Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane season 2018  (Read 36151 times)

bluesky

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #350 on: September 13, 2018, 10:27:38 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

It has already been already established by researches, notably Kerry Emanuel, MIT, an expert in hurricane, confirms in the following presentation at the American Meteorological Society, together with increased frequency of more intense hurricanes:




magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1769
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 58
  • Likes Given: 105
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #351 on: September 13, 2018, 11:46:36 PM »
@bluesky

thanks for the feedback and the linked video  :)
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #352 on: September 14, 2018, 12:57:05 AM »
Hurricane Florence: storm surge due to the large wind field.

NHC 5pm update Thurs Sept 13:
“Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of Pamlico Sound.  A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.”

Flooding at North Topsail Beach.
https://mobile.twitter.com/z_lowder14/status/1040270054842093569
Image below.

Road/river flooding caused by storm surge reported 90 miles inland:
https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/status/1040361201413316608
Photos at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3366
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 315
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #353 on: September 14, 2018, 11:43:02 AM »
Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Northern Philippines getting 6 to 12 hours of destruction.
145 knots, gusts to 175 knots.

Just look at the size of the damn thing.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #354 on: September 14, 2018, 11:56:19 AM »
New Bern, North Carolina

Residents 'trapped on roofs and in vehicles' as Hurricane Florence nears coast
https://abcnews.go.com/US/residents-trapped-roofs-vehicles-hurricane-florence-nears-coast/story?id=57818220

“Opinion: Don't condemn people who don't evacuate for #HurricaneFlorence
Packing up and leaving assumes a level of privilege many people might not think about. ”
Don't Condemn People Who Don't Evacuate for Hurricane Florence
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/dont-condemn-people-who-dont-evacuate-for-hurricane-florence/

The moment the power flickered out in New Bern as Florence continues to send storm surge inland.
https://mobile.twitter.com/blkahn/status/1040408182756175872
Brief video clip at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Klondike Kat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 142
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #355 on: September 14, 2018, 01:47:18 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.

Sebastian Jones

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #356 on: September 14, 2018, 04:19:16 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?
A key requirement for hurricanes to form is the presence of warm water, which is why tropical storms/hurricanes are tropical...If the planet warms sufficiently that 25 degree plus water is found further north, then it is possible that a hurricane could exist further north than currently. Of course if the water around , for example, Iceland, warmed up that much, hurricanes would be pretty low on our list of impacts.

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #357 on: September 14, 2018, 07:10:56 PM »
Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

Quote
Two common measures used to judge whether hurricanes are becoming worse are the number of storms per year and the strength of each storm. Based on the total number of named storms, there has been an increase since the start of the 20th century.

 Data heavy piece. Lots of great graphs!
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #358 on: September 14, 2018, 07:55:00 PM »
An increase ? It's more than a doubling in large hurricanes.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #359 on: September 14, 2018, 08:07:05 PM »
Hurricane Florence

Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) 9/13/18, 11:54 PM
This is a 36 hour forecast loop from the 8 PM HRRR model. Just look at how slow that thing moves. And how those bands to the east just pummel the same areas for hours and hours. Not good.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1040448686801735680
Radar/sat GIF at the link.


Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 12:32 PM
Radar estimated rainfall totals in Hurricane Florence already topping 20 inches. A new all-time East Coast hurricane rainfall record (28" or more) is looking like a lock.
Thread [by Katharine Hayhoe] on the relationship between Florence's rainfall and climate change [at this link]:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040639332929990657
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 1:21 PM
New analysis: Hurricane Florence will be a >1000 year rainfall event for parts of North Carolina.
This will likely be the heaviest rainstorm to hit the East Coast in recorded history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040651830047461377
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 1:33 PM
With 10-15" of rain forecast, I'm starting to get pretty worried about Charlotte -- the largest city in North Carolina.
Latest analysis shows Florence will be a 500-1000 year rainfall event there.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040654752625975297
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #360 on: September 15, 2018, 01:21:53 PM »
TROPICAL STORM HELENE is headed for the U.K. / Ireland.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #362 on: September 15, 2018, 02:12:38 PM »
It's going to stay rainy for the next 8 to 9 days in the area where Florence is now. That's going to be a mess.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #363 on: September 15, 2018, 05:03:31 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/15/18, 10:57 AM
With a preliminary 30.58" [ .78 meters!] so far, Florence has now broken the all-time North Carolina hurricane rainfall record.
It has also broken the all-time rainfall record for any East Coast state north of Florida.
And it's still raining.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040977939230334977
Images below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #364 on: September 15, 2018, 09:32:35 PM »
Typhoon Mangkhut slammed into the northern Philippines, bringing ferocious gale-force winds up to 200 mph, destroying homes and causing severe flooding. It's the strongest storm anywhere on the planet in 2018
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1041028927097978880
Photos at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #365 on: September 15, 2018, 09:38:54 PM »
Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb)
9/15/18, 2:17 PM
That primary band far east of the center of #Florence that has been persistently aimed onshore in the Jacksonville, NC area will probably align over the Wilmington area tonight, and far inland from there of course. More flash flood warnings and emergencies likely tonight, Sunday.
https://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1041028164795998208
Image below. GIF at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #366 on: September 16, 2018, 02:16:17 PM »
WOW!!! Buildings in #HongKong have been widely damaged this morning in #TyphoonManghut report: @guillamephotos #Mangkhut #china
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041247496960462848
Video clip at the link.

