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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #450 on: October 10, 2018, 06:00:02 PM »
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #451 on: October 10, 2018, 06:06:43 PM »



https://www.weather.gov/tae/coastalfloodmonitor

Apalachicola: Only Hurricane Dennis of 2005 (a 6.43’ storm tide) brought higher water levels. NHC is predicting a storm surge as high as 14 feet for this portion of the coast.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee says it has issued its first-ever “extreme wind warning”. This means wind gusts in excess of 130 MPH are expected.

“Shelter in place IMMEDIATELY,” the agency warned.

https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1050043265855164417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1050043265855164417&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2Flive%2F2018%2Foct%2F10%2Fhurricane-michael-latest-live-news-updates-florida-evacuations-storm-

Sustained winds now reaching 150mph, according to another update from the National Hurricane Center. (7 more miles to Cat 5)

Quote
... The town of Mexico Beach, Florida has lost power, its mayor said.

The town of 1,200 people is now seeing sustained winds of 40-50mph with gusts over 60mph, Mayor Al Cathey told CNN.

“It certainly is deteriorating rapidly here,” he said.

Out of 1,200 residents, 280 are still in town and did not evacuate, Cathey said.

“Not everyone left. We’re just hoping for the best here,” he said.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 06:39:34 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #452 on: October 10, 2018, 06:29:22 PM »
Video posted by meteorologist Marc Weinberg shows a newly constructed building collapsing in heavy wind in Panama City Beach.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1050049977744003072

New construction just collapsed in front of me in Panama City Beach ... It is going bad fast!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #453 on: October 10, 2018, 06:35:18 PM »
Short video from inside the cockpit of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye of Hurricane Michael, just moments ago.

Will Simmons (@wrsimmons)
10/10/18, 11:59 AM
On our 6th pass through the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Michael, we @53rdWRS had daylight to witness what has been greatly intensifying over the past few days. Life-threatening effects are imminent along parts of the Florida panhandle. @NHC_Atlantic will have the latest.
https://twitter.com/wrsimmons/status/1050053165566058497
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #454 on: October 10, 2018, 06:45:44 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #455 on: October 10, 2018, 06:49:03 PM »
Mike Dross (@MikeWDross)
10/10/18, 12:38 PM
Latest corrected Dropsonde is 919 mb. This will be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit. This is likely a CAT5
https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/1050063108826390530

Eric Fisher (@ericfisher)
10/10/18, 12:42 PM
919mb is lower than Katrina. Bottom line this is an upper echelon devastating hurricane

Edit:
Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers)
10/10/18, 12:38 PM
Center dropsonde at 11 AM, remarkably, implies a sub-920mb pressure, around 919mb. STILL FALLING. #Michael all but certain to be in the upper echelon of US landfall intensities now.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1050063020087500802
Data image at the link.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #456 on: October 10, 2018, 06:50:57 PM »
Florida had its warmest September on record last month, and this helped heat up the eastern Gulf 1 – 2°C (2 – 4°F) above average.


https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=25
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #457 on: October 10, 2018, 06:55:59 PM »
India Met. Dept. (@Indiametdept)
10/10/18, 12:36 PM
Very severe cyclonic storm ‘TITLI’ is very likely to intensify slightly further during next 06 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts close to Gopalpur around morning of 11th October. 2/2
https://twitter.com/indiametdept/status/1050062507438628864
Images below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #458 on: October 10, 2018, 06:58:50 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
10/10/18, 12:56 PM
NHC Update, 1pm:
Hurricane Michael's central pressure is down to 919mb, more intense than Andrew, Katrina, and Maria.
Since 1851, the only stronger U.S. landfalls were "Labor Day" (1935) and Camille (1969).
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050067505069330433
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #459 on: October 10, 2018, 07:03:59 PM »
Quote
FEMA Administrator Brock Long and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen briefed Donald Trump on the hurricane at the White House.

“This started out very innocently a week ago. This was a small storm,” Trump said. “It grew into a monster.”

Long told the president that structures built before 2001 are not designed to handle the storm’s 145mph winds, meaning there will be “a lot of devastation along the coast structurally.” Extended power outages are expected.

Trump marveled at the size and strength of the storm, which is the most intense to strike the area since 1851.

The fast movement of the storm meant that “citizens have less time to prepare or heed the warnings,” Long said. “We are concerned that many citizens chose not to heed those warnings, but we’re prepared with search and rescue teams.”

