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blumenkraft

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #100 on: July 13, 2020, 10:24:13 AM »
Hefaistos, your point is well received. The sun warms the earth. Heureka!

wehappyfew

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #101 on: July 13, 2020, 02:31:55 PM »
Hefaistos,

Your comments do not address the errors I pointed out.

The amount of solar energy impinging upon each square meter of the Earth is ~1360 W/m^2 divided by 4, since the Earth is a sphere.

Until you acknowledge this fact, you will continue to calculate the impact of a Maunder Minimum incorrectly.

anthropocene

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #102 on: July 13, 2020, 02:38:28 PM »
Confirming what wehappyfew has just posted:

Hefastios;  You are confusing irradiance with forcing.

THIS IS SHOWN IN FIGURE 2 OF THE LINK WHICH YOU PROVIDED. On the left-hand side is amplitude of solar irradiance (eye-balling the graph about 1.6 watts/m^2   and on the right hand side is the forcing: 0.25 watts/m^2). Hansen et al have done the conversion for you. It says " Left scale is the energy passing through an area perpendicular to Sun-Earth line. Averaged over Earth's surface the absorbed solar energy is ~240 W/m2, so the amplitude of solar variability is a forcing of ~0.25 W/m2."

 Either you are not understanding what is presented, not reading it all or wilfully cherry-picking quotes from scientific papers to make it look like they support what you say.  (Not for the first time either).

Also Figure 3 provides the GHG forcing (approx. 3 watts/m^2). So approx 12 times the amplitude  of a (unusually large?) solar cycle.

As you say yourself - OHC and surface temperatures are almost irrelevant side-effects ( ;-) ) of what happens at the TOA interface. So why do you complicate the discussion with these points? It could be taken as an attempt at a gish-gallop.

Either accept the points made by wehappyfew (and Hansen et al) or provide evidence to refute it and support your point.
 

 

Hefaistos

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #103 on: July 14, 2020, 10:30:57 AM »
Hefaistos,

Your comments do not address the errors I pointed out.

The amount of solar energy impinging upon each square meter of the Earth is ~1360 W/m^2 divided by 4, since the Earth is a sphere.

Until you acknowledge this fact, you will continue to calculate the impact of a Maunder Minimum incorrectly.

Yes, of course, I was only mentioning the changes in solar irradiance. As you say, WHF, the incoming absorbed solar energy per unit surface area is S(1-a)/4
where a is albedo. On average, albedo is assumed to be around 0.3

The solar constant varies a bit over time, to get even numbers let's have it at S = 1360 W/m^2
The solar radiation at the TOA averaged over the whole surface of the earth = 340 W/m^2
The solar radiation absorbed by the earth’s climate system around 240 W/m^2 (depending on albedo).
The approximate radiation from the earth’s climate system at TOA also equals 240W/m^2 if we have energy balance (steady state). (which we don't, as the EEI is around 1 W/m^2 .

The solar 'constant' (S) varies a bit over time with the 11 year cycle, as seen in the CMIP6 forcing chart, its amplitude is about 1 W/m^2 during strong solar cycles, whereas only half of that during weak cycles.

Secondly, if we take the above figure for the Maunder minimum, it means a change in S with around -0.8 W/m^2 in S as a long term trend change.
At surface, with constant albedo it then adds about -0.14 W/m^2 in as a long term trend change in forcing.
I attach a chart with satellite measurements during 1978-1999. The absolute irradiation levels are much higher in those readings, but for some reason (why?) they have been aligned at the lower level of around 1361. (Also Hansen use the higher values)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 10:39:30 AM by Hefaistos »

kassy

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #104 on: July 14, 2020, 03:20:23 PM »
At surface, with constant albedo

But actually we do not have a constant albedo. There is a year over year decline of ice cover in the mountains, landscape changes in Siberia, declining arctic sea ice and those changes alone will override it.

Also if you think the solar cycle helps us now that means we are in deeper trouble then we thought because of time scales.
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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #105 on: July 14, 2020, 09:10:03 PM »
At surface, with constant albedo

But actually we do not have a constant albedo. There is a year over year decline of ice cover in the mountains, landscape changes in Siberia, declining arctic sea ice and those changes alone will override it.