"#Shenzhen this morning with cranes falling off buildings. Report here by @PavelSidlo #TyphoonManghkut #Mangkhut #HongKong
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041282878280216576
Video clip at the link.

 "Scary weather in #Hongkong this morning with #TyphoonManghkut affecting the city. Quite a few houses have been damaged... #Mangkhut report: @Dualman"
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041274829901586432
Video clip from inside as windows break, at the link.

"Conditions in ShenZhen, this afternoon 16th September with #TyphoonManghkut affecting the area. Thanks to @NicolasTanev #HongKong #mangkut "
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041210201955872768
Video clip at the link.

"WOW!!! #Shenzhen #HongKong this morning trees have been damaged or knocked over widely... #Mangkhut #TyphoonManghkut ..."
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041276741661216769
Video clip at the link.

"Just took these in Hung Hom waterfront in Hong Kong . Windows broken and shredded glasses everywhere. At a point I can I heard shredded glasses/ or something else hitting the car @SCMPNews #mangkhut"
https://mobile.twitter.com/phila_siu/status/1041220887633027075
Photos at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #367 on: September 16, 2018, 02:35:36 PM »
"Rainfall event not quite half over in North Carolina. So far 4 Trillion gallons have fallen across state & 6 Trillion more are in the forecast. #Florence”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1040981559149510657
Images below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #368 on: September 16, 2018, 04:29:39 PM »
"It's already been said, but the forecast for #Florence by @NHC_Atlantic was pretty remarkable. Here's the entire forecast loop for Florence since it's initial formation off the African coast.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdeflitch/status/1040733772243591168
Image below; GIF at the link.

The same weak jet stream that is causing Florence to stall out over the Carolinas is causing unseasonable heat to persist over the Gulf coast....
Image below.

NWS New Orleans on Twitter: "Yes it is Summer still but this is getting ridiculous for mid September. Highs will continue to be in the mid 90s with the heat index approaching 105 in some areas. Lows again in the 70s. Isolated storms today but maybe a few more storms tomorrow afternoon. #LAwx #MSwx”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1041281878312054784
Temperature maps at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1541
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #369 on: September 16, 2018, 05:57:57 PM »
Florence waned just in time to spare the coast from storm surge somewhat. That said, I wouldn't want some 80cm of water dropped on me on any occasion.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #370 on: September 17, 2018, 12:24:36 AM »
Roads to Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off, Florence Flood Fears Rise
Quote
Woody White, chairman of the board of commissioners of New Hanover County, said officials were planning for food and water to be flown into the coastal city of nearly 120,000 people.

“Our roads are flooded,” he said. “There is no access to Wilmington.”


About 70 miles away from the coast, residents near the Lumber River stepped from their homes directly into boats floating in their front yards; river forecasts showed the scene could be repeated in towns as far as 250 miles inland as waters rise for days.
...
Nearby, a Waffle House restaurant limited breakfast customers to one biscuit and one drink, all take-out, with the price of $2 per item. ...
http://time.com/5397640/wilmington-north-carolina-flooding-roads/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #371 on: September 17, 2018, 05:03:47 PM »
Raleigh, North Carolina.

NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh)
9/17/18, 9:19 AM
917 am... BREAKING. We've observed a one minute period of sunshine at the NWS Raleigh office in west Raleigh. Last time we had sun was on Wednesday. #ncwx #theendisnear
https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/1041677955871768576
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #372 on: September 17, 2018, 06:34:06 PM »
More than 1000 road closures across North Carolina right now.
@NCDOT is advising travelers to avoid the state entirely.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/17/18, 11:12 AM
- About 1,100 road closures
- Wilmington INACCESSIBLE by land. DON'T travel, let responders work.
- Sections of I-95/40 flooded. No reopen time until crews assess damage.
- Avoid areas S of US 64/east of I-73/I-74
- drivenc.gov: Use the route dropdown & incidents tab
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1041706379055194114
Images below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #373 on: September 17, 2018, 06:49:16 PM »
Not a hurricane , but still winds up to 150 km/h for Ireland and the north of the UK.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #374 on: September 17, 2018, 07:59:44 PM »
And a couple days later.

bluesky

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #375 on: September 18, 2018, 12:10:36 AM »
Interesting blog post on Air Worldwide website, the catastrophe modelling agency widely used by the insurance and re insurance companies, Air Worldwide reckons that climate change is responsible for up to 40% increase in rainfall intensity generated by hurricanes. And it seems that there is some similarities between Jennifer Francis ' work on jet stream slowing down due to weaker temperature difference from enhanced warming in the Arctic and slowing down hurricanes generating more intense rainfall...

http://www.air-worldwide.com/Blog/Why-Climate-Change-and-Hurricane-Stalls-Mean-Flooding-Rain/

"The record-breaking rainfall from Harvey in 2017, and what will likely be record rainfall from Florence 2018, can be partially explained by three factors, all tied to climate change:
Decreasing forward speed. The decreasing forward speed of tropical cyclones over the last several decades has only recently been identified. One study (Kossin 2018) has shown a worldwide decrease of about 10% since 1949 and a 20-30% decrease in forward speed of storms over land. This slowing is believed to be linked to climate change. As the poles are warming faster than the tropics, the average pole-to-equator temperature difference is decreasing and large-scale weather systems are slowing down in response; decreasing forward speed of hurricanes, tropical cyclones, and typhoons may be the result.
Increased precipitation. Also, let’s not forget that Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 storm and Florence was once at that same intensity category. Very warmer ocean waters obviously can— and do— contribute to such intensity, and the intensity can contribute to increased precipitation. Here’s why. Right at the surface, even over water, the rotational winds of a tropical cyclone deflect inward and ultimately upward because of friction. The frictional convergence is what contributes to the existence of the eyewall, where some of the heaviest precipitation in a storm falls. Increase the intensity and the convergence, rising motion, and precipitation increase too.
More water vapor. Finally, related to the higher temperatures from climate change, is the fact that there can be more water vapor in the atmosphere; it is the strong rising motion in a hurricane eyewall that converts that additional water vapor into additional precipitation. The increase is about 7% for each degree Celsius of temperature increase.
Estimating the Average Impact of Climate Change
Because we have estimates for the impacts of climate change on forward speed reduction and for increased water vapor, for completeness let’s suppose that the impact on intensity (and therefore convergence) is 5%, which is what some published research has shown to be the case.
We can estimate the average impact that climate change is having on tropical cyclone precipitation to be 1.05 x 1.25 x 1.07 = 1.40, or about a 40% increase. That is just an average. That said, in the absence of any climate change, Harvey may have only generated 42 inches for a maximum instead of 60. And Florence would only generate 21 inches instead of 30 (the National Hurricane Center is forecasting 20 to 30 inches for Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina, with 40 inches in places). And that is just an estimate of the climate change impact in 2018. "

the article on slowed down hurricanes, in Nature, unfortunately under paywall, anyone who would have access would be very welcome:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3


Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #376 on: September 18, 2018, 08:26:14 AM »
Are there some kind of effects like pulling away rain in other places if they get bigger and move slower ?

Sleepy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1219
  • Every day you live, something else dies.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #377 on: September 18, 2018, 09:06:44 AM »
the article on slowed down hurricanes, in Nature, unfortunately under paywall, anyone who would have access would be very welcome:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3
Thanks for the links, here you go.
Also quoting the last parts:
Quote
The analyses presented here do not constitute a detection and attribution study because there are likely to be many factors, natural and anthropogenic, that control tropical-cyclone translation speed. For example, the best-track data exhibit a global 10% reduction in translation speed during a period in which global-mean surface temperatures increased by about 0.5 °C; however, this finding does not provide a true measure of the climate sensitivity of these related phenomena. To determine the true sensitivity (that is, the expected change in translation speed as a function of anthropogenic forcing), further analyses and numerical simulations are required.

