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Neven

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #50 on: December 19, 2018, 10:16:07 PM »
Yes, be careful not too wade too deep into the solar stuff, and end up in climate risk denier territory.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #51 on: December 21, 2018, 10:33:59 AM »
'Tis the solstice.

Winter Solstice 2018 will be at 22:23 hrs Greenwich mean Time (GMT) on Friday, 21 December.

This is the solar cycle that interests me most, apart from the butterfly wings image of the sunspot cycles.

Imagine it is pre-history, and you do not know if this year the sun will start to rise higher in the sky again. Perhaps this time it will get lower and lower in the sky until......

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #52 on: December 21, 2018, 01:21:56 PM »
'Tis the solstice.

Winter Solstice 2018 will be at 22:23 hrs Greenwich mean Time (GMT) on Friday, 21 December.

This is the solar cycle that interests me most, apart from the butterfly wings image of the sunspot cycles.

Imagine it is pre-history, and you do not know if this year the sun will start to rise higher in the sky again. Perhaps this time it will get lower and lower in the sky until......
We probably should pop an extra virgin in the volcano just to be sure. ???
Terry

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #53 on: December 21, 2018, 02:38:34 PM »
Not interested in the dark side of this earth cycle at all, my 5360Wp PV's has produced 0.06kWh so far today and that's pretty much it, it's getting dark(er). A little snow on them for once...
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #54 on: December 21, 2018, 04:00:59 PM »
Not interested in the dark side of this earth cycle at all, my 5360Wp PV's has produced 0.06kWh so far today and that's pretty much it, it's getting dark(er). A little snow on them for once...
Earth Cycle !?

We are in pre-history and you are telling the assembled throng it is not the sun rising and falling at various times of the year but movement of the earth around the sun and inclination of the earth's axis wot's doing it.

The Priest decides, to general acclamation, forget the virgin, it is you that's being thrown into the volcano. Insulting the Sun God is dangerous.

Come to think of it, there are plenty of evangelical churches today where a similar outcome would be likely.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #55 on: December 21, 2018, 09:05:33 PM »
Yet another study using development of the solar polar field strength claims a similar or slightly stronger cycle 25. Open access, just adding Fig 4.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0
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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #56 on: January 23, 2019, 05:12:31 PM »
Debunking the Solar-Cycle/North Atlantic Winter Weather Connection
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.html

Quote
... in a research paper published in Nature Geoscience Monday, Gabriel Chiodo, Jessica Oehrlein and Lorenzo Polvani, scientists at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the School of Engineering at Columbia University and other colleagues present evidence that there is no definite connection between the solar cycle and the NAO.

The research essentially debunks what was considered a "demonstrated link" between the 11-year sun cycle and winter weather over the northern hemisphere and found it is actually, for the most part, a coincidental alignment. With the use of sophisticated computer modeling and extended observations, the new research shows that before 1960 evidence of any correlation simply vanishes.

"What we're saying is, the theory was basically a mirage," said Polvani.


Gabriel Chiodo et al. Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature Geoscience (2019).
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Alexander555

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #57 on: May 03, 2019, 10:30:04 AM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #58 on: May 28, 2019, 07:27:45 PM »
The Sun Follows the Rhythm of the Planets
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/hd-tsf052719.php

Study Corroborates Influence of Planetary Tidal Forces On Solar Activity
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-corroborates-planetary-tidal-solar.html

One of the big questions in solar physics is why the Sun's activity follows a regular cycle of 11 years. Researchers from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), an independent German research institute, now present new findings, indicating that the tidal forces of Venus, Earth and Jupiter influence the solar magnetic field, thus governing the solar cycle. The team of researchers present their findings in the journal Solar Physics

As with the gravitational pull of the Moon causing tides on Earth, planets are able to displace the hot plasma on the sun's surface. Tidal forces are strongest when there is maximum Venus-Earth-Jupiter alignment; a constellation that occurs every 11.07 years. But the effect is too weak to significantly perturb the flow in the solar interior, which is why the temporal coincidence was long neglected. However, the HZDR researchers then found evidence of a potential indirect mechanism that may be able to influence the solar magnetic field via tidal forces: oscillations in the Tayler instability, a physical effect that, from a certain current, can change the behavior of a conductive liquid or of a plasma. Building on this concept, the scientists developed their first model in 2016; they have since advanced this model in their new study to present a more realistic scenario.