The decline of which you speak amounts to ~0.2% of the total surface of the Earth.  Granted the change in albedo over that portion is rather large.  How much difference does changing cloud cover constitute?  What about the decrease in forest cover from ~40% to 30% since the dawn of industrialization?  Urban areas have roughly doubled to ~3% of the surface, which their contributing albedo changes. 

Incidentally, research has shown that the albedo has been remarkably constant over time:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014RG000449

Hefaistos

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #106 on: July 16, 2020, 10:30:11 PM »
This is a recent paper estimating TSI, albedo, and OLR

"Measurement of the Earth Radiation Budget at the Top of the Atmosphere—A Review"
by Steven Dewitte and Nicolas Clerbaux,
 Remote Sens. 2017, 9(11), 1143;

"TSI measurements with good stability have been available since 1984. They reveal a variation of the TSI in phase with the 11-year sunspot cycle, with an amplitude of the order of 1 W/m2
. The currently-ending solar cycle 24 has a low amplitude compared to the preceding ones.
The TIM TSI instruments have a different viewing geometry as compared to the classical TSI instruments, which results in a lower absolute value of the measured TSI. Reconciling the classical DIARAD/SOVIM and the new TIM/TCTE instrument, the TSI level at solar minimum is estimated to be 1362.0 +/− 0.9 W/m2
.
The ERB measurements have sufficient stability to track the temporal variability of the EEI driving climate change, but they can not measure its absolute value with sufficient accuracy. Combining the ERB measurements with independent estimates of the EEI from OHC, we obtain the most likely values of the OLR of 238.0 W/m2
and of the RSF of 101.6 W/m2—corresponding to an albedo of 29.8%
—for the period 2000–2005."

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9111143

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/9/11/1143/htm

morganism

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #107 on: August 19, 2020, 02:19:56 AM »
NASA Researchers Track Slowly Splitting 'Dent' in Earth’s Magnetic Field

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-researchers-track-slowly-splitting-dent-in-earth-s-magnetic-field

" recent observations and forecasts show that the region is expanding westward and continuing to weaken in intensity. It is also splitting – recent data shows the anomaly’s valley, or region of minimum field strength, has split into two lobes, creating additional challenges for satellite missions.

“The observed SAA can be also interpreted as a consequence of weakening dominance of the dipole field in the region,” said Weijia Kuang, a geophysicist and mathematician in Goddard’s Geodesy and Geophysics Laboratory. “More specifically, a localized field with reversed polarity grows strongly in the SAA region, thus making the field intensity very weak, weaker than that of the surrounding regions.”

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #108 on: August 29, 2020, 03:20:35 PM »
As the Earth Energy Imbalance at TOA is less than 1 W/sq.m. this effect is quite substantial.
Mike knows best:

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #109 on: August 29, 2020, 04:04:10 PM »
New research suggests Solar Cycle 25 could be strongest in 50 years
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1775-new-research-suggests-solar-cycle-25-could-be-strongest-in-50-years/
Quote
Obviously, the thing that stands out the most is that they predict a massive cycle, similar to the solar cycles 19, 21 and 22, which were some of the strongest of the modern era of solar observations. The actual SSN they have predicted is 233, twice the size of the previous SC24 and about 50% stronger than the cycle before that one, SC23 (which peaked in around 2001).
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The Walrus

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #110 on: August 31, 2020, 01:35:49 PM »
Did you read the comments and the links to NOAA and SILSO?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #111 on: September 01, 2020, 12:53:11 AM »
Walrus, we are at the tea reading stage of forecasting solar cycles. Anything could happen.
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The Walrus

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #112 on: September 01, 2020, 03:06:56 AM »
Yes, and predictions range from low to high, pretty much the entire gamut.

kassy

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #113 on: September 01, 2020, 01:14:38 PM »
I suggest waiting for data from that cycle 25. 
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The Walrus

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #114 on: September 01, 2020, 02:44:47 PM »
That would be best.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #115 on: September 02, 2020, 12:43:59 PM »
But we won't get that for about a decade.
In the meantime, I like to read tea leaves (I'm impatient). Always remembering how shaky their reliability is.
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Alexander555

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #116 on: September 05, 2020, 10:48:54 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #117 on: September 05, 2020, 11:21:21 PM »
One has to give Valentina Zharkova credit - she does not give up & still manages to get stuff printed.