In addition to the global slowing of tropical-cyclone translation speed identified here, there is evidence that tropical cyclones have migrated poleward in several regions. Of particular relevance here, the rate of migration in the western North Pacific was found to be large, which has had a substantial effect on regional tropical-cyclone-related hazard exposure. When this finding is considered in tandem with the substantial slowdown of translation speed over land in this region (30% since 1949), the potential for increased hazard exposure becomes greater still, particularly to fresh-water flooding hazards, which can pose an especially large mortality risk 30. Further compounding these changes in regional exposure, the projected increases in tropical-cyclone rain rate in the western North Pacific for the late twenty-first century are about twice the projected global-mean increase. These recently identified trends in tropical-cyclone track behaviour emphasize that tropical-cyclone frequency and intensity should not be the only metrics considered when establishing connections between climate variability and change and the risks associated with tropical cyclones, both past and future. These trends further support the idea that the behaviours of tropical cyclones are being altered in societally relevant ways by anthropogenic factors. Continued research into the connections between tropical cyclones and climate is essential to understanding and predicting the changes in risk that are occurring on a global scale.

The analyses presented here demonstrate changes in the behaviour of translation speed, but local rainfall totals are also affected by translation direction. For example, a tropical cyclone that follows a looping track over some region could be translating quickly along the loop, but the rainfall totals in the region would still be large owing to the spatially confined track. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey not only translated slowly over Texas but also reversed direction and thus affected the same region over a particularly long duration. There is currently no formal definition of what constitutes a ‘stalled track’, although this term has been used to describe the track of Hurricane Harvey. Future studies that focus on tropical cyclones that remain geographically constrained for extended durations are warranted.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

bluesky

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #378 on: September 18, 2018, 10:09:30 AM »
Thanks Sleepy, much appreciated  :)!

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3366
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 315
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #379 on: September 18, 2018, 12:41:39 PM »
The remnants of Hurricane Helene have been reborn as "Storm Ali".

A sex-change, just like (but in reverse) the recent reincarnation of "Doctor Who".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #380 on: September 18, 2018, 01:35:02 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/18/18, 1:16 AM
Interstate 40 -- Wallace, North Carolina
Before and after Florence
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1041918912634519552
Images below.

Quote
919 risk pool (@oneduran)
9/18/18, 1:49 AM
@EricHolthaus trying to get word out in Piedmont NC communities about airdrops of supplies occurring from RDU near Raleigh to severely impacted communities like Lumberton & Wilmington, this thread summarizes what organizers on-site are being told is desperately needed.
https://twitter.com/oneduran/status/1041927214244265984

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill: #HurricaneFlorence organizers with A JUST FLORENCE RECOVERY/ OPERATION AIRDROP are coordinating multiple flights daily bringing hurricane relief supplies from RDU into severely impacted areas like #Lumberton and  #WilmingtonNC

They are in touch with folks in those communities, who have stated there is a desperate, urgent need for infant formula, especially in #Lumberton. Clean water is accessible, and liquid is heavy, so powdered formula is preferable.

Other needs are for disposable baby bottles with liners (due to lack of sterilization facilities) and diaper rash cream (due to humidity combined with limited washing facilities). Use the 'no parking' area in front of the building where supplies are being held for unloading.

Non-perishable foods & basic first aid supplies are also urgently needed so please donate what you can, but a top priority right now for Lumberton is powdered infant formula. Bottled water is not needed since it’s too heavy to fly efficiently. Thanks for helping out & sharing. ...
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #381 on: September 18, 2018, 08:57:30 PM »
Florence is the worst flood in East Coast history. Here’s how locals describe it.
Quote
The images streaming in from the thousands of square miles of flooded cities and farmlands across the Carolinas are heartbreaking. From the washed-out beach homes of the Outer Banks to the raging mountain streams in the foothills of the Appalachians, nearly the entire region is underwater. All that rain means dozens of lives have been lost, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

Florence’s rainfall data is astonishing. The four-day accumulation of nearly 36 inches [0.91 meters], which was measured in Elizabethtown, North Carolina, is far, far above the previous rain record for a hurricane anywhere on the East Coast. It broke the North Carolina record by nearly a foot. That much rain is more than what scientists estimate a 1,000-year level, 60-day rainstorm would drop in the region, given a stable climate: slightly more than 35 inches. Put another way, there’s a 0.1 percent chance every year that in a 60-day period the rainfall in Elizabethtown would be at least 35 inches. North Carolina took on all of that water in just four days.

