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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #350 on: September 13, 2018, 10:27:38 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

It has already been already established by researches, notably Kerry Emanuel, MIT, an expert in hurricane, confirms in the following presentation at the American Meteorological Society, together with increased frequency of more intense hurricanes:




magnamentis

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #351 on: September 13, 2018, 11:46:36 PM »
@bluesky

thanks for the feedback and the linked video  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #352 on: September 14, 2018, 12:57:05 AM »
Hurricane Florence: storm surge due to the large wind field.

NHC 5pm update Thurs Sept 13:
“Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of Pamlico Sound.  A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.”

Flooding at North Topsail Beach.
https://mobile.twitter.com/z_lowder14/status/1040270054842093569
Image below.

Road/river flooding caused by storm surge reported 90 miles inland:
https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/status/1040361201413316608
Photos at the link.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #353 on: September 14, 2018, 11:43:02 AM »
Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Northern Philippines getting 6 to 12 hours of destruction.
145 knots, gusts to 175 knots.

Just look at the size of the damn thing.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #354 on: September 14, 2018, 11:56:19 AM »
New Bern, North Carolina

Residents 'trapped on roofs and in vehicles' as Hurricane Florence nears coast
https://abcnews.go.com/US/residents-trapped-roofs-vehicles-hurricane-florence-nears-coast/story?id=57818220

“Opinion: Don't condemn people who don't evacuate for #HurricaneFlorence
Packing up and leaving assumes a level of privilege many people might not think about. ”
Don't Condemn People Who Don't Evacuate for Hurricane Florence
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/dont-condemn-people-who-dont-evacuate-for-hurricane-florence/

The moment the power flickered out in New Bern as Florence continues to send storm surge inland.
https://mobile.twitter.com/blkahn/status/1040408182756175872
Brief video clip at the link.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #355 on: September 14, 2018, 01:47:18 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #356 on: September 14, 2018, 04:19:16 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?
A key requirement for hurricanes to form is the presence of warm water, which is why tropical storms/hurricanes are tropical...If the planet warms sufficiently that 25 degree plus water is found further north, then it is possible that a hurricane could exist further north than currently. Of course if the water around , for example, Iceland, warmed up that much, hurricanes would be pretty low on our list of impacts.

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #357 on: September 14, 2018, 07:10:56 PM »
Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

Quote
Two common measures used to judge whether hurricanes are becoming worse are the number of storms per year and the strength of each storm. Based on the total number of named storms, there has been an increase since the start of the 20th century.

 Data heavy piece. Lots of great graphs!
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #358 on: September 14, 2018, 07:55:00 PM »
An increase ? It's more than a doubling in large hurricanes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #359 on: September 14, 2018, 08:07:05 PM »
Hurricane Florence

Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) 9/13/18, 11:54 PM
This is a 36 hour forecast loop from the 8 PM HRRR model. Just look at how slow that thing moves. And how those bands to the east just pummel the same areas for hours and hours. Not good.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1040448686801735680
Radar/sat GIF at the link.


Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 12:32 PM
Radar estimated rainfall totals in Hurricane Florence already topping 20 inches. A new all-time East Coast hurricane rainfall record (28" or more) is looking like a lock.
Thread [by Katharine Hayhoe] on the relationship between Florence's rainfall and climate change [at this link]:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040639332929990657
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 1:21 PM
New analysis: Hurricane Florence will be a >1000 year rainfall event for parts of North Carolina.
This will likely be the heaviest rainstorm to hit the East Coast in recorded history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040651830047461377
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 1:33 PM
With 10-15" of rain forecast, I'm starting to get pretty worried about Charlotte -- the largest city in North Carolina.
Latest analysis shows Florence will be a 500-1000 year rainfall event there.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040654752625975297
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #360 on: September 15, 2018, 01:21:53 PM »
TROPICAL STORM HELENE is headed for the U.K. / Ireland.
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Alexander555

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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #362 on: September 15, 2018, 02:12:38 PM »
It's going to stay rainy for the next 8 to 9 days in the area where Florence is now. That's going to be a mess.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #363 on: September 15, 2018, 05:03:31 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/15/18, 10:57 AM
With a preliminary 30.58" [ .78 meters!] so far, Florence has now broken the all-time North Carolina hurricane rainfall record.
It has also broken the all-time rainfall record for any East Coast state north of Florida.
And it's still raining.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040977939230334977
Images below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #364 on: September 15, 2018, 09:32:35 PM »
Typhoon Mangkhut slammed into the northern Philippines, bringing ferocious gale-force winds up to 200 mph, destroying homes and causing severe flooding. It's the strongest storm anywhere on the planet in 2018
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1041028927097978880
Photos at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #365 on: September 15, 2018, 09:38:54 PM »
Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb)
9/15/18, 2:17 PM
That primary band far east of the center of #Florence that has been persistently aimed onshore in the Jacksonville, NC area will probably align over the Wilmington area tonight, and far inland from there of course. More flash flood warnings and emergencies likely tonight, Sunday.
https://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1041028164795998208
Image below. GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #366 on: September 16, 2018, 02:16:17 PM »
WOW!!! Buildings in #HongKong have been widely damaged this morning in #TyphoonManghut report: @guillamephotos #Mangkhut #china
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041247496960462848
Video clip at the link.