Trump acknowledged that poverty in the area has held back evacuation efforts. “It’s not so easy for some of these people to leave. Some of the areas are very poor,” he said. “A lot of people are very poor...And it’s very tough for them to leave.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2018/oct/10/hurricane-michael-latest-live-news-updates-florida-evacuations-storm-
Quote
Donald Trump says he will likely go forward with a campaign rally planned for Wednesday night in Pennsylvania despite the storm.
Quote
“There are thousands of people already lined up, and probably we’ll do that tonight,” Trump said in a White House briefing when asked if he would cancel the rally planned in Erie, Pennsylvania. “You have so many people already there, and it’s sort of not fair to them.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #460 on: October 10, 2018, 07:24:03 PM »


Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #447 on: Today at 04:22:41 PM »
Quote
The storm after the storm.....FEMA told contractors to lowball estimates.
Well of course under this admistration. If you can't do anything about climate you can't do anything about the weather. 
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #461 on: October 10, 2018, 07:25:52 PM »
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ?Anyway, nobody needs a politician to do something about it, just stop travelling, stop driving a car, stop going to the supermarket. You don't need a politician to do that. You only need yourself.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #462 on: October 10, 2018, 07:26:28 PM »
Quote
There are now 77,874 87,000 92,000 households without power, according to an outage map from Gulf Power.

The biggest outages are in the area around Panama City, with more than 73,000 customers with electricity out.

There are also outages in the areas around Pensacola and Destin, with power expected to go out for thousands more as the storm hits.
https://outagemap.gulfpower.com/external/default.html

Living in the Past ...
Quote
Pastor Thomas, 48, has spent his whole life in Panama City, and he said he remembered Hurricane Eloise, which passed near here in 1975 and caused millions of dollars in damage. But he said that Panama City had mostly been safe in his lifetime.

So he, like so many thousands on the Panhandle, had decided to ride it out.

“I believe from what I’ve seen in the past, we’re going to be O.K.,” he said. “I’m thinking God’s going to take us through it.”
Quote
Reply on Twitter: ... Pastor Thomas,  If you want to die, that's your business.  But if you did not urge your flock to seek safety away from the storm, you had better ask for forgiveness from your god before the storm takes you.  Ignorance is no excuse.

I'm sorry if this sounds cold hearted. But people who wield an authority over others have a duty to lead them to safety.  This guy, by choosing to stay behind, is doing the exact opposite.  And it makes me angry.
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Neven

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #463 on: October 10, 2018, 07:37:31 PM »
Stay safe, everyone in Florida!
Compare, compare, compare

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #464 on: October 10, 2018, 07:44:24 PM »
Eyewall of Hurricane Michael Is Coming Ashore on Florida Panhandle, Life-Threatening Storm Surge, Catastrophic Winds Imminent

Hurricane Michael has made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, the National Hurricane Center says.

The storm is still intensifying as it makes landfall. It now carries sustained winds of 155 mph.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/101737.shtml

An extreme wind warning has been issued until 2:15 p.m. EDT for southern Jackson, Gulf, Bay, Calhoun, Liberty and southeastern Washington counties where winds in excess of 130 mph are moving onshore. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Treat this warning as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter, advises the National Weather Service

Tyndall Airforce Base, near Panama City, measured a wind gust to 129 mph Wednesday afternoon and a wind gust to 106 mph was reported at Port St. Joe early.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 07:50:05 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #465 on: October 10, 2018, 07:54:26 PM »
NHC 1 PM:  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

10/10/18, 1:48 PM
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 155mph in #HurricaneMichael, making it just 2mph shy of Category 5 strength at landfall.
https://twitter.com/theweatherboy/status/1050080766816702465
Radar/sat GIF at the link. (Landfall)
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #466 on: October 10, 2018, 08:01:38 PM »
How fast is this monster of our own creation moving?

The wind speed is very important but a very slow hurricane has more time to loosen up infrastructure, trees and land. The longer the exposure to high speed winds the more damage. If the hurricane is strong but fast there is a lot less damage.

Does the Saffir Simpson scale take into account translation speed?
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Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #467 on: October 10, 2018, 08:02:00 PM »
Quote
It now carries sustained winds of 155 mph.

