaneFlorence about the human influence on a tropical cyclone. #farbeyond
https://twitter.com/somas_sbu/status/1039996966015524870
Image below.  Left, from GFS model.  Right, with climate change signal removed.

Estimating the potential impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence | Climate Extremes Modeling Group
https://you.stonybrook.edu/kareed/2018/09/12/estimating-the-potential-impact-of-climate-change-on-hurricane-florence/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #339 on: September 13, 2018, 02:59:46 AM »
Forget FEMA.  Waffle House is on the case!
(These small, sit-down restaurants are known for getting back up and running — even if only partially — after major storms.  FEMA has actually used them as a guide to know where conditions are worst!)

Waffle House News (@WaffleHouseNews)
9/11/18, 4:08 PM
The @WaffleHouse Storm Center is activated and monitoring #Florence. Plan ahead and be safe.
https://twitter.com/wafflehousenews/status/1039606662234075137
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #340 on: September 13, 2018, 03:04:16 AM »
In Hurricane Florence’s Path: Giant Toxic Coal Ash Piles
Quote
Dozens of toxic coal ash piles across the Southeast are in the path of what is forecast to be days of torrential rains and flash flooding from Hurricane Florence.

Environmental advocates are warning that the giant impoundments, often built beside waterways, are at risk of spills or collapsing. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12092018/toxic-coal-ash-ponds-hurricane-florence-flood-collapse-risk-north-carolina-virginia
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #341 on: September 13, 2018, 03:37:08 AM »
Philippe Papin (@pppapin)
9/12/18, 2:49 PM
This is a hall of fame tropical weather outlook map right here. I've never seen anything like this!

#Florence, #Helene, #Issac, #95L, #96L, & lets just throw in another 20% baroclinicity induced system for the heck of it.

Yes its peak season, but this is getting ridiculous.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039949240854700033
Image below. 96L is now “Joyce.”
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Forest Dweller

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #342 on: September 13, 2018, 04:14:52 AM »
Helene goes to Ireland.
It happened in the sixties, it happened last year.
Now 2 years in a row?


sark

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #343 on: September 13, 2018, 06:09:51 AM »
how is Mangkhut's eyewall replacement being observed right now? Did it break a bunch of weather models?  Did GFS just become more reliable in the next 24 hours than ECMWF?  How many models did this thing break

I'm wondering if this storm is very knowable right now?  It is currently about Noon at supertyphoon Mangknut and it is approaching the sea between Taiwan and the del Norte Phillipines:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_world-ced2_sstanom_1-day.png
I am not a scientist

Paddy

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #344 on: September 13, 2018, 06:41:38 AM »
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Barijat is starting to bring heavy rainfall to tge same area of southern China that Mangkhut is heading for, meaning that when the latter hits the mainland, it's likely the soil will already be waterlogged...

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-barijat-aims-for-southern-china-with-tropical-rain-late-this-week/70006032

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #345 on: September 13, 2018, 07:17:06 AM »
Florence weakens but still has a big area of hurricane force winds about 200 km in diameter.

Neven

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #346 on: September 13, 2018, 10:18:29 AM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #347 on: September 13, 2018, 02:20:16 PM »
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
Quote
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
.

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #348 on: September 13, 2018, 08:52:57 PM »
And now Joyce joins the group.

magnamentis

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #349 on: September 13, 2018, 09:20:14 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?