"#Shenzhen this morning with cranes falling off buildings. Report here by @PavelSidlo #TyphoonManghkut #Mangkhut #HongKong
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041282878280216576
Video clip at the link.

 "Scary weather in #Hongkong this morning with #TyphoonManghkut affecting the city. Quite a few houses have been damaged... #Mangkhut report: @Dualman"
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041274829901586432
Video clip from inside as windows break, at the link.

"Conditions in ShenZhen, this afternoon 16th September with #TyphoonManghkut affecting the area. Thanks to @NicolasTanev #HongKong #mangkut "
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041210201955872768
Video clip at the link.

"WOW!!! #Shenzhen #HongKong this morning trees have been damaged or knocked over widely... #Mangkhut #TyphoonManghkut ..."
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041276741661216769
Video clip at the link.

"Just took these in Hung Hom waterfront in Hong Kong . Windows broken and shredded glasses everywhere. At a point I can I heard shredded glasses/ or something else hitting the car @SCMPNews #mangkhut"
https://mobile.twitter.com/phila_siu/status/1041220887633027075
Photos at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #367 on: September 16, 2018, 02:35:36 PM »
"Rainfall event not quite half over in North Carolina. So far 4 Trillion gallons have fallen across state & 6 Trillion more are in the forecast. #Florence”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1040981559149510657
Images below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #368 on: September 16, 2018, 04:29:39 PM »
"It's already been said, but the forecast for #Florence by @NHC_Atlantic was pretty remarkable. Here's the entire forecast loop for Florence since it's initial formation off the African coast.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdeflitch/status/1040733772243591168
Image below; GIF at the link.

The same weak jet stream that is causing Florence to stall out over the Carolinas is causing unseasonable heat to persist over the Gulf coast....
Image below.

NWS New Orleans on Twitter: "Yes it is Summer still but this is getting ridiculous for mid September. Highs will continue to be in the mid 90s with the heat index approaching 105 in some areas. Lows again in the 70s. Isolated storms today but maybe a few more storms tomorrow afternoon. #LAwx #MSwx”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1041281878312054784
Temperature maps at the link.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #369 on: September 16, 2018, 05:57:57 PM »
Florence waned just in time to spare the coast from storm surge somewhat. That said, I wouldn't want some 80cm of water dropped on me on any occasion.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #370 on: September 17, 2018, 12:24:36 AM »
Roads to Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off, Florence Flood Fears Rise
Quote
Woody White, chairman of the board of commissioners of New Hanover County, said officials were planning for food and water to be flown into the coastal city of nearly 120,000 people.

“Our roads are flooded,” he said. “There is no access to Wilmington.”


About 70 miles away from the coast, residents near the Lumber River stepped from their homes directly into boats floating in their front yards; river forecasts showed the scene could be repeated in towns as far as 250 miles inland as waters rise for days.
...
Nearby, a Waffle House restaurant limited breakfast customers to one biscuit and one drink, all take-out, with the price of $2 per item. ...
http://time.com/5397640/wilmington-north-carolina-flooding-roads/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #371 on: September 17, 2018, 05:03:47 PM »
Raleigh, North Carolina.

NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh)
9/17/18, 9:19 AM
917 am... BREAKING. We've observed a one minute period of sunshine at the NWS Raleigh office in west Raleigh. Last time we had sun was on Wednesday. #ncwx #theendisnear
https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/1041677955871768576
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #372 on: September 17, 2018, 06:34:06 PM »
More than 1000 road closures across North Carolina right now.
@NCDOT is advising travelers to avoid the state entirely.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/17/18, 11:12 AM
- About 1,100 road closures
- Wilmington INACCESSIBLE by land. DON'T travel, let responders work.
- Sections of I-95/40 flooded. No reopen time until crews assess damage.
- Avoid areas S of US 64/east of I-73/I-74
- drivenc.gov: Use the route dropdown & incidents tab
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1041706379055194114
Images below.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #373 on: September 17, 2018, 06:49:16 PM »
Not a hurricane , but still winds up to 150 km/h for Ireland and the north of the UK.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #374 on: September 17, 2018, 07:59:44 PM »
And a couple days later.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #375 on: September 18, 2018, 12:10:36 AM »
Interesting blog post on Air Worldwide website, the catastrophe modelling agency widely used by the insurance and re insurance companies, Air Worldwide reckons that climate change is responsible for up to 40% increase in rainfall intensity generated by hurricanes. And it seems that there is some similarities between Jennifer Francis ' work on jet stream slowing down due to weaker temperature difference from enhanced warming in the Arctic and slowing down hurricanes generating more intense rainfall...