That's actually faster than I've ever travelled on land (only done 125mph). Those winds are like some German ICE speeds, here in Northern Europe we do not usually have trains going that fast.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #468 on: October 10, 2018, 08:28:39 PM »
I'd heard that > a Million will be without power. No power - No fuel - no food purchases.

It's not that bad, yet:

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #469 on: October 10, 2018, 08:29:36 PM »
And those winds won’t just disappear overnight as the storm crosses North Carolina.

Courtesy of weatherbell 10m winds gusts at 8pm Thursday. Yes there will likely be wind damage across the Triangle. #Michael
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1050086929616769025
Image below.

Wilmington, NC (on the coast):

New Hanover County (@NewHanoverCo)
10/10/18, 1:28 PM
Updates from #NHCgov abt #HurricaneMichael: lnks.gd/2/8HqHqq
- 2-5 in. of rain expected
- 26 mph sustained winds Thurs w/ gusts of 38 mph
- Power outages may occur, so be prepared w/ food, water & meds for 2-3 days
- County plans to operate normal business hours Thursday
https://twitter.com/newhanoverco/status/1050075654413266945
Video at the link.
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Sam

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #470 on: October 10, 2018, 08:50:50 PM »
How fast is this monster of our own creation moving?

The wind speed is very important but a very slow hurricane has more time to loosen up infrastructure, trees and land. The longer the exposure to high speed winds the more damage. If the hurricane is strong but fast there is a lot less damage.

Does the Saffir Simpson scale take into account translation speed?

It is moving quickly.

And no, the Saffir-Simpson Scale does not consider the size or translational speed of the hurricane. It solely considers the peak wind speed. It used to also consider central low pressure and storm surge. Neither of those are criteria either.

Michael has a devestating storm surge for the area around Panama City. One of the last drop sonds showed a central low pressure of 919 mb. <920 used to be Cat 5. It also shows sustained winds of 155 mph. >157 mph defines Cat 5 (formerly >156).

Accordingly, Michael is as intense as a storm can get and not be a Cat 5.

As you possibly suggest, it could be worse if the storm were traveling more slowly, or if it was broader.

And those should probably be criteria in assessing the storm character.

Likewise, with warming oceans, even bigger badder storms are now possible. The Safire-Simpson scale is reputedly based on damage. The idea is that Cat 5 storms destroy everything, so there is no need for a Cat 6.

However, if you look at the peak sustained wind speed criteria, the underlying math (original scale) looks something like this...

Cat 1. 74-95 mph
Cat 2. 96-110
Cat 3. 111-131
Cat 4. 131-155
Cat 5. 156-open ended

From category 2 through 5 there is an apparent rule that each Category encompasses a band 5 mph broader that the preceding band with Category 1 being different and broader. So rather than actually being based on damage as purported, the design appears to be mathematical in origin.  Extending that, it might instead look like this (with Cat 0a included for historical reasons).

Cat 0a. 74-80 mph
Cat 0b. 81-85
Cat 1. 86-95
Cat 2. 96-110
Cat 3. 111-130
Cat 4. 131-155
Cat 5. 156-185
Cat 6. 186-220
Cat 7. 221-260

Hurricane Allen with 190 mph winds in 1980 was arguably a Category 6 storm.

Other formulations based on other criteria (e.g. Power, scale, rain, surge, duration) might be more useful. And others have been proposed - e.g.

https://medium.com/@pagenotes/evolving-the-saffir-simpson-hurricane-categories-d19d5004d637

And the more useful Dvorak scale.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

There tends to be some proportionality between Category and size of a storm. That alone should be reason enough to define at least a Category 6. And there seems to be no reason not to generalize the definition. Higher categories may not ever be possible on Earth. However, as we look to other planets, it would be useful to have a uniform system for evaluating such things.

Sam
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 09:00:43 PM by Sam »

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #471 on: October 10, 2018, 09:13:04 PM »
This was posted when Michael was still a Cat 3 ...