And as ocean waters warm and the atmosphere changes, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this storm is not just a fluke; there are more Florences in our future.

The region the storm hit hardest is one of the poorest parts of the state, where virtually no one has flood insurance. As bad as it is, the waters in rivers and streams statewide are still rising.

Grist corresponded with 10 Carolinians who grappled with Florence. Here are their stories, edited and condensed for clarity....
https://grist.org/article/florence-is-the-worst-flood-in-east-coast-history-heres-how-locals-describe-it/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

FrostKing70

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 42
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #382 on: September 18, 2018, 09:47:07 PM »
It you haven't read the Weather Underground Category 6 post today, I would encourage you to do so.  Here is one paragraph which stood out for me:

"One of the co-authors of last week’s Hurricane Florence study, Dr. Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, was also a co-author of one of these Hurricane Harvey studies: Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey. Using only observational data, the study found that human-induced climate change increased the chances of the observed 7-day precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5, and that precipitation accumulations in these areas were increased by around 38% (lower bound, 18%). Their analysis showed that there had been a clear increase in the probability of extreme 7-day precipitation events along the Texas coast since 1950, with a 1-in-100-year event now being more like a 1-in-25-year event."

(I added the bold)

bluesky

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #383 on: September 18, 2018, 10:31:00 PM »
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies

bluesky

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #384 on: September 19, 2018, 12:09:32 PM »
Jennifer Francis' guest post on carbonbrief, the scientist explains the possible link between Florence unusual path to North Carolina and intensity, and the high pressure blocking pattern that may be linked to Arctic warming and AMOC slowdown, leading to slower jet stream for the former and higher sea surface temperature along the US East coast for the latter.

A split jet stream with a double peak temperature (from the Arctic to the mid latitude) could also explains the blocking pattern, and that could be related to lower snow cover in late Spring around the Arctic generating inland warming (maybe not for 2018?)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-arctic-warming-could-have-steered-hurricane-florence-towards-the-us

Klondike Kat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 142
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #385 on: September 19, 2018, 02:30:05 PM »
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies

I find this highly speculative.  Atlantic hurricane intensity has not increased over the past century, so it seems that his forecast is on rather shaky ground.  Thus far, there has been no indication that major hurricanes are traveling further north.  Recent rainfall increases, due to predicted atmospheric blocking, may have a better chance of occurring. 

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #386 on: September 19, 2018, 04:15:44 PM »
Blair Holloway (@BSHolloway)
9/19/18, 9:03 AM
You can't overstate the magnitude of flooding in NC. Check out the NE Cape Fear River near Burgaw. Looks like it is cresting slightly more than 3 FEET above the record which was set in Floyd. That is really something. #Florence #ncwx
https://twitter.com/bsholloway/status/1042398835404926977
Image below.

"NEW: Thread of before & after imagery from inland North Carolina where devastating flooding is ongoing. First, Hanceys Store, NC where inundated farms & homes remain."
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1042245754671120384
Several GIFs comparing before, and during, flooding.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bluesky

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #387 on: September 19, 2018, 05:28:28 PM »
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies

I find this highly speculative.  Atlantic hurricane intensity has not increased over the past century, so it seems that his forecast is on rather shaky ground.  Thus far, there has been no indication that major hurricanes are traveling further north.  Recent rainfall increases, due to predicted atmospheric blocking, may have a better chance of occurring.

Kerry Emanuel is considered as expert in his field (hurricanes) I think he has more than 30 years of research in this field, you can look at his researchgate profile:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kerry_Emanuel

You can also have a look at my post "Reply #350 on: September 13, 2018, 10:27:38 PM" on the same hurricane season 2018 thread, and you will be able to watch Kerry Emanuel presentation at the American Meteorological Society, his research tends to prove that effectively the path of hurricane is migrating up North in the Northern hemisphere and down South in the Southern, well in hand with warmer sea surface temperature. At the end of last year, there were 3 research papers from 3 unrelated research teams who issued papers on the higher rainfall intensity from Harvey and the impact of climate change on the odds of this event. It is quite easy to find these papers on google scholar.