Her work on the solar cycle and her predictions for a new Maunder Minimum is not accepted as credible by most scientists that study the solar cycle as their profession.
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morganism

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #118 on: September 07, 2020, 07:42:07 PM »
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67860-3
On the correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide





We found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M > 5.6), with a time shift of one day. The significance of such correlation is very high, with probability to be wrong lower than 10–5. The correlation increases with the magnitude threshold of the seismic catalogue. A tentative model explaining such a correlation is also proposed, in terms of the reverse piezoelectric effect induced by the applied electric field related to the proton density.

we demonstrate that it can likely be due to the effect of solar wind, modulating the proton density and hence the electrical potential between the ionosphere and the Earth. Although a quantitative analysis of a particular, specific model for our observations is beyond the scope of this paper, we believe that a possible, likely physical mechanism explaining our statistical observations, is the stress/strain pulse caused by reverse piezoelectric effects. Such pulses would be generated by large electrical discharges channeled in the large faults, due to their high conductivity because of fractured and water saturated fault gauge. The widespread observations of several macroscopic electro-magnetic effects before, or however associated to large earthquakes, support our qualitative model to explain the observed, highly statistically significant, proton density-earthquakes correlation. It is important to note that our hypothesis only implies that the proton density would act as a further, small trigger to cause the fracture on already critically charged faults, thus producing the observed large scale earthquake correlation. Such a small perturbation would add to the main factor producing worldwide seismicity, which is tectonic stress.

morganism

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #119 on: September 07, 2020, 07:57:23 PM »
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flux_tube

When do solar erupting hot magnetic flux ropes form?
A. Nindos, S. Patsourakos, A. Vourlidas, X. Cheng, J. Zhang
We investigate the formation times of eruptive magnetic flux ropes relative to the onset of solar eruptions, which is important for constraining models of coronal mass ejection (CME) initiation. We inspected uninterrupted sequences of 131 Å images that spanned more than eight hours and were obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to identify the formation times of hot flux ropes that erupted in CMEs from locations close to the limb. The appearance of the flux ropes as well as their evolution toward eruptions were determined using morphological criteria. Two-thirds (20/30) of the flux ropes were formed well before the onset of the eruption (from 51 minutes to more than eight hours), and their formation was associated with the occurrence of a confined flare. We also found four events with preexisting hot flux ropes whose formations occurred a matter of minutes (from three to 39) prior to the eruptions without any association with distinct confined flare activity. Six flux ropes were formed once the eruptions were underway. However, in three of them, prominence material could be seen in 131 Å images, which may indicate the presence of preexisting flux ropes that were not hot. The formation patterns of the last three groups of hot flux ropes did not show significant differences. For the whole population of events, the mean and median values of the time difference between the onset of the eruptive flare and the appearance of the hot flux rope were 151 and 98 minutes, respectively. Our results provide, on average, indirect support for CME models that involve preexisting flux ropes; on the other hand, for a third of the events, models in which the ejected flux rope is formed during the eruption appear more appropriate.
Comments:   A&A, in press
Subjects:   Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)
Cite as:   arXiv:2008.04380 [astro-ph.SR]
    (or arXiv:2008.04380v1 [astro-ph.SR] for this version)

Hefaistos

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #120 on: September 16, 2020, 07:47:53 AM »
A nice, interactive page where you can follow the progression of SC25, from NOAA. Including the official forecast for the strength and duration of SC25.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #121 on: September 16, 2020, 12:12:43 PM »
Hope Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe get good observations of this solar cycle, and that Aditya-L1 gets a shot at it.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 12:30:36 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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kassy

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #122 on: September 18, 2020, 05:19:34 PM »
Sea ice Triggered the Little Ice Age, Finds a New Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-sea-ice-triggered-age.html


The map shows Greenland and adjacent ocean currents. Colored circles show where some of the sediment cores used in the study were obtained from the seafloor. The small historical map from the beginning of the 20th century shows the distribution of Storis, or sea ice from the Arctic Ocean, which flows down the east coast of Greenland. The graphs show the reconstructed time series of changes in the occurrence of sea ice and polar waters in the past. The colors of the curves correspond to the locations on the map. The blue shading represents the period of increased sea ice in the 1300s.