http://www.air-worldwide.com/Blog/Why-Climate-Change-and-Hurricane-Stalls-Mean-Flooding-Rain/

"The record-breaking rainfall from Harvey in 2017, and what will likely be record rainfall from Florence 2018, can be partially explained by three factors, all tied to climate change:
Decreasing forward speed. The decreasing forward speed of tropical cyclones over the last several decades has only recently been identified. One study (Kossin 2018) has shown a worldwide decrease of about 10% since 1949 and a 20-30% decrease in forward speed of storms over land. This slowing is believed to be linked to climate change. As the poles are warming faster than the tropics, the average pole-to-equator temperature difference is decreasing and large-scale weather systems are slowing down in response; decreasing forward speed of hurricanes, tropical cyclones, and typhoons may be the result.
Increased precipitation. Also, let’s not forget that Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 storm and Florence was once at that same intensity category. Very warmer ocean waters obviously can— and do— contribute to such intensity, and the intensity can contribute to increased precipitation. Here’s why. Right at the surface, even over water, the rotational winds of a tropical cyclone deflect inward and ultimately upward because of friction. The frictional convergence is what contributes to the existence of the eyewall, where some of the heaviest precipitation in a storm falls. Increase the intensity and the convergence, rising motion, and precipitation increase too.
More water vapor. Finally, related to the higher temperatures from climate change, is the fact that there can be more water vapor in the atmosphere; it is the strong rising motion in a hurricane eyewall that converts that additional water vapor into additional precipitation. The increase is about 7% for each degree Celsius of temperature increase.
Estimating the Average Impact of Climate Change
Because we have estimates for the impacts of climate change on forward speed reduction and for increased water vapor, for completeness let’s suppose that the impact on intensity (and therefore convergence) is 5%, which is what some published research has shown to be the case.
We can estimate the average impact that climate change is having on tropical cyclone precipitation to be 1.05 x 1.25 x 1.07 = 1.40, or about a 40% increase. That is just an average. That said, in the absence of any climate change, Harvey may have only generated 42 inches for a maximum instead of 60. And Florence would only generate 21 inches instead of 30 (the National Hurricane Center is forecasting 20 to 30 inches for Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina, with 40 inches in places). And that is just an estimate of the climate change impact in 2018. "

the article on slowed down hurricanes, in Nature, unfortunately under paywall, anyone who would have access would be very welcome:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3


Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #376 on: September 18, 2018, 08:26:14 AM »
Are there some kind of effects like pulling away rain in other places if they get bigger and move slower ?

Sleepy

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #377 on: September 18, 2018, 09:06:44 AM »
the article on slowed down hurricanes, in Nature, unfortunately under paywall, anyone who would have access would be very welcome:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3
Thanks for the links, here you go.
Also quoting the last parts:
Quote
The analyses presented here do not constitute a detection and attribution study because there are likely to be many factors, natural and anthropogenic, that control tropical-cyclone translation speed. For example, the best-track data exhibit a global 10% reduction in translation speed during a period in which global-mean surface temperatures increased by about 0.5 °C; however, this finding does not provide a true measure of the climate sensitivity of these related phenomena. To determine the true sensitivity (that is, the expected change in translation speed as a function of anthropogenic forcing), further analyses and numerical simulations are required.

In addition to the global slowing of tropical-cyclone translation speed identified here, there is evidence that tropical cyclones have migrated poleward in several regions. Of particular relevance here, the rate of migration in the western North Pacific was found to be large, which has had a substantial effect on regional tropical-cyclone-related hazard exposure. When this finding is considered in tandem with the substantial slowdown of translation speed over land in this region (30% since 1949), the potential for increased hazard exposure becomes greater still, particularly to fresh-water flooding hazards, which can pose an especially large mortality risk 30. Further compounding these changes in regional exposure, the projected increases in tropical-cyclone rain rate in the western North Pacific for the late twenty-first century are about twice the projected global-mean increase. These recently identified trends in tropical-cyclone track behaviour emphasize that tropical-cyclone frequency and intensity should not be the only metrics considered when establishing connections between climate variability and change and the risks associated with tropical cyclones, both past and future. These trends further support the idea that the behaviours of tropical cyclones are being altered in societally relevant ways by anthropogenic factors. Continued research into the connections between tropical cyclones and climate is essential to understanding and predicting the changes in risk that are occurring on a global scale.