Additional, last year hurricane Ophelia was the first hurricane so much up North East in the Atlantic, mainly due to exceptional sea surface temperature allowing the cyclone to keep its tropical hurricane status in an area where there has not been tropical storm before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_%282017%29

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.813
"During September 2017, the region of observed SSTs with temperatures >26.5°C extended slightly further north relative to the 1993–2015 climatology, and positive SST anomalies were recorded across the eastern tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea (Figure 4c). Indeed, during September 2017, SSTs in the northern Caribbean approached 30°C (Figure 4e), which, when combined with favourable remote forcing from the tropical Pacific, could favour the development and intensification of tropical cyclones (e.g., Vecchi and Soden, 2007)"




According to a NASA study, the very active 2017 hurricane seasons was driven by positive sea surface temperature anomaly, contrary to 2005 and 2010 (very active but with few landfall in the US) which were more driven by favourable atmospheric conditions.


also in:
"The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic"
MAOFENG LIU et al, April 2017
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1
the paper results shows a trend of moving up North, whether in North West or North East Atlantic of the transition from tropical storm to extra tropical storm, with climate change going forward



ABSTRACT
This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) oftropicalcyclones(TCs)intheNorthAtlantic,withanewlydevelopedglobalclimatemodel:theForecastOriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic.


Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #388 on: September 19, 2018, 06:28:01 PM »
North Carolina is still closed, almost a week after Hurricane Florence made landfall.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/19/18, 12:00 PM
Here's a look at road closures (currently 850), including major routes such as I-95 and I-40. Travel is still not advised to these regions due to rivers that haven't crested, debris, downed power lines and more. For info. on routes, visit drivenc.gov. #FlorenceNC
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1042443357102985216
Image below.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2018, 06:37:05 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3366
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 315
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #389 on: September 20, 2018, 01:01:38 PM »
More technical data from the most powerful man in the world:

“This is a tough hurricane, one of the wettest we have ever seen from the standpoint of water. Rarely have we had an experience like it and it is certainly not good."

The President, during a visit to the Carolinas, told a victim of the hurricane "at least you got a nice boat out of it" when the homeowner explained that one had washed up in his backyard.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/donald-trump-mercilessly-mocked-for-saying-hurricane-florence-is-one-of-the-wettest-from-the-a3940591.html
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

ritter

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 516
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #390 on: September 20, 2018, 05:45:55 PM »
More technical data from the most powerful man in the world:
I'm embarrassed every time he opens his mouth or twitter account. Truly cringe worthy.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3366
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 315
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #391 on: September 21, 2018, 10:23:46 AM »
Another typhoon for the Pacific
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #392 on: September 22, 2018, 07:38:57 PM »
Severe tornado in Ottawa, Canada.  Grid damage “worse than 1998 ice storm.”

'It looks like a war scene': Ottawa mayor warns it will take days to restore power after tornado
Quote
Bryce Conrad, president of the Hydro Ottawa, said the storm was "devastating" to the electrical infrastructure, and damage to the grid is even worse than what it sustained from the 1998 ice storm.

"In terms of the magnitude of the damage to our infrastructure — it's bad," Conrad said.

With the Merivale substation out of service, roughly half of the necessary megawatts the city needs to keep the lights on is out of commission. ...

"That station has been hard hit. It's down. It is being assessed. It will take multiple days to restore that station," Conrad said, asking customers to be patient while crews work round the clock.

"When that station comes back on line, power will flow. In the meantime we're trying to redirect power to try to restore power where we can but that transformer station is the problem for us at the moment — this is a multi-day outage." ...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-storm-hydro-war-scene-1.4834710
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #393 on: September 22, 2018, 07:54:56 PM »
Along With Flooding, Hurricane Florence Unleashes Toxic Coal Ash
Quote
Coal ash sites at the Duke Energy H.F. Lee plant in Goldsboro, North Carolina, are actively spilling coal ash into the nearby Neuse River. On Wednesday, during a canoe patrol of the flooded area by Waterkeeper groups and Earthjustice attorney Pete Harrison, the group spotted large amounts of floodwater washing coal ash downstream, as well as large swaths of floating coal ash in stagnant areas. The unprotected berm meant to hold the ash in place was eroding away in dozens of locations.

Together, the three Lee coal ash basins hold about 1 million tons of toxic ash that contains heavy metals like arsenic and lead. And they are now completely under water.