A new study finds a trigger for the Little Ice Age that cooled Europe from the 1300s through mid-1800s, and supports surprising model results suggesting that under the right conditions sudden climate changes can occur spontaneously, without external forcing.

...

Martin W. Miles et al, Evidence for extreme export of Arctic sea ice leading the abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/38/eaba4320

Click on the link for the full text.

Also see post #71 up above for more hints that solar activity is not related to the events.
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Alexander555

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #123 on: September 21, 2020, 09:27:54 AM »
Lets assume that Valentina is right, that we enter a longer periode of lower solar activity. What would the impact be on rainfall ?

Hefaistos

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #124 on: September 21, 2020, 01:41:06 PM »
Lets assume that Valentina is right, that we enter a longer periode of lower solar activity. What would the impact be on rainfall ?

Whether Valentina is right or not in her somewhat speculative forecasts I don't know.

What I know, is that there seems to be a positive relationship between solar TSI and cloudiness. Thus, less TSI in a solar minimum (like now) means less clouds and presumably less rain. That's the global averages.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 01:57:48 PM by Hefaistos »

Alexander555

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #125 on: September 21, 2020, 09:46:26 PM »
Yes it is speculative. But that 11 year cycle is pretty constant. And Valentina is talking about that 350 to 400 year cycle, that comes to an end somewhere now. And why would that not be constant ? Something is driving that 11 year cycle up and down, again and again and again.....Last cycle already had low numbers of sunspots. And now we have already many days with no sunspots at all. Something that don't happens that much. So the sun is not very active at all. I agree that there could be less rainfall if these low numbers would continue. Warm air can hold more moisture, so if it cools a little. But probably that will take many years, for the oceans to adjust.  And the same time we have been building mega cities and cutting down rainforests. That's probably the rain we will get less, compared with 20 or 30 years ago. I have a feeling we are going to hear more about it in the next years. Global warming vs solar cooling.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #126 on: September 25, 2020, 10:00:44 PM »
Interesting article about rapid sea ice transport leading to a cool period. That may not nix the volcanism theory if volcanic events could have brought on a stronger polar vortex by initiating polar cooling.

Back to the solar cycle. NASA has a new post about cycle 25 which is forecast to be just about the same as the last cycle.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cycle-25-look-like-sun-prediction-model

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #127 on: December 10, 2020, 01:08:11 PM »
Our Sun Has Entered a New Cycle, And It Could Be One of The Strongest Ever Recorded
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-sunspot-cycle-could-be-one-of-the-strongest-we-ve-ever-recorded
Quote
The Sun may be in for a very busy time. According to new predictions, the next maximum in its activity cycles could be the one of the strongest we've seen.
This is in direct contradiction to the official solar weather forecast from NASA and the NOAA, but if it bears out, it could confirm a theory about solar activity cycles that scientists have been working on for years.
A record sunspot number should mean record temperatures here on Earth.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #128 on: December 10, 2020, 01:49:17 PM »
So much for Valentina Zharkova's "Grand Solar Minimum".

Her work has been heavily criticised in the past, containing basic errors.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2209895-journal-criticised-for-study-claiming-sun-is-causing-global-warming/

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #129 on: December 10, 2020, 02:23:13 PM »
New Sunspot Cycle Could Be One of the Strongest On Record, New Research predicts
https://phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.html

In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began.

In a new article published in Solar Physics, the research team predicts that Sunspot Cycle 25 will peak with a maximum sunspot number somewhere between approximately 210 and 260, which would put the new cycle in the company of the top few ever observed.

The cycle that just ended, Sunspot Cycle 24, peaked with a sunspot number of 116, and the consensus forecast from a panel of experts convened by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that Sunspot Cycle 25 will be similarly weak. The panel predicts a peak sunspot number of 115.