In the hot plasma of the sun, the Tayler instability perturbs the flux and the magnetic field, itself reacting very sensitively to tiny forces. A small thrust of energy is enough for the perturbations to oscillate between right-handed and left-handed helicity (the projection of the spin onto the direction of momentum). The momentum required for this may be induced by planetary tidal forces every eleven years—ultimately also setting the rhythm at which the magnetic field reverses the polarity of the sun.

... the scientists systematically compared historical observations of solar activity from the last thousand years with planetary constellations, statistically proving that the two phenomena are linked. "There is an astonishingly high level of concordance: what we see is complete parallelism with the planets over the course of 90 cycles," said Frank Stefani, lead author of the study. "Everything points to a clocked process."

Besides influencing the 11-year cycle, planetary tidal forces may also have other effects on the sun. For example, it is also conceivable that they change the stratification of the plasma in the transition region between the interior radiative zone and the outer convection zone of the sun (the tachocline) in such a way that the magnetic flux can be conducted more easily. Under those conditions, the magnitude of activity cycles could also be changed, as was once the case with the Maunder Minimum, when there was a strong decline in solar activity for a longer phase.

In the long term, a more precise model of the solar dynamo would help scientists to quantify climate-relevant processes such as space weather more effectively, and perhaps even to improve climate predictions one day.



F. Stefani et al. A Model of a Tidally Synchronized Solar Dynamo, Solar Physics (2019)

Quote
... we focus on the 11.07-years alignment periodicity of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, whose persistent synchronization with the solar dynamo is briefly touched upon. The typically emerging dynamo modes are dipolar fields, oscillating with a 22.14-years period or pulsating with a 11.07-years period, but also quadrupolar fields with corresponding periodicities. ...  Phase coherent transitions between dipoles and quadrupoles, which are reminiscent of the observed behavior during the Maunder minimum, can easily be triggered by long-term variations of dynamo parameters, but may also occur spontaneously even for fixed parameters. Further interesting features of the model are the typical second intensity peak and the intermittent appearance of reversed helicities in both hemispheres.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #59 on: May 28, 2019, 07:36:42 PM »
Fascinating!  :o

BTW, Vox Mundi, thanks a lot for a constant stream of very interesting links!

johnm33

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #60 on: May 28, 2019, 11:21:11 PM »
Fascinating!  :o

BTW, Vox Mundi, thanks a lot for a constant stream of very interesting links!
+1

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #61 on: May 29, 2019, 12:10:45 AM »
I always wondered, "Why 11 years?"

This news reminds me of a song I grew up with.  An expanded (and different) version is here:


What I remember:
Twinkle twinkle little star
I don't wonder what you are
Teacher told us yesterday
How you come and go away
And that you are a great big mass
Of all sorts of burning gas
Teacher told us that she recons
Light goes millions of miles a second
So if a great big water spout
Should some day come put you out
We would never know your fate
'Til long after that date
Twinkle twinkle little star
I don't wonder what you are

I'm pretty sure I forgot some verses.  The internet didn't help.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #62 on: May 29, 2019, 07:33:34 AM »
Quote
Should some day come put you out

Growing up with Max und Moritz, i see similarities in morbidity...

johnm33

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #63 on: May 29, 2019, 09:49:02 AM »
"space weather" ignore the source read Nelsons work.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #64 on: May 30, 2019, 06:31:15 PM »
I hope the Eddy Minimum (as it will probably be called) holds off one more solar cycle, so that the Parker Solar Probe can study Solar Cycle 25.
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DrTskoul

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #65 on: July 30, 2019, 10:44:44 AM »