Quote
The Saffir-Simpson wind scale is an imperfect ranking of a hurricane’s storm surge threat, since it does not take into account the size of the storm and over how large an area the storm’s strong winds are blowing. At 5 am EDT Wednesday, Michael was an average-sized hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds that extended out up to 185 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds that extended out 45 miles from the center. If we sum up the total energy of this wind field, we come with an Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 42 Terajoules, according to RMS Hwind. At this level of wind energy, Michael will be able to generate a storm surge characteristic of a typical of a Category 3 or 4 storm.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-88-4-513

For comparison, here are the peak IKE vales of some historic storms at landfall:

Sandy, 2012: 330
Ivan, 2004: 122
Irma, 2017: 118
Ike, 2008: 118
Katrina, 2005: 116
Rita, 2005: 97
Maria, 2017: 78
Frances, 2004: 70
Matthew, 2016: 45
Michael, 2018: 42
Dennis, 2015: 42
Harvey, 2017: 27
Andrew, 1992: 17
Charley, 2004: 10
Note: Andrew at Cat 5 was only 17

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Potentially-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Michael-Nearing-Landfall-Florida-Panhandle
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 09:18:09 PM by vox_mundi »
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Paddy

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #472 on: October 10, 2018, 09:38:33 PM »
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ?Anyway, nobody needs a politician to do something about it, just stop travelling, stop driving a car, stop going to the supermarket. You don't need a politician to do that. You only need yourself.

Eh, the way we vote also has power, since gvts have a lot of power to alter emissions, in one direction or the other. Voting in an administration of climate change denialists was hardly helpful, especially with all the push for more coal mining, more oil drilling etc.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #473 on: October 10, 2018, 11:27:51 PM »
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ? [...]
They voted Trump despite climate change. That is, they gave the finger to climate change.
Some more storms and storm surges down the years and they might learn that climate science deniers should not be voted into politics.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #474 on: October 10, 2018, 11:55:57 PM »
Michael shuts over a third of U.S. Gulf of Mexico natgas output   
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1MK1MA

... A week ago, drillers were pulling about 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas out of the offshore Gulf of Mexico. On Tuesday, that was down to just 2.2 bcfd, according to the Refinitiv data.

One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to fuel about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

In addition to the reduction in gas supplies, nearly 40 percent of daily crude oil production was also lost from offshore Gulf wells because of platform evacuations and shut-ins ahead of Hurricane Michael.
___________________________

Photos: What Hurricane Michael’s destruction looks like on the ground 
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/10/10/17961782/hurricane-michael-photos-florida-panhandle

... It looks like a tornado hit some of these areas 
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1050094351790034944

Downtown Panama City proper got hit way harder than Panama City Beach. Not shocked as it was hit by the right eyewall. This is catastrophic damage here.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1050109837596594176
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 12:18:51 AM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #475 on: October 11, 2018, 12:18:29 AM »
Hurricane Michael Videos Show Devastation in Mexico Beach
http://time.com/5421134/hurricane-michael-mexico-beach-storm-videos/


Hurricane Michael is a monster storm and an unnatural disaster
Quote
Recovery from Michael is likely to be a painfully slow process. The Panhandle is the most impoverished region of Florida, and this kind of a storm would be difficult to overcome even for wealthy communities. Calhoun County, just inland of where Michael made landfall, is the lowest-income county in the state, with a median household income of less than $32,000 per year. As we saw during last month’s Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas, it’s likely that thousands of people couldn’t even afford to evacuate.
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-michael-is-a-monster-storm-and-an-unnatural-disaster/
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #476 on: October 11, 2018, 12:26:51 AM »
NEW VIDEO: Utter devastation in Panama City, FL after #Michael. Video by Gary Schmitt / LSM

https://twitter.com/WCYB_Ricky/status/1050146948668379137
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #477 on: October 11, 2018, 12:42:59 AM »
Yikes!
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #478 on: October 11, 2018, 02:30:52 AM »
“Before and After: Structures completely gone in Mexico Beach, FL. #HurricaneMichael #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050157608328486912

“Storm surge flooding this afternoon at St George Island... video from Mandi Jackson”
https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/1050154215681744896

“Before and after from Mexico Beach, FL. Notice structure in blue totally gone in after image. Put together through videos on this FB page. #HurricaneMichael #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050155122553225219

“Michael's sustained winds are still 100 mph -- 5 hours after landfall.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050167872616566784
NHC text image at the link.

“Peoples First On 23rd street in Panama City, Everett and Jenks Middle Schools. Such damage.”
https://twitter.com/usafccf/status/1050139034339762176
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 03:02:23 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sleepy

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #479 on: October 11, 2018, 07:36:38 AM »
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ? [...]
They voted Trump despite climate change. That is, they gave the finger to climate change.
Some more storms and storm surges down the years and they might learn that climate science deniers should not be voted into politics.
The overly positive will drown in their own words.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #480 on: October 11, 2018, 10:57:49 AM »
We're not quite up to Terry's 1 million post Michael power outages yet:

https://poweroutage.us/area/region/south%20east
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #481 on: October 11, 2018, 05:27:48 PM »
Images & Videos: Hurricane Michael in Florida: Beach Towns Left in Ruins; Air Force Base Damaged
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-impacts-florida-gulf-coast



DRONE VIDEO: Hurricane Michael devastates Panama City, Florida

Victims of Hurricane Michael voted for climate deniers
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/11/victims-of-hurricane-michael-voted-for-climate-deniers

Quote
Elections have consequences. Denying science has consequences. And we are reaping what we sow.

... . Think of how backwards the situation is – the Florida Department of Environmental Protection has reportedly been banned from using the terms “climate change” and “global warming”. This policy reportedly went into effect when Florida elected a science denier, Rick Scott, to governor.

... Maybe it’s because Rick Scott invests in companies that oppose climate change regulations?

Rick Scott isn’t the only politician from the state of Florida to reject science and diminish climate change. Senator Marco Rubio has as well.

 In the current race for state Governor to succeed Scott, Republican candidate Ron DeSantis is ignoring science.  He recently claimed that climate change is not an issue for states to mitigate.  Say what?

But it’s not just Florida; there are other states getting hit by Hurricane Michael that are also led by climate deniers. For instance, Georgia will be hit by Hurricane Michael.  One of the senators there, David Perdue, congratulated President Trump when he pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord. Georgia’s other Senator, Johnny Isakson also denies the science. He too supported President Trump’s reckless actions.

At the congressional district level, the denial continues.  Republican Representative Barry Loudermilk was pleased when President Trump walked away from the Paris Agreement.

... Elections have consequences and if we as a society want to create a better world and reduce climate change, we have to vote for people who understand science, who believe in factsClimate deniers are making these storms worse by stopping action on climate change. What the hell do we expect to happen when the deniers are writing the laws?
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 09:01:15 PM by vox_mundi »
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Alexander555

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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #483 on: October 11, 2018, 07:47:28 PM »
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ? [...]
They voted Trump despite climate change. That is, they gave the finger to climate change.
Some more storms and storm surges down the years and they might learn that climate science deniers should not be voted into politics.

By than all the democrats (globalists) in New York will be at the bottem of the sea. How much more do they need, a couple dozens of inches.

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #484 on: October 11, 2018, 09:00:50 PM »
The photos emerging are showing the worst hurricane devastation I've seen. We shouldn't need to be reminded that Tor lives somewhere in this region in order to feel compassion for the victims, regardless of who they voted for.
This wasn't a learning experience, this was a catastrophe.

Terry
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 11:04:05 PM by TerryM »

oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #486 on: October 11, 2018, 11:37:54 PM »
Michael induced power outages have now passed the million mark.

There's another 75,000 or so in Virginia as well:

https://poweroutage.us/area/regions
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #487 on: October 11, 2018, 11:52:55 PM »
Jim
I'd just heard about the 1M mark & returned to post when I saw your post.


I don't thing the death toll of 6 is within an order of magnitude of where we'll end up.
I haven't been to Florida in decades, but for some reason this one feels like it's hitting very close to home.
Terry


Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #488 on: October 12, 2018, 12:53:20 AM »
”FEMA has no idea of the likelihood of rescuers finding survivors, or bodies, said spokesman Ignatius Carroll.  "We can't search every pile of rubble."
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town
http://news.trust.org/item/20181011210648-hl58c/


Massive relief and recovery effort unfolding on US 231 S. coming into Panama City.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050458685921775621
Video clip at the link.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #489 on: October 12, 2018, 01:13:51 AM »
Tyndall Air Force Base In Ruins After Michael, Fighter Jets Seen Inside Roofless Hangars

Tyndall Air Force Base took a direct hit from Hurricane Michael, with its eye passing right overhead....

Supposedly, the wind gauge on the base broke after winds hit 135 mph and are now thought to have reached above 150mph or even greater. A reevaluation of meteorological data from many sources could even result in Michael being retroactively reclassified from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5 hurricane.

This Twitter video of a helicopter survey of the base shows just how bad the damage is ...
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/1460410770756992/UzpfSTIwMDk5OTQwMzQwNzA0MToxMDkxMDY3MzY0NDAwMjM2/

Major damage to F-22s. QF-16s and Mu-2s shoved into one another inside one of the base's large and now roofless hangars.

Infrastructure and aircraft damage = North of $ 1 Billion
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #490 on: October 12, 2018, 01:36:18 AM »
Re: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg176617.html#msg176617
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town ....
Quote
... Afterward, [a survivor] sat in the shade and broke down. "I know, but we can rebuild it," a FEMA rescuer said, putting his arm around her.   
Although I feel for the survivors, this is the root of the problem.

Rebuilding, only to have it swept away in 10 or 20 years by rising sea and fiercer storms is not a rational plan.
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #491 on: October 12, 2018, 02:29:14 AM »
Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #492 on: October 12, 2018, 02:55:50 AM »
Tyndall Air Force Base took a direct hit from Hurricane Michael, with its eye passing right overhead....
This Twitter video of a helicopter survey of the base shows just how bad the damage is ...
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/1460410770756992/UzpfSTIwMDk5OTQwMzQwNzA0MToxMDkxMDY3MzY0NDAwMjM2/

Major damage to F-22s. QF-16s and Mu-2s shoved into one another inside one of the base's large and now roofless hangars.

Infrastructure and aircraft damage = North of $ 1 Billion
The damage to the base is catastrophic. In this and other videos the damage seems far above the usual major hurricane damage. I guess luck plays a factor, but this one was a real monster.
On a side note, IMHO these aircraft should have been evacuated ahead of the storm. On the other hand, 3 days before it hit Michael was forecast to be a tropical storm at landfall, and 1 day before it was still a Cat 1, so they probably didn't have enough time to prepare.
I think what feels like a relatively new phenomenon is the ease and suddenness of rapid intensification into a major hurricane, fueled by the warm water which seems to be just about everywhere.

Edit: it seems most aircraft were able to escape to areas unaffected by the storm, but some were  left behind because they were not capable of flight.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 04:05:30 AM by oren »

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #493 on: October 12, 2018, 03:13:22 AM »
Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.


Might be time to consider moving to Utah. ::)
Terry

Sleepy

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #494 on: October 12, 2018, 07:13:02 AM »
Was watching the video in this one:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/officials-worry-hurricane-michael-death-toll-could-rise-crews-struggle-n918936
The video following that one, showed the attached image. An unfit former gas station?
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #495 on: October 12, 2018, 12:58:39 PM »
Subtropical storm Leslie appears.
Resilient hurricane Leslie is still dancing.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #496 on: October 12, 2018, 01:50:52 PM »
The second video in this article has an amazing extended section of winds on the ground during the eyewall.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/drone-footage-hurricane-michael

Video from the hurricane hunter plane:
Michael at landfall. The normal "stadium effect" was more like a cylinder, a straight vertical wall 50K ft high. Saw 175 mph flight level winds, ~155 mph at surface. Entered eyewall at 10K ft, ended up in eye down at 8K! Need another tweet to explain what that felt like… “
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremydehart53d/status/1050529815323975680

The four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months. #HurricaneMichael #Michael
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050348660339412992
Image below.
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #497 on: October 12, 2018, 02:45:38 PM »
The air force hurricane hunter plane had evidence of 140kt surface winds (about 160mph) but it was considered a suspect measurement and was rejected. Based on a combination of factors, including flight level winds, surface pressure of 919 combined with a small eye, satellite measured cloud top heights, ADT values and damage reports, I suspect that the rejected measurement was good.

There's a very good chance that Michael will be reclassified a low end category 5 of 140 knots.

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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #498 on: October 12, 2018, 03:29:17 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1050409595594842113?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Storm Surge:Using available observations and a post-landfall hindcast simulation of SLOSH, the NHC's Storm Surge Unit estimates peak storm surge inundation values of 9-14 ft from Mexico Beach eastward through Apalachee Bay.  Highest surge is estimated near Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe.

Agriculture decimated: With the harvest underway, many farms in South Georgia had their crops ravaged by the storm. "Our worst dreams are being realized," Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black told reporters Thursday morning. Black said 84 chicken houses, estimated to have held more than 2 million chickens, were destroyed.
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-12-hurricane-michael-impacts-southeast-mid-atlantic.html
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Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #499 on: October 12, 2018, 05:22:27 PM »
Latest forecast by NHC. Can Leslie jump into Mediterranean?