But they’re not the only coal ash sites failing amid the storm. On Friday, floodwaters breached an earthen dam holding back Sutton Lake, a former cooling reservoir at another Duke Energy site, the L.V. Sutton Power Station in Wilmington, North Carolina. Waters from the lake flooded one of three adjacent coal ash lagoons, and riverkeepers are now seeing coal ash in the nearby Cape Fear River. On Thursday, the company had activated a high-level emergency alert after floodwaters from the river overtopped the lake’s earthen dam. And a coal ash landfill under construction at the Sutton plant ruptured last week, spilling enough ash to fill 180 dump trucks. ...
https://earthjustice.org/blog/2018-september/along-with-flooding-hurricane-florence-unleashes-toxic-coal-ash

Image: Coal ash leaks from a breached pond at the L.V. Sutton Power Station outside Wilmington, North Carolina.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #394 on: September 23, 2018, 02:54:34 AM »
Solar Energy Largely Unscathed by Hurricane Florence’s Wind and Rain
In North Carolina, the #2 solar state, Florence was the first extreme weather test for much of its renewable energy
Quote
Faced with Hurricane Florence's powerful winds and record rainfall, North Carolina's solar farms held up with only minimal damage while other parts of the electricity system failed, an outcome that solar advocates hope will help to steer the broader energy debate.

North Carolina has more solar power than any state other than California, much of it built in the two years since Hurricane Matthew hit the region. Before last week, the state hadn't seen how its growing solar developments—providing about 4.6 percent of the state's electricity—would fare in the face of a hurricane. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20092018/hurricane-florence-solar-panel-energy-resilience-extreme-weather-damage-wind-flooding

(Cross-posted to Renewables thread.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #395 on: September 23, 2018, 02:17:13 PM »
More Florence aftermath.  Coastal rivers rising again due to inland flooding making its way downstream, long after the storm surge that occurred with the hurricane’s arrival.

Cape Fear River in Wilmington is forecast to match the record of 8.2 feet which was set recently by Florence's landfall and subsequent storm surge. Looks like at least 3 near-record high tides that will likely flood portions of downtown Wilmington.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1043572318608535553
Image below.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2018, 02:23:57 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Paddy

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 430
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #396 on: September 23, 2018, 03:25:15 PM »
The death toll in the Phillipines from super typhoon mangkhut, meanwhile, is at 155 and climbing  https://www.dailysabah.com/asia/2018/09/23/155-dead-after-typhoon-mangkhut-landslides-in-philippines

A very different pattern of damage to Florence; Mangkhut caused less flooding, but a lot more direct wind damage and landslides.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #397 on: September 23, 2018, 08:00:12 PM »
Looks like another supertyphoon is developing in Asia.

Aluminium

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 124
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #398 on: September 24, 2018, 02:44:27 PM »
Subtropical storm Leslie appears. Six subtropical storms formed in the Atlantic Ocean this year.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 12894
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #399 on: September 24, 2018, 10:16:59 PM »
Sept 24
Hurricane Florence is about to flood Georgetown, South Carolina
Quote
Authorities in Georgetown County, South Carolina, are urging thousands of people to evacuate ahead of historic flooding in an area where multiple swollen rivers converge.

The county escaped the brunt of Hurricane Florence's wind, but it sits at the mouths of the Waccamaw, Great Pee Dee and Sampit rivers.  Parts of Georgetown County will see at least 10 feet of flooding, forecasters say. Key words: at least. The flooding is expected to begin Tuesday and will last through the weekend.
...
The Great Pee Dee and the larger Waccamaw River have already swollen to record levels upstream -- as demonstrated by the flooding 40 miles north in and around Conway, where the Waccamaw is still rising -- and that water is now traveling downstream at historic levels.  There is no benchmark for comparison, not even the destruction wrought by Hurricane Matthew last year, Hemingway said.
...
The rainfall that Florence dumped on North Carolina has been crawling downriver for more than two weeks. It's now set to inundate the homes and businesses belonging to Georgetown County's more than 61,000 people -- almost 8,000 of whom are being urged to evacuate.

A significant portion of the city is expected to be underwater.

Critical infrastructure is already being prepared and hardened. Along Highway 17, which connects Georgetown to the nearby South Carolina coast and its beaches, flood barriers are being erected.  Officials worry that the flooding could wash away the portion of the highway that links the bridges spanning the Great Pee Dee and Waccamaw rivers. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/24/us/florence-georgetown-flooding-wxc/index.html
« Last Edit: September 24, 2018, 10:22:11 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.