If the new NCAR-led forecast is borne out, it would lend support to the research team's unorthodox theory—detailed in a series of papers published over the last decade—that the Sun has overlapping 22-year magnetic cycles that interact to produce the well-known, approximately 11-year sunspot cycle as a byproduct. The 22-year cycles repeat like clockwork and could be a key to finally making accurate predictions of the timing and nature of sunspot cycles, as well as many of the effects they produce, according to the study's authors.

Scott W. McIntosh et al, Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude, Solar Physics (2020)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y




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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #130 on: December 11, 2020, 09:31:06 AM »
New Sunspot Cycle Could Be One of the Strongest On Record, New Research predicts
https://phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.html

In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began.



What of the 'Climate Change Deniers' relying on a 'Maunder Like Minimum' to cool the Planet?

Over 2 decades of 'Fret Ye Not's' from them & now?

Will they warn of the 'Warming' an over active Sun must cause (if a min produces the cooling they warn us of?)

As for the rest of us we live in a modern World at risk of CME impacts on both satellites impacted by such & driven currents on the surface frazzling Electrical infrastructure....

We just don't seem to be able to catch a break eh?

Did we upset the Gods or something?
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #131 on: December 11, 2020, 09:51:27 AM »
Grey.
There are no gods.
We don't have a understanding of solar activity sufficient to confidently predict  future activity.
Anyone who does claim  such knowledge is probably pushing bullshite to minimize the future impacts of our unfortunate experiment in atmospherics physics.
Even a real maunder like minimum is only  going to delay the impact by a few decades at most.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/06/what-if-the-sun-went-into-a-new-grand-minimum/
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #132 on: December 11, 2020, 04:34:49 PM »
Hi KiwiGriff!

I thought the article was saying that the newly noted 22 yr magnetic cycle (offset from the 11 yr sunspot cycle?) offered the chance of better prediction of the Solar cycle to come with greater confidence?
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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #133 on: December 11, 2020, 05:14:23 PM »
Not too long ago, there were predictions of a new maunder-like minimum.  Now, this articles predicts "one of the strongest on record."  I am beginning to agree with Kiwi, except for the no God part.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #134 on: December 11, 2020, 05:48:06 PM »
Gray-Wolf:
We only have a dozen full cycles of sunspot observation, only the last couple with modern satellite observations. And solar weather is very complicated. Trying to get patterns from that is tough. It is hard to know if there is something there or if it is just another Super Bowl Indicator or Curse of Tippecanoe.
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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #135 on: December 11, 2020, 06:51:37 PM »
The cool thing about this new research is that we should know by next cycle if they are on the right track or not because the prediction it makes is very different from the consensus one.

Basically they say it is an interference pattern so the length of the previous cycle determines the strength of the next. The internal mechanics are still shady but if it pans out we know where to focus next.

The whole maunder minimum link is an old and overly simple idea.

Quote
The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715

The Maunder Minimum occurred with a much longer period of lower-than-average European temperatures which is likely to have been primarily caused by volcanic activity.

and

The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period.[2] Although it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939.[3] It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries,[4][5][6] but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300[7] to about 1850.[8][9][10]

The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all separated by intervals of slight warming.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #136 on: December 11, 2020, 06:59:16 PM »
Gray-Wolf:
We only have a dozen full cycles of sunspot observation, only the last couple with modern satellite observations. And solar weather is very complicated. Trying to get patterns from that is tough. It is hard to know if there is something there or if it is just another Super Bowl Indicator or Curse of Tippecanoe.

We actually have over four centuries of sunspot observations, corresponding to more than 30 cycles.  Some have argued about the accuracy of said data, but it is still relevant.

https://astronomynow.com/2015/08/08/corrected-sunspot-history-suggests-climate-change-not-due-to-natural-solar-trends/

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #137 on: December 11, 2020, 07:30:12 PM »
Odobenus rosmarus, the sunspot "cycle" is actually half a cycle, since each one is the inverse of the one before. Cycle 24 just recently ended, so that makes twelve "full" cycles.
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kassy

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #138 on: December 12, 2020, 06:39:35 PM »
We still count the 11 year cycles but if the NCAR prediction pans out we have to rework that since it is two interfering 22 year cycles. Anyway we won´t have to wait that long since it is the current cycle.

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