The analyses presented here demonstrate changes in the behaviour of translation speed, but local rainfall totals are also affected by translation direction. For example, a tropical cyclone that follows a looping track over some region could be translating quickly along the loop, but the rainfall totals in the region would still be large owing to the spatially confined track. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey not only translated slowly over Texas but also reversed direction and thus affected the same region over a particularly long duration. There is currently no formal definition of what constitutes a ‘stalled track’, although this term has been used to describe the track of Hurricane Harvey. Future studies that focus on tropical cyclones that remain geographically constrained for extended durations are warranted.
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #378 on: September 18, 2018, 10:09:30 AM »
Thanks Sleepy, much appreciated  :)!

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #379 on: September 18, 2018, 12:41:39 PM »
The remnants of Hurricane Helene have been reborn as "Storm Ali".

A sex-change, just like (but in reverse) the recent reincarnation of "Doctor Who".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #380 on: September 18, 2018, 01:35:02 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/18/18, 1:16 AM
Interstate 40 -- Wallace, North Carolina
Before and after Florence
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1041918912634519552
Images below.

Quote
919 risk pool (@oneduran)
9/18/18, 1:49 AM
@EricHolthaus trying to get word out in Piedmont NC communities about airdrops of supplies occurring from RDU near Raleigh to severely impacted communities like Lumberton & Wilmington, this thread summarizes what organizers on-site are being told is desperately needed.
https://twitter.com/oneduran/status/1041927214244265984

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill: #HurricaneFlorence organizers with A JUST FLORENCE RECOVERY/ OPERATION AIRDROP are coordinating multiple flights daily bringing hurricane relief supplies from RDU into severely impacted areas like #Lumberton and  #WilmingtonNC

They are in touch with folks in those communities, who have stated there is a desperate, urgent need for infant formula, especially in #Lumberton. Clean water is accessible, and liquid is heavy, so powdered formula is preferable.

Other needs are for disposable baby bottles with liners (due to lack of sterilization facilities) and diaper rash cream (due to humidity combined with limited washing facilities). Use the 'no parking' area in front of the building where supplies are being held for unloading.

Non-perishable foods & basic first aid supplies are also urgently needed so please donate what you can, but a top priority right now for Lumberton is powdered infant formula. Bottled water is not needed since it’s too heavy to fly efficiently. Thanks for helping out & sharing. ...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #381 on: September 18, 2018, 08:57:30 PM »
Florence is the worst flood in East Coast history. Here’s how locals describe it.
Quote
The images streaming in from the thousands of square miles of flooded cities and farmlands across the Carolinas are heartbreaking. From the washed-out beach homes of the Outer Banks to the raging mountain streams in the foothills of the Appalachians, nearly the entire region is underwater. All that rain means dozens of lives have been lost, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

Florence’s rainfall data is astonishing. The four-day accumulation of nearly 36 inches [0.91 meters], which was measured in Elizabethtown, North Carolina, is far, far above the previous rain record for a hurricane anywhere on the East Coast. It broke the North Carolina record by nearly a foot. That much rain is more than what scientists estimate a 1,000-year level, 60-day rainstorm would drop in the region, given a stable climate: slightly more than 35 inches. Put another way, there’s a 0.1 percent chance every year that in a 60-day period the rainfall in Elizabethtown would be at least 35 inches. North Carolina took on all of that water in just four days.

And as ocean waters warm and the atmosphere changes, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this storm is not just a fluke; there are more Florences in our future.

The region the storm hit hardest is one of the poorest parts of the state, where virtually no one has flood insurance. As bad as it is, the waters in rivers and streams statewide are still rising.

Grist corresponded with 10 Carolinians who grappled with Florence. Here are their stories, edited and condensed for clarity....
https://grist.org/article/florence-is-the-worst-flood-in-east-coast-history-heres-how-locals-describe-it/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #382 on: September 18, 2018, 09:47:07 PM »
It you haven't read the Weather Underground Category 6 post today, I would encourage you to do so.  Here is one paragraph which stood out for me:

"One of the co-authors of last week’s Hurricane Florence study, Dr. Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, was also a co-author of one of these Hurricane Harvey studies: Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey. Using only observational data, the study found that human-induced climate change increased the chances of the observed 7-day precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5, and that precipitation accumulations in these areas were increased by around 38% (lower bound, 18%). Their analysis showed that there had been a clear increase in the probability of extreme 7-day precipitation events along the Texas coast since 1950, with a 1-in-100-year event now being more like a 1-in-25-year event."

(I added the bold)

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #383 on: September 18, 2018, 10:31:00 PM »
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies